Afleveringen
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Just under a year ago, Turkish President Erdogan won another five years in power in the Turkish presidential election. Last week, however, local election results in Turkey delivered a harsh blow to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Although the gap at the national level wasn’t huge, the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) won about 38 percent of the vote and Erdogan’s AKP garnered approximately 35 percent, in major Turkish cities such as Istanbul and Ankara the gulf was significant. Following disappointing results for the CHP during last year’s general election, this significant defeat, the largest since the AKP's founding in 2001, proved a surprise. To discuss how we should interpret these election results and their implications for Turkish democracy, Asli Aydintaşbaş and Steven Cook join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Steven A. Cook is the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies and Director of the International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of numerous books, including his most recent work, The End of Ambition: America’s Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East, which is set to be released on June 3, 2024.
Asli Aydintaşbaş is a visiting fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings, as well as a former Global Opinions columnist at The Washington Post and a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
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Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there has been a notable evolution in France’s approach toward Moscow. In the initial months following the invasion, French President Emmanuel Macron continued to engage diplomatically with Vladimir Putin, controversially insisting that the West must not humiliate Moscow, prompting harsh criticism from France’s NATO allies. After apologizing last year for France’s previous failure to listen to the warning of its Central and Eastern European allies about Russian intentions, however, the French President notably pushed last month for greater Western strategic ambiguity regarding the war, stating that he had not ruled out the possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine. This once again prompted an outcry from NATO allies wary of escalation, such as Germany and the United States. To discuss how to interpret this apparent shift in French thinking and its possible implications going forward, Tara Varma and Bruno Tertrais join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on Brussels Sprouts.
Tara Varma is a visiting fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution.
Bruno Tertrais is the Deputy Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research, a leading French think-tank on international security issues.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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This past weekend, Russians went to the polls for the country’s presidential election. To the surprise of no one, Vladimir Putin emerged victorious with a record-high 87 percent of the vote—or so the Kremlin claims. In the wake of the death of Alexey Navalny and Putin’s bans on attempts of alternative candidates, such as Boris Nadezhdin, to compete in the elections, political opposition was limited to an informal agreement among thousands of voters to go to the polls at noon to express their discontent. Yet regardless of the fraudulent nature of the election, Putin is likely to take this result as evidence of a popular mandate to continue his policies of aggression abroad and repression at home. As we look ahead to Putin’s fifth term in office, how should we expect Russian domestic politics and foreign policy to evolve in the years to come? To discuss all this and more, Angela Stent and Joshua Yaffa join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Angela Stent is senior adviser to the Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies and professor emerita of government and foreign service at Georgetown University. She is also a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and co-chairs its Hewett Forum on Post- Soviet Affairs. Stent is additionally the author of Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest (2019).
Joshua Yaffa is a contributing writer for The New Yorker. He is also the author of Between Two Fires: Truth, Ambition, and Compromise in Putin’s Russia, published in January 2020 by Tim Duggan Books, which won the Orwell Prize in 2021.
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Last week, French President Emmanuel Macon made waves when he said that he had not ruled out sending ground troops to fight in Ukraine. This statement prompted a strong reaction from Russian President Vladimir Putin, and for many of France’s NATO allies to distance themselves from Macron’s statement and potential escalation. One of the most notable instances of this came from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who asserted that soldiers from NATO countries should not “actively participate in war events.” This latest Franco-German spat fits within a larger trend of disagreements between Paris and Berlin and comes at a time when unified European leadership is desperately needed to aid Kyiv. To discuss the implications of these recent events for the future of Western support to Ukraine, Camille Grand and Claudia Major join Andrea Kendall- Taylor and Jim Townsend on Brussels Sprouts.
Camille Grand is a Distinguished Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He leads the organization’s work on defense and disruptive technologies in European security.
Claudia Major is head of the International Security Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. Her research focuses on European and transatlantic security and defense policy.
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Throughout January, Germany witnessed weeks of mass protests against the far-right in numerous towns and cities across the country. The immediate impetus for these demonstrations was the revelation that leaders of the Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, had met with neo-Nazis to discuss potential large-scale deportations of certain segments of the country’s population. While the scale of participation in these protests demonstrates backlash among many Germans against the far-right’s xenophobic ideology, the AfD nonetheless retains significant popularity, particularly in eastern Germany. As the country looks ahead to various regional elections this fall that could see the AfD come to power, as well as to national elections in 2025, how significant of a threat does the far-right represent? To discuss the implications of the increasing mainstreaming of the far-right both in Germany and in Europe more broadly, Liana Fix and Erika Solomon join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Liana Fix is a Fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Erika Solomon is the Berlin correspondent for the New York Times.
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February 24 marks the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Heading into the third year of war, Ukraine faces a challenging outlook. No longer are U.S. and European leaders talking about Russia’s strategic failure in its invasion. Indeed, the Kremlin appears confident that things are heading in Russia’s direction after Ukraine’s 2023 offensive and signs of U.S. reticence to sustain military support to the Ukrainian effort. Anxiety over this outlook was running high at the Munich security conference, where allies grappled with the reality of a rising threat from Russia underscored by the killing of Alexei Navalny, the disclosure of Russian plans to put a nuclear weapon in space, and the transatlantic community’s lack of preparedness to address Russia’s rising challenge. To discuss where Ukraine stands two years after Russia’s brutal invasion, two former U.S. ambassadors to Ukraine, Bill Taylor and Marie Yovanovitch, join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts.
William Taylor is the vice president for Europe and Russia at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Prior to this, he served as the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to 2009, and as the chargé d'affaires at the U.S. embassy in Kyiv in 2019.
Marie Yovanovitch is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a nonresident fellow at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy of Georgetown University. She served as the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2016 to 2019, having previously held this post in the Republic of Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic
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During the past two years, the world has seen the eruption of two major conflicts in two different regions. In Europe, Russia has launched a war of aggression against Ukraine in an attempt to reclaim a sphere of influence, while in the Middle East, Iran’s longstanding policy of enabling proxies including Hamas has resulted in a major war in Gaza and widespread violence throughout the region. In the meantime, tensions continue to simmer in East Asia, where China’s ambitions of primacy have stoked fears of a potential future conflict over Taiwan. While these three regional competitions may seem separate, they are in reality becoming increasingly interconnected as ties among Eurasia’s revisionist powers become stronger—a dynamic similar to that observed in the prelude to World War II. What lessons should we draw from the past as we attempt to make sense of today’s global turmoil and its implications for the future? Hal Brands joins the podcast to discuss all of this and more.
Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
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In March of 2024, Russia will hold a presidential election. While Vladimir Putin is nearly certain to win another term in office given the Kremlin’s efforts to control the outcome and repress the opposition, it is far from certain how domestic dynamics in the country more broadly will play out in the months and years to come. As we approach the two-year anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, how is the Russian public viewing the war, how is Putin exploiting the conflict domestically, and what might be the potential risks to regime stability going forward? Graeme Robertson and Sam Greene joined the podcast to discuss all of this and more.
Graeme Robertson is a Professor of Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Director of the Center for Slavic, Eurasian, and East European Studies.
Sam Greene is the Director for Democratic Resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis and a Professor of Russian Politics at King's College London.
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This week’s Brussels Sprouts discusses expectations for Russia in the pivotal year ahead. As we approach the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine this February, how is the Kremlin viewing prospects for success going forward and the West’s capacity to sustain its support? Moreover, what is the potential impact of further instability in the Middle East, and how will Russia cultivate its relationships with China, Iran, and North Korea in 2024? With the upcoming elections in both Russia and the U.S., moreover, there is also much to consider regarding Putin’s domestic hold on power and the implications of American results for Russia. To address all of this and more, we’re pleased to have Fiona Hill with us on the podcast.
Fiona Hill is a senior fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe within the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. She also holds the position of chancellor at Durham University in the United Kingdom and was recently elected to the Harvard University Board of Overseers.
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On this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts, we are setting out to identify some of the big-picture trends shaping the transatlantic relationship and international affairs more broadly. As we look ahead to 2024, what are the biggest challenges facing the United States, Europe, and the world at-large, and what opportunities do policymakers have to address these challenges? To help us get a better sense of what to expect in the year ahead, Richard Fontaine and Michèle Flournoy join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on the podcast.
Richard Fontaine is the Chief Executive Officer of the Center for a New American Security. Prior to coming to CNAS, he was foreign policy advisor to Senator John McCain and worked at the State Department, the National Security Council, and on the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Michèle Flournoy is Co-Founder and Managing Partner of WestExec Advisors, and former Co- Founder and Chief Executive Officer of CNAS, where she currently serves as Chair of the Board of Directors. She also served as the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy from February 2009 to February 2012.
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Since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas this past fall, many have feared the possibility that the fighting could metastasize into a broader regional conflict. Such fears have only grown in recent weeks, as violence has risen across the Middle East. With increasing regional turbulence, the United States and Europe will face mounting pressure to take actions geared towards restabilization, complicating their ability to devote resources to other ongoing challenges such as the war in Ukraine. To unpack recent events and their likely implications for the transatlantic partners, Jon Alterman joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Jon Alterman is a senior vice president, holds the Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and is director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
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As we enter 2024, one of the biggest issues likely to face transatlantic partners is the rise of far-right parties in Europe, which have recently gained significant electoral support in countries such as the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and Sweden. After strong showings several years ago, these parties seemingly receded into the background as the leaders of more traditional parties steered Europe through major crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. As we observe the far-right become more prominent in the political mainstream, what are the reasons behind this trend, and what are its likely implications for Europe going forward? To tackle these crucial questions, Catherine Fieschi and Erik Jones join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Catherine Fieschi is a leading European political analyst and a Fellow of the Robert Schuman Centre in Florence
Erik Jones is the Director of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies at the European University Institute
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As 2023 came to a close, many people began to characterize the war in Ukraine as a stalemate. Though it is true that very little has recently changed along the front lines and that neither side will be able to make a breakthrough, this label is misleading. Indeed, as 2024 takes hold both Moscow and Kyiv are working to rebuild their offensive capacity. Developments this year regarding both sides’ access to munitions, capacity to train fighters, and the extent of casualties in the war will be critical in shaping the conflict’s long-term trajectory. As such, 2024 is likely to be a decisive year for the war in Ukraine. To discuss where things stand and where they could go, Michael Kofman and Shashank Joshi join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Mike Kofman is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military and Eurasian security issues.
Shashank Joshi is the Defense Editor at The Economist and a Visiting Fellow at The Department of War Studies at King’s College London
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At last week’s European Council summit, EU heads of state and government agreed to begin accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova as well as to grant candidate status to Georgia. These historic decisions demonstrate the new momentum in the European Union’s enlargement process following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has forced the bloc to think more strategically about integrating its neighbors to the east. But while enlargement may be back on the political agenda, there are many obstacles in its way, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, the need for substantial political reforms in candidate countries, and the need for the European Union to reform its own institutions to be able to welcome new members. As we look towards what is sure to be a long and difficult process, what are the true prospects for enlargement’s success, and what will need to happen before a new set of member states can join the European Union? To discuss all of this and more Veronica Anghel and Engjellushe Morina join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Nick Lokker on this episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Veronica Anghel is a Lecturer at SAIS Europe and a Visiting Fellow in the Robert Schuman Center at the European University Institute.
Engjellushe Morina is a senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
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On November 29, former U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger died at the age of 100. With a long career spanning many decades as both a scholar and a statesman, Kissinger leaves behind a controversial legacy. While many have celebrated his success in resolutely pursuing U.S. global interests, others have denounced Kissinger’s apparent disregard for values such as human rights. To unpack Kissinger’s immense and complicated impact on both the United States and the world, David Sanger and Stephen Sestanovich join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
David Sanger is the White House and National Security Correspondent for The New York Times, reporting on President Biden and his administration, with a particular focus on foreign policy and its intersection with technology, politics, and superpower conflict.
Stephen Sestanovich is the George F. Kennan senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis professor of international diplomacy at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs. He is the author of Maximalist: America in the World from Truman to Obama, published by Knopf in February 2014.
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As winter approaches and territorial changes along the frontlines in Ukraine continue to be minimal, the realization is setting in that a long war likely lies ahead. To continue to defend itself against Russia’s aggression in the months and years to come, Kyiv will need the full support of its Western backers. Yet continued aid from the United States—Ukraine’s largest provider of weapons by far—is looking increasingly doubtful. To unpack the political reality around Ukraine support in the United States and the likely implications for Kyiv’s war effort, Ivo Daalder joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Ivo Daalder is President of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. From 2009-2013, he served as the United States’ Ambassador to NATO.
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Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, many observers have focused on the consolidation of Western unity in responding to Moscow’s aggression. However, attitudes toward the war differ significantly in many places outside of the United States and Europe. The apparent split between the West and the so-called “Global South” has also attracted increasing attention as non-Western countries such as China, India, and Brazil have taken on a more influential role on the world stage. What explains these differing attitudes, and how can the United States and Europe engage the rest of the world productively on key global issues in the years to come? On this episode of Brussels Sprouts Nathalie Tocci and Timothy Garton Ash join Andrea Kendall- Taylor and Jim Townsend to help us make sense of all of this and more.
Nathalie Tocci is the director of the Italian Institute of International Affairs. In her formal role as Special Advisor to EU High Representatives Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell, she wrote the European Global Strategy and worked on its implementation.
Timothy Garton Ash is a professor of European Studies at Oxford University. He is the author of eleven books that have charted the transformation of Europe over the last half century.
Nathalie Tocci The Guardian Op-Ed Mentioned in Podcast: Nathalie Tocci, “War in Ukraine is revealing a new global order – and the ‘power south’ is the winner,” The Guardian, September 20, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/20/war-ukraine-new-global-order-power-south-india-china
For more about the report on the Global South mentioned by Timothy Garton Ash in the podcast:Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, and Mark Leonard, Living in an à la carte world: What European policymakers should learn from global public opinion (European Council on Foreign Relations, November 2023), https://europeanmoments.com/sites/default/files/2023-11/ECFR-CITRUS-joint-report-nov2023.pdf.
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During the past several weeks, a string of attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea has highlighted the challenges NATO faces in protecting itself against hybrid threats. After the discovery of damage done to a gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia, news soon broke that a data cable connecting Estonia and Sweden had also been damaged. While investigations point to a Chinese commercial vessel as the most likely culprit, the difficulty of attributing the incident directly to Beijing illustrates a common problem in defending against grey zone aggression more broadly. On this episode of Brussels Sprouts, Bruce Jones and Elisabeth Braw join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to help us make sense of recent incidents and what they can tell us about future threats posed by hybrid warfare.
Bruce Jones is a Senior Fellow with the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution.
Elisabeth Braw is a Senior Associate Fellow at the European Leadership Network and a columnist with Foreign Policy. Her work focuses on deterrence against emerging forms of aggression, such as hybrid and grey zone threats.
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More than a year and a half after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sustained Western support for Kyiv is as critical as ever. With the future trajectory of the war remaining highly uncertain, continued military aid from both the United States and Europe will be essential in enabling further Ukrainian successes on the battlefield. Yet commitment to such support is not guaranteed. In particular, recent global events have raised concerns about the degree to which European allies will continue to stand behind Kyiv. To discuss how we should be thinking about these various developments and their potential impact on the Russia-Ukraine war, Liana Fix, Tara Varma, and Justyna Gotkowska join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Liana Fix is a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is a historian and political scientist, with expertise in German and European foreign and security policy, European security, transatlantic relations, Russia, and Eastern Europe.
Tara Varma is a visiting fellow in the Center for the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. She focuses on current French defense and security proposals in the European framework, as well as ongoing efforts to materialize European sovereignty in health, economics, climate, energy, and more traditional security fields.
Justyna Gotkowska is the Deputy Director of the Centre for Eastern Studies based in Warsaw, Poland. Her work focuses on security and defense issues in Northern and Central Europe, including defense policies and armed forces’ developments in Germany as well as in the Nordic and Baltic states.
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Two weekends ago, news broke that Hamas had infiltrated Israeli territory, killing hundreds of civilians while taking many others hostage. In the wake of these attacks, Western leaders offered their support to Israel, condemning the actions of the Palestinian militant organization. However, some in Europe question how far to go, taking issue with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s unqualified commitment to “Israel’s right to defend itself.” As the crisis now verges toward possible escalation, Europe must grapple with not just the consequences for the region itself but the possible ripple effects on interests farther afield. In particular, Ukraine’s ongoing struggle is likely to be top of mind, with Moscow exploiting the current conflict. To discuss all of this and more, Julien Barnes-Dacey and Hanna Notte join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Julien Barnes-Dacey is the director of the Middle East & North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He works on European policy towards the wider region, with a particular focus on Syria and regional geopolitics.
Hanna Notte is the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Her work focuses on Russian foreign policy, including Russia’s relations with the “Global South” and the Middle East in particular.
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