Afleveringen
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RenMac discusses Fed Governor Waller’s comments, context, and contrast with Powell; reconciling GDI and GDP; Biden’s bump in the Bloomberg battleground state poll, and some evidence of the momentum trade unwinding.
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RenMac discusses how Michigan may determine the 2024 presidential outcome and how it is driving Biden’s EV policies, why the six months of progress on inflation is outweighing the previous two months of setbacks for Powell & Co., June cut looking likely, the productivity paradox and how it takes time to realize the gains from AI, why a partial gov’t shutdown on Monday isn’t likely to happen, why the expansion of internal highs suggests a bull market, and how energy and materials are performing better on an absolute basis.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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For nearly three decades, Ethan Harris was a fixture on Wall Street. After a stint at the New York Fed, Ethan went to Lehman Brothers where he served as the firm’s Chief US Economist. I had the good fortune of working for and learning from Ethan during his time as Head of Global Economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, from where he retired last year.Ethan is a wealth of knowledge, not only for his insights on the economy and Fed watching – but we also get into detail on how he approaches the role of a Wall Street economist and how that compares to the role of an academic. How to separate the noise from signal in the economic data and how to pick your spots against the consensus. To me, he’s set the standard for those that have come after him in the business.
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Neil and Steve welcome Kevin to the podcast to discuss Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s desire to replace Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the House vote to put TikTok on the clock, how China might retaliate against U.S. companies, what copper and commodities are saying, how the U.S. economic outperformance is benefiting Mexico and Canada, and why soft retail sales may not derail the overall solid US consumer story.
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RenMac discusses how the payroll print is bullish for the soft-landing camp, why you should keep watching the unemployment number, how both parties saw what they wanted to in Biden’s SOTU, the takeaways from Powell’s testimony, why there is still momentum in the market, how gold is breaking out, and why you should be careful with sentiment.
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RenMac discusses the relief rally in response to inflation data coming in as expected, why a stronger economy doesn’t linearly map to inflation, how a May Fed cut could be underpriced, another gov’t can-kick, how Michigan sent warning signs to both candidates, whether Haley will still in after Super Tuesday, the firmness of global indices, and relative weakness in utilities and staples.
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Howard joins Jeff and Steve to discuss the depressing U.S. debt outlook from the CBO, how the transformation of Japan’s economy is impacting global markets, the pace of the Fed slowing quantitative tightening, the need to monitor the impact of 10yr yields on equities, why a lower level of bank reserves is an important indicator, why one should be careful of the Nvidia impact on the broader market moving forward, how contraction can lead to vulnerability, why biotech may present better buying opportunities than tech, and the politics behind the upcoming Republican primary in SC and the Democrat primary in MI.
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RenMac discusses the volatility around the recent economic data, moderating inflation expectations, the correlation between air freight and industrial production, the crowded calendar that awaits Congress when it returns, why Neil wasn’t impressed with his Moscow grocery experience, what is and is not a momentum market, and whether bond yields are a better buy now or later.
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RenMac discusses the good, bad, and ugly for Biden in the Special Counsel report, Neil’s affinity for pop culture, how stronger productivity may be keeping inflation under control, why China may be so bad that it is good, the limited U.S. exposure to FX risk from China, and whether presidential race odds are influencing the S&P.
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RenMac discusses why the flukey payroll report may reduce the Fed’s sense of urgency, why the weather mattered in January, how a boost in productivity may also be a boost to earnings, how employment is more of a byproduct of a strong economy than a cause, whether the disconnect between economists and voters on the Biden economy is narrowing, why the Jan. 6th trial may be the one that could move voters, polling context, why Michigan matters, and whether consolidation can be contained.
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RenMac discusses Nikki Haley’s prospects, Trump’s Veep-stakes, how voters are viewing an improving economy, the path of least resistance, why Tesla is starting to crack, whether homebuilders should be worried, how pockets of tech options could be concerning, and why Chinese tech sentiment may be setting up nicely.
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RenMac discusses why Nikki Haley’s path to the presidency beyond NH is not a bright one, how better than expected retail sales and residential housing figures suggest a strong economic outlook, the great debate over when and how much the Fed will cut interest rates, why Fed Governor Waller is not riding the team transitory train, why the weakness in materials is good news not bad news, and why conditions are looking good for small caps.
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RenMac discusses why markets shrugged off the latest CPI miss, how the Fed places more emphasis on the PCE, why data may be driving the Fed more than politics, why U.S. bonds are more bullish than elsewhere, how more states resemble IA than NH in the GOP Primary, the importance of Taiwan’s presidential election, the parallels between the 1970s and today, and SEC chair Gary Gensler’s reluctant Bitcoin ETF approval.
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RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print points to productivity gains, why 3-to-4 rate cuts are more likely than 6, how geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Taiwan could upend the 2024 economic outlook, global market breakouts, and the broadening of market gains beyond the magnificent 7.
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Renmac discusses how dollar weakness contributes to global growth, the history of 8-consecutive weeks of S&P gains, the latest in the primary ballot battle, excessive inflows and the busy week/month ahead. Happy New Year.
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RenMac discusses how the latest PCE print supports a March Fed cut but why it may not go as far as the market is pricing, whether animal spirits can lead to irrational exuberance, why trash is outperforming treasure, why the U.S. Supreme Court may reach a different decision than the CO Supreme Court regarding Trump’s eligibility.
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RenMac discusses the escape velocity in equities, Powell’s press conference, why a March cut is looking more likely, who wore the boldest sweater on TV, why the rate of inflation is declining despite rather than b/c of the Inflation Reduction Act, the breakout in banks and REITs, and frothy animal spirits.
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RenMac discusses how the latest jobs print shows a stabilizing workforce, why the disinflation process is more entrenched now, the contraction in 2-year yields and BBB spreads, how the latest Republican presidential debate did little to change the race, the link between aid to Ukraine’s border and the southern border, and why ’95 might be the best comparable for the Fed.
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RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why you should watch Waller, ’95 vs. ’98 debate, the proverbial “everybody” problem, the gap between strategists and the spot price, tis the seasonality, Santos precedent, and Neil riffs w/ disdain on GOP mega donors.
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Jeff and Steve discuss Neil’s holiday traditions, the impact of a third-party presidential candidate, why Republicans feel better about their chances to take the Senate, yield dependency, why healthcare might be well- positioned for next year.
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