Afleveringen
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In this week’s At Any Rate Podcast, FX Strategists Patrick Locke & James Nelligan take stock of the bearish-USD view, look at new ways of framing the USD response to tariffs, discuss how European FX is responding to recent geopolitical and fiscal news, and finally preview upcoming central bank meetings next week.
SpeakersPatrick Locke, Global FX StrategyJames Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on March 14, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4934024-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their latest thoughts on European rate markets given the seismic shift in German fiscal policy and the repricing in European rates markets against a backdrop of ongoing tariff uncertainty.
SpeakersFrancis Diamond, Head of European Rates StrategyAditya Chordia, European Rates StrategistKhagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist
This podcast was recorded on March 14, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4935267-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Steps continue to be taken toward a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine this year, an outcome that J.P. Morgan Commodities Research has assumed will occur in 2025. Among all commodities under our coverage, natural gas is expected to be impacted the most. As ceasefire negotiations progress, we now incorporate a 15 Bcm/year return of Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe, starting from 2H25. Consequently, we have lowered our price forecast for 2H25, reducing it from 46 EUR/MWh to 40 EUR/MWh. Additionally, our 2026 price forecast has been revised down from 31 EUR/MWh to 25.5 EUR/MWh, with an average price projection for the second half of 2026 approaching 20 EUR/MWh.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Otar Dgebuadze, European Natural Gas Research
This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4892286-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income StrategySaad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 13 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4931834-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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We discuss implications of the regime-shift in German fiscal policy, moderating US exceptionalism and tariffs on FX markets.
Speakers:Meera Chandan, Global FX StrategyPatrick Locke, Global FX StrategyAnezka Christovova, Emerging Markets Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 7 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4925154-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra provide an update in the equity financing markets and discuss how that is driving growth in the ABCP market.
SpeakersTeresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration StrategyPankaj Vohra, U.S. Short Duration Strategy
This podcast was recorded on March 7, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4902017-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4926314-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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After attending IE Week in London last week, we concluded that the majority of investors likely held long positions in oil and that the pain trade would be to the downside. Since then, Brent oil prices have plunged 6.5%, reaching their lowest since December 2021 on Wednesday, while WTI have fallen nearly 6% over the same period, hitting its lowest point since May 2023. Brent is currently trading about $7 below its fair value, with short-term technical indicators in oversold territory. The market sees a drop in Iranian supply as the only bullish catalyst for prices, an event we do not anticipate, however further depreciation in the US dollar could stabilize and potentially boost oil prices. To recap our view, we expect the price of Brent oil to average $73 this year—largely unchanged from our 2024 Outlook published in November 2023—exiting the year at $64, before slipping to a $61 average in 2026.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 7 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4925607-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss the recent US moderation and upcoming tariff announcements, with implications for US rates and the dollar.
Speakers:Meera Chandan, Global FX StrategyJay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4922731-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4920384-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Speaker:
Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
Limited copper supply growth and resilient global demand sets up a tighter forecasted refined copper market in 2H25 and 2026 and keeps us medium-term bullish on prices. While current slack in China and the potential for greater tariff headline volatility over the next month risks a near-term pullback in copper, we ultimately believe global demand will begin to stress copper balances later this year. Moreover, likely excess inventory builds in the US in the coming months ahead of a tariff on copper sets up the potential to leave the rest of the world shorter of copper than expected, driving more significant tightening to copper balances in China and Asia into the summer, setting the stage for our forecasted bullish push higher over 2H25 towards $10,400/mt.
This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4909053-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Rates strategists Francis Diamond and Phoebe White discuss their latest views on global inflation markets following broad-based breakeven narrowing over the past month. Despite upside surprises in January CPI reports, front-end breakevens have underperformed while the forward inflation curve has steepened across US, Euro area, and UK markets.
Speakers:
Phoebe White Head of US Inflation Strategy
Francis Diamond Head of European Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income StrategySaad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Matteo Mamprin discuss the drivers of Eurex futures roll and their outlook for Mar25/Jun25 Eurex bond futures rollover
This podcast was recorded on 25 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4915436-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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A fixed income cross-asset review as structural shifts gain critical mass.
Speakers:Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy | ModeratorGisela Brant, LatAm Local Markets StrategyGorka Lalaguna, EM Sovereign Credit StrategyAlejandra Andrade, LatAm Corporate Credit Strategy
This was recorded on February 24, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4891328-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Meera Chandan and Greg Fuzesi discuss the outcome of the German elections, implications for a fiscal response and take-aways for currency markets.
This podcast was recorded on 24 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4918826-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4913224-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4915483-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Rates strategists Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss their latest views on the Treasury and TIPS market in the context of the January FOMC meeting minutes, debt management strategy commentary from Treasury Secretary Bessent, ongoing tariff headlines and rising survey-based inflation expectations.
Speakers:Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates StrategyPhoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy
This podcast was recorded on February 21, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4915577-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4916770-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4916846-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4917624-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Arindam Sandilya, Junya Tanase, and James Nelligan discuss the FX outlook amid cross-currents of wavering tariff risk premium in the USD, European peace optimism and sharp moves in the JPY.
Speakers:Arindam Sandilya, Global FX StrategyJunya Tanase, Global FX StrategyJames Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4915483-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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The original JCPOA agreement is set to expire on October 18, 2025, raising the question of whether it makes sense to restore the JCPOA as it was envisioned in 2015 or to draft a new nuclear agreement, with both the US and Iran signaling willingness to negotiate. Economic transformation in the Gulf requires stability and GCC countries have engaged with Iran, reducing support for aggressive US policies. Rebounding US inflation may also influence policy priorities. We forecast Iranian crude production to remain flat at 3.1 mbd in 2025, unchanged from 2024 levels.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4906782-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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In this podcast Francis Diamond, Ravi Balakrishnan, Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc and Aditya Chordia discuss frequently asked client questions on increasing spending needs for defence and Ukraine reconstruction, European policy response options, various funding options on table, and the impact on sovereign issuance and markets.
This podcast was recorded on 20 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4915753-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Natasha Kaneva, Meera Chandan and Anezka Christovova discuss the potential of recent developments on commodities and FX markets.
This podcast was recorded on 14 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4909040-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4906783-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4904380-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4893759-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 13 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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