Afleveringen
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While recent diplomatic efforts to bring Ukraine and Russia to a peace deal and the unexpected Easter truce announced by Putin are bearing no fruit, the situation on the battlefield remains the most influential factor in the future trajectory of the warâincluding diplomatic attempts to bring the conflict to a halt. Donald Trump seems to believe that Ukraine will inevitably lose the war if a peace deal that can satisfy the Kremlin isnât achieved. But is that really the case? What shape are Ukrainian and Russian forces in in terms of manpower, equipment, and tactics? And what are the potential scenarios for the 2025 campaign?
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When U.S. President Donald Trump announced his long list of reciprocal tariffs, many instantly noticed that one country had escaped any restrictions: Russia. Does that mean Russia is now a safe haven amid the ongoing economic storm? And what are the consequences for Moscow of a falling oil price, and the unprecedented U.S. tariffs on China, Russia's most significant trading partner?
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Throughout the war, many people have been skeptical about how long Ukrainian society could hold up before inevitably collapsing under Russian pressure. After three full years of war, there are no signs of discord or the looming collapse of the unity of the Ukrainian people. After his public dressing-down by Trump in the Oval Office, Zelenskyâs popularity only increased. But is the real picture more nuanced than this? What processes are unfolding right now inside Ukraine?
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What is the reason for the sudden change of heart in U.S. policy on Russia under the Trump administration? One theory is that Donald Trump is trying to lure Russia out of Chinaâs sphere of influence and drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, a move described by some as a âreverse Kissinger.â How accurate is that theory, and does the U.S. administration have the instruments needed to pry China and Russia apart?
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With the arrival of the new administration in the White House, everyone waited with bated breath for the first executive orders regarding the war in Ukraine. The actions of President Donald Trump and his team have not only damaged the United Statesâ reputation, but also overall transatlantic unity andâmost importantlyâUkraine's prospects of security guarantees and a lasting peace. After the latest high-profile talks in Saudi Arabia, the world has been left to ponder what it all means.
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In 2022, in response to Russiaâs invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared âZeitenwendeââa âturning pointâ in how Germany should think about its defense and security. As the third anniversary of the war approaches amid signs that the Trump administration wants to bring it to an end on terms favorable to Russia, Germany is yet to form a new government following the collapse of Scholzâs coalition. What does the upcoming federal election mean for Germany and its role supporting Ukraine? What changes to German and EU defense can be expected, depending on the composition of the new coalition?
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Since Donald Trumpâs inauguration as U.S. president, ways to stop the carnage in Ukraine this year have been the subject of intense policy discussions in capitals around the world. Despite Trumpâs rhetoric about ending the war swiftly and forcing Putin into a deal, there is still no clear vision of how a cessation of hostilities could be reached. Does the new team in the White House have what it takes to secure a deal that guarantees Ukraineâs sovereignty, and what is the way forward?
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For a long time, oil and gas sales were the Russian economyâs main source of income. Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU and U.S. have unleashed unprecedented sanctions upon the Russian energy sector. The effectiveness of this pressure is hotly debated, since Russia has proved able to continue its assault.
What is the current state of the Russian oil and gas sector? How have the last three years changed Russiaâs approach to selling energy commodities, and how have developments affected the global energy market?
Check out Sergeyâs piece on the Russian shadow fleet for Carnegie Politika â https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/09/russia-oil-fleet-sanctions?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia
And Sergeyâs piece for Financial Times (subject to a paywall) â https://www.ft.com/content/68403277-9cda-491c-aeeb-7dbe77850df6
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Russia has had a strong military presence in Syria ever since 2015, bolstering the regime of Bashar al-Assad and pushing back the rebels. But in the space of a few days this month, the rebels were able to take major cities including Damascus and overthrow the government. Assad was forced to flee the country and seek refuge in Moscow. What does this mean for Russia, which had invested a lot of resources in Syria and used it as a bargaining chip in the power play in the Middle East? What will the fallout be from this sudden change of political climate?
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After the long-awaited decision of the United States to allow the use of Western-made weapons against internationally recognized Russian territory, Russia retaliated by launching an Oreshnik missile, which it claims is a newly developed intercontinental ballistic missile. With many details about the new missile still unknown, the danger of possible nuclear escalation looms over the world, leaving decisionmakers in the West grappling with the question of how to navigate such dangerous terrain.
Host - Alex GabuevGuest - James Acton
Music by Liam Gordon
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For many, the recent victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election looks like a clear win for the Kremlin. Trump has promised to stop the war in Ukraine swiftlyâpresumably on terms more favorable to Moscow than to Kyiv. But does the president-elect really have what it takes to convince Moscow to stop its relentless assault on Ukraine? What steps does he need to take to attempt to secure the promised peace deal? What will happen if those efforts fail?
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Russia is using agents of influence, propaganda, vote buying, and the Orthodox Church to retain influence in Moldova. With a presidential election looming, the people of Moldova must decide whether they want to continue the EU-integration course led by President Maia Sandu, or whether to spurn it and pursue a different path, all while Russia tries to seek and invent new ways to remove agency from what it considers âa potential part of Russia.â
You can read Maksim Samorukovâs recent paper on Moldova here: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/moldova-russia-strategy?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia
Host â Alexander Gabuev
Guests â Paula Erizanu and Maksim Samorukov
Produced by Dmitrii KuznetsovMusic by Liam Gordon
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Despite predictions that the Russian military budget had reached its peak, the recently announced 2025/26 budget shows otherwise. To keep the war machine oiled and functioning, the Russian government is once again raising military spending substantially to levels not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Some in the Russian elites believe that ongoing high demand in the military industrial complex will expedite economic growth. Several miscalculations by the West and a lack of massive military achievements from Ukraine have allowed the Russian economy to withstand the pressure of sanctions. But how sustainable is the current economic strategy, and how long can Putin fund his atrocious war while damaging crucial yet vulnerable economic sectors like healthcare, education, and science?
Read Kolyandr's piece on Western sanctions for Carnegie Politika:https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/09/russia-eu-sanctions-trade?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia
Host â Alex GabuevGuests â Alexandra Prokopenko, Alexander Kolyandr
Producer â Dmitrii Kuznetsov
Music by Liam Gordon
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In August, the Ukrainian armed forces managed to pull off an incursion into Russian territory. Unlike previous forays executed by small paramilitary groups, the incursion into Russia's Kursk region appears to be more strategic and serious. Russia was forced to retreat, leaving behind a lot of conscripts who were taken as prisoners of war by the Ukrainian army. While the operation seems to be slowing down, its long lasting consequences are still not clear. Regional governments in border regions of Russia are trying to maintain the facade of life as usual while evacuating people from the affected area.
The Kremlin, meanwhile, is looking for a way to counteract the enemy's operation and recover from such a reputational blow for a nuclear state.
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Russiaâs unjustified aggression against Ukraine has revitalized NATO, and this new energy was on display at the recent 75th anniversary summit of the alliance. While there were some long-term decisions to boost European deterrence against the Russian threat, other key questions were left unanswered. Can Ukraine become a full member of the alliance? When can this happen? The open-ended confrontation in Eastern Europe, and the risks posed by a belligerent Russia, have resulted in a situation that is more ripe for escalation than the darkest days of the Cold War.
In this episode, renowned historian Mary Elise Sarotte discusses the roots of the current crisis. Author of Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of PostâCold War Stalemate, Mary Elise Sarotte is also Marie-JosĂ©e and Henry R. Kravis Distinguished Professor of Historical Studies at Johns Hopkins University. What should the U.S. and Europe do before itâs too late to help Ukraine? How are the historical cases of Norway and West Germany joining NATO relevant to Ukraine today? What can history teach us when it comes to preventing the security situation in Europe from getting even worse?
Further reading:
- Sarotte, M.E., A Better Path for Ukraine and NATO, Foreign Affairs
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The war in Ukraine has left a group of âin-betweenâ European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. These countriesâArmenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbiaâfind themselves in what we have termed an âarc of instabilityâ between Russia and the European Union.
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Putin has visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years. The visit reflects the two countries' deepening alignment amid Pyongyang's active support for Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Andrei Lankov provides insights into the signals being exchanged between Moscow and Pyongyang, and addresses the question of whether a real alliance might be on the cards.
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Following his fifth presidential inauguration, Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a new government. The most significant change is to the Defense Ministry, which will now be led by Andrei Belousov, a Keynesian economist and former deputy prime minister. Coming amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and notable arrests within the Defense Ministry, the reshuffle has prompted questions about Kremlin priorities.
What will Belousov's first moves as defense minister be? How will his predecessor Sergei Shoiguâs role evolve, and how might it impact the frontline in Ukraine?
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Responsibility for the March 22 terrorist attack at the Crocus City concert hall has been claimed by the Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), and most of the suspects are migrants from Tajikistan. Yet Russian authorities remain steadfast in their insistence that Ukraine and "Western forces" orchestrated the indiscriminate murder of over 140 people. What does this fixation on Ukraine signify for Russiaâs regime stability? Is there genuine conviction within Putinâs inner circle that Ukraine masterminded the attack? And what real threats does Russia face from radicalization in Central Asia?
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Four years ago, Belarus reached a point of no return in its delicate balancing act between Russia and the West. Desperate for support, Alexander Lukashenko's regime has become increasingly reliant on Moscow since 2020. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has further solidified Belarus's position as a close satellite state. What does this mean for the future of Belarus? What roles do Lukashenko and the Belarusian elite play? And how should the West re-evaluate its approach to Belarus in light of these circumstances?
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