Afleveringen
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Host Elizabeth Economy sits down with Jimmy Goodrich to discuss the technology competition between the United States and China. Goodrich argues that the competition is far from settled with leadership in many emerging technologies still up for grabs.
He describes China’s model as one defined by state-led investment in key sectors, tremendous depth in their ability to innovate, and leading the race in advanced technology and patents. He also outlines China’s long-term ambition to dominate the next wave of advanced technology such as high-energy physics and quantum computing. But he cautions that a weak private sector and venture capital landscape, as well as constraints on access to foreign technology, pose real limitations in some areas.
The United States, in contrast, is led by a dynamic private sector with a strong startup ecosystem, and world-class universities. It is also viewed as possessing more advanced capabilities in the current generation of technology. Goodrich concludes that whichever nation can better attract the top talent, create the best companies to diffuse AI into their economy, and effectively integrate AI into the military will shape the world we live in for generations to come.
Recorded on December 2nd, 2024.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Jimmy Goodrich is a leading expert on technology, geopolitics, and national security with a focus on China and East Asia. He is a senior advisor for technology analysis to the RAND Corporation and a nonresident fellow at the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, where he works in various capacities on research regarding China, technology, and national competitiveness. Jimmy was previously the vice president for global policy at the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), where he led the industry’s supply chain, international trade, export control, global market research, and China efforts. His work at SIA included researching Chinese industrial policy and chip industry economics, successfully securing $52 billion in funding for the CHIPS and Science Act, and navigating complex multinational export control and other national security issues. Jimmy was also the director for China policy at the Information Technology Industry Council (ITI) in Washington, DC, and prior to that spent seven years in the tech sector in China.
Elizabeth Economy is the Hargrove Senior Fellow and co-director of the Program on the US, China, and the World at the Hoover Institution. From 2021-2023, she took leave from Hoover to serve as the senior advisor for China to the US secretary of commerce. Before joining Hoover, she was the C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and director, Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of four books on China, including most recently The World According to China (Polity, 2021), and the co-editor of two volumes. She serves on the boards of the National Endowment for Democracy and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. She is a member of the Aspen Strategy Group and Council on Foreign Relations and serves as a book reviewer for Foreign Affairs.
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Jimmy Goodrich on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jimmygoodrich/ABOUT THE SERIES
China Considered with Elizabeth Economy is a Hoover Institution podcast series that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.
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Host Dr. Elizabeth Economy sits down with Joerg Wuttke to discuss his 30+ years doing business in China, the systemic challenges facing the Chinese economy, what the future holds for the China-EU relationship, and buying 160 million masks for then German Prime Minister Angela Merkel during the pandemic.
Wuttke provides insight into the dramatic changes in China’s business environment from his seat as BASF’s chief representative in China and head of the European Union’s Chamber of Commerce in China. He shares how he navigated the Chinese system to build one of the country’s most successful joint ventures, dealt with the endemic corruption in the Chinese bureaucracy, and steered BASF through the COVID lockdowns. He describes the current challenging environment for foreign companies: the departure of young talent, the growing competitiveness in many sectors of Chinese homegrown business, the primacy of Chinese Communist Party ideology over economic development, and the uneven playing field created by Beijing to advantage Chinese companies.
In his reflections, Wuttke describes his time working in China during the 1980s as the “best and worst of all times,” as he witnessed the stunning transformation of the country. Yet under the rule of Xi Jinping, he describes a vast surveillance state becoming increasingly unfriendly to the private sector—including both Chinese companies and multinationals. And while a thaw in relations may be unlikely, Wuttke encourages listeners to travel to China, to appreciate the culture, and to remember that the “party is not the country”.
Recorded on December 5, 2024.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Host Dr. Elizabeth Economy sits down with Rhodium Group Co-founder Daniel Rosen for an in-depth look at the current state of the Chinese economy, the challenges it will face going forward and how a second Trump presidency may affect it. With an economy that is currently facing reduced growth, a cratering real estate sector, and increased scrutiny from US and EU counterparts over its exports of overcapacity in EVs, Rosen describes the issues at the heart of the problem: a failure to meaningfully reform the fiscal system, including rebalancing the share of central and local government revenues, weak domestic consumption and over-reliance on investment and exports, and high levels of local government debt. Rosen also outlines the challenges China faces on the global stage with its grand-scale infrastructure initiative, the Belt and Road. Rosen concludes that without a serious reboot of economic reform and opening the Chinese economy will only continue to lose steam. The two also discuss the effects of what a second Trump presidency, and tariffs up to 60%, may bring to China. And while it may not be time to press the panic button yet, an expected increase in tariffs is almost certain to have major macroeconomic effects.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Daniel H. Rosen is the co-founder of Rhodium Group and leads the firm’s work on China. Mr. Rosen has worked professionally on China’s domestic economy and global commercial relations since 1992. He is widely recognized for his research on US-China relations and Asian commercial dynamics. He is affiliated with numerous think tanks focused on international economics and is an Adjunct Associate Professor at Columbia University.
From 2000-2001, Mr. Rosen was Senior Adviser for International Economic Policy at the White House National Economic Council and National Security Council. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Committee on US-China Relations.
A native of New York City, Mr. Rosen graduated with distinction from the graduate School of Foreign Service of Georgetown University (MSFS) and with honors in Asian Studies and Economics from the University of Texas, Austin (BA).
Elizabeth Economy is the Hargrove Senior Fellow and co-director of the Program on the US, China, and the World at the Hoover Institution. From 2021-2023, she took leave from Hoover to serve as the senior advisor for China to the US secretary of commerce. Before joining Hoover, she was the C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and director, Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of four books on China, including most recently The World According to China (Polity, 2021), and the co-editor of two volumes. She serves on the boards of the National Endowment for Democracy and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. She is a member of the Aspen Strategy Group and Council on Foreign Relations and serves as a book reviewer for Foreign Affairs.
RELATED SOURCES
End of the Line: The Cost of Faltering ReformsA Diversification Framework for ChinaRhodium GroupFOLLOW OUR GUEST ON SOCIAL MEDIA
Dan Rosen on X: x.com/rhodiumdanDan Rosen on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/daniel-rosen-2236b36ABOUT THE SERIES
China Considered with Elizabeth Economy is a Hoover Institution podcast series that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.
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In this episode, Elizabeth Economy, Matt Pottinger, and Evan Medeiros discuss where the US-China relationship stands at the end of the Biden administration, to the second Trump administration’s possible approach to China policy, as Trump has already promised significant increases on tariffs of Chinese imports.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Matt Pottinger is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. He previously served in the Trump Administration for four years in senior roles on the National Security Council staff, including as Senior Director for Asia and Deputy National Security Advisor, where he coordinated the full spectrum of national security policy. Previously, Pottinger worked in China as a reporter for Reuters and the Wall Street Journal. He then fought in Iraq and Afghanistan as a US Marine during three combat deployments between 2007 and 2010. Following active duty, he founded and led an Asia-focused risk consultancy, ran Asia research at an investment fund in New York and is now at Garnaut Global.
Dr. Evan S. Medeiros is the Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies in the School of Foreign Service and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in U.S.-China Studies. He has published several books related to China and East Asia and regularly provides advice to global corporations and commentary to the international media. He was also President Obama's top advisor on the Asia-Pacific, serving as the Senior Director for Asia from 2013 to 2015 and was responsible for coordinating U.S. policy in the region across the areas of diplomacy, defense policy, economic policy, and intelligence.
Elizabeth Economy is the Hargrove Senior Fellow and co-director of the Program on the US, China, and the World at the Hoover Institution. From 2021-2023, she took leave from Hoover to serve as the senior advisor for China to the US secretary of commerce. Before joining Hoover, she was the C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and director, Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of four books on China, including most recently The World According to China (Polity, 2021), and the co-editor of two volumes. She serves on the boards of the National Endowment for Democracy and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. She is a member of the Aspen Strategy Group and Council on Foreign Relations and serves as a book reviewer for Foreign Affairs.
RELATED SOURCES
Matt Pottinger
Book: The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend TaiwanForeign Affairs Article: No Substitute for Victory: America’s Competition With China Must Be Won, Not ManagedEvan Medeiros
Book: Cold RivalsForeign Affairs Article: The Delusion of Peak China: America Can’t Wish Away Its Toughest ChallengerABOUT THE SERIES
China Considered with Elizabeth Economy is a Hoover Institution podcast series that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.
