Afleveringen
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Cerebral Valley is tomorrow! Iâve been listening to old interviews, brainstorming with Claude and ChatGPT, and talking to investors to prep for my conversations with Dario Amodei, Martin Casado, and Alexandr Wang.
Weâll be sharing those conversations here in the newsletter. Expect video highlights on our social media feeds, a detailed rundown of the biggest moments in the newsletter Thursday, and full-length conversations on our YouTube channel.
To satiate your AI appetites until then, give a listen to the latest edition of the Cerebral Valley Podcast with my friends and co-hosts Max Child and James Wilsterman. Youâve listened to us assess whether startups are underrated or overrated and make our draft picks. Now weâre looking to the future. We asked Claude and ChatGPT o1 to make some predictions about what will happen in artificial intelligence over the next year. And then we took the over or under on those predictions.
Brought to you by Brex
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Plus, startups can earn industry-leading yield from their first dollar â while being able to access their funds anytime. If you want to make sure your portfolio companies have a place to save, spend, and grow their capital, check out Brex here.
Chapters
* 00:00 â Introduction to AI Predictions
* 02:48 â Exploring Predictions for AI in 2025
* 06:06 â AI Regulation in Healthcare
* 08:53 â Self-Driving Cars and Tesla's Future
* 12:04 â AI in News Media
* 14:55 â AI-Generated Films and Entertainment
* 17:53 â Anthropicâs Predictions and AI Co-Processors
* 20:59 â AI in Pharmaceutical Development
* 24:13 â International AI Treaties and Regulations
* 26:47 â Comparing AI Models: ChatGPT vs. Claude
* 30:06 â Future of AI and Human Systems
* 32:46 â Conclusion and Reflections on AI Predictions
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This is probably my favorite episode of the year. We just updated our picks for our artificial intelligence startup fantasy draft. That means dropping startups whose star is fading and making new pickups.
Last year, Max Child, James Wilsterman, and I drafted the most promising generative AI startups that had raised $100 million or more. In this latest episode, we make some hard choices: cutting loose startups who have lost our favor, cashing in on early acquisitions, and pickup up some new startups. In the process, we weigh in on the buzziest AI startups.
Brought to you by Brex
Brex knows runway is everything for venture-backed startups, so they built a banking solution that helps them take every dollar further. Unlike traditional banking solutions, Brex has no minimums and gives startups access to 20x the standard FDIC protection via program banks.
Plus, startups can earn industry-leading yield from their first dollar â while being able to access their funds anytime. If you want to make sure your portfolio companies have a place to save, spend, and grow their capital, check out Brex here.
Catching You Up on Last Yearâs Picks
To catch you up: hereâs how last yearâs draft went down. It started off with me taking on a $75 billion handicap for the right to pick first and draft OpenAI. We proceeded from there in a snake draft with Max picking second and James picking third. Here were the five companies we each drafted last year.
Last yearâs picks
Eric
* OpenAI
* Inflection
* Character.AI
* Glean
* Mistral AI
Max
* Databricks
* Pinecone
* Cohere
* Modular
* Imbue
James
* Hugging Face
* Anthropic
* AI21 Labs
* Replit
* Adept
Altogether on this weekâs episode we collectively dropped three companies, exited three, and picked up twelve new startups.
I donât want to spoil our picks so youâll have to listen to the episode to find out what happened. (As a reminder, the goal here is to accumulate the most total value by November 1, 2028. We arenât worried about the return on our investment just the final end state valuation.)
Weâd love for you to weigh in in the comments with your own seven startup picks and give us your feedback on what you think of our draft decisions.
Give it a listen.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Weâre back with a couple episodes of the Cerebral Valley Podcast leading up to our summit on November 20.
Iâm joined by my Cerebral Valley AI Summit co-hosts Max Child and James Wilsterman.
On this episode, we started by talking about the thing on everyoneâs minds â the election of Donald Trump and what it means for artificial intelligence.
Then, at the 28 minute mark we debate whether Anthropic, Suno, Perplexity, Midjourney, and a bunch of other AI companies live up to the hype in a game of âoverrated, underrated, or properly rated.â
Episode produced by Christopher Gates
Timestamps:
* 00:00 â Initial reactions to the results
* 06:16 â Energy policy under Trump
* 09:25 â Will tariffs replace the CHIPS Act?
* 12:23 â Regulation and AI policy in a new era
* 21:52 â Black swans in AI and policy
* 27:54 â Overrated, underrated, or properly rated? AIâs hype meter
The Cerebral Valley AI Summit on November 20 in SF
Weâll be hosting an elite group of AI startup founders, investors, and other senior executives on November 20 in San Francisco.
Spots are extremely limited, but we always hold back a few spots for founders who are late to get the memo that they should join us.
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Weâre in the home stretch. Silicon Valleyâs political nightmare could hopefully soon be over. In the latest episode of the Newcomer podcast, we dig into all of the tech industryâs burning political takes.
There was Josh Wolfeâs endorsement waffling. Jeff Bezosâ editorial intervention. And the general sense that everyone is losing their minds leading up to what should be Trumpâs last run at the presidency.
Later in the episode, we break down General Catalystâs massive fundraise haul and its transition into a âcompany.â We also discuss Stripeâs billion-dollar acquisition of Bridge.
Episode produced by Christopher Gates
Timestamps:
00:00 â Intro
04:13 â The VC political divide
09:27 â The Washington Postâs editorial debacle
12:25 â General Catalyst raises $8B
15:38 â Stripe acquires Bridge
Note for our listeners: Weâll be back with a couple episodes of the Cerebral Valley Podcast starting next week, so stay tuned.
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Newcomer turns four this week. On the podcast, Madeline talked with me about how it all began.
When I made the decision to start Newcomer, the venture capital industry was in the beginnings of a record-breaking bull run. A lot has changed since then, for both venture and the media industry, but Iâm excited about our growth at Newcomer and wanted to share a bit more about whatâs next.
Description
Eric and Madeline discuss Newcomerâs revenue milestones, the growth of Newcomer over the past four years, and whatâs next for the publication. They also focus on the downturn in the venture industry and how this will affect first-time fund managers.
Produced by Christopher Gates
Chapters
00:00 â Introduction
02:08 â Newcomerâs 4 Year Anniversary
08:22 â Building out a media company in 2024 and whatâs next
15:46 â The venture downturn vs. new emerging funds
22:02 â X-energy's $500 million raise
22:42 â $100 million for Path Robotics
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Description
In this episode, Eric Newcomer is joined by guest host Jon McNeill, a seasoned executive with experience at Lyft and Tesla who is now leading DVx Ventures. They discuss the bear case for OpenAI. The OpenAI discussion then leads into a closer look at the contrast between founder and manager modes before concluding with a discussion on Teslaâs advancements, or lack thereof, in self-driving technology.
Produced by Christopher Gates
Chapters:
00:00 â Introduction
03:27 â Bear case for OpenAI
13:07 â Founder mode management
17:20 â Tesla promises, but SpaceX delivers
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Description:
In this episode of the Newcomer Podcast, Eric Newcomer and Madeline Renbarger discuss two major funding rounds, the ongoing downturn in VC funding, and the growing imbalance between public relations professionals and reporters. Eric and Madeline highlight Poolsideâs $500M round and Impulse Spaceâs $150M raise, while pointing out that even the AI mega rounds cant hide the downturn in VC funding.
Produced by Christopher Gates
Audio Chapters:
00:00:18 â Poolsideâs $500M round
00:02:24 â Impulse Spaceâs $150M raise
00:05:17 â Downturn in VC
00:11:03 â The imbalance between PR and journalism
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In this episode of the Newcomer Podcast, hosts Eric Newcomer and Madeline Renbarger delve into the world of venture capital deals, starting with Ujetâs $76M Series D for its AI-powered call center software. Next up is the drama surrounding PearAI, whose growth-hacker tweet set the tech world buzzing. From there, they navigate through OpenAIâs own âGame of Thrones,â exploring internal power plays and high-stakes exits, before turning to Californiaâs latest AI regulatory battles. To wrap things up, they call for some balance in Silicon Valleyâs escalating discourse around drugs and psychedelics.
Chapters:
00:22 Ujet
01:40 PearAI
05:49 Open AI
11:45 AI Regulation
16:34 Drugs + SV
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Episode 1: AI + Robots, YC Preview, and Why the Cool Kids Keep Picking on Tech
In this weekâs episode of the Newcomer Podcast, hosts Eric Newcomer and Madeline Renbarger discuss three top venture capital deals, including World Labs and delivery startup Flink. They also wade into Y Combinatorâs upcoming Demo Day, highlighting trends in defense tech and the implications of AIâs power consumption.
The conversation touches on Runwayâs licensing deal with Lionsgate and concludes with an examination of John Mulaneyâs performance at Dreamforce.
Chapters
* 00:00 World Labs: A New Era in AI Robotics
* 05:10 The Rise and Fall of Delivery Startups
* 09:19 Y Combinatorâs Demo Day
* 11:46 Defense Tech
* 20:09 Powering AI: The Nuclear Debate
* 24:24 Runwayâs Licensing Deal
* 28:02 John Mulaneyâs Roast
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Today weâre highlighting two fireside chats from the Newcomer Banking Summit on March 14.
First up is Mercury CEO Immad Akhund. He talked about how the Silicon Valley Bank crisis sent customers rushing to his digital banking service.
He pitched a world where software â not human bankers â solve most of customersâ problems. Akhund told me, âMy experience with relationship banking was I need to send a wire and I literally cannot figure out to do it, please help me. Which to me never felt like a relationship, it felt very transactional and painful â and with Mercury you donât have to do that.â
Mercury is limited by the fact that it is not a bank â itâs a software company on top of banking partners â at a time when regulators are looking closely at how banks work with fintech partners.
We concluded our summit with Jackie Reses â who was a top executive at Square before leaving to buy a bank. Reses is the CEO of Lead Bank, a regional Kansas City bank that still serves local customers but has built an onramp for financial technology companies to connect with the banking system.
âThe thing I saw at Square â which I consider to be a very strong, innovative fintech â is that owning a bank and operating a bank is a 10X delta in understanding compliance to working in a tech company,â Reses said. At Square, Reses said, she learned to âappreciate the complexity of what it takes to do this, so that we could learn how to serve our clients better and help them scale â but make sure we never put ourselves in the position to risk the relationship that we have operating with our regulators.â
You can give the episodes a listen or watch them on YouTube.
Also: The Future of Banking with Rho, Jiko, and Ripple
In case you missed it, weâve posted another panel with three fintech/banking leaders.
Rho CEO Everett Cook, Jiko CEO Stephane Lintner, and Ripple President Monica Long are all trying to solve shortcomings in the legacy banking system, with different approaches. Check it out to see their takes on the major problems with banking today.
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Weâve got two great sessions from the Newcomer Banking Summit for you:
* First up, WestCap Group founder Laurence Tosi and Lux Capital co-founder Peter HĂ©bert. They give an unvarnished account of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank with the benefit of hindsight. âIt was like the banking equivalent of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan,â HĂ©bert said. âIt was absolute sheer terror.â
* We follow that up with Silicon Valley Bank President Marc Cadieux, who talks about where SVB is today and fields questions about all the new competition his reconstituted bank, now owned by First Citizens, is facing.
I thought Tosi and HĂ©bertâs talk was the spiciest of the day. And Cadieux was the man of the hour. I wanted to know where his head was at one year after the crisis.
You can give the episodes a listen or watch them on YouTube.
Breaking the Bank: BCVâs Matt Harris
If you missed it, yesterday I published a talk from Bain Capital Venturesâ Matt Harris.
In the headline, I made a mortifying error and used the acronym of another VC firm. Harris is Bain Capital Venturesâ fintech guru; he gave a great presentation and I had nightmares last night about my mixup. Apologies!
Hereâs that talk:
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Today, we have a double episode for you â two conversations from the Cerebral Valley AI Summit.
Reid Hoffman was fresh off a meeting with President Joe Biden when Hoffman and I sat down on stage at the Cerebral Valley AI Summit Nov. 15. On stage, he told us that working to get Biden elected next year is one of his top priorities.
Then, I sat down with the ever-feisty Vinod Khosla. The investor called for a TikTok ban and more welcoming immigration policies while warning against open-source artificial intelligence projects.
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NVIDIA DGX Cloud on OCI is an AI training-as-a-service platform for customers to train complex AI models like generative AI applications. Included with DGX Cloud, NVIDIA AI Enterprise brings the software layer of the NVIDIA AI platform to OCI.
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Hoffman Plans to Go Big for Biden
Hoffman, fresh off a meeting with President Biden, kicked off the afternoon with a strong endorsement of the Presidentâs record. Hoffman praised Biden for his recent executive order on artificial intelligence.
Reid called himself âa 95%-98% supporterâ of the executive order, endorsing provisions on reporting and monitoring, âred teamâ testing, and voluntary commitments by companies that might eventually be enforced via the Defense Production Act. But he pushed back on the idea that the FTC should be monitoring the AI industry for anti-competitive conduct.
âStartups are not being impeded right now,â he asserted, despite the apparent dominance of OpenAI and the mega-cap tech companies. Reid sits on the board of Microsoft, and offered that he was in fact âfirst money inâ on OpenAI, through his personal foundation, but heâs not concerned about, er, his own companies having too much power. âI donât think it constrains competition on any level.â
Hoffman is always happy to engage on policy, and I asked him what he thought about Marc Andreessenâs recent âtechno-optimistâ manifesto, which denigrates the very idea of government oversight. Reid said he was a techno-optimist too, and half-joked that Andreessen âquoted kind of liberally from things Iâve written and saidâ without any attribution. But Hoffman said that heâs not on board with Andreessenâs approach. âItâs kind of dumb to think that when you have major technologies there canât be negative side effects,â he said, noting that all his AI projects have safety teams. âTech can be amazing. Letâs be intentional about building.â
Khosla Wins Cheers from the Cerebral Valley Audience
Venture capitalist Vinod Khosla confirmed that his firm, boosted by an early stake in OpenAI, was about to close on $3 billion in commitments for a new fund. Valuations are high, he said, âbut just because valuations are high doesnât mean it isnât a good time to invest.â
Heâs not buying existential risk, calling it ânonsensicalâ talk from academics who had nothing better to do. But heâs long on China risk, saying the U.S. is in a âtechno-economic warâ with China and needs to fight hard. âI would ban TikTok in a nano-second,â he said, unlike his predecessor on stage, Hoffman, who Khosla said he very much admired. Khosla is firmly against open-source AI models as well due to the China risk.
Bio-risk and cyber risk are real concerns too, he noted.
But if China or rogue viruses donât kill us, Khosla thinks the near-future is very bright: âI do think in 10 years weâll have free doctors, free tutors, free lawyersâ all powered by AI.
Khosla also gave a grudging endorsement of the Biden Executive Order, saying it was âokay.â
But like most Silicon Valley moguls, he has no time for antitrust issues. âWe have to get people like Khan out of there,â he said, referring to the chair of the FTC (though misstating her name), calling her âcrazy, left-wing.â
Khosla said heâs long believed that AI would force us to âredefine what it is to me human.â
Meantime he himself plans another 25 years of VC investing, and if all goes well, maybe more.
Give it a listen
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We were delighted to kick off the 2nd Cerebral Valley AI Summit with Ali Ghodsi, CEO of Databricks, and Naveen Rao, co-founder of MosaicML.
Their encounter at our debut event in March led to Ghodsi buying Raoâs company, which had little revenue, for $1.3 billion. At our event on Nov. 15, the two discussed how the deal came together quickly after meeting at the conference dinner.
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NVIDIA DGX Cloud on OCI is an AI training-as-a-service platform for customers to train complex AI models like generative AI applications. Included with DGX Cloud, NVIDIA AI Enterprise brings the software layer of the NVIDIA AI platform to OCI.
Talk with Oracle about accelerating your GPU workloads.
Ghodsi recounted how he started spending some time with Rao and thought, âthese guys are pretty good,â and then by chance noticed an employee he respected poking around with MosaicML and offering a strong endorsement. Soon Ghodsi was on the phone with the head of his deals team, who told him âif you want to buy these guys you have to do it this weekend.â Rao said by that point âyou kind of know heâs going to pop the question,â and once they worked out the money, the deal was done.
The two executives certainly seemed to be in harmony as they touted the potential benefits from their combination, which in simple terms will bring MosaicMLâs expertise in building specialized generative AI models to Databricksâ corporate data platform products, essentially super-charging Databricks for the generative AI era.
They were eager to defend the idea of open-source foundation models that are specific to certain tasks, rejecting the notion that general-purpose models like ChatGPT-4 will eventually swallow everything. (This conversation took place before OpenAI was thrown into chaos by its board of directors.)
Ghodsi said calls to limit open-source models on the grounds that theyâll be too easily exploited by bad actors a âhorrible, horrendousâ idea that would âput a stop to all innovation.â
âItâs essential that we have an open-source ecosystem,â he said, noting that even now itâs unclear how a lot of AI models work, and open-source research will be critical to answering those questions.
Rao added that many of the people making predictions about how AI would develop are âfull of s**t.â On the safety question, he noted that cost alone would stand in the way of any existential risks for a long time, and in the meantime the focus should be on real threats like disinformation and robot safety.
Give it a listen
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If you could amass any five artificial intelligence startup bets right now, which companies would you pick?
My Cerebral Valley co-hosts and I took a stab at answering that question with an artificial intelligence startup draft.
Our startup draft starts at 27:35 after a discussion of some of the biggest themes going into this weekâs Cerebral Valley AI Summit.
The draft gave us a chance to dissect some of the most promising startups in artificial intelligence right now.
The goal was to amass five companies with the biggest valuation five years from now. We restricted ourselves to AI startups that had raised more than $100 million.
I encourage you to make your own prediction in the comments.
Give it a listen
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For this weekâs episode, I spoke with Chris Miller, the author of Chip War, about the rise of Nvidia.
While OpenAI gets the lionâs share of the public adulation for the sudden excitement about generative intelligence, Nvidiaâs H100 chips are powering much of the generative AI frenzy. Nvidiaâs stock has climbed over 200% over the past 12 months. And the company has become a key investor in generative AI startups.
Miller (who comes on the show around the 41-minute mark) talks through Nvidiaâs history and the geopolitical war raging over the production of chips.
In the first part of the episode, Cerebral Valley AI Summit co-hosts Max Child, James Wilsterman, and I discuss how big technology companies are working to fend off this new generation of AI startups.
Give it a listen
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Iâm back from my honeymoon in Japan. Thanks for sticking with the newsletter as I celebrated my wedding this year. Expect more of my newsletter writing soon.
If you have tips or story ideas for me, you can always reach out at [email protected].
I hope youâve been enjoying the Cerebral Valley podcast series while Iâve been gone. If you missed the first three episodes, you can check them out in the links below:
* The Cerebral Valley Podcast: Artificial Intelligence Becomes Reality
* AI Kills Us All (with Daniel H. Wilson)
* Someday That NPC Could Be More Alive Than You Are (w/ Amy Wu & Keith Kawahata)
On this weekâs episode of our Cerebral Valley podcast, co-hosts Max Child, James Wilsterman, and I talk about how artificial intelligence is actually affecting our lives today.
Then at the 34:40 mark, I talk with DoNotPay CEO Joshua Browder. His company is helping consumers cancel their gym memberships, dispute charges, and otherwise stand up to big corporations.
Browder got some heat for planning to have an artificial intelligence-powered lawyer argue in court. Ultimately, he reversed course under pressure from the legal world.
Browder envisions a world where AI is fighting other AIs. Companies use artificial intelligence to power their chatbots and to handle customer support. Consumers need to be armed with similarly powerful AI-powered tools to resist those companies.
Give it a listen
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Video games often represent the frontier of any new technology. Many of the most popular applications in the initial iPhone app store were games. Todayâs virtual reality devices are dominated by video games.
Artificial intelligence seems poised to upend the video game business and entertainment more broadly.
On the third episode of our six-part Cerebral Valley podcast series, Max Child, James Wilsterman, and I game out how artificial intelligence could reshape the media we consume.
It helps that Max and James are the co-founders of Volley, which builds AI-enabled games. They develop many of the most popular voice games on the Amazon Alexa and smart TV platforms like Roku.
Max and James have been deep in the trenches of conversational-style gaming and have spent a lot of time thinking about how humans interact with ever smarter computers.
In the second half of the episode, I talk with Menlo Ventures partner Amy Wu, who focuses on gaming and consumer investments, and Keith Kawahata, a former executive at Wargaming, AppLovin, and Kabam, who now has a stealth artificial intelligence gaming startup.
Wu helps to articulate a three-part thesis on how artificial intelligence might change the gaming business. (1) artificial intelligence will help with the creation of the game art and graphics, (2) AI can create more sophisticated non-player characters, and (3) AI can help write the code of the game itself.
One of the things that I was struck by from the conversation is that games may have a big leg up in implementing artificial intelligence over movies â because people interact so much more with a gaming, giving it tons of data to react to. While TikToks can learn what small populations of people like and what an individual likes over a long time, a game could learn a lot about a user in a single play session.
Of course, there are real hurdles left standing. Most notably, text-to-image generation so far is mostly two-dimensional. Despite everything thatâs happened, image generation models arenât just whipping out 3-D levels that are ready to play.
And it could be a while until non-player characters are as smart as humans. But imagine playing a game of Grand Theft Auto or Red Dead Redemption and the characters roaming around the game are self-aware agents with their own thoughts and drives.
Give it a listen
P.S. Iâm on my honeymoon right now in Japan. I was working frantically to record these episodes before I left. My chief of staff Riley Konsella is sending the episodes out for me while Iâm gone. If you need anything while Iâm away, you should email Riley.
Thanks in advance for being understanding that this newsletter is slowing down for my honeymoon. Iâm going to dedicate myself to relaxing over the next two weeks so that I come back hungrier than ever.
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Whatâs so crazy about this moment in artificial intelligence is that many of the most credible voices in AI think thereâs a real chance that this all turns out really, really badly.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently pegged his âchance that something goes really quite catastrophically wrong on the scale of human civilizationâ between 10% and 25%.
Thatâs comforting.
Applications to attend the Cerebral Valley AI Summit close TODAY October 17.
Apply right now to be considered for an invitation!
On the seriesâ first episode we reflect on how generative artificial intelligence and large language models took Silicon Valley by storm.
So in our second episode of the six-part Cerebral Valley podcast, Max Child, James Wilsterman, and I played out the doomsday scenarios. We talked a lot about science fiction and how writers have imagined artificial intelligence turning dystopian.
In the second half of the episode, I talked with science fiction author Daniel H. Wilson. He wrote the books How to Survive a Robot Uprising, Whereâs My Jetpack?, and How to Build a Robot Army. Wilson has also consulted with the military to help them game out how dystopian technologies might unfold.
Of course, even in the Anthropic CEOâs estimation, the most likely scenario is probably a more boring one: artificial intelligence doesnât try to secretly destroy us as we sleep in our beds.
But the fact that thereâs a chance is certainly worth considering.
I open our conversation with the parable âThe unfinished fable of the sparrowsâ from Nick Bostromâs Superintelligence.
It was the nest-building season, but after days of long hard work, the sparrows sat in the evening glow, relaxing and chirping away.
âWe are all so small and weak. Imagine how easy life would be if we had an owl who could help us build our nests!â
âYes!â said another. âAnd we could use it to look after our elderly and our young.â
âIt could give us advice and keep an eye out for the neighborhood cat,â added a third.
Then Pastus, the elder-bird, spoke: âLet us send out scouts in all directions and try to find an abandoned owlet somewhere, or maybe an egg. A crow chick might also do, or a baby weasel. This could be the best thing that ever happened to us, at least since the opening of the Pavilion of Unlimited Grain in yonder backyard.â
The flock was exhilarated, and sparrows everywhere started chirping at the top of their lungs.
Only Scronkfinkle, a one-eyed sparrow with a fretful temperament, was unconvinced of the wisdom of the endeavor. Quoth he: âThis will surely be our undoing. Should we not give some thought to the art of owl-domestication and owl-taming first, before we bring such a creature into our midst?â
Replied Pastus: âTaming an owl sounds like an exceedingly difficult thing to do. It will be difficult enough to find an owl egg. So let us start there. After we have succeeded in raising an owl, then we can think about taking on this other challenge.â
âThere is a flaw in that plan!â squeaked Scronkfinkle; but his protests were in vain as the flock had already lifted off to start implementing the directives set out by Pastus.
Just two or three sparrows remained behind. Together they began to try to work out how owls might be tamed or domesticated. They soon realized that Pastus had been right: this was an exceedingly difficult challenge, especially in the absence of an actual owl to practice on. Nevertheless they pressed on as best they could, constantly fearing that the flock might return with an owl egg before a solution to the control problem had been found.
Give it a listen.
P.S. Iâm on my honeymoon right now in Japan. I was working frantically to record these episodes before I left. My chief of staff Riley Konsella is sending the episodes out for me while Iâm gone. If you need anything while Iâm away, you should email Riley.
Thanks in advance for being understanding that this newsletter is slowing down for my honeymoon. Iâm going to dedicate myself to relaxing over the next two weeks so that I come back hungrier than ever.
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In the past 12 months, it has felt like âAIâ transformed from a pair of letters that companies affixed to their latest product announcements to get some extra marketing luster to the shorthand for a genuine technology revolution.
ChatGPT, Dall-E, Midjourney, and more showed the world what artificial intelligence is now capable of doing.
Then, the funding started pouring in for every startup that had anything to do with those two letters. Every venture firm needed to bet on their own foundational model and every startup needed to get its hands on Nvidiaâs H100s to train their own foundation models.
Ahead of the 2nd Cerebral Valley AI Summit on Nov. 15, I wanted to really take stock of how we got here. So I teamed up with my conference co-hosts Max Child and James Wilsterman to bring you a six-part podcast series on the rise of generative artificial intelligence.
You can apply to attend the Cerebral Valley AI Summit here. Applications close Oct. 16.
On the seriesâ first episode we reflect on how generative artificial intelligence and large language models took Silicon Valley by storm.
With the help of ChatGPT, we consider the top research papers that brought us here, the most important historic milestones along the journey, the key artificial intelligence products on the market today, and how artificial intelligence is already impacting our lives.
The show is fun and and lighthearted. I hope itâs a little more accessible than the usual fodder on the Newcomer podcast. For instance, on a future Cerebral Valley episode, weâre going to do a draft pick of what we think will be the most valuable AI startups. On upcoming episodes, I interview guests like Daniel H. Wilson â author of How to Survive a Robot Uprising, Where's My Jetpack? and How to Build a Robot Army â and DoNotPay CEO Joshua Browder.
If youâve never listened to the Newcomer podcast before, this is a good time to give it a shot. Die-hard podcast listeners will remember Max and James, who are the founders of the AI voice games company Volley, from my January episode on augmented reality.
Whether you can make it to Cerebral Valley in person or not, my hope is that this series is a solid primer as to what exactly has been going on in the business of artificial intelligence. I follow this stuff super closely and until we got organized for this podcast series there was so much that I hadnât learned.
I know most of you wonât be able to come to the conference in person, but there will be a virtual conference in this newsletter. We will publish recordings from the summit on our YouTube channel and send out some of our favorites over the podcast feed. So this is your lively refresher on all the crazy stuff that happened in Silicon Valley artificial intelligence startups this year.
Give it a listen.
Apply to attend the Cerebral Valley AI Summit here. Applications close Oct. 16.
P.S. Iâm on my honeymoon right now in Japan. I was working frantically to record these episodes before I left. My chief of staff Riley Konsella is sending the episodes out for me while Iâm gone. If you need anything while Iâm away, you should email Riley.
Thanks in advance for being understanding that this newsletter is slowing down for my honeymoon. Iâm going to dedicate myself to relaxing over the next two weeks so that I come back hungrier than ever.
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I brought two top Silicon Valley entrepreneurs working on extending lifespans on the Newcomer podcast this week.
One of them is trying to help people live longer. The other, their dogs.
James Peyer, the CEO of Cambrian Bio, is acquiring majority stakes in drugs that could combat a particular illness while showing promise for broader use among healthy humans. Meanwhile, Celine Halioua, the CEO of Loyal, is developing drugs to make dogs live longer.
Fundamentally life extension, or longevity, is about finding drugs and treatments that can be given to healthy humans to help them live longer, healthier lives. Instead of just treating illnesses, entrepreneurs in the space want to find ways to stave off aging in already healthy people.
The space has long been a fascination of mine. In February 2022, I profiled Elad Gilâs investments in an array of companies looking to make healthy humans live longer, healthier lives.
The HBO show Silicon Valley helped popularize the idea that Silicon Valley elites were pumping their veins with younger peopleâs blood. (Iâve yet to get anyone to confess to me that theyâre buying plasma.)
To the chagrin of this weekâs guests, one tech mogul desperate to avoid death has received a lot of the attention recently. Thatâs Braintree founder Bryan Johnson.
Time magazine just profiled Johnson under the headline âThe Man Who Thinks He Can Live Forever.â
Johnson, 46, is a centimillionaire tech entrepreneur who has spent most of the last three years in pursuit of a singular goal: donât die. During that time, heâs spent more than $4 million developing a life-extension system called Blueprint, in which he outsources every decision involving his body to a team of doctors, who use data to develop a strict health regimen to reduce what Johnson calls his âbiological age.â That system includes downing 111 pills every day, wearing a baseball cap that shoots red light into his scalp, collecting his own stool samples, and sleeping with a tiny jet pack attached to his penis to monitor his nighttime erections. Johnson thinks of any act that accelerates agingâlike eating a cookie, or getting less than eight hours of sleepâas an âact of violence.â
Even as Johnson is getting a lot of attention for his self-experimentation, thereâs a growing view that there could be something credible behind Silicon Valleyâs interest in life extension. The Economist just wrote that âslowing human ageing is now the subject of serious research.â
Many in mainstream science and medicine look at all this slightly askance. That is understandable. It is an area which attracts chancers and charlatans as well as those with more decent motives, and its history is littered with âbreakthroughsâ that have led more or less nowhere. Americaâs Food and Drug Administration does not recognise âold ageâ as a disease state, and thus as a suitable target for therapy. Nevertheless, evidence has been accumulating that such research might have something to offer.
Some established drugs really do seem to extend life, at least in mice. That offers both the possibility that they might do so in people and some insight into the processes involved. The ever-greater ease with which genes can be edited helps such investigations, as does access to large amounts of gene-sequence data. The ability to produce personalised stem cells, which stay forever young, has opened up new therapeutic options. And new diagnostic tools are now offering scientists means to calculate the âbiological agesâ of bodies and organs and compare them with actual calendar ages. In principle this allows longevity studies to achieve convincing results in less than a lifetime.
I dug in with Halioua and Peyer about where they saw the most opportunities, how their own companies were progressing, and why they thought Johnsonâs publicity campaign was doing a disservice to companies working on longevity.
The duo helped break down the space, discussing which types of companies they think are innovators, which efforts are more speculative moonshots, and which ones are simply snake oil.
Give it a listen.
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