Afleveringen
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Energy markets are digesting last night’s breaking news that Russia has agreed to a 30-day temporary ceasefire in Ukraine.
The ceasefire is limited to energy infrastructure only, meaning Russian forces can continue their military advancements into Ukrainian territory.
I recorded this emergency episode of the podcast late last night to share some initial thoughts about what this ‘ceasefire’ means for energy markets, and the wider prospects of a lasting peace settlement.
Shortly after uploading the podcast, I read on X that Russian forces broke the agreement barely 30 minutes after signing it by bombing power infrastructure in Sloviansk… 🤦♂️
As it happens, I have a Deep Dive in the works that will explore Russia’s targeted campaign of destruction against Ukrainian natural gas infrastructure since the New Year.
That piece will be published very soon — be sure to subscribe at www.EnergyFlux.news to get it delivered straight to your inbox.
Thanks for listening.
— Seb
P.S. Don’t forget to share your questions, thoughts and reactions to this and other energy-related news headlines for inclusion in the next episode. I prioritise input from paid subscribers 😉
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This week’s episode of Energy Flux: On Air is all about the resurgence of geopolitics, rather than regulation, as the primary driving force behind EU natural gas markets.
Don’t get me wrong, regulatory risk has not evaporated — far from it.
After the apparent relaxation of the EU’s gas storage refilling targets, there’s lingering uncertainty around how existing regulations are being interpreted.
But the regulatory standoff generated by the European Commission’s confusing recommendation is unlikely to be resolved quickly.
In the meantime, the intense geopolitical newsflow emanating from Ukraine and latest round of ceasefire talks in Saudi Arabia is a bottomless source of market uncertainty.
This was always going to be the case, and I was planning to discuss it all at length in the podcast.
But an influx of reader questions on these topics in recent days confirms to my mind that warp speed geopolitical upheaval is the top issue of concern for market players and observers alike.
The Energy Flux posts referenced in the pod are as follows:
* Burning the house down
* The bear roars
* The ‘wild card’ for TTF in 2025
* Sizing up the LNG glut — parts one and two
Happy listening :)
— Seb
P.S. Apologies if audio quality is not perfect, I’m still finding my feet with recording equipment and software.
More from Energy Flux:
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Welcome back to Energy Flux: On Air, the interactive podcast that delves into the world of European natural gas and global LNG markets.
The big story of the week was the wild rollercoaster on Dutch TTF, the European benchmark. I dig into what caused the epic price swings, drawing on my analysis from Thursday’s subscriber-only EU LNG Chart Deck.
In response to a reader question, I also discussed the correlation between TTF and Henry Hub — the benchmark for natural gas in North America — and how this is evolving with the unstoppable rise of US LNG.
Don’t forget to send me your questions, comments and observations for the next episode. I read everything, and love hearing from listeners. Just hit reply to any email, drop a line in one of the Chat Threads, or send me a direct message.
Remember, you can also listen to the podcast on your favourite platform:
* Apple
* Spotify
* YouTube
* Or just search for Energy Flux: On Air wherever you get your podcasts
Happy listening!
— Seb
More from Energy Flux:
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Welcome back to Energy Flux: On Air, the interactive podcast that delves into world of European natural gas and global LNG markets.
The main story featured in this week’s show is:
* Italy calls for EU investigation into speculation on TTF inflating gas prices (Montel News, QualEnergia)
In response to reader questions, I discussed:
* The EU Commission’s draft plan to consider US LNG equity investments to ward off Trump trade war (Politico)
* The impact of Trump’s incoming 25% steel tariff on US LNG projects
* Outlook for prices during the LNG ‘glut’ and potential for demand response from Asian buyers
* The excess LNG problem: Japan’s LNG buyers are over-contracted (IEEFA)
I also referenced the following Energy Flux articles:
* Gas, carbon and the geopolitical web (link)
* Sizing up the LNG glut (part one and two)
Happy listening!
— Seb
P.S. If you want to ask a question or make a comment for the next episode, send me a message. I prioritise Q&A requests from paying subscribers 😇
Get full access to Energy Flux at www.energyflux.news/subscribe -
Hi there,
I am very excited today to be relaunching the Energy Flux podcast 🥳
After the overwhelmingly positive response to my recent run of podcast appearances, I realised there is huge appetite for audio format news and commentary.
As I explain in this introductory episode, the concept is simple: chat through the most interesting headlines and market events of the week, and respond to any questions and observations mailed in from readers.
This won’t be a super-slick polished production, but rather a discreet space for people to tune in and engage with Energy Flux in audio form.
I’m still figuring out the schedule, length and frequency, but didn’t want to let small details stand in the way of actually getting started. So here goes!
If you have any burning questions you would like me to tackle in the next episode, just hit reply to this email or message me via the Substack app.
Thanks for listening,
— Seb
Get full access to Energy Flux at www.energyflux.news/subscribe
