Afleveringen

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Front-loading

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Front-loading

    · Global Data Pod

    Risks to the global expansion are elevated in the face of a broadening trade war, but incoming news highlights a still underlying resilient expansion. The trade drag weighing down 1Q25 US growth is reflecting a boost elsewhere, particularly in Asia where the latest news points to a surge in trade activity in advance of prospective tariffs.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Fear is the expansion killer

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Fear is the expansion killer

    · Global Data Pod

    The data through January tell a story of a moderating expansion, but the ongoing US policy turmoil is weighing on February sentiment readings. Absent a dĆ©tente in the US war on trade and other domestic austerity measures, we put the risk of recession this year at 40%. Next weekā€™s Fed meeting should aim to not make waves.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2025.

    See the Daily consumer spending tracker (https://jpmm-internal.jpmchase.net/research/open/latest/publication/9002054) for disclaimers and methodology for Chase Card Tracker data.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Trump sees his shadow, 4 more weeks of tariff exemptions

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Trump sees his shadow, 4 more weeks of tariff exemptions

    · Global Data Pod

    A tumultuous week in the US trade war leaves the world only with modestly higher tariffs on China but more downside risk. While tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods got pushed back (again) to April, noncompliant goods (estimated at 20% of total imports) will be tariffed at 25%. The impact of the chaos alongside the austerity measures of DOGE are likely to weigh on confidence and growth. Odds of global recession this year have jumped to 40%. Absent recession and against the backdrop of a sharp projected rise in German fiscal spending, the USā€™s own policy actions are likely to end this expansionā€™s period of US exceptionalism.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 7 March 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Research Rap: Sticky inflation meets tariffs

    Global Data Pod Research Rap: Sticky inflation meets tariffs

    · Global Data Pod

    Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the key takeaways from our latest Global Inflation Monitor and inflation risks stemming from higher tariffs . While there are reasons to fade elements of the January upside inflation surprise, global core inflation remains stuck at a 3% pace and we have nudged our 1Q25 forecast upward to 3.4%ar. Moreover, headline inflation has firmed to a 3.7%ar over the past three months after a slide to 2.6%ar over the prior six months. Tariffs are likely to add to inflation in the near-term, but medium-term inflation pressures should tilt lower due to the associated drags on sentiment. Euro area underlying inflation remains on track to moderate to 2% as weak demand looks to be weighing on corporate pricing power, while declining wage inflation fades cost pressures. US inflation appears moderately more sticky and a recent pop in some measures of inflation expectations point to a more gradual pace of disinflation.

    This podcast was recorded on March 04, 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4920790-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4921610-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4925120-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

    Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Research Rap: Some Unpleasant Tariff Arithmetic

    Global Data Pod Research Rap: Some Unpleasant Tariff Arithmetic

    · Global Data Pod

    Michael Hanson and Murat Tasci, of the US Economics team, discuss their latest Research Note on the challenges for meeting the many disparate objectives of the Trump tariffs, and what that might mean for tariff revenues.

    Speakers:

    Michael Hanson, Senior US and Canadian EconomistMurat Tasci, Senior US Economist

    This podcast was recorded on March 3, 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4921610-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: When worlds collide

    Global Data Pod Weekender: When worlds collide

    · Global Data Pod

    We see more momentum loss in the data and question how much is noise and how much is signal; we also question what that signal is if any. This then sets the foundation for assessing the risks related to the multitude of US policy risks on the horizon.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod EM Edge: Collateral Damage

    Global Data Pod EM Edge: Collateral Damage

    · Global Data Pod

    Nicolaie, Katie, Gbolahan and Steven debate exposures across EM Edge from policy actions taken by the Trump administration around FDI, trade and aid flows. In addition, they discuss an impending review of US membership to international organizations, which could encompass the World Bank and IMF, and how that could impact the EM Edge.

    Speakers:Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy ResearchSteven Palacio, EM, Economics ResearchGbolahan S Taiwo, EM, Economic and Policy Research

    This podcast was recorded on 26 February 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4910014-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4906578-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4910054-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4920549-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: How you like me now?

    Global Data Pod Weekender: How you like me now?

    · Global Data Pod

    The cyclical momentum into year-end is losing some steam at the start of the yearā€”how much so is debatable. Uncertainties around US policy are the key risks to the outlook. Looking through the range of Trump policy initiatives, the balance of risks looks to be tilting more negativeā€”again, how much so is debatable.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but soon and for the rest of your life

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but soon and for the rest of your life

    · Global Data Pod

    The latest data show downside surprises to growth and upside surprises to inflation. However, with so much noise at the start of the year, it is hard to take too much signal and with fundamentals still solid, we are comfortable with the outlook for healthy global growth this quarter. The risk is more looking forward and how the flood of back-and-forth Trump policies is impacting business decision making.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 14 February 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Don't look down

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Don't look down

    · Global Data Pod

    Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how the global expansion remains on solid footing for now. According to this weekā€™s January surveys, the firming in global industry late last year looks to have continued into 2025. However, US policy churnā€”including an unexpected trade war on its closest trading partnersā€”has increased uncertainties that are likely to be a new headwind, particularly on business spending. US fiscal policies are limited by already elevated deficits, adding to concerns of sustainability.

    This podcast was recorded on February 7, 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Research Rap: A testing time for core inflation

    Global Data Pod Research Rap: A testing time for core inflation

    · Global Data Pod

    Tariffs could lift global inflation this year, but business cycle dynamics are likely to play an important role in driving core inflation performance. Consistent with our forecast that the global economy turns into the new year generating above-trend growth, we anticipate that global core CPI (ex China and TĆ¼rkiye) will rise at a 3%ar in 1H25, in line with its 2024 outcome. Alongside a firming in core goods inflation, services inflation looks set to continue but should be limited and divergent across countries. Our bias is for a larger Euro area inflation slide vis a vis the US and UK, while EM is likely to remain differentiated. Tariffs add to upside risk and will provide a further test of persistent inflation and psychology.

    Speakers

    Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economist

    Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist

    This podcast was recorded on February 05, 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

    https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4795397-0

    https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4895168-0

    for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

    Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Exceptionalism that disproves the rule

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Exceptionalism that disproves the rule

    · Global Data Pod

    In a week of news regarding ongoing resilient growth and still-solid inflation, our key call of a Trump-lite policy outcome this year is being severely challenged with the confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Such an outturn would not only weigh more heavily on the global outlook but also undermine the US expansion given the centrality of the USā€™s most important trading partners. Amid a flurry of central bank meetings, we largely got what was expected.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Research Rap: North Americaā€™s Fraught Tariff Adventure

    Global Data Pod Research Rap: North America’s Fraught Tariff Adventure

    · Global Data Pod

    Michael Hanson, senior US and Canadian economist, and Gabriel Lozano, Head of Mexico Economics, discuss their latest Research Note on the Trump administrationā€™s threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. They explore the motivations, risks for retaliation, potential economic implications, and consequences for USMCA.

    This podcast was recorded on January 28, 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4894757-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

    Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: All day long in fog and wind

    Global Data Pod Weekender: All day long in fog and wind

    · Global Data Pod

    While absent of immediate trade war, the start of the Trump administration brought little clarity to the US policy path ahead, and we do not change our key calls. Against this backdrop, the global economy is humming along with news supporting our call for global industry to perk up in the coming months. Among the many central banks meeting next week, the Fed (hold) and ECB (-25bp) will be a reminder of the stark divergence between these two economies.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Let the games begin

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Let the games begin

    · Global Data Pod

    Mondayā€™s Inauguration Day in the US will not be a lifting of the policy fog that many are hoping for but rather just the start of a broad set of sweeping policy changes, the effects of which will take months (or longer) to understand. Still, a likely wave of executive orders will begin a period of busy policy and data tracking. Global industry looks to have perked up at year-end but the surveys remain depressed. Tracking the state of global sentiment as it processes the coming flurry of US actions will be particularly important as a leading indicator.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 17 January 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Research Rap: More Trump tariffs

    Global Data Pod Research Rap: More Trump tariffs

    · Global Data Pod

    Jahangir Aziz joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for US trade policy, its impact on the rest of the world and how views on tariffs have evolved in the past month or so. Our 2025 outlook assumes that new tariffs from the Trump administration will be targeted at China. A clear risk to our baseline view is that increases in US tariffs will be more widespread.

    Speakers:Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic and Policy Research Jahangir Aziz, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research

    This podcast was recorded on January 14, 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0,https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4882648-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4885198-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: The known unknowns

    Global Data Pod Weekender: The known unknowns

    · Global Data Pod

    Recent data support our long-standing view for resilient growth, elevated sticky inflation, and constrained central bank easing. The known unknowns around US policy reinforce these views but are also raising financial and macro risks that have both a directional and timing uncertainty.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Kasman

    This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Research Rap: Making Asia vulnerable again

    Global Data Pod Research Rap: Making Asia vulnerable again

    · Global Data Pod

    Sajjid Chinoy joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for EM Asian economies in 2025. The tech cycle upswing, underpinned by AI-related demand, has been crucial to the regionā€™s resilience in 2024. While these tech tailwinds are likely to sustain, the regional outlook for 2025 is heavily clouded by a US-China Trade War 2.0. In contrast to the last US-China trade war, the rest of the region is more vulnerable this time around because activity is still much below the pre-pandemic path and the shock itself is likely to be more acute (potentially larger increase in tariffs with the transshipment escape-valve closed). Moreover, the policy space to respond ā€“ especially on fiscal ā€“ is more constrained this time. So the collateral damage on the region, while differentiated across countries, is likely to be larger than commonly presumed.

    This podcast was recorded on January 09, 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4866513-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

    Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Testing time

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Testing time

    · Global Data Pod

    A number of elements of our high-for-long rate narrative will be tested by data and policy guidance this quarter. We will receive greater clarity on the direction of US policy where we expect the new administration to eschew extremes on trade and immigration policy while moving forward quickly on regulatory relief. Our expectation for a lift in global industry and firming in goods prices is already being challenged by a disappointing global mfg. PMI. On inflation we do not see a repeat of the past two yearā€™s front-loaded price increases, but look for the persistence of sticky global core CPI gains.

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 3 January 2025.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  • Global Data Pod Weekender: Making a list, checking it twice

    Global Data Pod Weekender: Making a list, checking it twice

    · Global Data Pod

    Global industry is getting a boost from firming final demand. We are bullish for manufacturing in the coming monthsā€”to be supported by next weekā€™s expected December reports on US retail sales and G-4 flash PMI readings. Central banks are still easing but the drivers have turned more domestic. Next weekā€™s projected 25bp Fed cut would bring the 2024 easing cycle to 100bp, despite material upside surprises this year to both growth and core inflation forecasts. (The Weekender will return January 3; Happy holidays to all!)

    Speakers:

    Bruce Kasman

    Joseph Lupton

    This podcast was recorded on 13 December 2024.

    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Ā© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (ā€œJ.P. Morgan Dataā€) in any third-party artificial intelligence (ā€œAIā€) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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