Afleveringen
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As Covid-19 restrictions lifted around the world and countries stopped reporting on case numbers, the events of 2020 and 2021 faded further into our collective memory. Against the threat of looming recession and a war in Europe, it was easy to forget the turmoil brought on by the pandemic. Then, in January 2023, China announced it was reopening its borders and abandoning quarantine measures. After 3 years, in which the entire population was locked down without regard for cost or consequence, China was open for business. It's ‘zero-Covid’ policy hit its economy hard. GDP in 2022 slumped to its lowest growth rate in almost half a century. Energy demand was affected as a result: LNG imports slumped 20% year-on-year, as did oil consumption.
At the opening of the National People’s Congress in early March, outgoing Premier Li Keqiang announced a growth target of around 5% for 2023. Will China’s reconnection with the global economy provide enough of a boost in trade and investment? Under Wood Mackenzie’s base-case scenario, we now expect China’s economy to grow 5.5% this year.
On the podcast today, we look at the possible pathways to growth for the Chinese economy, and the impact of its reopening on energy supply, markets and prices.
Joining Liz Dennett are Alan Gelder and Massimo Di-Odoardo. Alan is Vice President of Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie. Massimo is Vice President of Global Gas and LNG Research at Wood Mackenzie.
Find out more and read the full Horizons report here
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The world is not going to run out of oil and gas any time soon. Total oil and gas resources are more than likely to double demand by 2050, with gas reserves sitting at 1.5 trillion oil-barrel equivalents. It’s the quality of this supply that’s the issue. Advantaged resources (price resilient and low emissions) could only be enough to supply half the demand by 2050. So what can companies do to mitigate this shortage? Diversification will be important, and investment in renewal, decarbonisation and low-carbon alternatives even more so. So what needs to be done? Upstream companies must act now, but where do they start? On the podcast today, we look at the options. Exploration of new fields, decarbonising existing assets and investment in low-carbon alternatives are all on the table.
Liz Dennett is joined by Valentina Kretzschmar, Head of Energy Transition at Capricorn Energy. Valentina leads Capricorn’s net zero strategy. On the show she outlines the distinctions between emissions goals and forecasts, and explores the ever-changing role of oil and gas in the energy transition. Also joining Liz is Andrew Latham, Vice-President of Energy Research at Wood Mackenzie. Andrew provides upstream and exploration analysis, examining the trends that are shaping the industry and outlining the steps companies will likely take in the coming decades, as energy diversification evolves.
Read the February Horizons report at woodmac.com/horizons, and subscribe to the show wherever you get your podcasts.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Without doubt, 2022 will be remembered as one of the most pivotal years in the history of power generation. It was the year that highlighted the folly of concentrated supply.
In Europe, the war in Ukraine raised energy security issues caused by heavy reliance on Russian gas. At the same time, China’s dominance of the solar and energy storage supply chains posed national security questions for energy policy planners.
These concerns have spurred European and North American policy makers to reshape renewable energy industry supply chains to reduce dependence on imported equipment.
On the 16 August 2022, the United States took its first and most significant step to reshape the renewables supply chain, with President Biden’s signing of the Inflation Reduction Act. Two key provisions are likely to be game- changing for equipment manufacturers. First, the Act provides a tax credit, known as the advanced manufacturing production credits (AMPC), for US-made renewable equipment.
Second, it incentivises developers of US renewable projects to purchase domestically produced equipment by providing an additional tax credit if they meet domestic content requirement (DCR) thresholds.
On the podcast, host Liz Dennett is joined by Horizons report author Daniel Liu, Head of Asset Commercial Performance at Wood Mackenzie, and Melissa Lott, Director of Research at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.
Together they explore the implications for manufacturers, developers and investors off the back of the historic climate bill.
Read the full report here: https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/
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On this special episode of the Horizons podcast our host Dr Liz Dennett is joined by Carolyn Comer, President at Shell Energy Americas and Simon Flowers, Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
How do we shape the future of energy? We know where we need to be - at net zero - but there isn’t just one path to get there. Decarbonising the global economy will require a multi-pronged approach. We’ll need to change the way we power our planet, by revolutionising the grid and investing in the right places.
On this episode we discuss how Shell Energy are setting their sights on a zero emission future. Their plans for the coming decades involve investment in innovative technologies, development of infrastructure and optimising the next generation of energy grids.
The Horizons podcast is brought to you by Shell Energy, who are helping guide businesses through their energy transition by offering a tailored energy roadmap, and solutions across the energy value chain. Learn more at ShellEnergy.com/business
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After a year of harrowing news from across the world, a war in Ukraine and an energy crisis driving a global recession, the final Horizons of the year will outline 5 causes for optimism in the world of energy. Developments in policy and investment, a year after COP26, are laying the foundation for decades of sustainable growth in energy and natural resources.
In the final Horizons podcast of 2022, our host Dr Liz Dennett is joined by Ed Crooks, Vice-Chair, Americas and host of the Energy Gang podcast and Kavita Jadhav, Research Director, Corporate Research.
As the year comes to an end, we discuss five developments that suggest that, despite the setbacks of the past year, the world is laying the foundations for a decade or more of sustained opportunity that will deliver better outcomes for the reliability, affordability and sustainability of our energy and natural resources:
1. Global recognition of the need for energy stability
2. US LNG
3. Oil prices and the future of refining
4. Fossil fuel investment
5. Decarbonising electricity
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Industrial ammonia is a key part of modern life. As a basis of nitrogen fertilisers, as fibres for our clothes, as the cleaning products we use and to refrigerate our food and cool our homes, ammonia’s impact goes beyond just food production. As we race to decarbonise, the energy-intensive means of ammonia production need to be addressed. Low-carbon ammonia has a place in the energy transition, but without guaranteed demand the industry will be reluctant to commit. Policymakers have the power to build the low-carbon ammonia market, a necessary step to ensure existing producers evolve, or else face the consequences as the world reaches out for net zero.
On the podcast this month, Liz is joined by Wood Mackenzie's Mariana Moreria, Principal Research Analyst, who explains the types of ammonia, where it's used and how it's currently produced. Also joining is Magnus Ankarstrand, President of Clean Ammonia at Yara, who explores ammonia as an energy source, its implications for decarbonising the shipping industry, and the policies and industry practices that will use ammonia to further the energy transition.
To find out more, please visit woodmac.com/horizons.
This program is brought to you by Shell Energy, who is helping guide businesses through their energy transition by offering a tailored energy roadmap, and solutions across the energy value chain. Learn more at ShellEnergy.com slash business
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As we move towards net zero, we’ll see a huge increase in EV and renewable energy production. Metals will be a linchpin of a zero-carbon economy.
Copper – in the form of wire, cable and foil – will bind and connect the batteries, motors and electrical networks that we’ll need for vehicles, solar panels and storage. However, the pull on the world’s resources to achieve this structural change will be transformational, dwarfing the demand increases we have seen over the past 30 years.
If the world is to successfully decarbonise by mid-century and achieve net zero emissions, limiting the rise in temperature to 1.5 C, the likelihood of delivering enough copper to meet demand is low. Low-carbon copper demand over the next 20 years would be equivalent to 60% of the current market size.
On the podcast, Liz is joined by Bernard Respaut, Chief Executive of the European Copper Institute, and Nick Pickens, Research Director at Wood Mackenzie, to analyse how governments, manufacturers and consumers will adapt to drive the energy transition by supplying the raw materials.
To find out more, please visit woodmac.com/horizons.
This program is brought to you by Shell Energy, who is helping guide businesses through their energy transition by offering a tailored energy roadmap, and solutions across the energy value chain. Learn more at ShellEnergy.com slash business
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From iron ore to steel manufacturing, the industry is highly carbon intensive.
Wood Mac estimates that meeting global steel demand will require 2.2 billion tonnes of production by 2050. Achieving net zero emissions by 2050 will be a huge challenge. To achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, the decarbonisation of the iron and steel sectors will require approx. $1.4 trillion of investment.
From China to Europe, more aggressive carbon taxing could be needed. With 60% of steel production coming from China, Beijing must implement carbon pricing and taxation to address the high carbon footprint.
To achieve net zero by 2050, three quarters of steel production will have to use low-carbon technologies. Decarbonising steel production will require massive change at each stage of the supply chain. Renewable power, hydrogen and CCUS will benefit from the steel industry’s move towards net zero.
On the podcast: Dr Liz Dennett is joined by Baris Cifti, Director at World Steel, and Malan Wu, Head of Steel & Raw Material Markets at Wood Mackenzie, to discuss the state of the market, the risks and opportunities for industry in achieving net zero, and how companies, governments, policy-makers and citizens can achieve that goal.
This program is brought to you by Shell Energy, who is helping guide businesses through their energy transition by offering a tailored energy roadmap, and solutions across the energy value chain. Learn more at ShellEnergy.com slash business
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Liquid biofuels should play a key role in the energy transition. Bio-based sustainable diesel and aviation fuels could emit 80% less carbon than cruide-oil based products. But how do we make it happen?
Food-based feedstocks are risky because of the need to minimise the risk of food shortages, but there are alternatives: non-food feedstocks and new technologies could produce enough biofuel to power a quarter of all liquid fuel demand by 2050.
Waste, agricultural residue and recycling waste plastics could be game-changers and drive biofuel adoption.
As ever, policy making must lead the charge in change. It will be in the national interest; biofuels can help achieve net-zero targets and boost energy security. Meanwhile, local governments could convert fossil-fuel based refineries into sustainable businesses that underpin local employment.
On the podcast, Liz is joined by Alan Gelder from Wood Mackenzie. Alan is Vice-President Refining, Chemicals & Oil Markets. Alan is responsible for formulating Wood Mackenzie’s research outlook and integrated cross-sector perspectives on the global downstream sector.
Also on the show, we're delighted to welcome John Cooper, Director-General of Fuels Europe and Concawe. Fuels Europe represents the interests of 40 companies operating refineries in Europe, and liaises with EU institutions to promote economically and environmentally sustainable refining.
Read the Horizons report at www.woodmac.com/horizons
Find out more at www.fuelseurope.eu and www.concawe.eu/low-carbon-pathways
You can also visit www.cleanfuelsforall.eu. This is the policy work done by FuelsEurope to support the fuels industry, in the way that they are investing and developing the low carbon pathways described in the Concawe work.
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Over 90% of current oil and gas production comes from around 40 traditional ‘super basins.’
Across the preceding decades, production came from these traditional super basins – giant fields and established infrastructure which guaranteed the lowest costs for supply.
Now the world’s demand for lower emissions is forcing change on this legacy industry. Some basins are fit for the future and some are not. Low cost and low carbon resources must become the future of oil and gas. Some traditional super basins will evolve into what we’ll call the Energy Super Basins of the future, and some will be left behind.
For the upstream industry to become more sustainable, it must focus on resources co-located with both plentiful clean electricity and CCS potential. These are the Energy Super Basins of the future. The remaining traditional basins are disadvantaged and face being left behind.
On the podcast: host Liz Dennett is joined by Andrew Latham, Vice President of Energy Research, to explore how traditional super basins can and must transition to new ‘energy super basins’; a mix of plentiful renewable electricity, established oil and gas resources and Hub-scale CCS.
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War has catapulted energy security to the very top of the political agenda. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a geopolitical quake, the shockwaves of which will be felt for decades.
What are the consequences of the war for commodities? How can governments, companies and investors respond to the changing energy landscape? How will they react to investment opportunities opening up even as costs rise at unprecedented rates?
On the podcast: we discuss how the war has reshaped the commodities world. Energy trade flows are being transformed, investment in new LNG supply looks more compelling and the pace and, crucially, cost of the energy transition is changing.
Joining regular host Liz Dennett are Derek Brower, US Energy Editor at the Financial Times, Massimo Di-Odoardo, Vice President, Gas and LNG Research at Wood Mackenzie, and Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President, Oils Research at Wood Mackenzie.
Read the report here: https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/
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Offshore wind is poised to become one of the key technologies powering the decarbonisation of the global economy. The technology is proven, and investors and policy makers have confidence in it.
It’s a US$ 1 trillion opportunity – that amount is predicted to flow into offshore wind projects over the next decade. Costs fell 50% between 2015 and 2020 and are expected to fall further. Total installed capacity is likely to increase from 35GW in 2020 to 330 GW in 2030.
Offshore wind is one of the lowest CO2 emitting renewable technologies per KWh, but there are opportunities to reduce this; the environmental impact of the turbines is also an issue to be addressed.
In this episode: we look at why offshore wind provides such an opportunity, the criteria for tenders to be awarded in various markets, and the role offshore wind will play in the energy transition alongside hydrogen and solar.
Host Liz Dennett is joined by Ricardo Rocha from BayWA, Michel Kurstjens from Sif Group, and Horizons report author Søren Lassen - Head of Offshore Wind Research at Wood Mackenzie.
For more information please visit woodmac.com/horizons.
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The crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the most significant shock to world energy markets since the Arab oil embargo and OPEC price rises of 1973-74. Like the crisis of the early 1970s, it is forcing a fundamental rethink of the outlook for energy, as governments and businesses reassess their views of Russia’s role as a supplier to the world.
As in the 1970s, the immediate crisis has been years in the making. Energy demand increases post-Covid combined with a series of disruptions to supply, helped drive up the prices of oil, gas, coal and power.
The big difference from the 1970s is that, today, the world is trying simultaneously to address another problem: the threat of catastrophic climate change. To achieve the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to within 1.5 °C from pre-industrial levels, global greenhouse gas emissions need to start falling now and drop to net zero by 2050.
In this edition of Horizons, we explore five lessons that can be learned from the recent upheavals in energy markets.
Regular host Dr Liz Dennett is joined by 3 distinguished guests: Amy Myers-Jaffe, Research Professor and Managing Director of the Climate Policy Lab, Prakash Sharma, Vice-President, Multi-Commodity Research at Wood Mackenzie, and Massimo Di-Odoardo, Vice-President, Gas and LNG Research at Wood Mac.
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The future of energy is electric. As the world strides towards net zero amid unrelenting climate change, electricity networks will become even more critical to the modern economy.
Nearly 800 million people globally live without access to any electricity, three-quarters of them in Sub-Saharan Africa. Almost half of the world’s population lives without ‘reasonably reliable’ access to power, with frequent outages interrupting their daily lives.
Sub-Saharan Africa has a persistent lack of electricity access in part due to massive underinvestment in electricity infrastructure. Most of its public electric utilities are loss-making, with limited ability to maintain existing assets or invest in new ones. This hampers top-down growth in power supply and improvements in the availability, reliability and affordability of power.
In adversity lies opportunity. Wood Mackenzie estimates that achieving universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030 presents a US$350 billion opportunity, nearly one-fifth of it off the grid. Decentralised, bottom-up, solar-and-storage grids could not only reshape Africa’s energy future but carry important lessons for the next generation of thinking on utility business models globally.
In this, the March edition of Horizons, Dr Liz Dennett is joined by William Brent and Benjamin Attia. William is Chief Marketing Officer at Husk Power Systems. Husk is an advanced energy services company that accelerates access to clean, modern and affordable electricity in Africa and Asia, by developing and operating renewable energy minigrids. Benjamin Attia, author of this month’s Horizons report, and Senior Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, explores the future of energy in Africa and explain Wood Mac’s ‘Utility 3.0’ tool for analyzing infrastructure.
As demand grows in Sub-Saharan Africa, how they respond to it will fundamentally reshape the trajectory of global electricity demand. The evolution of the utility business model is an essential piece in the energy transition puzzle. Decentralised, bottom-up, solar-and-storage grids could not only reshape Africa’s energy future, but carry important lessons for utility business models around the world.
Read the report and listen to our other Horizons podcasts at https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/
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Solar and wind (supported by battery storage) are attracting the lion’s share of near-term energy transition investment. Costs for both have tumbled over the past decade as manufacturing capacity has exploded.
But 2021 reversed this as solar module prices rose by as much as a quarter last year, while wind turbine prices grew 10-15%. Battery costs will rise in 2022 for the first time in a decade.
Record commodity and transport costs, raw-material supply constraints and logistical bottlenecks are the culprits, Rising costs have led developers to consider delays or cancellations tapping the breaks on the growth of renewables just as many countries commit more ambitious emissions reductions.
China’s renewables manufacturers and project developers emerged from 2021 bigger and more competitive than ever before as power demand drive investment to record levels. Building more, faster and cheaper than anyone else, China has become the Ikea of the energy transition.
In February's Horizons podcast, Dr Liz Dennett is joined by Andy Klump, the founder and CEO of Clean Energy Associates. Andy has over 20 years' experience in high tech renewable sectors, 18 of which are in solar PV.
Also on the show: Alex Whitworth - Head of Asia Pacific Power & Renewables Research at Wood Mackenzie. Alex has over 10 years’ experience in the energy industry in China and Asia, including roles at McKinsey, GE and IHS Markit.
February’s Horizons podcast identifies what has driven this growth in China’s renewables, how sustainable it is likely to prove and how countries and companies can respond.
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Limiting climate warming to a global average of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels is imperative if the environmental and humanitarian crises wrought by extreme temperature increases are to be avoided.
In this episode, Dr Liz Dennett is joined by Monique Motty, Master of Public Administration Candidate, Edward Mason fellow and Louis & Gabrielle Bacon environmental leadership fellow at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. Monique has worked internationally as a technical expert over the past decade on projects and policies focused on climate technologies, clean energy transition, and green finance mostly in African countries. She worked for a multilateral development bank, an international think tank, a national forest entity, and various UN agencies.
Also on the show: Peter Martin, Director of Macroeconomics at Wood Mackenzie. Peter has a Masters with Honours in Economics from the University of Glasgow, as well as an MSc in Economic Management & Policy at Strathclyde Business School. Responsible for producing Wood Mackenzie’s macroeconomic outlook to 2050, Peter is experienced in forecasting key macroeconomic metrics such as GDP, Industrial Production, FX and inflation.
Accelerating the energy transition is essential. In doing so, there'll be winners and losers when it comes to GDP.
An accelerated transition could however pay off in the end, in economic terms. It is likely to lead to stronger economic growth rates for some economies beyond 2030, enabling losses to be recouped before the end of the century. That is the essence of transition economics – short-term pain for (very) long-term gain.
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Plastic is the miracle material of the modern world. Production has surged more than 1,000% over the past 50 years, thanks to its near-infinite flexibility as a material, its cost effectiveness and scalability. However, the ubiquity of plastic and its carbon-intensive feedstocks are a major barrier standing in the way of a net-zero world.
Just as the human body can't sustain itself on a diet of junk food, the current consumption model was bound to cause problems. Low-cost, disposable materials that are near impervious to breakdown in nature were always going to fur up the planet’s arteries in the form of waste, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air pollution and water consumption.
In this episode of Horizons, Dr Liz Dennett is joined by Dr Lars Borger from Neste, and Guy Bailey from Wood Mackenzie to put the plastic industry under the microscope. How can we create a sustainable plastic value chain? What are the issues with biodegradability? How do new materials hinder recycling efforts? These questions and more are explored in episode 3 of Horizons, from Wood Mackenzie.
Find out more about Neste here: https://www.neste.com/sustainability
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Electrification is at the heart of the changing energy mix on the road to net zero, but it can only take the world so far. Heavy-duty industries like shipping and aviation will need fuel alternatives, and that’s where hydrogen comes in. Hydrogen is a viable clean energy alternative, and countries are starting to prepare for global adoption.
In this episode we examine the trends in the renewable energy market and what they mean for the future of energy. We’ll look at how alternative fuels such as hydrogen will be utilised in the future, and we’ll explore how hydrogen supply chains will need to be formed to supply the world.
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The energy transition is complex, and it can be hard to know where to turn for information. If you’re a leader, a decision maker, or someone that has a stake in the future of energy and natural resources, then join us on Horizons, a podcast from Wood Mackenzie that explores the world of tomorrow. We'll explore the themes shaping the energy and natural resources landscape, bringing you crucial insights, new perspectives and bold forecasts.
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US President Joe Biden has set a transformative goal of achieving net zero in the US power sector by 2035. Ahead of the goal of net zero in the broader economy by 2050, this highly ambitious target comes on the heels of Europe's net zero emissions target and the UN Climate Change Conference in November. Can the US meet its mandate? Technological limitations, policy design, market structures and even the political and constitutional foundations of the United States create roadblocks that will impede the pace of progress. It will take enormous effort to achieve, but the process of meeting the goals will bring about major change in the US market that will help lower global carbon emissions.
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