Afleveringen
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Monday 16 September 2024
Indonesia is in the countdown to the October presidential transition from Joko Widodo (Jokowi) to Prabowo Subianto, who won a decisive victory in the April presidential election. Hugely ambitious and popular, Jokowi leaves a complex legacy, including strained democratic institutions, the politicisation of the police and military, and an at times transactional foreign policy that benefited China’s standing.
The panel drew on perspectives presented at the 2024 Australian National University Indonesia Update conference to explore the legacy of Jokowi’s presidency and the direction that Prabowo may now seek to steer Indonesia.
Eve Warburton is a senior lecturer at the Department of Political and Social Change in the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, and Director of ANU's Indonesia Institute at the College of Asia and the Pacific. Her research is concerned broadly with problems of representation, governance, and business-state relations, in young and developing democracies, with a regional focus on Southeast Asia and Indonesia in particular. She has published in leading disciplinary and area studies journals on these topics, and her first book manuscript, Resource Nationalism in Indonesia: Booms, Big Business and the State, was published by Cornell University Press in late 2023.
Sidney Jones is Senior Adviser to the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) in Jakarta, a non-governmental research organization she founded in 2013. She served as director from 2013 to 2021, when she returned to New York. From 2002 to 2013, Jones worked with the International Crisis Group in Jakarta, first as Southeast Asia project director, then from 2007 as senior adviser to the Asia program. Before joining Crisis Group, she worked for the Ford Foundation in Jakarta and New York (1977-84); Amnesty International in London as the Indonesia-Philippines-Pacific researcher (1985-88); and Human Rights Watch in New York as the Asia director (1989-2002). She took a leave from the latter position in 2000 to serve as chief of the human rights office of the United Nations Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET). Jones holds a B.A. and M.A. from the University of Pennsylvania.
Marcus Mietzner is Associate Professor at the Department of Political and Social Change, Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs at the Australian National University in Canberra. He has published extensively on Indonesian politics, including in peer-reviewed international journals such as Democratization, International Political Science Review, Governance, Journal of Democracy, Contemporary Politics, Australian Journal of International Affairs, Journal of Contemporary Asia and Critical Asian Studies. His latest book is "The Coalitions Presidents Make: Presidential Power and its Limits in Democratic Indonesia" (Cornell University Press, 2023). He is currently writing a book on the Jokowi presidency, based on a series of interviews with the outgoing president and other key actors.
Rizal Sukma is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia. Previously, he was Indonesia’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Ireland and the International Maritime Organization (IMO), London, from 2016 to 2020. He joined CSIS in 1990 as a researcher and assumed the role of Executive Director in 2009 until 2015. Dr Sukma also served as Chairman of International Relations, Muhammadiyah Central Executive Board (2005-2015). Since receiving a PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) in 1997, he has worked extensively on such issues as Southeast Asian security, ASEAN, Indonesia’s defense and foreign policy, military reform, Islam and politics, and domestic political changes in Indonesia.
The panel was moderated by Susannah Patton, Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute.
All Lowy Institute public events are on the record and open for media attendance.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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On Tuesday 10 September we had a conversation with the President of the World Bank Group, Ajay Banga, on key global economic challenges, what this means for Australia and the Asia-Pacific, and how the World Bank, governments, private sector, and civil society can work together to make the investments needed to end poverty and boost shared prosperity on a liveable planet. Dr Michael Fullilove hosted this discussion, which also featured questions from the audience.
Ajay Banga began his five-year term as World Bank President in June 2023. He most recently served as Vice Chairman at General Atlantic. Previously, he was President and CEO of Mastercard. He was Honorary Chairman of the International Chamber of Commerce, serving as Chairman from 2020-2022. He became an advisor to General Atlantic’s climate-focused fund, BeyondNetZero, at its inception in 2021. Banga served as Co-Chair of the Partnership for Central America, a coalition of private organisations that works to advance economic opportunity across underserved populations in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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On Tuesday 3 September 2024 we had a conversation with Sean Turnell about his latest book, Best Laid Plans, a unique first-hand account of the radical reforms implemented in Myanmar under the ill-fated civilian government of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. These reforms, designed both to turn around Myanmar’s dire economy and lay the economic foundations for democracy, were brought to a dramatic end following the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021. Sean Turnell was one of Suu Kyi’s key economic advisers who was imprisoned alongside her in the wake of the coup.
The event was moderated by the Lowy Institute’s Hervé Lemahieu and will include questions from the audience.
Dr Sean Turnell is a Senior Fellow in the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute. He has been a Senior Economic Analyst at the Reserve Bank of Australia, a policy adviser to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and is a Professor of Economics at Macquarie University. From 2016 to 2021, he served as the senior economic adviser to Myanmar’s democratic government, led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.
Hervé Lemahieu is the Director of Research at the Lowy Institute.A copy of the book is included in the ticket price.Refreshments will be served.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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From deals on policing in Solomon Islands to building parliamentary complexes in Vanuatu, China’s outreach and activities in the Pacific Islands region appear indefatigable.
In the words of Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Canberra and its partners are locked in a "state of permanent contest" with Beijing over influence in the region.
Previously undervalued by larger powers, Pacific Islanders must now grapple with the realities of a region subjected to intense geopolitical competition.
Our panel analysed the rapidly evolving regional security environment and the implications for Australia and the wider Pacific Islands region.
The panel was moderated by Hervé Lemahieu, Director of Research at the Lowy Institute, with expert speakers including:
• Richard McGregor, Senior Fellow for East Asia, Lowy Institute
• Oliver Nobetau, FDC Pacific Research Fellow, Lowy Institute
• Dr Anna Powles, Associate Professor at the Centre for Defence and Security Studies, Massey University, New Zealand
• Mihai Sora, Director of the Pacific Islands Program, Lowy InstituteSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Eminent military historian and strategist Sir Lawrence Freedman talks with the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen about whether there is a plausible path towards peace or a ceasefire, the implications of a Trump Administration on support for Ukraine’s war effort, whether Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets are working, and innovations on the battlefield. Roggeveen also asks Freedman: what did you get wrong in your early analysis of the war? Recorded on Wednesday 24 July 2024
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Thursday 15 August 2024
The Lowy Institute was delighted to host the Rt Hon Christopher Luxon, Prime Minister of New Zealand, for a special foreign policy address on Thursday 15 August.
Rt Hon Christopher Luxon is the 42nd Prime Minister of New Zealand. Since coming to power in October 2023, Prime Minister Luxon has focused closely on issues of foreign, defence and trade policy, including re-engaging and reinvigorating New Zealand’s relationships with traditional and like-minded partners. He is also the Minister for National Security and Intelligence and the Minister Responsible for Ministerial Services. He entered Parliament at the 2020 election as the MP for Botany and was elected Leader of the National Party in November 2021.
Prior to entering Parliament, Prime Minister Luxon enjoyed a long career in the private sector: as Chief Executive Officer of Air New Zealand from 2013 to 2019, and at Unilever where he worked in New Zealand, Australia, the UK, the USA and Canada.
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As the United States approaches a pivotal presidential election, how do Australians view our security ally? After two years of official re-engagement, have Australians’ perceptions of China changed? What should the government do about climate change, and how do Australians feel about renewable and nuclear energy?
Now in its 20th edition, the Lowy Institute’s flagship annual poll is the longest-running and broadest survey of Australian public opinion on the world. For two decades, it has revealed changing attitudes and played an influential role in the public debate on foreign policy.The Hon Tim Watts MP opened our event, after which an expert panel unpacked the results of the 2024 Lowy Institute Poll and discussed how Australians see their place in the world.
The Hon Tim Watts MP, Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs, was elected to the House of Representatives as the Federal Member for Gellibrand in 2013 and has served as Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs since 2022.
Ryan Neelam is the Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Lowy Institute and the author of the 2024 Lowy Institute Poll. He previously served as an Australian diplomat in Hong Kong and at the United Nations, New York.
Michelle Lyons is a Research Fellow in the Lowy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Centre where she works on international climate change policy and climate finance. She has more than a decade of experience in the public service and at ANU working on international and domestic climate change policy and is a recipient of the prestigious Sir Roland Wilson Scholarship.
Sam Roggeveen (moderator) is Director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Program. He was the founding editor of The Interpreter, is editor of the Lowy Institute Papers, and is the author of The Echidna Strategy: Australia’s Search for Power and Peace. Before joining the Lowy Institute, Sam was a senior analyst in Australia's peak intelligence agency, the Office of National Assessments.
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What do the maritime security challenges close to Australia mean for the country's future?
We were joined in discussion with Rebecca Strating and Joanne Wallis on their new book Girt by Sea: Reimagining Australia's Security, which looks at six maritime domains central to the country's national interests and offers an alternative vision for how Australia should understand its strategic challenges.
The authors discussed their reasons for reimagining how Australia should understand its strategic challenges, focusing on finding security in the north seas (the Timor, Arafura and Coral Seas and the Torres Strait), the Western Pacific, the South China Sea, the South Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the Southern Ocean.
Rebecca Strating and Joanne Wallis spoke in conversation with Hervé Lemahieu, Director of Research at the Lowy Institute.
Professor Rebecca Strating is the Director of La Trobe Asia and a Professor of International Relations at La Trobe University, Melbourne. Her research focuses primarily on Asian regional security, maritime disputes, and Australian foreign and defence policy.
Professor Joanne Wallis is Professor of International Security in the Department of Politics and International Relations, and Director of the Security in the Pacific Islands research program, at the University of Adelaide. She is also a Nonresident Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution.
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Weeks prior to the assassination attempt against Donald Trump, the Lowy Institute hosted global terrorism expert Professor Bruce Hoffman for a podcast with Program Director Lydia Khalil. They spoke about the future prospects of political violence in the United States and discussed Hoffman’s latest book, God, Guns, and Sedition, which traces the trajectory of terrorism, particularly far-right terrorism, in the United States and assesses its present day dangers, its relationship with mainstream politics, and the harm it poses to US and global security.
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On Tuesday 25 June 2024 we held an event at the National Press Club for the launch of a new Lowy Institute Analysis paper that makes the strategic case for AUKUS, written by one of the government’s most knowledgeable and experienced defence thinkers. Luke Gosling argued that nuclear-powered submarines will be central to Australia’s ability to defeat threats of attack, counter a naval blockade, and support the regional balance of power. Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles launched the paper, after which Luke Gosling made his case for nuclear-powered submarines, before being joined on stage by Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove AM for questions, including from the audience.
Luke Gosling OAM MP has served as the Member for Solomon since 2016. He served in the Australian Army for 13 years in the Parachute Infantry, Commandos, and Defence Cooperation Programs. He deployed to Papua New Guinea, Rifle Company Butterworth, Malaysia, and Timor-Leste, as well as working in Afghanistan.
Richard Marles MP is the Deputy Prime Minister of Australia, Minister for Defence, and the Federal Member for Corio. Richard was first elected to the House of Representatives in 2007. Refreshments and Hot canapés will be provided.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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On Friday 14 June 2024 we had our inaugural lecture in honour of Allan Gyngell, the first Executive Director of the Lowy Institute and one of Australia’s most respected foreign policy thinkers. Allan’s friend and contemporary, Ric Smith, delivered the Lecture on the subject of statecraft — a notion dear to Allan, and one that reaches beyond routine foreign policy and diplomacy and implies vision, a sense of history, and a strategic appreciation of a nation’s place in the world.
Ric Smith AO joined the Department of External Affairs in 1969. He served in Australia’s diplomatic missions in India, Israel, the Philippines and Hawaii and then as Ambassador to China and Mongolia (1996–2000) and later Indonesia (2001–2002). He was Secretary of the Department of Defence from 2002 to 2006. From 2009 to 2013, he was Australia’s Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. He was appointed as an Officer of the Order of Australia in 1998, and awarded a Public Service Medal in 2002 for his service in response to the Bali bombing. The Allan Gyngell Lecture honours Allan Gyngell AO (1947–2023), the first Executive Director of the Lowy Institute (2003–09). Allan was the Director-General of the Office of National Assessments, Australia’s peak intelligence analysis agency, from 2009 to 2013. He was later the National President of the Australian Institute of International Affairs and an honorary professor in the ANU’s College of Asia and the Pacific. Allan joined the Department of External Affairs in 1969, with postings in Rangoon, Singapore and Washington, DC. He headed the international division in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet and served as international adviser to Prime Minister Paul Keating. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Myanmar’s civil war has entered a crucial phase. While the junta remains firmly ensconced in the centre, a series of stunning victories by its opponents has severely diminished the reach of the military regime into the borderlands. A constellation of anti-junta forces has started delivering public services in “liberated areas” where they are in effect governing millions of people.
On Monday 20 May 2024, we launched the Lowy Institute Analysis paper, Outrage is not a policy: Coming to terms with Myanmar’s fragmented state, by Dr Morten Pedersen. The paper calls for international assistance for “parallel state-building”, focused on strengthening the capabilities of a wide range of emerging political authorities and community-based organisations to carry out traditional state functions.
This launch event was moderated by Hervé Lemahieu, Director of Research at the Lowy Institute.
Dr Morten B. Pedersen is Senior Lecturer in International Politics at the University of New South Wales Canberra (Australian Defence Force Academy) and former senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Myanmar.
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The Treasurer spoke on the domestic and international economy, and the government’s agenda to position Australia as an indispensable part of the global economy. After his remarks, the Lowy Institute's Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove AM chaired a Q&A session with the Treasurer.
The Hon Dr Jim Chalmers MP is the Treasurer of Australia. He has been the Member for Rankin in the House of Representatives since 2013. He served as Shadow Treasurer from 2019 to 2022, and Shadow Minister for Finance from 2016 to 2019. Prior to Dr Chalmers’ election to parliament, he was the Executive Director of the Chifley Research Centre and Chief of Staff to the Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer. He has a PhD in political science and international relations from the Australian National University and a first-class honours degree in public policy from Griffith University and is a qualified company director.
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A conversation with Admiral John Aquilino on the increasing dangers in the Indo-Pacific, the bilateral relationship between Australia and the United States, and the importance of the AUKUS security partnership. Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove moderated the discussion, which also featured questions from the audience.
Admiral John Aquilino is the 26th Commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, responsible for all US military activities in the Indo-Pacific, covering 36 nations, 14 time zones, and more than 50 per cent of the world's population. Aquilino graduated from the US Naval Academy in 1984 and earned his wings in August 1986. He served in numerous fighter squadrons, graduated from Navy Fighter Weapons School (TOPGUN), and completed Harvard Kennedy School's executive education program in national and international security. Prior to his assignment to US Indo-Pacific Command, Aquilino served as the 36th Commander of US Pacific Fleet.
RECORDED:
Tuesday 9 April 2024See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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A conversation between chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times Gideon Rachman and the Lowy Institute’s Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove AM. They discussed the wars, summits and elections that will shape the international agenda in 2024, as well as the decision-makers and presidential aspirants who are influencing world affairs.
Gideon Rachman is chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times and a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute. Known for his witty and authoritative analysis of global affairs, he is the author of multiple books including most recently The Age of the Strongman: How the Cult of the Leader Threatens Democracy Around the World. Gideon joined the FT after a 15-year career at The Economist, which included assignments as a foreign correspondent in Brussels, Washington, DC, and Bangkok. He is a former Lowy Institute Rothschild & Co Distinguished International Fellow and delivered the 2022 Lowy Institute Media Lecture.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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The Hon Anthony Albanese MP is the 31st Prime Minister of Australia. Since the election of his government in May 2022, Prime Minister Albanese has focused closely on issues of foreign policy, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Australia’s relations with allies and key regional partners.
The Lowy Lecture is the Institute’s flagship event and one of the world’s leading lecture series, at which a prominent individual reflects on Australia and the world. Past Lecturers include German Chancellor Angela Merkel; UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson; US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan; Lowy Institute Chairman Sir Frank Lowy; and several Australian prime ministers including Prime Minister John Howard, who delivered the inaugural Lowy Lecture in 2005.
This year marks the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Lowy Institute.
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James Marape, Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea, spoke about strengthening Papua New Guinea's economy, climate change, and PNG’s place in the world.
After his remarks, the Prime Minister spoke in conversation with the Lowy Institute's Executive Director, Dr Michael Fullilove AM.
James Marape has served as Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea since May 2019 and as a Member of Parliament representing the electorate of Tari-Pori Open in Hela Province since 2007.
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The exceptional success of Western (chiefly American) intelligence in anticipating that Russia would attack Ukraine in February 2022 was only matched by the no less exceptional failure to adequately assess Russian and Ukrainian military capacity. There are lessons not only about what matters in assessing military performance, but also about the ways in which expert communities can, and do, sabotage themselves.
Eliot A. Cohen is Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Robert E. Osgood Professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. His books include, most recently, The Hollow Crown: Shakespeare on How Leaders Rise, Rule, and Fall. From 2007 to 2009, he served as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s senior adviser, focusing chiefly on issues of war and peace, including Iraq and Afghanistan. He is a contributing writer at The Atlantic, and his commentary has appeared in the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and on major television networks.
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To mark the launch of the latest Lowy Institute Paper, Modern Warfare: Lessons from Ukraine, we talk with the author, Sir Lawrence Freedman, about the Ukraine War. Join Lowy Institute analyst Sam Roggeveen for an in-depth discussion in which Sir Lawrence examines questions such as ‘Who is winning?’, ‘Will the West remain unified behind Ukraine?’, and ‘How does this war end?’. To buy Modern Warfare, visit the Penguin Books Australia website.
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A policy address given by the Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Hon Chris Bowen.
Chris Bowen entered Parliament in 2004 and has held a wide range of portfolios including serving as Treasurer, Minister for Human Services, Minister for Immigration and Minister for Financial Services. He served as Interim Leader of the Labor Party and Acting Leader of the Opposition following the 2013 Federal election and served as Shadow Treasurer.
This November, the world's attention will be on the 28th United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP28) on climate change held in Dubai. As countries convene to agree on efforts to mitigate the consequences of climate change, questions arise: what are the implications for Australia and what role does Australia play?
Minister Bowen will speak on the international dynamics affecting global climate action and how Australia’s ambition to become a Renewable Energy Superpower can help the world in the rapid transformation to reach net zero emissions. After his remarks, the Minister spoke in conversation with the Lowy Institute's Executive Director, Dr Michael Fullilove AM.
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