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It’s still known as Black Tuesday almost a century later. In October 1929, the stock market crashes and plunges the world into the Great Depression. At least that’s what we’ve been told and what we all believe. But then why didn’t the Crash of 1987 lead to Great Depression 2? I mean, it didn’t even slow the economy down. Or the dot-com crash. Something is missing. As it turns out, there's a lot missing and so this is the first installment to fill in what Economics leaves out, or plain gets wrong.
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http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/It was a trifecta of disinflation disaster in today's numbers, with Walmart adding to the woes with its own deteriorating environment. Retail sales were more than soft, industrial output fell, but most concerning prices fell sharply - including wholesale services costs crashing the most on record.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Walmart Q1 earnings
https://corporate.walmart.com/content/dam/corporate/documents/newsroom/2025/05/15/walmart-releases-q1-fy26-earnings/q1-fy26-earnings-release.pdfCNN Walmart warns it will raise prices because of tariffs
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/15/business/walmart-prices-tariffsCNBC Walmart CFO says price hikes from tariffs could start later this month, as retailer beats on earnings
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/15/walmart-wmt-q1-2026-earnings.htmlBloomberg US Retail Sales Barely Rise, Suggesting Some Spending Pullback
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/us-retail-sales-barely-rise-suggesting-some-spending-pullbackBloomberg US Producer Prices Fell Unexpectedly in April as Margins Shrank
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/us-producer-prices-fall-unexpectedly-as-margins-declineReuters US manufacturing output falls in April on weak auto production
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-manufacturing-output-falls-april-weak-auto-production-2025-05-15/https://www.eurodollar.university
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Chinese banks cut lending - by a lot - in April, completing the defensive story seen in banking systems all around the world. However, China's is unique in several key aspects, starting with what authorities have been doing trying to change this. The reason why it has come to this for Chinese banks really is not what everyone believes.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Why China Is Hoping $1.6 Trillion Can Fix Its Hidden Debt Problem
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-economy-can-1-6-trillion-help-solve-xi-s-hidden-debt-problemRueters China's property 'whitelist' lifeline stutters amid sector gloom
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-property-whitelist-lifeline-stutters-amid-sector-gloom-2024-05-14/https://www.eurodollar.university
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Microsoft announced another round of layoffs. Coming from a company that isn't struggling nearly as much as most, it's an ominous sign. The April CPI shows why and not just for Microsoft. It instead aligns with the biggest problem in the economy, and that's not inflation which was absent from the report despite the start of tariffs. A surprise to Economists, but not to BED.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Microsoft laying off about 6,000 people, or 3% of its workforce
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/microsoft-is-cutting-3percent-of-workers-across-the-software-company.htmlBloomberg Softer-Than-Expected Inflation Points to Muted Tariff Fallout
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/us-inflation-comes-in-softer-than-forecast-for-another-monthBLS BED/BDM
https://www.bls.gov/bdm/bdmover.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Re-risking accelerated on Wall Street and for many other markets; even bond yields rose. The thinking is if trade wars broke everything, then trade deals fix it. However, the US and China don't have one, And that's only the first of several key misimpressions - starting with the 2018 example. Like then, the incoming data doesn't align with "trade wars broke it."
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Joint Statement on U.S.-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/05/joint-statement-on-u-s-china-economic-and-trade-meeting-in-geneva/Bloomberg US, China to Slash Tariffs During 90-Day Reprieve for Talks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/us-and-china-agree-to-major-reductions-in-tariffs-for-90-daysBloomberg Japan Rules Out Trade Deal With US That Excludes Auto Tariffs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/japan-s-ishiba-says-won-t-do-trade-deal-with-us-excluding-autosSCMP China’s consumer prices fall in April, fuelling fears of deflation
https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3309834/chinas-consumer-prices-fall-april-fuelling-fears-deflationhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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What's in a single number? For this one, a whole lot of confirmation plus warning. Consumer sentiment has famously crashed and this one figure holds the key to why. Everything else that's happening comes down to this single deficiency.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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Canadian payrolls were dismal in April, including the biggest two-month collapse in private jobs since the lockdowns. It isn't just sentiment. While pessimism has soared, results from around the real economy is backing that up with hard data. Not just Canada, also Mexico.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jeremy Rudd Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2021062pap.pdfTranscript Chair Powell Press Conference May 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdfBloomberg Canada Joblessness Hits 6.9% as Tariffs Strike Manufacturing
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-09/canada-adds-7-400-jobs-unemployment-jumps-to-6-9Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report 2025
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/SPG Canada Manufacturing PMI April 2025
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/487ca2cba7784b86aa9d9df3a315d744SPG Canada Services PMI April 2025
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4c356ce1148c420fbee728307ef2b2dchttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Former hardcore hawk, the Bank of England pulled ahead of the Federal Reserve by rejoining the global race to the bottom. And it did so with what is being called a weird three-way split. The split was neither weird nor much of one. Instead what BoE did - and why - has already shown up here in the US. The latest confirmation comes from the Fed's very own data where job fears have exploded for the same reason(s) BoE is acting.
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Bank of England MPR May 2025
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/may-2025FOMC Chair May 2025 press conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oX4RCJJXAM
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Insiders are looking for the exits. Short selling sharks are circling. Regulated banks are majorly exposed to this credit segment, another one deep within the shadows. Could this explain why market signals remain near or at extremes? From swap spreads to gold ratios, there is deflationary everywhere in them and credit default swaps have cast their blame specifically toward banks.
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Bloomberg Short Sellers Bet Against Private Credit Lenders
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-03/short-sellers-bet-against-private-credit-lenders-credit-weeklyIMF Global Financial Stability Report April 2025
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2025/04/22/global-financial-stability-report-april-2025IMF Private Credit
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/04/08/fast-growing-USD2-trillion-private-credit-market-warrants-closer-watchhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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US sovereign CDS prices are soaring, not relenting after jumping during April. While mainstream sources will say that's this dollar-ditching stuff, neither the track record for CDS nor empirical evidence agrees. Government credit default swap premiums are set by one factor, and it has everything to do with the banking system.
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Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin?
https://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp201402.pdfMSCI The CDS Market’s View on US Default
https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/the-cds-market-s-view-on-us/03820087801Bloomberg Oaktree Co-CEO Sees Private Credit Trades as Low as 50 Cents
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-02/oaktree-s-o-leary-says-deep-discounts-arising-in-private-credithttps://www.eurodollar.university
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http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Another major safe haven currency has exploded higher, not just in early April but here in early May. It's gone so far already the local monetary authority has had to intervene. Over in Switzerland, the country report zero inflation for April. Along with the similar behavior of the franc, the Swiss central bank is looking at zero rates next month - if not negative given what both these currencies are doing.
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Bloomberg Hong Kong Dollar Tests Strong End of Trading Band for Second Day
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-05/hong-kong-dollar-tests-strong-end-of-trading-band-for-second-dayhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The April employment report...wasn't what everything thought it was. Not even close. What has changed is the narrative surrounding what are shaky numbers all the way around. The question everyone is asking isn't if the labor market is "good enough", it's now whether it is "bad enough." Here's what the data actually says about that.
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
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Japan was, they said, on the cusp of generational shift. The real outlier in a growing tide of reversals, BoJ was still hiking still anticipating an inflationary recovery. It has all come crashing down, globally synchronized. But not before one final plot twist.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/The Treasury Secretary spoke through the financial media to Jay Powell. He had a very simple message for the Fed Chair: pay attention to the 2s. And Ronald McDonald. It's not just the Treasury market. If only that was the case, there is also a close relationship - therefore strong warning - coming via the oil market, too. This is already why OPEC is itself shifting to recession economics.
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Bloomberg Bessent Says Two-Year Treasuries Signaling Fed Should Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-01/bessent-says-two-year-treasuries-are-signaling-fed-should-cutBloomberg Understanding the Unlikely Saudi Push for Lower Oil Prices
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-01/opec-puzzle-understanding-the-saudi-push-for-lower-oil-pricesCNN McDonald’s just had its worst quarter since Covid. It said customers are getting nervous
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/investing/mcdonalds-earnings-first-quarter-2025https://www.eurodollar.university
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A slew of economic reports from around the biggest global economies. Starting with US GDP, then Mexico, Germany and Europe then finally some critical macro data from China. There is indeed a common thread running through all of them, and it has markets spooked: CtG hit a new multi-year low barely above the 2020 lows.
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CNBC Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectations
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/adp-jobs-report-april-2025.htmlBloomberg Mexico Economy Narrowly Dodges Recession Amid US Trade Chaos
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/mexico-economy-narrowly-dodges-recession-amid-trump-trade-chaosCNBC Euro zone economy expands by better-than-expected 0.4% in the first quarter
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/euro-zone-gdp-q1-2025.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Another day, another crash; or crashes. Conference Board expectations plunged to their lowest level since 2011. Another Fed PMI plummets. Two-year Treasury yields hit their lows. All pointing to that Beveridge transition.
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Conference Board Consumer Confidence April 2025
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Apr-2025Atlanta Fed GDPNow
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowBloomberg Economists Say Trade War Makes US Recession Almost a Coin Flip
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-04-25/economists-say-trade-war-makes-us-recession-almost-a-coin-fliphttps://www.eurodollar.university
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If you were to go off of only data collected by the Federal Reserve on the economy, you'd be left with no other option than to see it at best on the doorstep of full-blown recession. Yet, officials argue inflation anyway. The real question is where all this information and evidence instead fits the "labor curve." Unfortunately, the Fed's numbers all fall on flat.
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Fed Beige Book April 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdfTexas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504#tab-reporthttps://www.eurodollar.university
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If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/While other airlines were pulling their forecasts afraid to tell the truth and preferring to hide under behind "uncertainty", Southwest's CEO bluntly stated there's a recession. And that's exactly what is starting to emerge from the Federal Reserve's very own contacts, thus why former FOMC hawks are now sounding incredibly dovish, the fundamentals of interest rates in all directions.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg Southwest CEO Says US Airline Industry Is Already in a Recession
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/southwest-ceo-says-us-airline-industry-is-already-in-a-recessionFed Beige Book April 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Weakness in key Asian bellwether has authorities there panicking into bailouts, setting its central on course to be the next major to head into "historically" low interest rates. That's not all, there's already spillover from the tariff shock in China where reports show work stoppages and factory closings. And rates there are right back near record lows.
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ChosunBiz South Korea's economy faces 0.2% GDP decline amid tariff and political turmoil
https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-policy/2025/04/24/O6H63WLPC5BHDE3HUEYUTF6UUMSouth Korea Ministerial Meeting on Economic Affairs and Ministerial Meeting on Strengthening Industrial Competitiveness (Apr.15, 2025)
https://english.moef.go.kr/pc/selectTbPressCenterDtl.do;jsessionid=ngE3YYBKCpQ6L--F1ty-I76Sl7rjfIGh94TDtjlr.node20?boardCd=N0001&seq=6146FT Chinese factories slow production and send workers home as US tariffs bite
https://www.ft.com/content/d5784258-4de3-44a1-94ae-6f763857b034https://www.eurodollar.university
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If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Walmart isn't sitting on tariffs. They instead rolling back more prices understanding what Chipotle just found out the hard way. The burrito bowl restaurant reported its first sales decline since the lockdowns, and the reason why has everyone from airlines to Walmart scrambling.
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Bloomberg Walmart Amps Up Discounts as Rivals Weigh Tariff-Driven Hikes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/walmart-amps-up-discounts-to-lure-cost-conscious-customersBloomberg Walmart Keeps Price Pressure on Suppliers After Beijing Pushback
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/walmart-keeps-price-pressure-on-suppliers-after-beijing-pushbackCNBC Chipotle is seeing a ‘slowdown’ in consumer spending as 2025 gets off to a rough start
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-q1-2025-earnings.htmlBloomberg American Air Is Latest US Carrier to Give Up on 2025 Forecast
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/american-air-aal-pulls-full-year-outlook-on-soft-travel-demand-worryBloomberg United Airlines Is So Unsure About the Economy It Offers Two Profit Scenarios
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/united-air-flags-recessionary-risk-while-keeping-profit-targetCNBC Alaska Airlines warns of slower demand as second-quarter profit outlook falls short
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/alaska-air-alk-1q-2025-earnings.htmlSPG Composite PMI flash April 2025
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/9ee36c52b8a649adada211c1842512behttps://www.eurodollar.university
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