Afleveringen
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Jason Furman, former Chairman of Council of Economic Advisers for President Obama and Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the Department of Economics at Harvard University, joins Monetary Matters to share his view of the Trump administration’s “three-legged stool” of tariffs, deregulation, and tax cuts. Recorded May 20, 2025.
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Nicolás Dujovne, CIO and founder of Tenac Asset
Management and former Treasury Minister of Argentina joins Monetary Matters to discuss the evolution of emerging market economies, EM debt investing, and why even though the US’s failure to address fiscal issues may be reminiscent of emerging markets it still falls short of full EM status even if it risks the US Dollar’s reserve currency status over the long run. Dujovne also identifies the opportunities he's watching now, explains why he thinks the dollar is moving lower, and makes the case for EM debt becoming more common in investor portfolios.
Learn more about Tenac Asset Management: https://tenacam.com
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Timestamps:
00:46 The Impact of the Dollar on EMs Like Argentina
04:59 The Impact of the Fed and US Rated on EMs Experiencing Crisis
08:15 The Causes of Argentina's Inflation
15:17 The Mechanics of Money Printing
18:38 Macro Investing in Emerging Markets
28:30 Dollar Bonds vs Local Currency Bonds
34:55 Why Do Countries Issue Dollar Bonds?
40:05 The Case for EM Debt as an Asset Class
44:21 Balance of Payments
47:51 Economics vs Trading
52:58 Rebalancing the US vs the Rest of World
55:40 The Weakening US Dollar
57:54 Tariff Impacts on US GDP
01:01:36 One Year Dollar Outlook
01:03:25 Current Positioning
01:05:26 Current Market Anomalies
01:08:52 Is the US Becoming an Emerging Market
01:13:54 LATAM Tariff Winners
01:17:16 Opinions on Milei
01:21:18 Argentina Market Views -
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Monetary Matters listeners can get a 25% discount to Prometheus Macro: https://www.prometheus-macro.com/monetarymatters
Aahan Menon, founder and CEO of Prometheus Macro, returns to Monetary Matters to share his in-depth macro process. He talks about how returns come from three factors: carry, mean reversion, and trend, and about how these three factors interact with other macro variables. Prometheus Macro is a trusted source for Jack and Monetary Matters listeners can get discounted access to Aahan’s research service by using the link below. Annual subscriptions can be purchased at 25% off the monthly subscription rate, and monthly subscribers can get a 10% discounted rate.
https://www.prometheus-macro.com/monetarymatters
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Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Anderson Institute for Finance & Economics, joins
Monetary Matters to discuss his work at the IMF on the potential risks to the
global financial system that the growth of private credit may pose. They also
discuss the affects that tariffs will have not just on the economy but the
functioning of the financial system.Learn more about the Anderson Institute: https://www.andersen.com/
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:48 A Regulator's View of Private Credit
12:58 Private Credit Replacing the Banking System
15:46 New Types of Private Credit Investors
19:34 Private Credit Liquidity
24:11 Private Credit Leverage
29:00 Geographical Regulatory Risks
30:23 Is Private Credit Investment Grade?
36:01 Private Capital's Entry to the Insurance Business
41:49 Derivatives in Private Credit and Collateralized Fund Obligations
45:44 Economic and Financial Implications of Tariffs
01:01:53 The Risk of Foreigners Selling US Assets
01:09:53 Taiwan Life Insurance Markets
01:12:37 Does Trump Want a Weaker Dollar?
01:15:37 Lack of Consumption Ex-US
01:20:29 The Anderson Institute -
David Kotok, Co-Founder & Strategic Advisor at Cumberland Advisors, joins Monetary Matters to discuss insights from his new book, “The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks.” Kotok cites data over millennia to show that pandemics typically cause natural real interest rates to decline, and productivity and inequality to rise. Kotok argues that we must prepare for the next pandemic and shares his view on the origin of the COVID virus. Part II of an interview recorded on April 4, 2025, with the first part having aired on April 7, 2025.
David Kotok’s book, “The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks”:
https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Flu-Parsing-Pandemic-Economic-ebook/dp/B0DCK1ZHJT
Paper, “Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics”: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26934/w26934.pdf
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Milton Berg, pioneer in technical market data analysis, explains why he thinks early April was a turning point in the U.S. stock market and why the stock market is likely headed higher. Recorded May 13, 2025
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To view the prospectus for the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ), please visit: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus
Learn more: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/
Ken Rogoff’s new book on the U.S. Dollar on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Dollar-Your-Problem-Turbulent/dp/0300275315
On Publisher’s site: https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300275315/our-dollar-your-problem/
Ken Rogoff, renowned economist and author of “Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead” traces the development of the U.S. Dollar’s rise to world dominance, and he connects it with the trade and capital imbalances that have recently motivated large tariff actions from the United States. Rogoff argues that he thinks the Trump tariff policy through April 30 2025 was somewhat “dumb” but that there is a chance that 10 years from now Trump will be viewed as having been right. Recorded April 30, 2025.
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George Magnus, famed economist and Associate at the China Centre Oxford, joins Monetary Matters to discuss how the global trade reset was inevitable because of unsustainable trade imbalances built up prior to the Trump administration. They also discuss the likelihood of tariffs being lowered and the relative strength of the US and China in trade negotiations.
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Jack welcomes Max Wiethe, Other People’s Money podcast host. The two discuss the May Fed meeting, in which Powell repeatedly stressed that the central bank is in a wait and see posture as it gauges how tariffs will impact inflation and growth. The two also discuss shipping volumes, tariff front running, and China’s recent monetary stimulus. Recorded May 7, 2025.
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Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe
Last Bear Standing joins Monetary Matters to explain why he thinks subpar equity returns are likely. In his words, “ The market’s current decline is not a correction, a bump in the road, or a dip to be bought. We have entered a protracted bear market.” Recorded on May 1, 2025.
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“The Matador”: https://substack.com/@thelastbearstanding/p-162490853
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Kara Murphy, CIO of Kestra Investment Management, joins Monetary Matters to share her investment outlook at a time of great uncertainty in global financial markets. Murphy argues that investors are best served taking a long-term approach, and investors with a long-time horizon ought not to spooked by policy-induced short-term gyrations in the stock market. Recorded on May 2, 2025.
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The first 4 months of 2025 have been highly volatile hurting both equity and fixed income investors alike, but how has the “smart money” faired in this environment? Jack and Max breakdown the performance of hedge funds in Q1 and April of 2025 with data from Citco Fund Services and HFRI. They also discuss the recent moves by Yale and Harvard to sell some of their private equity stakes and other indicators that might signal trouble ahead for PE as an asset class.
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Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe
Learn more about Teucrium’s Model Commodity Portfolio: https://insights.teucrium.com/commodities1subscribe
Golden Grain Cycle: https://insights.teucrium.com/golden-grain-cycle
This Fireside Chat is a sponsored conversation with the CEO of Teucrium, Sal Gilbertie. Sal’s company offers access to agricultural commodities such as corn ($CORN), soybeans ($SOYB), wheat ($WEAT), sugar, as well as broad commodity indices ($TAGS & $TILL) and 2x levered Ripple ($XXRP).
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Marc Rubinstein, former hedge fund manager and author of Net
Interest joins Monetary Matters to discuss how the financial sector is
preparing itself for the risks of a recession and how they are managing tariff
uncertainty during this earnings season. Rubinstein touches on the different subsectors of the financial sector, like banks, non-banks, asset managers and
payments companies, as well as how financials in different geographies may
benefit from the reshuffling of global trade.
Read Marc’s Net Interest Substack on The Great Payments Processor Reshuffle of 2025: https://www.netinterest.co/p/partner-swap
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Matt Jozoff, co-CEO, Portfolio Manager, and Head of Macro Research at Trevally Capital joins Other People’s Money, to discuss how trends like the growth in the Ginnie Mae market, low credit borrowers and non-bank originators, and other factors are affecting mortgage prepayments and creating opportunities in the mortgage market for firms like Trevally Capital. He also discusses how Trevally Capital is looking to extract alpha from these opportunities and build a world-class institutional asset manager with the backing of partners like The Raptor Group and Seaport Global Securities.
Learn more about Trevally Capital: https://www.trevallycapital.com/
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Timestamps
00:00 Intro
01:33 Post-Tariff Fixed Income Market Update
06:49 Recent Mortgage Market Developments
10:45 Ginnie Mae Mortgages
12:04 Not Calling For Another Mortgage Crisis
13:42 Nobody Can Afford Refinancing
17:24 Trump Admin and Fannie & Freddie
21:08 Factors Affecting Mortgage Prepayments
28:27 Day one Institutional Quality
34:53 Prepayments Part II
39:04 Importance of Seed Investors like Raptor & Seaport Global
42:07 Hedge Fund Seed Investing is Venture Capital
43:55 Peers & Competitors in the Mortgage Market
49:36 Physics & Cincinnati Connection -
Libby Cantrill, Managing Director and Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, joins Monetary Matters to explain her outlook on U.S. trade and tax policy. Cantrill argues that while Trump administration has flexibility in tariff negotiations and that the China tariffs are likely headed much lower (a prediction that already looks like it will come true), tariffs are not going away anytime soon and she views the 10% tariffs on the world as a floor, with reciprocal tariffs on top of that floor especially on China being elevated. Cantrill also shares her views on sectoral tariffs, the rumored “Mar-a-Lago Accord” (she doesn’t think it has traction), and tax cuts. Recorded the afternoon of April 22, 2025.
Follow Libby Cantrill on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/libby-cantrill-cfa-17162513b/
Most recent piece, “Overall U.S. Tariff Level Still High Despite Exemptions”:
https://www.pimco.com/us/en/insights/overall-us-tariff-level-still-high-despite-exemptions
Cantrill’s profile on PIMCO: https://www.pimco.com/us/en/experts/libby-cantrill
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To view the prospectus for the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ), please visit: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus
Learn more: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/
What happens to Private Credit in a slowdown? Are fears of tariffs overblown? Danny Moses of “The Big Short” renown joins Monetary Matters to share his views on these important issues and more. Recorded April 17 2025.
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Danny Moses’ podcast, On The Tape: https://open.spotify.com/show/1Bawg52xr2HpGeN36npyua
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Freya Beamish, Chief Economist at TS Lombard, joins Jack to argue why American tariff policy is accelerating a transition to a multi-polar international monetary order. She estimates that U.S. and China will reach a deal lowering tariffs to ~30% levels and shares her views on bonds and gold. Recorded on April 14, 2025.
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Sign up for MacroCapture by MI2 Partners today with coupon codes MM10 (for annual) and MM10Q (for quarterly) to save 10% at: https://mi2partners.com/macrocapture-landing-page/
Julian Brigden Co-Founder of MI2 Partners joins Monetary Matters to discuss why the dramatic shift in US trade policy is making non-US investors dump US assets and bring home the profits from a historic bull run in US assets. He also explains why this repatriation of profits coupled with an eventual slowdown in the flow of dollars driven by tariff policy itself spells a weaker dollar and trouble for US financial markets, even if it does result in American reindustrialization. Recorded April 15, 2025.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:53 The Whole World is Overweight the US
09:55 Tariffs Slow the Dollar Flow
17:54 Selling US Assets is Prudent for Foreign Investors
26:42 Who Wins in the US Domestic Economy?
29:56 MacroCapture
34:58 Tariffs Have Been a Carpet-bomb Approach
44:06 Tariffs = Stagflation
49:43 Tariff Effects on China and Europe
54:04 Are Risks Greater in the US?
01:00:13 Will Foreign Markets Outperform on US Weakness or Their Strength?
01:04:32 Bond Market Outlook
01:10:24 Gold Outlook
01:12:50 Reading the Tape to Detect Market Participants
01:18:16 Where is the Trump Put?
01:22:21 America’s Liz Truss Moment
01:25:59 Credit Trades and HYG -
Måns Levin, CEO and co-founder of Ridge Capital, joins Other People’s Money, to discuss why they believe the Nordic high yield credit market provides unique opportunities for double-digit returns and insolation from tariff and trade war risks. Levin discusses the exceptional start Ridge Capital has had, both in terms of performance and asset raising, the specific features and composition of the Nordic high yield market that they find most attractive, and the flexibility in strategies required to take full advantage of the opportunities they see.
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#credit #creditmarket #fixedincome #bonds #nordic #sweden #norway #denmark #finland #stocks #economics #economy #stockmarket #investing #hedgefunds #trading #wallstreet #ridgecapital #finance - Laat meer zien
