Are You Taking Enough Aspirational Risk?

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Optimization, AI and Opting Out with Coco Krumme
18 dec· Money For the Rest of Us
In our final episode of the year, I converse with author and data scientist Coco Krumme about the benefits and costs of optimization in finance, industry, and our daily lives. We explore AI and its overlap with optimization. We also consider the pros and cons of life optimization and finally discuss the extreme challenge of opting out.
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Show Notes
Optimal Illusions: The False Promise of Optimization by Coco Krumme—Penguin Random House
cocofolio.com
Coco Krumme—LinkedIn
Related Episode
480: Beyond Faster (T+1) Trade Settlement: The Hidden Costs of Optimization
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Indexing Bubble and Asset Class Returns Still Revert to the Mean
11 dec· Money For the Rest of Us
How asset class returns move in cycles with periods of above-average returns followed by periods of lower returns. How has the rise of passive indexing led to higher stock valuations, and what does that mean for markets?
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Show Notes
The Equity Risk Premium: Nine Myths (JPM Series) by Rob Arnott—Research Affiliates
The Greatest Scourge in Factorland: Revaluation Alpha = Fake Alpha (JPM Series) by Rob Arnott—Research Affiliates
PASSIVE INVESTING AND THE RISE OF MEGA-FIRMS by Hao Jiang, Dimitri Vayanos, and Lu Zheng—NBER
Limits to Diversification: Passive Investing and Market Risk by Lily H. Fang, et al.—SSRN
Related Episodes
503: U.S. Stocks Have Never Been This Overhyped or Expensive
500: The S&P 500 Index and the Decade Ahead
468: Lessons from Japan’s 34 Years of Stock Market Underperformance
390: Are BlackRock and Vanguard Too Big and Powerful?
234: Index But Don’t Herd
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U.S. Stocks Have Never Been This Overhyped or Expensive
4 dec· Money For the Rest of Us
What are the tangible and intangible factors that have contributed to long-term U.S. stock market outperformance compared to the rest of the world? Despite these advantages, why might we still want to continue to be globally diversified?
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Show Notes
American productivity still leads the world—The Economist
The Outlook for Long-Term Economic Growth by Charles I. Jones—Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
How Much Will Global Warming Cool Global Growth? by Ishan B. Nath, Valerie A. Ramey, and Peter J. Klenow—UC San Diego
Technology and demand drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies by Alistair Dieppe, Neville Francis, and Gene Kindberg-Hanlon—European Central Bank
Capitalism is in worse shape in Europe by Ruchir Sharma—The Financial Times
The Mother of All Bubbles by Ruchir Sharma—The Financial Times
The Curious Incident of the Elevated Profit Margins by James Montier—GMO
Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product - FRED
Euro area government deficit at 3.6% and EU at 3.5% of GDP—eurostat
End of an era: The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns by Michael Smolyansky—Federal Reserve Board
Should investors just give up on stocks outside America?—The Economist
Related Episodes
500: The S&P 500 Index and the Decade Ahead
499: What Makes an Economy Prosperous? Spotlight on Cuba and Argentina
343: Why the Productivity Slowdown Could Lead to Lower Living Standards
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Should You Invest in Nuclear Energy?
20 nov· Money For the Rest of Us
Why has there been renewed interest in nuclear power generation in the last couple of years, and how can we invest in it?
Topics covered include:
Why did Microsoft sign an agreement to reopen a nuclear reactor at the infamous Three Mile Island nuclear facilityHow much does nuclear energy contribute to global power generationWhy is demand for electricity acceleratingWhat are the advantages and challenges with nuclear energyWhat investment vehicles individuals can use to invest in nuclear energy
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Show Notes
Microsoft in deal for Three Mile Island nuclear power to meet AI demand by Myles McCormick and Jamie Smyth—The Financial Times
Nuclear Power Was Once Shunned at Climate Talks. Now, It’s a Rising Star. by Brad Plumer—The New York Times
Inside Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner—YouTube
Q&A - Germany’s nuclear exit: One year after—Clean Energy Wire
Fukushima Daiichi Accident—World Nuclear Association
Chernobyl Accident 1986—World Nuclear Association
Nuclear Energy in a Low-Carbon Energy Future—NEI
Electricity Mid-Year Update - July 2024—IEA
What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source?—U.S. Energy Information Administration
How old are U.S. nuclear power plants, and when was the newest one built?—U.S. Energy Information Administration
Global price of Uranium—FRED
Investments Mentioned
Pelican Energy Partners
Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Performance (SRUUF)
GlobalX Uranium ETF (URA)
VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR)
Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)
Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ)
Related Episodes
469: Which Will Perform Better: Berkshire Hathaway or Utility Stocks?
384: Has a Commodities Bull Market Supercycle Started? If So, How Do You Invest in It?
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Strategies and Systems Want Your Money
13 nov· Money For the Rest of Us
We explore what strategy and systems are and how we craft and change them. We consider how investment strategies and financial systems have changed over the decades and why this matters to your financial decisions.
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Show Notes
Ruminating on Asset Allocation by Howard Marks—Oaktree Capital
Michael E. Porter—Harvard Business School
This Is Strategy by Seth Godin—Simon & Schuster
Victor Meets the Boglehead by Victor Haghani & James White—VettaFi Advisor Perspectives
Static vs Dynamic Asset Allocation; Victor Meets the Boglehead—Bogleheads.org
Tim Cook on Why Apple’s Huge Bets Will Pay Off By Ben Cohen—The Wall Street Journal
Related Episodes
491: The Five Layers of Investing
451: How Much Should You Invest in Stocks? The Art of Position Sizing in a Volatile Market
420: Does a 60/40 Balanced Portfolio Still Work?
397: How To Invest Based on Cycles
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Episode 500: The S&P 500 Index and the Decade Ahead
6 nov· Money For the Rest of Us
In the 500th episode of Money for the Rest of Us, we focus on the S&P 500 Index. How has the index changed, and why have U.S. stocks performed so well? Will U.S. stocks only return 3% in the next decade, as Goldman Sachs predicts.
We also discuss major themes covered on Money for the Rest of Us over 500 episodes and what are our plans for the future. Thanks for being a part of Money for the Rest of Us over the past decade.
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Show Notes
Select Sector Indices Consultation on Constituent Weightings Calculations – Results—S&P Global
What Does an Election Year Mean for the Market?—S&P Global
The Great Rotation: A potential unwinding of hyper-concentration in the US may favor balanced global portfolios by Brian Chingono—Verdad
The Great Rotation (Part 2): The United States’ outsize weighting in commercial indices appears unjustified by its share of global GDP by Brian Chingono—Verdad
Decade of Big S&P 500 Gains Is Over, Goldman Strategists Say by Sagarika Jaisinghani—Bloomberg
David Stein LinkedIn Post—LinkedIn
Vanguard warns investors over company stake limits by Steve Johnson, Will Schmitt, and Brooke Masters—The Financial Times
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What Makes an Economy Prosperous? Spotlight on Cuba and Argentina
30 okt· Money For the Rest of Us
We explore eight things that contribute to a healthy, growing economy and where Cuba and Argentina have fallen short.
Topics covered include:
Why Cuba continues to have rolling energy blackoutsWhy economic sanctions frequently don't workHow Argentina's President Millei is taking a "chainsaw" to the nation's economyWhy emerging markets will need to change their export-oriented growth trajectoryWhat are the risks to the long-term health of the U.S. economy
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Show Notes
Cuba is out of supplies and out of ideas—The Economist
Cuba plunged into crisis by long power blackouts by Ed Augustin—The Financial Times
Power Outage Plunges All of Cuba Into Darkness by Frances Robles—The New York Times
Why Economic Sanctions Backfire: The Role of Emigration in the Venezuelan Case by Nicolás Idrobo—SSRN
The Impact of the Cuban Adjustment Act on Cuban Immigrants in the US by Tamarys Bahamonde—SSRN
How is Javier Milei performing after nearly 11 months in office? by Michael Stott and Ciara Nugent—The Financial Times
The weakest links in the global economy are on the mend by Ruchir Sharma—The Financial Times
Argentina’s poverty rate soars above 50% under Javier Milei by Ciara Nugent—The Financial Times
Argentina Inflation Slows to 2021 Levels in Win For Milei by Manuela Tobias—Bloomberg
Argentina’s economy minister strikes defiant note on default risk by Ciara Nugent and Michael Stott—The Financial Times
Argentine Debt Rises Out of Distress Territory on Milei Reforms by Kevin Simauchi—Bloomberg
Argentina Scrapped Its Rent Controls. Now the Market Is Thriving. by Ryan Dubé—The Wall Street Journal
Developing Countries Can’t Count on Manufacturing to Supercharge Growth by Kai Schultz and Shruti Srivastava—Bloomberg
Related Episodes
411: Is Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing Still Worth It? – With Asha Mehta
409: What Is the IMF and Why Is It Controversial?
233: Is An Emerging Markets Crisis Imminent?
93: Capitalism, Complexity and Cuba
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Ten Things I've Learned About Investing in the Past Decade
23 okt· Money For the Rest of Us
In episode 498, David shares how his investing has changed over the past ten years and lessons you can apply to your portfolio.
Document Your JourneyKeep ExperimentingBe Willing to Adopt New Asset ClassesBe Very PatientTrade Less, Focus On Long-term DriversMonetary DiversificationDon't Focus on Relative PerformanceIgnore the NoiseTake Your TimeThere Is No Right Way to Invest
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Show Notes
The Investor Podcast 668: What I Learned About Investing w/ Stig Brodersen
Related Episodes
454: How To Invest – Ten Rules of Thumb for Individual Investors
423: A “Safe” 6% Yield: The Case for Investment Grade CLOs
372: When Should You Sell An Investment?
336: Own What Is Real
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How to Fix the Retirement Savings Crisis
16 okt· Money For the Rest of Us
Why 401k and other defined contribution schemes are flawed, leading to a generation of workers unprepared for retirement. What are the solutions to fix the mess.
Topics
Why 401k and other defined contributions haven't worked, despite their popularityWhy defined benefit pension plans declinedWhy 401k plans are treated like emergency fundsHow to combine the best of 401k and defined benefit pension plans
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Show Notes
The Shift that Redefined Retirement Security by Shashwat Vidhu Sher—SSRN
Was the 401(k) a Mistake? by Michael Steinberger—The New York Times Magazine
Who Has Retirement Accounts? New Data Reveal Inequality in Retirement Account Ownership by Maria G. Hoffman, Mark A. Klee and Briana Sullivan—United States Census Bureau
U.S. Retirement Assets: Data in Brief—Congressional Research Service
Where do my CPP contributions go?—CPP Investments
Related Episodes
460: Should You Be Invested 100% in Stocks Before and During Retirement? A Recent Study Says Yes.
441: What If Social Security Had Been Privatized?
279: Why All Retirees Should Consider an Income Annuity
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Are You Taking Enough Aspirational Risk?
9 okt· Money For the Rest of Us
Why we need distinct risk buckets: balancing our natural loss aversion with the allure of opportunities that offer the potential for massive upside.
Topics covered include:
What is modern portfolio theory, and what are some of its flawsWhy so many people have gotten wealthy by being undiversifiedHow to balance personal risk, market risk, and aspirational riskHow prospect theory explains our attraction to positively skewed opportunitiesWhy most people won't get wealthy unless they take some aspirational risk
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Show Notes
Portfolio Selection by Harry Markowitz—The Journal of Finance, Vol. 7, No. 1. (Mar., 1952), pp. 77-91
Safety First and the Holding of Assets by A. D. Roy—Econometrica, Vol. 20, No. 3 (Jul., 1952), pp. 431-449
The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence by Benoit Mandelbrot and Richard L. Hudson—Hachette Book Group
Beyond Markowitz: A Comprehensive Wealth Allocation Framework for Individual Investors by Ashvin B. Chhabra—The Journal of Wealth Managment, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp 8-34, Spring 2005
The Wealth of Households: 2021: Current Population Reports by Briana Sullivan, Donald Hays, and Neil Bennett—Census.gov
Average, Median, Top 1%, and all United States Net Worth Percentiles—DQYDJ
PROSPECT THEORY AND STOCK MARKET ANOMALIES by Nicholas C. Barberis, Lawrence J. Jin, and Baolian Wang—NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
Related Episodes
82: Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and Creativity
460: Should You Be Invested 100% in Stocks Before and During Retirement? A Recent Study Says Yes.
421: Beware of Survivorship Bias When Investing
Investing Rule One: Avoid Ruin
229: Stop Maximizing Your Returns Using Modern Portfolio Theory
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Plus episode excerpts: ETF Size, the Long-term Impact of QE, and Stock Market Inelasticity
2 okt· Money For the Rest of Us
This week on the podcast, we share excerpts from Plus episode 484 on ETF size and the impact of QE, as well as Plus episode 493 on stock market inelasticity.
You can learn more about Money for the Rest of Us Plus here.
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The Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates. What Should We Do Now?
25 sep· Money For the Rest of Us
What does the Federal Reserve's policy rate cut mean for our portfolios? Will interest rates keep falling? What changes should we make?
Topics include:
What determines interest rates, and where are those drivers currentlyWhat is the best estimate of bond returnsHow duration works and why it changesWhat are some current fixed income investment options
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Show Notes
Asset Camp
FedWatch—CME Group
Summary of Economic Projections—US Federal Reserve
Investors may be getting the Federal Reserve wrong, again—The Economist
Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond—Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Yield to Maturity Is Always Received as Promised by Richard J. Cebula
and Bill Z. Yang—Journal of Economics and Finance
The Truth about Yield by Jason Bove and Mark Willauer—J.P. Morgan
Related Episodes
464: More Ways to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall
463: How to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall
455: Easier Investing, Richer Life: TIPS Ladders to Annuities
418: Bond Investing Masterclass
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When to Sell Equity or Borrow: A Guide for Homeowners, Students, and Artists
18 sep· Money For the Rest of Us
How do home equity investments, income share agreements, and music royalties work, and how can you participate?
Topics covered include:
How a home equity investment differs from a home mortgageWhat is the cost of home equity investmentsHow funding education through income share agreements has changedWhy artists sell royalties to their workHow individuals can invest in music royalties
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Show Notes
Unlock Product Guide—Unlock
Point and Atalaya Capital Management Close Oversubscribed $141 Million Home Equity Investment Rated Securitization—Global Newswire
What Colleges Should Know About Income Share Agreements and Private Education Loan Requirements by Rich Williams—Homeroom
CFPB settles claims against operator of training program arising out of income share agreements by John L. Culhane, Jr. & Thomas Burke—Consumer Finance Monitor
Bond market: Bowie Bonds and the Evolution of the Bond Market—Faster Capital
Related Episodes
493: The Housing Affordability Crisis: What Caused It and How to Fix It
349: Forward and Reverse Mortgages: When To Take Them Out and When to Pay Them Off
307: Income Share Agreements—Good for Students or Investors?
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The Housing Affordability Crisis: What Caused It and How to Fix It
11 sep· Money For the Rest of Us
What caused the 40% price increase in houses and rents, and what are governments doing to try to fix the problem.
Topics covered include:
Why 50% of the global population is frustrated with the lack of affordable housingHow the housing collapse as part of the Great Financial Crisis contributed to today's affordability crisisHow central bank QE programs have magnified the housing crisisHow restrictive zoning and short-term rentals contribute to the housing crisisWhat governments are doing to encourage more housing supplyWhat individuals can do until housing becomes more affordable
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Show Notes
Concern over housing costs hits record high across rich nations by Valentina Romei and Sam Fleming—The Financial Times
Home Price to Median Household Income Ratio (US)—Longtermtrends
Home Ownership Affordability Monitor—Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
AMERICA'S RENTAL HOUSING 2024—Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University
America retains “rent burdened” status—Moody's
U.S. 2024 and 2025 Mid-Year Outlook Report—AirDNA
ARIZONA’S NEW HOUSING LAWS EXPLAINED—Tempe YIMBY
What Kalamazoo (Yes, Kalamazoo) Reveals About the Nation’s Housing Crisis by Conor Dougherty—The New York Times
How Rent Controls Are Deepening the Dutch Housing Crisis by Cagan Koc and Sarah Jacob—Bloomberg
Related Episodes
389: Is Airbnb Intensifying the Housing Crisis?
357: Is a Housing Crash Coming?
238: The U.S. Is More Socialist Than Denmark Regarding Home Mortgages
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The Power of Optionality: Small Bets, Big Payoffs
4 sep· Money For the Rest of Us
In this episode, we explore the concept of optionality—how small, strategic decisions can lead to outsized rewards with limited downside risk. From ancient philosophy to modern financial strategies, discover how recognizing and seizing options can unlock opportunities in both life and investing.
Topics covered include:
How call and put options workThe difference between American and European style options and why it mattersWhy options are positively skewedExamples of using optionality in business and lifeWhy it can be challenging to commit when an option is "in the money"
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Show Notes
Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb—Penguin Random House
The Wisdom Of Finance: Discovering Humanity in the World of Risk and Return by Mihir Desai—Harper Academic
Refuse to Choose!: Use All of Your Interests, Passions, and Hobbies to Create the Life and Career of Your Dreams—Penguin Random House
An Economist Walks into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk by Allison Schrager—Penguin Random House
Related Episodes
482: Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and Creativity
268: How To Better Manage Risk
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The Five Layers of Investing - Which Layers Is Your Portfolio Allocated?
28 aug· Money For the Rest of Us
In Episode 491, we explore the five layers of investing, including which assets fit into each layer, and give examples of advertisements targeting each layer.
The five layers are:
1. Short-term trading2. Longer-term speculations3. Individual securities4. Diversified portfolios focused on underlying drivers and factors5. Maximum diversification with few changes and just a few holdings
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Show Notes
Asset Camp
The Role of Emotions in Financial Decisions by David Tuckett—ResearchGate
Morningstar Active Passive Barometer
Related Episodes
486: How Retail Traders Lose Big While Enriching Wall Street
431: The Long-term Bullish Case for Gold
306: Three Approaches to Asset Allocation
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Should You Invest in Private Equity?
21 aug· Money For the Rest of Us
How do buyouts, venture capital, and growth equity work? Has private equity outperformed the stock market, and can individual investors pursue these investment strategies?
Topics covered include:
How are private equity funds structured, and what are the feesHow is private equity performance measured, and how has it performedWhy does private equity have such a large dispersion of returns compared to the public stock marketWhat is private equity dry powder, and why is there much of itWhat are some ways individuals can invest in private equity and why should they use caution in doing so
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Show Notes
Understanding Private Fund Performance by Kaitlin Hendrix and Mamdouh Medhat—SSRN
What Drives Private-Equity Performance Persistence? New Deal-Level Evidence by Axel Buchner and Susanne Espenlaub and Abdul Mohamed—SSRN
Unlocking the Power of Relationships: Limited Partner Networks and Performance in Private Equity by José Carlos Franco de Abreu Neto and Saito Richard—SSRN
Private equity dry powder growth accelerated in H1 2024 by Dylan Thomas and Annie Sabater—S&P Global
Private Equity Gets Creative to Buy Time for More Gains. Clients Say Pay Me Now by Allison McNeely and Dawn Lim—Bloomberg
Related Episodes
458: Dissecting Stock Returns: Financial Engineering or Genuine Growth?
440: Beware of Platform Risk
350: How to Invest in Startups on Equity Crowdfunding Platforms?
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Making Better Investment and Life Decisions - Episode 203 Remastered
14 aug· Money For the Rest of Us
This week, we release one of David's favorite episodes from six years ago, Episode 203: Is Investing More Like Poker or Chess.
Topics covered include:
What is the difference between chess and poker.Why we need to separate the decision process from the outcome.How to improve the quality of our investment decisions.What are are wu-wei and qi and what role do they play in better decision making.
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Show Notes
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts by Annie Duke
Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
The Tao of Pooh by Benjamin Hoff
Trying Not to Try: Ancient China, Modern Science, and the Power of Spontaneity by Edward Slingerland
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Why the Market Has Sold Off and What Should You Do
7 aug· Money For the Rest of Us
In episode 489, we examine three factors that contributed to this week's big stock market declines, analyze whether a recession is imminent, and review David's recent portfolio changes.
Topics covered include:
The benefits of looking at market and economic trends monthlyHow bad was the recent U.S. employment report and what is the Sahm RuleWhat are leading economic indicators saying about recession riskWhy the Federal Reserve will be lowering its policy rate, leading to lower cash yieldsWhy the Japanese yen strengthened, leading to market turmoilWhy investors are rotating from large cap growth to small cap value stocksHow David locked in higher yields
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Show Notes
Transcript of Chair Powell’s FOMC Press Conference July 31, 2024—The Federal Reserve
Goolsbee Says Fed Won’t Overreact to One Month’s Data by Catarina Saraiva and Ananya Chag—Bloomberg
Congressional Budget Office Updates Baseline: Deficit Spending is 27 Percent Higher Than Previously Estimated—U.S. House Budget Committee
Investments Mentioned
Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG)
Vanguard Small Cap Value (VBR)
iShares International Developed Small Cap Value Factor ETF (ISVL)
Invesco BulletShares 2031 Corporate Bond ETF (BSCV)
iShares Large Cap Max Buffer ETF (MAXJ)
BlackRock AAA CLO ETF (CLOA)
Related Episodes
485: Should You Invest in Defined Outcome (Buffer) ETFs?
476: Is Small Cap Dead? Why You Shouldn’t Abandon Small Company Stocks
472: Is the Economy as Bad as People Think?
464: More Ways to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall
463: How to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall
423: A “Safe” 6% Yield: The Case for Investment Grade CLOs
302: Investing is Not Knowing
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Should You Invest in an Ethereum ETF?
31 jul· Money For the Rest of Us
What is the investment case for Ethereum, and what are the risks? A straightforward review of what ether and Ethereum are, how they work, and what it will take for the Ethereum blockchain to be successful.
Topics covered include:
Who launched Ethereum ETFs and what are the feesHow Ethereum differs from BitcoinExamples of applications built on the Ethereum blockchain including NFTs, stablecoins, DAOs, and tokenized real-world assetsHow Ethereum has evolved to lower fees, reduce supply, cut its energy use, and increase capacityWhat is Ethereum staking and how much can investors earn doing soWhat will cause ether to go up in price
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Show Notes
Spot Ethereum ETFs begin trading today: Here's what you need to know by Jason Shubnell—The Block
The spot Ethereum ETFs' first week by the numbers by James Hunt—The Block
The Idols NFT—theidols.io
Read Write Own by Chris Dixon—readwriteown.com
Ethereum is the Only Institution-Friendly Smart Contract Chain by Qiao Wang—Medium
EthereumETH Staking—Coinbase
5 Ways to Stake Your Crypto Assets—Staking Rewards
Ethereum's Dencun Upgrade: Unleashing Scalability and Efficiency—bitpay
Solana vs. Ethereum: Which Is Better in 2024? —KuCoin
Related Episodes
462: Now Should You Buy a Bitcoin ETF?
373: Are Stablecoins Safe? Should You Own Them?
368: How to Invest in Web3, DAOs, and the Metaverse
339: How To Make Money with BlockFi, Dai, and the Evolving DeFi Ecosystem
335: Are Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) Good Investments?
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