Afleveringen
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Sina, COO and co-founder of 21st Capital, discusses the application of power law in understanding Bitcoin's growth. He explains how his empirical research led to the development of a power law model that accurately describes Bitcoin's historical price behavior. The discussion delves into the mechanisms behind this model, the reliability of its predictions, and the impact of market maturity on Bitcoin's growth trajectory.
Sina also introduces quantile models to provide a probabilistic view of future price predictions, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics and investor behavior. They also discuss the evolving dynamics of Bitcoin mining, the impact of fiat inflation on Bitcoin valuation, and the significance of the power law in Bitcoin's growth. They deep dive into MicroStrategy's unique position in the Bitcoin market, analyzing its premium and market dynamics, and explore the future interplay between MicroStrategy and Bitcoin.
Takeaways
🔸Power law models Bitcoin's growth behavior effectively.
🔸Adoption is a key driver of Bitcoin's value.
🔸Reliability of models can be assessed through R-squared values.
🔸Market maturity leads to reduced volatility in Bitcoin.
🔸Quantile models provide a probabilistic view of price predictions.
🔸Historical patterns can inform future expectations.
🔸Latecomers to the market have less impact on price.
🔸Bitcoin's growth is constrained by physical and psychological limits.
🔸ETF purchases are becoming more influential than mining.
🔸Understanding probabilities is crucial for realistic expectations. People are overemphasizing the mining factor in Bitcoin's price.
🔸Long-term holders play a significant role in Bitcoin's market dynamics.
🔸Fiat inflation can impact Bitcoin's nominal price but not its fundamental value.
🔸The power law provides a framework for understanding Bitcoin's growth.
🔸MicroStrategy's premium reflects its unique position in the market.
🔸Investors see MicroStrategy as a way to gain exposure to Bitcoin indirectly.
🔸MicroStrategy's financial engineering allows it to accumulate more Bitcoin over time.
🔸The premium on MicroStrategy shares may fluctuate with market conditions.
🔸Increased institutional interest in Bitcoin could benefit MicroStrategy.
🔸Self-custody remains a critical aspect of Bitcoin investment.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:54) - What is the Power Law? How does it apply to Bitcoin?
(06:44) - Will Power Law patterns hold into the future?
(10:09) - Evaluating the reliability of Power Law
(15:40) - Does Power Law imply a diminishing return for Bitcoin?
(21:08) - Sponsors
(23:40) - Quantile models and Future price predictions
(31:38) - The evolving dynamics of Bitcoin mining and sell-offs
(34:24) - How does fiat inflation influence the Power Law model?
(40:59) -Sponsors
(43:01) - What’s driving $MSTR to trade at a premium?
(48:32) - The future of MicroStrategy and Bitcoin's interplay
(56:48) - Impact of corporations adopting the Bitcoin Strategy
Links:
https://21stcapital.com/
https://x.com/Sina_21st
https://www.youtube.com/@21stCapital
https://x.com/Sina_21st/status/1858706684904104149
Sponsors:
Bold Bitcoin
CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
mempool.space/accelerator
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
Subscribe to the podcast
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Tom Nelson discusses the misconceptions surrounding climate change, particularly the belief that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary driver of climate change. He argues that this notion is a significant part of a larger narrative that has been perpetuated for decades, leading to alarmism and extreme policies.
The discussion also touches on the evolution of climate catastrophism, the implications of the net zero agenda, and the role of media and funding in shaping public perception. Nelson emphasizes the need for a more nuanced understanding of climate science and the importance of questioning prevailing narratives.
Tom & Stephan also discuss the evolution of climate skepticism, the impact of urban heat islands on temperature records, and the misconceptions surrounding extreme weather events and climate change. Emphasis is also laid on the importance of debates in shaping public perception and critiques government subsidies for renewable energy sources. The discussion touches on the potential of Bitcoin as a means of financial freedom in the context of climate change narratives.
Takeaways
🔸Carbon dioxide is just one of many factors affecting climate.
🔸Groupthink and power control drive climate alarmism.
🔸The narrative around climate change has evolved over decades.
🔸Net zero policies often lead to absurd consequences.
🔸Many climate policies are based on flawed assumptions.
🔸Public perception is influenced by media narratives.
🔸Funding for climate research often favors alarmist views.
🔸The complexity of climate science is often oversimplified.
🔸Bitcoin mining is unfairly criticized in climate discussions.
🔸There is potential for changing minds within the climate debate. Many well-known climate skeptics once believed in climate change.
🔸Starting with one lie can open up discussions about climate change.
🔸Legacy media's influence is diminishing as alternative media rises.
🔸The urban heat island effect significantly skews temperature records.
🔸Extreme weather events have always existed and are not solely due to climate change.
🔸Debates on climate change are often avoided by alarmists.
🔸Government subsidies for renewable energy are often misallocated.
🔸Fossil fuels are underfunded compared to renewable energy sources.
🔸Public perception of climate change is shifting towards skepticism.
🔸Bitcoin represents a potential shift in financial autonomy against climate narratives.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(02:12) - What drives Climate Catastrophism?
(07:54) - What are the implications of the ‘Net Zero’ agenda?
(12:16) - The role & consequences of media reporting on Climate Crisis
(17:35) - Sponsors
(23:24) - The Science Funding Dilemma
(26:41) - Does Bitcoin mining cause bad weather conditions?
(30:51) - The shift in climate skepticism
(33:35) - Temperate Records
(35:32) - Sponsors
(40:40) - How serious are the extreme weather events?
(44:15) - Ongoing debates and public perception of climate change narratives
(50:02) - Government subsidies for different forms of energy sources
(55:33) - Tom’s perspective on Bitcoin
Links:
https://climatethemovie.net/
https://x.com/TomANelson
https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1
Sponsors:
Bold Bitcoin
CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
mempool.space/accelerator
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
Subscribe to the podcast
Subscribe to Substack
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Joe Quirk, president of the Seasteading Institute, discusses the innovative concept of seasteading, which proposes creating floating societies on the ocean as a solution to the limitations of land-based governance. Quirk shares his personal journey into the world of seasteading, drawing parallels between cruise ships, Burning Man, and the potential for self-governing communities at sea. He explores the practicalities of building seasteads, the challenges faced, and the legal frameworks necessary for their success. The conversation also touches on sustainability, food production, and the economic viability of living on the ocean. He emphasizes the ecological benefits of building structures at sea, the innovative business models that can emerge, and the need for political autonomy. He also highlights the importance of material science and competition in developing sustainable structures that can withstand ocean conditions.
Takeaways
Seasteading offers a solution to the governance monopoly problem.
Cruise ships exemplify successful self-governing societies.
Variation and selection in governance can lead to progress.
Experiences at Burning Man illustrate innovative social structures.
Seasteads can be built using various materials and technologies.
Legal frameworks are essential for the establishment of seasteads.
Safety and sustainability are key considerations for ocean living.
Food production on seasteads can include seaweed and seafood farming.
Economic viability is crucial for the future of seasteading.
Seasteading represents a new frontier for human innovation and governance. The ocean can support diverse life when solid structures are introduced.
Seasteads require political autonomy to be truly effective.
The future may see a proliferation of small, innovative nations at sea.
Cruise ships serve as a model for future floating cities.
Innovative business models can thrive in marine environments.
Sustainable farming and biotech research can be more effective at sea.
Material science is crucial for building durable seasteads.
The ocean's diversity offers opportunities for new governance models.
Seasteading can provide alternatives to traditional land governance.
Support for seasteading initiatives is essential for their success.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:04) - What is Seasteading?
(04:08) - How did Joe's experience at Burning Man inspire him to pursue Seasteading?
(09:36) - The evolution of Governance and Social structures
(14:53) - Challenges & innovations in Seasteading
(18:16) - What are the legal & regulatory aspects of Seasteading?
(22:46) - How safe is it to live on the ocean?
(25:05) - Sponsors
(27:22) - How does one produce or source food on Seasteads?
(31:22) - How much does a Seastead cost?
(34:00) - Aquatic life and its role in Seasteads
(35:35) - Future of Seasteading
(40:57) - Innovative business models viable at Sea
(45:41) - Sponsors(51:08) - Building sustainable structures at Sea
(57:28) - What’s next for Seasteading?
Links:
https://x.com/joequirkexults
https://x.com/seasteading
https://www.seasteading.org/
https://oceanbuilders.com/
Sponsors:
Bold Bitcoin
CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
mempool.space/accelerator
Nomadcapitalist.com/apply
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
Subscribe to the podcast
Subscribe to Substack
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Steve and Lyn delve into the complexities of Bitcoin consensus, discussing the motivations behind their project analyzing consensus risks in protocol upgrades. They explore the technical and economic aspects of Bitcoin, the evolution of its consensus mechanisms, and the various stakeholder groups involved in decision-making processes.
The discussion also highlights the importance of awareness among Bitcoin users regarding potential changes and the historical context of contentious changes in Bitcoin's past.
They explore the challenges of gaining adoption for alternative clients, the implications of activation methods for protocol changes, and the overall robustness of the Bitcoin network. The discussion also emphasizes the need for awareness and understanding of these dynamics to foster better decision-making within the Bitcoin community.
Takeaways
Understanding Bitcoin consensus is crucial for all stakeholders.
Bitcoin's growth changes the dynamics of consensus.
Different philosophies exist regarding Bitcoin's evolution.
Investors need to be aware of consensus changes.
Knowledge empowers Bitcoin users to make informed decisions.
Stakeholder groups have varying powers and incentives.
The Bitcoin community is evolving and requires ongoing education.
Historical changes in Bitcoin provide lessons for the future.
Soft forks present different challenges compared to hard forks.
The project aims to be a living document for ongoing contributions. The Bitcoin network must have the option for alternative clients to ensure a healthy ecosystem.
Gaining adoption for alternative clients is challenging and can lead to a fragile network.
Investors hold significant power in determining the future of Bitcoin, especially during contentious changes.
Self-custody investors have a unique advantage in navigating potential forks in the network.
The method of activation for protocol changes is a contentious topic with no clear best practice.
Bitcoin's governance is complex, and no single group has unilateral power over decisions.
Awareness of governance dynamics can lead to better collective decision-making in the Bitcoin community.
The separation of the consensus engine from the Bitcoin Core could facilitate alternative clients.
The future of Bitcoin's consensus mechanism is uncertain and requires careful monitoring of stakeholder dynamics.
The project discussed is an open-source initiative, inviting community engagement and improvements.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:40) - What is the objective of Bitcoin Consensus Analysis (BCAP)?
(06:55) - What are the technical aspects of the Bitcoin Consensus?
(11:29) - Examples of consensus changes
(16:15) - What are the stakeholder groups in Bitcoin?
(22:57) - Sponsors
(25:34) - What are the various ‘States of Mind’ regarding changes in the Bitcoin Consensus?
(31:00) - Historical context of changes in Bitcoin
(38:56) - The importance of alternative clients in Bitcoin
(47:06) - What power do bitcoin investors have?
(49:31) - Sponsors
(54:33) - Implications of various Activation methods
(1:00:02) - Why is Bitcoin not a democracy of miners?
(1:06:01) - The future of Bitcoin's consensus changes
(1:14:16) - Closing thoughts
Links:
https://github.com/bitcoin-cap/bcap
https://x.com/LynAldenContact
https://x.com/moneyball
Sponsors:
Bold Bitcoin
CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
mempool.space/accelerator
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
Subscribe to the podcast
Subscribe to Substack
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Roman Martinez, Lexi & Stephan discuss the evolving real estate landscape in El Salvador, particularly in the context of Bitcoin adoption. They explore the motivations of various buyers, the impact of recent changes in infrastructure and regulations, and the unique challenges and opportunities present in the market. The conversation also touches on the importance of trust in real estate transactions and the varying expectations of foreign buyers regarding property quality and development. Lexi and Roman also discuss the experience of moving to El Salvador, highlighting cultural adjustments, healthcare quality, language integration, and the real estate market. They emphasize the importance of understanding local customs, the benefits of private healthcare, and the growing expat community.
The podcast also covers the real estate landscape, including prices, investment opportunities, and the significance of discovery trips for potential expats. They conclude by addressing the risks associated with real estate investments and the importance of due diligence.
Takeaways
El Salvador's real estate market is evolving rapidly.
Many buyers are looking for a 'plan B' due to safety concerns.
Bitcoin adoption is influencing real estate investments.
There are no property taxes in El Salvador, attracting investors.
Bitcoin Beach is a key area for Bitcoin enthusiasts.
Real estate transactions require trust and local knowledge.
Expectations of property quality vary among foreign buyers.
Pre-construction projects are gaining popularity.
Education on Bitcoin is crucial for local adoption.
Location is a critical factor in real estate investment decisions. Cultural understanding is crucial for expats in El Salvador.
Healthcare in El Salvador can be better than in the US.
Learning Spanish enhances the experience of living in El Salvador.
Real estate prices have increased significantly in recent years.
El Salvador offers a unique lifestyle that differs from Western norms.
Discovery trips provide valuable insights for potential expats.
The private healthcare system in El Salvador is highly accessible.
Real estate investment requires careful consideration and due diligence.
The expat community in El Salvador is growing and vibrant.
El Salvador is seen as a country with potential for growth and opportunity.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:54) - What is Goodlife El Salvador?; El Salvador’s Real Estate landscape
(04:05) - What is the Real Estate buyer persona in El Salvador?
(05:52) - What motivates people to move to El Salvador?
(10:35) - Bitcoin education, adoption and spending in El Salvador
(15:30) - Living in Bitcoin Hubs & adjacent localities
(20:18) - What are the Real Estate investment trends?
(22:11) - Common pitfalls for new buyers
(27:41) - Sponsors
(29:55) - Quality of development & matching the expectations of expats
(31:49) - Cultural norms & Healthcare in El Salvador
(38:32) - Overcoming language barriers
(41:17) - Real Estate prices & trends in El Salvador
(43:33) - Sponsors
(50:47) - What to expect in El Salvador?; Discovery trips for expats
(57:42) - Navigating Real Estate risks
Links:
https://x.com/goodlife_sv
https://x.com/romanmartinezc
Sponsors:
Bold Bitcoin
CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
mempool.space/accelerator
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
Subscribe to the podcast
Subscribe to Substack
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In this conversation, Freddie New, general counsel at The Little Car and Head of Policy at Bitcoin Policy UK, discusses the evolution of Bitcoin regulation in the UK. He highlights the historical context of regulatory attitudes, the role of the Law Commission in recognizing Bitcoin as property, and the challenges posed by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
The conversation also touches on banking access issues, the impact of fraud concerns, and the future of Bitcoin custodianship. They also discuss the strategic reserve held by the UK government, regulatory challenges faced by Bitcoin exchanges, and the broader policy goals for Bitcoin advocacy. Freddie sheds light on the political landscape and the need for engagement with politicians to promote Bitcoin-friendly policies. Additionally, they address the ECB's recent criticisms of Bitcoin and contrast the regulatory approaches of the UK and EU.
Takeaways
Freddie New advocates for Bitcoin policy in the UK.
The UK has a history of misunderstanding Bitcoin.
The Law Commission has recognized Bitcoin as property.
The FCA has restricted access to Bitcoin products.
Fraud concerns impact banking access for Bitcoin users.
Bitcoin is seen as a unique form of money.
The government is becoming more positive about Bitcoin.
Banks are primarily concerned with self-preservation.
The FCA's stance is a significant barrier to adoption.
Bitcoin is for both individuals and institutions. The UK holds 61,000 Bitcoin, making it the third largest holder.
There is a need for the UK to capitalize on its Bitcoin holdings.
Self-custody of Bitcoin must remain legal in the UK.
Access to exchanges and banking services is crucial for Bitcoin adoption.
The UK should explore the potential of Bitcoin mining using renewable energy.
Political engagement is essential for Bitcoin advocacy in the UK.
The ECB's criticisms of Bitcoin are fundamentally flawed.
The UK and EU have different regulatory approaches to Bitcoin.
Pension funds are beginning to allocate assets to Bitcoin.
Support for Bitcoin Policy UK can help influence positive change.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:00) - Who is Freddie New?
(03:26) - An overview of Bitcoin regulatory scenario in the UK
(08:00) - The shift in perception: From criminality to legitimacy
(17:23) - Are banking onramps/offramps to Bitcoin a hurdle in the UK?
(21:13) - AML regulations & their Implications for Bitcoin
(26:21) - Sponsors
(32:08) - The FCA's resistance to Bitcoin adoption in the UK; Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
(40:43) - Sponsors
(44:02) - Answering a questionnaire to buy Bitcoin in the UK?
(47:51) - What are the Policy Goals for Bitcoin in the UK?; Bitcoin Developer community
(53:06) - Politicians & their stance on Bitcoin advocacy
(1:06:27) - Contrasting UK & EU Regulatory approaches
(1:12:00) - How to support Bitcoin Policy UK?
Links:
https://x.com/freddienew
Bill on digital property that's currently going through Parliament: https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3766
Exchange walkthroughs: https://x.com/freddienew/status/1743644557441470496
https://uk.bitcoinpolicy.net/
http://www.bitcoinpolicy.uk/
Steve Baker speaking on Bitcoin in Parliament in 2014: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXQpXYvUB98
Sponsors:
Bold Bitcoin
CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
mempool.space/accelerator
Nomadcapitalist.com/apply
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
Subscribe to the podcast
Subscribe to Substack
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Eric Yakes & Tyler Stevens join me to discuss their efforts to build a Bitcoin-focused community in Denver through various events, educational initiatives, and sustainable financial practices.
Summary
In this episode, Stephan Livera hosts Eric Yakes and Tyler Stevens to discuss the burgeoning Bitcoin community in Denver and their initiative to establish a dedicated Bitcoin space. They explore the dynamics of the local Bitcoin scene, the vision behind creating a community-driven hub, and the importance of governance and member engagement. The conversation also touches on the philosophy of creating a 'third place' for Bitcoin enthusiasts, comparing their efforts to similar initiatives like Bitcoin Park in Nashville, and outlining plans for coworking and events in their new space. In this conversation, Tyler and Eric emphasize the importance of documentation for leadership transitions, the need for financial sustainability, and the engagement of the developer community. They also share insights on creating educational opportunities and offer advice for others looking to establish similar community spaces.
Takeaways
The Bitcoin community in Denver is rapidly growing.
Creating a Bitcoin space aims to bridge social and technical meetups.
Community-driven governance fosters member engagement and influence.
The 'third place' philosophy emphasizes a balanced community environment.
The Denver Bitcoin space seeks to attract talent from the broader crypto community.
The governance structure allows for member representation and influence.
The space is designed to be a hub for education and events.
The initiative aims to positively influence the local culture and economy.
You need to motivate your local community.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:21) - The vibrant Bitcoin community in Denver; BitDevs
(04:48) - What is Bitcoin Space?
(09:21) - ‘The Third Place’ Philosophy in Bitcoin
(14:45) - Similarities & differences between Bitcoin Space, Denver & Bitcoin Park, Nashville
(15:54) - Community growth & member engagement in Bitcoin Space
(18:57) - Sponsors
(21:39) - Building community through Coworking & Events at Bitcoin Space
(27:00) - Self-sustaining nature of leadership & importance of documentation
(29:32) - Financial sustainability and Treasury management
(32:36) - FOSS Developer community in Denver; Creating Educational initiatives
(33:44) - Sponsors
(42:15) - Advice for aspiring Community Builders
(45:28) - Outro
Includes Paid Partnerships
Links:
Eric Yakes: https://x.com/ericyakes
Tyler Stevens: https://x.com/tylerkstevens
The Space: https://x.com/SpaceDenver
https://denver.space/
Sponsors:
Bold Bitcoin
CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
mempool.space/accelerator
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
Subscribe to the podcast
Subscribe to Substack
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Here are some short interviews I did while at Lugano Plan B on a range of topics, from bitcoin ossification to block size, government regulation, the latest state of wallets, and mining decentralization with:
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:01) - Jimmy Song, Bitcoin Expert
(07:30) - John Carvalho, CEO at Synonym
(12:51) - Sponsors
(15:05) - Dennis Porter, CEO & Co-Founder Satoshi Action Fund
(24:58) - Ben, Host of BTCsessions
(31:54) - Sponsor
(32:50) - Luke Dashjr, CTO OCEAN Mining
(37:53) - Jameson Lopp, Co-founder & Chief Security Officer Cas
(47:22) - Outro
Links:
https://x.com/LuganoPlanB
https://x.com/jimmysong
https://x.com/BitcoinErrorLog
https://x.com/Dennis_Porter_
https://x.com/BTCsessions
https://x.com/LukeDashjr
https://x.com/lopp
Sponsors:
Bold Bitcoin
CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
mempool.space/accelerator
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
Subscribe to the podcast
Subscribe to Substack
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Fabian Jahr and Gloria Zhao rejoin me to discuss whether big projects can be done inside Bitcoin core. We delve into AssumeUTXO, ASMap, developer funding, and meritocracy in the developer community.
Summary
In this episode, Stephan discusses the upcoming Bitcoin Core version 28, its new features, and the ongoing development efforts with Fabian and Gloria. They delve into the pace of change within Bitcoin Core, the importance of communication and collaboration in software development, and the challenges faced by developers in getting projects approved. The conversation also covers the AssumeUTXO project, its implications for node operation, and the significance of funding and competing implementations in the Bitcoin ecosystem. The episode concludes with insights into future projects and the collaborative nature of Bitcoin development.
Takeaways
Bitcoin Core version 28 introduces exciting new features.
The development process involves both small bug fixes and significant changes.
Communication and collaboration are essential for project success.
AssumeUTXO allows for quicker node synchronization.
The decentralized nature of Bitcoin development presents unique challenges.
Funding can influence project focus but should not dictate it.
Competing implementations can complicate backward compatibility.
Iterative development is crucial for large projects.
Engaging the community early can lead to better outcomes.
Future projects like ASMap and Cluster Mempool are on the horizon.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:32) - What to expect from Bitcoin Core V28.0?
(05:10) - What should be the pace of change for Bitcoin Core?
(11:15) - How does one decide which is a worthwhile project to work on?
(14:15) - Why did it take so long for AssumeUTXO to go live?
(20:38) - AssumeUTXO explained
(22:04) - Sponsors
(25:40) - BtcpayServer ‘s Fast Sync
(27:36) - Developer funding landscape in Bitcoin; Working on FOSS
(31:27) - What are the effects of having various implementations of Bitcoin Core?
(35:05) - What does it take to successfully merge a PR?
(37:31) - What is the ASMap project?
(48:34) - Sponsor
(49:58) - Importance of soft skills & meritocracy in Bitcoin’s developer community
(1:00:13) - Upcoming projects; Closing thoughts
Previous Episodes:
`
SLP214 Pierre Rochard & Fabian Jahr – Where Are All The Bitcoins?: https://youtu.be/PQWy_UR9PzY
SLP216 Gloria Zhao Learning Bitcoin Core Contribution & Hosting PR Review Club: https://youtu.be/O-Q-SmuXjS4
SLP404 Gloria Zhao - What Do Bitcoin Core Maintainers Do?: https://youtu.be/a61lUwlOF80
v3 Transactions and Package Relay with Glozow (SLP511): https://youtu.be/H1o7TgTCMjk
Links:
Bitcoin Core v28.0: https://bitcoincore.org/en/download/
ASMap: https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/asmap-creation-process/548
AssumeUTXO tracking: https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/issues/29616
https://bitcoinops.org/en/topics/assumeutxo/
TRUC / v3 topic: https://bitcoinops.org/en/topics/version-3-transaction-relay/
Package relay topic: https://bitcoinops.org/en/topics/package-relay/
Package relay tracking: https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/issues/27463
https://brink.dev
Testnet 4 PR: https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/29775
BIP94: https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/1601
CISA website: https://cisaresearch.org
CISA fellowship: https://x.com/ck_SNARKs/status/1817928417184203162
Sponsors:
Bold Bitcoin
CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
mempool.space/accelerator
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
Subscribe to the podcast
Subscribe to Substack
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Summary
In this conversation, Keith Gardner from Branta, discusses the importance of security in Bitcoin transactions. Keith shares his background in engineering and how he became involved in Bitcoin after recognizing the complexities and risks associated with traditional finance.
The discussion covers common phishing and address replacement attacks, the innovative solutions offered by Branta to enhance transaction security, and the future of Bitcoin in relation to mobile integration and privacy concerns. Keith emphasizes the need for user-friendly tools that can help prevent scams and ensure safe transactions in the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency.
The discussion also covers long-term strategies for Bitcoin custody, innovations in software security, and key takeaways for individuals to safeguard their investments.
Takeaways
Keith Gardner transitioned from engineering to Bitcoin due to complexities in traditional finance.
Branta was created to address the fear of losing Bitcoin through phishing attacks.
Phishing and man-in-the-middle attacks are significant threats in Bitcoin transactions.
Branta aims to provide a solution that verifies Bitcoin addresses before transactions.
Mobile integration is a future goal for Branta, focusing on QR code technology.
Branta operates as an invisible layer alongside existing wallets to enhance security.
Privacy is a critical concern, and Branta ensures user data is protected.
The software does not handle private keys or expose user Xpubs.
Branta's future developments will include support for the Lightning Network.
The goal is to make Bitcoin transactions safer and more user-friendly. Ensure secure transactions by verifying addresses before sending funds.
Phishing attacks are prevalent; always guard your inbox.
Education on security practices is crucial for crypto users.
Creating friction in transactions can prevent impulsive decisions.
Long-term strategies for Bitcoin custody are essential for security.
Utilize multi-sig and cold storage for larger amounts of Bitcoin.
Be cautious of urgency in requests for sensitive information.
Nostra's web of trust can enhance security in transactions.
Regularly check the authenticity of software before downloading.
Treat your Bitcoin as if it were worth significantly more.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:36) - Keith’s background; What is Branta?
(03:10) - Recent attack vectors on Bitcoin (Phishing and Address Replacement)
(08:13) - Is Branta mobile friendly?
(12:12) - Is Branta for personal use or businesses?
(17:09) - Integrating Lightning & other Layer 2 solutions
(18:24) - Sponsors
(26:01) - Privacy concerns and User Data Protection
(31:36) - Guarding against Phishing & Spoofing attacks
(34:37) - Why is friction important in financial transactions?
(38:50) - Bitcoin custody is a long-term responsibility
(39:15) - Sponsors
(44:45) - What are the possible risks with Branta?
(53:14) - Key takeaways for protecting your Bitcoin
Links:
https://x.com/unfakekeith
https://x.com/BrantaOps
https://www.branta.pro/
https://github.com/BrantaOps
Sponsors:
Bold Bitcoin
CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
mempool.space/accelerator
Nomadcapitalist.com/apply
Stephan Livera links:
Follow me on X: @stephanlivera
Subscribe to the podcast
Subscribe to Substack
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Harris Irfan, CEO Cordoba Capital Markets & Advisor at @OnrampMENA joins me to discuss challenges and opportunities within Islamic finance, ethics of finance in business and the intersection of Islamic finance and Bitcoin. Harris highlights building a financial system focused on real economy transactions, sharing insights on finance, custody, and Bitcoin investment.
Summary
In this conversation, Harris Irfan discusses his journey from conventional finance to Islamic finance and Bitcoin. He explores the challenges and opportunities within Islamic finance, particularly in relation to ethical finance and risk-sharing principles. The discussion delves into the intersection of Islamic finance and Bitcoin, highlighting the potential for Bitcoin to serve as a sound monetary system that aligns with Islamic principles. Harris emphasizes the importance of creating a financial system that prioritizes real economy transactions over speculative practices, and he shares insights on the future of finance, custody, and investment decisions in a Bitcoin standard.
Takeaways
Harris Irfan transitioned from conventional finance to Islamic finance and Bitcoin.
Islamic finance emphasizes ethical finance and risk-sharing principles.
Bitcoin is viewed as a modern form of sound money, potentially more Islamic than gold.
The challenges of Islamic finance are exacerbated by the fiat banking system.
Custody solutions for Bitcoin are evolving, with a focus on self-custody.
Cultural perspectives on money influence the adoption of Bitcoin in Muslim communities.
Trade finance can be structured to align incentives between investors and businesses.
The VC industry may need to adapt to a sound money standard.
Hurdle rates for investments will change in a Bitcoin economy.
Optimism about the future of Bitcoin is essential for its growth.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:04) - Harris’s background with finance & Islamic banking
(07:44) - Comparing Fiat banking with Islamic finance
(12:06) - The intersection of Islamic finance and Bitcoin
(18:21) - Custodying Bitcoin - Individuals vs. Trusted custodians
(25:51) - What are misconceptions about Bitcoin among muslims?
(30:20) - What are the cultural differences when operating on a Fiat Standard vs Sound Money Standard?
(33:27) - What does it mean to share risk in finance?
(39:12) - The viability of different financial models
(45:35) - What would finance look like in a Full Reserve Bitcoin banking world?
(54:17) - How does one navigate with morality & ethics in the current Fiat world?
(59:00) - Bitcoin compared to hurdle rates in investment decisions
(1:02:11) - Outro
Includes Paid Partnerships
(16:04) - Sponsors
(38:11) - Sponsor
Links:
https://x.com/harris_irfan
https://www.ccmkts.com/
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Summary
In this episode, Kenji Tateiwa, CEO of Agile Energy X, discusses his extensive background in nuclear engineering and the impact of the Fukushima disaster on public perception of nuclear energy. He explains the innovative concept behind Agile Energy X, which leverages wasted renewable energy through Bitcoin mining to address curtailment and grid congestion issues in Japan. Kenji elaborates on the unique flexibility of Bitcoin mining as an energy buyer and its potential role in the future energy landscape, including the integration of circular economy principles. The conversation also touches on the challenges and opportunities in Japan's energy production, particularly regarding nuclear energy and the need for a diverse energy portfolio.
Takeaways
Kenji Tateiwa has a strong background in nuclear engineering.
The Fukushima disaster significantly impacted public perception of nuclear energy.
Agile Energy X aims to utilize wasted renewable energy through Bitcoin mining.
Bitcoin mining can help solve curtailment and grid congestion issues.
The concept of 'Megawatt to MegaHash' connects energy production to Bitcoin mining.
Bitcoin mining is flexible and can be turned on and off as needed.
AI data centers are less flexible compared to Bitcoin mining.
Agile Energy X has a two-pronged strategy to hedge against market fluctuations.
The circular economy can be integrated into energy solutions.
Japan's energy future requires a diverse mix of energy sources.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:50) - Who is Kenji Tateiwa and what is TEPCO?
(05:34) - What are the various components of energy markets?
(06:30) - Fukushima and the perception of nuclear energy
(09:42) - What is Agile Energy X & why was it created?
(14:15) - Convincing TEPCO to mine Bitcoin; Solving the energy issue
(16:14) - Understanding Curtailment and Grid Congestion
(20:06) - Sponsors
(23:10) - Megawatt to MegaHash: Bridging Energy and Bitcoin
(25:42) - Bitcoin Mining vs. AI Data Centers
(29:02) - The competitive landscape of Bitcoin mining
(33:26) - Sponsors
(37:58) - Challenges and opportunities in Nuclear Energy
(42:12) - Curtailment of renewable energy could reach 42% in Japan by 2050?
(45:41) - Scaling Bitcoin mining in Japan
(47:02) - What is “The Ultimate Circular Economy”?
(51:28) - The future of Japanese energy production
(53:44) - The future of Agile Energy X
Links:
https://agileenergyx.co.jp/en/
Sponsors:
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Lawrence Lepard, Managing Partner, Equity Management Associates, joins me to discuss the national debt crisis, inflation, possible price suppression of hard assets and the contrasting roles of gold and Bitcoin as sound money.
Summary
In this conversation, Stephan Livera and Lawrence Lepard delve into pressing economic issues, including the national debt crisis, inflation, and the contrasting roles of gold and Bitcoin as sound money. They discuss the implications of the upcoming US election on economic policies and the market dynamics of gold and Bitcoin. The conversation also touches on the potential for economic suppression and the future predictions for both gold and Bitcoin in light of current financial trends.
Takeaways
The national debt is accelerating and poses a significant risk.
Inflation is likely to rise again due to government policies.
Gold is currently viewed as a safe haven, but Bitcoin is seen as the future of sound money.
The upcoming US election could have major implications for Bitcoin and economic policies.
Gold ETFs have been shrinking while Bitcoin ETFs are growing, indicating a generational shift in investment.
The suppression of gold prices has been a long-standing issue, but Bitcoin may not face the same challenges yet.
Future predictions suggest Bitcoin could reach $300,000 and gold could hit $5,000 in the next economic crisis.
The need for sound money is becoming increasingly urgent as the dollar loses value.
A monetary reset may be necessary to address the current economic challenges.
Investors should consider diversifying into sound money assets like Bitcoin and gold.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:09) - US Govt. debt spiraling out of control
(07:17) - Gold’s reaction to crisis
(10:14) - Is inflation inevitable?; Managing interest rates
(18:24) - CPI & asset inflation; Overvaluation of assets
(24:18) - Sponsors
(26:34) - Who is buying the Gold?; Gold vs. Bitcoin
(31:10) - Sponsors
(33:12) - What does the US election mean for Bitcoin?
(40:10) - What would cutting the size of the state look like?
(45:58) - The significance of Bitcoin advocacy
(48:43) - Gold & Bitcoin price suppression?
(55:00) - Possible Executive order on Bitcoin in the future?
(57:07) - Will ‘The Next Big Print’ send Bitcoin to $350K?
Links:
https://x.com/LawrenceLepard
https://ema2.com/
Sponsors:
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After a long and choppy bull-crab market, Dr. Ross notes that the bull market is here!
Dr. Jeff Ross, founder, Vailshire Capital Management, joins me to discuss the ongoing sentiment in the markets, global liquidity, pitfalls and opportunities of this bull cycle, holistic living and more!
Summary
In this conversation, Dr. Jeff Ross discusses his transition from a bearish to a bullish outlook on Bitcoin and the broader market, emphasizing the importance of liquidity and central bank policies. He explains how liquidity flows impact asset prices, particularly Bitcoin, and outlines his predictions for economic growth and market behavior in the coming years. The discussion also touches on wealth inequality, the role of Bitcoin in addressing economic disparities, and strategies for investors, including the controversial 8% withdrawal rate for Bitcoin holders.
Takeaways
Liquidity is the key driver of asset prices.
The transition from bear to bull markets is influenced by liquidity flows.
Central banks play a significant role in market dynamics.
Bitcoin is seen as a solution to wealth inequality.
The US dollar remains the strongest currency despite global challenges.
High liquidity environments lead to increased risk-taking behavior.
Investors should consider Bitcoin as a significant part of their portfolio.
Timing the market can be beneficial for fund managers but not for regular investors.
The 8% withdrawal rate is reasonable for Bitcoin holders.
Future economic growth may surprise - to the upside.
Timestamps:
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:48) - Why is Dr. Jeff bullish?; Shift from bull-crab to bull
(03:29) - The significance of M2 Money Supply & Global Liquidity
(07:44) - Will the Fed rate cut increase asset prices?
(10:38) - Liquidity into 2025?
(16:09) - Recession fear overblown?
(22:05) - Ever-increasing US Govt. debt and currency collapse across the world
(30:07) - “Easy money begets stupid & risky behavior”
(37:35) - Detachment of Bitcoin halving cycles from other major cycles
(40:10) - Bhutan on a Bitcoin stacking spree; Changing world-order
(44:01) - How do Gold & Bitcoin perform in a high liquidity environment?
(47:23) - Asset allocation wrt Bitcoin for Institutional investors
(53:23) - $475K Bitcoin target in play?
(57:12) - Caution to take during a bull cycle
(1:00:47) - Financial independence & 8% Withdrawal Rate?
(1:07:24) - Closing thoughts
Links:
https://primal.net/p/npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l
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Andy Edstrom, Head of Managed Wealth at Onramp Bitcoin rejoins me to discuss the govt. debt levels, retirement planning on Bitcoin, price modeling, risks of leverage yield on Bitcoin and more!
Summary
In this episode, Andy Edstrom returns to discuss the evolution of Bitcoin since their last conversation, touching on price modeling, the risks of leverage, and the future of Bitcoin loans. They explore the implications of government debt, the role of gold, and the potential for yield in a Bitcoin standard. The conversation emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and preparing for various economic scenarios.
Takeaways
Bitcoin's evolution has led to increased participation and conversation on the world stage.
Price modeling in Bitcoin is fraught with challenges and often fails to predict future movements.
Leverage in Bitcoin can lead to significant losses, as seen in past market downturns.
The future of Bitcoin loans is uncertain, with a need for better credit analysis and terms.
Retirement planning in a Bitcoin world requires careful consideration of inflation and spending habits.
Government debt is at an all-time high, raising concerns about future economic stability.
Gold still plays a role in the financial landscape, but Bitcoin is seen as the future.
Yield may still exist under a Bitcoin standard, but it will differ from current fiat systems.
The importance of maintaining on-ramps and off-ramps for Bitcoin in the future cannot be overstated.
Expect wild times ahead as economic conditions continue to evolve.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:14) - How has Bitcoin changed since 2019?
(04:12) - How significant are Bitcoin Price Models?
(11:28) - Preparing for all possible scenarios when Bitcoin price appreciates
(14:27) - Should you time the market?; Volatility, Retirement and Tax events to consider.
(22:01) - How has the market for leverage on Bitcoin evolved? (27:45) - Sponsors
(30:40) - The case for loans with Bitcoin as a collateral
(38:04) - Retirement planning and achieving FIRE with Bitcoin?
(43:20) - Bitcoin on its way to $400K?
(50:14) - The instability of the growing US Govt. Debt - what happens next?
(55:25) - Sponsors
(57:47) - The Haves and the Have Nots; Overvaluation of property markets
(1:01:57) - What does yield look like on a Bitcoin Standard?
(1:13:22) - Closing thoughts
Links:
https://x.com/edstromandrew
https://www.amazon.com/Books-Andy-Edstrom/s?rh=n%3A283155%2Cp_27%3AAndy+Edstrom
https://x.com/OnrampBitcoin/status/1836029421922263074
Sponsors:
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With growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin through custodians, investors will demand transparency through ‘Proof of Reserves’. Alexander Leishman, CEO & CTO, River joins me to discuss more of the institutional adoption of Bitcoin, Coinbase’s hesitation towards Proof of Reserves, US Govt. debt and more.
Summary
In this episode of the Stephan Livera podcast, host Stephan speaks with Alex Leishman, CEO and CTO of River, about various topics surrounding Bitcoin, including the current state of exchanges like Coinbase, the importance of proof of reserves, and the growing adoption of Bitcoin among businesses. They discuss the implications of stablecoins, the comparison between Bitcoin and gold, and the future of Bitcoin technology. Alex emphasizes the need for transparency in the industry and the importance of maintaining a solid foundation for Bitcoin's development.
Takeaways
Coinbase likely has the coins they claim, but proof is needed.
Proof of reserves should include liabilities for full transparency.
Bitcoin adoption is growing among businesses of all sizes.
Stablecoins serve as a necessary tool for many users.
The future of Bitcoin as a store of value is promising.
Gold's historical significance may not hold against Bitcoin's advantages.
Self-custody remains a challenge for many Bitcoin users.
Bitcoin technology is evolving, focusing on reliability and security.
The political landscape may influence Bitcoin's regulatory environment.
Community education is crucial for fostering trust in custodians.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:34) - Does Coinbase hold all the Bitcoin they claim to?
(02:33) - What happens when liabilities are more than assets?
(06:44) - @River ‘s Proof of Reserves - Explained
(10:32) - How does Proof of Reserves mitigate the risk of ‘Paper Bitcoin’?
(12:07) - Sponsors
(14:22) - Why Proof of Reserves could be difficult to implement for Coinbase?
(17:56) - Why Business Bitcoin adoption grew by 30% in 1 year
(21:30) - The increasing US Govt. debt & the role of Bitcoin
(23:08) - Gold vs Bitcoin
(26:32) - Risks of centralization of Bitcoin custody through ETFs
(30:45) - Sponsor
(34:15) - Bitcoin’s role in commerce - Store of Value of Medium of Exchange?
(38:00) - Does Bitcoin need an upgrade?
(41:24) - Are stablecoins a hindrance to Bitcoin adoption?
(47:20) - US Presidential election affecting Bitcoin
(52:56) - Way forward with Bitcoin Development
(56:45) - Closing thoughts
Links:
https://x.com/Leishman
https://x.com/River/status/1831374555530830304
https://x.com/Leishman/status/1836406012405772568
Sponsors:
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Secession may seem like a dirty word, but it has happened many times in history and it’s worth understanding the political and economic benefits it can yield. Ryan McMaken, Executive Editor and Economist at the Mises Institute joins me to discuss his book, Breaking Away.
Summary
In this conversation, Stephan and Ryan McMaken discuss the topic of secession and its advantages. They explore the historical and theoretical context of secession, highlighting the benefits of radical decentralization and the success of small, economically prosperous states.
They also examine the conditions that enable breakaway states, including economic factors, military power, and ethnic or nationalistic identity. The conversation emphasizes the need for people to come to terms with the reality that the federal government cannot offer long-term economic prosperity and that unity does not necessarily mean shared values or interests.
The conversation explores the challenges and potential solutions related to secession and breakaway movements. It discusses the negotiation process for exiting a larger government entity, the impact on national debt and pension obligations, and the historical examples of successful secession.
The conversation also touches on the Brexit movement and the potential for secession movements in the United States. It emphasizes the importance of developing competing elites at the state level and gradually asserting more local control over policies and resources.
Takeaways
Radical decentralization and the success of small, economically prosperous states are key advantages of secession.
Breakaway states often emerge when the benefits of political unity no longer outweigh the benefits of separation.
Conditions that enable secession include economic factors, military power, and ethnic or nationalistic identity.
The federal government cannot guarantee long-term economic prosperity, and unity does not necessarily mean shared values or interests. Secession and breakaway movements require careful negotiation, especially regarding national debt and pension obligations.
Historical examples show that debt write-downs and negotiations are common in secession processes.
Brexit can be seen as a failure or a missed opportunity, depending on one's perspective.
Competing elites at the state level can challenge the entrenched interests of the federal government.
Gradual steps, such as asserting control over border policy and creating state-level institutions, can pave the way for secession.
Developing local revenue sources is crucial to reduce reliance on federal funds and assert more autonomy.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:00) - What is Secession and why care about it?(05:25) - Why has the number of countries tripled since WW2?(09:00) - Why be Pro-secession?
(14:45) - Pros & Cons of a ‘Large’ State; Political Decentralization
(19:28) - Sponsors
(21:45) - Advantages of smaller countries
(27:30) - Conditions that enable the pathway to Secession
(33:11) - Sponsors
(41:07) - Dealing with Government Debt & obligations in a Secession
(46:23) - Was Brexit a failure?
(56:28) - Secession in the USA: A distant dream?
(1:02:42) - Elites vs. Counter-elites
(1:06:58) - Secession movements in the USA
(1:15:39) - Closing thoughts
Links:
https://mises.org/profile/ryan-mcmaken
https://mises.org/library/book/breaking-away-case-secession-radical-decentralization-and-smaller-polities
https://x.com/ryanmcmaken
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My friend Pierre Rochard (VP Research at Riot Platforms) rejoins me on the show to discuss some of his latest views.
Summary
In this conversation, Stephan and Pierre discuss the concept of long-term savings in Bitcoin and its product-market fit. Pierre introduces a metric for measuring long-term savings by looking at the age of UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs). They also explore the idea of rebalancing and the importance of aligning financial decisions with personal goals. The conversation then shifts to the challenges of running a profitable business in a Bitcoin standard and the role of passive index equity investing in a hyper Bitcoinized world. Further, Pierre and Stephan discuss the implications of individuals and governments holding Bitcoin. They explore the idea of investing time in Bitcoin rather than just money, and how businesses can leverage Bitcoin without large capital investments. They also touch on the moral implications of educating others about Bitcoin and the potential cultural changes that may occur on a Bitcoin standard. The conversation concludes with a discussion on government adoption of Bitcoin and the impact it may have on society.
Takeaways
Bitcoin has found product-market fit in the area of long-term savings, as evidenced by the increasing number of UTXOs that have not moved in more than a year.
The age of Bitcoin UTXOs can provide insights into the behavior of hodlers and the overall health of the Bitcoin network.
Rebalancing should be driven by personal goals and values, rather than trying to time the market or follow others' advice.
In a Bitcoin standard, it may be challenging for businesses to outperform Bitcoin in terms of returns, but there may still be a role for active investing and supporting entrepreneurial ventures.
Passive index equity investing may become less prevalent in a hyper Bitcoinized world, as individuals prioritize holding Bitcoin and investing in businesses they are actively involved in. Investing time in Bitcoin can be just as valuable as investing money.
Businesses can leverage Bitcoin without large capital investments.
Educating others about Bitcoin is important, but it's not necessary to force people onto the Bitcoin journey.
Cultural changes on a Bitcoin standard may include a shift towards lower time preference and more focus on family and spirituality.
Government adoption of Bitcoin can move them away from being a state and towards a more decentralized entity.
The amount of Bitcoin a government holds should be based on their immediate needs and the uncertainty of the future.
Government adoption of Bitcoin can accelerate Bitcoin adoption among individuals.
The moral implications of the government holding Bitcoin depend on whether it leads to the violation of the non-aggression principle.
Taxation with Bitcoin becomes more difficult, which may lead to a reduction in government spending.
Advocating for a strategic reserve of Bitcoin can lead to more conversations and ultimately more Bitcoin adoption.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:57) - Bitcoin’s Product-Market Fit for Long-Term Savings
(02:12) - Measuring Long-Term Savings with UTXO Age
(10:56) - Should you Rebalance your UTXOs?; Financial Decision-Making through Rebalancing(21:17) - Sponsors
(23:57) - Is Running a Business on a Bitcoin Standard Profitable?
(33:22) - Passive Index Equity Investing in a Hyper Bitcoinized World
(39:43) - Trading your Time & Expertise for Bitcoin
(44:32) - Educating Others about Bitcoin
(48:35) - Societal & Cultural Changes on a Bitcoin Standard
(53:07) - Sponsors
(1:02:00) - Should the State Hold Bitcoin?; Neutrality vs Central Planning
(1:13:41) - Advocating for a Strategic Reserve of Bitcoin; Accelerating Bitcoin Adoption
Links:
https://x.com/BitcoinPierre
Pierre’s analysis: https://x.com/BitcoinPierre/status/1831163386182164937
Hoppe article mentioned: https://mises.org/mises-daily/yield-money-held-reconsidered
Blocktime Podcast by Riot: https://www.blocktimebyriot.com/
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Tankred Hase has experience working with various Bitcoin and Lightning companies such as Lightning Labs and Swan previously. He joins me to talk about Bitcoin, Lightning and Liquid. We discuss some of the real world challenges and trade offs that builders and developers face, as well as the likely path forward from here.
Summary
Tankred discusses the current state of Bitcoin, Lightning, and Liquid development. He highlights the progress made in terms of user experience and liquidity. However, he also acknowledges the challenges that still need to be addressed, such as capital gains taxes, technical hurdles, and the need for more user-friendly solutions. Tankred emphasizes the importance of having multiple options for using Bitcoin as money, including custodial solutions, Liquid, and trust-minimized solutions like Fedimint. He also discusses the trade-offs involved in designing user-friendly Bitcoin and Lightning apps. Tankred and Stephan discuss the different trade-offs and options available in the Bitcoin ecosystem, particularly in the context of Lightning Network and Liquid. They highlight that while some Bitcoin enthusiasts prioritize non-custodial and pure Bitcoin solutions, many users, especially in regions like Dubai, Turkey, and South America, opt for custodial exchanges like Binance for their convenience.
Tankred introduces StashPay, a solution that leverages the Breeze SDK and Liquid to offer lower fees for receiving payments. They also discuss the future of Lightning, including broader adoption of Bolt 12, asynchronous payments, and improved privacy for receivers.
Takeaways
Bitcoin and Lightning have made significant progress in terms of user experience and liquidity.
There are still challenges to be addressed, such as capital gains taxes and technical hurdles.
Having multiple options for using Bitcoin as money, including custodial solutions, Liquid, and trust-minimized solutions, is important for broader adoption.
Designing user-friendly Bitcoin and Lightning apps requires making trade-offs and understanding the needs of different user populations. Users in the Bitcoin ecosystem have different preferences and priorities when it comes to trade-offs and options.
Custodial exchanges like Binance are popular for their convenience, even among Bitcoin enthusiasts.
StashPay, using the Breeze SDK and Liquid, offers a solution with lower fees for receiving payments.
The future of Lightning includes broader adoption of Bolt 12, asynchronous payments, and improved privacy for receivers.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:43) - Current state of Bitcoin, Lightning, Liquid development
(02:10) - Does the market support Bitcoin as a Medium of Exchange yet?
(05:20) - What stops people spending/earning now?(18:42) - Sponsors
(20:55) - Advancing Bitcoin as MoE
(29:49) - Sponsors
(30:45) - Using Liquid and navigating skepticism around it
(35:29) - What is StashPay?; Leveraging Breez SDK
(43:00) - How does it compare with BtcpayServer
(47:51) - Leveraging the economic density of Lightning Network
Links:
https://x.com/tankredhase
https://blog.onionmill.com/p/introducing-stashpay-a-bitcoin-wallet
Sponsors:
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Philipp Bagus rejoins me to discuss his newest book, ‘Full Reserve Banking versus The Real Bills Doctrine’. This is his response to Juan Ramón Rallo, and in it we discuss:
🔸 The currency school and the banking school
🔸The problem of ‘double availability’
🔸Why the creation of fiduciary media is a problem
🔸The correct categorization of goods and money
🔸Full Reserve in a Bitcoin world?
🔸Milei’s work in Argentina
Summary:
In this conversation, Stephan interviews Dr. Philipp Bagus about the full reserve banking versus the real bills doctrine. They discuss:
The importance of the fractional reserve banking system and its impact on the monetary system and society as a whole.
The historical context of the currency school versus the banking school debate in the 19th century.
The concept of double availability and its implications for the stability of the money supply.
The real bills doctrine and its justification for fractional reserve banking.
The categorization issues surrounding money and financial assets.
In this conversation, Philipp Bagus discusses the flaws of fractional reserve banking and the importance of understanding the distinction between stock and flow of savings. He explains that holding fiduciary media, such as government bonds, does not count as real savings because it involves credit transactions and does not free up consumer goods. Bagus also explores the potential for banking systems to evolve on top of Bitcoin, highlighting the need for full reserves and the importance of legal enforcement to prevent fraud. He concludes by discussing the economic and political challenges faced by Argentina's President Javier Milei.
Takeaways:
Fractional reserve banking, where banks create new money out of thin air, is a major problem in the monetary system and has far-reaching ramifications.
The debate between full reserve banking and fractional reserve banking has historical roots and has been a topic of discussion among Austrian economists.
The concept of double availability is crucial in understanding the distinction between loans and deposits, and the potential for credit expansion and business cycles.
The real bills doctrine, which justifies fractional reserve banking, is based on the idea that banks can issue short-term loans backed by goods, but it fails to address the inherent problems of credit expansion.
Money is not a financial asset, but a present good that facilitates exchange and reduces uncertainty. It is distinct from financial assets and should be categorized separately. Understanding the distinction between stock and flow of savings is crucial in evaluating the flaws of fractional reserve banking.
Holding fiduciary media, such as government bonds, does not count as real savings because it involves credit transactions and does not free up consumer goods.
The evolution of banking systems on top of Bitcoin should prioritize full reserves and legal enforcement to prevent fraud.
President Javier Milei of Argentina faces economic and political challenges in his efforts to reform the country's monetary system.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(01:05) - Why care about full reserve banking?
(03:18) - Currency school vs the Banking school and the role of Mises
(09:15) - Free banking vs Fractional Reserve banking - the issue of double availability
(17:17) - What is the Real Bills Doctrine?
(31:50) - Sponsors
(34:27) - The issue with the desire for a ‘stable money’
(41:20) - “Everything is either a real asset or a financial asset.” - J.R. Rallo; monetary substitutes
(46:42) - Is money a financial asset?; Cash holdings (Stock) vs Savings (Flow)
(55:21) - Sponsor
(56:51) - Why does holding fiduciary media not count as ‘real savings’?
(1:00:30) - Summarizing the critique
(1:03:56) - Bitcoin substitutes - Ecash, Ark, L-BTC, Custodial bitcoin
(1:13:27) - Potential for Bitcoin to evolve as a Full Reserve banking system
(1:18:45) - Positive & negative assessment of Javier Milei
(1:26:07) - Implication of stablecoin use in Argentina
Links:
https://x.com/PhilippBagus
https://mises.org/profile/philipp-bagus
https://mises.org/library/book/full-reserve-banking-versus-real-bills-doctrine
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