Afleveringen
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It’s a busy period at the moment for work travel and holidays, so this week’s episode is appearing a few days early – and we kick things off by looking at NZ’s $1m+ property markets, some of which are no surprise (e.g Auckland, Queenstown), but also some which aren’t quite as obvious.
Meanwhile, the recent economic data – such as the NZ Activity Index – hasn’t done anything to change the strong odds that the OCR is cut again on 9th October, which will keep the downwards pressure on mortgage rates. The effects of that are already showing through in mortgage lending activity, which is rising, with low-deposit activity also picking up.
Looking ahead, we’re awaiting filled jobs data, business confidence, dwelling consents, and figures on the loan terms being chosen by new borrowers – short fixes have been popular lately, so it’ll be interesting to see how August’s figures shape up.
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With Kelvin away on holiday Nick calls up Mark Harris from New Zealand Sotheby's International Realty hear what's going on the premium property market, including the always-of-interest Queenstown Lakes district.
Mark also speaks about the impact of the foreign buyer ban and the potential for it to be loosened in order to increase foreign investment into the NZ economy.
Mark then delves into other policy changes - shortening of the Brightline test, reintroduction of interest deductibility, loosening of LVRs and introduction of DTIs. It's all covered in a wide-ranging chat which also includes a roundup of last week's data releases - importantly the GDP result for Q2, and what it could mean for the RBNZ's next OCR call on October 9.
And make sure you download the latest monthly chart pack to keep at your side for future reference.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Following the latest update to the CoreLogic Mapping the Market tool, visualising values and value change by suburb, Nick and Kelvin discuss some of the results as well as the awesome level of info freely available to anyone who's interested. The results illustrate the recent weakness of the property market, but also the importance of keeping a long term view as the better-looking 12 month view shows.
Then from an economic perspective there's plenty to sink your teeth into (or should it be to swallow your ears?) with both net migration and rental prices continuing to slow.
The rental price data was also part of the broader price indices tracking from Stats NZ and on that note things continue to look good that inflation will be back below the 3% annual rate by the end of the quarter.
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A week on the road, combined with the latest HVI data and RBNZ lending stats leads Nick and Kelvin to discussing all the considerations for picking the term of fixed loans.
There's also Stats NZ building work put in place data for Q2 to cover off the other key topic of the moment - construction. While caution remains, there appears to be signs of optimism, though we also wouldn't get carried away with any rays of sunshine foreshadowing the dawn of summer.
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Kelvin's article is the main source of conversation this week, as the recent lift in upsizers and smaller investors takes focus, as well as a look into who are securing recent new builds.
This also flows well into a chat about the latest RBNZ lending data looking into market reaction from looser LVRs and DTIs. Another key point of note reamins the higher levels of bank switchers too.
From a broader economic perspective there's a promising result from the recent business confidence survey, but expectations still remain in check from both consumer confidence and filled jobs data. Plus, there's also reason to remain cautious of the encouraging building consent figures.
Lastly, a deeper look into regional business costs comes courtesy of a question from Nathan and the granularity of the Cordell construction cost data.
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This week, Nick chats to Cam Muggeridge, Adviser for Loan Market Central, in Auckland.
Cam has extensive knowledge of the lending sector, insurance, and property development industry. With his experience coming up through the advisor world, Cam has a thorough understanding of the home loan process and a passion for making that process easy to understand and as stress-free as possible for his clients.
In this chat with Nick, Cam outlays how the market has reacted to the recent fall in the OCR. How it has seen enquiries from both new and existing clients interested in making the reduction work for them.
Cam also details what the discussion looks like when it comes to breaking fixed rates with banks and how to manage expectations and stress levels in the new decreasing interest rate environment.
With his background in property development, Cam also offers insight into his conversations and expectations for the still-vulnerable construction sector.
Lastly Cam ponders the impact of open banking on NZ.
Cam can be contacted on [email protected], 027 687 5785 or google for him and the rest of the team at Loan Market Central.
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This week, off the back of the release of the latest Monthly Chart Pack, Nick and Kelvin discuss the stats of listings on the market, both for sale and for rent.
There are so many factors to consider, including migration, investor regulations, local job markets and first home buyer activity and the truth is there's no easy explanation of why the markets are where they are currently at. The latest read of data can help though.
Elsewhere there's REINZ latest release to pore over and a bunch of economic data, essentially reiterating the struggling economy.
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5 days later and the OCR cut to 5.25% still feels like big news. Since the call from the RBNZ, Nick and Kelvin have both been out in the market gathering responses from the market and today Nick details some figures to help answer the question "how far do interest rates need to fall before the dent-to-income restrictions kick in?"
Kelvin then takes us through the release of the CoreLogic Housing Affordability report for Q2 and plenty of macro-economic releases, including a few of the 'softer', but more frequent data series that the RBNZ are also paying closer attention to.
This month's video is now on YouTube.
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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released MPS and with it, a drop in the OCR.
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With the Labour market stats covered off in the reactionary pod last week, Nick and Kelvin's minds turn quickly to the big release from the RBNZ this week, their Monetary Policy Statement.
There's has been plenty of speculation, criticism and advice about what to do but ultimately it's hard not to see the Bank being consistent with their plan to err on the side of caution and delay any loosening until inflation is truly under control, with concrete data to support it.In other news, the Pain & Gain report for Q2 reflected the market in retreat and first home buyers remain active in comparison to other buyers.
Lastly, how lucky were the ABs and NZ Rugby that Olympic gold-medal fever took over to detract from a pretty woeful performance in front of a disappointing crowd in Wellington? Not that it bothered Nick and his son, in attendance, too much.
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This week, Nick chats to Michelle Isemonger, Adviser for Loan Market East, in Auckland.
Michelle brings a youthful exuberance to being an advisor while drawing extensively from the successful experience around her.
Nick and Michelle cover a lot in this chat, from first home buyer priorities to mover preferences, all the way to what's going on with interest rates and the basis for deciding how long to fix your mortgage.
Plenty of regulatory chat in there too, from the shortening of Brightline test to all the CCCFA changes over the years, this discussion will give all listeners plenty of ammo when it comes to understanding and discussing the current housing market.
Michelle can be contacted on [email protected] or google for her and Team Patton.
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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released Labour Market stats for Q2.
Nick reckons they're pretty 'meh' and Kelvin's take is that it probably reduces the chance of a cut to the OCR, as some bank economists have called for, next week.
Recent volatility across global financial markets, particularly Japan, has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works, but ultimately we expect the RBNZ to hold the line in the MPS next Wednesday. Though they are likely to use the statement to reset expectations for inflation and monetary policy for the rest of the year.
Things will then turn pretty quickly, to how many and how fast cuts are going to come, once the RBNZ primes the market for the first one.
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In exciting news for the CoreLogic Research team, and fellow housing data nerds, we've now got a brand new index to measuring housing value change over time!
The launch of the CoreLogic hedonic Home Value Index firstly reported a further fall in property values in July, the fifth month in a row for the 'renewed downturn'. This brought with it plenty of discussion as to how to classify the weakness which then flowed on to some of the detail into the index itself - including what even is a hedonic regression index? Ultimately it's a better way to measure value over time. Nick and Kelvin cover off some of the detail, but there's plenty of technical documentation on the CoreLogic website, along with the weekly back series and plenty of FAQ to satisfy the data scientist and modelling analysts out there.
In other property and macroeconomic news the latest filled jobs data offers a good preview of the official labour market stats out this week and Nick add a bit of 'actual new build' data to the reporting of building consents.
Plus, business confidence data, RBNZ lending figures and a token nod to the ever-entertaining Olympics following a weekend where the guys' kids consider if they could be Olympic athletes in the trampoline or 100m sprint!
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This week the guys chat about June lending data from the Reserve Bank and improving consumer confidence data. There's always a bit below the surface to pay attention too so the quieter week for data allows for a deeper look into these data.
Also, what's behind NZ townhouse boom? That's the question Kelvin posed as he delved into the Market Trends dataset to understand the impact on overall stock of all the townhouses we've been consenting and building, particularly in Auckland.
Then a look ahead to the launch of the new Hedonic Home Value Index and plenty of other data coming your way.
Lastly, Nick passes on some of the wisdom gained from Dominick Stephen's latest presentation - including a new term for the lads -"Slowbilisation".
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Following their own BSOD issues amid the CrowdStrike nightmare, the guys finally get a chance to catch up to review the week that was in the property market.
As it turns out it was a good chance to take stock of the overall market, amid the release of the latest CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack and monthly video.
REINZ' latest data for June also provided an opportunity to assess the latest movements in Auckland and following the initial reactionary podcast, Nick and Kelvin wrap up the market response to the CPI inflation results for Q2. Upshot - interest rate cuts will be sooner.
Lastly, and there'll be more to follow on this one, the new CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index was previewed in a webinar last week, ahead of go live on August 1, so keep a look out for that one.
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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI data for Q2.
Headline inflation is now just above the target band of 1-3% but there's plenty of detail and nuance to discuss. Most importantly, what will the RBNZ Monetary Policy make of it when they next meet on 14 August?
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Every week seems to be coming with a little bit more hope of relief for mortgage holders and this week is no different. Following the change in tone of the RBNZ's OCR statement last week, we can now add weak economic data in the form of the NZ Activity Index for June, migration turning negative and further weakness for the property market.
The construction industry continues to go through tough times too, though at least from a consumers perspective this means the cost to build is decreasing - as the Cordell Cost Construction for Q2 illustrated.
All up it's been a busy week of property data, including Reserve Bank data on the tenure of loans chosen by borrowers in May, rental price figures, CoreLogic Buyer Classification for June and hot off the press REINZ sales for June.
Plus, Nick supplied RNZ with some data on 'accidental landlords'.
That's it on a tough weekend for the English (rugby, football) and a good one for the Spanish (tennis, football, Sail GP)…
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This week, Nick chats to Dan Bailey, Adviser for Loan Market Capital & Coast.
Before Nick and Dan get into the advisor world, including Dan's experience of the current market, the three guys quickly review the just-released OCR review. In the review, the RBNZ held the rate at 5.5%, but notable softened their stance of the economic environment, increasing chances of a 'sooner than later' cut to the OCR.
Dan has a long and successful career in banking and finance and with his knowledge of the Lower Hutt and Wellington markets in particular, he has great insight into the impact of regulation, government intervention and a costly new build market.
Plenty of food for thought as we navigate a still-challenging and always intriguing property market.
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There's plenty of property data and news to get into this week as Nick welcomes back Kelvin from a week away from the pod.
The CoreLogic House Price Index showed further struggles for the housing market, particularly in Auckland, but perhaps the biggest news came from the Housing Minister who detailed the Government's 'Going for Growth' strategy which is all about improving the availability of land for more properties - going up and out.
There's also filled jobs data providing insight on our softening labour market and dwelling consent figures illustrating the still-in-decline construction sector.
And it's a big week coming up - OCR decision on Wednesday, which will come with a reactionary and guest podcast special.
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With Kelvin away, Nick calls up Ed McKnight, Resident Economist at Opes Partners to discuss everything that's going on in the market right now.
Nick and Ed talk through the couple of data releases from last week which are limited to ANZ's confidence survey data and RBNZ lending figures, but they provide plenty of fodder for conversation on the broader market dynamics. Why is confidence so low and where did the big jump in new lending come from?
Being 1 July there are also a number of changes which affect the market from today, including the shortening of the Brightline test, introduction of DTI limits and loosening of LVR restrictions. Nick and Ed talk through all the implications of those changes as well as expectations for the OCR and interest rates.
Throw in the news of Resimac ceasing new lending operations in NZ and you've got a broad AND deep analysis of the NZ mortgage market as well as an assessment of both investor and owner occupier prospects.
Check out Ed's work and the team at Opes Partners at https://www.opespartners.co.nz/
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