Afleveringen
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Matthew Pines is the Executive Director of the Bitcoin Policy Institute and an advisor to Skywatcher, a privately-funded UAP crash retrieval program. We talk:
(2:30) How to spend time outside the Overton window to identify low probability, high impact events.
(8:30) How UAPs moved from the realm of Alex Jones to the National Defense Authorization Act.
(12:30) Has Bitcoin been captured by the state?
(28:10) Odds for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in 2025?
(41:40) Is it bad for Bitcoin if DOGE gets government spending under control?
(58:31) How does Matt evaluate new whistleblower claims about UAPs?
(63:37) Matt's personal confidence level for various UAP scenarios: existence, reverse engineering, genetic materials, psionic assets, etc.
(70:36) How can we bet on this? What types of prediction markets will help us evaluate disclosures coming this year?
(79: 44) What will Skywatcher do if / when they retrieve a UAP?
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* Bitcoin Policy Institute
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Disclaimer
Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com -
Jeff Park is the Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, and the author of “Radical Portfolio Theory,” the case for a portfolio with 60% centralized state maximal assets, and 40% decentralized, private assets that are state power resistant.
As part of the 40% “resistance” bucket, Jeff argues for an allocation to professional gambling, which could include things like sports betting, poker, and, yes, prediction market trading. We talk:
* DeepSeek: Is “phase 1” of the AI trade over?
* Prediction Markets: Mental tricks from options trading
* Institutional Adoption of Information Markets: Are the banks coming for our Taylor Swift engagement shares?
* The Microstrategy Trade: Who’s the sucker at the table and why convertible equity could be a game changer
* Prediction Rapid Fire
* Strategic Bitcoin reserve when?
* Next nation-states to buy BTC
* Which Microstrategy risks are overblown and what Jeff worries about with the trade
* One big mistake to avoid in BTC price markets
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Disclaimer
Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com -
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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On Friday January 3rd the House of Representatives will vote to select the next Speaker. On Polymarket the odds for whether Johnson will be out as Speaker before inauguration sit at 12%.
But a Substack post this morning by veteran reporter Chris Cillizza argued that these odds are too low and the current narrow Republican majority in the House makes it a real possibility that Johnson could face a substantial challenge.
We caught up with Chris for a chat on why he thinks the market is potentially overrating Johnson’s chances and what it means for the Speaker vote and Trump’s second term agenda.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com -
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Today we are publishing our first podcast, a conversation recorded Friday with Jim Bianco covering all things macro through the lens of Polymarket odds. We cover:
* When Jim thinks the Fed's rate cutting cycle might end,
* What Trump's tariffs might look like,
* The odds for a US bank failure in the coming months,
* Jim's contrarian take on what he expects Powell to say at the FOMC press conference this week; and
* What economic markets Jim would like to see on Polymarket
Disclaimer
Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com
