Afleveringen
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This week’s episode is all about Kiwi trade. Specifically, looking at the positive movement we saw in our terms of trade at the end of last year. Higher meat and dairy export prices, strong production, and a favourable NZ dollar should provide a meaningful boost to export earnings and incomes for our farmers and rural regions. Looking to our export services, tourism levels have also edged their way closer to pre-covid levels. We also discuss how the lower Kiwi dollar is adding additional support for our Kiwi exports. And of course, we couldn’t go without touching on the potential headwinds created by looming Trump trade policies. Still, beyond all the noise, one crucial lesson stands out: the need to diversify our trade.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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The same uncertainty and volatility from Trump 2.0 that is causing big swings in wholesale rates is also wreaking havoc across equities. We were very fortunate to have Mike Taylor, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Pie Funds, join us on a special bonus episode to discuss his view on equity markets. And strategies to navigate investing in these volatile times. It's a jam-packed episode. We cover everything from where we see equities ending the year, to discussions on cryptocurrency and gold. Plus, a conversation on kiwi superannuation. This is one to watch.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Ross Weston, Kiwibank Head of Balance Sheet, is back on the podcast and it’s another jam-packed episode. In the wake of Trump 2.0, global uncertainty is dominating headlines and markets. Wholesale interest rates have seen big swings up and down. Beyond that, we cover expectations of future RBNZ meetings. Always one step ahead, market traders are already looking beyond the current cutting cycle and thinking about the next move – hikes. We also chat about RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation and what that means for future monetary policy and whether a review of bank capital policies could be in the books.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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The housing market is prepped, primed and positioned for a pick up. Interest rates are the biggest driver of moves in the market. But recent changes to the Brightline test, CCCFA, interest deductibility and so on should also help investors off the sideline. The RBNZ also tinkered with its macroprudential toolkit easing up its handbrake on credit growth. We go through each key change and its likely impact. We also address the factors affecting the demand and supply of housing and what it means for our forecasts.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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The RBNZ cut the cash rate to 3.75%, and signalled more cuts to come. With inflation now stabilising, the economy needs relief.
In this episode, we run through the RBNZ’s latest policy statement and fresh forecasts. The Kiwi economy is set to recover this year, but there remains key uncertainties. There are signs of improvement in more timely activity indicators, but the balance of risks to the outlook are skewed to the downside. We discuss what this means for financial markets.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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This week we’re diving into the power of inflation expectations. History has proven expectations of inflation are self-reinforcing. Expect low inflation and low inflation you shall receive. Expect high inflation and high inflation it is. The great news is that here at home, inflation expectations are freshly anchored at the RBNZ 2% sweet spot. We discuss the importance of the move, and how it should give the RBNZ confidence to deliver more.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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Unemployment is higher, employment growth remains in contraction, workers are being forced to the exits, and even total hours worked are in decline. The labour market continues to soften. We're delving into the details, including the demographic and the industry breakdown on who felt the brunt of the labour market slow down over 2024. With 32,000 jobs lost, there’s a lot of pain out there. Most of which has been felt by men and those newest to the labour force.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.
Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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This week we take a look at the mortgage book across Aotearoa. In anticipation of further rate cuts from the RBNZ the book has shortened up with 81% of borrowers fixing for one year or less.It’s a gamble that’s paying off. Naturally, the question now turns to when borrowers should fix for longer. We give our two cents. The move to shorter-dated rates is also a large driver in why we expect a recovery in the second half of this year. However, the longer-term outlook for growth is inhibited by ongoing kiwi productivity woes. We dive deeper into the Kiwi productivity problem and discuss the causes and solutions to achieve a more productive economy.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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We're back from break and feeling good about 2025.
In this episode, we cover our expectations for the Kiwi economy this year - a year of two halves. The first half sees the economy is in an awkward phase. Confidence has improved, but activity is still depressed. Growth however should pick up in the second half as interest rate cuts feed through to the economy. Things are falling into place for a better year.
We also touch on everything you may have missed over the break. From the latest inflation and business confidence numbers to the recent moves in the Kiwi following Trump's inauguration.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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In the last episode of the year, Hamish Wilkinson is back to talk to Jarrod and Mary Jo about the Kiwi currency.
They go through how the Kiwi is holding up against the Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen. They also throw Hamish a curly cross that makes him try to phone a friend...Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow their economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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Black Friday deals are everywhere, and it’s been hard to escape the ads since mid-November. But what’s the real impact on consumer behaviour? Join Kiwibank Economist Mary Jo Vergara as she unpacks the latest card spending data from Black Friday, offering valuable insights into spending patterns and what we can expect this festive season, including Boxing Day. Tune in for a deep dive into shifting trends and a look ahead at the retail landscape for 2025.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow their economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 13th episode ofMarkets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is a detailed run-down of the Reserve Bank's November Monetary Policy Statement. Where are interest rates heading from here? And what does this mean for Kiwi households and businesses? They discuss it all. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow their economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 12th episode ofMarkets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is all about the Kiwi commercial property.
Just like the housing market, commercial property has beenhit hard by the Reserve Bank’s heavy handed hikes. But the downturn across commercial property goes beyond a story of high interest rates. Since Covid, and the lockdowns that followed, behavioural shifts like working from home andthe rise of online shopping has added extra headwinds to the commercial property landscape.
The Kiwibank Economists discuss what’s happening, and what’s in store for retail, offices and industrial properties.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.
Follow their economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 11th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is all about the Kiwi housing market.
As Kiwi, we're obsessed with housing and it has been volatile over the last few years.
The Kiwibank Economists look deep into the data - from house prices, to listings, and days to sell - to talk about the latest moves in the housing market across Aotearoa.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 10th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.
In this episode, the Economists are talking about the cooling Kiwi labour market. Weak economic activity following two years of recession is now resulting in job losses. They cover rising unemployment, where it's heading and what this means for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Plus, in line with the name of the show, they use their mystic future seeing skills to talk about where they see the Kiwi labour market heading.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 9th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.
In this episode they're talking about one of the biggest issues the world is facing right now. Climate change. More and more we’re seeing the effects of climate change in our daily life. Floods, cyclones, droughts, etc. They’re all becoming more frequent. So, what does this mean for the economy?
The team have the tough discussion on what they think we'll see across insurance, the housing market, and even interest rates in a world increasingly impacted by climate change.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank. -
The Kiwibank Economists are back for their eighth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.The RBNZ was among the first and most aggressive central banks in hiking interest rates, post-Covid. But in a recent speech, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr signalled that they can be “more incremental” on the way down. This week, our Economists give their take on how incremental is incremental.This week they also take a look at the growing divergence between the Aussie and Kiwi economies. The root cause? Monetary policy. The RBA and RBNZ took very different strategies post-Covid. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank
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The Kiwibank Economists are back for their seventh episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This week the team cover the cost of living crisis which has significantly impacted Kiwi households, particularly those with lower incomes. Everyday essentials like food and fuel have risen faster than incomes.
While these households struggle with tight budgets, recent trends indicate a shift, with pay rises running above inflation. Although inflation is gradually easing, and falling interest rates along with rising house prices are expected to bring relief in 2025, meaningful improvements are still anticipated to take time.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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The Kiwibank Economists are back for their sixth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.
This week the team cover the RBNZ’s October policy decision and what that means for our growth forecasts.
Later in the episode, Ross Weston, Head of Balance Sheet at Kiwibank joins the Economists to talk all about rates.
They chat about how financial markets reacted to the RBNZ's 50bp rate cut, and how the shape of the yield curve has evolved in recent monthsHosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/ Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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The Kiwibank Economists are back for their fifth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.This week the team are talking about the confidence of Kiwi business, and how it's evolving. Later in the episode, they're talking to Elliot Smith, Kiwibank's Chief Customer Officer – Business about what he's seeing, and what's happening in the broader economy. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/ Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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