Afleveringen
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In the last show of 2024, Benjmain, Amit, Ben Lilly, and Marconi Wight theorize what 2025 will bring after a historic year for Bitcoin and the entire industry.
Hint, hint: we think the best is yet to come. But first, what happened in the last two weeks?
Despite Bitcoin ETF outflows reaching almost a billion dollars in the last two weeks of 2024, Bitcoin is poised to outperform in 2025 based on historical trends, favorable market conditions, and potential government support.
Ethereum struggled in 2024 with low trading volume and unpredictable price movements. However, it might be best positioned for AI agent adoption due to its established infrastructure and active developer community, which is better suited for building and deploying sophisticated AI applications.
Solana, while showing signs of resilience despite declining activity on the Pump.fun platform, faces potential headwinds from the Grayscale Solana Trust. Unlocks from this trust could lead to substantial selling pressure, impacting price performance.
AI16Z has run lava hot for weeks but is a dangerous token to buy at this point. Ordinals (ORD), on the other hand, looks like a better trading opportunity because of a clear invalidation point and potential for growth.
Ethereum is attracting institutional investors, suggesting anticipation for growth fueled by staking yields and a clearer regulatory environment.
On-chain data analysis shows a substantial amount of ETH locked in illiquid forms like staking and lending, though this has recently declined. This dip is attributed to large stakeholders unstaking their ETH, potentially for end-of-year tax selling, rather than a loss of confidence in Ethereum. It is expected that this trend will reverse in January, bolstering Ethereum's fundamentals. The recent rise in Ethereum fees is also viewed as a potential bullish indicator.
Bitcoin flows have reversed significantly since the previous episode, with outflows exceeding inflows. This is attributed to institutional investors taking profits and reallocating capital before the new year. The Coinbase premium, which currently favors Binance, is seen as reflecting this selling pressure.
Despite these outflows, Bitcoin remains a bullish prospect for 2025 due to factors like increasing ETF adoption, a potentially favorable regulatory landscape under the new administration, and the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency market. Similar to Ethereum, Bitcoin fees are showing signs of recovery, potentially indicating positive price action soon.
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On Twitter @Marconiwight @TheWhale_hunter @rangesnipe @mrbenlilly
Disclosure Statement This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
The cryptocurrency market saw a 6% correction; this was necessary following weeks of price increases.
Excessively high funding rates, particularly those observed as Bitcoin neared $100,000, played a role in the correction. Despite the significance of the correction, it was considered healthy.
Significant inflows into both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs highlight growing institutional demand. Potential factors driving this demand include the carry trade and a possible supply shock spurred by increased institutional buying.
Importantly, Dogecoin's price movements have exhibited a consistent pattern since the U.S. election.
This pattern suggests that Dogecoin's price may be front-running the broader market. While a definitive correlation cannot be proven, Dogecoin's continued strong performance suggests a positive market outlook.
J-AI had a splendid week 1.
JAI garnered positive user feedback for its ease of use and ability to identify strong trading opportunities, especially within the Solana and Ethereum ecosystems.
Try J-AI today (no fee but minimum balances suggested for performance: https://bit.ly/Try_JAI_Onchain_Pod
The market sell-off offered good trade setups for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin while some coins, like AAVE, are still too hot for a good R:R.
Ben Lilly’s flow report analyzed trends across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.
For Bitcoin, ETF flows have been a major driver of demand for Bitcoin and the Coinbase premium has decreased recently, suggesting a possible slowdown in those flows.
For Ethereum, upcoming upgrades might add another roadblock to ETH’s price as the fee market expands beyond demand. On the positive side, Base continues to add strong demand to Ethereum and Ethena’s growth might create a supply shock in the coming month.
Solana's flow dynamics reveal a decline in activity on the Pump.Fun platform and its subsequent impact on fees and MEV yields. Solana's future will likely depend on the emergence of a new demand driver to take the place of the waning meme coin narrative.
Chapters
(00:00:00) Bitcoin Correction: Bull or Bear?
(00:06:50) ETF Inflows & Supply Shock
(00:17:47) JAI's First Week & User Feedback
(00:32:47) JAI's Valuation & Future Potential
(00:36:19) Bitcoin Trade Setup & Analysis
(00:49:58) Solana Trade Setup & Analysis
(00:52:48) Doge Trade Setup & Analysis
(00:59:35) Flow Report: Bitcoin Overview
(01:15:35) Flow Report: Ethereum Overview
(01:45:53) Flow Report: Solana Overview
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter
@Marconiwight
@TheWhale_hunter
@rangesnipe
@mrbenlilly
Disclosure Statement This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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XC is back on Podcasts!!!
On the December 3 2024 Trading Pit, Benjamin the Whale Hunter, and Amit the Range Sniper analyze price movements for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, offering trading insights and actionable setups.
The hosts discuss the recent surge in XRP and other "Dino coins," attributing it to rotation from Bitcoin and renewed interest in familiar tokens on mainstream platforms. They also debate the potential of meme coins versus AI agents, highlighting the role of leverage and institutional interest in the current market.
J-AI On-Chain Product Launch
Sign up today!!! https://bit.ly/Try_JAI_Onchain_Pod
The launch of J-AI On-Chain, a decentralized, self-custodial trading platform that allows users to connect their own wallets and deploy trading strategies developed by J-AI, a sophisticated AI trading system. This solution eliminates the risks associated with centralized exchanges, like those experienced with FTX and Mt. Gox, where users’ funds are held by a third party.
J-AI On-Chain initially launches with three strategies across three different blockchains:
Ethereum and Solana Micro-Cap Strategy: This strategy focuses on identifying and capitalizing on trading opportunities in the meme coin ecosystem. It’s now available on both Solana and Ethereum.
Bitcoin Strategy: Available on Base, this strategy aims to buy Bitcoin at opportune moments (“buy the dip”) and take profits as the price rises. Backtesting suggests that this strategy has outperformed a simple “buy and hold” approach during bear markets, while also minimizing drawdowns.
J-AI On-Chain is differentiated from other on-chain trading solutions in several key ways:
Decentralized Wallet Architecture: Rather than using a vault structure, where all user funds are pooled together, J-AI On-Chain uses a decentralized wallet architecture where each user controls their own funds, minimizing the risk of a single point of failure and potential losses due to the actions of other users.
Sophisticated AI Trading Engine: J-AI uses trillions of data points, including information about liquidity pools, holders, top traders, and other on-chain metrics, to identify trading opportunities. This is in contrast to AI agents that rely heavily on social sentiment data, which can be easily manipulated.
Focus on Trading: J-AI is specifically designed for crypto trading. Unlike general-purpose AI agents being developed by companies like AIX, BTC, or AI16Z, J-AI is solely focused on providing users with the best possible trading experience.
Ease of Use: J-AI On-Chain is designed to be easy to use. Users can connect their wallets and deploy trading strategies with just three clicks.
The minimum investment for J-AI On-Chain is flexible, but a higher balance allows the algorithms to perform more effectively. The platform does not charge any subscription fees. Instead, a small percentage is taken from each trade, and the team has worked to optimize these fees to be lower than those on decentralized exchanges like Uniswap.
Ben Lilly returns to the show with a deep exploration of the state of the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana networks.
On Bitcoin, Ben Lilly analyzes network fees and highlights the significant impact of ETF inflows on network activity. However, he raises concerns about the sustainability of this growth, citing the lack of compelling DeFi applications and the reliance on points programs to attract capital.
Turning to Solana, Ben Lilly notes a decline in activity following the peak of the meme coin frenzy driven by Pumped Out Fund. He suggests that Solana needs new catalysts beyond the gambling arena to drive sustainable growth.
Finally, Lilly examines Ethereum's performance, pointing to the increasing activity on Layer 2s like Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism as a positive sign. He observes that this activity is starting to translate into increased fees on the mainnet, suggesting a potential turning point for Ethereum's fee dynamics. Lilly concludes with a call for the development of robust, utility-driven applications on all three networks to ensure their long-term success.
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter
@Marconiwight
@TheWhale_hunter
@rangesnipe
@mrbenlilly
Disclosure Statement This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
Only 36 days to the Bitcoin Halving and JJ walks through his approach for playing it like a pro (if you own spot or don't).
👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
But that's not the only topic catching fire this week.
Crypto credit markets are the life blood of market makers keeping prices elevated or depressed. While some look at market depth to suggest credit has returned, the answer is more complicated and reflects a possible resilience that hasn't existed in crypto before. This could lead to a healthier rise over time.
The markets continue to offer warning signs while ETF demand continues with rampant inflows. While historically the market has experienced a strong decline prior to Bitcoin's Halving, the introduction of ETF's means this time may rhyme but it is in fact different.
But that doesn't mean it's bull time forever.
The DXY continues to suggest uncertainty in the market. Whether it spikes up or down from here is unclear. But macro signals, such as higher inflation prints and a jobless numbers under expectations, continue to offer a mixed market view.
Something to keep an eye on.
The Ethereum Duncan upgrade and the market responded early on with a sell off. While the reduction in fees might be big news for ETH maxis, the market doesn't seem all that impressed. But that doesn't mean there aren't positions to be had.
Have a listen and let us know what you think.
Chapters:
00:00:00 Rapid Fire
00:03:27 The Bitcoin Halving Trade
00:07:04 Crypto Credit Markets Returning
00:11:53 Rules Changing the Lending Market
00:14:40 Market Breakdown
00:16:43 TradFI is Suppressing Bitcoin Price
00:27:49 DXY and Possible Liquidity Drain
00:32:30 BitFinex Selling - Wat Mean?
00:35:43 Eth Duncan Upgrade + Coin Screener
00:43:17 Options Positioning and Expensive Insurance
00:48:00 Wat Meme Coin Mania Means
👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
Contact Marconi for Sponsorships: [email protected]
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
Ethereum is building up steam for a massive supply shock brought by staking, the likely ETF, and factors mainstream aren't even discussing. In this episode, find out Why the Ethereum ETF Will Make Bitcoin Returns Look Small as the ETH's supply shock hits the markets.
👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
Ethereum's narrative as "Ultra Sound Money" isn't new. But what if the puzzle that kicks this narrative into action is just now underway?
On this episode of The Trading Pit, we unpack the supply and demand dynamics pushing ETH towards a supply shock that will cause price to explode. And on a risk adjusted basis, ETH might continue to be king kong of the jungle.
Now is the time to prepare. But how about the rest of the rest of the market?
After a weekend of Alt runs (#worldcoin , #ronin anyone?), the market is experiencing a bit of a sale off. Bitcoin spot continues to show consolidation as ETF flows have surprised everyone by their continued strength.
Perpetuals and Options show large players are positioned for higher volatility without guessing which direction it might go (hint, hint the better play is to follow the trade, not your hopes and wishes).
👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
DXY and rates aren't giving concrete signals at the moment and it continues to be a game of sitting on your hands. But that hasn't stopped the market from going down the risk curve. In the last week, mid-cap alts in the AI, Gaming and meme sectors have had strong runs. But don't just ape in. The Sharpe / Sortino ratios suggest caution as price runs ahead of demand.
Now is the time to wait for an indication of where the market heads. Don't front run it.
Don't apply leverage to a guess.
Chapters
00:00:00 ETH's Ready to Run
00:03:40 Signs of ETH's Coming Supply Shock
00:05:50 Market Update: Expect Consolidation
00:07:34 Surprising Bitcoin ETF Flows
00:16:30 The Recent Alt Rally
00:19:20 Risk Adjusted Returns on Alt Coins
00:23:28 Pros Don't Care if BTC hits 70K by June
00:27:57 DXY and the Liquidity Armageddon
00:35:25 Positioning in This Market
00:42:50 Options vs Perpetuals
Contact Marconi for Sponsorships:[email protected]
👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
Bitcoin sores above $52K and Wall Street ETF's are struggling to get their hands on #BTC because no one wants to sell Bitcoin, even at these prices. When will that change?
And when will Retail return.
👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
Despite retail crypto giants like Robinhood and Coinbase experience revenue growth, retail participation remains muted. Investors burned by scams and pump and dump ponzis need a higher price to reignite the flames of speculation. And it's unclear if $50K or Bitcoin passing the previous ATH is what will shift the market.
But the battle hardened retail still here aren't selling or taking profits.
In fact, the only people looking to sell are Genesis to pay off debts. But even $1.3 B in supply is no match for the hungry, hungry ETF hippos. If the existing pace continues, they will buy up that supply in a week or so. ETF's buy at any price. It's a one way machine - buy, buy, buy.
And there is no indication that they are slowing down. None.
And until the ETF Options market opens up (still in pending approval), expect more action to the upside.
Back to Bitcoin.
Price action remains bullish. And despite Bitcoin climbing into the RSI Red Zone, there are few signs this momentum will fade. And options suggest there is more upside to be found, with calls being sold for $60K and higher.
Will we see vol sellers get burned? Time will tell.
Remember, there is no Bitcoin. No one is selling (Bitcoin Supply Shock?). And this is creating supply shock that propels prices higher. ETF's will struggle to get their hands on more Bitcoin as the shock intensities.
Don't be fooled by perpetual liquidations of shorts. While retail use these products for outsized gains, sophisticated traders are using them to run a cash and carry trade, hedging the downside risk. Traders can still be profitable with their shorts getting stopped out.
Returning to TradFi markets, DXY remains elevated but the risk seems low of a near-term market shakeout. Don't sleep on what the dollar might mean for a sell-off. Importantly, it's also a risk-on sign if it falls below $100.
But the DXY isn't the only detail to watch on TradFI.
New guidance allows new dealers to participate in treasury auctions, expanding the number of buyers. And demand for treasuries remains strong. Now the market is dropping expectations for rate hikes and adjusting to "higher for longer". Or at least "elevated for a while".
That doesn't mean there aren't opportunities. The CoinCall Options Trade continues to perform and there is a liquidity play that needs to be on the radar of all sophisticated traders.
Listen up.
Chapters:
00:00:00 - At What Price Does Retail Return?
00:05:50 - Court Clears Sale of $1.3 B GBTC
00:08:22 - When Will ETF Volume Trail Off
00:12:42 - Bitcoin Spot, Perps, and Options All Bullish
00:20:02 - No One is Selling Until This Happens
00:28:00 - Bitcoin Perpetuals Hedging the Downside
00:31:30 - DXY, Yields and More
00:43:25 - The CoinCall Options Trade
00:47:07 - The Liquidity End Game Play
Contact Marconi for Sponsorships: [email protected]
👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew ---
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
Bitcoin breaks above $50K for the first time since 2022 and suddenly the market is betting on Bitcoin at $70K by June 2024. Should YOU bet on it? (From the Trading Pit Live Stream Recorded on 2/13)
👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
In the last few days, Bitcoin shot above $50K and the market updated their expectations, with OTM calls being purchased all the way to $70K, expiring in June. If these positions are unhedged and the market catapults to those levels, expect ATH very, very soon.
But that's a big if...
Fortunately, ETF demand is stronger than anyone anticipated, with all dips turning into buy opportunities. And until ETF volume dies down, don't expect a local top for Bitcoin.
But don't forge to check your macro stats.
Today, the CPI print came in hotter than expected, forcing many to rethink how quickly the fed can pivot from "higher for longer". And this might just lead to a strong dollar. Already above $104, a hot CPI print and longer tight policy could squeeze the dollar even higher, sucking liquidity out of risk assets, like Bitcoin.
For now the likelihood is low. But you need to keep an eye on it.
Back to Bitcoin.
The spot market continues to show fresh inflow buying up Bitcoin while the perpetuals market suggest the carry trade is in full effect (buying spot and hedging with short futures). Now is a challenging time to enter new trades, unless you want to try Options (hint, hint, the CoinCall Degen trade is a winner).
Finally, Ethereum remains the beta to Bitcoin. What's the beta to Ethereum? Every coin on the market that isn't Ethereum. And speculators continue to double down on higher risk assets, expecting a 10x or more during this bear cycle.
Will they be wrong? Stay tuned and find out.
Contact Marconi for Sponsorships: [email protected]
👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew ---
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF IBIT just secured the Top 5 spot for inflows in 2024. Believe us, you're not bullish enough Anon. (NOTE: there were some audio issues at the beginning of the recording. We are working to resolve these for future shows). (from the Live Trading Pit episode recorded 2/8/24)
👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
the story...
Options suggest upcoming volatility (up only???)
Spot is being vacuumed up hungry whales
Futures are being sold for hedging long positions
And that's just Bitcoin.
In this discussion, we unpack the options activity preparing for volatility as the ETH ETF decision approaches and how sophisticated traders will approach it (ETHE, long options contracts, beta plays). TL:DW, beta plays are interesting but the best play might just be using pristine collateral (ETH) to trade perps to juice your returns.
Benjamin still expects a liquidity event. But he's had to admit, now is the time to "be long until your wrong".
Chapters:
00:00:00 WOW - Bitcoin ETF Top 5 ETF
00:04:09 ETH ETF COMING May 2024
00:10:56 Learn to Trade Options
00:13:26 Bitcoin: All Signs are Bullish
00:23:35 DXY Is a Risk (But Don't Run Just Yet)
00:29:01 Should You Buy ETH Beta for the ETF Launch?
00:33:24 Max out Your Beta
00:36:05 Sophisticated Portfolio Construction
Contact Marconi for Sponsorships: [email protected]
👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios
https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew ---
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
On the latest episode of The Trading Pit, The Solana Network Goes Down (Again) and were noticing all the red flags buyers need to notice before buying the dip.
But first, Solana isn't the only news event.
👉Enjoy the show and looking for ways to support it? Consider trading on CoinCall and use the link here to open an account. https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
Genesis, the former crypto lender, is looking to offload $1.6 Billion in GBTC ETF shares, adding more sell pressure. When will GBTC finally stabilize it's flows?
Markets continue to take the slow walk towards bull town, with spot, perpetuals, and options all suggesting range trading for the near-term. Volatility is being suppressed like a beach ball under water, and market makers are happy with the carry trade to squeeze out additional yield in a slow market.
But markets don't stay quiet for long. And king kong dollar looks ready to rekt a quiet market. As DXY closes above $104, risk increases of a dollar run that would cause a risk-off tsunami through bitcoin and the rest of the crypto markets. And with headline jobs and growth numbers looking iron man strong, the Fed has little reason to cut rates and inject fresh liquidity. Will the liquidity armageddon finally arrive?
Back to Solana.
Even in bear market congestion, the Solana network goes down. Is Solana ready for the big time if it's can't handle these volumes? But that's not the real concern. A price chart primed for capitulation and unresolved questions about supply are more reasons to be cautious on this trade. It's anything but a sure bet.
Finally, the Degen Trade of the week is finally in the red. It should have been closed out a week ago. But it's invaluable learning, right? ("ain't no gains without some pains").
Is it too early to start trading the Halving?
👉Enjoy the show and looking for ways to support it? Consider trading on CoinCall and use the link here to open an account. https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
Chapters:
00:00:00 Genesis Prepares to Dump $1.6 Billion GBTC
00:02:51 Bitcoin Continues to Range as Spot, Perpetuals Weak
00:07:55 Patience, the Market Sell Off is Coming
00:10:47 Bitcoin Vol Remains Low (No Impulse Yet)
00:15:00 Options Markets Signal Indifference
00:18:59 DXY Crosses $104 But No Sell Off. Yet.
00:22:01 Rates Following DXY
00:28:37 How Fed and Treasury Respond to Election Year
00:33:37 Solana Losing Momentum As Network Fails
00:35:30 Don't Rush to Buy the Solana Dip
00:42:35 Trading Ideas
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter
@Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
It's time to Front Run the Ethereum ETF BEFORE options, perpetuals, and spot get too expensive for your champagne taste on a coca-cola budget. And in this video, we break down two ways to play it.
👉Enjoy the show and looking for ways to support it? Consider trading on CoinCall and use the link here to open an account. https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
But first the market.
On February 1, 2024 episode The Trading Pit, all signs point to consolidation. After the Fed announced no new rate hikes, the market is quieter than a national library on Christmas. New spot buyers haven't entered the market. ETF Flows appear to be a giant rotation, and the Options market is pricing in chop for months out. And Volatility is on stuck on snooze.
TradFi isn't much better.
After expecting fireworks on the month end, the DXY remains in range with no convincing impulse up or down. and rate markets signal yawn and sleepy time. But it's time will come. A breaks the 50 RSI or a rise above $104 means fireworks.
But the boooooooring market is here for Ethereum and the alt market too (but this is a good thing, more on that later). Some coins are getting bid. But liquidity is razor thin and your kinda sizable bid won't get filled. It's the Liquidity Tourist season seeking yield and catching the latest craze.
Not sustainable.
Speaking of things that won't last forever, have you see the ETH/BTC chart? After being declared dead, #eth roared back and proved that it's earned it's space on the cap table. But importantly, as people seek the final capitulation bottom on this pair (hint, it might still be lower. Or not.), the Big Trade is on the horizon.
So lean in, caffeine it up, and Pay Attention.
ETH is primed for lift off by the end of this year. And because everyone is seeking higher yields on it's competitors (#sol comes to mind), ETH is becoming the lonely trade. And that makes it cheap. You can still buy ETHE at ~20% discount to the real thing. ETH options on #CoinCall are bargain basement prices. Pick up a few of those for pennies and bob's your uncle (not investment advice).
TL:DL? The market's boring. TradFi is boring. And boring is the best time to find a mis-priced asset before it rockets to the moon.
So listen up.
Chapters.
00:00:00 Pre-Market: Boring Bitcoin
00:11:48 Grayscale and ETF Volumes Suggest Rotation
00:15:10 The Market Needs an External Impulse
00:20:00 DXY Next Move After the FOMC
00:29:01 The CoinCall Degen Trade
00:32:35 The ETH/BTC Break Point
00:41:10 Day Trade Screener
00:45:10 ETH Options Market
00:49:52 Time to Front Run the ETH ETF
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter
@Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
The Biggest Bitcoin Trade of the Year (maybe the best since 2020) is right around the corner as multiple market factors converge. Learn how to see the setup and play it like a sophisticated trader.
👉Enjoy the show and looking for ways to support it? Consider trading on CoinCall and use the link here to open an account. https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
On January 30 episode of the Trading Pit, #Bitcoin is once again trading above $40K as the Grayscale sell pressure slows. While Bitcoin continues to range, the market is coiling for a massive move as implied volatility is suppressed, perpetuals and options suggest sidelined traders, and all eyes shift to the Bitcoin Halving in April, 2024.
But signs of turbulence are all around.
TradFi investors are investing in risky yield products to juice returns, assuming the calm #VIX will remain calm. But how long can "up only" last?
The fed plans to wind down the Reverse Repo facility, cutting down a key source of liquidity. Meanwhile, TradFi options traders are short volatility. If the DXY goes "boom", their portfolios may burst. Listen in to hear how the Trade of the Year Setup will come to pass and how to play it.
Chapters:
00:00:00 Why Bitcoin Jumped to $44K
00:04:50 Engineered Liquidity and Bear Movements
00:13:01 Someone is Suppressing Crypto Volatility
00:17:50 Market Open
00:20:40 DXY + $52K Bitcoin
00:24:45 Liquidity Armageddon
00:29:36 How Dangerous is Volatility Right Now (Vega Short)?
00:36:49 Greedy Yield Chasers
00:43:26 How's The CoinCall Trade Performing?
00:47:24 How to Play the Trade of the Year
01:00:33 Using Puts as Insurance
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
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On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
The bears keep Bitcoin under $40K as the Fed's New Plan Will Crash Bitcoin in 2024. Learn the best way to position for this once a year trade opportunity.
👉Enjoy the show and looking for ways to support it? Consider trading on CoinCall and use the link here to open an account. https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
On January 25th episode of The Trading Pit, Bitcoin spot bounced off the 100 SMA, providing a near term relief but momentum continues to push for more downside. Volatility indicators signal a violent move is on the horizon although traders aren't yet positioning perpetuals or options to hedge - a worrying sign.
While it's too early to call the performance of the Bitcoin ETF's, it's clear market flows are about to change, demanding a new analysis of the markets. But that's not traders top priority.
TradFi markets are poised to break if the Fed's New Plan is put into action that will drain the REPO and accelerate quantitative tightening. "Liquidity Armageddon" will drain support across the board, likely first noticed in the DXY and rates markets. #bitcoin and the crypto markets can't escape this fate.
Chapters:
00:00:00 Bear Market Ranges
00:03:10 DXY over $104 is RISK OFF
00:04:40 True Interest Signals Market Maturity
00:08:20 OI Doesn't Signals a Neutral Stance
00:12:30 Someone's Suppressing Volatility
00:19:29 Market Open: Muted Price Action
00:21:01 MARA, COIN, and Bitcoin Beta Stocks Range
00:25:46 BlackRock IBIT + Bitcoin ETF Performance 00:34:01 Feds New Plan Could Break Bitcoin Market
00:39:40 Accurate Signs Markets are Breaking
00:44:29 Fed's Plan to Tackle DXY Shortage
00:47:33 Will RRP Drain Before The Halving?
00:52:20 Degen Trade Update
00:54:49 How to Position for the Liquidity Armageddon
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
Even former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes is shorting the market - says he's getting out of Bitcoin as spot, perpetuals and options point to more consolidation for #bitcoin below $40K.
👉Enjoy the show and looking for ways to support it? Consider trading on CoinCall and use the link here to open an account. https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
There are no reasons to see a v-shaped bullish reversal anytime soon: Bitcoin is under its year to date price, Grayscale continues to offload 10 - 15K of BTC each day, the Coinbase Premium remains elevated, and there are few signs that fresh demand has entered from TradFI.
Add to that, altcoins, including #ETH and #SOL, are just starting to correct. If the #DXY rises above $103, prepare for more nasty sell off.
The best time to take profit was 2 weeks ago. Now is the time to wait for a better entry (the 100 or 200 SMA).
Chapters:
00:00:00 Bears Fighting the BTC Plunge Protection Team
00:06:59 Still Waiting for the BTC Liquidation Event
00:12:01 Is ETF Rotation Driving the Sell-Off?
00:16:47 Coinbase Premium: Signaling a Sell-Off
00:19:45 Options Hedging Under $40K
00:23:10 Whales Still Accumulating
00:24:30 How Long Will the Sell Off Last?
00:30:15 Do the CME Gaps Signal Alpha?
00:32:40 DXY Remains a Risk for the Market
00:39:30 Altcoins and ETH Bid Zone Approaching
00:43:30 Sophisticated Traders ARE IN the Market
00:47:30 Why Arthur Hayes Got Out (for now)
00:49:01 Trade Ideas
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter
@Marconiwight
@MrBenLilly
@JlabsJanitor
@horushughes
@Kodi_thekid
@benjamin_skew
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
The Bitcoin Hangover continues as #Grayscale Sells $3 Billion Bitcoin for their ETF and the market adjusts to new sale pressure. Is this game over for BTC and the market in January? Will ETH continue to outperform BTC?
👉Enjoy the show and looking for ways to support it? Consider trading on CoinCall and use the link here to open an account. https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs
On the January 19 2024 live recording of the Trading Pit, JJ and Ben Lilly analyze the Spot, Perpetuals and Options to find out if the momentum for Bitcoin is truly gone. Along the way they discuss the new market laws of supply and demand, how to analyze Grayscale's record selling, and a possible TradFI liquidity unlock in Q1.
Now is the time to prepare to buy the dip.
The Trading Pit is a trader focused show, where your favorite analysts use public and proprietary metrics to share deep insights into how the crypto market (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cryptos) is operating and where it's headed next. No emotions, just logic and data.
Chapters:
00:00:00 Spot, Perps and Options Signal Lost Momentum
00:11:38 Grayscale Supply and Demand
00:27:00 The DXY
00:48:22 Possible Trades (MSTR, BTC Calls)
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Follow the team:xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood Espresso
Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
On this episode of The Trading Pit: the Ledger hack, the BTC consolidation zone, when $30K, the ETH trade that is like picking up free money, and much more.
The Trading Pit is a trader focused show, where your favorite analysts use public and proprietary metrics to share deep insights into how the crypto market (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cryptos) is operating and where it's headed next.
No emotions, just logic, intuition and data.
Like and subscribe so you never miss an insight.
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter
@Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
The Trading Pit is a trader focused show, where your favorite analysts use public and proprietary metrics to share deep insights into how the crypto market (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cryptos) is operating and where it's headed next.
No emotions, just logic, intuition and data.
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter
@Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
Welcome to The Trading Pit, a trader focused show, where your favorite analysts use public and proprietary metrics to unpack the mysteries of the market, determine what’s likely to happen next, and present possible trade ideas.
In this episode, Bitcoin broke above $40K but the data suggests it will consolidate in the coming weeks and months. No need to rush into buying - you can wait for a pull back and a better entry.
Show Summary:
* #Bitcoin breakout driven by institutional interest
* Some additional room to run but losing steam from spot buying
* Expect some consolidation, with a likely pull back before end of year
* ETH/BTC is a potential trade, need to see where BTC tops out
Episode Chapters:
00:00:00 Intro
00:00:35 Mood of the Market: Profit Taking and Consolidation
00:02:00 Short Liquidations Driving Price (plus Some Spot)
00:03:30 Options Open Interest - Selling $40K and Buying $45K
00:05:23 Liquidation Pools Signal a Cool Off and Profit Taking
00:07:25 Market Screener: Find Day Trade Opportunities
00:10:35 Whale Wallets Signal Institutional Buying for 2023
00:14:45 Retail is Unsure How to Play the Market
00:17:00 CME Futures Will Signal the End of the Rally
00:17:46 DXY Could Go Lower, More Fuel for BTC Pump
00:20:15 When's The 30% Pullback?
00:26:21 The Possible ETH/BTC Trade
00:29:07 The ETHE Trade
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
🚀 Discover how to effectively trade the four phases of the crypto market like a pro in our latest episode, "5 CRYPTO TRADES decoded in secret chart by Economist."
In this episode, you'll gain a comprehensive lesson in taking calculated risks and safeguarding your investments over the coming phases of the crypto market (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins, Meme Coins).
🔍 Join Ben Lilly, a seasoned economist with a decade of experience in the crypto industry, as he demystifies the crypto market's hidden gems. Ben is a managing partner at jlabs digital, a pioneering firm specializing in research, quant trading, and autonomous trading solutions. His insights are your ticket to mastering crypto trading.
📈 The video unveils the 5 crucial phases of crypto trading:
* The Bitcoin Milkshake Phase: Learn to identify the earliest phase when the market comes to life. Discover how bitcoin's market dominance and the halving event play key roles in this phase.
* The Flippening: Understand how Ethereum and other tokens outpace Bitcoin, and why this phase can lead to significant gains.
* The Narrative Phase: Dive into a world of revolutionary projects and paradigm shifts. Explore why this phase is characterized by rapid growth and potential pitfalls.
* The Memecoin Phase: Witness how smaller tokens can turn into gold mines, but also come with increased speed and risk. Learn about tokens like doge, shib, and more.
* The Final Phase: Discover the importance of hedging and stability as you navigate the crypto market's wild journey.
Don't miss out on this opportunity to decode the secrets hidden within the crypto market's chart. Subscribe now and embark on your journey to crypto trading success! 💰 #cryptotrading #bitcoin #ethereum #cryptoinvesting
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Hit the subscribe buttons to stay current on these data trends and to be notified when we (finally) go live on video.
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On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
In part 2 of 2, we discuss 4 trades to max your Bitcoin profits AFTER the Bitcoin ETF is approved. -and why your biggest profit isn't likely until 2025. So If you want to make the 10x gains, you need to HODL and stay in the market.
Today's Topics
* How the #bitcoinetf announcement will impact markets.
* What happens to the #ETH / #BTC Trade AFTER the ETF.
* Taking profit on the ETF announcement.
* How the #bitcoinhalving and ETF may boost the market together.
* Will it be dip buying season right after the HALVING?
* Moving in and out of #altcoins for more gains.
* Why 2025 is when most of the gains happen.
* How the #Bitcoin narrative will likely change in 2024 and beyond (2026 and beyond looks HUGE).
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Hit the subscribe buttons to stay current on these data trends and to be notified when we (finally) go live on video.
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
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On Twitter
@Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com -
In part 1 of 2, learn 4 strategies to start BEFORE the ETF is approved and market mania takes hold - to 10x your Bitcoin gains (we share what to do during approval and after in Part 2).
Today's Topics:
* 90% chance of #bitcoinetf - how do you START positioning yourself to 10x your gains from this near certain event?
* Why price mania (maybe) isn't priced in.
* Buying the #bitcoinetf Rumor, Sell the Event.
* #BTC Mining Stocks - Opportunity or a Cash wasteland?
* What Layer 1 Altcoin looks like #ethereum in 2017
* Buy the dip season and creating a stack (if you're all in cash)
👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey
Hit the subscribe buttons to stay current on these data trends and to be notified when we (finally) go live on video.
Follow the team:
xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood
Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew
On Twitter
@Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @horushughes @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew
Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com - Laat meer zien
