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Udtrykket i demonstranternes øjne veksler mellem det udslukte, vreden - og håbet! I Georgiens hovedstad, Tbilisi, er demonstranter og journalister igen blevet banket af politiet! Der er et fundamentalt slagsmål i gang i Georgien mellem kræfter, der støtter Ruslands præsident Putin, og de, der søger Vesten. Lige nu ser det ud som om Putin vinder i Georgien! Men kampen fortsætter i Moldova og i Kaukasus. I Centralasien trækker de sig lidt efter lidt fra Moskva - mens Putin overvejer nye skridt i genrejsningen af det russiske imperium. Det er Verden ifølge Gram!
Gæster: Louise Brodthagen Jensen, Claus Mathiesen og Charlotte Flindt Petersen.
Vært: Steffen Gram. -
Sabotage under the Baltic, a grudging apology, a possible attack on a Russian cargo ship, firebombing ATMs, energy blackmail in Moldova... what connects them beyond a sense that, having changed his rules of engagement abroad in 2024, Putin may find this coming to bite him in 2025. Either way, it looks like the coming year will be a bumpy one, to say the least.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
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Outright prediction may be a mug's game, but what are some of the people and processes I will be watching in 2025?
For those who get lost in the flow, they are:
PERSONALIA· Elvira Nabiullina
· Ramzan Kadyrov
· Alexander Khinshtein
· Alexei Dyumin
· Sergei Naryshkin
· Nikolai Patrushev
· (Not Mikhail Mishustin/Anton Vaino)
INSTITS
· Security Council
· FSB
· State Council
PROCESSES
· ‘Covert federalisation’
· Lateral alliances
· End of party pseudo-politics?
· Rise of SVO generation?
· Labour shortage
· Deviancy
POLICIES
· Shadow War
· Africa/North Africa
· India
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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Hvad gør krig ved mennesker? Hvordan indretter man sit liv og sin hverdag med daglige angreb?
Den ukrainske filminstruktør Iryna Tsilyk gør status over året fra sit hjem i Kyiv.
Lyt til flere artikler fra Weekendavisen her.
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We tend to focus on the big challenges facing Russia: war, sanctions, the struggle of authoritarianism vs the remnants of civil society. Maybe it is time to look at some of the less often discussed problems that nonetheless characterise the emerging Russian 'polycrisis': demographics, the mephedrone epidemic, and crumbling transport infrastructure: sex, drugs and rocky roads.
The OSW report on demographics I mentioned is here; the Global Initiative report on drugs is here.
My IWM podcast on Syria with Misha Glenny and Eva Konzett is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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I Ukraine taler Zelenskyj-regeringen om overlevelse! I Moskva strammer Putin diktaturet - og skærper krigen i Ukraine! I USA rykker Trump ind i Det hvide Hus - og skaber ny global usikkerhed. I Tyskland er regeringen kollapset og økonomien dykker! I Frankrig kæmper Macron for mere end sit eftermæle! I Syrien skaber Assad-regimets kollaps endelig en smule lys i Horisonten - men ingen ved, hvad der nu sker. Midt i det univers står en dansk udenrigsminister - bekymret for vores liberale demokrati, bekymret for sammenholdet bag Ukraine, bekymret for - ja, for det meste af, hvad han ser.
Gæst: Lars Løkke Rasmussen.
Vært: Steffen Gram. -
Sami Kleit tør ikke gå med sin kæreste i hånden på Nørrebro i København. Og han er ikke den eneste homoseksuelle mand, som frygter homofobiske tilråb fra især muslimer.
Men det er et problem, som Copenhagen Pride helt overser, mener Kleit, som selv har muslimsk baggrund:
»Fordi man har så stærkt et fokus på intersektionalitet, så er der den her konstante frygt for at udtale sig islamofobisk,« siger han.
»Jeg savner fra Priden, at de tør sige det, som det er: at der er en masse muslimer i Danmark, der er homofober.«
Journalist Sami Kleit er dagens gæst i Avistid med Nikolaj Arve.
Programmet er tilrettelagt og produceret af Marie Louise Vesthardt og Birgit Nissen Pedersen. Podcasten blev sendt første gang d.15. august.
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What can one learn from Putin's 4½-hour-long end of year press conference? Essentially, his message to his people is that - however they might feel - everything is fine and they should stay the course. Meanwhile, over Ukraine if anything his line may be hardening: he may talk of 'compromise', but is trying to define the terms of any future peace. Anyway, I listened to 4½ hours, and offer you only one hour...
The article by Joshua Huminski I mentioned is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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So Bashar al-Assad's blood-drenched regime has fallen. Hurrah. But what now for Russia? Is this a terrible geopolitical defeat, or actually something that perversely frees it from a commitment made in 2015, yet less relevant today? What are the likely knock-on effects for Russia's position in the Mediterranean and Africa? The hottest of hot takes.
That Q&A with Sam Heller and Aron Lund is at:https://tcf.org/content/commentary/syrias-civil-war-has-roared-back-how-far-can-the-rebels-go/
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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I over 100 år har Socialdemokratiet haft overborgmesterposten i København. Nu er det måske snart slut. Socialdemokratiet står til at få blot 12 procent af stemmerne ifølge en meningsmåling, og Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil har selv proklameret, at der skal et mirakel til, for at hun kan vinde kommunalvalget til november.
»Socialdemokratiet er havnet mellem de meget rige københavnere og de meget røde københavnere,« siger Hans Mortensen: »Problemet er, at Socialdemokratiet nok bare har været i færd med at tabe København i mange årtier.«
Martin Krasnik er vært i Avistid med de politiske journalister Arne Hardis og Hans Mortensen. Programmet er produceret og tilrettelagt af Birgit Nissen Pedersen.
Mangler De en julegave? Giv et abonnement på Weekendavisen: www.weekendavisen.dk/gave
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President Zelensky's suggestion that military attempts to retake the occupied territories could be abandoned in return for rapid NATO membership for Ukraine does mark a change in tack. What is driving this political-diplomatic adaptation?
Christopher Lawrence, The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline, 2023)Mick Ryan, The War for Ukraine. Strategy and adaptation under fire (Naval Institute Press, 2024)Stephanie Baker, Punishing Putin. Inside the global economic war to bring down Russia (Simon & Schuster, 2024)Charles Hecker, Zero Sum. The arc of international business in Russia (Hurst, 2024)
And, in the second half, I draw on four books that speak in different ways to how Russia has managed (and sometimes failed) to adapt to the military and economic struggle, to bring them to this position.
The books are:The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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Regeringen er kommet på en vanskelig diplomatisk opgave. På en og samme tid forsøger den at bakke op om Den Internationale Straffedomstol, ICC, uden klart at sige, at man bakker op om arrestationen af Israels premierminister.
»Statsministeren vil to ting på en gang, som ikke er forenelige. Hun vil anerkende domstolens ret til at handle, og hun vil forhindre, at man griber til en anholdelse af Netanyahu, hvis han skulle være så dum at købe sine kager i København,« vurderer Arne Hardis og suppleres af Hans Mortensen: »Al udenrigspolitik handler om at orientere sig mod det nye USA.«
Martin Krasnik er vært og programmet er produceret og tilrettelagt af Birgit Nissen Pedersen.
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Schrödinger's Defence Minister, at once busy and visible yet strangely inconsequential and intangible, what can one make of Andrei Belousov, his rise and his chances of achieving anything in his current role?
The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotage
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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'Strategic culture' means the underlying cultural assumptions about threats and options that informs a nation's specific strategic choices, and Russia's has been strikingly continuous for centuries. As I discuss, it reflects the underlying circumstances and challenges of the country, and while not a straightjacket -- Gorbachev and Brezhnev were products of the same culture -- it helps explain Putin's own decisions.
The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotage
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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I USA bliver Trump præsident - og amerikanerne viser tegn på træthed med krigen i Ukraine. I Berlin ringer Scholz til Putin - for første gang i to år. Biden giver Ukraine lov til at bruge langtrækkende missiler. Men på G20-topmødet falder støtten til Ukraine og Vesten, og i Moskva arbejder Putin på, at det vestlige sammenhold bag Ukraine kollapser. Og ukrainerne er gået ind i den tredje vinter i krigen mod Rusland - svækket og presset, med mangel på energi, på basale fornødenheder, desillusionerede. Så hvad sker der med et splittet Europas garantier om at stå bag Ukraines forsvar for demokratiet til det sidste?
Gæster: Flemming Splidsboel, Ole Wæver Friis og Arne Petersen.
Vært: Steffen Gram. -
Aftalen om Den grønne trepart har givet Venstre fornyet selvtillid og frigjort partiet fra landbruget, mener Weekendavisens politiske journalist Hans Mortensen:
»Det brede landbrug støtter dem, mens det vrede landbrug bliver hos Inger Støjberg. Det betyder, at Venstre kan gå efter nogle andre vælgergrupper.«
Er det historisk, spørger Martin Krasnik både Hans Mortensen og Arne Hardis i Avistid.
Programmet er tilrettelagt og produceret af Birgit Nissen Pedersen.
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Der foregår en sjælekamp i Enhedslisten for tiden, som trækker tråde helt tilbage til 70ernes fraktionerede venstrefløj. En kamp mellem fløjen, der søger at tiltrække den radikaliserede ungdom på gaderne, og den mere pragmatiske fløj, som søger vælgervolume og politisk indflydelse på Christiansborg.
Men fløjkrigen er ikke ny. Den har været lagt under låg siden Enhedslisten blev etableret.
»Der er nogle opgør, man har forskubbet og tænkt, dem kommer vi aldrig til at skulle tage, men de er blevet påtrængende, de er blevet realpolitiske,« vurderer Arne Hardis i Avistid sammen med Hans Mortensen. Kan det mon resultere i et nyt parti?
Programmet er tilrettelagt og produceret af Birgit Nissen Pedersen.
Prøv også et abonnement på weekendavisen.dk/tilbud
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Donald Trump lod sig hylde efter sejren for bare en uge siden - omgivet af familie, rådgivere, milliardærer som Elon Musk og jublende tilhængere. Amerikanerne havde givet ham den største sejr til dato - og tilføjet Kamala Harris og demokraterne et sviende nederlag. Og denne gang er Trump parat til at tage magten. Bare en uge efter tegner billedet sig af hans nye administration. Så hvad vil Trump? Hvor fører han USA hen? Og hvad med hans forhold til omverdenen?
Gæster: Anne Alling, Thomas Falbe og Sara Maria Glanowski.
Vært: Steffen Gram. -
It's impossible to avoid talking about the potential implications of Donald Trump's election, even as its difficult to know for sure what he intends and almost as hard to say anything that hasn't already been said. I have a go, though, after considering Putin's hour-long speech and epic (or exhausting) 3-hour Q&A on the 'polyphonic' world order at Valdai.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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Verdens rigeste mand, Elon Musk, er her, der og allevegne i den amerikanske valgkamp. Han donerer enorme millionbeløb til Donald Trump. Han holder rallies og fylder alt på sit eget sociale medie X. Og så er han tilsyneladende udset til at få en nøglerolle i Trumps regering.
Sker det, vil fremtiden blive »AMAZING!«, siger Musk selv. Men hvad er det for en fremtid, han forestiller sig? Og har vi virkelig lyst til at leve i Elon Musks verden?
Det diskuterer Nikolaj Arve og Christian Bennike i dagens udgave af Avistid.
Programmet er tilrettelagt og produceret af Marie Louise Vesthardt og Birgit Nissen Pedersen.
Prøv også et abonnement på Weekendavisen: https://weekendavisen.dk/tilbud
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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