Afleveringen
-
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore how nostalgia influences politics and economic policy in the US and China, comparing their consumer cultures, industrial strategies, and the complex effects of tariffs on domestic economies and global relations.
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith
Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165
–
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
If you think Americans are mad now, just wait a few months: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/if-you-think-americans-are-mad-now
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Nostalgia in Politics: They discussed the role of nostalgia in politics, both in the US and China.
Cultural Evolution: US and China: Noah argues China and America are more culturally similar than America and Germany due to both having replaced ancestral cultures with mass consumerism.
Tariffs and Economic Impact: The conversation analyzes Trump's tariff policies and their economic consequences.
US-China-Europe Relations: Europe may increasingly partner with China economically as US relations deteriorate.
Economic Consequences of Trade Policy: Noah argues tariffs don't reindustrialize a country but actually deindustrialize it. -
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore topics ranging from the futuristic themes of Black Mirror and the societal impact of technology to a critical analysis of Trump’s de-industrializing tariff policies versus Biden’s growth-focused subsidies, while also examining libertarianism’s influence on American politics and the cultural shifts it may entail.
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith
Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165
–
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Worst-case scenarios and endgames for the Trump economy: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/worst-case-scenarios-and-endgames
In which I review almost every episode of Black Mirror: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/in-which-i-review-almost-every-episode
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Trump Administration Policies Discussion: Noah contrasts Trump's first term (pre-2019) with his expectations for the current term.
Biden Administration's Industrial Policy Approach: Noah highlights the different approach under Biden: adding support rather than disrupting existing systems.
Political and Economic Commentary: There's a discussion about Oren Cass (identified as a "conservative econ blogger" with a law degree) and his positions on industrial policy and tariffs.
Social Media's Impact on American Society: Noah presents a theory that America was "uniquely vulnerable" to social media's effects due to its geographical and ideological diversity.
Personal and Cultural Notes: The beginning features a discussion about the TV show "Black Mirror" and its exploration of technology implications. -
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
-
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the Trump administration’s trade policies, their impact on U.S. manufacturing and investment, discussing strategies to counter China’s influence through multi-country trade blocs and industrial policy, and examining currency dynamics, economic default risks, and the complexities of global trade.
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith
Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165
–
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
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@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Trade Policies: Noah describes the current administration's trade policies, particularly tariffs, as chaotic and poorly planned, comparing it to a "clown car" approach.
Economic Impacts of Recent Trade Policies: Tariffs and trade uncertainty are hurting the economy by creating business uncertainty that discourages investment, disrupting supply chains for manufacturers reliant on imported components, and driving capital flight that raises borrowing costs through the selling of U.S. treasuries.
Why Exports Matter: Noah emphasizes that exports (approximately $2.1 trillion worth) are crucial to the US economy.
On Currency Strength: Noah explains that a strong dollar has both advantages (increased purchasing power) and disadvantages (makes exports less competitive).
China Containment Strategy: Noah proposes an effective China containment strategy focused on creating a zero-tariff trade bloc among allied nations, building complete supply chains across friendly countries, targeting China with value-added tariffs rather than just final assembly tariffs, investing in industrial policy to strengthen key industries, and applying export controls strategically. -
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the global repercussions of Trump’s broad tariff policies, critique misconceptions about trade deficits, and explore the economic fallout and potential policy responses.
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith
Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165
–
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
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@eriktorenberg
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–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
All the arguments for Trumps Tariffs are wrong and bad: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/all-the-arguments-for-tariffs-are
This is called Capital Flight: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/this-is-called-capital-flight
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Tariff Policy Analysis: They discuss the implementation of widespread tariffs, particularly focusing on how the administration set tariff rates without sound economic methodology, possibly using AI to generate justifications.
Trade Deficit Misconception: Noah explains that trade deficits are often misunderstood - they're essentially loans where a country buys goods and provides IOUs (bonds) in return, not necessarily harmful to an economy.
Manufacturing Impact: They argue that tariffs may actually harm domestic manufacturing by making imported components, machinery, and raw materials more expensive, potentially leading to de-industrialization rather than re-industrialization.
International Relations: The discussion covers how trading partners are responding, with China imposing reciprocal high tariffs, while noting that many countries will likely seek alternative export markets rather than capitulate to demands.
Long-term Economic Outlook: The discussion paints a concerning picture of potential rising unemployment, continued market volatility, and possible inflation depending on which economic forces (panic or inefficiency) prove stronger. -
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the rise of the 'abundance' ideology among Democrats, assess Obama's economic legacy, and analyze the New Right's evolving influence, offering a broad perspective on shifting political and economic discourse.
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith
Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165
–
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
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@eriktorenberg
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–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
Cory McArthur aka Irish Lotus: https://soundcloud.com/cory-mcarthur-879994262/irish-lotus
–
TAKEAWAYS:
"Abundance" as a Political Concept: Abundance represents national unity and a "we're all in this together" approach, focusing on making things better for all Americans rather than pitting groups against each other.
Economic Analysis: Demand vs. Supply Constraints: They discuss how the 2008 financial crisis created an "aggregate demand shock" where everyone wanted to hold cash rather than spend.
National Debt Discussion: They discuss how US debt grew from 60% to 100% of GDP during Obama's administration. They also mention AI could potentially help by increasing productivity growth.
"The New Right" Ideology: Noah characterizes the "new right" as centered around defending "Western civilization" in a more narrow sense than previous definitions.
Social Media's Impact on Politics: Noah argues that small, vocal minorities on social media have outsized influence on institutions. -
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Tornberg explore Japan’s economic and societal structure—covering urban zoning, housing policy, and government efficiency—before critiquing Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, advocating for balanced market dynamics and governance, and discussing broader socio-political themes like right-wing ideologies, gender in the workforce, and economic populism.
–
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Found
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AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Abundance: https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482
I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Japan's Urban Development Success: Japan's efficient housing development stems from streamlined approvals, standardized zoning, administrative processes, and mixed-use zoning.
Abundance Agenda Discussion: Noah analyzed Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson's "Abundance" book, which promotes a results-oriented progressive approach focused on building things.
Government Structure and Process: Successful governance needs both market mechanisms and effective bureaucracy.
Political Factions and Resistance: Discussion of different progressive factions (Warren vs. Bernie supporters).
The "Doge" Discussion: References to "Doge" (likely Project 2025) as an ideological effort to reduce bureaucracy. -
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore global economic issues, including US-European relations influenced by defense commitments, the impact of Trump’s policies, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its exclusion of India, the role of AI in economic growth, government spending’s effects on GDP, and briefly discuss Smith’s upcoming book, Weeb Economy, and Noah's trip to Japan.
–
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Found
Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Weeb Economy: https://bookplus.nikkei.com/atcl/catalog/25/03/02/01880/
I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
U.S.-Europe Relations & Geopolitical Shifts: Examines the U.S. shift away from supporting Europe, debating whether it was exploited or harming its own interests, with Trump’s strength-focused foreign policy potentially pivoting toward Russia, risking economic and intelligence ties with Europe.
China's Economic Strategy & Globalization: The Belt and Road Initiative has largely failed, with poorly executed projects and unsustainable debt burdens for recipient countries.
India's Industrialization & Economic Future: India needs a major shift in labor dynamics, particularly increasing women's participation in factory work.
AI, Economic Growth & the O-Ring Theory: AI’s impact on economic growth is debated—some expect 10% growth, while Noah sees 5% as more realistic.
Japan’s Economy & Currency Strength: Japan should push for a new Plaza Accord with the U.S. to strengthen the yen.
AI’s Impact on Jobs & Productivity: AI is unlikely to eliminate all jobs but will require major adjustments in industries and legal structures. -
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the chaos caused by Trump's trade policies, tariffs' effects on the U.S. economy, potential recession risks, economic isolationism, policy uncertainty, investment impacts, and the broader cultural and societal shifts in America, including the decline of Christianity, the rise of wokeness, and community disintegration.
–
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Found
Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Incogni
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Economic Impact of Trump's Tariffs: Noah argues that Trump's tariffs (especially on Canada and Mexico) are damaging the US economy more severely than the China tariffs from his first term.
Why Tariffs Are Harmful: Factors such as reduced market scale for American companies, loss of specialization benefits, technological isolation ("Galapagos Syndrome"), policy uncertainty hindering business investment, and the negative impact on exports due to exchange rate effects and retaliatory tariffs are all contributing challenges.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Debate about whether tariffs will cause stagflation or a demand shock that lowers inflation.
Cultural and Social Commentary: Discussion of Ennis Lyons' argument about "the return of the strong gods" (nationalism, family, tradition, religion).
Innovation and National Success: Discussion about Japan's impressive innovation record (extensive list of Japanese inventions) -
In this episode, Noah Smith recently went on the Break the Rules podcast, hosted by Lev Polyakov, for a debate with Auron MacIntyre. They discuss the societal implications of AI development, focusing on Trump's relationships with tech leaders, AI systems like Stargate, surveillance, economic productivity, regulatory measures, geopolitical competition, and immigrant labor's role in technological advancements.
–
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
🎙️Break The Rules - Hosted by Lev Polyakov, Break The Rules brings different online & offline circles together at a time of social atomization in order to break echo-chambers.
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/break-the-rules/id1543233584
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0yovF9Vo8n1fF1DGlMuWBh
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@breakth3rules/
–
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Found
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AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Incogni
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
@LevPo
@AuronMacintyre
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Trump Liberty or Technocracy? Auron Macintyre & Noah Smith: https://www.youtube.com/live/pH_nuk94FQk?si=D-5qvd74cpBSjwfm
The Total State: How Liberal Democracies Become Tyrannies: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1684515580ref_=cm_sw_r_cp_ud_dp_5Q231Q8CQ65W8Z0PTQ3H
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
AI Development and Trump Administration: The discussion examines Donald Trump's meetings with tech leaders and the "Stargate" AI system, raising questions about whether the administration will embrace technocratic control systems or maintain populist principles.
Labor Market Effects: Noah points out that despite previous AI advances, we've seen wage increases for lower-skilled workers and movement toward higher-skilled jobs, challenging assumptions about AI's negative impact on employment.
Oligarchic Influences: Auron describes the current political landscape as an "age of oligarchy" where different factions of wealthy interests compete for influence, with Trump balancing populist rhetoric against tech billionaire support.
Civilization Complexity Theory: Auron references Joseph Tainter's theory on how increasing complexity with diminishing returns contributes to civilizational collapse, suggesting AI may be an attempt to escape these human limitations.
Immigration Comparisons: Noah argues that despite current debates about immigration, America faces fewer ethnic tensions than 100 years ago, providing historical perspective on current social challenges. -
This week, we're sharing Richard Hanania and Noah Smith’s live conversation from Feb 6th, recorded for their Substack audiences. This is the first time the two writers have met, and in this conversation they covered fundamental differences between the American right and left movements. They also discuss Elon Musk's positioning as the future Republican kingmaker and Noah's theory that Musk envisions coordinating a global "anti-woke alliance" with Putin and Xi.
–
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
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Found
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
@RichardHanania
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Richard Hanania’s Newsletter: https://www.richardhanania.com/
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
Too many Americans still fear the future: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/too-many-americans-still-fear-the
The chaos has arrived: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-chaos-has-arrived
Trump's Executive Branch Revolution: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/trumps-executive-branch-revolution
Trump impose large tariffs in first year?: https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-first?play=false
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Richard notes Trump's first administration achieved success with Middle East normalization agreements.
Noah compares Ukraine war to Finland's Winter War - Ukraine may lose territory but maintain independence.
Richard questions whether taking NATO membership off the table could have prevented the Ukraine conflict.
Right-wing politics revolves around personal loyalty while left-wing politics centers on ideological purity.
Elon Musk is positioning himself as the kingmaker for the post-Trump Republican party.
Richard supports technological progress, believing future generations should benefit from AI and genetic engineering.
Noah argues societies that resist technological progress inevitably get left behind in global competition.
Richard expresses skepticism about Democrats' ability to reform, citing Obama's failed education reform efforts.
Noah predicts Democrats won't move away from "institutional wokeness" until the 2030s. -
This week Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss three key areas where Democrats need to rethink their strategy: embracing anti-inflation policies similar to the Clinton era, focusing on genuine threats to democracy rather than partisan hobby horses, and abandoning progressive language policing that alienates voters. Noah also talks about how Elon Musk has transformed Republican effectiveness by bringing entrepreneurial talent to politics, arguing that Democrats need to stop alienating tech entrepreneurs and instead recruit similar talent to their side.
–
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Found
Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102
Incogni
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
🎙️ Second Opinion
Join Christina Farr, Ash Zenooz and Luba Greenwood as they bring influential entrepreneurs, experts and investors into the ring for candid conversations at the frontlines of healthcare and digital health every week.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/second-opinion-with-christina-farr-ash-zenooz-md-luba/id1759267211
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SecondOpinionwithChristinaFarr
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Democrats can capitalize on the mistakes of their opponents, particularly regarding economic policies.
The perception of inflation is a significant issue for voters, and Democrats need to address it effectively.
Defending democracy is crucial, but Democrats must focus on the actual threats rather than long-term issues like gerrymandering.
The Democratic Party needs to reassess its progressive ideals and messaging to resonate with a broader audience.
Cultural shifts, such as language policing, can alienate potential supporters for the Democratic Party.
The entrepreneurial class holds significant power and talent that Democrats should engage with.
Democrats need to communicate a patriotic vision of America to counter negative narratives.
The trans movement is distinct from other civil rights movements and requires a nuanced approach.
A clear and assertive stance on America's founding principles can help Democrats regain credibility. Young people are increasingly forming situationships instead of traditional relationships.
The Inflation Reduction Act was more about political maneuvering than actual inflation reduction.
Biden's economic policies have effectively reduced inflation through various measures.
Democracy is threatened not just by election denial but by the erosion of checks and balances.
A new economic paradigm is needed that addresses modern challenges and national security.
Deregulation is essential for economic growth and should be prioritized.
The bureaucratic model in Japan could offer insights for improving U.S. governance.
Elon Musk's approach to government may be influenced by right-wing media rather than policy experts.
A pluralistic social media ecosystem is emerging as people seek alternatives to traditional platforms.
There is potential for a smarter Democratic party in response to the changing political landscape. -
In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss how Ukraine has proven surprisingly resilient throughout the war by maintaining its economy and developing significant domestic drone manufacturing capabilities. He argues that "Europe is not toothless" despite America's shifting role, detailing how Europe collectively has greater manufacturing capacity than America and identifying three key reforms Europe needs: deregulating software, building energy infrastructure, and removing internal trade barriers.
–
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
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Found
Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102
Incogni
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
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@eriktorenberg
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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: It’s time for Europe to stand up https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/its-time-for-europe-to-stand-up
Book: Old Man’s War by John Scalzi https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36510196-old-man-s-war
–
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod
–
TAKEAWAYS
Ukraine has shown resilience in sustaining its war efforts.
US aid to Ukraine is becoming less crucial over time.
Turkey's support for Ukraine is significant.
Europe has substantial manufacturing capacity for military needs.
Historical patterns of expansionism are relevant to current geopolitics. Putin's expansionist ambitions can be compared to Louis XIV's.
Europe's aging population poses challenges for military readiness.
Russia's reliance on China complicates its geopolitical stance.
Economic reforms are crucial for Europe's resilience, including deregulation of the software industry.
Internal trade barriers hinder European economic integration.
America's role as a protector of Europe is diminishing. -
This week, we’re bringing you an episode from the How to Money podcast, hosted by Joel Larsgaard and Matt Altmix, with special guest Noah Smith. Together, they dive into a range of topics, including the impact of tariffs, Substack’s revolutionary media model, and Noah’s unique economic philosophy. Tune in for insights on the escalating national debt, the baby bust, and the rising costs of U.S. healthcare. Noah also offers solutions, with a focus on boosting productivity and strategic immigration. Plus, don’t miss their take on Argentina’s dramatic economic decisions!
--
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
--
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
Check out How To Money Podcast on:
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-to-money/id1337718773
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6i5Cau3GShqOxHkSRT5TjL
iHeart: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-how-to-money-30166328/
--
Highlights from the Episode: (for more head to https://www.howtomoney.com/tariffs-doge-and-your-money-w-noahpinion/)
Trump's approach to tariffs appears to be influenced by stock market reactions.
The main spending pressures come from healthcare programs (Medicare and Medicaid).
Declining birth rates (around 1.5-1.6 children per woman in developed countries) pose significant economic challenges.
Healthcare costs are primarily driven by providers such as hospitals, doctors, equipment, and pharma, while insurance companies, operating on low profit margins, mainly serve as cost pass-throughs, with recent slowdowns in cost growth potentially easing budget pressures.
Technological advances in AI, solar, and batteries could drive future growth.
President Milei's economic reforms, though initially painful, are showing positive results.
--
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
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@HowToMoneyJoel
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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
How To Money: https://www.howtomoney.com/
Tariffs, DOGE, and Your Money w/ Noahpinion – Episode 944: https://www.howtomoney.com/tariffs-doge-and-your-money-w-noahpinion/ -
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg talk about DOGE, Elon Musk's initiative to reform government spending, and explore why it might be more about ideology than efficiency. Noah talks about how he would fix the US debt beyond simply cutting waste. They also cover the future of major programs like Medicaid ($804B/year), the trade-offs between inflation and austerity, and how conservatives might reshape federal institutions despite education polarization. Plus: why comparing government efficiency to Twitter's headcount reduction isn't as straightforward as it seems.
--
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
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Highlights from the Episode:
Noah argues that while Doge (Department of Government Efficiency) is publicly presented as a cost-cutting initiative, it's primarily an ideological project aimed at reducing "woke" initiatives in government.
As zero-interest debt gets rolled over at higher rates (around 4%), interest costs are reaching historic highs as a percentage of GDP.
Austerity measures will likely involve difficult choices for the middle class. Healthcare spending in the U.S. is disproportionately high compared to other wealthy nations.
Government efficiency is harder to measure than corporate efficiency due to its multiple, often conflicting objectives, the influence of democratic processes, and congressional oversight, which complicates decision-making about program value.
--
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Found
Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102.
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/what-i-think-doge-is-really-up-to -
This week, Noah Smith and Stripe CEO Patrick Collison recorded a live conversation on Substack covering topics such as American technological leadership, global competition, industrial policy, foreign direct investment, post-financial crisis productivity trends, US financial system advantages, progressive policies, the middle class, tariffs, immigration, technological advancements like humanoid robots, Gen Z’s well-being, and key policy recommendations for economic and social progress. This conversation first aired in Noah's substack Noahpinion, so be sure to subscribe if you aren't already.
--
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
--
Highlights from the Episode: (for more head to https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/patrick-collison-interview-at-least)
The U.S. has maintained its technological edge relative to most developed nations, particularly pulling ahead of Europe, Japan, and South Korea.
A key U.S. advantage is its diverse financing system - about 80% of U.S. commercial lending is non-bank lending, compared to only 20% in the UK.
The U.S. benefits from a large, unified domestic market, further strengthened by continued immigration, which attracts investment and fosters clustering effects, especially in sectors like software.
There are concerns about Gen Z's reported lower life satisfaction and mental health challenges.
Replacing NEPA with administrative review (similar to Japan's system).
--
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Notion
📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod
Found
Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102.
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
--
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
--
FOLLOW ON X:
@patrickc
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@eriktorenberg
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--
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
Patrick Collison interview + at least five interesting things: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/patrick-collison-interview-at-least
Stripe: https://stripe.com/ -
In this week’s episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith, with special guest Nathan Labenz (host of AI podcast The Cognitive Revolution) breaks down the current landscape of U.S.-China relations and how once-allies became rivals under Xi Jinping's aggressive strategies. While China shows growing AI capabilities like DeepSeek, Smith emphasizes that the real concern isn't about AI models but rather military applications like autonomous drones and precision weapons, suggesting that the next decade represents a critical period for managing tensions and establishing deterrence.
--
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
--
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
Check out Nathan Labenz's podcast The Cognitive Revolution
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast/
--
Highlights from the Episode:
The US and China were largely de facto allies throughout the 20th century, except for brief periods like the Korean War.
Xi Jinping's "great changes unseen in a century" doctrine signals intent to challenge US-led global order.
US chip export controls have been effective at limiting China's advanced chip manufacturing.
Military technology prioritizes maintaining a technological edge in precision weapons and autonomous systems, with conventional deterrence still key despite nuclear capabilities, while chip controls focus on preserving advantages in military applications over civilian technology.
Concerns about AI competition include skepticism over maintaining US "AI supremacy," the potential difficulty in containing AI capabilities like those of DeepSeek, and the risk that an aggressive approach could escalate conflict.
--
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Found
Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102.
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
--
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
@labenz
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
Dwarkesh podcast with Sarah Paine https://youtu.be/fx6fakjQBdo?si=FR4ZGTGWzXsO4__E
Book: Rush Doshi, The Long Game https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52617647-the-long-game
Book: John Mearsheimer Conventional Deterrence https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/224128.Conventional_Deterrence
Noahpinion essay: Simple Lessons from China's Big AI Breakthrough https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-simple-lessons-from-chinas-big
Noahpinion Essay: The Elemental Foe https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-elemental-foe?utm_source=publication-search -
This week Noah Smith and economist Paul Krugman hopped on a call to discuss Paul's departure from the New York Times, the benefits of independent writing, U.S. manufacturing and industrial policy, geopolitics, Trump 2.0, and the impact of public opinion on economic and political discourse. This conversation first aired in Noah's substack Noahpinion, so be sure to subscribe if you aren't already.
--
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
--
Highlights from the Episode: (for more head to https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/paul-krugman-and-noah-smith-have)
Discussed the transitioning from traditional media (NYT, Bloomberg) to Substack for greater editorial freedom and authentic voice, noting that traditional outlets still maintain an "establishment" mindset.
On Substack, Krugman settlies on 1100 words per post and Noah aims for 2000-2500 words.
Public perception of the economy often shifts dramatically based on political affiliation rather than actual economic conditions.
How the Ukraine war has highlighted the importance of manufacturing capability for national security.
Current Political Climate: Greater concern about current political risks compared to previous eras like the Reagan administration.
Explored how national security concerns are reshaping trade policy thinking.
--
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Notion
📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod
AdQuick
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
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@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
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--
LINKS:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/paul-krugman-and-noah-smith-have -
In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss wide range of topics, including Trump’s executive orders and their effects on U.S. politics, international tariffs, Michael Pettis's views on China's economy, the Middle East’s potential with solar energy, and Europe’s socio-political shifts, all through the lens of economics.
--
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
--
Highlights from the Episode:
There's worry about potential economic instability if Trump's aggressive trade policies lead to stagflation.
Concern about China potentially influencing Trump through various financial mechanisms, including cryptocurrency.
The Middle East holds a surprisingly optimistic outlook, with the end of the "oil curse" prompting institutional growth, its geography offering ideal conditions for solar energy, and the potential for solar-powered desalination to transform agriculture.
European countries struggle more with integration due to different cultural approaches and institutional structures.
Interesting parallel drawn between Europe's historical transformation after the 30 Years War and potential for Middle East development.
--
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Notion
📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
--
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
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@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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LINKS:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -
While traveling to Taiwan, Noah Smith sat down with ChinaTalk's managing editor and Taipei correspondent Lily Ottinger to explore wide range of geopolitical and economic issues, including the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on Asia, where Elon Musk stands on Taiwan, nuclear proliferation, China's economic strategies, Taiwan's defense and diplomatic policies, and demographic shifts.
--
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
--
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: ChinaTalk
Check out ChinaTalk. Conversations exploring China, technology, and US-China relations. Guests include a wide range of analysts, policymakers, and academics. Hosted by Jordan Schneider.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/chinatalk/id1289062927
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/448WaJhgJGJKnQ3HCE2EBa
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaTalkMedia
--
Highlights from the Episode:
Trump's coalition now includes a powerful tech sector pushing for deregulation, while his personal corruption and susceptibility to influence could make him vulnerable to China, particularly through platforms like TikTok, with export controls serving as a key indicator of his policy stance toward Beijing.
Nuclear weapons have historically proven effective at preventing invasion of states that possess them.
China is experiencing debt deflation similar to Japan's 1990s situation, where falling prices increase the real burden of debt.
Xi Jinping's conservative economic views, particularly resistance to stimulus and healthcare spending, may prolong recovery.
Taiwan's laid-back culture and success stand in stark contrast to mainland China's approach.
Under Xi, China has reversed some of the liberalization that occurred under previous leaders.
--
SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Notion
📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
--
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
LINKS:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
ChinaTalk: https://www.chinatalk.media/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/lily-ottinger/ -
In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Scott Sumner, an American economist and previously the Director of the Program on Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, examine the impact of U.S.-China relations on economic and industrial policies, discussing topics such as tariffs, manufacturing capabilities, technologies like drones and batteries, climate change, defense strategies, and the evolving role of neoliberalism.
--
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
--
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Modern Relationships
Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod
--
Highlights from the Episode:
Neoliberalism vs. Industrial Policy: The world is moving away from neoliberalism toward industrial policy and authoritarian nationalism.
Chinese manufacturing of green technology has supported global climate efforts, sparking debate over whether US trade barriers on Chinese green tech are counterproductive, alongside a discussion of carbon taxes versus other climate policies.
China now matches US and allies combined in manufacturing capacity.
Trump's tariffs are seen as ineffective for reindustrialization, while Biden's CHIPS Act and IRA are viewed as more successful in specific sectors, prompting a discussion on targeted versus broad industrial policies.
Housing and healthcare costs are significant barriers to living standards.
--
SPONSORS:
Notion
📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
--
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
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FOLLOW ON X:
@ScottSumnerTMI
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
LINKS:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
The Pursuit of Happiness: https://scottsumner.substack.com/ - Laat meer zien
