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This is the second episode of This Won’t Last. The show is a monthly conversation between Logan Bartlett of Redpoint, Keith Rabois at Khosla Ventures, Kevin Ryan at Alleycorp, and Zach Weinberg, biotech founder (Curie.Bio) and investor. This episode covers Khosla’s initial investment into OpenAI, runaway AI CapEx, long-term AI leaderboards, and regulatory implications in AI.
This Won't Last is part of the Turpentine podcast network.
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🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
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Subscribe on YouTube:
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https://www.youtube.com/@theloganbartlettshow
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RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Unpack Pricing
Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg
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Links:
OpenAI and Anthropic revenue data: https://www.tanayj.com/p/openai-and-anthropic-revenue-breakdown
Anthropic CEO on future $10B model: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/dario-amodei
Hardware costs in Scaling AI: https://fortune.com/2024/04/04/ai-training-costs-how-much-is-too-much-openai-gpt-anthropic-microsoft/
Comparing Quality/Speed/Price of AI models: https://artificialanalysis.ai/
CA banning election deep fakes on social media: https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/17/californias-5-new-ai-laws-crack-down-on-election-deepfakes-and-actor-clones/
Life expectancy relative to spending in Healthcare: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy-vs-health-expenditure
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:39) Show origins
(02:39) OpenAI funding, Khosla’s initial investment
(06:40) Talent shortage and power law engineers
(11:47) Engineer tenure at startups
(15:12) OpenAI metrics
(19:26) AI CapEx
(25:01) Zach’s Pixel vs iPhone
(25:36) OpenAI vs Perplexity and Google
(32:03) Safety concerns in AI
(40:38) Misinformation regulation
(46:38) Regulations in healthcare
(48:44) Gambling regulations
(58:49) Hidden downsides of regulations
(01:03:59) Individual responsibilities
(01:13:33) Closing -
This is the debut episode of This Won’t Last, a monthly conversation between Logan Bartlett of Redpoint, Keith Rabois at Khosla Ventures, Kevin Ryan at Alleycorp, and Zach Weinberg, biotech founder (Curie.Bio) and investor. This episode covers Founder Mode, the state of VC fundraising, the potential for an unrealized gains tax, and Russia’s influence in Telegram.
This Won't Last is part of the Turpentine podcast network.
--
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
--
🎥 Subscribe on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast
https://www.youtube.com/@theloganbartlettshow
--
𝕏
https://x.com/thiswontlast
https://x.com/rabois
https://x.com/loganbartlett
https://x.com/kevinryan
https://x.com/zachweinberg
https://x.com/Redpoint
https://x.com/turpentinemedia
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Links:
Keith’s Recs:
High Output Management by Andy Grove
Keith Rabois’ lecture notes from 2013: "How to Operate" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fQHLK1aIBs
Tesla versus Edison: The Last Days of Night: A Novel by Graham Moore
Disruptive Innovation by Clayton M. Christensen
The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing by Michael J. Mauboussin
Kevin’s Recs:
Dark Wire by Joseph Cox
Logan’s Recs:
On railroads: Engines That Move Markets by Alistair Nairn
Wired: “The Kremlin has entered your chat”
--
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Unpack Pricing
Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg
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TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(02:39) Kevin comes back from Burning Man
(04:20) Paul Graham’s Founder Mode
(05:45) Founder mode intuitive for Keith, Pierre Lamond anecdote
(07:00) Keith’s response to kernel of Founder Mode, Andy Grove High Output Management
(08:28) What’s unique about Founder Mode?
(09:13) Manager vs. Founder
(12:57) Founder moral authority
(15:00) Investing in founder driven CEOs
(18:47) State of venture markets
(21:15) Driverless car future
(26:25) Revenue quality in AI valuations
(33:00) New technology disruptive or helpful for incumbents
(35:40) AI in Biotech
(38:44) AI impacting fund AUM
(42:30) AI as the transistor
(43:25) Hurdle to return AI CapEx
(44:30) Unrealized Capital Gains Tax
(47:27) Sweden’s tax vs Norway and corporation tax rates
(54:50) Medicare & Social Security, beneficial tax policies
(1:00:45) Misleading life expectancy stats
(1:02:15) Lina Khan, Antitrust effect on tech industry
(1:10:20) Perplexity shocking Google
(1:12:30) Pavel Durov and Russia’s Influence in Telegram
(1:16:45) Not using TikTok and Telegram, risk in capital in Chinese companies
(1:22:25) Closing
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