Afleveringen
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Donald Trump delays his 50% tariff on Europe, which boosts stocks there. But gold remains up near record highs on all the uncertainty. Singapore’s factory output rebounds, reducing the chances of a technical recession. And the RBNZ is expected to cut the OCR again tomorrow
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes has taken a closer look at the aluminium market and finds supply issues are adding to the tension also building over rising trade barriers.
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Donald Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Europe and a 25% tariff on Apple iPhones. Japanese bond yields surge to multi-decade highs. Oil production is set to rise. And New Zealand’s retail trade beats expectations in the March quarter.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses Trump’s latest moves and the selloff in long bonds globally, and the US in particular.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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US markets bounce after Donald Trump’s tax bill passed in the House, just. New Zealand’s Government smooths its bond issuance out. Japanese business confidence falls. Singapore warns of a technical recession, and low Malaysian inflation could support a mid-year rate cut.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says the New Zealand Budget should only have a limited impact on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate cut thinking.
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The selloff of US assets resumes as concerns about ballooning US Government debt pushed the 30-year Treasury yield over 5% to its highest level in 18 years. Indonesia cuts rates as currency worries fade. And New Zealand records a record trade surplus ahead of today’s Budget.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim analyses recent trends in India’s trade flows as authorities there look to secure a trade deal with the US.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts 25 basis points, but considered a 50-point cut amid global uncertainty, sending the Aussie dollar down overnight. US stocks fall amid budget concerns. China cuts key lending rates, and Asian exports surge through April.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why he expects the Reserve Bank of Australia will next cut rates in August.
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International investors sell US assets after Moodys cut the US sovereign credit rating. The UK does a trade deal with the EU. The wealth effect from China’s property market slump is still on consumption. The RBA is expected to cut 25 bps today, but be cautious about more. And Thailand’s stronger-than-expected GDP flatters to deceive.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga takes stock of the latest tariff moves.
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US consumer confidence slumps, but markets are firm, hopeful the Fed can cut, but that may be a while off. Asian markets will watch key economic data from China today, and ANZ Research has lifted its New Zealand inflation forecast a bit.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman takes a closer look at Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating on Friday, due to high and fast-growing US Government debt.
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US retail sales are soft and US producer prices fall. The RBA is expected to look through Australia’s jobs market surge in April, and New Zealand house prices appear to have turned a corner.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari looks into shifting patterns in Chinese Gold demand, and what that might do to the Gold price.
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US markets are mixed after Donald Trump’s partial de-escalation of tariffs on China. Investors are looking ahead to US retail sales data tonight. Australian wage growth beats forecasts before jobs data today, while housing lending fell before the election. And New Zealand’s migrant departures hit a new record high.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at the ability for ASEAN economies and India to use fiscal policy to respond to the economic effects of US tariffs.
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US stocks and oil bounce on lower US inflation and another cut in tariffs on China, sending the Aussie and Kiwi dollars up around 1.5% overnight. Lower inflation in India sets a path for a June rate cut. And consumer confidence rises again in Australia.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses the US-China trade deal, and what to expect next.
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US stocks, the US dollar and oil prices surged overnight on hopes a US deal with China to both slash their tariffs for 90 days will stick, and revive growth prospects. Gold, safe haven currencies and bond prices fell. Markets will now focus on US inflation data tonight.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Sophia Angala analyses why China’s domestic growth means more for Australia’s exporters than China’s exports.
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The US reports substantial progress in weekend trade talks with China. A ceasefire between India and Pakistan is holding. China re-routed a lot of exports to Asia and Europe in April. ANZ Research raises its milk price forecasts in New Zealand to a record high $10/kg.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani explains a divergence that has developed between the economies of South Korea and Taiwan, despite facing the same tariff shocks to their exports to the United States
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Markets rally after the US does a trade deal with the UK that keeps the 10% baseline tariff on most imports. The Bank of England cuts rates, but hawkishly. And exports from Taiwan and Vietnam jumped unexpectedly in April after US importers front-loaded shipments as soon as the 90-day US tariff pause started.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim looks at how the China-plus-one diversification strategy has affected regional Foreign Direct Investment flows in surprising ways.
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The Fed has held, as expected. China has lowered interest rates to cushion its domestic economy from the Liberation Day tariff shock. Those lower rates have unleashed extra funds going out of China and into Hong Kong, putting upward pressure on its currency peg with the US dolllar. And New Zealand jobs data was soft, despite a better than expected unemployment rate.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers explains how Australia’s A$4 trillion pension savings system is improving Australia’s current account deficit.
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US stocks fall on a lack of trade deals ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision. The US trade deficit blows out on import stockpiling ahead of Trump’s tariffs. The UK signs a trade deal with India, and China’s consumers spend strongly over a holiday weekend.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers explains how Australia’s A$4 trillion pension savings system is reducing the nation’s previous reliance on foreign capital.
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The Taiwan dollar surges, forcing central bank intervention. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority also intervenes to stop the Hong Kong dollar breaking its peg. Oil prices slide on extra production from OPEC. Indonesia is set to cut interest rates.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at whether a sharp selloff in India’s stock market is justified.
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Oil prices are set to fall again with Saudi Arabia expected to force through a deal to increase output later today. Australia’s election result suggests incumbent Governments are safer than they used to be. ANZ Research trims its Australian GDP forecasts. And Indonesia’s GDP growth is softening.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities strategist Daniel Hynes says metals markets should prepare for strategic reserves building of the type already seen in oil markets.
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US stocks jump on tech earnings, but a new US manufacturing survey points to rising chances of a US recession. The Bank of Japan holds dovishly, which drives the yen down. Australia’s exports jump in March pre-tariffs, while Korea’s exports fall in April.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner looks at the prospects of lower business confidence feeding into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate cut projections.
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US GDP falls for the first time since 2022. US stocks slide 0.5% and oil prices fall 3.4%. Lower core inflation in Australia lends support to the RBA cutting in May, New Zealand business confidence slumps on the tariff shock, and the Bank of Thailand cuts.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim analyses foreign direct investment flows in Asia, with some interesting findings on outward investment flows.
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US stocks firm, but oil prices slide after another slump in US consumer confidence drove growth views and Treasury yields lower. Australian consumer confidence falls, and Australia’s inflation rate is forecast to be lower in March quarter data out today.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh analyses Vietnam’s growth prospects as it scrambles to get a trade deal with the United States.
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