Afleveringen
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It was a pleasure to welcome Colin Lancaster, Global Co-Head of Discretionary Macro and Fixed Income at Schoenfeld Strategic Advisors, back to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion focuses on the evolution of the multi-manager model, portfolio construction, and the challenges of navigating todayâs macro environment.
Colin discusses the importance of systems, data, and risk infrastructure, and why scale has increasingly become a competitive advantage. We explore how firms differentiate themselves through strategy mix, geographic focus, and organizational culture, even as the industry has converged around a similar set of core investment disciplines.
A further theme throughout the discussion is talent. Colin outlines his approach to identifying and underwriting portfolio managers, emphasizing self-awareness, intellectual honesty, resilience, and the ability to articulate a sustainable edge. He also discusses the growing importance of managing correlations across strategies, particularly during periods of market stress.
Lastly, we turn to the macro backdrop, including inflation persistence, sovereign bond markets, central bank policy, and the changing role of liquidity in financial markets. Colin shares views on crowding, leverage, and the risks associated with concentrated positioning across increasingly interconnected markets.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Colin Lancaster.
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It was a pleasure to host a discussion with Ronnie Wexler, Global Head of Equities Distribution at Barclays, and solicit his insights on change â in markets, in client relationships and in the growing role of technology across the financial ecosystem.
We begin with Ronnieâs early years at Goldman Sachs during the final stages of the technology bubble and the sharp market reversal that followed. He reflects on how periods of market stress, from the post-dot-com bear market to the GFC, have shaped his perspective on risk and the importance of being adaptable in markets that are constantly moving.
The conversation then turns to the changing structure of institutional investing. Ronnie discusses the growth of hedge funds in pursuit of industrial-scale alpha generation, highlighting how client needs have become increasingly cross-asset, and solutions-oriented. He explains how a sell-side equities business today functions as an integrated ecosystem that spans prime brokerage, derivatives, electronic trading, and financing.
A major theme throughout the discussion is the accelerating pace of technological change. Ronnie describes recent experiences using AI development tools and outlines how firms are integrating them into workflows ranging from onboarding and automation to research distribution and client analytics.
We also explore the rise of bespoke and OTC solutions, including quantitative investment strategies, custom baskets, and exotic option structures. Here Ronnie emphasizes that these products reflect broader changes in market structure, positioning, and risk transfer across institutional portfolios.
The conversation concludes with thoughts on recruiting, apprenticeship culture, and the need for firms to balance human judgment with increasingly sophisticated technological infrastructure. -
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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I was excited to host this conversation with Rob Flatley, Founder and CEO of TS Imagine, on prediction markets, AI-driven workflows, and the structural changes reshaping financial market infrastructure.
We begin with Robâs path from software engineering into capital markets, including leadership roles at Bank of America and Deutsche Bank during the rise of electronic trading and through the Global Financial Crisis. That experience informs a broader perspective on how market infrastructure evolves during periods of stress and technological transition.
The conversation then turns to artificial intelligence and the distinction between large language models and reinforcement learning systems. Rob explains why traditional deterministic workflows in settlement and collateral management create different challenges than probabilistic systems such as risk management. He argues that the next phase of AI adoption will focus less on generating language and more on learning and automating complex workflows across financial systems.
We also explore prediction markets, an area where Rob and his team have spent significant time building infrastructure and risk frameworks. He discusses how markets tied to elections, Fed policy, GDP, inflation, and geopolitical outcomes are beginning to move from retail experimentation toward institutional relevance.
We also discuss tokenization and settlement infrastructure. Rob outlines how stablecoins, digital ledgers, and atomic settlement could reshape financing, custody, collateral mobility, and the economics of intermediated finance. We discuss the implications for prime brokerage, repo, clearinghouses, and 24-hour trading environments.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Rob Flatley.
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It was a pleasure to host a conversation with Hari Krishnan, Head of Volatility Strategies at SCT Capital, on the changing nature of volatility markets, portfolio hedging, and why commodities may offer increasingly valuable diversification in todayâs environment.
Hari reflects on his book Second Leg Down, which explores practical approaches to tail-risk hedging and the cyclical nature of volatility. He discusses how investors often ignore protection in calm periods, only to rush toward hedges after markets have already repriced risk. That dynamic leads to a broader conversation on planning, budgeting, and approaching hedging as an ongoing portfolio discipline rather than a reactive decision.
We then turn to option markets more broadly, including volatility risk premium, skew, and the challenge of protecting against fat-tailed outcomes. Hari explains why moderately out-of-the-money options often embed persistent premium, while deeper tail risks can be difficult to price with confidence.
The conversation then shifts to commodities, where Hari sees a differentiated opportunity set. We discuss how producer hedging, end-user demand, and forward-curve dynamics create a very different volatility ecosystem than that in equities. He outlines a strategy focused on gaining long exposure to select commodities while using options structures to reduce carry costs and preserve upside convexity.
We close with a discussion on cross-asset dislocations, the recent divergence between oil, gold, and equities, the role of commodities in a world where bonds may be less defensive, and how AI tools are accelerating research, customization, and hypothesis testing across markets.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Hari Krishnan. -
It was a pleasure to welcome Rob Kaplan, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs, and former President of the Dallas Fed, to the Alpha Exchange.
We begin with Robâs reflections on his time at the helm of the Dallas Fed from 2015 to 2021, a period spanning rate liftoff, fiscal stimulus, and the COVID crisis. He outlines how his perspective as a business practitioner led him to focus on structural forcesâdemographics, globalization, and technologyârather than relying solely on cyclical data and economic models.
We then turn to the current environment, where the Fed faces a more complex trade-off between inflation and employment. Rob highlights the limits of monetary policy, emphasizing that broader economic outcomes are increasingly shaped by fiscal policy, regulation, and structural trends beyond the Fedâs control.
The conversation also explores changes in financial markets, including the diminished influence of Fed policy on the long end of the yield curve, the growing importance of supply and demand for Treasuries, and the implications of a more leveraged global economy.
We close with a discussion on regulation, private credit, and the impact of geopolitical shocks, as well as how AI-driven disruption is influencing corporate behavior and risk management across industries.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Rob Kaplan.
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It was a pleasure to welcome Wayne Dahl, Co-Portfolio Manager of Global Credit Strategy at Oaktree Capital Management, to the Alpa Exchange.
We begin with Wayneâs path through convertible arbitrage, structured credit, and multi-asset investing, and how that foundation informs a framework centered on understanding sensitivities across rates, credit, and equity exposures. Convertible arbitrage, in particular, serves as an entry point into managing multiple dimensions of risk simultaneously, reinforcing a core principle: avoiding large losses is essential to long-term compounding.
We explore Oaktreeâs consistent investment philosophyâone that prioritizes credit fundamentals over macro forecasting and emphasizes patience in periods of compressed risk premiums. Wayne reflects on environments like 2021, where low yields and tight spreads challenge investors to remain disciplined, and contrasts that with the more attractive all-in yields that have emerged following the shift in rates since 2022.
The conversation next considers todayâs landscape. Here, Wayne walks through how the firm is positioning across liquid credit markets, highlighting areas such as residential mortgage-backed securities and shorter-duration, high-income instruments as ways to balance yield with risk control.
We close with a discussion on AI-driven dispersion, energy-driven uncertainty, and the importance of portfolio construction across geographies, sectors, and structures in navigating an increasingly complex environment.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Wayne Dahl.
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Welcome to Episode 250 of the Alpha Exchange. To celebrate the milestone, I asked my dear friend, Jon Kalikow, to host the conversation, switching seats and having me as the guest.
I launched the podcast in 2018 with a simple idea: to create space for long-form conversations that explore how market practitioners think about risk. Rather than focusing on predictions, the goal has always been to understand frameworksâhow investors process information, respond to uncertainty, evolve through cycles.
In this episode, we also explore some of my own thinking on risk. Here, I outline a simple framework built around four categories: economic, monetary, financial, and geopolitical. While distinct, these risks are deeply interconnected and understanding how they interact is critical in assessing market outcomes. Todayâs market dynamics are fascinating in this context.
We close the discussion with a look aheadâtoward expanding the Alpha Exchange platform through live events, educational initiatives, and continued conversations that emphasize intellectual honesty, humility, and the ongoing exchange of ideas. I feel as convicted as ever about the business model which aims to create value through engagement.
I hope you enjoy this episode and appreciate your ongoing support of the Alpha Exchange. -
The ârisk-freeâ rate figures prominently in how weâve all been taught the foundations of finance. To price a security, start with the asset that is the safest and soundest and then add compensation for bearing uncertainty. It has always been self-evident that the global risk-free benchmark was the Treasury market. Deep, liquid and viewed as default free, US government bonds have been the recipient of capital during times of stress.
And the reason is that the US has long been viewed as not just the worldâs strongest economy but also a stabilizing force in global affairs. In this discussion, and with the help of four recent expert guests on the Alpha exchange, I argue that this is changing and the US is now becoming a chief source of risk. In the process, the Treasury market may be losing one its most important characteristics: the insurance feature. That is, its capacity to be durable to and even benefit from market shocks. Weâve all got to be asking, âhow can US government bonds be a shock absorber when the US government is the source of the shock?â
The implications for asset prices that result from a less stable US are significant and there are important questions to consider. I hope you find this discussion useful.
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Kris Abdelmessih, author of the MoonTower Substack and founder of the options analytics firm MoonTower.ai., has spent years thinking about option pricing, volatility regimes, and the mental math traders use to translate volatility into price. In this context, it was great to welcome him back to the Alpha Exchange to explore his thought process.
We begin with developments in commodity markets, particularly crude oil, and silver, where geopolitical tension and speculative flows have led to sharp changes in volatility surfaces. Kris explains how option skew in underlyings like oil can reprice rapidly during shock events, leading to inverted termstructure and a well bid call skew. These dynamics create unusual behavior in vertical spreads and probabilities implied by option prices.
Kris describes how the relationship between spot moves and volatility changes across market environments, emphasizing that traders must continually recalibrate their models. What appears to be a stable relationshipâsuch as the familiar beta between the S&P 500 and the VIXâcan shift quickly depending on positioning and market structure.
A major focus of our conversation is on the mental math traders use to interpret option prices without relying on models. Kris walks through several shortcuts that allow traders to move quickly between volatility, straddle prices, and probability estimates. These approximations help traders identify when prices look unusual and whether options markets imply probabilities that diverge from other markets.
Finally, we discuss the work Kris is doing on financial education. Inspired by teaching his own children about investing and compounding, he has begun running small classes for students and sharing the materials publicly. The goal is simple: introduce younger investors to concepts like time value of money and long-term compounding earlier in life.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Kris Abdelmissih. -
As Chairman and CEO, Zach Buchwald leads Russell Investments, a firm overseeing $370bln in client assets and celebrating its 90th anniversary in providing portfolio management services to institutions and individuals.
Zach details the open-architecture model utilized at Russell, explaining how portfolios are constructed by combining best-of-breed managers and strategies across asset classes. He shares how these portfolios are managed through an outsourced chief investment officer framework, providing institutions with integrated portfolio construction, manager selection, and risk management.
A central theme in our discussion is retirement, a large focus at Russell on behalf of its client base. Zach highlights the long-term shift from defined benefit pensions to 401(k) plans, and the structural and behavioral challenges individuals face in saving for retirement and the growing responsibility they now bear in planning. We discuss the power of compounding, the importance of staying invested through market volatility, and the role that portfolio design can play in helping investors avoid costly behavioral mistakes.
While the 401(k) structure can work well when participants save early and remain invested, Zach notes that many Americans have not accumulated the assets necessary for retirement and that compounding requires both time and consistent exposure to the market.
Default investment options, diversified portfolios, and disciplined asset allocation can help individuals remain invested through periods of volatility and capture the long-term growth of capital markets.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Zach Buchwald. -
Amidst these very uncertain times in the economy, geopolitics, and asset prices, it was excellent to welcome Alberto Gallo, founder and CIO of Andromeda Capital Management, back to the Alpha Exchange.
Our conversation first considers the long arc of post-crisis monetary policy. Here, Alberto argues that extended quantitative easing, while stabilizing in the short run, carried structural side effects over timeâcapital misallocation, corporate consolidation, and widening inequality. He notes that central bank balance sheets remain large and that markets today send mixed signals: stability in rates and credit alongside strength in precious metals.
We then turn to Andromedaâs approach to finding value in credit markets. Alberto frames bonds as embedded short-volatility instruments and describes a strategy that seeks asymmetric gain-to-loss profiles, liquidity, and convexity. A major focus is the rapid expansion of private creditâfive-year lockups, high-single-digit returns achieved in benign conditions, sector concentration in technology, and insurer ownership structures. With spreads near multi-decade tights, he questions whether investors are adequately compensated for default, liquidity, and volatility risk.
We close on AI-driven capex, fiscal dominance, and elevated debt levels. Alberto frames the future as a distribution with meaningful tails and argues that current pricing reflects limited uncertainty at a moment of structural transition.
You can learn more about the firm at https://andromedainvestors.com/ -
With early exposure to Paul Tudor Jones and then stints on the sell-side in credit research, Michael Contopoulos is now Deputy CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, a macro-oriented asset manager overseeing roughly $20 billion across long-only portfolios. Our discussion centers on portfolio construction in an era of extreme equity concentration and shifting global leadership.
On the equity side, the firm is under-weight the most concentrated segments of U.S. equities and overweight international markets, citing valuation gaps, earnings acceleration abroad, and under-ownership by investors.
Using his background in quantitative credit strategy and a Merton framework for modeling spread risk, Michael brings a structural lens to todayâs corporate debt markets. Our conversation focuses on the surge in long-dated issuance tied to AI infrastructure build-outs. He argues that history rarely rewards lenders who finance capital-intensive growth booms at their peak.
Drawing parallels to late-1990s telecom boom, Michael questions whether investors are being adequately compensated for duration and technology risk embedded in 40- and 50-year debt issued by hyperscalers building data centers. The core concern is twofold: that AI-driven revenue gains may not justify the scale of investment, and that infrastructure built today may not remain technologically relevant decades from now.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Michael Contopoulos.
Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (â https://thepodcastconsultant.comâ )
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It was a pleasure to welcome Louis Gave, the Founding Partner and CEO of Gavekal, back to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion centers on what he describes as one of the most consequential and underappreciated macro developments today: the mispricingâand now the policy shiftâof the Chinese renminbi. Louis is quite bullish on China.
Louis argues that for much of the past decade, China has acted as a powerful deflationary force on the global economy. In response to US trade restrictions, Chinese policymakers redirected domestic savings away from real estate and toward industrial capacity. This dual dynamicâcollapsing real-estate activity alongside surging industrial investmentâproduced a deflationary impulse that many underestimated.
A central feature of this adjustment was a deliberately undervalued currency. Despite large trade surpluses, the renminbi remained weak even as inflation diverged sharply between China and the United States. Louise describes this as one of the clearest examples of a âwrong priceâ in global markets, particularly when measured against purchasing-power indicators such as housing, transportation, and services.
The discussion highlights a notable inflection point: the renminbi has recently begun to strengthen, signaling a shift in policy stance. According to Louis, this change has important implications for global asset prices. A strengthening currency in China alters incentives for capital deployment, challenges the appeal of holding US dollar cash, and reinforces broader reflationary trends already visible across commodities, yield curves, and financial assets.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Louis Gave.
Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (â https://thepodcastconsultant.comâ )
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It is busy time, to say the least, for Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO. Todayâs markets are grappling with vast uncertaintiesâŠin US fiscal policy, in Fed independence and leadership, in geopolitics, and in global trade. Libby is charged with helping both the clients and risk-takers of PIMCO better understand the implications of policy that is changing rapidly.
Through her conversations with institutional, retail, and international clients, she outlines how uncertainty around US policy has become a central driver of investor concern early in 2026. Our discussion highlights how recent geopolitical developments â including tensions with Europe, rhetoric around Greenland, and renewed trade disputes â have amplified questions around US credibility and global leadership.
Throughout the conversation, Libby frames the current environment as one in which policy volatility, rather than policy outcomes alone, is shaping investor behavior. Tariffs, fiscal deficits, and election-driven incentives have created a backdrop where markets must continuously reassess tail risks.
We explore the challenge of reigning in US entitlements. Here, she describes two potential forcing mechanisms: bond market pressure or looming entitlement shortfalls. While the so-called bond vigilantes have periodically re-emerged, she notes that market selloffs have thus far been contained, suggesting that investors continue to grant the U.S. substantial runway. At the same time, projected shortfalls in the Trust Fund later this decade represent a political and economic inflection point that may eventually compel action.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Libby Cantrill.Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (â https://thepodcastconsultant.comâ )
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Five years ago, on January 27th, 2021, the frenzied buying and speculation in Gamestop hit its apex. In this short podcast, I look back on one of the more fascinating, and dare I say, dangerous, risk events in modern day markets. The stock was subject to an outright speculative attack. But not the kind most CEOs complain about. This was not Soros taking down the British pound in 1992. This was a retail army of Reddit bandits whose buying power was nothing individually, but everything collectively. This was an attack not by a short seller, but against one. We learn a great deal about markets by studying periods when things run amuck. GME event is one of them, the most intense âstock up, vol upâ episode in memory.
Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (â https://thepodcastconsultant.comâ )
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It was a pleasure to welcome Alex Urdea, Founder and CIO of Deep Ocean Partners to the Alpha Exchange. Alex traces his career from credit derivatives trading at a large bank to a risk management function at a hedge fund focused on distressed investing to ultimately building an asset-backed private credit platform focused on smaller, less trafficked segments of the lending universe. The conversation centers on how regulatory changes following the Global Financial Crisis, prolonged periods of low interest rates, and shifting investor preferences have reshaped where and how credit risk is priced.
Alex describes how traditional public credit markets, including leveraged loans and high yield, have increasingly compressed spreads while loosening covenants, reducing compensation for bearing risk. In contrast, private credit has emerged as an alternative channel for borrowers unable to access bank balance sheets, particularly fast-growing businesses that are asset-rich but cash-flow constrained. He emphasizes that credit underwriting remains fundamentally about downside protection, liquidation value, and recovery â principles shaped by his experience in stress, distress, and complex capital structures.
A theme central to our discussion is the distinction between risk monitoring and risk management. Alex explains how Deep Ocean combines asset-backed lending with data connectivity and real-time monitoring to identify potential issues earlier in the life of a loan, rather than relying solely on periodic reporting or mark-to-market signals. The conversation also explores how macro forces â including rate shocks, tariffs, and supply-chain disruptions â can impose themselves even on carefully underwritten credits, reinforcing the importance of portfolio construction and diversification.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Alex Urdea.
Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (â https://thepodcastconsultant.comâ )
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Todayâs market landscape is defined by extremes that challenge conventional portfolio construction. A small group of mega-cap stocks now represents an unprecedented share of index weight, profit generation, and capital spending, raising important questions about valuation, diversification, and risk concentration.
With this in mind, it was great to have Andrew Lapthorne, Global Head of Quantitative Research at SociĂ©tĂ© GĂ©nĂ©rale, back on the Alpha Exchange. Drawing on long-run valuation distributions and profitability data, Andrew examines whether todayâs market qualifies as a valuation bubble, not through narratives, but through measurable historical comparisons. His analysis highlights that while headline index multiples appear defensible due to strong profits among a narrow group of companies, the average stock is more expensive than during prior bubble periods, including the late-1990s technology cycle.
Our discussion also examines how passive investing and benchmark constraints have altered market behavior. With capital increasingly flowing through index vehicles, Andrew argues that valuation changes now affect entire indices rather than discrete groups of stocks, limiting opportunities for rotation into âcheapâ segments. This dynamic has substantially increased tracking error for active managers and reinforced concentration, even among investors who recognize valuation risk but remain bound to benchmark exposure.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Andrew Lapthorne.
Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (â https://thepodcastconsultant.comâ )
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As I share my closing thoughts on 2025, I want to look back with an eye towards pointing out this yearâs unique characteristics from a market risk perspective. I start this exercise by highlighting what I consider to be 2025âs three most interesting days from a vol and risk perspective: 1) the April 7th roller-coaster in the VIX 2) the September 10th surge in ORCL and 3) the October 21st melt-down in the GLD. Each of these helps us better understand some of the forces at work in todayâs market. Next, I explore two important themes and their implications. First, the âstock up, vol upâ dynamic that is increasingly common among stocks, even mega-caps. Here, the market assigns a higher implied volatility when pricing options on stocks that have often surged in value. It speaks to FOMO and a winner-take-all notion in which stocks are often treated as options. Second, I discuss the incredibly low level of both realized and implied correlation among stocks in the SPX. I consider this a risk hiding in plain sight and something that may be leading investors to underestimate the true level of risk they are taking.
I thank you for being a listener this year and wish you a fantastic 2026. -
It was a pleasure to welcome Ian Harnett, co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist at Absolute Strategy Research, to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion explores how long periods of low volatility and abundant liquidity can quietly allow systemic risks to accumulate outside the traditional banking system.
Drawing on lessons from the Global Financial Crisis, Ian explains why todayâs financial systemânow dominated by non-banks rather than banksârequires a different risk framework. While post-GFC regulation focused on large banks and insurers, much of the systemâs leverage and liquidity transformation has migrated toward pension funds, private equity, insurance companies, and private credit vehicles. In the U.S. alone, roughly three-quarters of private-sector financial assets are now controlled by non-banks, reshaping how shocks can propagate through markets. A key theme of the discussion is that systemic risk is multiplicative rather than additive.
Ian argues that past crises were often triggered not by the largest institutions, but by smaller nodes in the system that proved critical once stress emerged. Today, he highlights the growing role of private-equity-backed insurers, which tend to hold riskier assets, maintain lower capital buffers, and allocate more heavily to private creditâan area that remains largely illiquid and difficult to mark to market. Ianâs work emphasizes cash flow as a central lens for assessing vulnerability.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Ian Harnett.
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Kumaran Vijayakumar has spent his career in the equity derivatives market, first as an exotics trader and later in running large risk-taking desks in listed and OTC options. Now, the CEO of DataDock Solutions, a firm he Co-Founded in 2018, Kumaran and his team are developing analytical tools that allow sell-side flow desks to better understand the risks they take and clients they take it for. Our discussion explores the challenges inherent in evaluating client flow, and how data-centric infrastructure has changed the way risk is assessed.
With the premise that âwhat you can measure you can manage and improveâ, we discuss DataDockâs efforts to build tools capable of ingesting large-scale trade history and simulating outcomes at the most granular level. In equity derivatives, where trades move quickly and visibility is often instantaneous, desks have historically made decisions based on memory and anecdotal assessments of âgoodâ versus âbadâ flow. Kumaran describes this as a space where information is abundant, but structured insight often lags execution speed.
Our discussion highlights a key theme: not all flow that loses money is detrimental, and not all flow that is profitable is necessarily strategic. Instead, Kumaran notes that client value emerges when one analyzes trade behavior across time, including delta hedge quality, volume risk transfer, roll probability, expected event-driven distribution, and the role of flow as portfolio offset rather than standalone P&L.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Kumaran Vijayakumar.
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