Afleveringen
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This week, our guest is the Honourable Christy Clark, the 35th Premier of British Columbia and Canadaâs longest-serving female Premier. Christy Clark is currently a Senior Advisor for Bennett Jones LLP.
Politics is top of mind for energy decision-makers with the upcoming US election, Canadian federal by-elections, the possibility of an early federal election in Canada, and a provincial election next month in Christy Clarkâs home province of British Columbia.
Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Christy Clark:
Are you surprised that the NDP has been slipping in the polls in BC? Explain the BC United Party (former BC Liberal Party) recently folding into the Conservative Party of BC. Is there potential for the provincial Conservative Party to win in BC next month? Is climate change still an important issue for BC voters? You worked to get BCâs LNG industry started, with over 15 potential projects expected at one point; what is your view on the industry now? Is more electrical generation capacity needed to meet future demand, besides the Site C hydro dam? Now that it has started, how do people feel about the Trans Mountain expansion oil pipeline? With the federal NDP ripping up their agreement to cooperate with the Liberals, do you expect the federal election will occur sooner than October 2025? What are the chances that Justin Trudeau will withdraw from the federal Liberal leadership before the election? Do you have any federal political aspirations?
Content referenced in this podcast:
Current polling of BC provincial election at 388canada.comPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/
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This week, our guest is Rob West, founder and CEO of Thunder Said Energy. Founded in 2019, the research firm aims to help decision-makers find economic opportunities in the energy transition. Rob lives nine time zones away in Estonia and is an uber-productive energy expert who covers a wide range of topics in his consultancy.
Rob explains why he hates S-curves, since they are often used to assume future growth rates for new energy technologies instead of properly analyzing what is realistic.
Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rob: What do you think of the recent sell-off of clean energy stocks and the reasons behind some company failures? How much do you think the electricity demand will grow due to AI? Will there be investment in new natural gas-fired generation to meet this demand growth, despite the concerns about carbon emissions? Why do you think solar is the most important energy source in the world? Why do you see power grids as the biggest bottleneck in the energy transition? Do you think naturally found hydrogen in the earthâs subsurface, also called âgold hydrogen,â could be the next âgold rushâ?
Thunder Said Energy website, see past research notes and sign up for daily email: https://thundersaidenergy.com/ FT article âMore cleantech companies fail as fundraising challenges emerge (ft.com),â September 2, 2024
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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So long summer! Peter and Jackie are back in the studio and are discussing the energy news from the past few months.
They kick off the podcast by discussing political developments in the United States and Canada. Then, they examine the drop in clean energy stocks over the summer and the weaker market sentiment, including the rapid decline in BC's low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit price. Lastly, they discuss the low prices for natural gas in Alberta, which averaged only $C 0.60/GJ in August.
McKinsey and Company âThe Energy Transition: Where are we, reallyâ (August 27, 2024) Canary Media âUS Clean Energy Investment is Soaring Thanks to Climate Lawâ (August 16 2024) and Clean Investment Monitor: Q2 Update BC Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) price history, scroll to the Credit Market Data Section to download. ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050 (August 2024)
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This week, we are joined by Nancy Southern, Chair & Chief Executive Officer of ATCO Ltd., and Chair & Chief Executive Officer of Canadian Utilities Limited, an ATCO Company. ATCO is a publicly traded company that offers innovative and sustainable solutions to customers in various sectors, such as housing, real estate, energy, water, transportation, and agriculture.
Canadian Governmentâs Clean Fuel Regulations Credit Market Report (June 2024)
Under Nancy's leadership, ATCO is growing the EnPower division, which focuses on energy transition and includes hydrogen, CCS, water, energy storage, solar, wind, and hydro.
Peter and Jackie asked Nancy: How did ATCO start and what are the business lines today? How do you continue your father's legacy and the corporate culture he established? Tell us about your Alberta hydrogen project and the potential for exporting hydrogen to Asia. Update us on ATCOâs recent final investment decision (FID) on the Atlas Carbon Storage Hub in partnership with Shell. What are your views on the federal government's proposed Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) to achieve net zero electricity by 2035? What is your perspective on Alberta's proposed changes to renewable power development, electricity markets, and transmission costs?
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This week, on our Calgary Stampede podcast edition, our guest is Avik Dey, President and Chief Executive Officer of Capital Power. Capital Power is a publicly traded North American power producer headquartered in Edmonton, Alberta. Capital Power owns renewable and thermal power generation facilities, totaling over 9 GW of power generation capacity across 32 facilities.
Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Avik: Is it possible to deliver clean, reliable, and affordable electricity? Does Capital Power currently generate any electricity from coal? Do you expect small modular reactors (SMRs) to be built in Alberta in the future? Texas generates a greater share of its electricity from renewables than Alberta, yet Alberta is hitting the brakes on renewable development â how is Texas managing the increase in renewables, and what can Alberta learn? Are you concerned by the potential for rapid growth in electricity demand to fuel AI data centers in Alberta? Why did Capital Power recently cancel its proposed $2.4 billion Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Genesee project in Alberta? Considering the draft Clean Electricity Regulations, would you still invest in new natural gas generation in Canada? Any comments on Quebecâs plan to build and operate large-scale renewable projects in the province versus procuring the power from independent power producers?
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On June 20, 2024, Bill C-59 received Royal Assent and officially became law, implementing its provisions into Canadian legislation. The Bill, along with Bill C-69, which was passed on the same day, introduced new subsidies to encourage investment in clean energy in Canada. Bill C-59 established the Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Tax Credit. Bill C-69 created the Federal Indigenous Loan Guarantee, the Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit, and the Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit.
Oslerâs detailed multi-part guide on the Competition Act amendments, with a specific section on deceptive marketing practices and greenwashing, here. Text of Bill C-59, see 74.01 (1), including (b.1) and (b.2) Form to provide feedback to the Competition Bureau on the amendments to the Act Kevin Krausert opinion âOttawaâs anti-greenwashing bill will cripple cleantech innovationâ (June 20, 2024)
However, the positive impact of these new subsidies was overshadowed by the greenwashing regulations added late in the process for Bill C-59. The new greenwashing rules amend the Competition Act to require that claims made by companies about environmental, ecological, or climate change benefits can be verified. Because of the ambiguity of what is needed to comply with the rules, many energy companies have deleted all GHG emissions and other sustainability content from their websites, including annual sustainability reports and commitments to improve environmental performance in the future.
This week on the podcast, our guest, Kaeleigh Kuzma, a Partner at Osler in the Competition, Trade, and Foreign Investment Group, explained the new greenwashing rules.
Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Kaeleigh: Why is greenwashing included in the Competition Act? Can you explain the provisions? What does âproper substantiation in accordance with internationally recognized methodologyâ mean? Why are the rules so vague, and what is the process for clarity? Do these rules only affect oil and gas and other heavy-emitting companies, or do they also apply to clean energy companies? What is the process for filing a complaint against a company to the Competition Bureau? What are the methods of enforcement?
Other content referenced in this podcast:
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This week on the podcast, our guest is Stephen Poloz, former Governor of the Bank of Canada, Author, Special Advisor at Osler, and recently appointed by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to lead a working group to explore how to catalyze greater domestic investments by Canadaâs pension funds.
This is Stephen's second appearance on the podcast. The first was in 2022 after he released his book The Next Age of Uncertainty.
Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Stephen: What precipitated the thesis that Canadian pensioners are better off with more investment in Canada? What can you say about the pension investment working group, the deliverable you are working towards, and the potential timing? Why has inflation been so persistent in Canada and globally? What are your expectations for Canadian interest rate announcements in the future? Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, recently said in a speech, it's time to âbreak the glassâ and respond to Canada's productivity âemergencyâ â do you agree that productivity is an emergency? How important is free trade with the United States for Canadaâs economy? What are your thoughts on the Canadian government committing tens of billions of dollars to support the EV sector in Canada? Are you concerned about Canadaâs ongoing deficit budgets and growing debt levels?
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This week, our guest is David Hobbs, Executive Chairman of Pantheon Resources PLC and Chairman of Proton Green LLC. David has an extensive background in energy research, having served as Head of Research at King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research (KAPSARC) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and as Chief Energy Strategist at IHS CERA (now part of S&P Global Commodities Insights).
Remarkable digital notepad Roger Pielke Jr. from the University of Colorado Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba
The podcast is a new game-style format this week, where Jackie and David engaged in a lively debate on some of the big issues in energy, with Peter as the moderator. Some topics they discussed include: How would a second Trump presidency affect NATO's future? How do the US presidential candidates differ in terms of energy policy? When is the end of oil? How would a Pierre Poilievre-led Conservative Party of Canada alter energy policy in Canada? How are the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts impacting the oil market? How will AI impact the future of energy? What will be the next acronym after ESG? Should any change be expected as the UN Climate meetings mark the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement?
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According to the IEA, heat accounts for almost half of final global energy consumption, with approximately two-thirds currently sourced from hydrocarbons. Net zero energy scenarios anticipate that heating can be predominantly electrified.
In pursuit of lower-carbon buildings, high-efficiency air-source heat pumps offer a promising decarbonization and energy reduction solution. Further, the Canadian federal government and some provinces support the transition to air-source heat pumps by subsidizing their purchases.
In this episode, Jackie and Peter review the ARC Energy Research Instituteâs analysis of heat pumps for northern climates like Canada. Danielle Vitoff, Director of Energy Transition, Sustainability, and Infrastructure at Guidehouse, a global consulting firm, joins the discussion.Key questions covered in this podcast include: How do air-source heat pumps operate, and what makes them so efficient? Why does the efficiency of a heat pump decline in colder temperatures? How do heat pumps' upfront capital and operating costs compare to alternatives like natural gas or fuel oil furnaces? How could broad-scale switching to electric heat pumps affect the electricity grid? Considering the cold climate, are air-source heat pumps a good fit for Canada?
CAPP Data Centre US residential heat pumps: the private economic potential and its emissions, health, and grid impacts (Source: US Department of Energy) Pathways for British Columbia to Achieve its GHG Reduction Goals (Source: Guidehouse, prepared for Fortis BC)
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This week, our guest is Jennifer Williams, President and CEO of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro. Hydro manages Newfoundland and Labradorâs electricity system, generating and transmitting most of the province's electricity, and exporting electricity to other parts of Canada and the United States.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) commissioned a report on the economic impact of the federal governmentâs proposed oil gas emissions cap on the conventional oil and gas industry Muskrat Falls Inquiry Website Supreme Court of Canada Judgment: Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corp. v. HydroâQuĂ©bec
Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro operates several hydroelectric plants, including the Churchill Falls Generation Station in Labrador, which has a capacity of nearly 5,500 MW and is among the top ten hydro dams in the world outside of China. The utility has also recently commissioned Muskrat Falls, with a capacity of 824 MW.
Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Jennifer: What percentage of the electricity generated in the province is exported? Is Muskrat Falls operating at full capacity now, including the undersea transmission lines? What were some of the reasons for the high cost of Muskrat Falls? Can you discuss Churchill Falls, the technical achievement of building the project, and the contract that set a low power price for 70 years? How much potential is there to develop additional generation in the province? Do you anticipate green hydrogen projects operating in the region? From your perspective, why was the Atlantic Loop transmission project scaled back? Are you concerned about the draft Clean Electricity Regulations legislation, which proposes net- zero electricity by 2035?
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Despite frequent pronouncements that the world should stop using coal, it still consumes vast amounts of black rocks. According to the Energy Instituteâs Statistical Review of World Energy, coal's global primary energy consumption was about 15% above natural gas in 2022 and only 15% lower than crude oil.
Coal consumption has yet to decline. Instead, coal use has plateaued for the better part of the last decade. Because of its carbon intensity and large consumption, Peter and Jackie describe coal as the âherd of elephantsâ in the room for meeting aggressive decarbonization and climate goals under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
This week, our guest is Lara Dong, Senior Director, Global Coal Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights. Lara explains why coal demand has been resilient and what to expect in the future.
Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Lara: Is coal consumption expected to stay strong? Why is China still building new coal power plants? How does this compare to clean electricity additions in China, including wind, solar, and hydro? Is there still ongoing new investment in coal mines to add supply? Why was 2021 a pivotal year for Chinese energy policy? How did the 2022 energy crisis impact Chinaâs and Indiaâs energy policy for coal? Do you think the IEA Net Zero scenario, which assumes a 90% drop in coal consumption by 2050, is likely? If Canada were to increase its LNG exports to Asia, would this decrease coal consumption (and greenhouse gas emissions) in the region?
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This week, our guest is Dawn Farrell, President and CEO of Trans Mountain Corporation. On May 1, 2024, the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) started commercial operations. Over a decade in the making, this milestone is a huge accomplishment. Originally built in 1953, the expansion project triples the pipeline's capacity from 300,000 to 890,000 B/d.
Trevor Tombe: The Trans Mountain pipeline was worth every penny of its $34 billion price tag (April 30, 2024)
This significant expansion of Canada's only oil pipeline to the West Coast comes at an important time since Canadian production was expected to hit the limits of the existing pipeline system later this year. The expansion will allow Canadian crude oil to access new markets in California and Asia, and it is expected to lift oil prices by increasing the number of buyers for Canadian oil.
The TMEP is not without controversy, given its high cost (currently estimated at $C 34 billion compared with $C 7.4 billion in 2017), opposition to the pipeline in some areas of British Columbia, and the Federal government's purchase of the project in 2018.
Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Dawn: Tell us about the pipeline operations currently, has Alberta crude oil reached the dock in Burnaby, British Columbia? What are the logistics, operations, and safety precautions for moving the Aframax tankers from the Burnaby Terminal to the open ocean? What is the importance of this pipeline to Canada? What are some of the factors that contributed to the high costs? What is the process and timing for the current regulatory hearing that could change the tolls?
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This week our guest is Doug Hooper, Director of Policy and Regulations at Advanced Biofuels Canada. Advanced Biofuels Canada is an industry association that promotes the production and use of biofuels and renewable synthetic fuels.
The annual report from Navius Research called âBiofuels in Canada 2023â
One of the topics covered in the podcast is Canadaâs Clean Fuels Regulation (CFR). The policy is nearing its first anniversary after coming into effect on July 1, 2023 (Canada Day). The rule requires Canadian refiners and fuel importers to reduce the carbon intensity of the gasoline and diesel sold by about 2% annually between 2023 and 2030. By 2030, under the rule, Canada's average gasoline and diesel fuel will be 15% less carbon intensive. Biofuels will be a major compliance source for the new rule; emissions reductions are also expected in upstream oil and gas (for domestically consumed oil) and alternative transportation fuels, such as hydrogen and electricity.
The conversation considered Canadian competitiveness with the United States for liquid biofuel production. Doug explained how the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 put a chill on investing in biofuel production facilities in Canada. The recent Canadian Federal Budget 2024 introduced some new measures to help close the gap, but will this be enough?
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Jackie and Peter provide an update on ESG this week on the podcast. Has the anti-ESG movement started to change companies' reporting and actions? To answer this question, they reviewed some articles and research that point to the recent loss of momentum and profile for the ESG movement. There have also been examples of companies exiting sustainability-focused organizations. While sustainability may have peaked in these regards, it is not going away. Companies continue to report on their sustainability performance and set goals for improvement. Mitigating and monitoring the risk associated with ESG-related issues is also important.
Nat Bullard's website and 200-page annual slide deck Catalyst w/ Shayle Kann podcast with Nat Bullard: 2024 trends, part 2: ESG, carbon certifications, curtailment, and AI (February 2024) The Wall Street Journal: Diversity goals are disappearing from companiesâ annual reports (April 2024) GreenBiz: Microsoft, P&G, Unilever, and Walmart among 239 companies to miss net-zero deadline (March 2024) Globe and Mail: Emissions standards group roiled by controversy after opening door to offsets (April 2024) Financial Times: Two pension funds quit Mark Carneyâs green alliance (September 2022) Bank of America reneged on a commitment to stop financing new coal mines and coal power plants (February 2024)
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The 2024 Canadian Federal Budget was released on April 16th. This yearâs budget is focused on affordability, housing, and spending on social programs such as pharmaceutical care, daycare, and dentist care.
Peter and Jackie discuss the budget, including the size of the deficit and the planned increase in capital gains taxes. They also cover energy-related updates from the budget, such as changes to investment tax credit programs (ITCs), adjustments to the green home subsidy, and the announcement of an Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program. They also mention that the Canada Growth Fund, which has pledged $7 billion to carbon markets, now aims to provide more off-the-shelf support for decarbonization projects while continuing to support bespoke opportunities. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) also plans to collaborate with provinces to improve carbon markets. The budget includes commitments to develop guidelines for investing in green and decarbonization projects (called a taxonomy); it also encourages Canadian pension funds to invest more in Canada, with a working group set up to explore this further.Content referenced in this episode:
Canada Budget 2024 RBC Report on if Canada's AAA credit rating is at riskTrevor Tombe: Why Raising Capital Gains Taxes Make Sense - Yes, Really (April 17, 2024, The Hub) Senior Business Leaders Support Proposal Asking Pension Funds to Invest More in Canada (March 6, 2024, Globe and Mail) Canada Energy Transition Taxonomy Roadmap (September 2022) by the Sustainable Finance Action Council (SFAC). Note that SFAC has submitted this roadmap, and it is not the official position of the Government of Canada.Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/
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The threat of a wider Middle East war is increasing. Over the past weekend, Iran attacked Israel with missiles and drones in retaliation for Israelâs suspected strike on Iran's embassy in Syria. This week, our guest, Raoul LeBlanc, Vice President, Energy, S&P Global Commodity Insights, explains why oil prices have increased over the past few months, including the impact of the growing conflict in the Middle East, OPEC+, and US shale oil growth.
Jackie and Peter also asked Raoul about recent research by Prof. Robert Howarth from Cornell University. The paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, concludes that US LNG could be comparable to, or even worse than, coal from a GHG emissions perspective when methane leaking is considered. A BNN article reported that Howarthâs paper influenced President Bidenâs pause on LNG approvals.
Finally, Raoul explains the drivers for US oil and gas producers' recent mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and if this trend could come to Canada.
Content referenced in this podcast:
How One Scientist Influenced Bidenâs Pause on LNG Approvals (BNN Bloomberg, Feb 29, 2024) The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Exported from the United States by Robert W. Howarth, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University (version is not final and it is currently in a peer review process; original version submitted October 2023, revised version submitted March 2024)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/
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This week on the podcast, our guest is Rebecca Lindland, Senior Director of Industry Data and Insights at Cars Commerce. Cars Commerce has a platform to simplify the next generation of automotive retail, including Cars.com, AccuTrade, Dealer Inspire, and coming soon, Cars Commerce Media Network.
Rebecca is a highly respected expert in the automotive industry. She shares her views on the rise of plug-in hybrids, the recent headwinds for pure electric cars, and new auto technology.
Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rebecca: How is the auto industry doing now, and is it generally profitable? Explain the difference between pure-electric, plug-in hybrid, and traditional hybrids. Why are sales of hybrid vehicles increasing in the US? Do the new US EPA auto rules for increasing electric technology include hybrids? Is the higher price of plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles a barrier to sales? Why are Teslaâs sales slowing? Explain BYD's success in 2023 and if they could come to North America. Do you think solid-state batteries, if they become available, will increase EV adoption rates? Are self-driving electric cars just delayed, or are they no longer likely?Other content referenced in this podcast:
NYT article from January 2024: âHybrid Cars Enjoy a Renaissance and All Electric Sales Slowâ Artist of Rebeccaâs office car art: Lyn Hiner StudioPlease review our disclaimer at:âŻhttps://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/âŻâŻ
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This week our podcast guest is Rachel Walsh, Environmental Commodities Strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rachel: Is the hefty Canadian emitter carbon tax starting to impact competitiveness? Is the carbon levy causing industrial emitters to invest in reducing their emissions? Canada and Alberta have introduced incentives to reduce the capital cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. Are these incentives enough to kick-start the industry? Are the contracts-for-difference that guarantee a carbon price for industrial emitters over a decade or more required for investment in large decarbonization projects? The Canada Growth Fund has set aside about $7 billion for contracts-for-difference; how much carbon do you think that will mitigate? The voluntary markets have struggled with credibility issues; do you expect this will improve and prices will increase? Could strong voluntary markets reduce the risk of investing in Canadian compliance markets since they offer an alternative way to monetize the carbon credits?
Content referenced on this podcast:
Clean Prosperity CanadaICE has introduced two futures markets for Alberta Carbon Credits: Alberta Emission Offset and Alberta Emission Performance CreditsPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/
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Recently, Alberta announced significant changes to its power market: short-term changes to stop economic withholding and a long-term redesign of Albertaâs deregulated electricity market into a restructured energy market (REM).
This week, our guest, Blake Shaffer, Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary, helps us understand these changes.
Here are some questions Jackie and Peter asked Blake: Why does Alberta need a market redesign? Was the near-brownout during a frigid weekend in January a sign that the current system is not working? What is âeconomic withholdingâ and how does it contribute to higher prices? The REM is expected to have a âday-ahead market,â how does that work? The REM could also have a wide pricing range, from negative prices to ones that exceed the current maximum of $999/MWh. What is the benefit of a wide price range? Do the proposed changes hurt renewable power projects? The REM is also considering changes to transmission; how significant could these changes be? Will the REM changes negatively impact entities that contracted power under the existing rules? What are your views on the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) legislation, that aims to make Canadaâs electricity sector net zero by 2035?
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Peter is back from a one-week whirlwind trip to the UK where he was a guest on a government-hosted tour titled âEnergy Commentators Mission.â During his visit, he met people working on the UK energy transition, including with offshore wind, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and refining.
Andrew Rodden, Energy Transition Zone Ltd. Pilar Amieva, X-Academy Allan MacAskill, Flotation Energy plc Jeff Richardson, Fugro Kieran Morton, Port of Aberdeen Thomas Nicoll, SSEN Transmission Emily Taylor, Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) Jonathan Turner, British Consul General, Calgary, Canada Tiffany Langford, Senior Climate Policy Advisor, British High Commission based in Calgary Marla Orenstein, Canada West Foundation
Tune in to this weekâs podcast to hear about Peterâs trip and takeaways, including interviews with some of the people he met in his travels. We hear from:Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/
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