Afleveringen
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Among the surprise results in this year’s American election: a victorious Donald Trump improving his numbers among Latino voters to a level not seen in 20 years and George W. Bush’s re-election (the only other time this century that the Republican choice won the popular vote). David Leal, a Hoover Institution adjunct senior fellow and University of Texas-Austin professor of government specializing in American demographic changes, discusses why Latino voters turned Trump’s way, how 2024’s inroad impacts the idea of demography as destiny ( i.e., a growing minority population working to the Democrats’ advantage), plus Texas returning to its redder self despite talk of newcomers from other states making the Lone Star State more competitive.
Recorded on November 20, 2024.
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The verdict on California’s November election? America’s largest “blue” state emerged black-and-blue as voters sent bruising, non-progressive messages regarding public safety, wage increases, and future approval of local bonds. Hoover senior fellow Lee Ohanian and distinguished policy fellow Bill Whalen, both contributors to Hoover’s California on Your Mind web channel, join Hoover senior product manager Jonathan Movroydis to discuss the latest in the Golden State, including the political futures of vice president Kamala Harris and governor Gavin Newson (does she want his job?). They also discuss a special legislative session to “Trump-proof” the Golden State, plus the remote likelihood of Sacramento and Washington cooperating on changes to federal immigration policy.
Recorded on November 20, 2024.
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By most metrics – a 16% job-approval rating, failing to deliver budgets much less conducting itself in a stately manner – the U.S. House of Representatives isn’t living up to the Founding Fathers’ ideals. How to restore the public’s confidence in the ways of Capitol Hill? Brandice Canes-Wrone, the Hoover Institution’s Maurice R. Greenberg senior fellow and the founding director of Hoover’s Center for Revitalizing American Institutions, joins former Illinois congressman and Hoover distinguished fellow Daniel Lipinski to discuss Revitalizing the House: Bipartisan Recommendations on Rules and Process – suggested ways to re-empower House members and committees and restore some semblance of the democratic process.
Recorded on November 12, 2024.
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And so the great election meltdown that was supposed to happen didn’t – across America this week, tens of millions of voters going about their business in a seemingly orderly fashion, with a decisive outcome favoring one presidential candidate and his party.
In this, the third of a four-part series on election integrity, Ben Ginsberg, the Hoover Institution’s Volker Distinguished Visiting Fellow and a preeminent authority on election law, joins Hoover distinguished policy fellow Bill Whalen to discuss how voting played out on Election Day in America – results that surprised Ben, how different systems and vote-counting processes held up in battleground states, plus what election reforms a new Congress might want to pursue in 2025 (translation: requiring identification, greater uniformity and addressing non-citizen voting).
Recorded on November 7, 2024
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What to expect in a California election that shows some prominent big-city incumbents in trouble and an anti-crime ballot measure steamrolling to victory?
As Election Day approaches, Hoover senior fellow Lee Ohanian and distinguished policy fellow Bill Whalen, both contributors to Hoover’s California on Your Mind web channel, join Hoover senior product manager Jonathan Movroydis to discuss the latest in the Golden State including the spectacle of government-envisioned “tiny houses” with not-so-tiny costs. They also discuss what a non-endorsement in the presidential race says about the troubled state of the state’s once-mightiest newspaper, and how Governor Gavin Newsom can move forward in 2025, depending on who becomes America’s 47th president.
Recorded on October 31, 2024.
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Justin Grimmer, a Hoover Institution senior fellow and Stanford University political scientist, joins Ben Ginsberg, the Hoover Institution’s Volker Distinguished Visiting Fellow and a preeminent authority on election law, to discuss what the former’s visit to Coos County, Oregon, revealed about trust in the election process and the challenges involved in debunking election-integrity myths. Their suggestions for curbing skepticism: losing candidates admitting defeat, encouraging the public to look “under the hood” at how elections are administered, and encouraging early voting to minimize dramatic vote swings after Election Day. Also discussed: the impact (or lack thereof) of voter-identification laws and reduced early-voting windows on turnout this fall.
Recorded on October 28, 2024
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Wednesday, October 16, 2024 - 56 min listenHoover Institution | Stanford University
Like a storm headed to America’s shores, the November forecast calls for the sound and fury of a contentious election that challenges the public’s trust in democracy. Ben Ginsberg, the Hoover Institution’s Volker Distinguished Visiting Fellow is a preeminent authority on election law. Ginsberg revives his Saints, Sinners And Salvageables podcast series from two years ago with this kickoff installment examining whether battleground states are better prepared this election cycle than in recent election cycles, plus Ginsberg explores possible legal challenges that might happen before, during, and after the vote-count.
Recorded on October 14, 2024.
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Why did the “best and brightest” of the Kennedy and Johnson administrations continue with a flawed Vietnam strategy despite years of wargaming simulations warning that there were no good outcomes for American involvement? Jacquelyn Schneider, the Hoover Institution’s Hargrove Hoover Fellow and director of Hoover’s Wargaming and Crisis Simulation Initiative, discusses the role of the 1960’s “SIGMA Games” in deciding Southeast Asia options, how wargaming influenced America Cold War strategy, its use in making sense of present-day enigmas (China, Russia), plus the challenges in playing out scenarios in the “final frontier” that is outer space.
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Who are the winners and losers now that California Governor Gavin Newsom has signed off on hundreds of legislative bills? Hoover senior fellow Lee Ohanian and distinguished policy fellow Bill Whalen, both contributors to Hoover’s California on Your Mind web channel, join Hoover senior product manager Jonathan Movroydis to discuss why the past month in Sacramento was good news for teen-abuse victim Paris Hilton (Newsom signed a bill she championed) and Los Angeles Clipper’s owner Steve Ballmer (his new arena received a late-night alcohol exception); and bad news for Elon Musk (he didn’t get his way on a controversial AI measure as his social-media feud with the governor continues). Possibly the worst news is for Californians fond of direct democracy and election integrity (Newsom vetoed a voter ID requirement). Then, the legislature approved a constitutional amendment altering California’s recall process which voters will decide on in 2026.
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Is the current presidential election lining up along the same lines as the past two Trump referenda with a small number of swing states and an even smaller subset of issues (in 2024: jobs, inflation, immigration, and wars) deciding who will become America’s 47th president?
David Brady and Douglas Rivers, Hoover Institution senior fellows and managers of a tracking poll on the US electorate, discuss what’s different in a contest featuring known (Donald Trump) and lesser known (Kamala Harris) entities, what matters most to independent voters, the odds of one or both chambers of Congress flipping, plus whether Pennsylvania is the “new Florida” as ground zero for deciding presidential outcomes.
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Since the founding of the republic, America’s leaders have pondered the question of federalism and the proper divide between national and local government regarding such thorny matters as infrastructure, healthcare financing, and education. Michael Boskin, the Hoover Institution’s Wohlford Family Senior Fellow and former chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, discusses American Federalism Today: Perspectives on Political and Economic Governance, a newly released book he edited based on the findings from a November 2023 Hoover conference on federalism. Boskin explains the urgent need for policy reforms (government waste in particular), plus what makes for effective government commissions (Boskin chaired a federal commission on the Consumer Price Index in the mid-1990’s).
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The Democratic National Convention turns out to be a tale of two Californians – Vice President Kamala Harris becoming her party’s standard-bearer; Governor Gavin Newsom left out of the speakers’ lineup (other than a two-minute cameo during the roll-call vote).
Hoover senior fellow Lee Ohanian and distinguished policy fellow Bill Whalen, both contributors to Hoover’s California on Your Mind web channel, join Hoover senior product manager Jonathan Movroydis to discuss in the Golden State including Harris and Newsom’s reversals of fortune, the Golden State’s struggles with job-retention, plus whether a Harris presidency can succeed where a Newsom governorship seems destined to fail (she wants to build three million new homes nationally in her first term; Newsom is far behind on his downsized goal of 2.5 million new California homes by the decade’s end).
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As Kamala Harris attempts to succeed where fellow Californian Richard Nixon fell short in 1960 – win the White House as a sitting vice president amidst a complicated economy – she takes a page from the Nixon presidency and wades into what government can do about the high cost of goods and services (specifically, food prices). Economist David Henderson, a Hoover Institution fellow and a I Blog to Differ commentator, explains what Nixon attempted a half-century ago and what Harris suggested in her pre-convention economics address. Henderson also explains the difference between price controls and curbing price-gouging plus the economic consequences of the federal government imposing its will on the free market.
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For the past two weeks, after Hezbollah rockets struck a Golan Heights town and Israel forces retaliated with strikes on targets in Beirut and Tehran, the world is bracing for further violence in the Middle East, fearing the conflict will escalate into a regional war. Meanwhile, the Biden Administration presses for a cease-fire agreement in Gaza.
Hoover Institution fellow Cole Bunzel, who studies history and contemporary affairs of the Islamic Middle East, makes sense of Iran’s retaliatory timeline, discusses Israel’s options both militarily and diplomatically, and notes that a lame-duck American president (again) is trying to broker a Middle East peace arrangement amidst an election year; plus the prospects of a “mega” deal involving a US-Saudi bilateral treaty, Saudi-Israeli normalization, and possibly a road to Palestinian statehood.
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On August 10, celebrants will gather in West Branch, Iowa – Herbert Hoover’s birthplace, resting place, and home to his presidential library and museum – to celebrate the great man’s 150th birthday. Hoover biographer George Nash, who’ll be part of a panel discussion that day, discusses a remarkable 90-year life journey that took America’s future president from a nascent Stanford University to international mining ventures, to famine relief in Western Europe and the Soviet Union, and a post-presidency devoted to political philosophy and a “crusade against collectivism.” Nash also discusses Hoover’s sometimes complicated relationship with seven American presidents over the last 50 years of his life – and, along the way, finding time to establish an institution that bears his surname.
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For the first time in 40 years, a Californian is set to become a major party’s presidential nominee. Meanwhile, governor Gavin Newsom issues an order to remove homeless encampments from city streets and continues to push back against critics of California’s $20 minimum wage for fast-food workers who claim that the new standard is a job-killer. Hoover senior fellow Lee Ohanian and distinguished policy fellow Bill Whalen, both contributors to Hoover’s California on Your Mind web channel, discuss the Golden State including why vice president Kamala Harris’ ascent to the top of the Democratic presidential ticket upsets the political order in her home state (would Newsom accept a cabinet post should she win?), plus upcoming milestones for two US presidents with California ties – the 50th anniversary of Richard Nixon’s White House resignation and Herbert Hoover’s 150th birthday.
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The Supreme Court saves the year’s most dramatic case for last – the question of whether Donald Trump can claim immunity from prosecution for actions he took while holding office. John Yoo, a Hoover Institution visiting fellow and Emanuel S. Heller Professor of Law at the University of California–Berkeley School of Law, dissects the court’s highly anticipated ruling. After that John talks about the significance of American’s Independence Day celebration, the health of the US Constitution, plus the proper balance of freedom and regulation – from the perspective of a constitutional scholar and a first-generation American.
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Is a Chinese move on Taiwan inevitable (a quarantine, embargo or outright invasion this decade or next)? Or are there commonsense ways to ensure the island country’s freedom—and prevent a great-power conflict between Cold War rivals? Matt Pottinger, a Hoover Institution distinguished visiting fellow and former senior staffer at the White House’s National Security Council, joins Hoover Distinguished Policy fellow Bill Whalen to discuss the options he and other US-Sino experts have to offer in Hoover’s newly released The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan. Among the recommendations: ramping up military technology and capabilities; introducing a new pro-military mindset on the other side of the Pacific Rim; plus, America (following Israel’s example) understanding the benefits of a “warrior ethos.”
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While the Golden State struggles with the aftershock of its elevated fast-food minimum wage – California-based Rubio’s Coastal Grill, home of the fish taco, is filing for bankruptcy – and the legislature has to deal with the approaching deadline for a new state budget, which invites fiscal and policy skullduggery. Hoover senior fellow Lee Ohanian and distinguished policy fellow Bill Whalen, both weekly contributors to Hoover’s California on Your Mind web channel, discuss the latest news in the Golden State including a nascent 2026 governor’s race (will vice president Kamala Harris “pull a Nixon” and give it a go?), plus a fond remembrance of the late Bill Walton – native San Diegan, UCLA basketball legend, citizen activist – who passed away just days after his beloved Pac-12 Conference likewise bid farewell.
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President Biden and Donald Trump have agreed to a departure in presidential politics – two general-election debates in late June (a historical first) and early September, with a lone vice presidential debate somewhere in between. Ben Ginsberg, the Hoover Institution’s Volker Family Visiting Fellow and a nationally recognized election-integrity advocate and campaign counsel, discusses the merits of the new debate schedule, what it means for the future of the Commission on Presidential Debates (which both candidates purposely avoided) and national conventions and third-party candidacies, the impact on a changing media landscape, plus the feasibility of a third Biden-Trump debate in October if either the public demands or both campaigns feel compelled to do so.
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