Afleveringen
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US Rates strategists Phoebe White, Teresa Ho, and Ipek Ozil discuss their takeaways from this week's Fed meeting and tariff announcements. With a deterioration in labor market data still likely to drive Fed easing later this year, Treasury yields are expected to fall over coming months. Meanwhile, funding markets remain healthy, and stability has returned to swap spreads.
Speakers:
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy
Teresa Ho Gentile, Head of US Short Duration Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Head of US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4981555-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980064-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4976471-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980549-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and Octavia Popescu discuss how the USD/Asia view is evolving after record volatility, as well as recent central bank meetings and the US-UK trade deal with the read-through to FX.
Speakers:Meera Chandan, Global FX StrategyArindam Sandilya, Global FX StrategyPatrick Locke, Global FX StrategyOctavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4979940-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss a variety of topics covering thoughts around the impact of de-dollarisation on Euro govie and swap markets, the May BoE meeting and UK rates as well as the Riksbank and Norges Bank meetings this week.
Speakers
Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy
Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist
Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 09 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4981304-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980024-0 & https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980028-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Over the past five decades, foreign investors have been steadily accumulating US financial assets, which have reached nearly $57trn as of the end of 2024. Yet, there are signs that sovereign wealth funds and reserve managers appear to be rethinking the risk-reward parameters of holding US assets. Gold could further benefit from this shift. Given its limited supply growth, even relatively small reallocations into the metal can significantly impact prices. A potential shift of just 0.5% of foreign US assets to gold could yield 18% annual returns, taking gold prices toward $6,000 by early 2029. While hypothetical, this scenario illustrates why we remain structurally bullish gold and think prices have further to run.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971492-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Arindam, Jemmy and Mixo discuss the outlook for Taiwanese and Asian equities more broadly in the wake of historic TWD FX appreciation
This podcast was recorded on May 8, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4975042-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4974799-0and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4975936-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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J.P. Morgan strategists Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss latest developments in the Treasury and FX markets in the context of this week's employment data, trade negotiations, and Treasury's May refunding announcement.
Speakers:
Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy
Meera Chandan, Co-Head of Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on May 2, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4972435-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971315-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4973610-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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In this week’s At Any Rate podcast, our Global FX team addresses the large move in USD/TWD late in the week alongside implications for USD/CNY, Asia FX and global FX more broadly. We also recap recent FX-relevant macro data and central bank decisions, and look ahead to how FX might respond around central bank meetings next week.
Speakers:Arindam Sandilya, Global FX StrategyMeera Chandan, Global FX StrategyPatrick Locke, Global FX StrategyJames Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971315-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
The oil market seems to be pre-positioning to benefit from the tailwinds of tariff de-escalation, along with shifts towards deregulation and tax cuts. But while the recent de-escalation in trade talks has reduced the probability of a bear case, the ‘Trump put' does not extend to energy, as the administration continues to prioritize lower oil prices to manage inflation. On the demand side, markets may be underestimating the final tariff levels that the Trump administration plans to impose on US imports. On the supply side, OPEC+ will continue to face challenges due to the growth in non-OPEC supply and capacity expansion among some alliance members, especially as a significant portion of the capital expenditure for these expansions is being funded by major international oil companies. Given the diminishing price reaction to a 1 mbd supply cut—from $10 in 2023 to $8 in 2024 and $4 in 2025—and our outlook for $60 oil in 2026, increasing supply to maximize revenue might be the optimal strategy for an oil-producing country.
This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4966066-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 01 May 2025.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Sajjid Chinoy, Rajiv Batra and Arindam Sandilya discuss the outlook for EM Asia macro, equity and fixed income markets in the wake of the IMF / WB meetings in Washington DC last week
This podcast was recorded on Apr 28, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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During this episode, Tracey shares her takeaways from the recently held Geneva Sugar conference and provides an update on the cocoa market after the relative strength in recent grinding data.
Speakers:
Tracey Allen, Head of Ags Research
This podcast was recorded on April 25, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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After hitting our out-of-consensus upside EUR/USD targets of 1.14-1.16, we now set our sights at 1.20 and discuss the underlying rationale. We also discuss the outlook for the broader euro bloc as well as the main take-aways for FX from our suite of systematic models.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4966930-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4957718-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Heightened trade policy uncertainty and an apparent shift in OPEC’s reaction function prompt a reassessment of our outlook and price projections. Having reached our year-end price forecasts eight months early, we lower our 2025 Brent price forecast to $66 ($62 WTI), down from $73/bbl. Additionally, we adjust our 2026 targets to $58 ($54 WTI), a slight decrease from the previous $61. The price floor is now much lower. Unlike the Biden administration, which limited downside risk by guiding the refill of the US SPR when WTI prices fell below $70, the Trump administration is actively pursuing lower oil prices, with intervention unlikely unless price drops to $50. US shale producers will bear the brunt of these developments, with our projections indicating a cut of 115 rigs starting in July, leading to a contraction in US crude and condensate production in 2026. Consequently, reduced shale activity will weaken US associated natural gas supply, providing support to Henry Hub natural gas prices. While OPEC+ is poised to gain market share in 2025, stabilizing the market at $60 Brent in 2026 would require the alliance not only to reverse current production increases, but to implement further cuts.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 17, April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4953411-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Changing dynamics of natural gas power generation demand are at play for summer 2025, while stronger production response is likely delayed to 2026. We expect up to 1.1 Bcf/day of gas-to-coal switching in summer 2025, however we flag risks of higher prices subject to weather risks and renewable availability. In 2026, we expect increase in production to alleviate such risks and push prices lower. Lastly, we address what the recession risks may mean for the US natural gas market.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Otar Dgebuadze, Vice President, Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 11, April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4936692-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Our Global FX Strategists debrief a volatile week for currency markets - including key takeaways on the policy front and what challenges still lie ahead from a global macro perspective. They also discuss the the details of the recent USD sell-off, as well as expectations for USD/CNH going forward.
Speakers:Arindam Sandilya, Global FX StrategyPatrick Locke, Global FX StrategyJames Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 11 April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4954262-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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US Rates strategists Jay Barry, Srini Ramaswamy, Phoebe White, and Ipek Ozil discuss the historic volatility observed in US rates markets over the past week and its drivers. Treasury market liquidity deteriorated, and swap spreads narrowed sharply, but the cash/futures basis and repo rates were relatively stable.
Speakers:Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates StrategySrini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Interest Rate Derivatives StrategyPhoebe White, Head of US Inflation StrategyIpek Ozil, Head of US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 10 April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4955364-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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In the debut Asia edition of the ‘At Any Rate’ podcast, Sajjid Chinoy and Arindam Sandilya discuss the outlook for EM Asia macro and markets in the wake of US reciprocal tariffs.
Key topics discussed:
How global economic views are evolving post-Liberation Day; channels of transmission to Asian growth and growth forecast changesAsian policymakers’ responses; policy tools deployment across different countriesRates and bonds investing Asian FX - how the dollar behavior is shaping FX views; primary risk factors to watch out forThis podcast was recorded on Apr 10, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4951821-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4944945-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4950529-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4952039-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4950917-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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During this commodities edition, Tracey discusses the implications of Liberation Day tariffs for agri markets and the outlook ahead.
Speaker:
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 4, April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4949701-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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In this week’s At Any Rate Podcasts, our strategists Meera Chandan, Saad Siddiqui and Patrick Locke discuss the outlooks for the broad dollar, G10 FX and EM FX following major tariff announcements and subsequent stress in risk markets.
Speakers:Meera Chandan, Global FX StrategySaad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets ResearchPatrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 4 April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4949817-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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In this podcast, Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their the reaction of European rates markets to the tariff announcement this week.
This podcast was recorded on 04 April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4949749-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4946392-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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