Afleveringen
-
Right from the outset, it is clear Prime Minister Anthony Albaneseâs agenda is very different to his predecessor Scott Morrisonâs â from emphasising his commitment to fighting climate change to foreign leaders in Tokyo, to displaying the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags at his Parliament House press conferences.
In this final episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our expert panel discusses the possible impacts the election result may have on government policy, from Canberra to the world stage. What can Albanese get done, in concert with the independents, the Greens and other MPs?
Theyâre joined by PhD student Phoebe Hayman from La Trobe University to discuss the teal independentsâ campaigns and how they might contribute to the new parliament. Theyâre also joined by Director of La Trobe Asia Bec Strating to discuss how the Solomon Islands dispute impacted the campaign and what our relationship with China might look like under Foreign Minister Penny Wong.
This final episode was recorded live at La Trobe University on May 24, and we have released it in two parts. Listen here to part one, which focuses on the election results and their fallout. This concluding edition looks ahead to the policy issues faced by the new federal parliament.
Our panellists also discuss the frontrunner for the Liberal leadership Peter Dutton, whom Simon Jackman believes is more pragmatic than some may think. Host Jon Faine and Andrea Carson speculate as to whether News Corporation will double down on its partisan alignment with the Coalition, or learn from its ultimately unsuccessful attempts to influence the campaign during its coverage.
Meanwhile, Anika Guaja wonders whether the teal independents might band together and form a new party ahead of the next federal election in 2025. We also hear from young La Trobe students about their experience of voting for the first time.
Finally, a sincere thank you to our regular listeners who have supported Below the Line throughout the election campaign. Our regular panellists are taking a well-earned break, but perhaps you might hear from them again at the next federal election.
To become one of more than 190,000 people who get The Conversationâs journalism by experts delivered straight to their inbox, subscribe today.
Disclosures: Simon Jackman is a consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.
Image credit: Lukas Coch/AAP
-
Politics can be slow-moving, until all of a sudden it isnât. As political scientist Simon Jackman says in todayâs episode of Below the Line, âpolitics is very non-linear. You get these steady, secular trends in voter sentiment, and then youâll have that breakthrough election where that will convert into seatsâ.
2022 was that breakthrough election. The Liberal party was turfed out, not just from government but also from many of its blue-ribbon seats, and we saw a historic wave of climate-focused candidates elected from outside the major parties.
In this episode of Below the Line, our expert panel dissects the results of this surprising federal election, from Anthony Albaneseâs victory, to the breakthrough of independents and the Queensland Greens, and Scott Morrison âbulldozingâ his way to the worst Liberal result since the second world war.
Our regular panellists recorded this final episode live at La Trobe University, which we are releasing in two parts. Part one focuses on the election results and their fallout, while the concluding edition of our limited-edition podcast series will examine the policy consequences going forward for the new federal parliament.
Our political experts also critique the mediaâs coverage of the campaign in light of the historic results. Host and former ABC Radio host Jon Faine believes the national broadcasterâs coverage was âbelow standardâ, while he agrees with Western Australian Premier Mark McGowanâs criticisms of the unprofessional conduct of the national press gallery. Andrea Carson also calls out News Corpâs partisan coverage, the mediaâs âgotchaâ questions, and their belated focus on women, while Simon Jackman and Anika Gauja take issue with their âpresidentialisedâ approach that focused too much on the partiesâ respective leaders.
Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. It is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.
To become one of more than 190,000 people who get The Conversationâs journalism by experts delivered straight to their inbox, subscribe today.
Disclosures: Simon Jackman is a consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.
Image credit: Dean Lewins/AAP
-
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
-
What do One Nationâs Pauline Hanson and Laborâs Tanya Plibersek have in common? They are both winning the battle for eyeballs on social media, says a top Facebook official.
In the final episode before polling day of our election podcast Below the Line, our regular panel talks to Mia Garlick, Facebookâs Director of Policy in Australia and New Zealand, about the ways politicians use the social media platform in election campaigns. Our political scientists quiz Garlick on how transparent the company is about the political advertising it carries and the assistance it provides to big-spending campaigners.
Video content is an increasingly important way for politicians to get their messages across to online audiences. Aside from Hanson and Plibersek, Garlick says politicians who are doing video messaging particularly well this election include the Liberal partyâs Lucy Wicks and Jason Falinski, and founder of the Reason party Fiona Patten.
Andrea Carson says the digital campaign will ramp up once the three-day blackout on broadcast and newspaper political ads comes into effect on Wednesday evening, because online ads are outside the lawâs reach. Jon Faine describes the law as âabsurdâ in the digital age, akin to using Morse Code.
Faine also asks the panel why Prime Minister Scott Morrison vowed this week to no longer be âa bulldozerâ. âIt was a significant shift on Scott Morrisonâs part,â says Anika Gauja, in recognition that the public seems to want a more positive campaign than it has been getting. But with more than five million pre-poll and postal votes already cast, according to ABC election analyst Antony Green, has Morrisonâs mea culpa come too late?
Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. It is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.
To become one of the thousands of people who help The Conversation produce journalism by experts, make a tax-deductible donation here.
Below the Line will broadcast one last episode after the election result next week. If you have a question you would like the panel to answer, email us at:[email protected]
Disclosures: Andrea Carson has received funding for research projects from Facebook.
Jon Faine does freelance work for Industry Super Australia, a peak body for industry superannuation funds.
Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.
Image credit: James Ross/AAP
-
An existential moment for the Liberal party? Another female leader for Labor? In this episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our expert panel talk us through what might happen to the major parties if they do not win government.
Led by award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine, the panel talks through the potential configurations of the next federal parliament, including the possible balance of power in both chambers.
Polling expert Simon Jackman analyses the latest voter surveys and tells us why a Labor victory still looks very likely at this stage. Anika Gauja maps the key contests in the Senate and the likelihood of minor parties and independents holding decisive votes.
Andrea Carson scores the final leadersâ debate and argues that Channel Sevenâs format gave voters a better look at policy issues than the previous debate on Channel Nine. Some 811,000 Australians tuned in to watch Wednesday nightâs event, but Faine wonders whether voters have heard enough about the issues they truly care about.
âThe debateâs range of topics was still pretty narrow,â says Carson. âI think it was noted for what wasnât debated rather than what was,â says Faine, who lists tax reform, industrial relations and Indigenous affairs as important but missing policy issues.
The panel also contemplates the Liberal partyâs future if key moderates lose their seats, and whether it will move further to the right. Gauja lists the likely names to lead Labor if Anthony Albanese suffers a shock defeat on May 21.
Below the Line is brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. It is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.
Image credit: Lukas Coch/AAP; Mick Tsikas/AAP
Disclosure: Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.
-
Channel Nineâs leadersâ debate on Sunday night may have been a âshouty, unedifying spectacleâ, but Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese will do it all again on Wednesday evening on Channel Seven.
Why? In the latest episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our panel of experts explain that our political leaders are under pressure to persuade voters as quickly as possible, given early voting centres have now opened and Australians can cast their ballots.
But what policies arenât being talked about on the debate stages and the campaign trail? Plenty, according to the University of Sydneyâs Simon Jackman and Anika Gauja and La Trobe Universityâs Andrea Carson. Below the Lineâs usual host Jon Faine is away for this episode, but will return later in the week.
Anika identifies migration and the casualisation of work as two key issues the major parties have largely steered clear of in the campaign so far. Simon is dumbfounded by how quickly politicians and the media have dropped the topic of COVID, given how many Australians have died with the disease in 2022. Meanwhile, Andrea wonders why renters can barely get a look in amid all the discussion of first-homebuyer schemes.
Finally, the panel discusses preference deals and whether they could lead to candidates being elected to the lower house despite having relatively few first preferences themselves.
Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. The show is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.
To become one of the thousands of people who help The Conversation produce journalism by experts, make a tax-deductible donation here.
Image credit: Alex Ellinghausen/AAP
Audio credit: Channel Nine/60 Minutes
Disclosure: Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.
-
On Monday May 9, early voting centres will open and Australians can start casting their votes for the federal election.
Increasing numbers of Australians are choosing not to line up for their democracy sausage on election day, opting instead to get it out of the way beforehand. In 2019, about 40% of Australians either voted early by visiting a pre-poll station (32.7%) or they filled out a postal ballot (8.5%).
So the next week is crucial for partiesâ and candidatesâ campaigns â can they convince enough persuadable voters before they cast their ballots?
In this episode of Below the Line, award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine and our regular panel of political scientists discuss how early voting is âtruncatingâ political campaigns, by bringing forward the crucial vote-turning period.
This means that the campaign will intensify in the next week, says Anika Gauja. The parties will need to get their key messages out repeatedly. Early voting is one of the reasons the leaders may have agreed to two debates in the next seven days â on Mothersâ Day with Channel 9 in prime time and another again on Wednesday 11 May with Channel 7.
They also discuss whether the Reserve Bankâs recent interest rate hike will hurt Prime Minister Scott Morrison, or perhaps help him among mortage-free retirees. On the whole, polling expert Simon Jackman believes it represents a net-negative for the government, because there are more mortgage-holders in marginal seats.
The political partiesâ advertising is also dissected. Spending on ads shot up in the last week, with Labor coming out on top as the biggest spender on social media.
Finally, they discuss preferences, campaign finance disclosures and the curious case of a candidate for Pauline Hansonâs One Nation party who lives 2,500 kilometres away from the electorate sheâs seeking to represent.
Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. The show is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.
Correction: Jon states that the One Nation candidate for âBob Katterâs seat in northern Queenslandâ lives in the Melbourne suburb of Pakenham, whereas the far-flung candidate Diane Pepe is actually contesting the seat of Herbert, which is adjacent to Katterâs seat of Kennedy.
Disclosure: Andrea Carson has received funding for research projects from Facebook.
Image credit: Lukas Coch/Mick Tsikas/AAP
-
Is there any such thing as the so-called âethnic voteâ in a country as multicultural as Australia? Do different cultural groups favour one side of politics over another? For instance, in Victoriaâs most marginal seat of Chisholm, will the Hong Kong-born Liberal MP Gladys Liu be advantaged by the Chinese diaspora living in her electorate?
In the latest episode of Below the Line, hosted by award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine, we talk to Chinese media expert Wilfred Wang from the University of Melbourne to understand why there are no easy answers to these questions.
Andrea Carson asks if a negative Labor ad circulating online about Liuâs connections to China â which Prime Minister Scott Morrison called âsewer tacticsâ â will harm her electoral prospects.
âItâs unlikely,â Dr Wang explains, because Chinese Australians do not vote uniformly, with their support fragmented across the major parties and the Greens.
He also says there is little evidence from 2019 that Liberal election messages on the Chinese online platform WeChat played a big role in Liuâs 2019 electoral success.
âWeChat didnât play such a vital role in shaping Chinese Australiansâ votes, even for those voters from mainland China,â says Dr Wang, contradicting some of the party and media speculation at the time.
To read Dr Wangâs forthcoming article on misinformation targeting migrant communities, which is mentioned in the program, visit his author profile early next week or subscribe to our daily newsletter to be alerted as soon as it goes live.
As Simon Jackman notes, the top 10 seats with the highest proportions of non-English speakers are in Melbourne and Sydney, and he reminds us that more research needs to be done to understand these ethnic voting patterns. Anika Gauja says this is further complicated by shifts in immigration demographics, with a big influx of Indian migrants in the past decade, which both sides of politics are trying to capitalise on.
Meanwhile, Anthony Albanese has returned to the campaign trail after a week in isolation with COVID-19 â but how much of a difference did his physical absence make to communication Laborâs messages to voters? Less than the Coalition would have liked, conclude our expert panel.
Finally, Jon asks why Scott Morrison and his team have already said âyesâ to a second leaders debate on May 8 (Motherâs Day) with Channel Nine, but Labor is yet to commit? What does this tell us about how the Liberal party might see its own electoral prospects?
Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University.
Image credit: James Ross/AAP
Disclosure: Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.
-
Former independent federal MP Cathy McGowan has hit back at John Howardâs description of independent candidates as âanti-Liberal groupiesâ.
In this Below the Line exclusive, McGowan says the former Prime Ministerâs use of the term was clearly meant to be derogatory. âI suspect someone has given it to him,â she said. âIt doesnât bring to mind the calibre of the people who are standing. If he is trying to talk to people in the leafy suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney, and calling those candidates groupies, then he has missed the mark totally.â
McGowan argues that independents cannot be put into just one category. While some are high-profile, have branded themselves with the colour teal and receive funding from the Climate200 group to promote action on climate change, âthere are orange and pink and yellow and other colours as well⊠There are at least 25community independents running and you could not group them together.â
McGowan, who defied the odds and won the traditional Liberal seat of Indi (previously held by Liberal Sophie Mirabella), predicted as many as ten independents could get over the line on polling day. âThere is an incredible sense across the country of disillusionment with the government, and people are desperate to send a message to both parties that they are not doing well enough, and the independents are putting their hand up as a very viable alternative,â she said.
If McGowanâs prediction came true, independents would likely hold the balance of power in the lower house, forcing a minority government. Below the Lineâs Anika Gauja says working with such a large crossbench would be âunprecedented in Australian federal politicsâ. And if the independents do poll well, Simon Jackman explains it may make counting the vote complicated on election night, possibly slowing down the final result.
Our expert panel also discuss Defence Minister Peter Duttonâs recent comment that âthe only way you can preserve peace is to prepare for warâ, the record number of female candidates this election (39%, up from 32% last time around), and large numbers of young people enrolling to vote at the last minute.
Below the Line is a twice-weekly election podcast hosted by award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine and brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University.
Image credit: Diego Fedele/AAP
Disclosure: Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.
-
AAP Image
When tennis superstar Dylan Alcottâs post rebuking the Prime Minister for his clumsy âblessedâ comment is outperforming election news stories on social media, you know the leadersâ debate didnât go as hoped for the Coalition.
Scott Morrison effectively lost a day of campaigning on Thursday, which he largely spent apologising to disability groups and families who were offended when he said he was âblessedâ to have children without disability during Wednesday nightâs leadersâ debate. Alcott posted, âWoke up this morning feeling very blessed to be disabled â I reckon my parents are pretty happy about it too.â
In this episode of Below the Line, host Jon Faine explores the political fallout from the debate and some policy highlights. Our expert panel consider what impact catching COVID and spending a week in isolation will have on Opposition Leader Anthony Albaneseâs campaign. Anika Gauja says the virtual campaign will take off and itâs a good opportunity to hear more from Laborâs shadow ministers.
But why have we not seen more ministers and their political counterparts debating policies in the media, asks Faine? Do voters benefit from the mediaâs focus on the leaders, personalities and polls? Andrea Carson says The Conversationâs #SetTheAgenda survey is a good example of putting voters ahead of the interests of media proprietors and getting away from âhorse raceâ coverage.
Finally, listen to what we make of the Solomon Islandsâ security pact with China. Simon Jackman says itâs a major setback for the Coalitionâs election campaign and not in Australiaâs foreign policy interests.
Below the Line is brought to you twice a week by The Conversation with La Trobe University.
Image: Toby Zerna/AAP
-
Remember those classic lines that have come out of election debates? Recall 2013 when Tony Abbott asked the audience, âDoes this guy [Kevin Rudd] ever shut up?â Or Bill Shorten in 2019 describing Scott Morrison as a âclassic space invader?â Or back in 1993 when Paul Keating told John Hewson his costing of the proposed GST was like âa magic pudding?â
In our fourth episode of the Below the Line podcast, host Jon Faine asks if election debates still matter. Audience numbers have dropped significantly since 1993, when 71% of Australians surveyed said they tuned in. By 2016, viewership was down to 21%.
This sharp decline in the proportion of Australians who watch an election debate is confirmed by Australian Election Study data.The first debate for the 2022 federal election campaign is scheduled for April 19 on Sky News, hosted in partnership with the Courier Mail. 100 undecided voters will pose questions to both major party leaders.
Simon Jackman and Anika Gauja remind us that while not many people tune in, debates can be dangerous for leaders if they stumble or fail to recall policy details. These âfailsâ then trend on social media. For example, there might be some tricky questions on climate change given Brisbane, where the debate is being held, was recently hit by devasting floods.
While audience numbers might be small, they capture some voting demographics which both major parties are targetting. Andrea Carson points out that Sky News is broadcast on the free-to-air WIN TV Network and Southern Cross Austereo acrossregional New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland. Television ratings data tells us that these audiences are older, and polling data tells us they are more likely to be supporting the Coalition than Labor.
Our expert panel also discuss Anthony Albaneseâs polarising appearance at the BluesFest musical festival in Byron Bay, and the surfacing of controversial comments about transgender people made by the Liberal candidate for the Sydney-based seat of Warringah.
Below the Line is an election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University up until the vote is counted.
Image: Lukas Coch/AAP
-
George Christensen, the maverick Liberal-National Party member from far north Queensland, dropped the pre-Easter bombshell that he is no longer heading for retirement but joining One Nation. Today, the Below the Line podcast team unpack what this means for the major partiesâ prospects in that seat and for the election result.
Joining our host, award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine, is Anika Guaja who says the defection is a big win for One Nation, whose leader Pauline Hanson says they will field candidates in every Australian electorate.
Meanwhile, Andrea Carson finds that One Nation is getting more public interactions (likes, shares and comments) on Facebook for political posts than any other party or politician including the Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Carson says this shows One Nationâs mastery in reaching voters with their conversational style of messaging on social media.
Facebook data aggregated using CrowdTangle shows Hansonâs dominance on social media.Simon Jackman notes that even before the media publicly shamed Anthony Albanese with front page headlines for failing to recall the unemployment rate on the first day of campaigning, Laborâs vote lead was already narrowing according to different pollsters.
With early voting opening on May 9, ahead of polling day on May 21, our panel looks at what this means for media messaging, polls and political strategies. Added to this is the Australian Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogersâ unprecedented announcement that COVID-19 affected voters will be able to lodge their vote by telephone on election day. This has never happened in a federal Australian election before. This raises all sorts of questions about how the vote will be recorded and counted, especially for those of you who choose to vote âbelow the lineâ on the Senate ballot.
Listen to our expert panelâs latest election insights, and thank you for tuning in and propelling Below the Line into the top 20 Australian news podcasts on Spotify this week after just two episodes. Keep listening, weâll have more to come right up until election day.
Image: Darren England/AAP
-
When will Prime Minister Scott Morrison call the election? And could this be the long-awaited campaign when women take the driverâs seat?
In the second episode of our new election podcast, Below the Line, our expert panel delve into the High Courtâs involvement in the electionâs timing and its likely impact on the Coalition vote. After we finished recording, the High Court confirmed the dismissal of the New South Wales Liberalsâ challenge to Morrisonâs hand-picked candidates.
Then, picking up on the PMâs claim this week that he overrode the local preselection process to âget more good women into parliamentâ, we take a deep dive into what role gender will play in the campaign.
Jointly hosting the episode are award-winning broadcaster and Vice Chancellorâs Fellow at the University of Melbourne, Jon Faine, and University of Sydneyâs Professor Simon Jackman. Joining them to talk about gender and politics is an all-female line-up of political scientists including regular panellists Associate Professor Andrea Carson from La Trobe University, Sydney Universityâs Professor Anika Gauja and special guest Dr Jill Sheppard, a gender expert from the Australian National University.
They look at why Australia is ranked just 50th in the world for female political representation, a drastic fall from 1999 when Australia was ranked 15th. After the March4Justice movement and with increasing numbers of female independent candidates campaigning, could we turn things around in 2022? Donât hold your breathe, said Jill Sheppard, who reminded us that voters might care more about petrol prices than gender parity.
Below the Line is brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University twice weekly until polling day. It is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.
Image credit: Diego Fedele/AAP
-
From the polls to party spin to election promises, Below the Line is a limited-edition podcast unpacking party lines and policies during the 2022 Australian federal election campaign.
Hosting the conversation is award-winning broadcaster and former ABC Melbourne mornings presenter, Jon Faine, now a Vice Chancellorâs Fellow at the University of Melbourne. Heâll be joined by political scientists Anika Gauja and Simon Jackman from the University of Sydney and La Trobe Universityâs Andrea Carson, to talk about the issues that matter to you.
Below the Line is brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University twice weekly until polling day.
Listen to the first episode, in which our panel discusses personalities and pre-selections, when the election will likely be called, and the most probable electiondate. Together, our experts outline the issues that are expected to feature prominently during the campaign and the key challenges for the Coalition seeking re-election for a fourth term in government. And tune in to hear why this election campaign is expected to âget dirtyâ.
Produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.
Image credit: Sarah Rhodes/AAP