Afleveringen
-
More than 100 days into the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, both sides remain trapped between the ever-present dangerâŻof serious escalation and an elusive negotiated, pathway out of the conflict. As negotiations stall, Iran and the U.S. are still struggling over core issues while Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz have emerged as significant triggers for escalation. What are the major obstacles standing in way of a U.S.-Iran agreement? Are U.S. objectives aligned with Israel? And what are the prospectsâŻfor turning a short-term deal into a durable agreement?âŻ
Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Brookings Institutionâs Suzanne Maloney and the Carnegie Endowmentâs Karim Sadjadpour in a wide-ranging conversation on these and other issues, on Carnegie Connects.
-
As the U.S. led war with Iran approaches its fourth month, poised somewhere between escalation and a possible diplomatic off ramp, no relationship has been more important than the Trump administrationâs with Israel. Are American and Israeli tactics and strategy on Iran unaligned, if not fundamentally at odds? What about on Lebanon and Gaza? And where does the relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu stand, especially as Israel heads toward critical elections this fall?
Join Aaron David Miller as engages the Institute for National Security Studiesâ Danny Citrinowicz in a wide-ranging conversation analyzing the current state of the alliance and where the U.S.-Israel relationship goes from here, on Carnegie Connects.
-
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
-
President Donald Trump is in Beijing for a delayed but much anticipated summit with China's President Xi Jinping. A successful meetingâlet alone a functional and effective relationship with Beijingâwill depend on America reading Xi's China right.
Beyond avoiding war with Washington, what does Xi want in his relationship with the United States? How do issues like the U.S. war with Iran, differences on Taiwan, and relations with Russia shape Xi's strategy? And what are America's core interests in its China's policy?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with David Rennie, the Economist's geopolitics editor, author of The Telegram column, and former bureau chief in Beijing, on the next Carnegie Connects.
-
Cuba has presented a long-standing dilemma for American foreign policymakers. The nation was at the center of the most fraught moment in recent American history, bringing the U.S. and former Soviet Union to the cusp of nuclear during the Cuban Missile Crisis. In the decades since, U.S. presidents have continued to struggle to create an effective their policy for engaging with a Castro-dominated Cuba. Now, President Trump has declared âCuba is next,â implying that the country could be the administrationâs latest target.
Why has the Cuba puzzle been so hard to solve? What policy makes the most sense to advance U.S. interests, and presents an opportunity for a bipartisan consensus? How have domestic politicsâparticularly the views of the Cuban-American communityâshaped American policy?
Join Aaron DavidâŻMillerâŻas he engages the University of Miamiâs Michael Bustamante and Ricardo Zuniga of DinĂĄmica AmericasâŻin a broad ranging conversation on the past, present, and future of U.S.-Cuba relations, on Carnegie Connects.
-
Brokered by Pakistan, the United States and Iran have agreed to a fragile two-week ceasefire,âŻdependent on an American condition that Iran agrees to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Israel has also agreed to cease strikes on Iran, but its campaign in Lebanon continues. Can this agreement hold? After six weeks of conflict, why did the parties agree now? âŻWhat can we expect from the negotiations ahead, and what are the chances of a resumption of the war or a comprehensive agreement to end it? âŻ
Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Brookings Institution Suzanne Maloney and the Institute for National Security Studies Danny Citrinowicz âŻin a broad ranging conversation on the Iran war and whether we will soon see meaningful negotiations or a return to conflict, on the next Carnegie Connects.
-
Seven weeks into the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, and with an uneasy ceasefire in place, it may be too early to predict conclusive winners and losers. How are Russia and China, two of Iranâs closet allies, faring in the balance sheet as the war drags on? And what of Europe, especially France, Germany, and Britain, who appeared blindsided by the war are now under pressure to support the United Statesâ war aims? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Carnegieâs Rosa Balfour, Evan Feigenbaum, and Alexander Gabuev to unpack how these major powers are relating to the current conflict and how the Trump administration is responding to them, on Carnegie Connects.
-
More than one month in, the United States and Israelâs war against Iran has resulted in what the International Energy Agency termedâŻthe âlargest supply disruption in theâŻhistory of the global oil market.ââŻIranâs ability to control what passes through the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted a fifth of the world's daily oil supply, along with the flow of other commodities such as helium, liquid natural gas, and fertilizer, adding to inflationary pressures globally. âŻProspects for a diplomatic exit look bleak and military options to fully open the Strait presents formidable challenges. So, what does the current crisis portend for the global supply of oil and hydrocarbons? Who are the big winners and losers as the world tries to adapt to energy market disruptions? And what lessons, if any, can be drawn from the unfolding crisis?
JoinâŻAaronâŻDavid Miller as he engages Helima Croft,âŻhead of Global Commodity Strategy and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Research atâŻRBC Capital Markets,âŻon the current crisis and the future of oil and hydrocarbons, on Carnegie Connects.
-
The Trump Administrationâs war against Iran has highlighted one of the stranger paradoxes of Americaâs longstanding relationship with Israelâat a time when Israelâs image in the United States is at low point, cooperation and coordination with Washington has reached an all-time high. One would be hard pressed to identify any large-scale U.S. miliary campaign in decades in which there has been greater partnership between allies.
Is the foundation of this alliance âcommon and shared values; a high coincidence of interests; and strong base of domestic support â under stress? What of the relationship between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump? And what does the future of the relationship hold for US and Israeli interests in a complex and volatile region?
Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Middle East Instituteâs Yael Lempert, Princetonâs Daniel Kurtzer, and the Atlantic Councilâs Daniel Shapiro, three former U.S. ambassadors to the region with deep experience on the U.S.-Israeli relationship, on the next Carnegie Connects.
-
On February 28, the United States and Israel launched military, cyber, and intelligence operations against Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed and strikes were conducted on a broad array of targets, including other senior Iranian leadership compounds, IRGC bases, and missile launchers and production facilities. In response, Iran launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles against U.S. bases, IsraelâŻand countries in the Gulf, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar.
With no signs of the conflict winding down and unclear goals and timelines from leadership in Washington, where is this war headed? Was there ever a serious prospect for negotiations between the United States and Iran? What is the likely impact of the death of Ayatollah Khamenei on succession and the stability of the regime? Is meaningful and lasting regime change or transformation possible?
Join Aaron David Miller as engages with the Brooking Institutionâs Suzanne Maloney, International Crisis Groupâs Ali Vaez,âŻand Yale Universityâs Rob Malley on these and other Iran-related issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.
-
Four years on from Russiaâs full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war drags on, seemingly with no end in sight. The enormity and scale of death and destruction seem unfathomable, with a front line stretching 750 miles and little indication that either side has fundamentally altered the military balance of power. Negotiation under U.S. auspices in various venues and formats continue with no sign that any diplomatic pathway is imminent.
What is the likely trajectory on the battlefield in 2026? Can Russian President Vladimir Putin wage war without end?âŻWhat of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyyâs politics and policies, including a potential upcoming election? And does the Trump Administration have a strategy to reach a ceasefire, let alone anâŻendâŻto the war, and on what terms?âŻ
Join Aaron David MillerâŻas he engages Eric Ciaramella, a senior fellow in Carnegieâs Russia and Eurasia Program, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a nonresident scholar in Carnegieâs Russia and Eurasia Program and former defense minister of Ukraine, and Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, in a wide-ranging discussion of Russiaâs war against Ukraine four years on, on the next Carnegie Connects.
-
A year into President Donald Trumpâs second term,âŻthe state and fate of the American RepublicâŻis uncertain andâŻprecarious.âŻâŻAt home,âŻan unprecedented expansion ofâŻpresidential powerâŻhas undermined norms and institutions andâŻthreatened democratic governance. American politics remain polarized, taking on a tribal and personal character with disagreementsâŻoftenâŻcast as struggles between good and bad.âŻAnd abroad, the administrationâs pursuit of an âAmerica firstâ policy has undermined the trust of traditional allies and openedâŻupâŻopportunities for U.S.âŻadversaries.
What can Americans expect from the next three years of the Trump administration?âŻWhat should allies be preparing for given an increasingly expansionist and aggressive U.S. foreign policy? And whatâŻare the obligations and responsibilities of citizens during theseâŻdifficultâŻtimes?âŻâŻ
Join Aaron DavidâŻMiller asâŻhe engages Pulitzer Prize winningâŻauthor andâŻThe New York TimesâŻcolumnist Thomas Friedman on these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.âŻâŻ
-
Protests in Iran have now engulfed its major cities and all 31 provinces, creating a mass movement incorporating all elements of Iranian society, despite a comprehensive internet blackout. The regime, blaming the United States and Israel for the sweeping movement, is casting the protests as a continuation of its twelve-day war with Israel and is cracking down hard, with the death toll rising. The Institute for the Study of War has reported that more Iranian security forces have been killed than in any previous periods of unrest. Now, President Donald Trump is vowing U.S. intervention in support of the protestors.
How are these demonstrations different than others in the past? What are the Iranian regimeâs options for suppressing them? Are we nearing the point of regime fracture or the end of Ayatollah Khomeiniâs reign altogether? And how should the United States respond?
Join Aaron David Miller as he engages two veteran Iran analysts, the Carnegie Endowmentâs Karim Sadjadpour and the New Yorkerâs Robin Wright in conversation to discuss the unfolding crisis in Iran and Americaâs reaction, on the next Carnegie Connects.
-
In the first year of his second term, President Donald Trump has pursued an aggressive foreign policy that has shattered the norms and conventions that have guided almost all of his Republican and Democratic predecessors. Although the administration has framed this as an âAmerica firstâ agenda that will strengthen the nationâs standing around the world and bring prosperity at home, the U.S. national interest now appears tethered to the presidentâs personal vanities, prejudices, and his political and financial interests.
Is the recently articulated National Security Strategy a reliable guide as to how the administration will act going forward? Does the recent use of military power in Venezuela represent a one-off headline or does it foreshadow more aggressive action under the âDonroe Doctrineâ? And is this the sunsetting of once traditional U.S. values and the rise of foreign policy driven by displaying American power and might?
Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Council on Foreign Relationsâ Rebecca Lissner and the Stimson Centerâs Emma Ashford on these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.
-
The decision by the U.S. President Donald Trump administration to seize Venezuelan President NicholĂĄs Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, to stand trial in the United States reflects the administrationâs willingness to undertake a muscular intervention in the Western Hemisphere. Delcy RodrĂguez, who served as Maduroâs vice president since 2018, has taken over as the interim president and seems to be on an uncertain path forward working with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, TrumpâsâŻstatementâŻthat the United States plans to ârunâ Venezuela until a permanent, stable transition can be realized raises more questions than it answers, in Venezuela and about U.S. foreign policy at large.
What precisely are the Trump administrationâs objectives in Venezuela? Was this a law enforcement operation or a serious effort to create a new political reality in Venezuela? Who are the key Venezuelan players the United States needs to engage andâŻwhat is the role of the Venezuelan military? And what are the administrationâs intentions toward the Venezuelan oil industry and the role of American companies?
JoinâŻAaron David Miller as he engages the International Crisis Groupâs Phil Gunson, the Baker Instituteâs Francisco Monaldi, and Johns Hopkins SAISâs Cindy Arnson on these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.
-
As 2025 draws to a close, the fate of the Trump administrationâs twenty point plan to end the war in Gaza, disarming Hamas and withdrawing Israeli forces, and facilitate good governance, security and reconstruction, has run headlong into harsh Middle Eastern realities. The administration is promising a transition to phase two by the end of the year, but the status of the International Stabilization Force and an on the ground Palestinian governing structure seem more theoretical than real.
What are the chances of implementation of the Trump plan, particularly on security? What, or who, will actually govern Gaza? And what of the other U.S. efforts in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran? Join Aaron David Miller as he addresses these issues and others with Carnegieâs Marwan Muasher, Israel Policy Forumâs Nimrod Novik, and former Palestinian Authority adviser Manal Zeidan, on the next Carnegie Connects.
-
Itâs no coincidence that the framersâreflecting the importance of the legislative branchâlaid out the responsibilities and powers of Congress in Article I, with the executive second, and the judiciary third. And yet as 2025 draws to a close, the role of Congress seems overshadowed by the other branches.
Whatâs happened to skew the balance of power the founders intended? Does Congress still matter when it comes to shaping domestic policy and constraining the aggrandizement of presidential power? And on foreign policy, traditionally the purview of the executive branch, what role can, and should, Congress play? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Senator Chris Van Hollen, who sits on the Budget, Appropriations, and Foreign Relations Committees, on the next Carnegie Connects.
-
Perhaps no country in the Middle East has attracted more interest of the Trump administration than Saudi Arabia. President Trump took his first foreign trip there during his first term and he remains focused on the possibility of Israeli-Saudi normalization as part of a regional peace agreement in pursuit of a Nobel Peace prize. The visit of Crown Prince Muhammed bin SalmanâŻ(MBS) to the White House on November 18 has focused even more attention on the U.S.-Saudi relationship.
What are realistic expectations for the visit? What are the upsides, and down, of a reportedly discussed U.S.-Saudi defense pact? And what is Saudi Arabia prepared to do to facilitate the presidentâs plan for Gaza and to tackle the broader challenge of regional peace? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Michael Ratney, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, and Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, on the MBS visit to Washington and the road ahead for U.S.-Saudi relations on the next Carnegie Connects.
-
From covering the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and South Sudan, to examining Americaâs evolving status on the global stage, to mounting concerns about American democracy under the Trump Administration, Pulitzer Prize winning journalist and New York Times opinion columnist Nicholas Kristof has had plenty to cover throughout 2025. Kristofâs columns always inspire discussion and debate about the most pressing issues of our time.
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Kristof for one such discussion on the next Carnegie Connects, as they take a grand tour of the state and fate of the American Republic at home and abroad.
-
As President Donald Trump prepares for his upcoming trip to South Korea to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be on the agenda. South Korean PresidentâŻLee Jae Myung first suggested the meeting during his recent trip to Washington. Trump and Kim seem open to the possibility, with one major caveat: Kim has stated publicly that discussions of denuclearization are off the table. Whether or not that meeting occurs, North Koreaâs growing nuclear arsenal and deepening relationships with Russia and China are a persistent challenge for Washington.
How should the second Trump administration alter, or maintain, its approach to North Korea? âŻIs Washington reading Kim and the internal politics of Pyongyang correctly? And what role should China and South Korea play in U.S. strategy?
Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Jean H. Lee, the presidential chair of the East-West Center, and Joel S. Wit, a distinguished fellow in Asian and Security Studies at the Stimson Center, on these and other issues.
-
As we enter the third year of the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Trump administration has offered up a plan to end the war in Gaza. But can it be implemented? The goals of the Netanyahu government and Hamas seem all but irreconcilable. Meanwhile, the hostages and the Palestinian civilian population of Gaza continue to endure horrific conditions.
How does the war end? What does the future hold for the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict and prospects for a lasting solution? And what role is there for the Trump Administration and key Arab states moving forward?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research Centerâs Khalil Shikaki and the Middle East Instituteâs Natan Sachs to discuss these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.
- Laat meer zien
