Afleveringen
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Why did the Soviet Union collapse? Which lessons from Cold War history are relevant for China’s future?
To discuss the successes, failures, and strategies of Soviet leaders, ChinaTalk interviewed Yakov Feygin. Feygin is the author of Building a Ruin: The Cold War Politics of Soviet Economic Reform, which examines how various Soviet leaders, institutions, and economists attempted to boost Soviet growth and national power.
Co-hosting today is Jon Sine, writer of the Cogitations substack.
We discuss:
The strengths and limitations of the Stalinist economic model,
Khrushchev’s shift to “peaceful competition” with capitalism,
Alternative policy paths that could have saved the Soviet Union,
How technological optimism shaped Soviet reform efforts, inspiring the CCP in the process,
Parallels between the institutions of the Soviet Union and those of contemporary China,
The battle between political scientists and historians when analyzing the political economy of authoritarian states.
Outro music: Building a Ruin - Skyclad (Youtube link)
Links to all the books and papers referenced in this show are available on the ChinaTalk substack.
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林宏文是《晶片島上的光芒》一書的作者,這本書深入探討了台積電的歷史、管理方法和國際角色。作為台灣最資深的半導體記者之一、林宏文以其三十多年的行業經驗,為讀者呈現了一個全面而生動的台灣半導體產業發展故事。
訪談中、主要討論了以下幾個關鍵話題:
台積電的創立背景及其在全球半導體產業中的獨特定位
台灣政府在推動半導體產業發展中的角色,特別是工研院和科學園區的貢獻
台積電的管理模式,包括研發與製造部門的平衡以及人才培養策略
台灣半導體產業的國際競爭力,尤其是與三星等競爭對手的比較
台積電在全球地緣政治中的角色,以及"矽盾"這一概念的由來和影響
AI時代對半導體產業的影響,特別是對記憶體和邏輯晶片整合的需求
台灣與美國在看待國際關係上的差異,以及這種差異對台灣國際戰略的影響
Special thanks to the host of this interview, Arrian Ebrahimi of the Chip Capitols substack. Cohosted by ChinaTalk editors Nicholas Welch and Lily Ottinger.
Outtro music: Right Here Waiting, by Richard Marx. Youtube Link.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Welcome back to part two of our interview with Yasheng Huang 黄亚生, the author of The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline.
We cover a lot of ground in this two-hour installment. During the first hour, we discuss…
The aspects of imperial China’s governance Mao chose to embrace, and those he chose to abandon,
The factors enabling Mao’s radical policies compared to imperial rulers,
Why China was able to grow so much faster than India, despite the setbacks of the Cultural Revolution,
Statistical approaches for evaluating the effectiveness of autocratic development models,
China’s economic reforms and rural development policies in the 1980s,
How the events of 1989 permanently altered China’s trajectory,
Whether the rise of Xi Jinping was inevitable,
In the second hour, we discuss...
The Steelman case for why China needed a leader like Xi Jinping,
What sets Xi apart from his predecessors,
Succession challenges and the importance of term limits in authoritarian states,
Why engagement with China failed to produce political liberalization,
How the US could have better leveraged economic relations with China,
Creative approaches to human rights advocacy in China.
Outro music: Nothing to My Name (一无所有) by Cui Jian (崔健) (Youtube Link)
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Yasheng Huang 黄亚生 is the author of one of the decade’s greatest books about China — The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline. It’s a rich book, a product of a career of reflections, with each page delivering something novel and provocative.
In this first half of our two-part interview, we discuss…
How the imperial examination system (known as keju) shaped Chinese governance, culture, and society,
Why autocratic Chinese dynasties benefitted from a meritocratic bureaucracy,
Statistical methods for analyzing social mobility in imperial China,
How the keju system survived the Mongol conquest,
What the tradeoffs in the imperial exam system can teach us about the future economic prospects of China and Taiwan.
Co-hosting today is Ilari Mäkelä, host of the On Humans podcast.
NOTES (Courtesy of Ilari)
A Rough Timeline of Chinese history:
Pre–221 BCE: Disunity (e.g. Warring States)
221 BCE – 220: Unity (Qin & Han dynasties)
220 – 581: Disunity (“Han-Sui Interregnum”)
581 – 1911: Unity (Sui, Tang, Song, Yuan, Ming, and Qing Dynasties)
Historical figures
Emperor Wanli 萬曆帝 | Shen Kuo 沈括 (polymath) | Zhu Xi 朱熹 (classical philosopher) | Hong Xiuquan 洪秀全 (leader of the Taiping Rebellion) | Yuan Shikai 袁世凯 (military leader) | Chiang Kai-shek 蔣介石 (military leader and statesman)
Modern scholars
Ping-ti Ho 何炳棣 (historian) | Clair Yang (economist) | Joseph Needham (scientist and historian) | Daron Acemoglu | James Robinson
Historical terms
Keju civil service exams | Taiping Rebellion
REFERENCES
A lot of the original data discussed in the episode is original from Huang’s book. As an exception, Huang references his co-authored article on civil service exams and imperial stability, written with Clair Yang.
Outtro music: 等着你回来 by 白光, a 1930s Shanghai starlet https://open.spotify.com/track/0aHMT9dIdPDz094fc37Xq0?si=d1591ff2339d421c
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To discuss America’s comparative advantages in national competition and the structural forces that drive (and limit) innovation, ChinaTalk interviewed Kumar Garg.
Formerly an Obama official in the Office of Science and Technology Policy, Kumar spent several years at Schmidt Futures focusing on science and technology philanthropy. He has been a mentor and cheerleader for ChinaTalk over the years, and he is the president of the newly established Renaissance Philanthropy.
We discuss:
The inspiration behind Renaissance Philanthropy and its focus on mid-scale, field-transforming ideas
Strategies for identifying underexplored, high-impact projects — including weather forecasting, carbon sequestration, and datasets on neurocognition
Structural challenges for R&D funding at the level of government and universities
The role of focused research organizations like OpenAI in accelerating progress and understanding long-term drivers of productivity
A wide angle-view of US-China competition and strategic innovation
The underresearched importance of alliance management.
Outtro music:
Song 1 - If ye love me - Thomas Tallis and the Cambridge Singers (Youtube Link)
Song 2 - Recercare (I) - Francesco Spinacino and Robert Meunier (Youtube Link)
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Michael Collins is the acting chair of the National Intelligence Council (NIC). He has spent 28 years in the intelligence community, starting as a career analyst in the CIA focused on East Asia before moving into leadership roles. He served as chief of staff for the CIA deputy director and worked on modernization efforts in the agency.
We discuss…
How the intelligence community informs high-level policymaking,
Why different institutional approaches are needed to collect intelligence on non-state actors vs nation-state adversaries,
Challenges in assessing China’s technological and military capabilities,
“Narrative Intelligence” and areas where intelligence agencies have a unique edge,
Strategies for improving long-term forecasting and avoiding groupthink.
Outro music: Scorpions - Wind Of Change (Youtube Link)
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To discuss the post-election future of US competition policy, ChinaTalk interviewed Peter Harrell and Nazak Nikakhtar.
Nazak served in the Trump administration after a long career as a civil servant, where she was instrumental in shaping the Commerce Department’s work on China, first at the International Trade Administration and later leading the Bureau of Industry and Security. Peter worked in the Biden administration on the National Economic Council and National Security Council, focusing on international economics, export controls, and investment restrictions.
We discuss…
The role of the executive in setting the industrial policy agenda
Leadership shortcomings in the Biden and Trump administrations
Competition with China — bipartisan consensus, bureaucratic inertia, and strategies to stop wasting time.
Advice for America’s next president, from export controls to pharmaceutical decoupling and alliance management
Creative approaches to supply chain resilience
This is 2023 CSET report Jordan referenced (See the “Understanding the Intangibles section)
Outtro Music: Jun Mayuzumi - Black Room (Youtube Link)
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Jeffrey Ding is a professor at George Washington University, leading US scholar on China’s AI, and the creator of the ChinAI Substack. In honor of the publication of his new book, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers, enjoy this interview with Jeff from the ChinaTalk archives.
Jeff Ding argues in a 2023 paper that great powers must harness general-purpose technologies if they want to achieve global dominance. That is, diffusion capacity (not just innovation capacity) is critical to economic growth — and China actually fares much worse in diffusion capacity than mainstream narratives imply.
In this show, we discuss the historical underpinnings of that argument and apply it to AI today — drawing out policymaking lessons spanning centuries of technologically driven great power transitions. We also get into:
Why long-term productivity growth is driven by the diffusion of general-purpose technology, and what makes this so crucial for great power competition;
Historical lessons from the UK, Soviet Union, US, and Germany illustrating the cultural and policy roadblocks to tech diffusion;
The importance of decentralized systems, and how this helped America win the Cold War
Why China’s diffusion capacity lags behind its innovation capacity, and how America should avoid getting locked into any one technological trajectory.
Co-hosting is Teddy Collins, formerly of DeepMind and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
Outro music: 分享那奇沃夫/Prodby玉的单曲《亚克西》(Youtube Link)
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Thanks to The Innovation Alliance for sponsoring this episode. The Innovation Alliance is a coalition of research and development-based technology companies representing innovators, patent owners, and stakeholders who believe in the critical importance of maintaining a strong patent system that supports innovative enterprises of all sizes.
To discuss the domestic and international implications of patent policy, ChinaTalk interviewed Brian Pomper. Brian was the Chief International Trade Counsel to Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, and he is now a partner at Akin Gump.
We discuss:
The history of America’s innovation hegemony, from the signing of the Constitution to patent trolls and Elon Musk
Why big tech companies spent decades systematically attacking the foundations of the US patent system
The thermonuclear patent war of Apple vs Samsung
The evolution of Standard Essential Patents (SEPs) as a battleground for emerging tech competition
Why China’s approach to patent litigation is causing controversy in Europe
The intersection of patent policy and international trade agreements.
Outtro music: Minitel Rose - Magic Powder (Youtube Link)
Here's the 2-hour show on global tech standards from the ChinaTalk archives: Global Standards: What's the Deal? Spotify link, Apple Podcasts Link
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Here at ChinaTalk, we break the ice on all things international relations, and today we are diving into a topic that is snow joke — icebreakers!
We interviewed William Henagan and Robert Obayda, both directors of the NSC. We discuss:
How Canada, Finland, and the United States are leveling up their cooperation in the Arctic through the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort (ICE Pact);
The mechanics of industrial policy in the US government;
Why cranes matter for national security, and the benefits of using carrots vs sticks;
What icebreakers are for, and how Finland is punching above its weight in the NATO alliance.
Co-hosting today is former ChinaTalk intern Alexander Boyd, who is currently at the China Digital Times.
Outtro music: Arctic Monkeys — A Certain Romance (link) and Mardy Bum (link)
Pictured: the Russian icebreaker Yamal.
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Chris Kirchhoff was a founding member of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and previously worked in the Obama NSC. He recently published a book called Unit X: How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley Are Transforming the Future of War. He wrote:
“To the extent present military and civilian leadership is articulating its strategy, it is one built, for the most part, on a continuation of previous programmatic and budgetary trendlines. If there is a strategy for losing a future war in China, this is it.”
Unit X traces the evolution of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), a group of Pentagon insurgents who are fighting to change how the DoD relates to emerging technologies.
We discuss:
The origin story of DIU and its early struggles to break Pentagon bureaucracy;
How DIU leveraged “waiver authority” to circumvent red tape under Defense Secretary Ash Carter;
Why the defense industrial base is ill-equipped to keep pace with technological change;
The case for shifting more DoD spending to non-traditional tech companies;
Lessons from commercial spaceflight for future AI governance, including potential issues with a “Manhattan project for AI.”
Outtro music: 告五人 Accusefive - 愛人錯過 Somewhere in Time (Youtube Link)
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After decades of neoliberalism, how much can America’s bureaucrats crank the dial on effective industrial policy? Will the CHIPS Act succeed at reshoring high-tech manufacturing?
Next week is the Chips Act’s second anniversary. To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Ben Schwartz, the former director for national security at the CHIPS Program Office, which manages a $39 billion grant program appropriated by the CHIPS and Science Act.
We get into:
The methods and obstacles for American semiconductor policy;
How CHIPS Act guardrails aim to balance economic growth and national security;
The negotiation process for companies interested in receiving CHIPS Act funding;
Reshoring vs friend-shoring and the challenge of Chinese dominance in legacy chip manufacturing;
Staffing and organizational structure of the CHIPS Program Office, plus the role of Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo;
The challenge of collecting data on secretive semiconductor supply chains.
Outtro Music: The Rolling Stones - You Can’t Always Get What You Want (Youtube Link)
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This is a show about globalization, fashion design, and the future of manufacturing-based economic growth.
For a breather from the election chaos, ChinaTalk interviewed Will Lasry, Montreal-based designer, manufacturing specialist, and founder of Glass Factory. Will and his team are on a mission to make manufacturing transparent. They fly all around the world making documentaries on clothing factories and playing matchmaker between designers and producers. Check out his Youtube channel here.
We discuss:
How clothes are made, including the complicated processes behind distressed denim and other trends;
What makes a country an ideal destination for manufacturing clothing, and whether rising labor costs will drive the industry out of China entirely;
Xinjiang cotton, environmental destruction, and other unethical practices hanging over the fashion industry;
Why Gucci and other high-end designers are betting that “Made in India” will soon be even more chic than “Made in Italy.”
Co-hosting today is longtime ChinaTalk editor Irene Zhang.
Outtro music: Vinida Weng - WAIYA! (Youtube Link)
Thumbnail image: Link.
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What does JD think about currency, tariffs, and industrial policy?
How has the Strategic Patroleum Reserve evolved into new relevance with some fun new powers over the past few years, and how can America take lessons from this success and apply them to addressing critical minerals?
And what secrets of policy entrepreneurship can Arnab teach me?
To discuss we have on Arnab Datta of Employ America and Matt Klein of The Overshoot podcast.
Plus we get some parent corner!
Outtro music: Melody by Ash Island (matched my mood of wanting to scream things I don't understand) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHWWGm0nxYk
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Where is Congress on AI? How will a second Trump term impact US innovation? Does Congress have what it takes to step up and legislate in a world without Chevron?
To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Senator Todd Young of Indiana (R). He’s a rare breed on Capitol Hill these days: an actual legislator. Sen. Young drafted the Chips and Science Act with Sen. Schumer and is the co-author of my personal favorite bill this Congress which aims to establish an Office of Global Competition Analysis. He announced earlier this year that he would not be endorsing Trump’s candidacy this cycle.
We get into…
Biden’s woes
The case for an office of tech net assessment
The future of tech legislation post-Chevron
The Senate’s AI Policy Roadmap and where the GOP is on AI regulation
Chinese espionage and high-skill immigration policy
Outtro music: AC/DC - Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap (Youtube Link)
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How can Shakespeare help explain the dynamics we're seeing around Biden today?
We get into King Lear, Richard II, Macbeth and Coriolanus to illustrate themes on conniving courtiers, political marriages, and politicians facing the end.
Joining us today: Eliot Cohen, author of The Hollow Crown, two dramaturgs Drew Lichtenberg and Kate Pitt, as well as actor Phil Schneider.
Kate's substack: https://shakespearenews.substack.com/
Phil's still looking for an agent! Reach out to me [email protected] to connect with him!
Outtro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEqnXNsAFL8
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What will it take for the US to remain competitive in 21st-century technologies? Is high state capacity a thing of the past?
To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed David Lin, Abigail Kukura, and Venkat Somala from the Special Competitive Studies Project. SCSP’s new report outlines exactly how America should compete in the tech-powered future of geopolitics.
We get into…
The role of public-private research partnerships and SCSP’s relationship with the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence;
A strategy for upgrading US institutions with the help of emerging technologies like AI;
The historical decline of government-backed research in the US;
China’s industrial espionage and the potential for stolen innovations to consolidate authoritarianism across the globe;
Bureaucratic moonshots and techniques for communicating urgency to the slow-moving American polity.
Our past episode on tech net assessment: Crafting A National Tech Strategy and Reviving Net Tech Assesment (Spotify Link) (Apple Podcasts Link)
Our past episode on bureaucratic moonshots: Peter Harrell on Bureaucratic Barriers to Competition (Spotify Link) (Apple Podcasts Link)
Outtro music: SadSvit - Касета (Youtube Link)
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How could AI change the global balance of power? What could the US and allies do to preserve national moats?
To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed the CEO of Scale AI, Alex Wang. In a blog post announcing Scale’s $1 billion fundraising success, Alex wrote that Scale is aiming to grow into the world's data foundry for AI.
Alex grew up in Los Alamos, New Mexico, with two physicist parents who worked in the national labs, and he started Scale in college.
I am particularly excited to have Alex on the show because he is perhaps the only private-sector AI leader working with the DoD and thinking seriously about the national security implications of AI.
We discuss:
The three key factors limiting rapid AGI takeoff, and how quickly these barriers will be overcome;
China’s strengths and weaknesses in the race for AGI;
National security implications for winning (or losing) the AI race;
Prospects for AI net assessment and the case for a Manhattan project for data;
Methods to prevent AI espionage without kneecapping innovation or profiling immigrants.
Outtro music: Zach Bryan - Pink Skies (Youtube Link)
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Is Cold War II upon us? What should America do to prevent it from becoming a hot war?
To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Dmitri Alperovitch. Dmitri emigrated from Russia in 1994 at age 13. He co-founded the leading cybersecurity startup Crowdstrike, and has spent the past four years running his new think tank, the Silverado Policy Accelerator.
He's also the author of the new book World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century.
We discuss:
Lessons from Cold War crises that almost went nuclear;
Underappreciated parallels between the Soviet Union and China today;
Groupthink in Washington as well as in Silicon Valley;
What a productive economic relationship with China would look like given national security concerns;
Some bold military and diplomatic recommendations for Taiwan;
… and more!
Work with Matt at Open Philanthropy: Clickable link, URL: https://jobs.ashbyhq.com/openphilanthropy/f33460e1-e092-46ae-918a-85338ffad9a3
Kennedy's speech to the American people regarding the Berlin Wall: JFK Library.
Outtro music: Leningradskie mosty from 1957 USSR
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Jake Newby is the author of Concrete Avalanche, a free newsletter about music from China. Today, he's here to play you some of his favorite tracks from 2024 thus far — including everything from psychedelic rock to rare Uyghur folk, and from Beijing kawaii core to Tibetan Buddhist chants mixed with footwork.
00:00:00 'Narcissus' Death' — Backspace (read more)
00:05:38 '红喷泉' — Pepper Heart (read more)
00:09:35 'Mail from the River' (live) — Wang Wen (read more)
00:15:30 '她的力量来自海洋' — Yang Haisong & Wang Xiaofeng (read more)
00:22:32 'Ollie' — 西红、CNdY (read more)
00:26:43 'Lost in Bamboos' — Cola Ren (read more)
00:30:38 'Southern Shanghai' — Voision Xi (read more)
00:34:20 'Liquid' — Duck Fight Goose (read more)
00:36:54 '玉林敬酒歌‘ — Run Run Run (read more)
00:40:35 'Mountains in Yukashima' — Birdstriking (read more)
00:45:38 'SonicBaby' — XIAOWANG (read more)
00:48:25 'My Vagina' — Fakeorgasm (read more)
00:50:25 'Mantra of Vajra Armour' — Howie Lee (read more)
00:54:08 'Bash Bayawan Muqam' — Mekit Dolan Muqam Group (read more)
00:59:13 'Μῆνιν ἄειδε, θεὰ παραμαινομένη ἐμοῦ...' — Ὁπλίτης (read more)
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