Afleveringen
-
Jeff Nadu faces backlash after a betting screenshot from a Novig post goes viral, with viewers zooming in on what appears to be a $1.06 wager and sparking criticism over how he presents himself as a sports bettor. The situation escalates as the screenshot spreads online, fueling debate around credibility, unit sizing, and perception in public-facing betting content. Meanwhile, a $35K crypto dispute involving a university student raises questions around platform rules, interpretation of written terms, and accountability in high-stakes markets. The episode also reacts to the latest storylines from the NBA and NHL Finals.
Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg, and George Tsilfidis on Circle Back, presented by ProphetX, to break down all three storylines. The crew reacts, debates, and unpacks the controversy, providing sharp takes and real-time analysis across sports betting, crypto disputes, and the NBA and NHL Finals.
๐ข Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up!
๐ New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
๐ต Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
๐ต Follow George - https://x.com/georgetsilfidis
๐ต Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg12
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, George Tsilfidis and Geoff Fienberg
1:24 - NBA Finals
11:09 - Stanley Cup Finals
24:29 - Other weekend recap
49:55 - $1 Bettor?
1:28;33 - Student vs. PM
1:36:00 - Your comments
1:44:00 - Chopping Block
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
#CirclesBack #CirclesOff #JeffNadu #Crypto #NBA #NHL #SportsBetting #BettingControversy #NBAFinals #NHLFinals #Novig #ProphetX #RobPizzola #GeoffFienberg #GeorgeTsilfidis #JacobGramegna
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
These New Betting Laws are already getting pushback after Massachusetts introduced a rule requiring sportsbooks to notify bettors when their accounts are limited and provide a reason. On paper, it’s framed as transparency for consumers, but early reactions from bettors suggest it doesn’t actually explain much—just a polished way of saying winning action isn’t welcome. The debate has quickly turned into whether this is real protection for bettors or just another layer of messaging that changes nothing about how limits are applied.
Also on today’s show, the ongoing Haralabob vs Matt Kalish feud continues to escalate, with Haralabos Voulgaris challenging the consistency and fairness of industry narratives around prediction markets and sportsbook growth strategies. The discussion has spilled into broader questions about hypocrisy, market evolution, and how legacy betting companies justified their early expansion tactics. On top of that, hedge funds and trading firms like SIG are reportedly struggling to retain or recruit top-tier traders, as prediction markets and independent trading opportunities give sharp talent more freedom than ever before.
On today’s LIVE Circle Back, host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter of BA Analytics, pro sports bettor Chinamaniac, and sharp bettor Isaac Rose-Berman. The show goes live Thursdays at 4 PM ET on Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network.
๐ข Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up!
๐ New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
๐ต Follow Porter - https://x.com/BAanalytics_
๐ต Follow China - https://x.com/chinamaniac
๐ต Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circle Back w/ Isaac Rose-Berman, Porter, China and Jacob Gramegna
1:30 - Haralabob vs. Matt Kalish
13:28 - NBA Finals through game 1
19:41 - Hedge funds are trying and failing to attract traders
26:31 - Massachusetts's transparency on limits is creating complaints
39:31 - Reading your comments
47:26 - The unfortunate scam
53:17 - Risk your life for $100k?
1:06:48 - Chopping Block
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
#sportsbetting #predictionmarkets #sportsbook #circlesoff #circlesoffpodcast #circlesofflive #bettingnews #haralabosvoulgaris #kalish #hedgefunds #massachusetts #gamblingnews
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
-
Circles Off sits down with sharp bettor Thon Misser (@ThonMisser) for a deep dive into how he actually approaches modern betting markets, from live wagering to prediction markets and everything in between.
Thon has quietly built a reputation for finding edges in places most bettors ignore — including niche sports like Japanese baseball, reality TV markets, and newer prediction market platforms. In this conversation with Rob Pizzola, he breaks down how he thinks about betting today, where his edge comes from, and why the betting landscape is changing faster than most people realize.
We also get into his live betting process, how he structures his week across different sports and markets, and what it really takes to operate at a sharp level in today’s environment. Later in the episode, the conversation shifts into prediction markets, insider trading debates, and whether these new formats are going to coexist with or disrupt traditional sportsbooks.
This is part of the Circles Off interview series presented by ProphetX, focused on sharp thinking, betting markets, prediction markets, and real process-driven discussion.
If you’re interested in sports betting, prediction markets, live betting strategy, or how sharp bettors actually think, this episode delivers a rare inside look.
๐ข Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up!
๐ New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
๐ต Follow Thon - https://x.com/ThonMisser
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circles Off interview with Rob Pizzola and Thon Misser
1:23 - The origins of Thon Misser
9:38 - Thon Misser's place in the current sports betting landscape
14:59 - Weekly betting habits
25:18 - Thon Misser's betting focuses
41:00 - Learning more about Thon Misser
45:21 - Live betting strategy
56:59 - The niche markets
1:03:20 - Prediction Markets and Insider Trading
1:29:23 - Rapid fire questions
1:37:31 - +EV and -EV
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
#CirclesOff #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #RobPizzola #BettingStrategy #LiveBetting #SharpBettors #BettingPodcast #ThonMisser
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
A betting influencer, Taylor Mathis, has sparked controversy after a Game 7 betting slip post showing one side of a wager while appearing to place another, leading to a wave of backlash and confusion across Gambling Twitter. The crew breaks down the fallout, the viral $1.7 million parlay sweat that divided the community, whether sportsbooks should ever void bets placed in error, and the growing debate over professional bettors versus casual gamblers. Plus, thoughts on the NBA Finals between the Spurs and Knicks, the Stanley Cup Final between the Golden Knights and Hurricanes, and whether penalty shootouts are still the right way to decide major soccer matches after the Champions League Final.
Circle Back is part of The Hammer Betting Network and features Jacob Gramegna alongside Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg, and Jason Cooper discussing the biggest stories in sports betting. From industry controversies and betting strategy debates to the latest headlines across sports, the crew gives their reactions to the topics everyone is talking about.
๐ข Check out ProphetX, the number 1 sports prediction market, and use code CIRCLESOFF when you sign up!
๐ New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
๐ต Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
๐ต Follow Jason - https://x.com/takesbyj
๐ต Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg12
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circle Back w/ Rob Pizzola, Jason Cooper, Geoff Fienberg and Jacob Gramegna
1:28 - Taylor Mathis' bet slip mistake blows up on Gambling Twitter
20:32 - Myles Garrett LIVE trade reaction
27:17 - Parlay Prince's $1.7 million parlay
34:33 - NBA Finals/Stanley Cup
47:51 - Should the Champions League be decided by penalties?
54:53 - "Newbies" ruined sports betting?
1:06:35 - "Professionals" ruined sports betting?
1:14:36 - Reading your comments
1:22:17 - How likely are they to...
1:27:36 - Chopping block
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s camp sending a legal warning to Underdog over a foul-baiting board game has sparked a much larger conversation about where the line is between creative sports content and athlete representation rights. Jacob Gramegna, Chris Dierkes, Mike (Peanut Bettor), and Shipper break down what actually happened, why Underdog is refusing to back down, and what this says about how sports brands, players, and platforms are colliding in real time.
The crew also dives into a major betting exchange controversy involving bot errors and inconsistent market voiding decisions. When obvious pricing mistakes happen, should exchanges always void the market to protect fairness, or should every bet stand once it’s matched? That debate leads into a broader discussion on market integrity, prediction markets, and whether the industry applies rules consistently or selectively depending on who benefits.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
๐ต Follow Chris - https://x.com/flupnolide
๐ต Follow Mike - https://x.com/peanut_bettor
๐ต Follow Shipper - https://x.com/shipthejustice
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Peanut Bettor, Chris Dierkes and Shipper
2:08 - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sends cease and desist letter to Underdog
12:10 - Caesars makes a "business decision" with winning bettor
22:21 - Betfair sparks huge debate after voiding wagers
33:01 - Are prediction market representatives hypocrites?
42:35 - Twitter has become a market integrity infrastructure
48:00 - What I love most about sports betting
52:57 - Foazn gets beaten on Jannik Sunner -10000
58:23 - Chopping Block
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
Most bettors are losing money on player props because they’re using the wrong inputs.
If you’re looking at a player’s last 10, 15, or 20 games to project a prop, you’re not finding an edge — you’re creating a false one.
In this video, Rob Pizzola breaks down one of the most common and costly mistakes in sports betting: treating hit rates like probabilities. It might look like math. It might feel like an edge. But it’s neither.
Instead, Rob explains why hit rate thinking breaks down, starting with why endpoint selection completely distorts results and why context inside those games matters more than the results themselves. He also explains why alternates don’t fix a bad process and why backward-looking stats fail to project forward outcomes.
From there, he introduces the framework that actually matters: volume, quality, and conversion.
Using real NBA examples, Rob shows how two players with identical box score outputs can have completely different projections once you look under the surface, and why most bettors miss this entirely.
Finally, he connects it back to how real betting markets work today, and why competing with serious groups requires more than basic trend-spotting or hit rate filtering.
This is not about picks or parlays. It’s about understanding the process behind the bets.
If you’re serious about improving how you bet player props, this is the framework you need to understand.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
DraftKings co-founder responds directly to recent criticism and sparks a wider debate about prediction markets, how sportsbooks are evolving, and whether the industry is heading in the right direction or not. The crew breaks down that situation alongside a NASCAR betting controversy where a wager was graded as a loss instead of being voided, triggering backlash over how sportsbooks handle unexpected outcomes and settlement rules. Daniel Cormier also gets pulled into a separate betting dispute after questioning whether a bet should stand if the counterparty didn’t have the financial ability to pay.
The crew is joined by Rob Pizzola, Kirk Evans, and Geoff Fienberg on this episode of Circle Back on Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. They also run through a weekend betting and sports recap including Victor Wembanyama’s dominance, discussions around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the New York Knicks’ form, and Mitch Marner’s hot streak. Plus NBA opening tip-off betting angles, the Bet Pass schedule release, and a special announcement to close the show.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
๐ต Follow Kirk - https://x.com/KirkEvans0
๐ต Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg12
๐ต Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circle Back w/ Rob Pizzola, Kirk Evans, Geoff Fienberg and Jacob Gramegna
1:27 - Recapping the weekend of sports
29:05 - Bettors sound off on losing their wagers on Kyle Busch
38:21 - Matt Kalish's crash-out extends into another week
46:56 - Bet Bash schedule starting to be released
56:12 - "Data don't matter"
1:05:46 - Daniel Cormier needs help settling this debate
1:11:42 - Chopping block
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
DraftKings co-founder Matt Kalish set Gambling Twitter on fire after a viral rant about prediction markets, sharp bettors, retail gamblers, and the future of sports betting. Jacob Gramegna, Joey Knish, Storm Pig, and Porter of BA Analytics react to the entire situation, break down the backlash, and discuss what the conversation says about the current state of the gambling industry. The crew also dives into the viral “Sports betting will be dead in 5-10 years” take, whether traditional betting research still works, and why so many bettors feel the space is changing rapidly.
The show also covers Dana White asking President Donald Trump to help reverse the 90 percent limit on gambling loss deductions for US taxpayers, why the gambling tax issue has become a major talking point across the industry, and plenty more betting discourse from the week. Circle Back LIVE airs every Thursday at 4 PM ET on Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network, hosted by Jacob Gramegna with rotating guests from the sports betting and analytics space.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
๐ต Follow Knish - https://x.com/JoeyKnish22
๐ต Follow Storm - https://x.com/storm_pig
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Joey Knish, Porter and Storm Pig
2:41 - Matt Kalish goes on a rant about prediction markets
13:57 - Actually being able to get down on Fanatics
18:58 - Insider trading on Survivor
26:24 - If you don't nearly go bust...
34:22 - NFL Survivor updates + GRP Wins new service
39:30 - Sports betting, 5-10 years from now
43:58 - Dana White's letter to Trump
52:40 - Chopping Block
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
In this Circles Off Q&A, Rob Pizzola is joined by Plus EV Analytics, Matt Buchalter, for a deep dive into sports betting modeling — how it actually works in practice, what separates good models from bad ones, and how sharp bettors think about building and evaluating their edge.
This episode is built around 10 of the toughest modeling questions pulled directly from Circles Off content and community discussion. The conversation covers how to start a model from scratch, when a model is strong enough to bet real money, and how to deal with early season uncertainty like small samples, roster turnover, and regression questions. Rob and Matt also explore what matters more between getting the mean right or the distribution right, how to think about closing line value thresholds, and how to separate variance from a broken edge when results turn against you.
They also get into Bayesian vs frequentist thinking, how professional bettors evaluate their models over time, and which inputs are often overrated or underrated when building a betting model. For anyone serious about sports betting models, market pricing, or long-term edge creation, this is a practical, sharp breakdown from two experienced voices in the space.
Subscribe to Circles Off for more sharp betting conversations, modeling breakdowns, and market analysis.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
๐ต Follow Matt - https://x.com/PlusEVAnalytics
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circles Off Q&A with Rob Pizzola and PlusEVAnalytics
1:19 - Question 1: Starting a model from scratch
4:01 - Question 2: When your model is good enough to trust
7:32 - Question 3: Most common mistake moddlers make
10:40 - Question 4: Bayesian or frequentist
15:40 - Question 5: Real winners vs. variance
19:18 - Question 6: How do you handle the early-season problems?
22:46 - Question 7: Mean vs. distribution
24:06 - Question 8: Handling the stuff that you cannot model
29:10 - Question 9: Handling a model that starts to lose
32:57 - Question 10: Feature that bettors overrate and underrate when building models
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
In this episode of Circles Off, Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola and Matt Buchalter as they react to a viral NBA Same Game Parlay strategy from Guy Boston Sports that has been circulating across YouTube.
The group breaks down the ideas presented in the video titled “My Winning Same Game Parlay Strategy for the NBA,” which has gathered tens of thousands of views, and examines whether the logic actually holds up in real sports betting markets.
Rob and Matt take a sharp, analytical look at the strategy, questioning the assumptions behind NBA same game parlays, discussing where these types of betting systems often go wrong, and highlighting why something that sounds good on paper doesn’t always translate into real edge or long-term profitability.
Throughout the discussion, they evaluate the video from a sharp bettor’s perspective, separating entertainment-driven betting content from strategies that are actually useful for bettors trying to win consistently.
This is part of the Circles Off reaction series, where we review popular sports betting content and determine whether the advice being shared is actionable or misleading.
Topics include NBA betting, same game parlays, sports betting strategy, and critical breakdowns of betting advice circulating on YouTube and social media.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
๐ต Follow Matt - https://x.com/PlusEVAnalytics
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
The UFC betting market is under scrutiny again after suspicious line movement on Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley caused sportsbooks to pull the fight entirely before Brady won as a massive underdog. The crew also discusses Sean Strickland upsetting Khamzat Chimaev, new legislation aimed at sportsbook limiting practices in New Jersey, and the viral World Cup betting strategy claiming bettors can “guarantee” profits by backing 14 teams.
Jacob Gramegna hosts Rob Pizzola, Jason Cooper, and George Tsilfidis on Circle Back, a weekly Circles Off show from The Hammer Betting Network focused on sports betting news, betting controversies, prediction markets, sportsbook behavior, and gambling industry discussions.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
๐ต Follow George - https://x.com/georgetsilfidis
๐ต Follow Jason - https://x.com/takesbyj
๐ต Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circle Back w/ Rob Pizzola, George Tsilfidis, Jason Cooper and Jacob Gramegna
1:33 - Another big weekend of sports
23:09 - Another UFC betting scandal
45:32 - World Cup betting trick
55:44 - New laws on limiting entering the market
1:06:44 - Reading your comments + news about the Circles Off channel
1:19:43 - NFL's pivot to streaming
1:24:34 - Worst people to rad trip with
1:28:12 - Chopping block
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
A sports bettor on Twitter revealed he was missing the last bit of money needed to pay rent, so he decided to tail a Dub Club pick seller that was being promoted as a winning bettor. The story sparked a massive discussion about gambling responsibly, the dangers of relying on sports betting for income, and the growing trust issues around pick-selling culture online. The crew also reacts to another Gambling Twitter controversy involving a bettor posting an empty Cavaliers bet slip for engagement before eventually placing the wager at a much worse number after getting called out publicly. Plus, more discussion around the ongoing drama, accountability, and credibility problems surrounding betting content online.
Jacob Gramegna is joined by Mike (Mr. PeanutBettor), Joey Knish, and storm_pig for another episode of Circle Back on Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. The panel breaks down the biggest stories, controversies, and conversations happening across Gambling Twitter and the sports betting world.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO’s New Live Betting Screen → https://bit.ly/4lsovnG
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
๐ต Follow Mike - https://x.com/peanut_bettor
๐ต Follow Knish - https://x.com/joeyknish22
๐ต Follow Storm- https://x.com/storm_pig
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circle Back Friday with Jacob Gramegna, Mike (Peanut Bettor) , Joey Knish, and Storm Pig
1:33 - Tailing Dub Club picks with rent money
12:48 - Steve Fezzik's return fire
18:52 - Posting empty bet slips
25:33 - Who is your counterparty?
39:04 - Most likely to...
47:44 - The Prop Firm scam?
54:21 - Chopping Block
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
In this episode of Legendary Loopholes on Circles Off, Jacob Gramegna is joined by Matt Buchalter, also known as Plus EV Analytics, to break down one of the most incredible NBA betting edges you’ll ever hear.
Matt walks through how he discovered a Same Game Parlay error at an offshore sportsbook that created a massive edge. What started as a small observation quickly turned into an opportunity to generate thousands in profit.
Using a real example from a Toronto Raptors vs Dallas Mavericks game, the two dive into exactly how the loophole worked, how it was bet, and how it ultimately played out. The story includes a dramatic finish, where a late, seemingly meaningless shot ended up deciding the outcome.
This is a full breakdown of the process behind identifying sportsbook mistakes, capitalizing on edges, and understanding how these rare opportunities exist in the betting market.
If you’re interested in sports betting strategy, +EV betting, and real stories from sharp bettors, this is an episode you won’t want to miss.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO’s New Live Betting Screen → https://bit.ly/4lsovnG
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Matt - https://x.com/PlusEVAnalytics
๐ต Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
THE HAMMER'S CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
#SportsBetting #Betting #NFL #bettingtips #bettingstrategy #bettingstrategies #bettingadvice #gambling
The Hammer Betting Network is an industry leader in providing trusted sports betting content. Visit The Hammer HQ's channel page for access to all of the network's YouTube channels, as well as more content from this channel specifically. Check out our website at https://thehammer.bet/ to find all of The Hammer's content, including videos and articles.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
A viral tweet claiming sportsbooks “screw their customers” gets broken down — and the math behind it doesn’t hold up. The crew digs into how betting markets actually work, why pricing is often misunderstood, and how public perception of sportsbooks gets shaped by viral takes. They also react to a bizarre identity verification request from BallyBet that raises questions about how far sportsbooks are going with compliance, plus a broader discussion on prediction markets and how a small percentage of informed participants drive most of the efficiency.
Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola, George Tsilfidis, and Geoff Fienberg on Circle Back, part of The Hammer Betting Network, to react to the biggest stories from the betting world. From sportsbook practices and viral betting discourse to industry trends and market dynamics, the crew breaks it all down.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
๐ต Follow George - https://x.com/georgetsilfidis
๐ต Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17
๐ต Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circle Back w/ Rob Pizzola, George Tsilfidis, Geoff Fienberg and Jacob Gramegna
1:07 - Weekend sports reaction
25:48 - How to actually calculate sportsbook hold
38:56 - If you can't convincingly articulate your edge...
47:22 - Craziest sportsbook identity verification?
54:18 - Reading your comments
1:07:30 - Peanut Bettor's Tier Lists
1:21:45 - Chopping Block
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
This episode covers a wide range of topics across betting, prediction markets, and probabilistic thinking. We start with the Brendan Sorsby situation after reports surfaced about a major gambling-related issue involving the Texas Tech QB, including over 10,000 bets placed dating back to 2022. The conversation focuses on what this means for gambling integrity in college sports and the broader responsibility discussion that comes with it.
From there, the panel reacts to Isaac Rose-Berman’s recent article on prediction markets and the way they are positioned as an alternative to traditional sportsbooks. The discussion explores whether that framing is accurate, how these platforms actually generate profit, and what bettors often misunderstand about their structure. The group also breaks down a viral take from Plus EV Analytics on parlay thinking and how human intuition struggles with probability when outcomes are layered together.
Host Jacob Gramegna is joined throughout the episode by Joey Knish, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Chris Dierkes (Flupnolide), a trader at Novig, with all four contributors involved in the full discussion across gambling, markets, and bettor psychology.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO’s New Live Betting Screen → https://bit.ly/4lsovnG
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
๐ต Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42
๐ต Follow Knish - https://x.com/joeyknish22
๐ต Follow Chris - https://x.com/flupnolide
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circle Back Friday with Jacob Gramegna, Isaac Rose-Bermna, Joey Knish, and Chris Dierkes
2:30 - NCAA QB suffering from a gambling addiction
14:17 - Isaac's piece on prediction markets
25:07 - Leviathan of Locks re-emerges
32:24 - Abstract probabilistic thinking
41:39 - Caitlin Clark 54+ points
46:51 - The end of horse racing?
53:18 - Blue button vs. red button
59:57 - Chopping block
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
In this episode of Circles Off, Rob Pizzola sits down with Jon Sadow, VP of Sportsbook Product at FanDuel, to break down the launch of Bet Protect+.
This new feature, introduced during the NBA Playoffs, allows bettors to pay a small fee to insure their wagers against player injuries. But how does Bet Protect+ actually work, and what does it mean for bettors in practice?
Rather than speculation, we go straight to the source. Jon Sadow, the driving force behind Bet Protect+, walks through the thinking behind the product, how it was built, and what problems it aims to solve for recreational bettors.
Rob Pizzola asks the important questions from a bettor’s perspective, digging into pricing, value, and how this type of feature fits into the broader sports betting ecosystem.
Whether you’re a casual bettor looking for added protection or a more experienced bettor trying to understand the math behind these features, this conversation provides valuable insight into one of the newest innovations in the space.
This is a must-watch for anyone betting on the NBA Playoffs or interested in how sportsbooks continue to evolve their products.
Make sure to like, comment, and subscribe for more interviews, breakdowns, and sports betting insights from Circles Off and The Hammer Betting Network.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
๐ต Follow Jon - https://x.com/jonsadow
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
A U.S. soldier is now at the center of a massive betting controversy after allegedly using classified information tied to a secret mission to make over $400,000 on Polymarket. The situation has sparked a major debate around insider trading, prediction markets, and where the line is drawn between public information and national security. Things escalated further when Donald Trump weighed in on the case, comparing it to legendary sports betting controversies and suggesting it may not be as clear-cut as it seems. The crew also breaks down Warren Buffett’s latest comments on legalized gambling, where he labeled the industry a “tax on the wealthy,” adding fuel to an already heated discussion about the long-term impact of sports betting expansion.
On top of that, the episode covers Caesars Sportsbook’s partnership with the Westgate SuperBook and what it could mean for the broader sports betting market. With bettors already reacting strongly to the consolidation of odds and independent pricing, the crew dives into whether this move signals a larger industry shift or just another step in the inevitable tightening of the space.
Hosted by Jacob Gramegna, this episode of Circle Back on Circles Off features Rob Pizzola, Kirk Evans, and Geoff Fienberg as they react, debate, and break down the biggest stories in sports betting and prediction markets.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
๐ต Follow Kirk- https://x.com/KirkEvans0
๐ต Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17
๐ต Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circle Back w/ Rob Pizzola, Kirk Evans, Geoff Fienberg and Jacob Gramegna
1:17 - Recapping the weekend of sports
21:39 - US Soldier wins $400k on Polymarket using classified intel
35:21 - How a trader made $170k using a prediction market bug
43:18 - Hardrock pays out $1.86 million parlay
52:26 - Warren Buffet's indictment on gambling
1:01:38 - Reading your comments
1:13:04 - Westgate merges with Westgate Superbook
1:18:44 - Chopping block
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
Welcome to Circles Off! In this episode, Rob Pizzola reacts to the 2026 Sports Betting Superlatives blog written by Ferris (FerrisB_86), one of the most well-known voices in the sports betting space.
This blog doesn’t hold back — featuring bold takes, callouts, and “most likely to” superlatives across the industry, including Rob himself and others from The Hammer Betting Network. Some of it hits, some of it misses, but all of it sparks conversation.
Rob reads through the article for the first time and gives his unfiltered thoughts on the takes, the narratives, and what it says about the current state of sports betting Twitter.
If you agree or disagree with anything from the blog, drop a comment below — Rob will be checking and responding to your thoughts.
Make sure to like, subscribe, and comment your questions. Join our Discord community to dive deeper into sports betting discussions, strategy, and more.
โก๏ธ Ferris' blog: https://parttimerposts.blogspot.com/2026/04/2026-sports-betting-superlatives.html
โก๏ธ Ferris' Circles Off interview: https://youtu.be/xSRFGRL57Ig?si=AKamU45WKYYqxmSK
๐ New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO’s New Live Betting Screen → https://bit.ly/4lsovnG
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
#SportsBetting #Betting #circleback #bettingtips #bettingstrategy #bettingstrategies #bettingadvice #gambling
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
FanDuel’s new BetProtect Plus feature is getting a lot of attention — but is it actually worth it? We break down how the 3% premium works, why it might seem appealing to casual bettors, and the major flaws that make it a losing play long term. From guaranteed negative EV scenarios to why using it on unders makes no sense, we explain what bettors are missing and why this “protection” could be costing you more than you think. Plus, we discuss the marketing angle behind the rollout and why this might be a win for sportsbooks, even if it’s a loss for bettors.
We also get into the ongoing debate around unit shaming after a bettor was criticized for the size of their wager, and whether that kind of reaction is justified. Then, we break down the early payout controversy after Paddy Power paid out Arsenal to win the Premier League — only for the title race to flip after a major result. Was it a smart marketing move or a costly mistake? All that and plenty more from across the sports betting world on this episode of Circle Back, hosted by Jacob Gramegna with Rob Pizzola, Kirk Evans, and Geoff Fienberg.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO 14 Days Free → http://bit.ly/427Zkhq
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
๐ต Follow Kirk- https://x.com/KirkEvans0
๐ต Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17
๐ต Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circle Back w/ Rob Pizzola, Kirk Evans, Geoff Fienberg and Jacob Gramegna
1:27 - Weekend recap: NHL/NBA playoffs, NFL, and PGA Tour
20:28 - FanDuel introduces its Bet Protect+ with praise and backlash
44:53 - Unit shaming debate
53:57 - Bad decision or stroke of genius?
1:00:17 - Reading your comments
1:07:22 - GRP Wins exposed over Hornets bets?
1:28:58 - Betting for entertainment vs. profit
1:32:57 - Chopping block
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices -
A major Twitter Bookie Scam is unfolding as Leviathan Locks gets exposed, but the story doesn’t stop there. What started as accusations quickly spirals into a much bigger situation involving Boomers Bets, who had been publicly vouching for Leviathan Locks while allegedly paying back victims behind the scenes. As more information comes out, the connection between the two raises serious questions about how deep this operation went and how many bettors were affected. Plus, we break down Chris Dierkes’ recent article on betting philosophy, including his stance on risk tolerance and whether bettors should be more aggressive, and call out some of the worst sports betting content currently coming from major media outlets.
Circle Back is hosted by Jacob Gramegna and features Mike (Mr. PeanutBettor), BA Analytics, and Chinamaniac as they react to the latest news, drama, and discourse across betting Twitter and the sports betting industry.
๐ New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
๐ Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR
๐ต Get Betstamp PRO’s New Live Betting Screen → https://bit.ly/4lsovnG
LINKS
๐ฎ Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
โ๏ธ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
๐จ The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
๐ต Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
โฌ๏ธ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
๐ช Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
๐ต Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
๐ต Follow Mike - https://x.com/peanut_bettor
๐ต Follow China - https://x.com/chinamaniac
๐ต Follow Porter - https://x.com/@BAanalytics_
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
๐จ https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
๐ https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Circle Back Friday with Jacob Gramegna, Mike (Mr. PeanutBettor), Joey Knish, and Chris Dierkes
1:23 - Leviathan Locks and Boomer's Bets exposed?
17:29 - Taking bigger risks
25:18 - Not a single person bet this!
28:30 - Reading your comments
36:14 - Odds of walking up to a random guy
39:48 - Cashing out for vibes
42:38 - Settle the debate
46:38 - Chopping block
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices - Laat meer zien
