Afleveringen
-
What have we learned from the first two weeks of the Trump administrationâs approach to executive actions?
Ryan Goodman is a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Lawâs Just Security blog. According to Goodman, behind the Trump administrationâs Executive Orders and actions is a claim of executive authority âdifferent in character than anything thatâs preceded it.â On issues such as birthright citizenship, TikTok, and immigration, the Trump administration has claimed the right to override Congressional statutes, while Congress, so far at least, has been hesitant to assert its own constitutional powers. Goodman shares his perspective on what has transpired at the FBI, the Department of Justice, and the military, and explains what to look for in the weeks and months ahead in regard to tests of resilience of these institutions and, more broadly, the separation of powers in our constitutional government.
-
What will immigration policy look like in the second Trump administration? How will it affect the country? To discuss, we are joined by Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a leading expert on immigration and Senior Fellow at the American Immigration Council. In a wide-ranging analysis that covers the complex situation at the borderâas well as the political and policy choices facing Trump and CongressâReichlin-Melnick considers possible paths forward on immigration for the Trump administration and for the country. Reichlin-Melnick notes that while the president has wide authority to change immigration policies through executive action (particularly on legal immigration), some of Trumpâs promises like mass deportations face significant political and legal constraints. This is a must-watch and nuanced Conversation alive to the complexities and real-world consequences of a pressing subject that has become so central to our politics.
-
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
-
Donald Trump will face major geopolitical challenges when he takes office.
In this Conversation, Eric Edelman, former ambassador to Turkey and Finland and Under Secretary of Defense, shares his perspective. As he explains, Trump will face major decisions on all areas of the geopolitical landscape early in his term. Edelman argues that Israelâs military successes have weakened Iranâs âaxis of resistanceâ and opened up new opportunitiesâbut also raise the threat of Iranian nuclear breakout. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine rages, the situation in Europe remains uncertain, and Chinaâs military buildup increases. To meet the threats around the globe, we need to build up the military and defense industrial base, embrace American leadership, and strengthen our alliances. Will the Trump Administration do so? -
How well might the political and legal norms of constitutional government fare in the second Trump administration?
To discuss, we are joined by Jack Goldsmith, distinguished law professor at Harvard and former Assistant Attorney General in the Office of Legal Counsel. As Goldsmith explains, Trump has expressed ambitions to exercise unprecedented control over the federal government, with plans to change the Civil Service and administrative agencies, and wield the pardon power aggressively, among other methods. While emphasizing the broad powers the president has to shape policy and personnel, Goldsmith discusses the future of checks and balances that protect the rule of law. To preserve the guardrails of government, Goldsmith emphasizes the role and responsibility of Congress, political appointees, and bureaucrats maintaining fidelity to constitutional duties.
-
What should we expect in Donald Trumpâs second term?
To discuss, we are joined by John Bolton, who served as National Security Advisor in the Trump White House from 2018 to 2019 and with distinction in many prior Republican administrations. Drawing on insights from working closely with Trump in his first term, Bolton shares his perspective on what the second term might look like. Bolton argues Trump selected his cabinet nominees for âfealtyâ rather than competenceâand he discusses the politicization and chaos in government agencies that could result. Bolton also considers the role of the Senate as a potential check on the president, and reflects more broadly on Trumpâs approach to the presidency. -
What do the results of the 2024 elections tell us about the state of American politics? Where might we be in 2026 and 2028?
To discuss, we are joined again by Ron Brownstein, a senior editor at The Atlantic and a senior political analyst at CNN. According to Brownstein, the presidential election was a ânational verdict of voters [who] were dissatisfied with what they got over the past four years. And whatever doubts they had about the alternative seemed to them less risky than continuing on the course that we are on.â As Brownstein explains, the data show many of Trumpâs own voters had serious concerns about Trump and his policies. To this end, he argues that elections in 2026 and 2028 likely will turn on whether Trump pursues extreme and unpopular policies that cater to his base or governs in a way that appeals to the broader electorate.
-
Where does the race stand two weeks before Election Day?
To discuss, we are joined by Ronald Brownstein, a senior editor at The Atlantic and a senior political analyst at CNN. According to Brownstein, the election is âclosely balanced on the knifeâs edgeâ and very subtle shifts among coalitions in the swing states easily could change the outcome. Brownstein shares his perspective on possible paths to victory for each candidate based on the current data, and what we ought to look for on the campaign trail and in the polling during the last days of the campaign.Following the election, Brownstein will rejoin us for a special Conversation to analyze and reflect on what the 2024 returns reveal about the electorateâand what we can learn from these trends about how our politics might play out in the years ahead.
-
How would the economy do under a Trump or Harris administration?
To discuss, we are joined again by the distinguished Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obamaâs second term. Furman shares his perspective on a wide variety of subjects including tariffs, trade policy with allies and adversaries, the dangers of a politicized Fed, inflation, and immigration. Forecasting economic policies under the two potential administrations, Furman contends that Kamala Harris would track Bidenâs policies to some degree, but âher instincts are just a little bit more towards wanting to pal around with CEOs than labor leaders relative to Joe Biden.â As for Trump, Furman argues that âthereâs one Trump, with responsible advisors, who doesnât do anything he says on the campaign and things turn out basically fine. Thereâs another Trump who does follow through, and that could be a downside for growth and a large downside in terms of higher inflation.â -
We face an ever more dangerous geopolitical environment. In this Conversation, Princeton professor and AEI nonresident senior fellow Aaron Friedberg analyzes Americaâs foreign policy challenges and considers how a Harris or Trump administration might approach the threats we face. According to Friedberg, the cooperation among Russia, China, Iran, North Korea âhas grown more and more sophisticated and complexâ in recent times, making the challenges in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia more difficult to addressâas well as more interrelated. Friedberg argues that the volatility in American domestic politics makes predicting the American approach to countering these threats increasingly uncertain. As he puts it, âIf Trump comes back, the range of possible policies in each of these areas is just much wider than would have been typically the case in the pastââand a key question with Harris is "To what extent does she share [Bidenâs] gut instinct regarding American leadership?"
-
How might Tuesdayâs debate shape the race in the weeks ahead? How can Harris capitalize on her performance? Will the debate affect the results in November?
With less than eight weeks to Election Day, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville shares his advice to the Harris campaign and analysis of the race. As he puts it: âPeople still, for better or worse, know Trump. [Harris] had a great debate, a great convention, but still has some more to fill out here.â According to Carville, now Harris might benefit from giving speeches on issues from the economy to foreign policy. The Democratic base, he argues, âwill allow her great leeway in appealing to more unaligned votersâand Trump doesnât have that.â Carville and Kristol also discuss whether another debate will happen, Trumpâs struggles to focus on issues, and possible key moments ahead in an extraordinary campaign. -
Where do things stand in the race after the Democratic convention and before the presidential debate?
When veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik joined us the day after Bidenâs withdrawal from the race he explained why the next month could be decisive in the fight to define Harris. Reflecting on the first five weeks of the campaign, Sosnik argues that she has been successful: âso far Harris is winning the battle about the campaign being about change, and she is the change candidateâmaking the campaign about the future and not about the past.â However, he cautions that the race remains very close. As he puts it: âHarris is still running behind the Biden-Harris numbers in 2020, and measurably behind. So, she does have more ground sheâs going to need to gain.â Sosnik shares his in-depth analysis of what the campaigns might do going forward, why the upcoming debate may be the most consequential in contemporary history, and the current dynamics in battleground states where the race will be decided. -
Where do things stand in the race now that the matchup is set?
According to veteran Democratic strategist James Carville, the replacement of Joe Biden by Kamala Harris has improved prospects for the Democratsâthough ânot as much as some people think.â As he puts it: âItâs like I tell people, if you have an infected wisdom tooth and you go to the dentist and they pull it out, you feel on top of the worldâ[but] God, you really donât feel any better than you would if you never had the infected wisdom tooth.â
In a race that may be won at the margins, as in 2016 and 2020, Carville explains that Harris must define herself and her candidacy successfully where she still isnât well known. According to Carville, she has the opportunity to brand Trump as âpast, yesterday, and staleââbut the Harris-Walz campaign must have a forward-looking message and run on concrete policy proposals. Carville also discusses the selection of Walz, the mood at Mar-a-Lago since Bidenâs withdrawal from the race, how the Trump strategy against Harris might develop, and offers advice about whether to have and how to handle a Harris-Trump debate. -
The withdrawal of Joe Biden from the presidential race three weeks after his disastrous debate performance, followed by the swift decision by Democrats to select Kamala Harris as the presumptive nominee, leaves us in uncharted waters. According to veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, the broad contours of the 2024 election remain: âItâs a narrowly divided country. Itâs a fairly even race. But Trump has the advantage in an Electoral College system that [today] favors Republicans.â Yet this election has been like no other.
In this Conversation, Sosnik shares his analysis and practical advice for the next four weeks and the next four months. Sosnik explains why the next month may prove decisive. Each campaign now is racing to define Harris, and the stakes of the Democratic convention in August are higher than they have been in many decades. In the weeks ahead, Harris faces the daunting challenge of both running on strengths of the Biden-Harris record and presenting a case for the future that is her ownâall as she decides on the most effective case to prosecute against Trump. This will not take place in a vacuum. At the same time, Harris will face an onslaught from the Trump campaign, which has done little advertising during the past weeks and has a war chest to spend on defining her. Sosnik warns that, to win, it is essential for Harris to avoid the peril of presidential candidates like Mitt Romney, John Kerry, and Bob Dole, who have allowed their opponents to define them before their nominations.As Sosnik puts it: âSuccess always begets more success in politics. So the more successful she is at consolidating the party, demonstrating her capacity to be the nominee, the more successful she is on the run-up to the convention, the more likely the convention is to be a success.â To that end, he argues that Harris's decisions over the next weeksâabout her campaign staff, defining her vision, organizing a successful Democratic convention, selecting a strong vice-presidential candidate, etc.âlikely will determine her prospects in November.
-
What should we make of Trumpâs plans for the federal bureaucracy in a second term? In recent days, there has been extensive reporting about âProject 2025,â an agenda and road map that openly aims to politicize the civil service and render it more compliant with the executive. In this Conversation, we are joined by University of Pennsylvania political scientist John DiIulio, one of the leading experts on the civil service and bureaucracy in America. DiIulio takes the Project 2025 proposal seriously. But he argues that attacks on the permanent bureaucracy as a âDeep State" are misleading, because the federal agencies all are accountable and subject to Congressional oversight in meaningful ways. DiIulio considers the threat of a second Trump administration prioritizing loyalty over competency in the bureaucracy, the history of the civil service in the US, and what meaningful reforms of the bureaucracy might look like. DiIulio argues that above all we should focus on reforming the use of federal contractors, which remains the most unaccountable part of American government.
-
What is the state of the economy today and where might it be at the time of the November elections? To discuss, we are joined again by the distinguished Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was deputy director of the National Economic Council during the Financial Crisis and then served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obamaâs second term. As Furman puts it, in spite of the inflation of the past few years and other longer-term challenges, âWe really are right now economically the envy of the world. So I think it makes a lot of sense that we worry about our problems and figure out what we can do to make it even better.â In a wide-ranging analysis, Furman shares his perspective on inflation, employment, debt, and both Biden and Trump economic policies regarding immigration, tariffs, and other questions. While highlighting the strength of the US economy today, Furman notes how public policy choices and domestic and world events could affect us in the long term.
-
Where do things stand in Ukraine? How are European democracies faring? How should we think about the challenge from autocracies around the globe?
To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Anne Applebaum. Applebaum shares her perspective on recent developments in Ukraine, Russia, and Europe including the recent EU elections. She points to Ukraineâs continued resilience in the face of serious challenges, and Europe and Americaâs support for Ukraine in spite of domestic pressures against it. But she notes that we only have begun to think seriously about the challenges from autocracies, and that much more needs to be done to defend democracy at home and abroad. As Applebaum puts it: âCommunist China, nationalist Russia, theocratic Iran, Bolivarian socialist Venezuela, whatever North Korea is⊠these arenât countries that share an ideology... but they do share a common interestâundermining usâand by us, I mean America, Europe, the liberal world, the democratic world.â -
Where do things stand in the race as we head into the summer?
According to veteran Democratic strategist James Carville: âItâs clearly very close. There clearly can be events that can impact the outcome. But weâre headed to an election that not many people are very excited about.â
Carville argues that the Biden campaign needs a message on the economy that is forward-looking, and suggests it isnât enough for the president to frame the election as a referendum on Trump. Carville considers how abortion and unpopularity of the MAGA movement are potentially winning issues that the Biden campaign might use more effectively. But he notes the Trump operation has been more disciplined than in 2016 or in 2020, and reflects on the limitations to date of Bidenâs campaign as incumbent. Kristol and Carville also consider how the outcome of Trumpâs New York trial, a debate in June (if it happens!), the conventions, and other upcoming events could shape the race.
-
Is today's anti-liberalism a new phenomenon in American politics? What might earlier eras in US history have to teach us?
To discuss these questions, we are joined, again, by Robert Kagan, the historian and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Drawing on his new book, Rebellion: How Antiliberalism Is Tearing America ApartâAgain, Kagan argues that we âdonât realize that the [anti-liberal] movement weâre looking at today has been visible in every generation since the founding.â Kagan draws particular attention to the 1920s, when anti-immigration sentiment, white identity politics, and sympathy for authoritarian figures were prevalent in America. Kagan notes that the MAGA movement can be understood as a part of a long history of anti-liberalism that runs counter to the tradition of the founders, yet remains endemic to American democracy. Liberal democracy in America thus needs to be fought for and cannot simply be assumed. -
Where do things stand in Ukraine? How will the recently-passed aid package help Ukraine on the battlefield? How does the war in Ukraine relate to rising threats from adversaries around the globe?
To discuss these questions we are joined again by Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Kagan explains that Ukraine continues to face serious difficulties, in part because of a critical shortage of weapons as a result of the delay in US support. Yet the recently-passed aid package should bolster defenses against Russiaâs anticipated assault this summer, and potentially help Ukraine to make gains in a counteroffensive early next year. Reflecting on the war and the world situation more broadly, Kagan points to the rising alliances among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as a comprehensive threat to the free world. As he puts it: âThese countries disagree about a lot of things. They donât share a common ideology. But they do share a common enemy: us.⊠We have to recognize [it] is an entente that aims to take us down, and we have to be resisting every part of it.â -
What was it like serving in the Trump administrationâand what might a second Trump term look like? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense from 2019-2020. In this Conversation, Esper considers Ukraine, China, and other foreign policy challenges facing the United States, and reflects on his experience leading the Department of Defense during the Trump administration. Esper discusses accomplishments of American foreign policy during those years, but also raises deep concern about Trumpâs attempts to politicize the military and his placing unsuitable personnel at the center of key foreign policy decision-making. And he argues that these tendencies, which were kept partially under wraps in the first term, could prove to be more alarming in a secondâespecially considering Trumpâs increasing priority of selecting personnel based on personal loyalty. In a time of what he calls âgreat power competition with Russia and China,â Esper argues it is vital to have a strong foreign policy team in placeâand dangerous to have a bad one.
- Laat meer zien
