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The Balance of Power in the Russo-Ukraine War / Steve Jermy
https://www.natowatch.org/sites/defau...
Topic: Possible Peace Talks in Istanbul and U.S. Involvement
Trump’s Comments: Former President Donald Trump expressed optimism about potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine scheduled for Thursday in Istanbul. He said he might even attend if he believes it would help progress negotiations.
Location and Participants: While both Russia and Ukraine may send representatives, experts doubt both leaders (Putin and Zelensky) will be present. Zelensky has challenged Putin to attend, but it's seen as unlikely due to the lack of pre-negotiation groundwork.
Contrasting Demands:
Zelensky insists on a 30-day unconditional ceasefire before talks.
Putin has rejected any preconditions, calling for immediate direct talks while military operations continue.
Balance of Power: Analysts argue that Russia holds the military advantage and has no incentive to agree to a ceasefire that would allow Ukraine to regroup. They believe Ukraine and its Western backers lack the leverage to force Russia into concessions.
Media and Diplomatic Spin:
Western figures like former U.S. Ambassador Kurt Volker are accused of misrepresenting Russia's stated grievances.
Critics argue that dismissing Russia’s historical concerns (e.g., NATO expansion) contributes to the diplomatic impasse.
Putin’s Approach: Seen as strategic and measured, emphasizing diplomacy without halting military action. He’s portrayed as playing a multi-board geopolitical “chess game” effectively.
Western Strategy Questioned: Commentators suggest that Western leaders may be promoting unrealistic expectations, focusing more on messaging than power realities.
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U.S. Military Aid to Israel: The U.S. has lost 22 $30 million drones, 7 since mid-March, along with spending on interceptor missiles and other weapons. This high cost is making Trump reconsider continued support for Israel, especially as Netanyahu signals a prolonged military campaign in Gaza that would heavily rely on U.S. backing.
Trump’s Shift in Focus: Trump is reportedly growing disinterested in supporting Israel due to the financial burden and the allure of massive investments from the Gulf states—primarily Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.
Gulf Investment in the U.S.:
Saudi Arabia: Pledged $600 billion in U.S. investments.
Qatar: Expected to announce $200–$300 billion.
UAE: Promising $1.4 trillion over the next 10 years.
Trump is being courted with personal luxuries, such as a "Palace in the Sky" jet, which may influence his policy decisions.
Potential Policy Shift:
Some commentators suggest Trump might moderate his support for Israel if it benefits him politically or financially.
This shift could also align with Saudi Arabia’s push for Palestinian statehood as a prerequisite for normalizing relations with Israel.
Saudi Position on Gaza: Saudi officials have publicly condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza as violations of international law, calling for an end to occupation and annexation.
Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza:
Severe famine conditions: nearly half a million Gazans face "catastrophic hunger."
The Israeli blockade has prevented aid, food, and medicine from entering for over two months.
The suffering is not due to natural causes but a direct result of policy—seen by critics as collective punishment.
The media, particularly in the U.S., is criticized for underreporting the humanitarian toll and context, especially Yemen’s Ansar Allah’s actions in solidarity with Palestinians.
Growing Western Awareness:
Some UK politicians are reconsidering their support for Israel.
Images and reports of children suffering are making it harder for the public to accept the justification that it's purely a fight against Hamas.
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Following the May 9th Victory Day parade in Moscow, Russia resumed full-scale military operations in Ukraine, including overnight drone strikes. Despite a brief pause around the parade, hostilities quickly resumed. Ukraine had attempted to disrupt the parade with hundreds of drones and missiles, which Russia largely intercepted.
Colonel Douglas Macgregor criticized the West’s continued surprise at Russian aggression, arguing that Russia has consistently stated it would not stop fighting until its objectives are met. He also condemned what he sees as strategic confusion and inconsistency from former President Trump, who reportedly aligned with European leaders in calling for a 30-day ceasefire. Macgregor views this as a betrayal of Trump’s earlier position acknowledging Russia's grievances and territorial claims.
He expressed concern that Trump’s current stance undermines any potential credibility with Russia and aligns him with globalist leaders in Europe who Macgregor blames for weakening national identities. He believes the West is prolonging the war by continuing to arm Ukraine and asserts that Ukraine’s government is selling off the country’s assets while being propped up by Western powers.
Despite talk of peace talks in Turkey, Macgregor remains skeptical, arguing that unless Ukraine accepts neutrality and recognizes Russia's territorial gains, negotiations are unlikely to succeed. He concludes that Russia is perceived globally as defending its interests, while Ukraine has been exploited by Western powers.
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The video analyzes recent diplomatic developments around the Russia-Ukraine war, particularly a proposed meeting in Istanbul on Thursday between Russian and Ukrainian leaders. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded a 30-day unconditional ceasefire from Russian President Vladimir Putin, which was largely dismissed. Instead, Russia proposed direct talks in Istanbul, bypassing the ceasefire demand.
The speaker argues that Putin feels confident due to Russia's superior military and strategic position and is unwilling to accept ceasefire terms from a weaker Ukraine. Zelensky's demand is described as unrealistic and potentially provocative. Former U.S. President Donald Trump initially supported the ceasefire but then appeared to support Russia’s proposal for negotiations.
Zelensky later agreed to attend the meeting but reiterated his ceasefire demand, while also making statements that seemed confrontational. The speaker claims this mirrors Zelensky’s past behavior, such as reportedly rejecting an early peace deal in 2022 that could have ended the war — a decision allegedly made by Zelensky himself, not solely under Western pressure.
Ultimately, the video casts doubt on the likelihood of a genuine diplomatic breakthrough, suggesting that Zelensky continues to miss opportunities for peace, potentially prolonging the conflict and its human cost.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the head of four European countries issue a shocking ultimatum to Russia today. If Putin does not accept the demand of an unconditional 30 day ceasefire by Monday, the Western countries will impose significant new sanctions on Russia. Why this is exactly supposed to make Russia frightened, 'forcing peace' on them, as Zelensky claims, is unclear.
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The speaker passionately argues against war with Iran, asserting that such a path is immoral, unethical, and un-American. Drawing on over 20 years of military service, he explains that the U.S. military exists to defend the nation, not to coerce or dominate other countries. He criticizes political figures, particularly Republican senators like Tom Cotton, for pushing narratives that may serve foreign interests over American ones and for using fear-mongering to justify military action.
He acknowledges real threats in the world but believes that some use pro-American rhetoric to justify unjust wars rooted in power and control, rather than true national defense. He supports America-first policies in terms of protecting national interests, but stresses the importance of alliances, diplomacy, and avoiding permanent enemies or entangling commitments. He argues that demands for Iran to surrender its defensive capabilities without compromise make war inevitable and undermine diplomatic progress, like the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), which he views as a better alternative than current tensions.
Ultimately, he warns that the push for war not only harms America’s global reputation and moral standing but also violates both the U.S. Constitution and the War Powers Act, which require congressional approval for acts of war.
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On May 9, 2025, Russia marked the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, referred to domestically as the Great Patriotic War, with a large parade in Moscow. The event proceeded without any drone strikes, despite Ukraine having launched over 500 drones in the days prior. It’s believed international pressure, possibly from the U.S. and China, discouraged further attacks to avoid a major international incident. Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the parade, sitting beside Vladimir Putin, alongside leaders from over 20 other countries, including some from Europe.
The U.S. response focused on diplomacy. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce reiterated the U.S. position that a 30-day unconditional ceasefire is necessary before meaningful peace talks can begin—something she called a minimal and obvious first step. However, Russia has consistently rejected this, viewing it as a tactic to rearm Ukraine.
Later, Vice President J.D. Vance appeared to take a more flexible stance, saying that while a ceasefire would be ideal, the U.S. might withdraw from mediation efforts if Russia isn't negotiating in good faith. This apparent contradiction between U.S. officials highlighted inconsistency in U.S. messaging and may undermine diplomatic leverage.
The speaker criticized this mixed messaging, suggesting that Russia, currently holding a military advantage, has no incentive to agree to a ceasefire. He argued the U.S. should take a realistic and proactive stance by ending support and urging Ukraine to pursue the best deal possible now to stop further bloodshed. The Russians, he noted, have not changed their stance: they reject temporary ceasefires, which they see as ploys to rearm Ukraine, and instead demand a comprehensive peace.
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The speakers criticize Western leaders—especially European and U.S. officials—for maintaining unrealistic expectations about achieving a "just and lasting peace" in Ukraine that includes full Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. They argue this vision is impossible because it is fundamentally unacceptable to Russia, which sees NATO expansion and a Western-aligned Ukraine as existential threats due to its historical invasions. The conversation asserts that Russia has non-negotiable security demands and that peace will ultimately be decided on the battlefield. The West, particularly Europe, is accused of clinging to false hopes that U.S. policy—especially under a potential Trump administration—might eventually align with theirs. However, the speakers argue that this is futile, as Russia is likely to win regardless of U.S. involvement. Continued resistance by Ukraine and Europe, instead of encouraging compromise, further incentivizes Russia to secure a military victory that ensures Ukraine can never join NATO or the EU. The discussion ends with skepticism toward the EU's "porcupine strategy" of arming Ukraine to deter Russia, suggesting it may only prolong the conflict rather than lead to peace.
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The video discusses confusion and conflicting narratives surrounding a supposed ceasefire between the U.S. and the Houthis in the Red Sea. President Trump claimed the Houthis “capitulated,” said they wouldn’t attack ships anymore, and that the U.S. would halt bombings in response—not as part of a formal deal but based on their word. However, the Houthis deny surrendering and assert that if the U.S. stops attacking them, they’ll refrain from attacking U.S. ships—but will continue targeting vessels headed to Israel. This contradiction raises doubts about whether a ceasefire truly exists. The U.S. State Department echoed the idea that the Houthis made a verbal commitment, but emphasized they would be judged by their actions, not just words.
The video highlights that Israeli officials were unaware of any agreement and are dissatisfied. It also details the disproportionate U.S. military costs in the region—estimated at $3 billion and including the loss of several F-18 jets. The speaker questions the sustainability and strategic value of the U.S. mission, expressing skepticism that the Houthis will cease attacks given their resilience and past behavior.
Lastly, Senator Lindsey Graham's comments are criticized for pushing confrontation with Iran, suggesting the Houthi threat is ultimately driven by Iranian support. The speaker warns that calls for war with Iran are naive and dangerous, lacking foresight about the broader consequences.
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A recent escalation between India and Pakistan has raised fears of a potential nuclear conflict. According to reports, India has launched airstrikes targeting civilian areas in Pakistan, including a mosque and residential zones, resulting in casualties among women and children. This follows a terrorist attack on Indian civilians—allegedly by Islamist militants in Kashmir—prompting India's military response.
This cycle of violence is not new. It mirrors a similar escalation in 2019, which began after a suicide bombing killed 40 Indian soldiers. At the time, India responded with airstrikes, and both countries faced off militarily. While global powers, including the U.S., urged restraint then and now, the conflict remains unresolved and deeply rooted in decades-long tensions, dating back to British India's 1947 partition and the disputed status of Kashmir.
The Kashmir region is currently divided among India (55%), Pakistan (35%), and China (10%), with about 20 million people living there. Despite periods of uneasy peace, events like this keep the conflict on a "low boil", with each side accusing the other and misinformation complicating public understanding, especially for Western audiences.
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The speaker strongly criticizes Ukrainian attacks and claims they reinforce Russia’s belief that Ukraine’s government cannot be negotiated with and must be defeated militarily. A viewer’s suggestion that Ukraine might be probing Russian air defenses ahead of a May 9 strike is dismissed as unlikely, since Russia is not passive in its defense strategy.
The speaker also discusses diplomatic warnings issued by Russia and China to Western powers, suggesting global concern over potential escalation. Despite threats, many world leaders still plan to attend Russia’s May 9 parade, signaling confidence or indifference to Ukrainian threats. Putin is portrayed as calculated and rational, taking a "manageable risk" with the parade.
Claims by Ukraine that Russia may conduct a false flag attack are rejected as baseless, with the argument that Russia already has justification to act militarily and does not need to manufacture an excuse.
The discussion criticizes Western military officials—especially General Ben Hodges—for endorsing attacks on the Russian parade, labeling such views as reckless and morally wrong. The May 9 parade is defended as a solemn commemoration of WWII sacrifices, not a military provocation. The speaker emphasizes that unlike the U.S., Russia paid a much higher human cost in WWII and continues to remember that history deeply.
Finally, there's criticism of American foreign policy and military leadership, highlighting perceived ignorance of history, especially regarding NATO expansion and its impact on Russia.
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The speaker discusses the upcoming May 9th Victory Day parade in Moscow, commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Allied victory in World War II. This event is especially significant to Russia and is being celebrated with much buildup. However, concerns are raised about security risks, given the ongoing war with Ukraine and past drone attacks on Moscow.
The speaker criticizes Ukrainian President Zelensky’s recent comments, where he hinted that Russia should be worried about potential attacks on that day. He suggests that while Zelensky may be detached from reality, such a move would provoke severe retaliation from Russia.
A key part of the discussion centers on retired U.S. General Ben Hodges, who publicly stated that the parade is a legitimate military target because it involves troops and captured Ukrainian equipment. The speaker finds Hodges' comments irresponsible and dangerous, arguing that encouraging such an attack could lead to massive Russian retaliation—potentially even targeting Kyiv in ways Russia has so far avoided.
He notes that while Ukraine and Russia are at war and strikes happen on both sides, there is a difference between what one can do versus what one should do, especially if the outcome worsens Ukraine’s strategic position. The parade, unlike a weapons factory, also involves civilian elements, making it a far more sensitive target.
The speaker strongly opposes the idea of striking the parade, warning that it could remove the restraint Russia has shown so far (e.g., not targeting Ukraine’s leadership or major government buildings) and lead to a dramatic escalation of the conflict.
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Vladimir Putin began promoting the “Invisible Regiment” movement about 15–20 years ago, encouraging civilians to honor relatives who died in World War II during military parades. This reinforces a deep Russian cultural connection to sacrifice, history, and patriotism, which extends beyond just the Russian Federation to Belarusians and ethnic Russians in former Soviet states.
Russians have strong emotional ties to their homeland, and this attachment creates solidarity, particularly because of shared struggles under communism. During the Cold War, many Soviet émigrés returned home because they felt alienated in the West.
The breakup of the Soviet Union left many ethnic Russians in newly independent states (like Ukraine, Estonia, Georgia) where they were often marginalized. Examples include laws limiting rights for Russians, like Estonia barring them from local elections and Ukraine’s law designating Russians as non-indigenous people, reducing their rights. These exclusions help explain why Russia views conflicts in these regions as existential—not just for the country, but for the Russian nation, including those outside current Russian borders.
The West often misunderstands this nuance, assuming that pressure or sanctions will cause Russia to yield. But sanctions affect ordinary Russians and deepen the sense of national pride and grievance. Unlike during the Cold War, when the West opposed a system (communism), today's actions are perceived as attacks on people themselves.
Finally, the war in Ukraine is taking on the emotional intensity of a civil war, where hatred builds deeply over time. This is different from earlier wars like WWI, where enemies could still show human empathy. In Ukraine, that empathy is mostly gone, and the war has become deeply personal for many involved.
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Negotiated Peace May No Longer Be Possible: The chance for a negotiated settlement in the Ukraine conflict—acceptable to both sides—may have passed. Some believe it was never truly viable.
Trump's Position Shifted: Trump initially tried to distance himself from the war, blaming President Biden and suggesting it wouldn't have happened under his watch. He once appeared poised to pull out of the conflict entirely, but recent actions suggest a change in direction.
Trump Now "Owns" the War: Commentators argue that due to recent developments and support packages, Trump now has ownership of the Ukraine war in the public perception, despite his earlier efforts to avoid it.
Pastor’s Influence and Emotional Decision-Making: A pastor close to Trump visited Ukraine, witnessed reported atrocities, and apparently influenced Trump emotionally, shifting his stance on continued involvement.
US Aid Undermines Diplomacy: New U.S. aid packages (F-16 training, Patriot missiles, etc.) have further angered Russia and undermined any remaining hopes of a diplomatic solution. These actions suggest escalation rather than de-escalation.
Criticism of Trump’s Advisors and Strategy: Trump is criticized for being too reactive, influenced by emotional appeals and the last person he speaks with, rather than adhering to a clear strategic vision.
Russian Perspective: Putin has long believed the West, especially the U.S., cannot be trusted, and recent actions reinforce that belief. Russia is pivoting toward self-reliance and alliances with Asia and the Global South.
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The speaker criticizes Western military and political leadership for lacking strategic thinking in dealing with the Ukraine conflict, particularly in relation to missile defense and long-term objectives. He argues that:
Missile defense systems are costly and unsustainable: The West may need to use more interceptor missiles than there are incoming ones to ensure defense, which raises logistical and financial concerns. Leadership fails to define clear objectives for such operations.
Russia has strategic clarity and industrial capacity: Unlike the West, Russia has a defined objective, a strong defense industrial base, and the ability to repair and rotate damaged vehicles, allowing for sustained warfare. In contrast, Ukraine has limited repair and supply capacity, and Western military aid is drying up.
Western leaders, including Trump, are indecisive: Trump hasn't taken unilateral action to influence the war's direction and risks being perceived as weak. Time is running out for him to change course, especially with Russia's symbolic May 9th Victory Day approaching.
Imbalance in production capacity: Russia is expected to produce far more tanks, vehicles, missiles, and artillery shells than the U.S. and Europe combined in 2025, putting Ukraine at a severe disadvantage.
Political consequences loom: If Trump fails to act decisively, he may lose control over the narrative, face backlash from both political parties, and be seen as incapable of fulfilling his promises to end the war.
A broader warning: The West risks provoking Russia into broader retaliation, potentially dragging NATO members further into the conflict if missile interceptions or direct attacks on Russian forces escalate.
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The speaker discusses growing divisions within Europe over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the West's relationship with Russia. While hardliner governments in Western and Northern Europe (like France, Germany, and the Baltics) remain committed to confrontation, other European nations—particularly in Central and Southern Europe (like Hungary, Croatia, Italy, and increasingly Germany)—are starting to push for a diplomatic resolution and restoration of relations with Russia. Economic concerns, especially the loss of cheap Russian energy, are a driving factor behind this shift.
The speaker suggests that if the U.S., particularly under Trump, decides to disengage from the conflict, it will expose and accelerate this split within Europe. Without U.S. support, many European countries may abandon the current strategy and pursue direct negotiations with Russia.
Regarding U.S. personnel changes, the dismissal of National Security Adviser Mike Waltz is seen as a sign that he was misaligned with Trump’s preference for diplomacy over confrontation. While being reassigned as U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Waltz’s suitability for that role is also questioned, given the diplomatic finesse it requires.
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There has been breaking news out of Washington, D.C.—National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and his deputy Alex Wong have been fired. The firing appears sudden and surprising, especially since Waltz recently appeared on Fox News acting as if it were a normal day. While the White House has not yet made an official statement, reports suggest it's being framed as part of a staff shake-up rather than a direct response to controversy.
A key reason for their dismissal appears to be the so-called "SignalGate" scandal. Waltz had created a Signal group chat that included senior officials (e.g., VP, Secretary of Defense, Tulsi Gabbard), where classified military operations were allegedly discussed. Signal, although encrypted, is not authorized for handling classified information. This misuse raised major security concerns and may have led to his removal.
There was also internal conflict. Waltz reportedly pushed for harsher sanctions on Russia, which clashed with Trump's more restrained stance. Additionally, political activist Laura Loomer, a vocal supporter of Israel and Trump, had long pushed for the removal of both Waltz and Wong, accusing them of being insufficiently loyal. Loomer is now claiming credit for the firings.
These firings suggest deeper tensions within the Trump team, both over security protocol violations and ideological loyalty.
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The discussion centers on the complex state of U.S. and European involvement in efforts to end the war in Ukraine, with particular focus on the Trump administration's peace proposal and shifting dynamics among key figures. Despite efforts to broker peace, including a ceasefire plan and negotiations with Ukraine and European partners, the gap between Russian and Ukrainian positions remains vast.
Key developments include:
Conflicting signals from U.S. leadership: Marco Rubio suggested the U.S. might walk away from talks, while General Keith Kellogg expressed optimism, citing a proposed 30-day comprehensive ceasefire.
The Trump administration's seven-point plan includes keeping Crimea and occupied Donbas regions effectively Russian, keeping Ukraine out of NATO, and halting U.S. support—measures seen as heavily favoring Moscow.
Russia’s demands, per Foreign Minister Lavrov, include formal recognition of annexed territories, demilitarization of Ukraine, lifting sanctions, and ending arrest warrants—all of which are unacceptable to Ukraine and the West.
Both sides of the conflict have hardliners pushing to prolong the war: Ukrainian right-wing factions and Russian separatists, making peace talks difficult.
European divisions are highlighted, with fears that some in Europe prefer the war to continue until a more favorable U.S. administration returns.
Germany is criticized for stationing troops in Lithuania, which the speaker calls illegal and provocative, potentially escalating tensions further with Russia.
Finally, the overarching narrative is that peace is elusive, and any agreement will be extremely difficult and time-consuming, possibly more so than the Vietnam War peace process.
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Trump's Cabinet and Ukraine War: Former President Trump is meeting with his cabinet to assess the direction of the Russia-Ukraine war and is frustrated by slow diplomatic progress. He feels things aren’t going the way he envisioned, despite some positive momentum compared to previous administrations.
Ukraine Minerals Deal Delays: A key issue is a delayed Ukraine minerals deal, initially meant to be signed in February. Although the agreement was reportedly finalized, Ukraine introduced last-minute changes, causing confusion. Critics argue the deal is being drawn out unnecessarily, and the economic viability of Ukrainian rare earth minerals is questionable due to a lack of processing infrastructure.
Russian Military Advances: Russia is making significant advances in eastern Ukraine, particularly in regions like Kharkiv and Sumy, with potential for future referendums to join Russia. Analysts predict more territory could fall under Russian control by summer.
Trump’s Role and Expectations: Trump is described as having unrealistic expectations for a peace deal and downplays his own administration's role in escalating tensions. From 2017 to 2021, Ukraine's military significantly expanded under his presidency, and U.S.-led NATO exercises increased.
Russia's Firm Stance: Russia, through Foreign Minister Lavrov, remains firm: any ceasefire requires full Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied regions, international recognition of annexed territories, demilitarization of Ukraine, and lifting of Western sanctions. These terms have remained consistent since the start of the war.
Outlook: Analysts believe Trump either misjudges Russia’s resolve or is setting up to withdraw from negotiations. Russia’s conditions are hardening with time, and without Western agreement, further territorial losses for Ukraine are likely.
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Western vs. Russian Experience: Ukraine, after three years of combat, has more real-world air defense experience than Western forces. There is concern about potential losses if the West intervenes militarily, such as in Iran.
Ukraine’s Strategy and Leadership: Ukrainian President Zelensky is criticized for resisting negotiated settlements and for making potentially provocative comments, especially around Russian events like the May 9 parade. The idea that Ukraine might attack such events is seen as strategically reckless.
Sanctions on Russia: Sanctions are viewed as counterproductive, harming Europe more than Russia. The Russian economy is growing as domestic businesses replace Western ones, while European economies struggle.
Russia's Military Strategy: Contrary to Western claims that Russia isn’t progressing, the speaker argues Russia is successfully pursuing its goals—demilitarization and denazification—through attrition, not fast territorial gains. Russia is believed to be advancing slowly but effectively.
Western Perceptions: Figures like Gen. Kellogg and Fareed Zakaria are accused of misunderstanding or misrepresenting the war. The claim that Russia is not winning is seen as disconnected from the battlefield realities.
Ukraine’s Position: Zelensky’s insistence on unattainable conditions for peace is seen as delusional. The West lacks the military and political will to enforce those conditions.
Negotiation Realities: It’s suggested that Russia, having the upper hand, will set the terms of any future peace. A 30-day unconditional ceasefire demanded by Ukraine is rejected by Russia, as shown in a recent statement from Sergey Lavrov.
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