Afleveringen
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Historians differ over the need to explore âcounterfactualsââthe study of scenarios that never happenedâand what they can tell us about historical causation. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institutionâs Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and noted historian of Russia, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss alternative historical outcomes: Stalin not surviving a two-front invasion in World War II and Churchill dying well beforehand; the American Revolution failing; the Beatles never spearheading pop musicâs British Invasion; a Trump victory in 2020 and its potential effect on the current state of affairs in Ukraine and the Middle East; plus a world in which COVID never happened (spoiler alert: it might have impacted John and Niallâs book sales).
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Did Israelâs failure to anticipate Hamasâs surprise attack in October 2023 stem from an overreliance on technical rather than human intelligence gathering? And is TikTok really a national security threat to America? Amy Zegart, the Hoover Institutionâs Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow and author of Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss Israelâs intel failure, whether TikTok is the menace itâs portrayed to be, plus how spy films (wrongly) shape the publicâs view on espionage. Next the fellows discuss the driving forces behind campus unrest across the US and how long the movement will last, followed by a series of other discussions: rebutting anti-American sentiment; the best fast-food burger; the popularity of âAustrian schoolâ economics in South America; and the likely winner were Niall, John, and H.R. to slug it out in a UFC octagon (spoiler alert: Niall and John donât like their chances).
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Nearly 40 years since the nation last saw comprehensive reform on the matter, the consensus is that Americaâs immigration system is sorely in need of updating to 21st-century realities. Reihan Salam, Manhattan Institute president and author of the book Melting Pot or Civil War?, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss a smarter approach to welcoming newcomers to America. After that: the fellows discuss the ramifications of Iranâs not-so-surprise missile assault on Israel and what the coming months portend for those warring nations. Finally, John and H.R. (and a few surprise guests) welcome Niall to his âswinging 60sââHooverâs âinternational man of historyâ officially a sexagenarian on the same day this show was recorded.
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As the six-month anniversary of Hamasâs attack on Israel approaches, what to expect next in that struggleâand is the American president and Israeli prime ministerâs working relationship beyond repair? New York Times columnist Bret Stephens joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss the warâs possible expansion into southern Lebanon and Stephensâs vision of a rebuilt Gaza as a Mediterranean version of Dubai. After that, a celebration of four years since GoodFellowsâ âshelter-in placeâ debut, including a little boasting (they saw inflation coming), a little contrition (they didnât see Trump rebounding), and some big takeaways on geopolitics, economics, and the pandemicâs legacy.
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Facing hot wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and a prolonged cold war in East Asia, how does America adapt its military strategy and resourcesâand in which direction? Elbridge Colby, former Defense Department assistant secretary and cofounder of the Marathon Initiative, which studies great-power competition, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and H.R. McMaster to discuss his contention that rearming Americaâs military in anticipation of an eventual Chinese move on Taiwan takes priority over conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. Following that: the fellows weigh in on the merits of a forced sale of TikTok by its Chinese owners, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumerâs calling for an early election in Israel, plus how to find oneâs soulmate offline (plot spoiler: try attending an intellectual âslap upâ dinner, or getting concussed in a rugby match).
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Following Super Tuesdayâs results, with the US presidential election still the better part of eight months away, a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is all but certain. Victor Davis Hanson, the Hoover Institutionâs Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow and author of the soon-to-be-released book The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation, joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss where Biden and Trump stand on âshrinkflationâ and the US economy, Americaâs involvement in overseas conflicts, plus the likelihood of Democrats replacing a struggling Biden at their August national convention and Trump running a disciplined campaign despite his legal travails.
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Why did Vladimir Putin call for an âinter-Palestinian meetingâ in Moscow? And has Israel drawn a red line regarding a hostage release and an assault on the Gazan city of Rafah? Dan Senor, host of the Call Me Back podcast and author of two books on Israel, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson (live from Jerusalem) and John Cochrane to discuss the moving parts and global ramifications of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Following that: remembering the late Alexei Navalny and what the future holds for Russian political opposition amid Putin-brand fascism; Americaâs âtrustâ credit rating as it reneges on promises to friends and allies; plus George Washingtonâs recent demotion to third-greatest of all US presidents.
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While the American reprisal against Iranian proxies across the Middle East is impressive in its harnessing of firepower, technology, and intelligence, does it advance the goals of deterrence and de-escalation? Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster discuss the pros and cons of the current US strategy and their concerns over the lack of an apparent end game. Following that: a conversation about Donald Trumpâs appeal to voters and his detractorsâ inability to understand his populist resonance (the subject of a recent John Cochrane Wall Street Journal op-ed); how best to revitalize African nations; plus Niallâs annual abhorrence of Super Bowl Sunday (spoiler alert: heâs not a âSwiftieâ).
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This installment of GoodFellows is devoted to audience questionsâviewers and listeners putting Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster through their intellectual paces. Among the topics broached: a possible re-embrace of Western heritage; the same preâWorld War I mentality that dismissed the likelihood of a global conflict potentially enabling a third world war; India and Pakistanâs economic and geostrategic outlooks; Donald Trumpâs second-term objectives, should he be reelected; and Argentinian president Javier Mileiâs pro-market âshock therapyâ and his World Economic Forum âspecial addressâ dressing down Davos attendees. Viewers also asked: Why not a fellowsâ blues band? Might Niall consider adding a little profanity to his profundity?
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The new year begins with a continuation of three topics that figured prominently in 2023: escalating hostilities in the Middle East; a possible return to more traditional higher education after shake-ups at several elite American universities; plus the uncertainty of certain economic assumptions (in 2023, a much-prophesied recession that never materialized). Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane also discuss the odds of Cold War 2 morphing into World War III; whether economic conditions will overshadow fearmongering in a grim Trump-Biden referendum (in Niallâs words: the choice of âempire or republicâ); the best use of this leap yearâs spare day; plus why King Charles III would choose to break with tradition by spending a âdryâ January in a very wet Scotland.
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Failing to unequivocally denounce studentsâ calls for Jewish genocide has cost one university president her job and raises questions as to whether the current levels of anti-Semitic vitriol and political activism inside Americaâs elite schools suggests parallels to Nazi Germany. Bari Weiss, founder of the Free Press and host of the Honestly podcast, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane to discuss when and why Americaâs universities went astray and how to separate scholarship from political agendas.
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As the US prepares for a presidential vote (Iowans caucusing in fewer than 50 days) and a temporary truce halts the Israel-Hamas conflict, long-term uncertainty seems the order of the day. Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal political columnist and the âarchitectâ behind George W. Bushâs presidential runs, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson. H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane to discuss the odds of a Biden-Trump rematch. Next the three fellows analyze the latest in the Middle East, including the peril of a broader regional conflict and the potential for eradicating Hamas. Finally, a âlightning roundâ explores Vladimir Putinâs peace overtures, Sam Altmanâs return to OpenAI, an ascendant Right on two continents, plus the legacy of the soon-to-be-touring Rolling Stones (Niall having no sympathy for any devil who doesnât recognize the Stones as the greatest rock band).
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Two conflicts present two challenges: a Ukrainian counteroffensive turned stalemate; and Israelâs survival as it confronts Hamas (and possibly Hezbollah and Iran). Russ Roberts, Hooverâs John and Jean De Nault Research Fellow and president of Jerusalemâs Shalem College, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson. H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane to discuss Israelâs morale and strategic choices amid a month-long wartime crisis. Then Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of US Army Europe, makes the case for anticipating a positive outcomeâUkraine expelling Russian forces, winning back its landâin a war nearing its 21-month mark.
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Ian Rowe, an American Enterprise Institute senior fellow and cofounder of the Bronx-based Vertex Partnership Academies, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss the future of public education and charter schoolsâ role in the quest for better outcomes.
What lessons does a virtues-based public charter high school in New York City offer to the ideal of education as a path to life success? Ian Rowe, an American Enterprise Institute senior fellow and cofounder of the Bronx-based Vertex Partnership Academies, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss the future of public education and charter schoolsâ role in the quest for better outcomes. After that: Niall and John weigh in on the potential for economic turmoil in a time of global instability; a hypothetical outsider as House Speaker; plus their like and dislike of the Olympic Games.
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As Israel and Ukraine struggle for survival, a newer âaxis of ill willââformed by Russia, China and Iranâsows discord around the globe. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institutionâs Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and a vaunted historian, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to assess options abroad and parallels to the past (are we reliving the 1930s, the 1970s, or both?). The trio then dons their speechwritersâ hats to suggest how President Biden can capture the moral high ground. The trio then discusses how President Biden can capture the moral high ground when he makes public statements about the crisis and Americaâs response to it.
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Recorded live at the Hoover Institutionâs fall retreat: Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane discuss unfolding events in the Middle EastâIsraelâs response, failures in intelligence gathering, plus Americaâs strategic choices vis-Ă -vis a complicit Iran. The trio then reflects on what an anti-Israeli backlash on the campuses of Americaâs elite universitiesâstudents and faculty denouncing the initial victims as aggressors, university leaders offering only lackluster âword saladsââsays about the current state of higher education in the United States.
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The US Supreme Court seems headed for a showdown with social media platforms over content and censorship; the United Nationsâ 78th General Assembly underscores that bodyâs inability to curb totalitarian aggression. Eugene Volokh, a soon-to-be Hoover Institution senior fellow and a First Amendment law professor at UCLA, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss free speech in the Information Age and what comes next for universities following the courtâs rebuke of race-factored admissions. This is followed by Niall and John discussing whether 20th-century international agencies remain true to their charters. On a lighter note, John and Niall also weigh in on government-run groceries, dress codes, and tipping servers (waiters yes, baristas no).
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In a special âmailbagâ episode, Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster answer viewersâ questions, ranging from global geopolitics to American domestic affairs. Among the topics: Is China headed for an economic or military tipping point? What do the commentariat make of doomsaying Cassandras? And would two of the GoodFellows follow their colleague to the White House?
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Former president Donald Trump faces at least four criminal trials that could overshadow the Republicansâ presidential nominating processâand maybe fatally wound him in a general electionâwhile a legal cloud hangs over President Biden due to an ongoing investigation into his sonâs business affairs. Andrew McCarthy, a National Review contributing editor and former federal prosecutor, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss how âlawfareâ became a weaponized part of American politics and the corrosive effects itâs having on national elections and institutional trust.
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On the 78th anniversary of the only wartime use of nuclear weapons, is the human race at another moral crossroads, fearing what artificial intelligence (AI) breakthroughs might unleash? Fei-Fei Li, co-director of Stanford Universityâs Institute for Human-Centered AI, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss AIâs promise and peril, followed by the three âGoodFellowsâ revisiting Harry Trumanâs decision to drop the bombs in 1945. Just as crucial to mankindâs future: they debate the likely winner in an as-yet-unscheduled MMA bout pitting Facebookâs Mark Zuckerberg against Xâs Elon Musk.
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