Afleveringen
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Mike has been following the Syrian question for decades and he explains why Israel has a great opportunity now, if it acts with a cool head, but may also fall into a dangerous trap if it does not.
Plus: we had some hearty laughs at the end. -
After a number of off the record talks with high ranking sources in Israel, both Gadi and Mike are under the impression that the talks of larger goals are sincere. In that case we are probably witnessing a lull, no more, until President Trump takes office.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu's domestic enemies are going into overdrive, with two new surprising investigations: one against the chief of Israel's Prison Service, and one against the chief of Israel's Police in Judea and Samaria. The problem seems to be this: they did what Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, told them to. -
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a confrontational statement accusing his intelligence services of deliberately withholding information from him. It seems clear by now that the "leak scandal" is turning into a real internal crisis.
Since Mike was visiting Tel Aviv, we recorded this one on the fly, in Gadi's home. -
This is more than an investigation of a leak. There are reasons why law enforcement and the state attorney are so intent on keeping the suspects in custody, despite the initial refusal of the lower court to extend their detention. Now it turns out that a rope and a suicide note were found in one suspect's cell. Gadi and Mike lay out three possible explanations for what this is really about.
Then there's also the court's refusal to postpone Benjamin Netanyahu's testimony in the cases against him, even though he's slightly busy running a country at war. It seems like the deep state has stepped up its effort to oust Netanyahu, before time runs out on the Biden-Harris administration. -
Prime Minister Netanyahu is hinting that there is something more sinister going on behind an investigation of leaks from his office: yet another politically motivated use of law enforcement. And this time it's not the police, it's Israel's secret security service – Shabak (aka Shin Bet). Though we don't yet have all the information, Gadi thinks he's heard it all before – has Shabak director Ronen Bar taken a page from James Comey's book? Mike, not yet convinced, nevertheless thinks such an interpretation is beginning to make more sense.
We also discussed Trump's new appointments and what they reveal about his administration's future policy vis-à-vis Israel. -
For over a year now Mike and Gadi have been wrestling with one central problem: can Israel go it alone against Iran? That awful dilemma may now be obsolete. Apart from a deep sense of relief, what are we to expect from a Trump presidency?
Meanwhile Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired Yoav Gallant, his minister of defense. Why did Netanyahu choose this timing, and what can the timing reveal about his possible plans for the future conduct of the war?
And finally, does the new investigation of a leaked document pose a threat to the stability of Netanyahu's coalition? -
A report in the Israeli press talks of "advanced" negotiations for a deal to end the war in Lebanon. But Mike and Gadi are skeptical. The way the story is sourced, the journalist who wrote it, and the American blessing written all over it, suggest that around a grain of truth a fair amount to wishful thinking by the usual suspects has grown. Nevertheless, Mike thinks we can't dismiss the possibility. We also discussed Gadi's piece in Mosaic about the false conceptions that blinded Israel to the disaster of October 7.
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Was it wise to limit the strike to military targets, as per the American red lines? Or did Israel just miss a once in a lifetime opportunity to take out Iran's nuclear facilities? Are we going to see further escalation or will it all wind down now in the run-up to the American elections? We found almost nothing to agree on this time, not even Yair Lapid.
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Predictably, the US is once again telling Israel to "take the win," and bring an end to the war in a ceasefire-for-hostages deal. But the very idea is outdated since there is no longer a central Hamas leadership able to deliver a deal. Instead Prime Minister Netanyahu's message is that Israel will deal separately with each local Hamas commander: whoever will deliver our hostages can get his life and a safe passage out of Gaza in return. How this will play out, and what it could mean for other theaters – primarily Lebanon and Iran? Mike and Gadi discuss.
Mike's WSJ piece
The Politico piece we discussed -
Iran is stepping in to fill the gaps in the Hezbollah chain of command with IRGC men. The plan seems to be a tactical withdrawal to the north in order to regroup and sync the various weapon systems into a better organized counter-strike against Israel. Meanwhile UNIFIL, the UN "peacekeeping" force, is shielding Hezbollah from the IDF, as does, in other ways, the Biden Administration. Mike and Gadi discuss.
Also on this episode: why did Gadi go to pray on Yom Kippur for the first time? -
Recent weeks have improved Israel's strategic position vis-à-vis Iran considerably. But the direct confrontation that had just began can have extremely serious consequences, not all of which are easy to predict. Gadi and Mike discuss what Israel and the world could win, what they could lose, and how the Biden-Harris administration could impact the outcome.
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With the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, Gadi and Mike agree, the war turned in Israel's favor. This masterstroke, coming as it did after a long string of impressive military achievements, weakened not only Hezbollah but also Iran, which has failed to respond in any meaningful way. Iran's major move, thus far, has been to threaten the United States. If the Americans would only stop restraining Israel and begin to support its efforts to weaken Iran, this turning point in the war could become a hinge point in history, the beginning of the sharp decline of Iran's Resistance Axis
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We did not expect this. For the first time in this war, Mike explains, Israel achieved escalation dominance, and regained its deterrence. But on the road ahead there are still major obstacles. Tactical, strategic, and political. The largest of them is the Biden administration.
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This was the world's first mass targeted assassination, where Hezbollah was made to self-select the targets. It also neutralized one of Hezbollah's cruelest strategies: embedding its military among civilians. Mike and Gadi discuss the operation and what may or may not come next.
Also on this episode: Netanyahu's decision to oust minister of security Yoav Gallant has not been reversed. If Gideon Saar is to replace Gallant, it's time to introduce you to the unbelievable story that is this man's political career. -
Israel was gripped last week by two scandals: one erupted over the Hamas strategy document, leaked to the German newspaper, the Bild. What was in the document was no less sensational than the fact that the IDF seems to have concealed its existence from the Prime Minister.
The second scandal had to do with leaked phone calls of former Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit, the man who indicted Netanyahu. The leaked calls brought back suspicions about the politization of law enforcement. -
The woke classification of victimhood and oppression has put Jews on the wrong side of the divide, and so put many of them on the defensive. Not Brooke Goldstein, founder and executive director of the Lawfare Project. The project was created in order to fight against Jew hatred in courts, based on a solid civil rights agenda. It is a fight many more should be taking part in. Gadi spoke with Brooke about Qatari money that flows into American universities, campus antisemitism, and the growing risk to Jews of physical violence. Yes, there are things to do in order to fight back.
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When the news broke out in Israel, about the execution of six hostages, it seemed like the public was split in half over Netanyahu's policy to retain the Philadelphi Corridor. That picture, Mike and Gadi argue, is distorted in more than one way: there was no deal to accept or reject; the Philadelphi Corridor is not the main point of contention; Israel is not equally split between the two position; the Gallant, Gantz and Eisenkot game plan is more complicated than it seems; and the Never-Bibi crowd just suffered a strategic defeat with the collapse of its attempt at a massive protest and a general strike.
Plus: Tucker Carlson, Daryl Cooper and the rising tide of antisemitism on the American right. -
Mike explains why what the press is telling us about Israel's preemptive strike does not add up. Apparently, something different is going on.
Also on this episode: why getting your news from Israeli English language sources is a tricky business. -
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has announced at the end of a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday that Netanyahu has accepted the new US bridging proposal for a hostage deal, and now Hamas should too, the Secretary said. But Netanyahu's detractors in Israel, as well as Hamas, insist on blaming the Israeli Prime Minister for sabotaging the deal. In Israel that alleged sabotage is tied to the controversy over the Philadelphi Corridor, the border between Gaza and Egypt where the IDF has so far found about 200 smuggling tunnels. Gadi and Mike discuss the politics around the deal in Israel, the US, and among Hamas and its allies – all in the shadow of a looming regional war.
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Israel's existence depends on breaking Iran's drive for regional hegemony. This may take more than a few years, and probably several wars. The early history of Israel offers some useful lessons.
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