Afleveringen
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I was able to get Rudy Havenstein on the podcast last week for a great conversation. We talked about his investing strategy, real estate, inflation, and much more. If you donât already follow him on Twitter, heâs one of the most entertaining accounts to follow.
I donât see volatility as risk. I see risk as permanent loss of capital.
Podcast Summary
* His investing strategy, which is focused on the long term and looking for stuff that is out of favor. Heâs heavy in energy but also has some stuff he has been hanging onto for three decades.
* His thoughts on real estate and chance that younger generations get a buying opportunity in the next couple years.
* Competition from institutions in the single family housing market.
* Private equity hollowing out different industries.
* We spent some time bagging on Paul Krugman and how the Fed and ZIRP contributed to wealth inequality and the generation divide, as well as the some of the division we see in the country today.
* American culture and the current state of affairs overseas.
* Book Recommendation: Deterring Democracy by Noam Chomsky
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Last week I had Matt Erickson of the Kingpilled podcast on the show to talk about the PayPal Mafia. Weâre closing in on two months to election day, and I wanted to get him on to chat about some of the influential groups behind the scenes and what he sees coming for the rest of the year. Mattâs worth a follow, and you can find him on YouTube and Twitter.
Podcast Summary
* We go down the PayPal Mafia rabbit hole, talking about the influence of figures like Peter Thiel and Elon Musk.
* We discussed the Boomer Truth Regime, generational differences, and the parallels between the Boomer and Millennial generations, and the parallels between the Gen X and Zoomer generations.
* JD Vance being the first millennial politician on a presidential ticket, and the idea that heâs a life insurance policy for Trump.
* Elon Musk and the influence Twitter has on shifting the Overton window.
* America as an economic zone instead of a country, and the plan to bring manufacturing back to the country.
* The Trump Assassination attempt and how different events end up getting memory holed.
* Illegal immigration, mass deportations, and the importance of local governance.
* The Birth of the American Empire and where the country might be headed over the next 50 to 100 years.
* Book Recommendation: The Brothers: John Foster Dulles, Allen Dulles, and Their Secret World War by Stephen Kinzer.
* We also talked briefly about the recent Tucker Carlson Interview of Geoff Shepard on Watergate and Richard Nixon.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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This was one of my favorite podcasts I have recorded so far and I had to go listen to it a second time last night. I havenât found many investors like PauloMacro that are as good at painting a picture of where we are today in financial markets and where we might be going. If you arenât able to get enough from his Substack, you can also find him on Twitter.
Inflationary recessions create monetary illusions.
There are a lot of moving pieces in financial markets and geopolitics right now, and Paulo does a great job of setting the stage before diving into different commodities and opportunities in certain sectors. There were three takeaways that I think everyone should consider in their investing process:
* Why Paulo looks for commodities or sectors âgoing to sleepâ or being invisible for a while.
* How positioning, sentiment, and narrative impact his investing process.
* Why there is no clear way to express the trade in certain situations.
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A lot of people seemed to like this format, so I figured I would stick with it. I talked a bit about some of my thoughts on the inverted yield curve, interest rates, and recession. I also talked about oil and geopolitical risk, recent events in the coal sector, and current political events. For paid subscribers, I also talked about recent trades and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM .
Summary
* Some rough thoughts on a recession, rate cuts, and the inverted yield curve.
* Oil - On top of the events I discussed in Sundayâs post, I talked about Libya shutting down production and exports and Russia hitting energy grid targets in Ukraine. I also took a look at the oil to gold ratio, and compared prices today to where we were 10 or 15 years ago, adjusted for inflation.
* Coal - M&A activity, Peabody Energy $BTU activism, and Yancoal dividends.
* Politics - I had a quick rant on the Unrealized Capital Gains Proposal, the state of Europe (particularly Britain and France), free speech, and RFK endorsing Trump.
* I also did a quick portfolio update on Navios Maritime Partners, and recent trading activity for paid subscribers below.
Portfolio Weights
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Last week I had Vince Lanci on the podcast. Heâs a veteran trader and the author of the Gold Fix Substack. You can also find him on Twitter. We talked about the unnatural price action in oil, the precious metals and some opportunities there, as well as some of the interesting dynamics going on between the Fed and the Treasury. You can also watch the video on YouTube below.
Podcast Summary
* Vinceâs expected path for oil over the next three to five years.
* His thoughts on how the election could impact that path.
* The paper market versus the physical market for oil.
* Hedge fund activity in oil shrinking while CTAs (trend followers) having a bigger impact.
* The WTI contract becoming an orphan contract.
* The Permian Basin and offshore vs. onshore production.
* Precious metals and some of the opportunities in the platinum miners.
* The Fed and the Treasury (aka Powell & Yellen) working against each other.
* Book Recommendations: The Wager by David Grann & The Origins Of Totalitarianism by Hannah Arendt
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I decided to keep this one free for everyone so I could experiment with a new format. I wanted to put out a quick update on what I think is interesting right now in the portfolio. Like all of my best ideas, the name came to me at 2:00 in the morning while I was staring at the ceiling waiting to fall asleep. If any of you have suggestions for features you would like to see on the Substack, or topics you want me to cover, feel free to send me a message or leave a comment.
Video Summary
* Calumetâs $CLMT recent C-corp conversion, and the potential catalyst of a loan from the Department of Energy in the next couple weeks.
* Borr Drillingâs $BORR recent Q2 earnings, additional borrowing, and new build delivery. Hint: the inflection is here and 2025 is going to be interesting.
* A large portion of Valarisâ $VAL fleet repricing between now and the end of 2025, along with the poor timing of their Q2 earnings report.
* Transocean $RIG insider buying.
* Peabody Energyâs $BTU increased buyback program and the exit of Elliott Investment Management.
* HFI Researchâs piece on oil production and my thoughts on bearish oil positioning.
Disclaimer
I own shares of Borr Drilling, Transocean, and Peabody Energy. I also own calls on Calumet, Transocean, Peabody Energy, and Valaris warrants. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.
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Last week I had Dexter White on the podcast. Heâs the editor of Gold, Goats nâ Guns and I enjoyed our conversation. You can also find him on Twitter. We covered the US election, geopolitics, unrealized capital gains, artificial intelligence, and more. You can also watch it on YouTube below.
Podcast Summary
* We covered the US Presidential election and Tim Walz as the VP pick for the Democrats.
* The Trump assassination attempt and his thoughts on a second attempt.
* Iran, Israel, and the potential path for escalation in the Middle East
* Ukraine and the different factions with influence over events in Eastern Europe.
* Unrealized capital gains being a backdoor wealth tax.
* His thoughts on a comprehensive European asset database.
* The potential for a recession and his thoughts on the Fed and rate cuts.
* Artificial intelligence, biologic brain chips, and the slippery slope.
* Book Recommendation: The Goal by Eliyahu Goldratt.
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I had Dave Collum and Tom Luongo on the podcast fairly early, so naturally I was getting questions on when I would have Jim Kunstler on the podcast. Heâs the author of The Long Emergency, and is a sharp commentator on current events, politics, and changes in long term trends. He writes two posts a week on his Substack that are just as likely to make you laugh as they are to make you angry about the predicament America is in today. This episode was recorded before Biden dropped out of the race, so we didnât get into that, but we did talk a bit about what the rest of 2024 has in store for us. You can also watch it on YouTube.
Podcast Summary
* Trump being a lock to win this yearâs election after the assassination attempt.
* Jim talks about demoralization and peak insanity on the cultural front.
* He talks about the Deep State and its outsized influence on current events.
* The slow decline that America could be facing in coming decades.
* Office real estate and issues on the horizon for cities and suburbs.
* The history of shale oil vs. conventional oil and some of the nuances there.
* Lack of trust in our government and institutions.
* The irredeemable nature of mainstream media.
* The fragility of the electric grid, and how it might be a target in the future.
* Book Recommendation: Anything by Carl Jung.
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Last week I had Anas Alhajji on the podcast to discuss all things energy. For anyone interested in oil, gas, or coal, you will definitely learn something from this one. We hit on a wide variety of topics, but you can also watch it on YouTube here. We talked about the greatly exaggerated death of the petrodollar, and what would be required for the Saudi Riyal to depeg from the US Dollar. I know that I have listened to multiple podcasts recently talking about the death of the petrodollar, and Anas picks that idea apart in great detail.
He also broke down how energy industry data has deteriorated since 2017 and how misleading headlines have become common in recent years. Anas also explained why he is taking the other side of the so-called renewable (Solar, Wind, and EV) bet. Below is a link from Anas on recent headlines from EV manufacturers. He also talked about the various uses for petrochemicals and how a massive increase in energy demand from things like AI could eventually lead to an energy crisis. His book recommendation, How To Win An Information War by Peter Pomerantsev, ties directly to his thoughts on misleading headlines.
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Earlier this week, I had Mike Farris on the podcast. Heâs the host of the Coffee and a Mike podcast, where has guests on to discuss a wide range of topics, from geopolitics and current events to financial markets and health. We had a great discussion covering what America has in store in coming years and some of the issues we face as a country. You can also watch it on YouTube.
Podcast Summary
We hit on a wide range of topics on the podcast, including:
* The golden era of academia being over, and issues with higher education and student debt.
* What the next 6 months look like for American politics.
* Weaponized immigration, and the changing cultural fabric of the country.
* The carnivore diet, other health topics, and issues with the food supply.
* The potential for a long slow decline versus an abrupt collapse to Mad Max world.
* My experience in college and public accounting with DEI.
* The American cultural divide.
* Book Recommendation: How To Win Friends And Influence People by Dale Carnegie
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Late last week I had Andy from Finding Value Finance on the podcast to discuss his thoughts on markets, commodities, and where some of the best opportunities in the market are. He has great daily updates on what is going with the market, commodities, and other sectors of interest. You can also find him on Twitter. He looks at fundamentals as well as technicals, and is a part of why I have started to include some technical analysis in my process. I have included the video below, but you can also watch it on YouTube.
Podcast Summary
We covered a bunch of different investing topics on the podcast, including:
* The long term supply and demand picture for oil, and the demand destruction price being higher than most people expect.
* Natural gas being cheap on a relative basis, and how some of the Canadian energy companies might be an interesting way to play the commodity.
* Why coal isnât a dying industry, and his thoughts on thermal vs. met coal.
* Precious metals, and why the miners are very cheap relative to the metal.
* How platinum is cheap compared to all of the other metals, and how it is a concentrated sector.
* His thoughts on emerging markets, position sizing, time horizon, asymmetry, and buying calls/LEAPS to speculate on different assets.
* Why steel, iron, and fertilizers are interesting sectors to look at today.
* Book Recommendations: One Up On Wall Street by Peter Lynch, and Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Jesse Livermore.
* The reasons you canât just develop investing skills from reading books, and the importance of controlling your emotions.
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Before I knew anything about what happened with President Trump and the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania, I had invited Mark Wauck onto the podcast yesterday for an update on the geopolitical situation. Mark is a retired FBI agent who writes Meaning in History on Substack. After the events this weekend, we obviously took a detour into the situation with Trump, how it might impact the election, and other things to watch for as the election approaches. We also covered the messy geopolitical landscape in Ukraine, the Middle East, and China. If you would rather watch the video, which is also on YouTube, check it out below.
Podcast Summary
This wasnât the typical podcast focused on investments, but I think itâs important to keep an eye on the geopolitical events for a variety of reasons. On the podcast, we discussed:
* The Trump assassination attempt, and the impact on the election.
* Secret Service incompetency.
* Mainstream mediaâs coverage of the event, and Twitterâs growing importance as the public square.
* The shift in the FBI since he retired, and how having prosecutors at the head of the FBI has changed things over the last couple decades.
* Trumpâs VP Pick.
* The tough situation the Democrats are in leading up to the election.
* Whatâs going on in Ukraine and why he thinks things could collapse sooner rather than later.
* Israelâs influence on US politics and their current situation in relation to Palestine, Lebanon, and Iran.
* China, Taiwan, and why a hot war in Asia is unlikely.
* Book Recommendation: The Unity Of Philosophical Experience by Etienne Gilson.
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I had Christine Guerrero on the podcast last week to talk about oil and whatâs going on in energy markets today. Sheâs a good follow on Twitter for any of the social media junkies out there. You can also watch the podcast on YouTube. We also discussed stocks in different parts of the energy sector, including Frontera and Petrobras $PBR . Iâll be touching on both stocks briefly in my portfolio update later this week.
Podcast Summary
We covered lots of topics, including:
* An in depth walkthrough of the long term supply and demand picture for oil.
* Capex underinvestment over the last decade.
* Permian Basin recency bias.
* Frack spreads vs. rig count as an indicator for oil markets.
* Negative natural gas prices at the Permian terminal and Waha terminal.
* The Matterhorn pipeline coming online at the end of Q3, which should add additional pipeline capacity for the Permian.
* The Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
* Frontera Energyâs current situation with their offshore block in Guyana.
* Petrobras vs. Lula, and the political uncertainty around the company.
* Book Recommendations: How To Listen When Markets Speak by Larry McDonald and Animal Spirits by George Akerlof.
âThey [Wood MacKenzie] actually believe that by 2034, weâre going to need to add another 22 million barrels a day of new liquids production.â
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I had Tom Luongo on the podcast recently, and we got into a wide ranging discussion on markets, geopolitics, and current events. Heâs the author of Gold, Goats nâ Guns and definitely worth checking out. Heâs also very entertaining on Twitter. If you would rather watch on YouTube, the link is here. Tom went into detail on a bunch of topics, including:
* The Geopolitical Chess Board, and the different competing factions in power.
* The Federal Reserve, interest rates, and the path forward from here.
* Oil and other commodities.
* The 2024 Election: Biden, Trumpâs VP pick, and other topics.
* Book Recommendation: Ubik by Philip K. Dick.
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We have a double dip on the podcast this week, so instead of the Videos Of The Week post, I wanted to drop my conversation with Dave Collum for you guys. Heâs a professor of Organic Chemistry at Cornell and a must follow on Twitter. Heâs also a sharp investor and entertaining market commentator. If you would rather watch the podcast on YouTube, hereâs a link. On the podcast, we discussed:
* Financial markets and the ridiculous overvaluation of some of the largest stocks: âI think the Magnificent Seven is going to become the Magnificent Zero.â
* The impact of passive investing on the market.
* The Presidential Election and his thoughts on Biden, Trump, and how things might play out between now and November 5.
* The generational divide, including the wealth gap between old and young, the upcoming wealth transfer to younger generations, and its potential impact on the real estate market.
* Book Recommendations: Psychology of Totalitarianism by Mattias Desmet and American Betrayal by Diana West.
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I had Steve from Unemployed Value Degen on the podcast the other day. Heâs a relatively new Substack writer, and I was interested to chat with him on Transocean $RIG and several other companies heâs interested in. You can find his Substack here. If you want to watch it on YouTube, hereâs a link. We spent a good bit of time chatting about Transocean and offshore, but we also covered several other stocks, including:
* Sibanye Stillwater $SBSW and his thoughts on the mining sector
* Peabody Energy $BTU and his thoughts on their buyback program.
* He also talks about some stocks that are frequent targets of short sellers.
* B. Riley $RILY , and why he thinks their core business could improve after a rough couple years, and some of the assets they could sell.
* GameStop $GME , and how he thinks there could be value there outside of the speculative mania.
* Medical Properties Trust $MPW , and his thoughts on the issues with a main tenant and the discount to book value.
* His book recommendations: Opening Skinnerâs Box by Lauren Slater and On The Nature Of Mass Movements by Eric Hoffer
Disclaimer
I own shares of Transocean and Peabody Energy. I also own calls on Transocean and Peabody Energy. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.
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I had John Polomny on the podcast recently, and we had a wide ranging discussion on what heâs paying attention to today. He writes the Actionable Intelligence Alert, a Substack you guys should check out. You can also find the video on YouTube, or on the main podcast platforms. We talked about investments and current events, among other things:
* Johnâs experience and background in the power industry
* The shift from peak ESG to a more pragmatic approach to energy policy
* His natural gas outlook, and why itâs in his too hard pile
* The supply and demand picture for oil, and his thoughts on the Permian Basin
* His thoughts on precious metals
* Other under the radar opportunities around the world
* His opinion the decline of the West and the current geopolitical landscape
* His book recommendation: The Black Book Of Communism (several authors)
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I hope everyone had a good Memorial Day weekend. I recently had Matt Warder, who recently took over The Coal Trader, on the podcast. You can also watch it on YouTube here. He is an expert on all things coal. We chatted for an hour on the coal sector and some the stocks that might be interesting to you. You can find him on Twitter as well.
We talked about Mattâs thoughts on a bunch of other coal related topics, including:
* The long term future of the sector.
* His thoughts on buybacks.
* Peabody, their Centurion mine, and Elliott heading for the exit.
* Warrior Met Coal being very attractive below $60, and the plan for Blue Creek over the next couple years.
* We also discussed Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Consol Energy, Whitehaven, Corsa Coal, Glencore and Teck.
* Mattâs Book Recommendations: Thinking, Fast And Slow by Daniel Kahneman & Narrative Economics by Bob Shiller.
Note: Since this podcast was recorded, Elliott Investment Management filed to sell their remaining 1.4M shares of Peabody Energy BTU .
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I had Phil Gibson as the first guest on the Kontrarian Korner podcast. If you want to read his work, you can find his Substack at QPOL. If you want to watch it on YouTube, check out my channel here.
We talked about multiple topics, including:
* Fed policy, and the potential to put gold on the yield curve
* The different factions on the geopolitical chessboard
* His thoughts on Bitcoin, why he owns it, and why he thinks everyone should own some.
* I asked him how investors new to Bitcoin (me) could dollar cost average into Bitcoin
* Book Recommendation: The House Of Morgan by Ron Chernow
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A quick hit introduction on my background as an investor and how I got to writing on Substack and starting a podcast.
Check my stuff out on Substack at https://www.kontrariankorner.com/ or on Twitter at https://twitter.com/BR_Kelleran.
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