Afleveringen
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Yesterday I had Peter R. Quiñones on the podcast to discuss the upcoming Presidential Election, geopolitical events in the Middle East and Ukraine, and our occupied government. You should all go check out Pete’s podcast and his Twitter. He’s a very entertaining follow, and his frequent podcasts are one of the reasons I stayed sane during the COVID lockdowns a couple years ago.
Podcast Summary
* The predicament that the Regime has with letting Trump become President.
* Why he thinks Trump will win, and why the election won’t be called on election night.
* Which swing states might have issues with the vote.
* The potential for lawfare or another assassination attempt before inauguration day.
* Jeff Bezos and some of the recent developments at the Washington Post
* His thoughts on Elon Musk’s influence, and how the Senate and House results might impact things.
* The impact of potential deportations on things like real estate, wages, and cost of living.
* Israeli influence on US politics, and the occupied state of the US federal government.
* His thoughts on what is going on in the Middle East and Ukraine.
* Why the US won’t become a monarchy until the managerial state has been abolished.
* Federalism and the importance of local government, specifically the sheriff.
* His thoughts on eliminating the income tax for tariffs, and why you would need to deregulate in a big way to make tariffs work.
* Book Recommendation: Race War In High School by Harold Saltzman (go listen to Pete’s full book reading on this one), and Imperium by Francis Parker Yockey (also recommended by Stormy Waters).
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Once you realize it’s all nonsense then it all makes sense.
A couple days ago, I had fellow Substack author Le Shrub on the podcast. He writes over at Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator, and if you don’t already follow him, you should. He’s clearly the most talented trader in the plant kingdom, but we had a great conversation on different commodities, the market, and several stocks of interest. He’s also a very entertaining follow on Twitter.
Podcast Summary
* His preferred way to get exposure to oil, and what it takes for geopolitical risk to get priced into oil markets.
* The Trump trades, and how a Trump win might be worse for deficits, bonds, and the dollar.
* Why platinum is his preferred precious metal inflation hedge, Costco’s $COST (yes, that Costco) potential impact on a platinum bull market, and how platinum is trading at the widest discount to gold in history.
* His thoughts on several coal stocks, including Peabody Energy $BTU and Warrior Met Coal $HCC , and the outlook for metallurgical vs. thermal coal.
* Why tin is one of his favorite under the radar opportunities in the commodities space.
* His thoughts on broader markets, what he’s looking for to get bearish, and why investors should keep an eye on China.
* Book Recommendation: The Gambler by Fyodor Dostoevsky.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Yesterday I had Larry Johnson on the podcast to talk about all of the things going on around the world. He’s former CIA and a very sharp geopolitical analyst. We talked about what is going on in the Middle East with Israel and Iran, Ukraine, and how the US Presidential election might play out. You can find him at SONAR21, where he breaks down current events here in the US and abroad.
Podcast Summary
* We talk about Israel and the multiple fronts that have been in the news as of late.
* The impact of propaganda in the US on older generations and their view of Israel, with the movie Exodus as one example.
* How younger generations have a very different view of Israel in light of recent events.
* How Israel started the conflict with Iran (attacking their consulate), and how Iran might retaliate if Israel targets oil, nuclear, or military targets.
* His thoughts on whether or not Iran has nukes, and the recent potential underground nuclear test in Iran.
* Will the US get more involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran?
* The various problems facing Ukraine in their fight against Russia.
* Drone warfare, and developments of new capabilities being developed and used in the Ukrainian theater.
* Why he thinks Trump will win in the upcoming election.
* The shifting media narrative machine and how SNL is a warning indicator for Kamala and her chances.
* Immigration, gaslighting, and what might happen with immigration if Kamala is installed.
* Book Recommendations: America’s Last War & Losing Military Supremacy by Andrei Martyanov.
* Bonus Movie Recommendation: Exodus.
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Last week I had Mihail Stoyanov, the author of TheOldEconomy, on the podcast to talk about shipping, commodities, and his investment strategy. With his background in the shipping sector, he was able to give some valuable insights into the different subsectors worth keeping an eye on moving forward. We also talked about commodities, his options strategy, and other opportunities he finds attractive today.
Podcast Summary
* We talked about why he likes Cape Size vessels, and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM in particular.
* His thoughts on the LNG sector, and what makes Dynagas $DLNG and their ICE class vessels attractive (their 6 vessel fleet includes 5 ICE class vessels).
*A Quick Note: I looked this up after the recording, but Dynagas is a Master Limited Partnership, which requires a K-1 tax form here in the US. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
* Why he likes the shipbuilding sector and Seatrium in particular.
* His bullish views on precious metals and the different ways he expresses that view for gold, silver, and PGMs.
* Golar LNG $GLNG , their unique assets, and why he still likes the company.
* His thoughts on the steel sector, Gerdau $GGB , and emerging markets like Brazil.
* We also talked about his options strategy and what he looks for when taking a position.
* Book Recommendation: Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke.
Disclaimer
We talked about several companies that one (or both) of us might have investments in. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.
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We had a double dip on the podcast last week, so I’ll be posting this one instead of the Videos of the Week. I had Stormy Waters on the podcast, someone who is a must follow on Twitter. He is anonymous, but he has sold a couple businesses and is now focused on venture capital, private businesses, commodities, and public equities. It was one of those conversations where you forget you’re even recording. The YouTube hall monitors probably wouldn’t like some of the language, so fair warning on that, but this one will be audio only. This episode will have something for everyone, but I guarantee you will learn a thing or two.
“Commodity prices have been artificially suppressed for the better part of seventy years. We’re talking about a much larger correction now aren’t we?
We’re looking at a once in 150 year commodity supercycle.”
Podcast Summary
* The manipulation in oil markets and European sovereign debt markets, which are increasing in frequency and size.
* Why he thinks oil is capped not because of the upcoming Presidential election, but because of the inflation that Europe would feel if oil goes higher.
* The different types of dollars, and why he’s short the Euro and the Pound.
* How the US lifted other countries out of poverty over the last several decades.
* The situation in Israel and the rift between Netanyahu and Trump, and why Netanyahu will look to expand the war in Iran and/or Lebanon. This was recorded on 10/26, so that call looks pretty good in light of recent events in Lebanon.
* Why he’s bullish on commodities across the board. We talked about some of his picks in uranium, natural gas, steel, and gold miners.
* Why he thinks the France’s sovereign debt market will be the first domino in Europe to kick things off for a sovereign debt collapse.
* The impact of the so-called Robber Barons (aka the great American men of that era), the pursuit of the good, true, and beautiful, and the noblesse oblige that is missing from today’s billionaire class.
* The state of the bullion market, the LBMA, and JP Morgan’s influence on bullion.
* How Eurodollars are used to suppress commodity prices bought from other countries, and then finished goods are sold to those same countries.
* What led to the decline of the birth rate in developed nations (feminism, women’s liberation, and women in the work force), and how to fix it.
* Book Recommendations: The House of Morgan by Ron Chernow; Imperium by Francis Parker Yockey; Men Among The Ruins by Julius Evola.
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I wanted to ramble on some of my thoughts on three situations that I’m paying the most attention to right now, and why I have been adding to Sable Offshore $SOC and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM . I also talk about Calumet $CLMT and what I’m watching there between now and mid-October. I’ll be writing part 2 today, which will focus on the rest the portfolio, different commodities, and sectors I have focused on over the last year and change. I’ll also write a bit about my thoughts on recent trades, and it should be out tomorrow morning.
Portfolio Weights
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After talking with Vince Lanci VBL a while back, he said I should have Brynne Kelly on to talk about oil markets, and after the recent action in oil, I figured now was as good of a time as any. We talked about oil and natural gas, LNG, energy infrastructure, among other topics.
Podcast Summary
* Her view on owning energy equities, and why she prefers to get energy exposure directly through the commodities.
* OPEC spare capacity as the overhang on oil markets for now.
* Her thoughts on oil going negative in 2020, and how storage and infrastructure are a bottleneck for oil and natural gas.
* How she uses the shape of the futures curve to gauge sentiment and positioning.
* The regulatory risk for investing in energy infrastructure, and her thoughts on geopolitical risk.
* Her time horizon with a typical trade.
* LNG (liquefied natural gas), and why she’s skeptical that all of the planned projects will get built.
* Why interstate pipelines won’t happen in this environment, and hydrocarbon infrastructure will not be brought online without a political change or significant crisis.
* Book Recommendation: Short by Cortwright McMeel.
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This week I had Judd Arnold of Lake Cornelia Research Management on the podcast. We discussed two companies I have been very interested in, Sable Offshore $SOC and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM . Judd walked through the numbers on both companies and explained what he thinks the next couple years look like for both companies. We also discussed some of the names in the offshore space, which has had a rough month along with oil.
Podcast Summary
* The regulatory situation in California and how it impacts Sable.
* Why the recent settlement with Santa Barbara County took out a bunch of the risk.
* Sable’s path to production and the potential for future capital returns.
* The potential for carbon capture with Sable’s land holdings.
* The situation for Navios and his recent memo on the company.
* Why he’s bullish on Navios’ new builds, even though most shipping investors hate new builds.
* We discuss the options chains and why Navios LEAPS might be interesting for risk tolerant investors.
* We talked about China’s shipbuilding sector, The Jones Act, and why shipbuilding won’t come back to the US.
* Why he prefers Tidewater $TDW to Seacor $SMHI .
* His thoughts on Borr $BORR , Valaris $VAL and Transocean $RIG .
* Book Recommendation: The Invisible Billionaire: Daniel Ludwig by Jerry Shields.
Disclaimer
I own shares of Sable, Navios Maritime Partners, Tidewater, Borr, and Seacor. I also own calls on Navios and Transocean, as well as Valaris warrants. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.
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I wanted to get something out early this week after the bloodbath for oil and the energy equities. Price drives narrative, and we saw that last week for oil. I’m still stubbornly bullish, but that doesn’t mean oil won’t go lower short-term. I do think that the risk/reward from here is skewed, but that doesn’t make last week any less painful.
Summary
* I went through some of the things I found interesting on oil, from inventories, to DUCs (drilled, uncompleted wells), sentiment, and positioning.
* I also talked about the potential for a dockworker strike, with a deadline of October 1st.
* I talked briefly about the shifting of the Overton Window on things like immigration, and the discussion around WWII and Winston Churchill.
* For paid subscribers, I explained my logic on recent portfolio moves, and why I’m very bullish on Sable Offshore $SOC and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM .
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I was able to get Rudy Havenstein on the podcast last week for a great conversation. We talked about his investing strategy, real estate, inflation, and much more. If you don’t already follow him on Twitter, he’s one of the most entertaining accounts to follow.
I don’t see volatility as risk. I see risk as permanent loss of capital.
Podcast Summary
* His investing strategy, which is focused on the long term and looking for stuff that is out of favor. He’s heavy in energy but also has some stuff he has been hanging onto for three decades.
* His thoughts on real estate and chance that younger generations get a buying opportunity in the next couple years.
* Competition from institutions in the single family housing market.
* Private equity hollowing out different industries.
* We spent some time bagging on Paul Krugman and how the Fed and ZIRP contributed to wealth inequality and the generation divide, as well as the some of the division we see in the country today.
* American culture and the current state of affairs overseas.
* Book Recommendation: Deterring Democracy by Noam Chomsky
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Last week I had Matt Erickson of the Kingpilled podcast on the show to talk about the PayPal Mafia. We’re closing in on two months to election day, and I wanted to get him on to chat about some of the influential groups behind the scenes and what he sees coming for the rest of the year. Matt’s worth a follow, and you can find him on YouTube and Twitter.
Podcast Summary
* We go down the PayPal Mafia rabbit hole, talking about the influence of figures like Peter Thiel and Elon Musk.
* We discussed the Boomer Truth Regime, generational differences, and the parallels between the Boomer and Millennial generations, and the parallels between the Gen X and Zoomer generations.
* JD Vance being the first millennial politician on a presidential ticket, and the idea that he’s a life insurance policy for Trump.
* Elon Musk and the influence Twitter has on shifting the Overton window.
* America as an economic zone instead of a country, and the plan to bring manufacturing back to the country.
* The Trump Assassination attempt and how different events end up getting memory holed.
* Illegal immigration, mass deportations, and the importance of local governance.
* The Birth of the American Empire and where the country might be headed over the next 50 to 100 years.
* Book Recommendation: The Brothers: John Foster Dulles, Allen Dulles, and Their Secret World War by Stephen Kinzer.
* We also talked briefly about the recent Tucker Carlson Interview of Geoff Shepard on Watergate and Richard Nixon.
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This was one of my favorite podcasts I have recorded so far and I had to go listen to it a second time last night. I haven’t found many investors like PauloMacro that are as good at painting a picture of where we are today in financial markets and where we might be going. If you aren’t able to get enough from his Substack, you can also find him on Twitter.
Inflationary recessions create monetary illusions.
There are a lot of moving pieces in financial markets and geopolitics right now, and Paulo does a great job of setting the stage before diving into different commodities and opportunities in certain sectors. There were three takeaways that I think everyone should consider in their investing process:
* Why Paulo looks for commodities or sectors “going to sleep” or being invisible for a while.
* How positioning, sentiment, and narrative impact his investing process.
* Why there is no clear way to express the trade in certain situations.
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A lot of people seemed to like this format, so I figured I would stick with it. I talked a bit about some of my thoughts on the inverted yield curve, interest rates, and recession. I also talked about oil and geopolitical risk, recent events in the coal sector, and current political events. For paid subscribers, I also talked about recent trades and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM .
Summary
* Some rough thoughts on a recession, rate cuts, and the inverted yield curve.
* Oil - On top of the events I discussed in Sunday’s post, I talked about Libya shutting down production and exports and Russia hitting energy grid targets in Ukraine. I also took a look at the oil to gold ratio, and compared prices today to where we were 10 or 15 years ago, adjusted for inflation.
* Coal - M&A activity, Peabody Energy $BTU activism, and Yancoal dividends.
* Politics - I had a quick rant on the Unrealized Capital Gains Proposal, the state of Europe (particularly Britain and France), free speech, and RFK endorsing Trump.
* I also did a quick portfolio update on Navios Maritime Partners, and recent trading activity for paid subscribers below.
Portfolio Weights
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Last week I had Vince Lanci on the podcast. He’s a veteran trader and the author of the Gold Fix Substack. You can also find him on Twitter. We talked about the unnatural price action in oil, the precious metals and some opportunities there, as well as some of the interesting dynamics going on between the Fed and the Treasury. You can also watch the video on YouTube below.
Podcast Summary
* Vince’s expected path for oil over the next three to five years.
* His thoughts on how the election could impact that path.
* The paper market versus the physical market for oil.
* Hedge fund activity in oil shrinking while CTAs (trend followers) having a bigger impact.
* The WTI contract becoming an orphan contract.
* The Permian Basin and offshore vs. onshore production.
* Precious metals and some of the opportunities in the platinum miners.
* The Fed and the Treasury (aka Powell & Yellen) working against each other.
* Book Recommendations: The Wager by David Grann & The Origins Of Totalitarianism by Hannah Arendt
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I decided to keep this one free for everyone so I could experiment with a new format. I wanted to put out a quick update on what I think is interesting right now in the portfolio. Like all of my best ideas, the name came to me at 2:00 in the morning while I was staring at the ceiling waiting to fall asleep. If any of you have suggestions for features you would like to see on the Substack, or topics you want me to cover, feel free to send me a message or leave a comment.
Video Summary
* Calumet’s $CLMT recent C-corp conversion, and the potential catalyst of a loan from the Department of Energy in the next couple weeks.
* Borr Drilling’s $BORR recent Q2 earnings, additional borrowing, and new build delivery. Hint: the inflection is here and 2025 is going to be interesting.
* A large portion of Valaris’ $VAL fleet repricing between now and the end of 2025, along with the poor timing of their Q2 earnings report.
* Transocean $RIG insider buying.
* Peabody Energy’s $BTU increased buyback program and the exit of Elliott Investment Management.
* HFI Research’s piece on oil production and my thoughts on bearish oil positioning.
Disclaimer
I own shares of Borr Drilling, Transocean, and Peabody Energy. I also own calls on Calumet, Transocean, Peabody Energy, and Valaris warrants. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.
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Last week I had Dexter White on the podcast. He’s the editor of Gold, Goats n’ Guns and I enjoyed our conversation. You can also find him on Twitter. We covered the US election, geopolitics, unrealized capital gains, artificial intelligence, and more. You can also watch it on YouTube below.
Podcast Summary
* We covered the US Presidential election and Tim Walz as the VP pick for the Democrats.
* The Trump assassination attempt and his thoughts on a second attempt.
* Iran, Israel, and the potential path for escalation in the Middle East
* Ukraine and the different factions with influence over events in Eastern Europe.
* Unrealized capital gains being a backdoor wealth tax.
* His thoughts on a comprehensive European asset database.
* The potential for a recession and his thoughts on the Fed and rate cuts.
* Artificial intelligence, biologic brain chips, and the slippery slope.
* Book Recommendation: The Goal by Eliyahu Goldratt.
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I had Dave Collum and Tom Luongo on the podcast fairly early, so naturally I was getting questions on when I would have Jim Kunstler on the podcast. He’s the author of The Long Emergency, and is a sharp commentator on current events, politics, and changes in long term trends. He writes two posts a week on his Substack that are just as likely to make you laugh as they are to make you angry about the predicament America is in today. This episode was recorded before Biden dropped out of the race, so we didn’t get into that, but we did talk a bit about what the rest of 2024 has in store for us. You can also watch it on YouTube.
Podcast Summary
* Trump being a lock to win this year’s election after the assassination attempt.
* Jim talks about demoralization and peak insanity on the cultural front.
* He talks about the Deep State and its outsized influence on current events.
* The slow decline that America could be facing in coming decades.
* Office real estate and issues on the horizon for cities and suburbs.
* The history of shale oil vs. conventional oil and some of the nuances there.
* Lack of trust in our government and institutions.
* The irredeemable nature of mainstream media.
* The fragility of the electric grid, and how it might be a target in the future.
* Book Recommendation: Anything by Carl Jung.
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Last week I had Anas Alhajji on the podcast to discuss all things energy. For anyone interested in oil, gas, or coal, you will definitely learn something from this one. We hit on a wide variety of topics, but you can also watch it on YouTube here. We talked about the greatly exaggerated death of the petrodollar, and what would be required for the Saudi Riyal to depeg from the US Dollar. I know that I have listened to multiple podcasts recently talking about the death of the petrodollar, and Anas picks that idea apart in great detail.
He also broke down how energy industry data has deteriorated since 2017 and how misleading headlines have become common in recent years. Anas also explained why he is taking the other side of the so-called renewable (Solar, Wind, and EV) bet. Below is a link from Anas on recent headlines from EV manufacturers. He also talked about the various uses for petrochemicals and how a massive increase in energy demand from things like AI could eventually lead to an energy crisis. His book recommendation, How To Win An Information War by Peter Pomerantsev, ties directly to his thoughts on misleading headlines.
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Earlier this week, I had Mike Farris on the podcast. He’s the host of the Coffee and a Mike podcast, where has guests on to discuss a wide range of topics, from geopolitics and current events to financial markets and health. We had a great discussion covering what America has in store in coming years and some of the issues we face as a country. You can also watch it on YouTube.
Podcast Summary
We hit on a wide range of topics on the podcast, including:
* The golden era of academia being over, and issues with higher education and student debt.
* What the next 6 months look like for American politics.
* Weaponized immigration, and the changing cultural fabric of the country.
* The carnivore diet, other health topics, and issues with the food supply.
* The potential for a long slow decline versus an abrupt collapse to Mad Max world.
* My experience in college and public accounting with DEI.
* The American cultural divide.
* Book Recommendation: How To Win Friends And Influence People by Dale Carnegie
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Late last week I had Andy from Finding Value Finance on the podcast to discuss his thoughts on markets, commodities, and where some of the best opportunities in the market are. He has great daily updates on what is going with the market, commodities, and other sectors of interest. You can also find him on Twitter. He looks at fundamentals as well as technicals, and is a part of why I have started to include some technical analysis in my process. I have included the video below, but you can also watch it on YouTube.
Podcast Summary
We covered a bunch of different investing topics on the podcast, including:
* The long term supply and demand picture for oil, and the demand destruction price being higher than most people expect.
* Natural gas being cheap on a relative basis, and how some of the Canadian energy companies might be an interesting way to play the commodity.
* Why coal isn’t a dying industry, and his thoughts on thermal vs. met coal.
* Precious metals, and why the miners are very cheap relative to the metal.
* How platinum is cheap compared to all of the other metals, and how it is a concentrated sector.
* His thoughts on emerging markets, position sizing, time horizon, asymmetry, and buying calls/LEAPS to speculate on different assets.
* Why steel, iron, and fertilizers are interesting sectors to look at today.
* Book Recommendations: One Up On Wall Street by Peter Lynch, and Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Jesse Livermore.
* The reasons you can’t just develop investing skills from reading books, and the importance of controlling your emotions.
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