Afleveringen
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The first bank failure of 2024 is a familiar tale. A relatively small institution in Philadelphia, by itself it doesn't really mean all that much. However, there are a couple of important developments to go along with the background which raise questions and a few concerns. Is this the second chapter for the bank crisis?
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FDIC Press Release
https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/fulton-bank-na-lancaster-pennsylvania-assumes-substantially-all-depositsRepublic First's last SEC filing
https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000834285/6c29a651-35e8-48f3-8803-6b7376b1ab7f.pdfRepublic First's last posted balance sheet
https://investors.myrepublicbank.com/financial-info/balance-sheet/default.aspxBloomberg's April 2024 report on FDIC soliciting bids
FDIC Is Approaching Potential Buyers of Republic First
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/fdic-is-said-to-approach-potential-buyers-of-republic-firstBloomberg's October 2023 report on FDIC soliciting bids
FDIC Sought Buyers for Republic First Before Investor Deal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-29/fdic-sought-buyers-for-republic-first-before-investor-dealhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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This week's big miss in US GDP raises several questions about the state of the economy. It was significant enough to immediately call into doubt the soft landing. Last year's surge now appears to have been just a short run temporary jump, meaning GDP might be joining the majority of macro data indicating much sharper and more serious weakness than was though just before the data's release.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
S&P Global April 2024 flash PMIs
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2a6d069e95b3402f85a5e44e3ff49917https://www.eurodollar.university
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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It's not just that Japan's yen is crashing, it's what a yen crash means to everyone not only in Japan. But why? All you'll hear from the mainstream and most "experts" is that every currency exchange rate movement including JPY must be somehow related to a central bank, especially the Fed. It's a myth easily debunked. When doing the debunking the real truth emerges and it's not good.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Yen Drops Beyond 158 Per Dollar as BOJ Keeps Key Rate Unchanged
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-26/yen-drops-to-fresh-34-year-low-as-boj-keeps-key-rate-unchangedTrilateral Ministerial Joint Press Statement
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2264FOMC Transcript February 1998
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19980204meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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GDP comes in the worst in two years because prices shot up again, therefore the term "stagflation" is going to be everywhere. Which prices changed actually makes a huge difference given the fact those particular prices are more likely to help the US economy get back to its depression tendencies. And on that count, we have irrefutable proof from oil, gasoline, and energy.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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Uncle Sam tried his best to buy a recovery. The sheer amount of money redistributed by the federal govt the past four years is incomprehensible. Here's the thing: the transfers didn't stop in 2021. A huge chunk of them kept going right on to today. And still it wasn't enough to stabilize an economy that is showing signs of even more weakening.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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Oil prices aren't inflationary, they're disinflationary. We are getting more proof right now as incoming data shows demand being destroyed. This is creating difficulties for the US economy on top of severe strain around the rest of the world. Several key markets are picking up the distress, too.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2a6d069e95b3402f85a5e44e3ff49917
Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report April 2024
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20240419.pdfBloomberg China Is Front and Center of Gold’s Record-Breaking Rally
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-21/china-is-front-and-center-of-gold-s-record-breaking-rallyhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The Fed's latest semi-annual report on financial risks contains a couple of important updates. First, we get a sense of where the systemic attempt to deal with the downside to the commercial real estate bubble stands. That also feeds into the most recent updates on US banks and the deteriorating credit environment. Plus, we also take a look at why the Fed's report singled-out the stock market and what that means.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report April 2024
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20240419.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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There is a tendency to conflate the behavior of consumer prices with the condition of the economy. With the current mania over recent CPIs in full bloom, fears extend into the real economy. Is it really "too hot?" Recent data from the Federal Reserve itself actually helps separate the facts from the misperceptions.
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
Beige Book April 2024
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240417.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The world is starting to get the idea that rate hikes are not all they're cracked up to be. Yet, we're forced to focus endlessly on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies. Why? The answer is really simple. More importantly, what's really going on in the economy? That answer is also pretty simple, too.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jay Powell Jackson Hole August 2023 Inflation: Progress and the Path Ahead
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20230825a.htmFOMC Transcript July 2014
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20140730meeting.pdfBen Bernanke Jan 2009 The Crisis and the Policy Response
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20090113a.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The Fed is all over the place, flip-flopping sometimes within a matter of weeks. They're confident about inflation then they're not. What's the real reason for so much back and forth, the obvious insecurity? It's the story no one really knows and what actually ties the current day with the past Great Inflation.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CSPAN William Proxmire
https://www.c-span.org/video/?322377-1/political-career-senator-william-proxmirehttps://www.c-span.org/video/?39834-1/government-waste
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4704392/sen-william-proxmire
Hutchinson v Proxmire
https://www.oyez.org/cases/1978/78-680Federal Reserve Memo Nov 6, 1973 & letter from Arthur Burns to Senator Proxmire
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/historical/burns/Burns_19731106.pdfNYT Dec 2, 1975 Proxmire Would Curtail Banks
https://www.nytimes.com/1975/12/02/archives/proxmire-would-curtail-banks.htmlFOMC Transcript July 1981
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19810707meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springUpdates from the US housing and energy sectors heavily rebuff the idea reflation. There is supposed to be resurgent demand when new data shows the opposite, including a shocking crash in one critical segment. Not only do they contradict reflation, these also expose the CPI.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Rent.com The Rent Report April 2024
https://www.rent.com/research/average-rent-price-report/https://www.eurodollar.university
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EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springUST yields are up somewhat sharply since early April, raising questions as to why that is. High on the public list of suspects is a government bond crisis for obvious Uncle Sam insanity reasons. Others point to possible reflation in higher yields. We do have a solid, historically validated answer for Treasuries, but it's written in German.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springHigher (slightly) interest rates and a couple rising commodities has brought back the reflation trade. For those to be valid, there would have to be widespread confirmation that a meaningful pickup in demand is brewing. Instead, there are huge holes including the most critical signal of them all.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Mining.com Global copper smelters less active after China’s planned output cuts
https://www.mining.com/web/global-copper-smelters-less-active-after-chinas-planned-output-cuts/https://www.eurodollar.university
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Is the Great Migration about to get worse? The answer starts in China where just the week the country already reported a sharp fall in consumer prices. CNY is down and so are government bond yields there. The Chinese also said the economy suffered a big drop in exports and then suffered a record low growth rate for lending. Banking woes, trade setbacks, further declines in growth and inflation expectations. The rest of the world is going to feel the effects.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
S&P Global Ratings
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/231127-economic-research-economic-outlook-emerging-markets-q1-2024-challenging-global-conditions-will-constrain-gr-12923458Fitch Ratings Fitch Revises Outlook on China to Negative; Affirms at 'A+'
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-revises-outlook-on-china-to-negative-affirms-at-a-09-04-2024https://www.eurodollar.university
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The economy is doing just fine according to many statistics, but according to most people it is anything but. Those aren't just idle malcontents, either. A fundamental fact of the current state of the world is that it will have to reckon for that economic pain and substantial loss. Many now merely believe that worst is behind is, but what if it is still lying just ahead?
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
FRB Philadelphia Q4 2023 Insights Report
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/2023-q4-large-bankJP Morgan Chase Q1 2024 earnings
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2024/1st-quarter/6678012b-9242-492b-acd0-1473eabade3c.pdfCitigroup Q1 2024 earnings
https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/Earnings/Q12024/2024prq1.pdfWells Fargo Q1 2024 earnings
https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/about/investor-relations/earnings/first-quarter-2024-earnings.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Yesterday's US CPI reignited the fierce debate over a possibly sticky inflation future. China just ended it by reminding the world of its stubborn deflationary present with the third largest monthly CPI drop in the last twenty years. Producer prices also decline which is a solidly disinflationary signal for China and the world regardless of the latest consumer price numbers from elsewhere.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
China's NBS Consumer prices press release
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240411_1954446.htmlChina's NBS Producer prices press release
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240411_1954447.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Another CPI comes in higher than expected. This isn't some harbinger of an impending price spiral, just the regular fluctuations in consumer prices driven largely by oil. It has stirred up inflation fears anyway in large part because it seems as if the CPI and especially the core rate is now stuck at a structurally higher rate. History cautions when making those assumptions.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springHawkish policymakers, oil prices, higher for longer all over the media. Why are banks, not just central banks, already cutting rates? Contrary to what you hear in the mainstream, policymakers aren't actually all that hawkish. More importantly, global markets are pricing more assertively for fragility not soft landing.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Goldman’s Marcus Frontruns Fed With Rate Cut on Savings Account
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-04/goldman-s-marcus-frontruns-fed-with-rate-cut-on-savings-accountBloomberg State Street Sees Half-Point Fed Rate Cut as Soon as June
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-09/state-street-sees-half-point-fed-rate-cut-as-soon-as-juneBloomberg Fed’s Kashkari Floats Possibility of No Rate Cuts This Year
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-04/fed-s-kashkari-floats-possibility-of-no-rate-cuts-this-yearBloomberg Fed’s Kashkari Sees Two Rate Cuts in 2024, Potentially Just One
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-06/fed-s-kashkari-sees-two-rate-cuts-in-2024-potentially-just-oneReuters Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/inverted-yield-curve-no-longer-reliable-recession-flag-strategists-say-2024-03-12/NFIB March 2024 report
https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/https://www.eurodollar.university
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EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springWhat if gold and oil are actually trading on the same outcome? Despite popular misconceptions, a non-economic oil shock like the one we're currently experiencing is NOT inflationary. On the contrary, history shows it will almost certainly be disinflationary because of the negative impact it has on the economy. And if that impact is negative enough, that will lead to sharply lower interest rates - the very factor driving gold to all-time highs.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg The Gold Market Hunts for Answers Behind Bullion’s Sudden Surge
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-07/the-gold-market-hunts-for-answers-behind-bullion-s-sudden-surge?fromMostRead=trueBernanke, Gertler, Stock Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1997/01/1997a_bpea_bernanke_gertler_watson_sims_friedman.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springOil is up sharply as fears over a wider conflict in the Middle East continue to rise. Quite predictably, this has raised widespread concerns over renewed "inflation." But we just did this six months ago and that example shows what we should expect today and going forward.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
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