Afleveringen
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This week, Mark Leonard joins forces with Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s director of research and US programme director, to unpick two momentous geopolitical disruptions. First, a stunning scandal emerged from a Signal group chat, where senior US officials—including the vice president, secretary of defence and CIA director—carelessly looped in the Atlantic’s editor-in-chief to discuss military strikes in Yemen. Among their plans, the chat laid bare the US administration’s disdain for Europe and schemes to extract economic advantages from allies—while exposing a shocking disregard for protocol.
Mark and Jeremy then turn their focus to Riyadh, where whispers of a US-Russia pact are surfacing. This could mean reviving Russia’s agricultural markets, securing a Black Sea ceasefire and halting assaults on energy infrastructure. But alarm bells are ringing and Ukraine might be left in the cold. Worse yet, the Trump administration seems to be drifting away from supporting European defence while cosying up to Putin. Could the US truly be forsaking its historic role as Europe’s guardian?
This podcast was recorded on 26th March.
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This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy fellow for ECFR’s Wider Europe programme and visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, to discuss the dramatic arrest of Istanbul’s popular mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu. The arrest sparked nationwide protests; together they explore whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s bold move signals a critical shift for Turkish democracy, potentially steering the country toward a less competitive system reminiscent of Russia or Iran.
Their conversation examines Turkey’s deeply polarised society, the significant role of its Kurdish minority and Erdogan’s strategic manoeuvring in a rapidly evolving global landscape, especially following Donald Trump’s re-election. As Europe’s influence over Turkey weakens, Mark and Aslı consider the broader implications for the future of Turkish politics and its increasingly strained relationship with the West.
This podcast was recorded on 24 March.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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This week, Mark Leonard hosts Tobias Gehrke, an ECFR senior policy fellow specialising in geoeconomics and economic security, and José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of ECFR’s Madrid office and expert on tech geopolitics, to explore how Europe can counter a potentially hostile Trump administration.
With trade wars looming and the US flexing its power, Mark and his guests delve into Tobias’s new policy brief, Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion. They outline which tools Europe can use—from trade tariffs and service restrictions, to targeting tech giants like Elon Musk’s Starlink and Tesla, to curbing data flows and licences for firms like BlackRock—to apply leverage over Trump’s administration. The discussion weighs the costs of deterrence, the risk of escalation into security domains like NATO, and the threat posed by tech tycoons to European democracy. Can Europe stand firm without shooting itself in the foot?
This podcast was recorded on 20th March.
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This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Kirill Shamiev, a policy fellow with ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, to dissect the outcomes and implications of the historic phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin—which, at two-and-a-half-hours, was the longest between American and Russian leaders in history.
Mark and Kirill explore the three key outcomes: a prisoner exchange of 175 individuals from each side; an agreement to cease attacks on energy infrastructure for 30 days; and a shift from informal diplomacy to official expert discussions on conflict settlement.
The conversation also delves into the contrasting post-call read-outs from the White House and the Kremlin; where Russia is projecting assertiveness, the US has adopted a more diplomatic tone. What does the phone call mean for the Ukraine conflict? And why is Europe conspicuously absent from the discussion?
This podcast was recorded on 19 March 2025.
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In this episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Adam Tooze—ECFR trustee, the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis professor of history at Columbia University, director of the university’s European Institute and author—to discuss Donald Trump’s rise through a class lens. They examine how job losses and cultural divides, as well as frustration with media, tech and government elites, are driving workers’ support for Trump. These societal shifts are disrupting US politics, promoting figures like Trump and Elon Musk who some see as defying the establishment.
Tooze calls for Europe to develop a united, stronger response to these changes. With the US distracted and China ahead in manufacturing areas such as tech and automotive, Europe needs major investments in finance, industry and technology. Tooze sees less risk in US trade disputes but warns Europe must act to stay relevant. But can Europe meet this challenge?
This podcast was recorded on 17th March.
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Donald Trump's presidency has cast a significant shadow over Europe, reshaping its varied political landscapes and policy decisions. As the continent navigates this transformative era, it also faces tests to its unity and cohesion.
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, ECFR senior policy fellow and head of the Paris office, Piotr Buras, ECFR senior policy fellow and head of the Warsaw office, Teresa Coratella, ECFR policy fellow and deputy head of the Rome office, Rafael Loss, ECFR policy fellow, José Ignacio Torreblanca, ECFR senior policy fellow and head of the Madrid office and Maria Simeonova, head of ECFR Sofia, for a special episode recorded in Prague where ECFR gathered for its annual staff retreat.
Together with Mark, this week’s guests explore how Trump 2.0 is forcing Europe to confront its vulnerabilities and rethink many assumptions which it had long taken for granted.
This podcast was recorded on March 13th
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This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin, head of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, to explore the implications of and strategic motives behind a newly announced Ukraine-US agreement amid the Russia conflict. The deal includes a 30-day ceasefire, and resumed US intelligence sharing and military aid for Ukraine. Will Russia reciprocate or escalate? Is the US fully backing Ukraine or seeking a reset with Russia? Does Russia see a chance to cement influence over Ukraine and European security?
This podcast was recorded on 12 March.
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This week Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Warsaw office to discuss the recent shifts in Europe’s defence strategy. On the weekend, Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz’s has said he would pursue discussions with France and Britain on sharing nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk is looking into the possibility of nuclear deterrence and has proposed compulsory military training for men. Are we witnessing a fundamental shift in Europe’s security posture? How do Tusk’s remarks tie into Merz’s comments? Are we seeing the end of America’s nuclear umbrella in Europe, or at least the end of its credibility?
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Fourteen years after the outbreak of civil war, Syria is at a critical juncture. Beyond its borders, regional tensions continue to shape its fate. Meanwhile, traditional global powers, particularly the US, remain largely disengaged—raising questions about the risk of inaction.
This week Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme, Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme, and Hugh Lovatt, ECFR senior policy fellow. The team has just returned from a research trip to Damascus, where they met with Syria’s new government officials and civil society members. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the rise of Ahmed al-Sharaa, what is the mood in the country? How has governance evolved under the new leadership, and what challenges persist? What role can—and should—Europe play in shaping Syria’s post-war reality? And do Syria’s new politics offer an opportunity for Europe to counter Russian influence?
Bookshelf:
Kleptopia: How Dirty Money is Conquering the World by Tom Burgis
Movies: The Swimmers, No Other Land, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Kingdoms of Faith A New History of Islamic Spain by Brian A. Catlos
This podcast was recorded on March 4th 2025
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Europeans face major challenges in maintaining transatlantic relations amid Trump’s withdrawal of US support for Ukraine; now ECFR has declared a policy emergency. Over the next month, Mark Leonard will host a 15-minute long emergency podcast ECFR’s Emergency Room every Monday and Wednesday, alongside our regular Friday episodes.
To kick things off, Mark Leonard welcomes Nicu Popescu, ECFR distinguished policy fellow, to discuss the war effort and Europe's role in supporting Kyiv after the US paused all aid shipments to Ukraine. As uncertainty looms, European nations face mounting pressure to step up their support. What kind of aid has the US halted, and how will this impact Ukraine’s ability to defend itself on the battlefield? Can mediation help Europeans engage with Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky? And what, in practical terms, what can Europeans realistically do?
This podcast was recorded on March 5th 2025
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The final episode of Searching for Deutschland—a special crossover with the World in 30 Minutes—sees experts from Berlin, London, Paris and Warsaw break down the result of Germany’s federal election and discuss what comes next. Coalition negotiations are underway; Germany's shifting political dynamics will shape the country's future while carrying significant implications for Europe.
This week Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, ECFR editorial director and senior policy fellow; Jana Puglierin, ECFR’s Berlin office head and senior policy fellow; Marie Dumoulin, director of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme; and Piotr Buras, ECFR’s Warsaw office head and senior policy fellow, to discuss the results of Germany’s federal election. What kind of coalition is likely to emerge, and how stable will it be? How are Paris and Warsaw receiving the election result? Could Germany’s change in government lead to a closer Franco-German and Polish-German relationship? And what does the likelihood of Friedrich Merz as the next chancellor mean for the future of transatlantic ties?
Bookshelf:
Worte, die die Welt beherrschen by Jörg Lau
The Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century by Sergei Goryev and Daniel Treisman
Brothers and Ghosts by Khuê Pham
Confidence Man: The Making of Donald Trump and The Breaking of America by Maggie Haberman
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Hal Brands argues that, while American power is often seen as dominating the modern era, it is in fact part of a long and violent Eurasian century. From world war one to today's geopolitical tensions involving the US and the authoritarian axis of China, Iran and Russia, the Eurasian landmass has consistently shaped global conflict.
This week Mark Leonard welcomes Hal Brands, the Henry Kissinger distinguished professor at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, to discuss his new book, The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World. What inspired him to write it? How is the second Eurasian century, driven by the authoritarian axis of Russia, China, and Iran, emerging? And how does Donald Trump change the equation between liberal powers and the authoritarian Eurasian heartland?
Bookshelf:
The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World by Hal Brands
By More Than Providence by Michael J. Green
This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2025
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Last week, US president Donald Trump shocked Europeans when he announced the start of peace talks on the war in Ukraine, following a call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Trump’s announcement fuelled fears that peace talks could begin without Ukrainians or Europeans at the table, and result in key concessions to Moscow.
In this episode, recorded live from the Munich Security Conference, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Ulrike Franke, distinguished policy fellow Camille Grand, senior policy fellow and director of ECFR’s Asia programme Janka Oertel, and senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Berlin office Jana Puglierin. Together, they unpack this year's conference and discuss the state of transatlantic relations and the condition of European security. What do Trump’s plans for peace talks entail for Ukraine? How can Europe secure a role in the negotiations? And what must Europeans do to provide solid security guarantees and secure the continent’s future?
Bookshelf
Ende der China-Illusion by Janka Oertel
Transatlantic twilight: European public opinion and the long shadow of Trump by Jana Puglierin, Arturo Varvelli and Pawel Zerka
The Plot against America by Philip Roth
Es werden schöne Tage kommen by Zach Williams
Die Rückkehr des Krieges by Franz-Stefan Gady
The Age of Unpeace by Mark Leonard
This podcast was recorded during the Munich Security Conference (14-16 February 2024)
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As a committed NATO ally and EU partner, Norway is deeply embedded in Western security structures and stands firmly with Ukraine against Russian aggression. But its ‘Norwegian model’ of foreign policy—engaging in dialogue with actors and countries whose values and interests contradict its own—is unique. This week Mark Leonard welcomes Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik, Norway’s deputy foreign minister and member of the Norwegian Labour Party, to discuss the country’s distinct approach to diplomacy and international engagement. What defines this method? How does it serve Norway in a world of geopolitical fracture and crises? How does Norway benefit from talking to almost everyone—and what is the risk of not having these conservations?
This podcast was recorded on January 28 2025
Bookshelf
The Norwegian way: Why Oslo talks with everyone and still believes in multilateralism by Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik
The Art of Diplomacy: How American Negotiators Reached Historic Agreements that Changed the World by Stuart Eisenstadt
The Last Colony: A Tale of Exile, Justice and Britain's Colonial Legacy by Philip Sands
Non-Zero: The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright
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Less than two weeks into his second term and President Donald Trump is already dominating global headlines. From reigniting trade war threats and doubling down on his ambitions to acquire Greenland, to withdrawing from multilateral agreements and demanding that NATO allies allocate 5% of their GDP to defence—his administration is swiftly attempting to reshape global dynamics. Meanwhile, Trump’s ally Elon Musk is stirring political controversy and further unsettling European leaders.
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Lons, deputy head of ECFR’s Paris office, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, deputy head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin office, José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of ECFR’s Madrid office and Arturo Varvelli, head of ECFR’s Rome office, to discuss how European capitals are responding to Trump’s dramatic return to the White House. Which major issues are they trying to deal with? And how are Europeans and the EU preparing for all the disruption to come?
Bookshelf:
Geopolitics and Democracy: The Western Liberal Order from Foundation to Fracture by Peter Trubowitz and Brian Burgoon
Orbital by Samatha Harvey
Realpolitik How to face the global disorder by Giampiero Massolo
The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021 by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser
Cocktail sugar : et autres nouvelles de Corée by Kim Ae-ran, Go Eun-ju, Jeon Gyeong-nin, Eun Hee-kyung, Oh Jung-hi, Han Kang, Park Chan-Soon, Pak Wan-So
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ECFR is live from the WEF 2025 in Davos, where top business leaders are gathered to discuss the state of the world. After Donald Trump’s inauguration just three days ago, attendees eagerly await the absent US president's video address on Thursday afternoon.
This week Mark Leonard welcomes Carl Bildt, co-chair of ECFR’s council and former prime minister and foreign minister of Sweden, and Arancha González, dean of the Paris School of International Affairs at Science Po and former foreign minister of Spain, to discuss their insights from public conversations and private meetings at this year’s WEF. What is most striking about the 2025 edition? How is the mood around the global economy? And does Trump’s return mean for the threat of tariffs and war in Ukraine?
Bookshelf:
Open but Secure: Europe’s Path to Strategic Interdependence by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with ECFR
This podcast was recorded on January 23rd 2025
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With just five weeks remaining until the German federal election, Friedrich Merz's CDU is leading in the polls. But significant shifts in geopolitics—and opinion—can occur in weeks and days: and this election will take place in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s inauguration and amid the stagnation of the Franco-German engine. Now, recognising the importance of German leadership in Europe, Searching for Deutschland explores the foreign policy dimensions of Germany’s electoral campaign.
This week Mark Leonard welcomes editorial director and senior policy fellow Jeremy Cliffe, and ECFR’s Berlin office head and senior policy fellow Jana Puglierin, to discuss their new podcast, and Merz’s foreign and domestic policies. What exactly is the “Merz Doctrine”? How might Merz deal with the second Trump administration? And what are his views on Russia and Ukraine?
The podcast was recorded on January 16th 2025
Bookshelf:
The Divider Trump in the White House, 2017-2021by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser
Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections by Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard
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On 1 January, Poland assumed presidency of the EU Council. But it steps into the spotlight during a period of seismic geopolitical shifts. With the war in Ukraine raging and Donald Trump’s imminent return to power, Poland faces immense pressure to lead while navigating Europe’s complex security landscape.
This week Mark Leonard welcomes Joanna Bekker, deputy managing director at leading Polish think-tank Polityka Insight, Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, deputy head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, to discuss Poland’s presidency of the EU Council. What does its motto of “security” mean for Europe in practice? Will the upcoming Polish presidential election impact its direction? And, with France and Germany missing in action, can Poland seize the moment to assume greater leadership in Europe?
Bookshelf:
Smart Brevity: The Power of Saying More with Less by Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen, and Roy Schwartz
Kaput: The End of the German Miracle by Wolfgang Münchau
Sophie’s World by Jostein Gaarder
This podcast was recorded on 8 January 2025
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2024 was a year of intense geopolitical shifts and growing uncertainty. But one thing remains consistent: ECFR’s ever-popular predictions podcast. In our first outing for 2025, Mark Leonard and ECFR research director Jeremy Shapiro team up to reflect on the accuracy of last year’s predictions—and, with crystal balls in hand, try to decipher which forces will shape 2025. Is this the year they finally achieve 10/10?
Let us know if you think they missed something! Write your own predictions in to Mark via [email protected].
Bookshelf:
A Nasty Little War: The West's Fight to Reverse the Russian Revolution by Anna Reid
Regime Change: Toward a Postliberal Future by Patrick J. Deneen
2024: The year we embrace predictable surprise by Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro
This podcast was recorded on 27 December 2024
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As Donald Trump’s return to the presidency looms, European leaders are intensifying their diplomatic efforts. Emmanuel Macron has met with Donald Tusk to discuss European troop deployments, while a high-stakes meeting in Brussels with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO secretary general Mark Rutte and EU leaders included discussions on potential peacekeeping missions. Europe seems determined to secure Ukraine’s future, offer it meaningful security guarantees, and maintain regional stability.
This week Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, distinguished policy fellow at ECFR and former assistant secretary general for defence investment at NATO, Jana Kobsova, visiting fellow at ECFR and foreign policy advisor to Slovak president Zuzana Caputová, and Nicu Popescu, former Moldova foreign minister and distinguished policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss the ongoing negotiations. Which different scenarios are being discussed? What stage are these discussions at? Can Europeans help to shore up Ukraine at this critical stage—and, crucially, can the EU provide it with long-term security guarantees?
Bookshelf:
The Anatomy of a Moment: Thirty-Five Minutes in History and Imagination by Javier Cercas
Faustian Bargain: The Soviet-German Partnership and the Origins of the Second World War by Ian Ona Johnson
Talks with T. G. Masaryk by Karel Čapek
How to Talk About Books You Haven't Read by Pierre Bayard
This podcast was recorded on 18 December 2024
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