Afleveringen
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Santorini Greece Earthquake Crisis - February 2025
Executive Summary:
Santorini, Greece, a major tourist destination, is experiencing a significant seismic swarm beginning in late January 2025. Thousands of earthquakes, some exceeding magnitude 5, have prompted a state of emergency, mass evacuations, and growing concerns about the upcoming tourist season. While scientists do not believe a volcanic eruption is imminent and larger earthquakes are not assured, the unusual nature of the swarm and the potential for damage are causing widespread anxiety and economic disruption. The crisis has exposed infrastructure vulnerabilities and sparked debate about investment in the island's resilience.
Key Themes and Information:
Seismic Activity:A significant earthquake swarm began around January 26, 2025, with thousands of tremors affecting Santorini and nearby islands like Amorgos.The strongest earthquake recorded was a magnitude 5.2."It's estimated that about 12,000 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 1 have been registered in the area near Santorini and Amorgos since Jan. 26"The epicenter of the earthquakes appeared to be moving northward.The European-Mediterranean Seismological Center described the swarm as "very unusual," noting that the magnitude and rate of earthquakes have been increasing, rather than decreasing as typically expected after a large quake.Scientists have installed underwater seismographs to better understand the earthquake activity.While some small events have been recorded below Santorini, they are "pretty sparse, and they mostly predate this swarm."The swarm began with small earthquakes. Starting on February 1, the seismicity started to intensify, broaden, and move slightly towards the northeast.Focal mechanisms are largely normal-type, striking NE-SW."the seismicity may be shallowing as it migrates northeastward. This kind of migration would be consistent with the movement of euids through the crust, which remains the most likely explanation for what is going on.""The most likely situation is that the swarm will settle down without triggering a large earthquake. However, the risk is certainly elevated above its normal level.""The NE-trending Ios Fault Zone appears to be a key factor in this seismic swarm. The concentration of seismicity at 10–15 km depth aligns well with the fault’s downward extension. One possible explanation is that fluids—potentially hot—are triggering seismic activity."State of Emergency and Response:A state of emergency was declared on Santorini and later Amorgos."Santorini is under a state of emergency until March 3 to "address the emergency"Rescue teams have been deployed to Santorini.Schools were closed, and public events were canceled.Access to coastal areas and clifftop viewpoints was restricted due to landslide risks.The Greek government responded positively to proposals to support the existing workforce on the island and those looking to work during the season.Aid was expedited by the declaration of a state of emergency.Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visited the island to assess the situation and urge calm."We hope this phenomenon ends quickly and the island fully returns to its normal pace," Mitsotakis said. -
"Gulf of America" Controversy
Subject: Review of the "Gulf of America" naming dispute and related implications.
Meteorology Matters summarizes the controversy surrounding the potential renaming of the "Gulf of Mexico" to the "Gulf of America" by the United States government, specifically under the direction of President Trump. The change, initiated via executive order, has sparked international debate, particularly with Mexico, and raises significant practical and political implications for mapping, weather forecasting, and international relations. Mexico is considering legal action, and agencies like NOAA are struggling to implement the change while maintaining international consistency and relevance.
Key Themes & Information:
The Name Change Initiative:President Trump issued a decree/executive order to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the "Gulf of America." The impetus for this change is not explicitly stated, but Time refers to a Trump declaration that he "would change the Gulf's name."The NOAA is in the process of implementing the Executive Order. Susan Buchanan, a National Weather Service spokesperson, said that the change would affect all of the agency's weather products, "Work is underway to update naming conventions as quickly as possible on nautical charts, online maps, weather products, websites and other materials across NOAA."Mexican Opposition and Potential Legal Action:The Mexican government, under President Claudia Sheinbaum, strongly opposes the name change, arguing that the name "Gulf of Mexico" dates back to 1607 and is internationally recognized by the United Nations.Sheinbaum indicated that Mexico sent a letter to Google stating it was "wrong" and that "the entire Gulf of Mexico cannot be called the Gulf of America."Mexico is considering a civil lawsuit against Google for adopting the "Gulf of America" name on its maps, especially as it is displayed to users within the United States. Sheinbaum stated her government "wouldn’t rule out filing a civil lawsuit against Google if it… decided to call the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States the ‘Gulf of America.’"Geopolitical & Historical Context:Sheinbaum used historical context to subtly criticize Trump. She referred to the constitution of Apatzingán, in which the North American territory was previously identified as "Mexican America".The dispute highlights potential clashes over geographic naming conventions and their political significance, especially concerning shared borders and resources. The Time article also notes a similar issue with the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo border river.Implementation Challenges:NOAA faces challenges in implementing the name change in weather forecasts, especially for areas outside the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. The Axios article states, "The Hurricane Center hasn't determined yet how it will handle its forecasts outside the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone while being consistent with Trump's executive order."Google's approach has been to adapt the displayed name based on the user's location, showing "Gulf of America" in the U.S. and "Gulf of Mexico" in Mexico, or a combination elsewhere. As the Time article states, "If the user is in the United States, the body of water appeared as Gulf of America. If the user was physically in Mexico, it would appear as the Gulf of Mexico. In many other countries across the world it appears as ‘Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America).’" -
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NOAA Restrictions and Concerns
Subject: Recent Restrictions Imposed on NOAA Scientists and Resulting Concerns
meteorology Matters details new restrictions imposed on scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the Trump administration, sparking considerable concern within the agency and among international partners. These restrictions include increased oversight of communications with foreign nationals, additional administrative burdens, and anticipated budget and staffing cuts. These measures are perceived as part of a broader effort to deprioritize climate crisis efforts and potentially privatize parts of NOAA. The changes raise alarms about the potential impact on weather forecasting accuracy, international scientific collaboration, and the availability of crucial climate data.
Key Themes and Ideas:
Increased Restrictions on International Communication and Collaboration:NOAA is implementing new oversight of scientists' email and "virtual meetings" with foreign nationals.All "international engagements" require documentation and approval by a Trump political appointee.One NOAA Research email stated staff now need to submit any "international engagement" for approval, including travel, face-to-face meetings or gatherings of international organizations. As for whether that includes emails with colleagues of different nationalities, the guidance said: “Not at this time.”The National Marine Fisheries Service has told staff to stop all contact with foreign nationals.These restrictions are seen as creating an "onerous" administrative burden, especially for the National Weather Service (NWS).Concerns About a "Crackdown on Climate" and Politicization of Science:A senior NOAA scientist stated, "My expectation is that it’s going to be a crackdown on climate. People are just somewhere between disturbed and terrified."Fears stem from previous incidents of scientists being sidelined or muted during Trump's first term.Elon Musk’s “department of government efficiency” (Doge), placed the head of Noaa’s human resources team on administrative leave and initiated an agency-wide purge of activities related to diversity, equity and inclusion.Budget and Staffing Cuts Looming:Employees have reportedly been told to expect a 50% reduction in staff and budget cuts of 30%.Project 2025 architect Russell Vought proposed a 38% budget cut for Noaa to “to curb excessive mission creep in key agencies, halt steadily increasing climate extremism within the department, and eliminate the prioritization of woke agendas”."Hundreds" of NOAA staff have reportedly accepted federal buyouts.There are reported sweeping efforts to shrink the federal workforce with repeated requests for volunteers who want to resign.Potential Impact on Weather Forecasting and Climate Science:The restrictions and cuts could "hamper the ability of the US to maintain a functioning public weather service."Reduced international collaboration could undermine the ability to "understand and combat" the climate crisis, according to a climate scientist at the EU's Copernicus agency. "The climate crisis knows no boundaries, and halting international scientific collaboration can only undermine our ability to understand and combat it.” -
Red States Hurt the Most by the Trump Administration's Climate Funding Freeze (February 2025)
Executive Summary:
President Trump's executive order freezing climate-related funding, particularly from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, is causing widespread disruption and uncertainty. While the legality of the freeze is being challenged in court, it has led to project delays, job losses, and financial strain on states, nonprofits, and private companies. Surprisingly, Republican-leaning states and districts stand to lose the most economically from this freeze, as they are the primary beneficiaries of clean energy investments spurred by the IRA. The situation has created a complex political dynamic, with some Republicans quietly attempting to protect projects in their districts while publicly supporting the administration's agenda.
Key Themes and Ideas:
Immediate Disruption and Confusion: The executive order has caused immediate chaos, delaying projects and forcing organizations to furlough or fire staff. As Chuck Morse, executive director of Thrive New Orleans, stated: "The funding freeze 'is going to be devastating for us — we may not survive this'... 'We can't make our payroll... We're going to have to shut down our programs and have a lot less impact. … It's hurting the people we pledged to serve.'" This highlights the real-world impact on communities and organizations reliant on the funding.Republican States Hardest Hit: A key finding is that Republican districts are the primary beneficiaries of clean energy investments stimulated by the IRA. According to the New York Times, "Roughly 80 percent of those investments are in Republican congressional districts, where they are creating a once-in-a-generation manufacturing boom." This creates a difficult political situation for Republicans who must balance party loyalty with the economic interests of their constituents.Economic Impact: The funding freeze threatens a clean energy manufacturing boom. BloombergNEF predicts that "more than half" of the nearly $30 billion in clean technology factories scheduled to come online in 2025 will face delays or cancellations. This could lead to job losses and hinder the growth of the clean energy sector.Investor Uncertainty: The possibility of repealing or modifying federal loans and tax incentives from the IRA is making investors nervous and causing companies to reevaluate their plans. "Many manufacturers now face 'significant political uncertainty' on top of that, as companies wonder whether the Trump administration will repeal or modify federal loans and tax incentives," according to Antoine Vagneur-Jones of BloombergNEF.Important Facts and Figures:
$32 billion: Estimated amount of unspent IRA funding vulnerable to being frozen (Washington Post).$20.5 billion: Amount of the unspent money from the EPA (Washington Post).80%: Approximate percentage of clean energy manufacturing investments flowing to Republican congressional districts (New York Times).$165.8 billion: Total planned investments by private companies chasing IRA tax breaks (New York Times).$30 billion: Value of clean technology factories scheduled to come online in 2025, more than half predicted to face delays or cancellations (New York Times, citing BloombergNEF).168: Number of renewable energy projects whose permitting was paused by the Army Corps of Engineers (New York Times). -
State of the Climate - 2024 and Beyond
2024 is confirmed as the hottest year on record, surpassing 2023, and marking a decade of unprecedented heat. This has triggered extreme weather events globally and heightened concerns about the potential for earlier-than-expected breaches of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C warming threshold. Scientists are investigating factors beyond fossil fuel emissions and El Niño, such as aerosol reductions from shipping regulations and decreased cloud cover, to fully explain the surge in temperatures. While international agreements and initiatives are in place, urgent and accelerated climate action is imperative to mitigate future warming and adapt to its impacts.
Key Themes and Ideas:
Record-Breaking Temperatures:2024 is set to be the warmest year on record, continuing a trend of escalating temperatures: "The year 2024 is set to be the warmest on record, capping a decade of unprecedented heat fuelled by human activities." (UN News)The past decade has seen the warmest years on record. "The past 10 years have been the warmest 10 years since record-keeping began." (NPR)Average global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. (Al Jazeera)Earth experienced its warmest day ever on July 22, 2024. (Al Jazeera)January 2024 was the warmest January on record, with an average surface air temperature of 13.14˚C. (Al Jazeera)Exceedance of Paris Agreement Thresholds:There is growing concern that long-term warming may exceed the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit sooner than expected. "Recent warming has sparked debate about whether the world might exceed the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement limit earlier than previously estimated." (Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold)Twelve consecutive months with temperatures at least 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels raises alarms, although experts note this doesn't automatically mean the long-term goal has been exceeded.Analysis suggests that exceeding 1.5°C for 12 consecutive months indicates the Paris Agreement threshold is likely to have already been crossed. "Hence, in CMIP6 simulations, 12 consecutive months above 1.5 °C indicates that the Paris Agreement threshold is likely to have already been crossed" (Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold)Even exceeding the threshold in one year doesn't signal complete failure. Temperatures need to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius consistently, calculated over a 20-year average. "Passing that threshold in one year doesn't mean countries have failed, however. Temperatures would need to consistently breach 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to scientists, calculated over a 20-year average." (NPR)Extreme Weather Events:Rising temperatures are linked to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events: "Climate change also intensified 26 of the 29 weather events studied by World Weather Attribution that killed at least 3700 people and displaced millions." (UN News)Examples of extreme events include deadly floods, devastating wildfires, early heatwaves, and catastrophic hurricanes. (Al Jazeera)Europe could see millions of deaths from extreme heat by the end of the century if carbon pollution is not reduced and adaptation measures aren't implemented. "Extreme temperatures — mostly heat — are projected to kill as many as 2.3 million people in Europe by the end of the century unless countries get better at reducing carbon pollution and adapting to hotter conditions, a new study says." (TIME) -
Future of FEMA
Subject: Potential Restructuring or Elimination of FEMA and State Preparedness
Summary: Meteorology Matters examines the future of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in light of increasing disaster frequency and severity due to climate change. One article explores the ability of states to manage disasters without FEMA, highlighting the agency's crucial role in coordinating resources and providing financial aid. The second article details a political move by the Trump administration to potentially dismantle or significantly alter FEMA, sparking concerns about disaster relief and response capabilities.
Key Themes and Ideas:
The Critical Role of FEMA:FEMA coordinates federal resources, provides financial assistance, and offers logistical support during disasters. This includes coordinating rescue operations, restoring power, delivering supplies, and managing the National Flood Insurance Program.FEMA's assistance is triggered after a state requests an emergency declaration and demonstrates the disaster exceeds their capacity.The article "If FEMA didn't exist..." emphasizes that FEMA "pools federal resources to allow states to recover faster from expensive disasters."Without FEMA, states, particularly smaller, rural, or less wealthy ones, would struggle significantly to manage disaster response and recovery. Lynn Budd, director of the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security, stated, "States don’t have that capability built to handle a disaster every single year."The absence of FEMA could lead to uneven recovery, with wealthier areas recovering faster and poorer areas facing prolonged hardship.The agency also manages the National Flood Insurance Program, offers disaster preparedness training and helps states develop response plans to improve their overall response systems. -
The Tempest Stela and Bronze Age Chronology
Subject: Analysis of the "Tempest Stela" and its potential impact on Bronze Age chronology.
Executive Summary:
A new interpretation of the "Tempest Stela," a 3,500-year-old Egyptian stone block, suggests it may be the world's oldest weather report, describing severe weather events potentially linked to the volcanic eruption at Thera (Santorini). This connection, if valid, could revise the dating of the reign of Pharaoh Ahmose, pushing it back by 30-50 years. This shift would have significant ramifications for the established chronology of the ancient Near East and Eastern Mediterranean, potentially resolving discrepancies between archaeological evidence and radiocarbon dating and offering new insights into the rise and fall of Bronze Age empires.
Key Themes and Ideas:
The Tempest Stela as a Weather Report: The inscription on the stela, previously interpreted by some as metaphorical, is now argued to be a literal account of extreme weather events. The inscription describes "rain, darkness and ‘the sky being in storm without cessation, louder than the cries of the masses.’" Further details include "a tempest of rain," and "bodies floating down the Nile like ‘skiffs of papyrus.’"Connection to the Thera Eruption: Researchers believe the weather patterns described on the stela could be the result of the massive volcanic eruption at Thera. This eruption, which occurred in the Mediterranean, would have had widespread climatological effects, including in Egypt. According to Marina Baldi, a scientist in climatology and meteorology, "A modification in the atmospheric circulation after the eruption could have driven a change in the precipitation regime of the region. Therefore the episode in the Tempest Stela could be a consequence of these climatological changes."Revised Chronology of Ahmose's Reign: If the stela does describe the aftermath of the Thera eruption, the dating of Ahmose’s reign, currently estimated at around 1550 B.C., could be pushed back 30-50 years earlier. As Nadine Moeller, assistant professor of Egyptian archaeology notes, "This is important to scholars of the ancient Near East and eastern Mediterranean, generally because the chronology that archaeologists use is based on the lists of Egyptian pharaohs, and this new information could adjust those dates."Impact on Bronze Age History: A revised dating of Ahmose's reign has the potential to realign the timeline of other important events in the ancient Near East, such as the fall of the Canaanites and the collapse of the Babylonian Empire. David Schloen, associate professor in the Oriental Institute, argues that "This new information would provide a better understanding of the role of the environment in the development and destruction of empires in the ancient Middle East." The eruption and resulting tsunami could have weakened the Hyksos rulers of Egypt and disrupted trade, contributing to the fall of the Babylonian Empire.Resolution of Dating Discrepancies: Radiocarbon dating of an olive tree buried under volcanic residue placed the Thera eruption at 1621-1605 B.C.Conclusion:
The interpretation of the Tempest Stela as a record of the Thera eruption's impact presents a compelling argument for revising the chronology of the Bronze Age Near East. While further research is needed, this new perspective has the potential to significantly alter our understanding of this crucial period in human history.
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DOGE Scrutinizes NOAA
Date: February 10, 2025
Subject: Review of the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) actions and potential impacts on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Executive Summary:
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, is actively scrutinizing and gaining access to NOAA's IT systems. This has raised significant concerns about potential budget and staff cuts, the loss or damage of vital climate and weather data, impacts on NOAA's ability to provide critical services (like weather forecasting and hurricane tracking), and the removal of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) related materials. The situation is described as a "hostile corporate takeover" by some observers and is linked to Project 2025, a conservative plan to dismantle and downsize NOAA. These actions are generating strong opposition from Democratic lawmakers and concerns from former NOAA officials and related organizations.
Key Themes and Information:
DOGE Access and Actions:DOGE has gained access to NOAA's IT systems, raising concerns about the security of sensitive data. At least one member of DOGE was requested access.DOGE staffers reportedly "blew through security" and entered NOAA headquarters. As Andrew Rosenberg noted, "They apparently just sort of walked past security and said: ‘Get out of my way,’ and they’re looking for access for the IT systems, as they have in other agencies."The DOGE is reportedly looking for anything tied to DEI and ordering the removal of DEI-related materials from bulletin boards, websites, and internal communications. Employee resource groups and support spaces have also been taken down.DOGE employee Nikhil Rajpal was given edit access to NOAA's documents, reportedly following an order from acting Secretary of Commerce Jeremy Pelter.The National Marine Fisheries Service has been ordered to halt "ALL INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENTS."Personnel Changes and Potential Impacts:NOAA is preparing for potential layoffs and budget cuts. The agency has been told to expect to lose half of its employees and prepare for a 30% budget cut, according to former NOAA officials.A NOAA employee who led diversity and inclusion efforts was placed on administrative leave.There are concerns that NOAA's "irreplaceable climate and weather data could be damaged or lost."Impact on NOAA's Mission and Services:Concerns that cuts to NOAA could negatively impact its ability to provide critical services, including weather forecasts and warnings for severe weather events like hurricanes, wildfires, and tornadoes. As Jennifer Brady of Climate Central notes, "NOAA is a vital piece of our communication strategy...Their data is vetted, it's verified. So, we know we can use it and trust it in our reports."The Union of Concerned Scientists' Juan Declet-Barreto describes the situation as "a hostile corporate takeover of a government agency that provides a suite of services to the public to protect lives and to protect property."There is a fear that privatizing weather forecasts could put more Americans at risk, especially if access to this information becomes a paid service.Project 2025 Connection:DOGE's actions are linked to Project 2025, a conservative plan that advocates for breaking up and downsizing NOAA, deeming it "one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry and, as such, is harmful to future U.S. prosperity." -
Environmental Impacts of Satellite Re-entry
Executive Summary:
Meteorology Matters synthesizes information from five sources regarding the growing concern over the environmental impact of satellites burning up in the atmosphere upon re-entry. Driven by the increasing number of satellites, particularly mega-constellations like Starlink, this process releases metallic particles into the mesosphere and stratosphere, potentially affecting ozone depletion and climate. While research is ongoing, studies indicate a significant increase in stratospheric aluminum levels and raise concerns about the long-term consequences of this "satellite ash."
Key Themes and Ideas:
The Rise of Satellite Constellations and Increased Re-entries:The number of satellites in orbit has increased dramatically in recent years, and is expected to continue growing exponentially. The MIT Technology Review article notes, "Some 15 years ago, barely a thousand satellites orbited our planet. Now the number has risen to about 10,000, and with the rise of satellite constellations like Starlink, another tenfold increase is forecast by the end of this decade."This growth leads to a corresponding increase in satellite re-entries as these satellites reach the end of their operational lives. The same article states that 2024 had already seen "950 satellite reentries" by late November."Almost 20 percent of all satellites ever launched have re-entered Earth’s atmosphere in the last half-decade, burning up in superfast, superhot blazes," according to the New York Times article.The Problem of Satellite Ash:When satellites re-enter the atmosphere, they burn up, releasing metallic particles, primarily aluminum, into the atmosphere. This is described as "satellite ash."The MIT Technology Review article emphasizes that this ash "can harm the atmosphere and potentially alter the climate."The PNAS paper provides evidence: "Measurements show that about 10% of the aerosol particles in the stratosphere contain aluminum and other metals that originated from the 'burn-up' of satellites and rocket stages during reentry." It also notes that planned increases in satellite numbers "could cause up to half of stratospheric sulfuric acid particles to contain metals from reentry."Atmospheric Impact & Ozone Depletion:The primary concern revolves around the potential impact on the ozone layer. "The long-term accumulation of aluminum oxides from reentering satellites can cause significant ozone depletion" (Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in th.pdf).The PNAS paper notes the lack of definite implications yet identified but raises the possibility of effects on "the nucleation of ice or nitric acid trihydrate (NAT)," which could impact polar stratospheric clouds.The "Potential Ozone Depletion" source determined the 2022 level of aluminum from satellite reentry to be a "29.5% increase of aluminum in the atmosphere above the natural level, resulting in around 17 metric tons of aluminum oxides injected into the mesosphere."Composition of the Ash & Stratospheric Aerosol Changes:Research indicates that the metallic content of stratospheric aerosol particles is changing due to satellite re-entry. The PNAS paper found "over 20 elements from reentry were detected and were present in ratios consistent with alloys used in spacecraft."Specific metals identified include lithium, aluminum, copper, niobium, silver, and hafnium. The presence of these metals can be linked to specific components -
FEMA TSA Hotels https://www.femaemergencyhotels.com/
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Meteorology Matters summarizes the ongoing recovery efforts in Western North Carolina and Florida following Tropical Storm Helene. The storm has caused widespread displacement, economic hardship, and infrastructure damage, requiring extensive intervention from FEMA, state, and local agencies, as well as volunteer organizations. The recovery process is complex, with challenges including housing shortages, bureaucratic hurdles, and financial burdens on individuals and utility customers.
Key Themes and Information:
1. Housing Crisis and FEMA Transitional Sheltering Assistance (TSA):
WNC Exodus from Hotels: Thousands of individuals and families displaced by Helene have left FEMA-funded hotel accommodations in Western North Carolina. "In early January, the agency reported that over 5,700 households had been in the program at the beginning of 2025, but by Jan. 16 around 3,000 of those households had left the program." As of February 4th, only 762 households remained in the program in the region.Buncombe County Impact: A significant portion of those remaining in the TSA program are in Buncombe County (585 households). A number of these were deemed ineligible for continued assistance.Rental Assistance Increase: FEMA rental assistance has increased, suggesting some are moving into more permanent housing: "FEMA Representative Bob Spence noted that while the number of households utilizing the program has dropped, rental assistance from FEMA 'has gone up,' indicating that many are moving into more permanent housing solutions after Helene." However, the demand for affordable housing remains a critical issue.Eligibility Challenges and Ineligibility Reasons: Eligibility for TSA depends on FEMA inspections determining housing uninhabitability due to storm damage. Reasons for ineligibility include no eligible damage to the home, the home being habitable, inability to reach the survivor for inspection, missed inspections, withdrawal from the program, or being unhoused before the disaster. Some people avoided contacting FEMA because they knew they shouldn't be in the hotel anymore.Individual Stories of Displacement: The article highlights stories of individuals like Kevin Moreland and Randy Billiot, illustrating the difficulties people face in finding suitable housing. Moreland's criminal background presents a significant barrier, while Billiot's health issues and eviction exacerbate his vulnerability. "'Some people got moved into a house. Some people into the hospital and some onto the street, you know?' Moreland said."TSA Program Timeline: The TSA program was extended through May 26th at the request of Gov. Josh Stein.2. Financial Burden and Utility Rate Hikes in Florida:
Increased Electricity Costs: Customers of Duke Energy and Tampa Electric in Florida will face significant increases in their monthly bills to cover the costs of hurricane recovery. Duke Energy customers will see around a $32 increase (offset by a temporary $10 seasonal adjustment), and Tampa Electric customers will see around a $20 increase for 1,000 kilowatt-hours of usage.Regulator Concerns: Utility regulators expressed concerns about the rising costs for residents and the increasing frequency of devastating storms. -
Impending Winter Storms - Midwest and Northeast (February 2025)
Executive Summary:
The Midwest and Northeast of the United States are bracing for a series of five winter storms expected to deliver significant snowfall and ice over a two-week period starting in early February 2025. These storms, driven by a persistent jet stream, could bring more snow than the regions have experienced in the past two winters combined, potentially leading to hazardous travel conditions, school closures, and power outages. The Washington Post article notes that "Snowfall has been below average so far this season across many parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. That may not be the case in a week from now."
Key Themes and Forecast Details:
Jet Stream Influence: The jet stream is identified as the primary driver of these storms. Both sources mention the jet stream's role in funneling storms across the northern US. CNN states: "The storms are being driven by the jet stream, essentially a river of air in the atmosphere that storms flow through." and the Washington Post notes that "A powerful jet stream, or ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere upon which storms track, will fuel several winter storms next week.".Significant Snowfall Potential: The articles forecast substantial snowfall, with some areas potentially receiving double-digit snowfall amounts in a single storm. The CNN article states that "Boston could be buried by a foot of snow Saturday night and Sunday, which would be more snow than fell all of last winter."Icing Concerns: In addition to snow, freezing rain and sleet are expected, particularly south of Interstate 80, creating hazardous conditions. The Washington Post states "Freezing rain and sleet will be a big part of the weekend storm, especially south of Interstate 80 from Ohio through New Jersey, from late Saturday into early Sunday." The CNN article notes "A mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow will spread over Pennsylvania by Saturday evening. The same messy mix will spread through New Jersey, New York City and Long Island shortly after."Affected Areas:Snow: A corridor from central Minnesota through northern Michigan, central portions of New York, southern Maine, and southern New England (including Boston) is expected to receive significant snowfall. -
Alt National Park Service & the Political Climate
Date: Feb 7, 2024
Subject: Emergence and Activities of the Alt National Park Service in a Politically Charged Environment
Executive Summary:
Radiology mattersexamines the Alt National Park Service (AltNPS), focusing on its origins, motivations, activities, and the broader political context in which it operates. The AltNPS, initially formed in 2017 in response to perceived threats to environmental protection under the Trump administration, has re-emerged amidst concerns about government actions, particularly those involving Elon Musk and his team's influence within federal agencies. The group acts as a "resistance" movement, aiming to protect the environment, public lands, and government employees from what it views as detrimental policies and actions.
Key Themes and Ideas:
Origins and Purpose:The AltNPS emerged in 2017 following the election of Donald Trump, driven by concerns over potential environmental deregulation and suppression of scientific information. As described on their Facebook page, they are "the official 'resistance' team of U.S. National Park Service," with a mission "to stand up for the National Park Service to help protect and preserve the environment for present and future generations."The group initially utilized social media, particularly Twitter, to disseminate information and express their concerns, sometimes in defiance of official gag orders or restrictions on government communications.Concerns Regarding Government Actions and Influence:A central theme is the AltNPS's opposition to actions taken by the Trump administration and, specifically, the influence of Elon Musk and his staff within federal agencies. The AltNPS Facebook posts from early 2025 detail a range of concerns, including:Access to sensitive data: "Elon Musk now has access to your Social Security number. The world’s richest man has gained access to the confidential personal information of every taxpayer in the United States."Potential misuse of power: "An Elon Musk staffer misused the U.S. Marshals Service by falsely invoking their authority to intimidate."Workforce reductions and restructuring: "The Trump administration plans to reduce the USAID workforce from over 10,000 to around 290 positions."Rollbacks of environmental protections: "Trump announced that he plans to sign an executive order next week to end the promotion of paper straws as an alternative to plastic ones. So much for the sea turtles."Restrictions on federal employees and their communications: "Memos have been distributed to instill fear, warning federal employees that layoffs will begin if not enough people accept Elon’s buyout. This no longer feels 'voluntary'."Methods of Resistance and Advocacy:Information Dissemination: The AltNPS uses social media platforms to share information about government actions, potential threats to the environment, and resources for federal employees. They describe themselves as "a group of tree-huggers dedicated to keeping Americans informed."Call to Action: The AltNPS encourages the public to contact elected officials, spread awareness, and support their cause. "Please continue to call and spread the word." -
Today’s Meteorology Matters podcast is based on an article from The Atlantic on how Hitler dismantled democracy in Germany except you’ll notice one tiny detail has been changed. Donald Trump‘s name has been substituted for Adolf Hitler‘s.
How Hitler Dismantled a Democracy in 53 Days
Source: "How Hitler Dismantled a Democracy in 53 Days" by Timothy W. Ryback, The Atlantic (January 8, 2025)
Executive Summary:
This article details the rapid and calculated manner in which Adolf Hitler, after becoming Chancellor of Germany on January 30, 1933, systematically dismantled the Weimar Republic's democratic structures and processes. The article highlights Hitler's exploitation of the existing constitution and political vulnerabilities to consolidate power and establish an authoritarian regime within a remarkably short timeframe (53 days). It emphasizes that this process was not inevitable but rather a result of political contingency and strategic exploitation of weaknesses in the Weimar system.
Main Themes and Key Ideas:
Exploitation of Legal Loopholes: Hitler recognized and exploited the "potential weakness inherent in every formal form of law" (Hans Frank). He used the Weimar Constitution itself as a tool to subvert democracy, ironically fulfilling a "legality oath" he took before the Constitutional Court.Obstruction and Paralysis: Prior to becoming Chancellor, Hitler spent years undermining the political system by "co-opting or crushing right-wing competitors and paralyzing legislative processes."Key Quotes:
"Hitler set about destroying a constitutional republic through constitutional means.""Hitler knew firsthand how easily an ambitious political agenda could be scuttled.""37 percent represents 75 percent of 51 percent," (Hitler's flawed logic regarding his party's power.)“The Führer was a man who was possible in Germany only at that very moment,” (Hans Frank)"After a thirteen-year struggle the National Socialist movement has succeeded in breaking through into the government, but the struggle to win the German nation is only beginning," (Hitler after the elections)."In this historic hour, we German Social Democrats solemnly pledge ourselves to the principles of humanity and justice, of freedom and socialism," (Otto Wels's defiant speech)."No enabling act gives you the power to destroy ideas that are eternal and indestructible," (Otto Wels).“On the basis of this law the Hitler Cabinet can reconstruct the entire system of government as it eliminates practically all constitutional restraints.” (U.S. Ambassador Frederic Sackett)Implications:
The article serves as a cautionary tale about the fragility of democratic institutions and the dangers of political extremism. It underscores the importance of vigilance in protecting constitutional guardrails and resisting attempts to exploit legal processes for authoritarian ends. It also highlights the role of individual actors and the potential for seemingly minor decisions to have profound historical consequences.
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National Weatherperson's Day: This day, observed on February 5th, commemorates the birth of John Jeffries (1744/1745-1819), a physician and one of America’s first weather observers, who began daily measurements in Boston in 1774 and who took the first balloon observation in 1784. The day recognizes the men and women who provide weather, water, and climate services. It was created in the 1990’s. Meteorology Matters provides an overview of the meteorology field, its various facets, and related professions. We cover career paths, educational requirements, job outlook, demographics, and the historical context of weather observation. It highlights the diversity within the field and the numerous roles professionals play in public safety, scientific advancement, and commercial sectors on this National Weatherperson’s Day in the USA
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Florida Heat and Worker Safety
Key Themes:
Extreme Heat as a Growing Threat:Florida is experiencing increasingly severe and frequent heat waves, exacerbated by climate change and warming oceans.The heat index, which factors in both temperature and humidity, is reaching dangerous levels. South Florida is particularly hard hit, experiencing a much greater number of days with heat indexes above 105F than in previous years."The climate crisis is making Florida hotter – and more humid." ("3 heat.pdf")Data shows record-breaking temperatures across Florida, with 2023 having some of the hottest months on record, and 2024 seeing record April and May temperatures."Last year tied as the hottest ever, with July and August 2023 both breaking monthly records. So far this year, Florida has recorded its hottest ever April and May..." ("3 heat.pdf")Vulnerable Outdoor Workers:A significant portion of Florida's workforce is exposed to extreme heat while working outdoors. Estimates range from 25% to 26.2% of the workforce. This includes landscaping, construction, agricultural, and amusement park workers."A new report suggests one in four Floridians who work outdoors are vulnerable to extreme heat, according to the Florida Policy Institute (FPI)." ("3 hot.pdf")Many of these workers are low-wage, migrant workers from Mexico, Central America, Cuba and Haiti, with less access to information and resources."Florida has an estimated 1.8 million outdoor workers, predominantly migrants, who are exposed to increasingly brutal weather conditions..." ("3 heat.pdf")"The heat makes you feel like you’re suffocating," said Raimundo Perdigon, 58, from Cuba, recalling a recent job building an outdoor bathroom. ("3 heat.pdf")Indigenous Guatemalan workers, some of whom speak little English or Spanish, are particularly vulnerable due to difficulty accessing health information and advice. -
Impending Eruption of Axial Seamount Underwater Volcano
Summary:
Meteorology Matters looks at the Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano located approximately 300 miles off the coast of Oregon, is highly likely to erupt sometime in 2025. This prediction is based on decades of monitoring, a pattern of regular eruptions, and real-time data indicating the volcano is inflating as magma accumulates. While this eruption poses no direct threat to human lives due to its depth and distance from shore, it provides a unique research opportunity to improve volcanic forecasting and understand undersea volcanic processes.
Key Themes and Findings:
Imminent Eruption:Multiple sources agree that the Axial Seamount is expected to erupt in 2025.William Chadwick, a geologist at the University of Oregon and a key researcher studying the seamount, is quoted in multiple articles stating the eruption is likely this year: "A year ago, Axial seemed to be taking a nap but now it’s waking up and we think it’s likely to erupt before the end of 2025," and "An eruption does not seem imminent, but it can’t do this forever,”The volcano's behavior (inflation and increased seismicity) mirrors patterns observed before previous eruptions in 1998, 2011, and 2015.Unique Monitoring Capabilities:The Axial Seamount is described as "the most active submarine volcano in the northeast Pacific" and "the most well-instrumented submarine volcano on the planet."It is monitored by a network of instruments and cables extending from the coast, providing real-time data. This includes seismometers, bottom pressure recorders, and the "Regional Cabled Array" which has more than 140 instruments.This extensive monitoring allows researchers to closely track the volcano's activity: "And so we actually have real time data from Axial Seamount, which is pretty unusual." - William ChadwickScientists are able to track the volcano's inflation, a key indicator of an impending eruption: "The volcano has been inflating 'like a balloon' as molten rock accumulates within."Predictable Eruption Pattern:The Axial Seamount exhibits a "pretty repeatable pattern from one eruption to the next" according to Chadwick.Eruptions occur when the volcano reaches a specific level of inflation, making predictions feasible.Scientists successfully predicted the 2015 eruption based on these patterns. "The 2015 swelling allowed Chadwick...to predict that year’s eruption — “our best forecasting success,” he says."Non-Threatening to Humans:The volcano is approximately 300 miles off the Oregon coast and a mile underwater, meaning that any eruption poses no threat to people or boats on the surface: "If you were on a boat above the volcano, you wouldn't know at all that it had erupted." - Scott Nooner.Eruptions are "controlled" and are not expected to generate tsunamis. "The good news is that because the top of the volcano is still 4,500 feet below the ocean’s surface, it poses no danger to people."The type of eruption, forming pillow lava, is not explosive and results in oozing lava flow. -
Florida flooding four months after hurricane Milton - February 2, 2025
Meteorology Matters summarizes the ongoing challenges faced by communities in Florida following Hurricanes Helene and Milton in October 2024. While some recovery efforts have been completed, many areas, particularly in Pasco County and on Anna Maria Island, continue to grapple with severe flooding, economic strain, and bureaucratic hurdles. The long-term implications include potential population shifts and escalating insurance costs.
Key Themes and Findings:
Devastating Flooding and Prolonged Recovery:Hurricane Milton, which hit October 9-10, brought significant rainfall (over 15 inches in some areas like Tampa to Daytona Beach) leading to severe flooding, especially in the interior of Florida due to its flat geography."Hurricane Milton, which struck on October 9-10, plunged parts of Florida, from Tampa to Daytona Beach, under more than 15 inches of rain."The Withlacoochee River reached its third-highest crest on record (19.68 feet) ten days after the storm.Flood warnings in areas like Ridge Manor remained active for 34 consecutive days, highlighting the persistent nature of the flooding.Some areas of Pasco County, specifically in Dade City and near Zephyrhills, remain flooded 4 months after the storms.Properties in neighborhoods like Hickory Hills in Dade City are still partially underwater, with some residents needing to drive through neighbors’ yards or use boats to access their homes."Dozens of properties in the Hickory Hills neighborhood of Dade City remain partially underwater, including Victor Lemus', who has to drive through a neighbor's yard to access the road."Struggling Communities and Logistical Challenges:Communities are facing significant logistical issues, with residents resorting to using airboats to reach polling places during the 2024 presidential election."Overwhelmed by such water levels, residents found themselves not just facing flooded homes but also desperate logistical challenges to vote; many opted for airboat rides to cast their ballots during the 2024 presidential election."The lack of accessibility to flooded properties in Pasco County raises concerns about medical emergencies and fire hazards, with residents expressing worries about first responders being unable to reach them.Slow and Inadequate Recovery Efforts:Recovery efforts for local governments and public utilities have been slow.State-owned pumps initially used to remove water in Pasco County were redeployed in December, leaving residents to deal with the flooding on their own."According to a Pasco County spokesperson, state-owned pumps were used to help remove water from these areas following Hurricanes Helene and Milton... Those pumps, however, were 're-deployed' elsewhere in December..."Pasco County authorities cite that they cannot pump water from private property, leaving residents feeling abandoned and blaming the county and FEMA for not providing needed assistance."the flooding is on private property, and the county is not able to pump water from private property.""They told FOX 13 they haven't been able to get any assistance from FEMA, or from their local and state elected officials."Residents in Pasco County also believe infrastructure and stormwater management have not kept pace with growth which has exacerbated the flooding issue."They said infrastructure in the area hasn’t kept up with explosive growth, and stormwater from elsewhere is ending up trapped there with nowhere to go." -
Oklahoma Senate Bill 158 - Weather Tracker Licensure
Subject: Analysis of Senate Bill 158, concerning the regulation and licensure of professional severe weather trackers in Oklahoma.
Sources:
KFOR News Article: "Bill targets storm chasers with licensure requirements" (referred to as "KFOR Article")Senate Bill 158 Text (referred to as "SB 158")1. Overview
Senate Bill 158 (SB 158), authored by Senator Mark Mann, aims to create a regulatory framework for "professional severe weather trackers" in Oklahoma. The bill, if passed, would establish a licensing process, set requirements for those who track severe weather, and grant certain privileges to licensed trackers, including the ability to operate with emergency vehicle status during significant weather events. The stated goal is to enhance safety by distinguishing professional trackers from amateur enthusiasts, and allow licensed storm trackers to act as emergency responders.
2. Key Provisions of SB 158
Licensing Requirement: The bill mandates that individuals operating as "professional severe weather trackers" be licensed by Service Oklahoma.Definition of "Professional Severe Weather Tracker": SB 158 defines a "professional severe weather tracker" as an individual or company hired by a qualified media outlet or affiliated with a research program at a qualified institution of higher education. They must be employed or contracted with these organizations. ("Professional severe weather tracker’ means a licensed individual or company hired or contracted with by a qualified media outlet or affiliated with a research program at a qualified institution of higher education;")Qualified Media Outlet: A qualified media outlet is defined as a television station licensed by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) that broadcasts via various platforms (broadcast, cable, streaming). ("Qualified media outlet’ means a television station licensed by the Federal Communications Commission for the broadcast or transmission of television programming via broadcast, cable, streaming, or other platforms as recognized by the Federal Communications Commission;")Qualified Institution of Higher Education: A qualified institution is defined as any college or university regulated by the Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education that offers a course or program in meteorology. ("Qualified institution of higher education’ means any college or university regulated by the Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education that offers a course or program in meteorology;")Significant Weather Event: The bill defines significant weather events that trigger the special privileges of a licensed tracker, including:Enhanced, moderate, or high-risk weather days by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.Any tornado or severe thunderstorm watch or warning issued by the National Weather Service or the chief meteorologist of a qualified media outlet.Winter weather advisories, warnings or watches, and red flag fire warnings. ("Significant weather event’ means: a. a day of enhanced, moderate, or high risk conditions… b. any tornado or severe thunderstorm watch… c. any storm… d. a blizzard warning…e. a red flag fire warning…f. a flash flood warning or flood warning")Licensing Requirements: To obtain a license, individuals must:Pass a criminal background check.Supply a letter of endorsement from a chief meteorologist of a qualified media outlet, or a designated individual from an institution of higher education, attesting to the applicant's knowledge and experience… -
NOAA Email Chaos, Weather Funding Cuts & Stopping Science
Date: Jan 30-31st 2025
A newly implemented, centralized email system for federal employees, spearheaded by the Trump administration, experienced a significant security breach on or around January 30, 2025. This breach allowed external actors to send abusive and inappropriate messages to approximately 13,000 employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This incident exposed serious vulnerabilities within the new system, raising concerns about its security, management, and the broader implications for federal communications. Furthermore, it highlighted controversial changes at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which was reportedly responsible for the system’s implementation.
Key Themes and Findings:
System Vulnerability and Inadequate Security:The new email system, designed to reach all 2.3 million federal employees from a single address, was "cobbled together" rapidly, lacking basic security measures or screening protocols. As one NOAA employee stated, “Goes to show you how fast this [new comms system] was cobbled together – no security or screening on this address.”Abusive and Inappropriate Content:The 13,000 NOAA employees received a barrage of offensive emails, including:An email with the subject "Resign," containing the message: "Aren’t you tired of working for a complete c*nt?”An “Important Weather Alert” about a “99% chance of shit showers” over the next four years.Crude and inflammatory messages critical of President Donald Trump and Elon Musk.Spam subscription confirmation for "Scientology Today."Links to a personal newsletter from journalist Ken Klippenstein.These messages were described as “extremely offensive,” and “vulgar.”Controversial Changes at OPM:The email system was implemented by a new team at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which reportedly replaced experienced staff with "lackeys from his previous ventures." This reportedly included young, inexperienced individuals from Elon Musk's previous ventures (e.g. xAI, Neuralink, and Peter Thiel’s firms).The OPM’s former Chief Information Officer, Melvin Brown II, was reportedly fired for refusing to implement the new email system.The new email system is reportedly part of a wider plan for the Trump administration to gather information on government employees and implement a “hostile takeover” of the OPM.The OPM's new system is the subject of a class-action lawsuit alleging violations of Bush-era cyber security standards.Immediate Response and Internal Review:NOAA Deputy Director of Communications Scott Smullen apologized to staff and stated, “I will report it.”Vice Admiral Nancy Hann, NOAA's deputy undersecretary for operations, confirmed the “cyber attack,” acknowledging the offensive emails and apparent “phishing attempts”. She stated, “I am sorry that you were subject to these inappropriate messages and want you to know that we take these matters very seriously.”An investigation was launched by NOAA's Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO) to prevent future incidents.Quotes from Sources:
“Aren’t you tired of working for a complete c*nt?” (Subject line of an email sent to NOAA employees)“Goes to show you how fast this [new comms system] was cobbled together – no security or screening on this address.” (NOAA employee quote) -
Climate Change Impacts on Property Taxes and Home Insurance
Impact on Property Taxes:
Reassessments: Natural disasters often lead to property reassessments, temporarily lowering the value of damaged properties and thus reducing property taxes. As stated in the Yahoo article, "natural disasters usually spur property reassessments, which temporarily lower the values of damaged properties while simultaneously reducing homeowners’ taxes."Tax Rate Increases: Municipalities might raise property tax rates to offset revenue losses from damaged properties and to fund recovery efforts. The article notes, "In areas that were not affected, tax rates were increased to help offset the loss in revenue,” and, "In Los Angeles, wildfires similarly create more expensive places with taxes to meet increased funding needs."Temporary Reductions & Refunds: Some areas provide temporary property tax reductions or refunds to homeowners who have experienced significant losses due to disasters. California, for instance, offers this relief if losses are at least $10,000 of the current market value of the property.Restoration of Value: Once rebuilt, a property’s pre-damaged value is typically restored.Variations in Laws: Property tax relief measures vary by location, with states like New York enacting specific climate change property tax relief bills. As the Yahoo article states, New York's "Climate Change Property Tax Relief bill... provides assessment relief to property owners within eligible municipalities."Higher Rates in Disaster-Prone Areas: "Living in a disaster-prone area can affect your property taxes in several ways. They may be assessed at a higher rate because of the cost of municipal services that include emergency response, building, and maintaining flood control infrastructure." This highlights an ongoing cost for homeowners in these regions.Impact on Home Insurance:Rising Premiums: Insurance premiums are rising, particularly in high-risk areas like flood zones and regions prone to hurricanes or wildfires. The Yahoo article quotes, "insurance premiums often rise ‘in areas with the highest risk of natural disasters such as hurricanes or wildfires."Policy Non-Renewals: Insurance companies are increasingly dropping coverage for homeowners in disaster-prone areas. The Axios article notes that the share of home insurance policies not renewed in the US ticked up to 1.06% in 2023 from 0.8% in 2018. In Los Angeles County, the increase was more significant, from 0.86% to 1.43%.Reduced Market Appeal: Properties in flood zones may see reduced market appeal unless they have mitigation measures in place and the cost of insurance rises as a result, impacting the entire real estate market.Concerns about Uninsurability: There is growing concern that some areas could become uninsurable entirely. The Axios piece includes the quote from the outgoing Senate Budget Committee chair, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, stating that rising home non-renewals "spells trouble for property values in climate-exposed communities across the country."Climate Risk as Tangible: As noted by Jeremy Porter, "Insurance prices are often the first way that 'climate risk becomes tangible to people'."Insurers' Perspective: It is also noted that an insurer trade group argues non-renewal data is "unsuitable" for understanding climate change impacts, since it doesn't explain the reasoning for company decisions. - Laat meer zien
