Afleveringen
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Economist Dave Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, says that his preferred indicators on economic growth are showing a slowing economy, where "the recession may already be starting." He acknowledges that the stock market "hasn't figured this out," but he says — based on the way Treasuries are trading — that the bond market has already figured it out. Rosenberg says that the market has "been in a bubble environment for many, many months," but that it can continue to inflate without popping for a while. "You're investing in an environment where the wind is in your face," he says, "it's not at your back."
For a decade now, Chuck has offered the trick-or-treaters in his neighborhood a chance to pick cash or candy, and the opportunity to make a trade to try to get a bigger treat. It's his way of teaching basic financial decision-making, where children must consider if the financial prize is worth more to them because it's different and more useful than candy. The game changes in small ways each year, and Chuck is unveiling a new "second chance" option that actually would be a really bad choice for the children. Chuck also talks about how you can do your own scaled-down version of cash-or-candy in your home.
Discount-capture investor Rob Shaker, portfolio manager at Shaker Financial Services, says that he's "not seeing anything in the closed-end fund space that would point to any type of bubble conditions," but instead sees generic, seasonal discount-widening caused by the start of year-end tax selling. Still, he says investors should make sure they are comfortable that they can weather those flurries "and readjust to the better things that are on sale and then double-collect on the way up."
Plus Jon Stubbs, analyst at Clever Real Estate talks about the housing market as measured by trends in national statistics, which have shown that homes are now on the market for longer than during the summer, with median home values up slightly but median sale prices up more, suggesting that investors are paying a premium to make a deal now.
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Steve Cucchiaro, chief investment officer at 3EDGE Asset Management, says we're in a "market melt-up," the last phase of a rally or bubble that creates a buying climax, but that typically ends with trouble. Cucchiaro says valuations are in one of the three greatest periods of overvaluation they have seen in the last century, making them more dangerous than investors expect. As a result, he is holding more in international stocks than domestic issues and is ramping up gold holdings to 10 to 15 percent of the typical client's portfolio.
David Ellison, portfolio manager and financial services specialist for the Hennessy Funds, says he worries that "The market is becoming the economy," where a big decline in markets could drag the broader economy into a deep recession. Ellison likes the positioning of the financial services industry, but he questions both the popularity and impact of rate cuts, noting that from current levels rate reductions might not be good or healthy for the economy.
In honor of Halloween, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a scary fund — a leveraged bullish daily play on a specific sector — his ETF of the Week, noting that these kinds of specialized funds really only work for investors who will oversee their portfolio constantly to make sure that they don't get burned by the "hot sauce" they're adding to their holdings.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Andy Wells, chief investment officer at Sanjac Alpha, says the market is in uncharted territory, but that's not just about record highs, but also because the Federal Reserve is in a position where it will be cutting rates with the market at highs and with the underlying conditions suggesting that a cut isn't warranted or necessary. Making cuts will appease the market, but it may lead to a steeper yield curve, which has Wells concentrating on the short end of the curve to minimize duration risk. Wells says that nervous investors are right to think that the market can't rise forever, but it can keep going up for years, so the fear of missing out is as real as the concerns that the markets are topping and investors need to find a balance between the two.
Brian Potts, founder of Goods Unite Us and the creator of the Democratic Large Cap Core ETF — The DEMZ fund — brings his take on "politically responsible investing" to the Market Call, a day after Hal Lambert of the Maga ETF was on the show. He'll talk about his fund's methodology -- and how the research could allow him to create a Republican counterpart to his current fund — and his take on some stocks will include some surprising agreement (and not surprising disagreements) with Lambert on a few names.
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about dividend investing and why the benefits of regular payouts don't always translate to superior performance when compared to stocks that don't pay dividends.
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Economist and University of Chicago professor Alex Imas discusses "The Winner's Curse: Behavioral Economics Anomalies, Then and Now," which he co-authored with Nobel Prize winning economist Richard Thaler, and talks about the common curses impacting consumers and investors. Imas covers loss aversion and how it drives investors to make bad decisions, how the "endowment effect" explains our cluttered basements and much more.
In the first of two Market Call interviews this week that involve funds tied to political views, Hal Lambert, chief executive officer at Point Bridge Capital — creator of the MAGA ETF, Point Bridge America First — discusses the intersection of politics, investment philosophy and portfolio management and how he believes investors can participate in "politically responsible investing."
Chip Lupo discusses WalletHub's 2025 Credit Card Debt Survey, which found that more than 40 percent of Americans are still paying off credit card debt from last fall, and roughly the same number say they can’t handle more credit card debt, which could be setting them up for a less-pleasant holiday shopping season.
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James Cordier, chief executive officer at Alternative Options, discusses how the worst drought in Brazil in the last century has coffee stockpiles at their lowest levels in over a decade, driving up costs for every consumer who needs their caffeine fix before they start work in the morning. Cordier, a long-time commodity trader, says that supply-and-demand imbalances are impacting a number of commodities — but most notably coffee and cocoa now — and says it is the commodity issues rather than tariffs that have driven most of the price hikes. At the same time, Cordier says that central bankers around the world have been buying gold at a frantic pace, pushing the price to record levels but leaving plenty of room for it to go significantly higher from here.
Harvard University professor John Campbell, co-author of "Fixed: Why Personal Finance is Broken and How to Make It Work for Everyone," discusses how the financial system benefits the wealthy and financially savvy while setting up ordinary consumers to make costly mistakes. The book looks at everything from credit and insurance to student loans and retirement products, and Campbell talks about what it will take for more people to get a fair shake from the financial services industry.
Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, dips into the mutual fund pool for this week's Danger Zone pick, singling out a mid-cap fund that has a decent track record based on past returns, but whose future may not be so bright. The problem, Guske says, is that the fund has loaded up on low-quality stocks, amping up the risk and the potential for an alarming turnaround.
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Steven Grey, chief investment officer at Grey Value Management, says that inflated valuations have him making cash his favorite investment choice right now, noting that they can gain interest income while avoiding significant market risk while waiting for stock prices to blow off. The cash, Grey notes, not only will increase an investor's sleep factor, but it gives them the option to be buying when the rest of the market is selling. Grey says in the Market Call that his thinking also extends to the stocks he prefers right now, noting that he expects Berkshire Hathaway — notably holding a mountain of cash — to be a financial fortress that turns into a big positive when the money gets put to work when the market turns.
John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — discusses the changing landscape of business-development companies and the details he gleaned from attending the recent Eversheds BDC Roundtable, which focused on legislative and other issues that are creating challenges and opportunities for the industry.
Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com, talks about his recent analysis of how inflation is impacting credit-card rewards, taking some of the shine off the perks and making it more important that consumers know the rules to get great value from their rewards cards.
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Long-time financial journalist and markets observer Herb Greenberg, editor of Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts, says that investor expectations have changed, based on markets where rapid gains seem easy. While he suggests that this mindset is not new — and notes that Wall Street always feeds the quacking ducks by giving them new ideas for how to capitalize on current events and trends — he says it is becoming harder for average investors to remember that a normal market is one that goes up slowly over time. He agrees with assessments that the market is in a bubble, but says investors should know to ride along but protect themselves.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi makes the rare move of revisiting a past ETF of the Week pick, singling out a T. Rowe Price actively managed bond fund for proving the point he was making about it roughly a year ago, when he previously selected it for attention.
Plus Jeremy Keil, retirement planner at Keil Financial Partners, discusses his new book, "Retire Today: Create Your Retirement Master Plan In 5 Simple Steps," noting that achieving a comfortable retirement is less about the money and more about setting expectations and planning for them.
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Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, says the stock market is inflating a bubble, but that it's really "a bubble on top of a bubble" in the artificial intelligence arena, where the stocks in the industry — but also those adjacent to the technology are booming even though many have yet to prove a real ability to generate profits. Green is worried about slowing economic conditions and expects a recession to hit, barring some significant efforts by the government and/or central bankers -- in 2026. He says investors are overlooking opportunities in fixed income broadly and high-yield specifically, and he favors those areas over rushing into whatever has been popular for a while now.
Jacob Ayres-Thomson, chief executive of 3AI which is working with financial-services firms and index providers to bring artificial intelligence-driven new approaches to the market discusses how new technologies are changing the old ways of investing, but without eliminating them. He says that no AI-driven bot will ever replace the genius of a Warren Buffett, but it will help make ordinary market actions easier to forecast and, potentially, capture in an investment.
Michael Scordo, wealth management adviser at Park Avenue Capital, discusses the latest data released from the Northwestern Mutual 2025 Planning and Progress Study, which showed that Generation X — the middle child of the generations with its oldest members turning 60 this year — is particularly worried about its financial future. Many are going through sandwich-generation problems — still raising kids while aging parents now require care — and more than half think they won’t be financially prepared for retirement when the time comes.
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Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide and the chair of the Outlook Survey for the National Association for Business Economics, says the latest survey, released Monday, showed higher expectations for economic growth for the rest of the year and into 2026, with GDP growth -- which had been pegged at roughly 1.3% -- now expected to grow by 1.8%. Bostjancic cautioned that the improved growth forecasts don't make for a frothy economy, but rather seem to reduce the chances of recession. She says that economists improved their outlook, largely because they were too pessimistic earlier this year as they forecast the impacts of tariffs and expected more of a drag on growth than we have seen in the last six months.
In the Market Call, hedge fund manager Nitin Sacheti of Papyrus Capital discusses his long/short approach to stocks, and how he hunts out "special situations" that he believes are poised for above-average growth. Sacheti is a "Tiger Cub," a disciple of Julian Robertson, a legendary hedge fund manager.
Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener who, like himself, has a new grandchild, but who has very different concerns because that baby has been diagnosed with Down Syndrome. Rich Yam, director of wealth strategy/wealth and tax planning at Wealthspire Advisors, helps Chuck examine the various considerations that a special-needs family should have, and how grandparents can provide real help for a lifetime.
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Meb Faber, chief investment officer at the Cambria Funds, says that "extremely high valuations are a weight that's hard to overcome," and that the United States is currently "the most expensive country across the board." He notes that when a country ends the year with a price/earnings ratio above 40, the average future 10-year returns are zero. As a result, Faber is suggesting that investors diversify internationally, consider gold — which her describes as being "like your crazy cousin Eddie" coming to the family holiday party — and more.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that companies can manipulate earnings numbers in ways that keep investors interested, but which make future earnings misses most likely, and he puts those stocks that are likely to miss earnings in "The Danger Zone." Trainer says that 72 members of the Standard & Poor's 500 are currently overstating earnings by 10 percent or more. Trainer singled out NRG Energy, which has street estimates of 35 cents per share, but which he says is more likely to generate 6 cents per share in profits.
Chip Lupo discusses the 2025 Early Holiday Shopping Survey from WalletHub, which showed that nearly half of American consumers aren't waiting for Halloween to start their holiday shopping, but rather they will begin this month (if they haven't started already).
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Eddie Ghabour, chief executive officer at Key Advisors Wealth Management, says "the worst is behind us from the economic slowdown," and he expects growth to accelerate at the end of the year and into the first quarter. Combined with rate cuts, it will add fuel to a market that he says is clearly inflating a bubble, with that performance boosted as well by the longer a government shutdown rolls. He says investors should not fear the bubble, because the market will telegraph the bursting. "You can make the most money in bubbles," he says. "The key to bubbles is riding it up but making sure you are not all in when that bubble pops."
Ghabour is not the only one talking about the market being in a bubble, as David Lundgren, chief market strategist and portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, says the technicals show a market clearly in bubble territory, but in the long upward phase of that cycle. That's why he is fully invested, for now, despite expecting an ugly downturn that he thinks could begin next year.
Drake Hicks, head of impact investing at Variant Investments, discusses the unusual intersection of closed-end funds with impact investing, which goes beyond ESG (environmental, social and government principles) to invest in projects which have a purpose beyond just a profit margin. The firm runs the Variant Impact Fund, a high-yield closed-end interval fund whose assets are aligned with the United Nations' sustainable development goals, and Hicks talks about how shareholders benefit from the interval structure.
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Rob Spivey, director of research at Valens Securities, says many investors believe the current stock market run to record levels has been about price momentum, but he says that earnings momentum has shown growth that is strong enough that it should calm the nerves of investors who think the artificial intelligence business is inflating a market bubble. Valens' research revolves around "uniform accounting," and Spivey discusses proposals that would change how often public companies must report earnings, and talks about why he believes it would not have as much impact on the market as many observers expect.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi makes the newest fund created by Vanguard — an emerging markets fund that excludes China — his pick for "ETF of the Week," noting that the ETF is a solid passive adjunct to actively managed emerging-markets strategies. Excluding China, Rosenbluth noted, is a strategic choice that may depend on an investor's gut feeling over the potential for a trade war or bigger tariff problems in the future.
Financial adviser Dan Dorval of Dorval & Chorne discusses 'Financial Success for the Rest of Us: Quality of Life Planning for Mainstream America," the book he wrote 20-plus years ago and just revised. He discusses how planning has changed but how developing investor discipline has remained one of the key factors of whether a person will achieve financial prosperity.
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Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, says the equity market is "very excited, very ecstatic and continuing to move up," but she warns that stock valuations are extended and she says the market is setting up a fall. Smith says two phrases -- "The Emperor is wearing no clothes" and "The band played on" -- tell the story of this market, but she expects that when the investing public wakes up to see damaging impacts of tariffs and other policies, the market will fall hard. She's not expecting that turn soon, but she says it's unavoidable if current policies are followed through to their economic conclusion. Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, brings his "five-lens approach" to stock research to the Market Call. He warns that investors should be worrying about euphoria over recent market results, noting that if your bartender or barber is giving you stock advice, it's a sign that the market is overbought and investors should be patient.
Natalie Iannello discusses a study done for IPX1031.com which showed that 2 in 5 Americans are changing investment strategies and moving money due to a tough economy, with 42% shifting to safer investments and 36% adding new income streams. Reducing debt is a key priority, but Iannello says an alarming number of Americans have tapped their emergency assets or sold investments to get by in current conditions.
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Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at WisdomTree, says he "would like the Fed to be lower," and says that rate cuts from the central bank will help to spur small-cap stocks starting to participate more in the rally. Schwartz likes the looks of international stocks, but particularly Japan, which has reached record highs and finally recaptured peaks first experienced decades ago, but which Shcwartz says is valued in a way that supports significant future growth. Schwartz, co-author of "Stocks for the Long Run," says that while short-term turmoil could send the market for a loop, it is positioned well to keep delivering decent long-term returns.
Toni Turner, president of TrendStar Group, says it would "be normal and natural right now for this market to move down a little bit," because the market has reached and held highs, but she says that the technicals "are all beautiful right now," even if she is holding her breath a bit right now. Turner says that as along as the Standard & Poor's Index remains among its 20- and 50-day moving averages, "she's breathing fine," but she is prepared to "get wise" and do some profit-taking when the trend starts to weaken.
David Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Investment Managers' Center for Investor Insight, discusses the firm's 2025 Global Retirement Index, which assesses retirement security in 44 developed countries to see how well those nations are positioned to support aging populations. The index found again this year that Norway is the best-prepared country, with the United States finishing in the middle of the pack both among all countries and among the biggest nations; only one of the biggest nations even makes the top 10 in this annual study, which Goodsell notes may be due to the increased challenges that come with having so many more people reaching retirement age.
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Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says the economy is reasonably healthy and has been resilient amid difficult headlines, which make it likely to accelerate as rate cuts, tax cuts and deregulation kick in and provide a spending boost. At the same time, Brusuelas says he thinks the market is building "bubbles and period of over-speculation where there's a concentration of risk in one area of the equities market," which could lead to "a healthy correction" that brings the market back to earth and squeezes out the speculators.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, has long disliked the electric vehicle industry, noting that the stocks are priced more on hype than on any proven ability to deliver. Today he puts Luci Group in The Danger Zone, noting that the company has persistent ongoing losses, high cash burn, heavy shareholder dilution and is facing profitable competitors in a market that is seeing demand fall. Worse yet, he says the stock is priced as if it will "sell more vehicles than the best-selling passenger car in America."
Sam Bourgi of Investors Observer discusses the latest Big Mac Housing Index, which showed that it now takes nearly 71,000 Big Macs from McDonald's priced at the national average, to buy the median-price house in the United States, and what those changing dynamics — housing prices that actually have fallen in the last three years against rising inflation on food prices — means for the broad economy.
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Dan Zanger, chief technical officer at ChartPattern.com, says "the market wants higher" and is filled with cup-and-saucer patterns that "are waiting for handles to form," which is typically a bullish sign for individual names. Zanger says the broad market is showing some technical signs of resistance, but says investors should stick with what has been working. He did note, however, that for all of the publicity they get, not all of the Magnificent Seven stocks have been in the market's sweet spot from a technical standpoint; he favors Nvidia and Alphabet (google) at this point.
Scott Stevens, chief executive officer at Grays Peak Capital, looks at the private-credit markets, and particularly at how defense-critical spending is being impacted by the government shutdown. He also discusses private equity, venture capital and real estate markets and how they are responding to a new rate-cut cycle and more.
Ray DiBernardo, portfolio manager of the XAI Madison Equity Premium Income fund, says that covered-call strategies have become increasingly popular of late, as investors want to goose income while reducing market risk. While investors should use covered calls more as an income-oriented investment, their outperformance during the market downturn in 2022 has many investors also using them to hedge market risk.
Plus, Chuck follows up on a suggestion from earlier in the week that the government shutdown should spur everyone to take a financial stress test by answering a listener's question on just how to implement that strategy.
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Ed Campbell, the founder of Red Hook Phoenix Investment Partners, says that key shifts in the economy triggered by advancements in artificial intelligence and automation, changes to the financial situation, shifting geopolitics and more will make it so that markets and economies don't get so far off-kilter that they create boom and bust patterns. He says recessions and downturns will continue, but that the market will act more like it has in recent years, where it has climbed the wall of worry to new heights overcoming stumbles but avoiding crashes.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, acknowledges that the government shutdown and other current conditions have made investors nervous, so his ETF of the Week is a pick with built-in downside protection to calm the nerves.
In the Market Call, Adam Coons, chief investment officer at Winthrop Capital Management, discusses how he uses ETFs for a core-and-satellite investment approach that currently is neutral to market conditions, meaning that he believes investors should be rebalancing portfolios to return to planned asset allocations.
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Jeff Blazek, co-chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies for Neuberger Berman says that "valuation becomes less important when you have high conviction in sustained growth of earnings, economic growth and high return on equity," which is why he's focused on the earnings portion of price/earnings and is plowing forward with stocks even with the markets near record highs. Blazek acknowledges that valuations are stretched, but says that is much more important during times when there is less confidence in the economy continuing to grow and power solid earnings. Blazek likes the looks of international investments — particularly Japan and China — because they have better valuations at a time when global growth appears likely to pick up.
David Busch, co-chief investment officer at Trajan Wealth, says he is worried that the impact of the government shutdown could be felt most in delayed economic numbers, which could impact what the Federal Reserve does next. When it comes to the market, Busch is in the same camp as Blazek, thinking the earnings power has the potential to make valuations less important, though he notes he will be looking for that trend to change when third-quarter earnings are released soon.
Ivana Delevska, founder of Spear Invest — which runs the Spear Alpha ETF — brings her approach to industrial technology to the Market Call.
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Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, says that investors need to "keep on dancing" while the music is playing, but she says the tunes are about to change or stop, with valuations setting the market up for a decline of up to 20 percent that could might take a while to get here but which could show up this year if the market has a bad reaction to the Federal Reserve cooling on rate cuts. She notes that the rate-cut cycle could cut short the current small-cap rally, contributing to a down or sideways period. Hooper isn't backing away from domestic markets, but says investors should rebalance portfolios and lean into the better valuations available in foreign markets.
She's not the only one expecting the market to take a breather or more here, as Mike Passante, director of financial planning at Focused Wealth Management says that technical indicators show that the stock market may be hitting resistance levels now, which could lead to a small pullback as the market resets and refreshes itself. Passante says the market has room to rebound to levels that are slightly higher than today, but he notes any more significant gains this year would require a big increase in investors' animal spirits near year-end.
In the Book Interview, Victoria Bateman discusses “Economica: A Global History of Women, Wealth, and Power,” and introduces us to some women whose roles helped to make the world rich but whose exploits have mostly been ignored or forgotten by history.
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With a potential shutdown of the federal government loming on Tuesday — which would result in hundreds of thousands of workers being furloughed — the stock market enters this week on edge. Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Wealth, has examined how the market has responded to past shutdowns, and notes that the impacts typically are short-lived, though the longer any closure continues, the greater and more long-lasting the likely impacts.
Chuck follows up on the theme by noting that watching such a large number of workers potentially going through a personal crisis should trigger everyone to take a financial stress test, effectively simulating what would happen if they were furloughed and missed a pay period or more. He says that putting personal finances under strain helps set priorities and may also show that a saver has the ability to save more and differently.
Brian Thorp, chief executive officer at Wealthtender discusses a survey done by the firm which shows that 25 percent of Americans with $100,000 or more in assets would use artificial intelligence for financial advice or to find the human adviser who they would trust to help with their finances. Thorp says the results show that investors still value human advice, but they are using AI to bring some measure of control or order to the process of getting assistance.
David Trainer, president at New Constructs, reaffirms buy-now/pay-later provider Affirm Holdings as belonging in the Danger Zone, despite a series of management moves that raised cash and got the company off the list of zombie stocks while also pushing the price higher. He says investors who buy the shares now will, indeed, be paying later for the purchase, unless the company can find a way to generate profits out of taking on the risk of retailers, something it has struggled with since New Constructs first put it in the Danger Zone in 2021.
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