Afleveringen
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Given the opaque nature of the leadership changes prior the 20th Party Congress, the announcement of the composition of the Politburo and the Politburo Standing Committee will surely surprise many observers of Chinese elite politics.
In conversation with National Committee President Stephen Orlins, Cheng Li provides fresh insights into the main surprises on the personnel front. In addition, Dr. Li discusses whether the appointments reveal any shifts in the balance of power and factional fault lines in Zhongnanhai, what the new leadership suggests about the trajectory of domestic and foreign policy, and what Xi Jinping might have signaled regarding future political succession.
This webinar was conducted at 10:00 a.m. on October 26, 2022, three days after the conclusion of the Party Congress.
3:05 What is the structure of the Chinese Communist Party?
7:07 Who will be on the Politburo Standing Committee?
10:20 What are the surprises coming out of the 20th Party Congress?
23:31 What will China's foreign policy and economy teams look like?
31:03 How many Politburo members are foreign-educated?
32:59 What are Xi Jinping's priorities in his next term?
38:30 What happened to Hu Chunhua and Hu Jintao?
42:45 Is Qin Gang's ascension to Foreign Minister attributed to his relationship with Xi Jinping?
51:01 What will be the role of the State Council?
55:08 What are the implications for the Taiwan Affairs Office?
58:23 How has China's middle class responded to these appointments?
About the speaker: https://www.ncuscr.org/event/20th-party-congress/
Subscribe to the National Committee on YouTube for video of this interview. Follow us on Twitter (@ncuscr) and Instagram (@ncuscr).
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What does the 25th anniversary of the Hong Kong handover mean for the people of Hong Kong, the PRC, and the world? Much has changed since 1997, when sovereignty of Hong Kong was transferred from Great Britain to China. Through the lenses of language, politics, and identity, three leading experts discuss the relationship between Hong Kong and Mainland China, how it has evolved over the past 25 years, and what these dynamics tell us about Hong Kong today.
The National Committee on U.S.-China Relations held an event on June 20, 2022 with panelists Kris Cheng, Pierre Landry, and Gina Tam discussing the past, present, and future of Hong Kong.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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The global electric vehicle (EV) industry has experienced enormous growth in recent years. The United States and China recognize that EVs are key to a carbon neutral future, yet a complex network of supply chains, differing government regulations, and disparate consumer acceptance pose challenges to this great opportunity. How will the United States and China scale up the infrastructure needed for EVs? Where can they cooperate in setting international EV standards? How can they work together to address key cybersecurity and battery technology concerns?
The National Committee held a virtual program on June 7, 2022 with John Paul MacDuffie and Ilaria Mazzocco, moderated by Scott Kennedy, wherein they discussed the implications of a growing global EV market on U.S.-China relations.
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The National Committee held its annual members program on May 24, 2022 featuring four National Committee directors, Paul Haenle, Ben Harburg, Elizabeth Knup, and Nancy Yao, who considered the past, present, and future of the bilateral relationship from the perspectives of business, think tanks, foundations, and cultural institutions.
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After more than two decades of hostility, Ping Pong Diplomacy began a shift in the U.S.-China relationship towards exchange and engagement. In 1972, engagement was far from inevitable and, just as in 2022, anything but easy, with detractors on both sides.
The National Committee hosted a virtual program on April 18, 2022 with Pete Millwood and Jing Tsu as they reflected on the 50th anniversary of the Chinese ping pong team’s historic visit to the United States and its continued relevance to the U.S.-China relationship today, in a conversation moderated by Keisha Brown.
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Beethoven in Beijing, a feature-length documentary, spotlights the explosive growth of classical music in China since the 1973 tour of the Philadelphia Orchestra, the first American orchestra to perform in the People’s Republic. At the invitation of U.S. President Richard Nixon and Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai, the orchestra used music to help dismantle 25 years of isolation between the two countries. Today, China is energizing the world of classical music with legions of young musicians, glittering new concert halls, and a lineup of superstar performers and composers.
The National Committee hosted a virtual program on April 7 with Chen Jie, Jennifer Lin, Sheila Melvin, and Booker Rowe as they discussed their experiences in musical exchange to date and prospects for the future.
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In the context of EU-Russia tensions and attention on security within Europe, what is the possibility of future trans-Atlantic cooperation on China and in the broader Indo-Pacific region?
In an interview conducted on April 13, 2022, Ivana Karásková, a China and international relations scholar in Prague, discusses recent developments in EU-China relations and implications for the Sino-American bilateral relationship in a conversation with Matt Ferchen.
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To celebrate the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Shanghai Communiqué, the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, the National Committee on United States-China Relations, and the Committee of 100 welcomed members to attend a half-day forum held on February 24, 2022.
Prominent representatives of the diplomatic, business, and academic communities will examine how people-to-people relations, economic cooperation, and diplomatic interactions have influenced the Sino-American relationship and how bi-lateral relations might evolve in the coming 50 years.
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With a strict zero-Covid policy and surge in export growth, China’s economy grew an impressive eight percent in 2021, yet uncertainty looms on the horizon. Nomura and Goldman Sachs both anticipate that China’s annual GDP growth will fall to 4.3 percent in 2022; some estimates are even lower. Both the promise of continued export growth and the threat of surging inflation raise critical questions in a very important political year for China. What are some potential obstacles Beijing could face with an economic slowdown? How will tariffs, trade imbalances, and geopolitics affect China’s economic prospects?
The National Committee, in partnership with Peking University’s National School of Development (NSD), held a virtual program on March 2, 2022 with Dr. Hu Yifan and Dr. Huang Yiping to provide a forecast of China’s economy in the coming year.
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Following years of trade frictions that have cost American jobs and lowered U.S. GDP, calls have increased for the Biden administration and Congress to strengthen the U.S. government's strategies and tools that address the "China challenge" and ensure ongoing American global leadership.
U.S. Representative Rick Larsen (D-WA), co-chair of the bipartisan Congressional U.S.-China Working Group, has endeavored to answer this call, with an updated China White Paper offering a blueprint to enhance U.S. competitiveness vis-à-vis China and the world. The paper includes proposals for Congress and the Administration to recognize areas of bilateral conflict and competition, implement both offensive and defensive measures to compete with China, identify areas where bilateral cooperation serves both nations' interests, and take measures to strengthen American global competitiveness.
The National Committee held a virtual program on February 9, 2022 with Rep. Larsen to discuss his framework with NCUSCR President Steve Orlins and answer audience questions.
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U.S.-China competition continues to re-shape the way the global economy is governed. After a significant overhaul of foreign investment screening regimes in the United States (e.g., FIRRMA) and globally, there is now legislation circulating the halls of Congress that would initiate additional screening for U.S. outbound investment to China and other countries of concern. Such legislation faces opposition from some industry groups, yet there appears to be support on the Hill and in the White House for tools that would increase control over U.S. critical supply chains and technology transfer.
On January 26, the National Committee hosted a virtual program with Rhodium partner and lead author of the latest U.S.-China Investment Project report Thilo Hanemann, along with Giovanna Cinelli, Nargiza Salidjanova, and Eric Zheng, each with deep experience in investment law, Congress, and U.S.-China business, respectively. The panelists contextualized the genesis of D.C.’s greater scrutiny on U.S. outbound investment and explored far-reaching implications of potential outbound investment restrictions.
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How did the poor, isolated People’s Republic of China become the factory to the world? Shelley Rigger argues that the origins lie in Taiwan. In her new book, The Tiger Leading the Dragon, she describes the evolution of Taiwan’s influence from the period when Deng Xiaoping lifted Mao’s prohibitions on business in the late 1970s, allowing investors from Taiwan to collaborate with local officials in the PRC to transform mainland China into a manufacturing powerhouse. In the late 1980s, Taiwanese business owners lowered production costs by moving across the Strait, as China sought external investment to fuel its industrial rise. The book also explores Taiwan’s contributions to Chinese consumer behavior, philanthropy, religion, popular culture, and law.
The National Committee on U.S.-China Relations held an event on October 26, 2021 with Shelley Rigger to discuss her new book.
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CNN host and best-selling author Fareed Zakaria was the featured speaker for CHINA Town Hall 2021, a national conversation on how the U.S.-China relationship affects our cities, towns, and communities. From supply chains to national security, new technologies to climate change, the future of both countries will be determined by their relations with one another and the global community.
On October 19, 2021, the National Committee held a nationwide virtual event, including Q&A with one of America's leading foreign policy commentators. He examined the challenges and opportunities for both countries as they confront the most critical issues of the 21st century.
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In recent years, the U.S.-China relationship has deteriorated rapidly. Engaging China: Fifty Years of Sino-American Relations brings together leading China specialists to reflect on relations between the two countries over the last half-century and consider what might lie ahead. The contributors – academics, nongovernmental organization leaders, and former diplomats and government officials – analyze the relationship from a wide range of perspectives: political, diplomatic, economic, social, cultural, commercial, educational, medical, and military. They explore not only the accomplishments and successes of engagement but also the mistakes and misunderstandings, acknowledging the distrust and frictions that surround the relationship today.
On September 29, 2021 the National Committee held a virtual program with several contributors to and the editor of the volume, Mary Brown Bullock, David M. Lampton, and Anne F. Thurston, and they discussed 50 years of Sino-U.S. relations with moderator Tashi Rabgey.
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American rhetoric about Chinese students in the United States is growing increasingly hostile, causing some to re-think their overseas study plans. Some claim that Chinese students pose a national security risk; while a few may, it is important to recognize that the vast majority of Chinese students, pursuing studies in a wide range of fields, add greatly to U.S. campuses, local economies, and the country as a whole. On September 20, 2021 the National Committee hosted a virtual program with current Harvard Law School and former Columbia School of Social Work student Qianfeng Lin; professor of sociology at Syracuse University, Yingyi Ma (herself a former graduate student in the United States); and former U.S. high school exchange and university student, Nicky Shuwo Zhou, as they discussed the experiences of Chinese students studying in the United States and their thoughts about such students in the future.tw
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U.S.-China relations are arguably at their worst point since diplomatic recognition in 1979, and may be getting worse. In this environment, American researchers organized by the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and the American Friends Service Committee undertook a systematic audit of the U.S.-China Strategic & Economic Dialogue (S&ED) to see what benefits were expected from bilateral diplomacy in the past and whether those benefits were realized.
The report that emerged reveals that the United States benefited significantly from the S&ED process. Major areas of progress include stabilizing the international financial system after the global financial crisis, working through regulatory and technical issues culminating in the Paris Agreement, and jointly responding to the Ebola crisis in West Africa.
On September 13, 2021 the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations hosted a virtual program where Tiffany Barron, Rorry Daniels, Dan Jasper, and Susan Thornton discussed the successes and challenges of the S&ED process.
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Since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, five men have principally shaped the ruling Chinese Communist Party and the nation: Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Xi Jinping. During their decades of leadership, China, starting from a base of poverty and insularity, became a world power. In his latest book, China’s Leaders: From Mao to Now, David Shambaugh analyzes China’s contemporary history by studying the personal and professional experiences that shaped each leader.
On September 9, 2021 the National Committee hosted a virtual program with David Shambaugh where he discussed his new book.
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The U.S. military is pulling out of Afghanistan, a process that should be complete by August 31. Both China and the United States face looming strategic challenges as a result. America’s presence has preserved a fragile balance of power in Central South Asia, benefitting both the United States and China. It has prevented terror activities from spilling over Afghanistan’s borders, as well as allowing for trade and facilitating the expansion of China’s BRI initiative into neighboring Pakistan. The U.S. foothold in Afghanistan has cost thousands of American lives and over two trillion dollars, but has also mitigated the threat of widespread terror activity, the initial impulse for going in in 2001. What will withdrawal mean for the security, politics, and economics of South Central Asia and for the U.S.-China relationship more broadly?
In an interview conducted on August 19, 2021, Mr. Derek Grossman and Ms. Niva Yau discuss the implications of the American troop withdrawal from Afghanistan for U.S.-China relations in conversation with Dr. Daniel Markey.
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What is happening across the Taiwan Strait? In March, Admiral Philip Davidson, then commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific (INDOPACOM), said in a hearing before Congress that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could take place within six years. His successor, Admiral John Aquilino, agreed that such an attack could occur sooner “than most think.” More recently, however, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General Mark Milley, testified that he believes that China has little intention to take Taiwan by force, and that the capability to do so remains a goal rather than a reality. On July 19, 2021, the National Committee hosted a virtual program with Lyle Goldstein and Oriana Skylar Mastro to discuss China/Taiwan/U.S. military relations. NCUSCR President Stephen Orlins moderated and NCUSCR Director Admiral Dennis Blair offered commentary.
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At the sixth month mark, the Biden administration’s China policy differs only slightly from that of the previous administration. Relatively easy policy initiatives that could have benefited the American people seem to be on hold. The Senate has passed the Strategic Competition Act of 2021 which, if it becomes law as written, will restrict how the Executive Branch can deal with China.
On July 22, 2021, the National Committee hosted a virtual program with National Committee President Stephen Orlins in conversation with NYU’s U.S.-Asia Law Institute Founder and Faculty Director Emeritus Jerome Cohen. Mr. Orlins spoke in his personal capacity.
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