Afleveringen
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The failure of the meat substitute business will be the must-read case study for the next decade. It shows what happens when companies make assumptions about consumers and their motivations instead of doing deep research and thinking. It shows what happens when products fail the taste test. And it shows what happens when you don't give anyone a compelling reason to buy your product. As the economic outlook darkens, the future isn't bright for this stumbling category.
Time: 11 minutes
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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A press release from Harvard stated that a new study had found that consuming meat increases your risk of diabetes. It was reproduced - almost word-for-word - by hundreds of media outlets within a few hours of its publication. Did the media follow up and report the tens of nutrition experts who raised question marks over the study? Not so much.
When the media slavishly reproduces a press release right after publication it tells you that the journalists haven't actually read the study or done any investigation. Research by New Nutrition Business found that's normal practice now in mainstream media, much of which exists to reproduce press releases. And that means they are often producing misinformation.
Time: 15 minutes
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This podcast provides lessons you can use about innovation, new health benefits and reinventing a traditional food, told through the frame of three probiotic success stories. One is the story of how a trusted brand in Japan brought a sleep and anxiety benefit and created the most successful product launch - anywhere in the world - of the last 20 years. Two are from the US, where innovative and hard-working Turkish and Russian immigrants used tradition and technology to create something totally new for Americans.
Time: 25 minutes
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Oatly's classic Silicon-valley inspired business model from 2012 is facing nemesis. Oatly aimed to get to $1 billion in sales. Unfortunately, in focusing on a big sales number the company seems to have forgotten that it's a good idea to make a profit now and again. In the first six months of 2023 each $1 of product it sold cost it $1.38 to make. With the oat milk business changing and the global economy facing tough times, it's hard to see when, if ever, Oatly can get to break-even.
Time: 20 minutes.
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Billionaire investors, most of the media, and many environmental activists insist that we will soon all be eating cell-cultivated meat - a substance more commonly referred to as lab meat. Arguments are raging about the technology, its scalability, cost and regulation. But ultimately the decision about whether lab-meat succeeds lies solely in the hands of the consumer. And the evidence from real-world consumer behaviour isn't looking too good for the lab-meat promoters.
Time: 24 minutes.
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The fantasies of investors have collided with the reality of the supermarket. We are witnessing the long, slow death of the plant-based meat alternatives category. It was the creation of billionaire investors who want to force a 'protein transition' in order to make another billion. In the US and UK sales are falling, despite the billions invested, because the finance bros never bothered to understand the technology or the consumer.
Time: 26 mins.
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Nuti-Score is a European front of pack labelling scheme which ranks the healthiness of foods on a scale from A (most healthy) to E (least healthy). It's backed by governments in Germany and France. But it's opposed in Italy and Greece. Why? Could it be because it ranks many traditional foods in the Mediterranean diet as D or E? Or could it be because it ranks whole milk (C) as less healthy than Coke Zero (B)? Nutri-Score is flawed. And the evidence suggests that it may not be of much - or any - benefit for public health. It may be the world’s best example of how public health experts’ greatest expertise appears to lie in undermining their own credibility.
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We are witnessing what may be the biggest-ever failure in food industry history. The Silicon Valley idea that you can 'grow sales and profits will follow' has slammed into the reality of the food business. Plant-based meat substitute makers have made every strategy mistake in the How-to-Fail Handbook. Sales are falling. Most meat substitute makers are losing money. Products failed to meet consumer taste expectations. They couldn't even prove that they were 'more sustainable'. An echo chamber of investors, consultants and media pushed the idea that 20-ingredient substitutes would have us all ditching meat - and that plant meat companies would be worth billions. But reality turned out to be the opposite of what the billionaire investors thought would happen. Time: 23 minutes.
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Oat milk is big and its success is admired! It's the fastest-growing segment of the US plant milk market. Sales jumped by an impressive 72% in 2021. But two-thirds of oat milk's growth came not from taking business from dairy milk, but by taking sales away from other plant milks. Almond, coconut and others all fell in 2021. Meanwhile, there's an even bigger and more successful product than oat - lactose-free dairy milk. It's growing faster than oat and is bigger than any type of plant milk. Time: 10 minutes.
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Plant-based dairy is settling down as a niche business – contrary to what consultants and the media have been telling you. There's nothing wrong with being niche! But exaggerated claims that 'plant-based will replace dairy' always ignored food culture and food science, and the simple fact that most plant-based dairy just doesn't taste good enough. This week I focus on plant-based yoghurt and ice-cream, where sales growth is slowing sharply, and look at how plant-based under-performance has already cost one CEO his job. Time: 10 minutes.
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Billionaire investors thought they could 'disrupt' livestock farming. They thought that meat substitutes would be an easy way to make their next billion. But they are having a shock encounter with reality. Consumers see meat substitutes as expensive novelties and are sticking with beef and lamb. As a result, losses are up - by 240% - at Beyond, the best-known brand in the substitute sector. Beyond's US retail sales fell by 20% at the end of 2021. Will Beyond become one of the biggest failures in food industry history?
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If you want your business to succeed in health and nutrition it’s important to understand economics as much as nutrition science and consumer sentiment. Over the next 18 months we will see the chickens come home to roost for businesses that have neglected to focus on creating a successful economic model.
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Oatly, probably the world’s best-known plant milk brand, has announced sales in the first nine months of 2021 up 55% compared to the same period in 2020. But every $1 of product it sells costs it $1.26 to produce and as a result its losses are also up – by 700%.
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Beyond Meat, the California-based plant substitute maker which raised a billion dollars to fund its ambition to get consumers to switch away from meat, has reported falling retail sales in the key US market, a collapse in its gross margin and mounting losses. And this isn’t just a story of one brand failing – the much- hyped US plant-based meat alternative category started to decline in 2021, even as sales of meat increased.
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Low-carb diets are gaining momentum among the mainstream, and they're even being recognised as a treatment for type 2 diabetes. In this episode we talk to a UK general practitioner that has successfully been using a low carb diet to help his patients put type 2 diabetes into remission and improve the health of those with prediabetes.
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For most people today, the term “cholesterol-lowering food" doesn’t ring any bells, but its history provides food businesses valuable lessons. As we find ourselves in another cycle of big investors and food companies pouring millions of dollars into the belief that they can “disrupt the food system” and “change people’s food choices”, it's worth revisiting the story of cholesterol-lowering to remind ourselves that, in food, technology isn't everything.
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From soy and pea, to duckweed and moringa, plant-based proteins are having a moment. Julian Mellentin and plant protein expert Paul Hart do a deep dive into this area, and discuss why yellow split pea is the ‘new soy’, how plant proteins measure up against animal-sourced proteins, why ‘chemical’ ingredient inventories run counter to consumers’ beliefs, and more.
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Sales have grown, year-on-year, for Beyond Meat, maker of plant-based meat substitutes. But comparing one quarter to another, sales have stalled. Gross margin has slumped, and not only has Beyond not made a profit in any of its four years of trading, but its losses have worsened. Currently it is incurring $9 of costs for every $8 of sales. It’s little surprise that it is highlighting to the stock market its high hopes for new deals with McDonalds, PepsiCo and others.
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A major cheese snacking brand has taken a bold and innovative step which will either confound all sceptics and create a new category – or repeat a mistake that tens of companies have made before.
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