Afleveringen
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You’ve seen the reaction to Trump’s win this side of the Atlantic, but what about Canada? We’re honoured this week to be joined by John Baird, former Foreign Minister of Canada and Senior Advisor at Eurasia Group.
We discuss the fallout to the Trump win, why Kamala lost, and how countries can deal with the new administration. We also touch on other foreign policy issues including the war in Ukraine.
Biography:
John Baird is a Senior Advisor at Bennett Jones LLP and a former Senior Cabinet Minister in the Government of Canada.
An instrumental figure in bilateral trade and investment relationships, Mr. Baird has played a leading role in the Canada-China dialogue and worked to build ties with ASEAN countries. In addition, Mr. Baird has worked closely with international leaders to strengthen security and economic ties with the United States and Middle Eastern countries.
A native of Ottawa, Baird spent three terms as a Member of Parliament and four years as Foreign Minister. He also served as President of the Treasury Board, Minister of the Environment, Minister of Transport and Infrastructure, and Leader of the Government in the House of Commons. In 2010, he was selected by Members of Parliament from all parties as Parliamentarian of the Year. Prior to entering federal politics, Mr. Baird spent ten years in the Ontario Legislature where he served as Minister of Community and Social Services, Minister of Energy, and Government House Leader.
In addition to his work with Bennett Jones, Mr. Baird sits on the advisory board of Barrick Gold Corp., the corporate boards of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPKC), Canfor Corporation (as Chair), the FWD Group and PineBridge Investments. He also serves as a Senior Advisor at Eurasia Group, a global political risk consultancy.
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The UK’s first Labour budget in 14 years and its first by a female chancellor. Rachel Reeves has raised taxes, spending and borrowing. We discuss the main budget items and contrast it to Ireland. The markets are cautious on the approach and the rise in borrowing costs means less room is available in the next budget.
The CSO’s Vital Statistics Yearly Summary has been released for 2022. It shows a 10.1% fall in births in Ireland, with the fertility rate hitting a new low of 1.5 (far below the replacement rate of 2.1). This follows a similar report in the UK showing an even lower rate of 1.44.
US election night is just days away. We give our final predictions for the closest election in decades. The election night playbook looks at the close of polls in battleground states. These timings are the evening of local time on Tuesday November 5th. That means it’ll be the early morning of Wednesday 6th when Irish and UK viewers can see the results unfold.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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According to a new Financial Times poll, Donald Trump has now overtaken Kamala Harris as the candidate most trusted by Americans to manage the economy. Could the former president be on track for an unprecedented return to the White House? We dive into the shifting polls and explore the factors behind Trump’s resurgence.
Meanwhile, Ireland’s housing crisis continues as new home completions for the first nine months of this year have dropped by over 3% compared to the same period last year—well short of the government’s 2024 target of 40,000. Is this an actual drop and what does this possible setback mean for the housing sector?
And with Ireland’s next general election set for 2024, we examine what’s on the horizon for the campaign trail, reflecting on how unexpected events reshaped the outcome of the last election in 2020.
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The Irish general election, it’s happening, right? We discuss the delicate steps to orchestrate an end to the 33rd Dáil. Micheál Martin remains the key player and his recent appearance on the Irish Times Inside Politics Podcast holds clues.
Driverless cars are in their infancy, but they’re on the road today in 4 US cities. We discuss a revolutionary technology that will cause disruption to labour markets and our urban landscape. Could Dublin be a cleaner city if we had no more road signs?
The UK has just held an investment summit to spur new projects. This is a key initiative of the new Labour government. Should Ireland worry that the UK might finally be getting its act together? And just who else could challenge Ireland’s position as the king of FDI in Europe?
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We are joined by Seán Keyes, Executive Director of Progress Ireland, who leads the organisation's infrastructure policy initiatives. Seán previously served as Finance Editor at The Currency, Managing Editor at MoneyWeek, and Editor of an equity research newsletter.
Together, we delve into the launch of Progress Ireland, an independent think tank dedicated to connecting Ireland with innovative policy solutions from around the world. With the country facing significant challenges in areas such as infrastructure and housing, Seán shares insights on the urgent need to adopt global best practices. We also discuss strategies for attracting international talent, ensuring that Ireland is well-positioned to turn policy success into a reality.
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Who lost out from Budget 2025? Maybe no one! As the government announces the last budget before the next general election, we discuss the main points. Are the income tax changes a cut or just relief? Have we done enough to support the expansion of infrastructure? And how are young people looked after?
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As the U.N. General Assembly wraps up, President Higgins’ recent comments have sparked controversy, raising questions about how far he has stretched the boundaries of his role. In this episode, we examine the evolving nature of the presidency and look ahead to next year’s election, discussing what the office could represent and the key challenges it faces.
Former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar emphasises that a united Ireland should be seen as an "objective" rather than merely an "aspiration" for the political establishment in the Republic. We take a closer look at Northern Ireland’s economy and explore the realities of what a united Ireland might entail. Meanwhile, new data on job churn reveals a decline, signalling relative stability in the Irish economy – a positive indicator of overall health.
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A new long-read article from Bloomberg draws attention to the “dating recession”, how 13.3m extra singles emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic and are now adding to an “epidemic of loneliness” in the US. We discuss the decline in social and group activities, the implications for Ireland, and how it can turn around.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/us-economy-is-reshaped-by-covid-fueled-dating-recession
The US Federal Reserve delivered a 50 basis points (0.5%) cut in interest rates this week, while the Bank of England held rates unchanged. We contrast the two economies and ask if central bank independence is on the way out in the event of a second Trump presidency.
Finally, a new poll in the Irish Times gives a boost to Simon Harris and Fine Gael. It also reveals that cost-of-living concerns haven’t gone away. Voters believe this will be the main issue that determines their vote at the general election. They also believe it’s the main issue they want addressed at the budget. The poll also shows that two-third of voters believe young people have better life prospects overseas.
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The European Court of Justice ruled that Apple’s tax structure in Ireland amounted to illegal state aid and Ireland will receive over €13 billion in unpaid taxes. We analyse the fallout; what does it mean for Ireland’s industrial policy, should the government save it or spend it on the key challenges facing the country?
Mario Draghi's report The Future of European Competitiveness presents a comprehensive assessment of the EU's current economic challenges, and a set of recommendations aimed at restoring its competitiveness on the global stage. We discuss the 400-page report and ask where to for Europe?
US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris took the stage last evening in the first (and likely last!) debate – was it a knockout for Harris or is Trump being underestimated again?
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David attended the launch of Progress Ireland, a new think tank launched by Sean Keyes and a team of colleagues. The think tank believes in “unlocking Ireland’s potential” in the areas of housing, infrastructure and innovation.
We discuss the wider issue of Ireland’s budget surplus, termed a “luxury problem” recently in the Financial Times. Corporate tax posted another set of strong receipts in August, giving the government room in the budget.
Sinn Féin has launched its new housing policy. Government critics say it’s not real home ownership if the state owns the land beneath your house. We discuss this and ask if unwinding so many government initiatives in housing will really happen. Is 300,000 too few homes?
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As high-profile restaurants shutter their doors and price gouging concerns rise with the upcoming Oasis concert, we delve into the state of Ireland’s hospitality sector. With calls for a return of the 9% VAT rate, we debate whether it should be reinstated. Is this tax break crucial for the industry's survival, or is it enabling unfair pricing practices?
Ireland’s population has surged by 98,700 in the past year, marking the largest increase since 2008. However, with a pre-existing deficit of 256,000 homes as of 2022, we ask: Are we doing enough to build the infrastructure needed to support this growth? What does this mean for Ireland's future, and how can we address the housing crisis?
New CSO data reveals that earnings have increased by 5.6% on average over the last 12 months. But with skyrocketing rent and car insurance costs, is the inflation rate genuinely reflective of the everyday goods and services people rely on? We explore whether the official numbers align with the reality faced by consumers.
Correction: Around 18 minutes, the point was made that the 9% VAT on hospitality was in place prior to COVID. In fact, the temporary 9% VAT rate was enacted in November 2020, during the pandemic.
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As Olympic athletes celebrate their homecomings, Dale raises the topic of OnlyFans, a platform used by many athletes to supplement their incomes and fund their dreams. Is this a tragedy or a triumph? We discuss the wider porn industry and the high engagement from creators and users.
Fianna Fáil Senator Malcolm Byrne has suggested that Ireland could host the 2072 Olympics, nearly 5 decades from now. Is this too grand an ambition or just right for a small country to aim for?
Finally, David talks through some new data on industrial relations. All is at peace, it seems, but history tells us that workers have previously taken to picket lines in great numbers to bargain for higher wages. Are those days destined to return?
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Amid recent market turmoil across the world, we dive into last week’s stock market turbulence and its implications. We discuss the fallout from speculative yen borrowing, disappointing jobs data, missed earnings from AI and the "Magnificent 7," and the Fed's decision to hold off on interest rate cuts. Is this the perfect storm or just August jitters? Plus, Kamala Harris picks Tim Walz as her VP nominee—was it a mistake reminiscent of 2016? We analyse the electoral map, focusing on key states. In the UK, riots erupt over far-right misinformation. What’s fueling the unrest, and how does social media play a role?
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Daragh Cassidy is the current Head of Communications at bonkers.ie, the price comparison and switching website. Before joining bonkers.ie Daragh had over 10 years’ experience working in the banking and insurance industry. In his current role, Daragh regularly writes for the company’s popular blog and has appeared on numerous local and national radio and TV show to discuss personal finance matters, energy related topics, and consumer affairs.
We start by asking Daragh his journey to bonkers and the work he does there. Mortgages are a topic we discuss deeply, as the ECB now faces the challenge of slightly higher inflation than expected. Rates may stay higher for longer so it’s foolish to hold off buying your first home until they come down.
Revolut takes centre stage as we explore its success as a challenger bank and its planned venture into mortgage lending. But is it safe? Daragh unpacks the types of fraud customers face across the various banks in Ireland. PR plays a huge role in the relief they provide to customers. Savers should be moving vast sums of money into savings accounts, but they aren’t. We Irish love inertia more than a bargain!
Utilities are explored as we continue to see energy price cuts, but broadband providers face ongoing customer complaints. Daragh says we need more teeth in our regulation, and we may be too afraid of clamping down in case we lose providers.
Dublin forms the end of our discussion as Daragh lays out the changes our capital city should see. A whole episode could be had on that one. Many thanks to Daragh for his time on the show.
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Shoplifting in England and Wales has soared to a 20-year peak, with a staggering 60% increase in just two years. This alarming trend, coupled with a surge in street thefts, underscores a growing crisis highlighted by ONS data. We delve into the underlying causes and far-reaching impacts. We also explore how home size correlates with fertility rates worldwide. In the housing market, Local Authorities and Approved Housing Bodies are outbidding first-time buyers and dominating over "vulture funds," raising questions about the future of the social contract.
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Boston Consulting Group has released new research showing how marriage equality has bolstered wealth and wellbeing. We discuss the findings, including a higher net worth and spending for married same-sex couples. The “durable relationships” debate gets a mention. We also look at the latest CSO population projections (2023-2057). It shows a range of projections for a population as high as 7 million people by 2057. The heavy reliance on net migration, with acceptance of low fertility, is debated.
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After years of political uncertainty, the UK has decisively voted in a new Labour government with a supermajority. We delve into the election results and scrutinise the First Past the Post voting system—has it outlived its usefulness? The new administration hit the ground running, but decades of historically low investment present significant economic challenges for the new Chancellor, Rachel Reeves. Meanwhile, France's recent elections yielded no clear winner, marked by a resounding defeat for Macron and a surge in Far-Right support. We examine the current political landscape in France. Additionally, Ireland's Summer Economic Statement outlines the budget parameters for an €8.3 billion package, we look at potential changes to inheritance tax.
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When the US economy sneezes, the world catches a cold. For a change, we focus this episode on the US economy and the various data points that reveal its strength. The post-COVID years have seen a solid US recovery, and if it continues, it will give a strong incumbency advantage to the US Democrats into the November election. However, all recoveries eventually wane, and the US will be no different. The ESRI has released a new report on Ireland’s housing supply needs. It produces much lower numbers than the Housing Commission. We discuss the key issue of pent-up demand, differentiating the two reports.
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Daft.ie released their Quarterly House Prices report for Q2 of 2024, showing housing prices nationally rising again! With housing inflation on the radar, we look at house prices in the context of loans and prices – how do ratios compare with the world? Ireland is on an election footing, and we speculate (or place a bet like in the UK!) when we are going to the polls – pre- or post-budget? It’s less than ten days until polling in the UK; we look at how certain a Labour supermajority is and whether Reform UK will make an impact. And Taylor Swift is in town, and she may delay your expected interest rate cut!
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Hugh O’Connell is Political Editor for The Sunday Times in Ireland. Having spent more than a decade reporting and writing on politics in Ireland, we discuss with Hugh the fallout from the 2024 local and European elections. With a mixed bag of results, did the government win? Did the opposition lose? Or a bit of both? What made things go completely wrong for Sinn Fein, is Mary Lou a busted flush? With an increase in online “TikTok” campaigning and celebrity candidates, will politics change for better or worse? The far-right made gains, should we be worried? And are we only weeks away from a general election?
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