Afleveringen
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This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on .
Question for today. Is it possible that the bond markets have priced Burnham being PM in already? No movement after the defence resignations which make Starmer's tenure more likely to end (probably have to wait until next Friday to know for sure)
We should be at the height of the UK/ European gas storage filling season but that's not happening. Is that because markets expect prices to have fallen by winter making filling now a loss. -
This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on .
BESSENT: INFLATION IS GOING TO BE A SHORT TERM BLIP
Question: How high do you think the Bank of England will allow inflation go before the raise bank rate?
Considering many punters are already suggesting inflation will hit 4 or 5 soon.
Q: will the SpaceX IPO see profits taken in AI stocks & see USD rise and Bond yields rise as the mega IPO sees rotation and international players look to grab a slice of the $75 billion shares on offer.
Q: does the IPO show market is at a top
Is the world set up for an economic crash correction this year with inflation, unemployment, AI overpricing and government debt?
What probability would you put on it?
Question for Friday. How good a measure is the US Fed M2 (broad money) at indicating inflation down the line? 4.6% Vs UK M4 at 4.5% -
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on .
Morris May
With broad money growing again in the EU, (+0.2%) and expected ECN rate rise this month, what growth in April's/ annual M4 figure next week will prompt the BoE MPC to react in a similar manner?
Morris May
With the £ weakening by over 1% v $ in May (particularly for effect on cost of fossil fuel imports) how much upwards pressure does this exert on UK inflation.
Keith Cowan
What economic interventions would you make to address the youth unemployment crisis in the UK.
Truffle Hunter
With brent dropping back to $90 this morning how does this drift lower start to impact inflation?
Don't panic jonesy
Wholesale elec price is still dropping dramatically. When do we get to see this reflected in our bills? -
This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on .
Martin Whitely
Whats your view of whether tax increases are actually pulling in the revenue expected? Also on debt interest costs?
Morris May
Does the OBR exist to make other economists look good?
hes not the messiah
what solace are bond PMs seeing above that 😱 borrowing figure?
Global trends? Or are they buying the Operation Save Keir spin? -
This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on .
Richard st ruth
Q:😃 what do you think the Bond vigilantes are thinking about our Gilts movement over the next couple of years?
Morris May
To what extent do gilts sell offs relate to the £ exchange rate? We saw it to the extreme last under Truss. When does it become a problem?
Alastair Smith
From a quick search I couldn't find any comments from you on Modern Monetary Theory. It's been brought back into the Scottish independence debate following the recent election. In light of that, and increasing interest rates in Japan & elsewhere, wondered what you think of MMT?
Lairy Sanders
It looks like CDS moving too for gilts? -
This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on .
Harrison
Hi Shaun - sorry if I’ve missed the cutoff for questions already, - but what is QT please? Why would anyone do it given the losses being imposed on the public purse? Why is BoE so eager to push ahead with it?
Morris May
there is a fair amount of truth in this summary. So an early question for tomorrow's pod...is it possible we might see a bond strike?
Dr Twatter
reason for lower yields?
Matt Brookes
One for the podcast - will we be getting an energy/ inflationary spike as the effects of Iran filter through? -
This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on .
GB Investor and Politics
Shaun, i ask you this a lot, do you think inflation in the UK is because there is too much demand?
Morris May
With the 5 yr at 4.62, 2yr at 4.57 and 52wk 4.48, which bond yield gives a better indication as to mortgage rates rises along with BoE rate rises, with markets now pricing in 3 x 25bps hikes this year.
Richard St Ruth
I am a bit worried about Britain’s economy over the next few years.
I remember back in 1976, when Britain went to the IMF, gilt rates were very high. Five-year gilts were about 12% to 14%, while 10-year gilts were fractionally higher at 13% to 16%.
If our economy goes pear-shaped, heaven forbid, we could go to 8% or more.
Have you given any thought to gilts going higher?
Julia Macfarlane
Why are people not talking about this other than on twitter? I don’t fully understand how bonds work as I am economically dyslexic 😵💫 yet even I can tell something disastrous is unfolding. What’s going on! -
This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on
please talk about the plan for U K banks to buy £150 billion of UK government bonds. It's paywalled and I can't find a way round it, and even if I could, I don't know if I'd understand it. So. my Q: what's the idea, would it work, who'd benefit, who'd lose out?
Alastair Smith
Hi Shaun. Any thoughts on Sarah Breedon's comments which are reported by the BBC today with the headline "Stock markets are too high and set to fall, says Bank of England deputy" ?
Morris May
As the yield spread between the US and UK hits 67bps, at what point do either Bailey or RR take responsibility or will they continue to ignore the elephant in the room -
This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on
According to ChatGPT the refinancing mortgage wave in the next 2 years could involve roughly:
• 3½ – 4 million owner-occupier households
• several hundred thousand landlord mortgages
Maybe £200-£300 per month.
Question for Friday: How will this effect the UK economy in the next couple of years?
Morris May
Just how precarious is the UK Gilts market after the spike yesterday when the guardian story broke?
Mr B
What was interesting Shaun, that Bessent said in an interview at the INF meeting that he believes the
@bankofengland
is making profits on gilt trading and intervenes when required to control negative market moves ?
Do you believe he knows something we do not see ?
dAVIDTHECHEF
The BoE aren't that clever and proactive surely?
D-COO Bluesky
Podcast Question: yesterday, Fortune mag stated that "The premium U.S. Treasuries once commanded over other advanced-economy debt is narrowing."
How might the UK position itself to catch an outflow from t-bonds? -
This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the UK government bond market and the factors I believe mean that we are in a crisis that will not be easy to escape.
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This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on : Japan’s 40-year bond yield at ~4% cuts both ways — it signals a healthier, post-deflation economy and helps pensions/insurers, but raises government borrowing costs and risks financial instability if the shift is too fast.
Q: what do you think will happen?
With Bailey, the Fed and the ECB suggesting that they sit and wait on interest rates, is it possible that bond rates rise further than they have already while they dither? Could this lead to a bond/financial crisis? -
This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on
Full english
Hi Shaun....one for the pod. 10yr gilt at 5.03% this morning. I assume you're about to sound the Klaxon. At what level does stuff start to break?
Mark Bishop
A question for your pod, Shaun: with the 10-year hovering around 5%, should the Bank of England be a buyer, not a seller?
sally copper
When will the Bank of England be forced to re-start QE or Yield Curve Control? 😋🤪
Actually, I am really wondering which central bank will be the first ... the Fed, the ECB or the Bank of England.
Mr B
Shaun, do you see the UK govt or a quasi private BAE issue of a private bond paying 6.5% fixed yield long term a special issue to fund the defence budget & nuclear power plants.
As a way to fund both much needed areas to save UK ?
Morris May
With Gilts up 75bps in March, 2/3 base rate hikes priced in, along with the biggest downgrade in growth for the G7 by -0.5%, higher inflation increasing welfare costs and public sector pay demands and energy bill support, how likely are tax rises in autumn budget?erfect storm -
This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Please explain why that matters, what it means and the factors behind the rise in UK bond yields.A question for Friday. If Trump goes America first later in the year and restricts US LNG exports to keep prices down there, what happens in the EU & UK?Shaun for the podcast this week.....what are the reasons and consequences of the BoE holding at 3.75% this morning, when gilt yields have been surging for a couple of weeks now, and I see the 2yr is at 4.4% this morning! Thank you Sir......To what extent would a UK base rate rise dampen inflation in the coming months, given that the driver of it is a rise in energy prices caused by a supply-side shock? What other policies might be as or more effective?Somewhat tongue in cheek, when will the Bank of England restart QE or Yield Curve Control?With a swing from -50 bps base rate cut now being replaced by+40 bps expectation this year, how badly will this effect OBR forecasts and hence pressure on RR amid calls for increased defence spending and intervention in household energy bills?Q; Shaun can you explain to listeners that the last inflation rate is just indicating a slowing of the rise and previous inflation does not disappear.Q: 2 How people adjust their spending when oil spikes but long term effect will add to core inflation
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This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the positive move from UK index-linked bonds. : Are we back to the BoE’s Bailey MPC’s singing around the desk next week Britney’s ‘Oops I’ve done it again ‘and say inflation & oil is ‘Transitory ‘. Pressure on anaemic growth and increased borrowing costs of national debt make for a difficult relationship between Bailey and Rachel Reeves? Also questions on UK hydro output and solar power output.
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My first weekly podcast covering my economics philosophy as well as developments in Japan and UK GDP numbers.
