Afleveringen
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Tony Greer, trader, editor of The Morning Navigator , and co-founder of the MacroDirt podcast, to discuss the current state of global markets. The conversation begins with an overview of the chaotic economic landscape, including regime change dynamics, inflationary pressures, and market volatility across sectors like bonds, gold, oil, and Bitcoin.
Tony highlights the breakdown of traditional market correlations, making it difficult to predict trends. He emphasizes gold as a key store of value, noting central bank buying but expressing caution about its current highs and potential vulnerabilities if buyers step back. Gold miners, meanwhile, are performing well, though Tony questions whether larger investors will shift allocations into them.
The discussion turns to bond markets, particularly the Japanese situation, where yields have spiked, raising concerns about central bank intervention. Tony suggests that yields may continue to rise before any potential stabilization. He also touches on inflation, noting that while official numbers appear tame, everyday costs remain high, and the impact of tariffs could linger.
Oil prices are surprisingly stable despite geopolitical tensions, with plenty of supply keeping prices in check. Tony speculates that energy stocks could rebound if oil prices stabilize but remains cautious about their profitability at current levels.
The interview also covers the broader economic picture, including the risks of a U.S. recession and the impact of Trump’s trade policies. Tony expresses skepticism about chasing recession narratives, instead focusing on market trends and central bank behavior. He concludes by reiterating the importance of watching stores of value like gold and Bitcoin, given the ongoing themes of currency debasement and geopolitical uncertainty.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - Interesting Times1:42 - Politics & Correlations3:44 - C.B. & High Gold Prices12:05 - Timeframes & Signals16:46 - Capital Rotation Miners19:44 - Global Debt Markets22:57 - Volatility & Confusion25:16 - C.B. Coordination & YCC27:00 - Inflation Threats?28:41 - Oil Price Drivers33:18 - Recession Risks?35:25 - Tariff Ramifications37:14 - Copper?38:10 - Trump's Administration40:40 - 2025 What to Watch43:58 - U.S. Debt Overhang?45:21 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Substack: https://tgmacro.substack.com/Twitter: https://x.com/tgmacroWebsite: https://tgmacro.com/E-Mail: [email protected] Dirt Podcast: https://www.google.com/search?q=macro+dirt+podcast
After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years."
We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.
He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.
In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.
He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.
He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consum... -
Tom Bodrovics introduces Chris Whalen, author of Inflated: Money, Debt, and the American Dream, which has been re-released in a second edition with significant updates. The conversation focuses on the current state of markets, the impact of President Trump's tariff policies, and the challenges posed by the federal debt and inflation.Chris explains that he removed 20,000 words from his original book to make space for a new chapter analyzing the Federal Reserve's management of the money supply under Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell. He highlights how the U.S. housing market has become heavily government-supported, leading to increased volatility and rising costs for consumers.Discussing inflation, Chris notes that it is driven by the inability of governments to generate sufficient income to meet their people's needs, as seen in countries like Argentina. He argues that borrowing from future income through debt creates distortions, particularly in housing markets, where prices have surged due to low interest rates and government intervention. He also critiques the dysfunctionality of Congress, which he believes is unable to pass budgets or manage spending effectively.Chris emphasizes the importance of gold as a hedge against inflation and expresses skepticism about stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, calling them speculative vehicles rather than reliable alternatives to fiat currency. He suggests that the U.S. dollar's dominance in global markets contributes to inflationary pressures, as other countries benefit from using dollars without bearing the associated costs.The discussion concludes with Chris offering an optimistic outlook, noting that while challenges remain, opportunities exist for investors to navigate inflation through real estate and gold. He encourages listeners to manage investments with a long-term perspective, considering the erosive effects of even low levels of inflation over time.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:02 - His Revised Book3:08 - Tariffs & Debt Distortions7:12 - Reserve Currency & Inflation11:03 - Debt Markets & Fed/Banks17:32 - National Debt & Spending21:18 - DOGE Cuts & Old Systems30:17 - Trump's Strategy?34:04 - Gold During Nixon Era39:08 - Book & US Administrations44:13 - MMT Era & Cryptocurrency?50:21 - Silver Supply & 1800s52:06 - Stablecoin Backing55:02 - Concluding Thoughts56:33 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/X: https://x.com/rcwhalenBooks (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/mv3wctcrLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rcwhalen/Richard Christopher Whalen is an investment banker and author based in New York. He serves as Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC, focusing on banking, mortgage finance, and fintech sectors. Christopher is a contributing editor at National Mortgage News and a general securities principal and member of FINRA.From 2014 to 2017, he was the Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Kroll Bond Rating Agency, leading the Financial Institutions and Corporate Ratings Groups. Previously, he was a principal at Institutional Risk Analytics from 2003 to 2013.Over three decades, Chris has worked as an author, financial professional, and journalist in Washington, New York, and London. After graduating, he served under Rep. Jack Kemp (R-NY) at the House Republican Conference Committee. In 1993, he was the first journalist to report on secret FOMC minutes concealed by Alan Greenspan. His career included roles at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bear Stearns & Co., Prudential Securities, Tangent Capital, and Carrington Mortgage Holdings.Christopher holds a B.A. in History from Villanova University. He is the author of three books: "Ford Men: From Inspiration to Enterprise" (2017), published by Laissez Faire Books; "Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream" (2010) by John Wiley & Sons; and co-author of "Financial Stability: Fraud, Confidence & the Wealth of Nations,
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David Skarica discusses his book "Mega Returns: Profit from Maximum Pessimism," highlighting key themes such as the end of asset price inflation driven by excessive debt and government spending. The conversation begins with an exploration of how COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crisis fueled a period of unprecedented debt, leading to inflated asset prices across sectors.
Skarica emphasized the dangers of governments overspending during COVID, particularly in the U.S., where interest payments now surpass defense budgets. A concerning sign of fiscal strain. He warned that rising debt levels globally, especially in Japan and emerging markets like Canada and Australia, could trigger a debt crisis, potentially leading to hyperinflation.
Investment strategies were a focal point, with Skarica advocating for precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium as hedges against inflation. He also suggests specific ETFs for corporate bonds and options trading as actionable strategies. Additionally, he highlighs opportunities in emerging markets, particularly India's growth potential and Argentina as a turnaround play.
Green energy and technology are discussed with cautious optimism. While skeptical of some trends, Skarica identifies opportunities in green energy companies and rare earth metals. He remains cautious about cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, noting their volatility but acknowledging their role as a hedge against dollar devaluation.
Finally, Skarica underscores the importance of monitoring bond markets for signs of economic stress, particularly rising yields, which could indicate broader financial instability. His insights provide a comprehensive view of current market dynamics and actionable strategies for investors navigating a complex financial landscape.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Profit From Pessimism4:28 - Timing the Debt Mkts.8:52 - Canada & Australia11:40 - Global Bail Outs?14:44 - Revaluing Gold Res.19:23 - Corporate Debt Concerns25:01 - Trade Ideas & Theories27:28 - Opportunity Still in PMs32:52 - Platinum Metals?35:54 - Commodity Prices40:37 - Energy & Agriculture43:52 - Oil Company Risks47:32 - Emerging Markets?49:55 - Argentina?52:01 - New Technology55:05 - Bitcoin & Ethereum57:24 - G. Energy & Rare Earths1:01:08 - New Book Details1:02:16 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/DavidSkaricaYouTube: https://youtube.com/@profitpessWebsite: https://profitfrompessimism.com
David Skarica had an interest in financial markets at an early age. At the age of 16, he read the small booklet “The Plague of the Black Debt”, by James Dale Davidson, which was given to him by his uncle.
David was always a sports stat nut, loving football, hockey and baseball stats, which lead to David becoming intrigued with economics and markets. David is such an avid Football and Las Vegas Raiders fan — his principal in grammar school was Bernie Custis, who was the late Raiders owner Al Davis' roommate at Syracuse University, and the first ever African American quarterback in college and pro football history — that he also runs his own football vlog, Raiders Greats, which discusses great Raiders player of the past. He also is a soccer fan who supports Leeds Utd., as his father was born in Leeds, England.
In 1996, at the age of 18, David became the youngest person on record (that he knows of anyhow) to obtain the Canadian Securities Course (CSC) license to trade investment securities.
In the late 1990s, David felt that the market was becoming another epic bubble similar to the bubble of the 1920s, so he decided at the tender age of 20 to write his first book, Stock Market Panic!, which was published in 1998. Over the next decade, gold soared from $250 an ounce to nearly $1900, while the S&P 500 lost value.
In the same year that this book was published, he decided to start his newsletter, Addicted to Profits. The newsletter’s name was a spin on Robert Palmer’s famed song Addicted ... -
Tom welcomes back Lyn Alden, Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, to the show to discuss the intricacies of trade deficits, the role of the US dollar as a global reserve currency, and the broader economic implications for the United States. Lyn explains that a trade deficit occurs when a country imports more than it exports, and while some countries experience this cyclically, others, like India, have managed structural deficits by investing in long-term growth rather than overconsumption. The US, however, faces a unique challenge: its trade deficit is deeply tied to its status as the world's reserve currency, which creates an excess demand for dollars and makes it difficult to manufacture competitively.
Lyn highlights that the dollar's strength perpetuates this cycle, making imports expensive and exports cheaper, while also forcing the US to rely on foreign investment to fund its deficits. This dynamic has contributed to deindustrialization and a shift in economic power globally. She contrasts this with historical examples like the UK during the Bretton Woods era, where a similar situation led to stagnation before the rise of new powers like the US.
The discussion shifts to fiscal dominance, where large government deficits constrain monetary policy, making central banks more reliant on fiscal authorities. Lyn notes that the Fed is increasingly limited in its ability to control inflation due to these fiscal pressures. She also addresses Trump's tariff policies, arguing they harm domestic industries and shift costs onto American consumers while failing to address the root causes of trade imbalances.
Inflationary pressures from tariffs are uneven, with specific sectors facing price increases while others experience disinflation. Lyn emphasizes that sustained inflation requires broader money supply growth, which has not been a significant factor in recent years. She concludes by exploring alternatives like gold and Bitcoin as potential reserve assets, suggesting that diversification into neutral reserves could help mitigate risks but remains largely theoretical at this stage.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Trade Deficits & Tariffs5:02 - Sustainable Economics?10:33 - Dollar & Liquidity14:02 - Fiat Currency 'Growth'15:49 - Fed & Fiat Deflation?21:40 - Tariff Model & Truth25:05 - Gold, Bitcoin, & Dollar28:30 - Trade, Tariffs, & Conflict33:04 - Bond Market Impacts36:36 - Taxes & Gradual Tariffs39:05 - DOGE & Reducing Deficits42:00 - Fiscal Dominance46:23 - Devaluing/Lower Dollar?49:43 - U.S. Gov't Buying Gold?52:20 - Bitcoin Reserve?56:09 - Tariffs & Inflation Effects59:40 - Watch for Fiscal Issues1:00:50 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/LynAldenContactWebsite: https://www.lynalden.com/
Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlden.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, "Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance." Her site provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation. Whether you're new to investing or experienced, there's a lot there for you.
Lyn has a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering and a master's degree in engineering management, focusing on engineering economics and financial modeling. She oversees the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility.
She has been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. Her work has been editorially featured or cited on Business Insider, Marketwatch, Time's Money Magazine, The Daily Telegraph, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Street, CNBC, US News and World Report, Kiplinger, and The Huffington Post. She has also appeared on Real Vision, The Investor's Podcast Network, The Rebel Capitalist Show, The Market Huddle, and many other podcasts. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Brett Heath, CEO of Metalla Royalty and Streaming, to discuss the current state of the gold industry. Brett highlights a strong bid under gold, driven by macroeconomic factors such as shifting perceptions around US assets and central bank diversification into gold. He notes that emerging market economies are reducing their exposure to US treasuries and increasing gold reserves, creating sustained demand.
Brett emphasizes the undervalued nature of gold equities compared to historical standards, suggesting they are attractively priced for investors seeking stability and cash flow. He points to increased M&A activity as companies scramble to acquire high-quality assets amid a scarcity of scalable projects. Brett also discusses the speculative nature of silver, which is currently underperforming relative to gold, but sees potential for a rebound if sentiment shifts.
Overall, Brett paints a bullish picture for gold, with significant long-term appreciation expected despite short-term volatility. He urges investors to monitor trends in asset valuation and central bank activity, signaling that now may be an opportune time to invest in high-quality gold assets.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Global Macro Picture5:20 - C. Banks East Vs West6:27 - Who Buys Next?8:26 - Timeline & Mkt. Direction10:25 - GDX & GDX.J Outflows12:38 - Gold, Fed & Catalysts16:05 - Inflation Drivers19:08 - U.S. Debt & Servicing21:42 - Industry Sentiment25:28 - Hurdles for Gold?28:53 - Chaotic M&A Coming?30:50 - Perception & Valuations36:03 - Silver Ratio Thoughts39:13 - Violent Reversal Silver40:15 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://www.metallaroyalty.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/metalla-royalty-and-streaming-ltd.Twitter: https://x.com/metallaroyalty
Brett Heath is Chief Executive Officer and Director of Metalla Royalty & Streaming. Mr. Heath has a comprehensive career in the royalty sector and public markets with over two decades of experience. Over his career, he has founded and built over $1 billion in value using the royalty model in the public and private markets. He is currently the Chief Executive Officer of Metalla Royalty (NYSE: MTA) and Director of Key Carbon Ltd. (Private). He has completed over 50 royalty transactions in gold, silver, copper, nickel, and carbon markets with a diverse group of counterparties from major corporates, private equity, and private interests. -
Michael Gentile, strategic investor in the junior mining sector and co-founder of Bastion Asset Management, discusses the current state of the gold mining industry and its potential for mean reversion. He highlights that gold mining stocks are trading at depressed levels despite record-high gold prices, creating a compelling entry point for investors. Gentile notes that while gold prices have tripled since 2018, gold mining stocks have lagged behind, offering significant value.
Gentile emphasizes the importance of investing in commodities during periods of low sentiment and depressed prices, as this setup often precedes substantial returns. He points to historical cycles where negative sentiment and undervaluation led to major rebounds in gold mining stocks. Gentile also underscores the strong fundamentals of the industry, including record margins and free cash flow generation, which he attributes to higher gold prices and stable costs.
He contrasts the current market with past periods, such as 2015-2020, where similar conditions led to significant rallies in gold mining stocks. Gentile believes that the sector is poised for a rotation, driven by improving fundamentals and macroeconomic factors like central bank buying of gold and geopolitical uncertainties. He also notes that while tech stocks have outperformed gold mining stocks historically, the latter now offers a unique opportunity due to its undervaluation.
Gentile advises investors to diversify their exposure to the sector through ETFs or baskets of producing companies before moving into higher-risk junior miners. He stresses patience and a long-term perspective, as building mines takes time and requires careful consideration of jurisdictional risks and infrastructure challenges.
In conclusion, Gentile sees the gold mining sector as a multi-year tailwind driven by macroeconomic trends, including the repositioning of gold as a hedge against inflation and the US dollar's decline. He encourages investors to allocate at least 5-10% of their portfolios to gold or related equities to preserve wealth in uncertain times.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - Mining Valuations & Risk3:08 - Catalysts & Charts7:24 - Margin Expansion Growth13:53 - Miners & Projections16:08 - Global Slowdown Impacts?19:10 - Capital Rotation Charts25:15 - Timing & Positioning28:43 - Lassonde Curve & Patience32:13 - Other Metals & Sentiment34:46 - Project Timelines & Risks40:00 - M&A & Finding Projects45:50 - Secondary Project Factors48:20 - Rating Jurisdictions50:37 - Development & Resource Est.53:47 - Advice for New Investors56:37 - Portfolio Weightings59:23 - Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-gentile-01028552Website: https://bastion-am.com
Michael Gentile, CFA, Founding Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager
Before founding BAM, Michael was Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager at Formula Growth Ltd for over 17 years. Michael co-managed the FG Alpha Fund (US SMid equity market neutral) between 2012 and 2018, co-managed the FG Focus Fund (US SMid long short strategy) between 2014 and 2018. Since leaving FG in 2018, Michael has been very successful investing in the gold sector also acting as Strategic Advisor and Director for several companies in the natural resource sector. Michael graduated with Great Distinction from the John Molson School of Business (Concordia University) with a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) and received the Calvin Potter Fellowship from Concordia’s Kenneth Woods Portfolio Management Program. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation (CFA) -
Tom welcomes back Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees back to the show. The discussion delves into complex economic and geopolitical dynamics, focusing on how global powers might navigate a transition away from the dollar-based system towards a neutral reserve asset like gold. He begins by highlighting that the current dollar-centric system is unsustainable due to high deficits and debt levels. A potential solution, he suggests, involves using gold as a neutral reserve asset, which would allow commodities to be priced in multiple currencies and facilitate trade settlements. This shift could create a more balanced and resilient global economic framework.
Moving on to geopolitical implications, Gromen notes that the conflict in Ukraine has underscored the limitations of conventional military strategies, shifting the balance of power dynamics. He points out that countries like Russia and China are driving efforts to move away from the dollar system, which necessitates a new economic framework. This transition is not just an economic shift but also a significant geopolitical realignment.
Luke emphasizes the importance of incentives for avoiding direct military confrontation with major powers. He explains that such conflicts are strategically unwise due to nuclear deterrence and the deep interdependence of economies. Instead, he argues that negotiating a new economic order aligns with long-term strategic interests and avoids the catastrophic consequences of war.
Drawing on historical context, Mr. Gromen observes that the post-World War II debt-based economy is nearing its limits, making it imperative to return to a more sustainable model. He suggests that transitioning to gold as a reserve asset could reboot global economies, fostering stability and growth without resorting to conflict. This approach not only addresses current economic challenges but also positions nations for future prosperity.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:55 - Tariffs & China's Response5:52 - Trade Disruption & Inflation8:26 - Inflation & Real Rates10:35 - Bessent Put & Move Index12:26 - Treasury Auction Thoughts16:45 - W. Buffett Cash Reserve22:14 - Inv. Funds and Mandates23:53 - News Cycle/Gold Theory31:00 - Chinese Fin. Officials34:46 - Large U.S. Gold Imports40:48 - Official Denial/Confirm44:44 - Revaluing Gold Reserves48:28 - Gold Backed Treasuries?51:49 - Gold Pricing Cui Bono54:17 - Oil/Dollar Scenarios1:02:03 - Russia/Saudi & Oil Mkts.1:03:39 - Economics & Derisk. Conflict1:14:53 - Incentives & Ukraine1:17:17 - End of Debt as Assets Era1:21:30 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/lukegromenWebsite: https://fftt-llc.com/
Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest's widely-read weekly summary ("Heard in the Midwest") for the firm's clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.
In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC's flagship weekly research summary piece ("Straight from the Source") for the firm's customers.
In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC ("Forest for the Trees"), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.
Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003. -
Tom welcomes back Chris Vermeulen, the founder of The Technical Traders, to discuss the highly volatile year of 2025 so far. He notes that volatility has been extreme across various asset classes, driven by factors like geopolitical tensions, AI advancements, and fears of an impending recession.
Vermeulen emphasized that while day traders thrive in such environments due to significant intraday swings, swing traders face increased risks with massive price gaps. Long-term investors should prioritize capital preservation by moving to cash until market clarity emerges, as he believes a bear market has already begun.
He warned against the "buy the dip" mentality, especially for those nearing retirement, cautioning that this approach could lead to significant losses in a prolonged bear market. Vermeulen points out key indicators of an impending financial reset, including economic data showing hiring declines and rising unemployment, as well as housing market corrections with inventories soaring.
Gold was discussed as a safe haven asset, though Vermeulen cautioned about potential pullbacks. He suggested that gold miners could offer better opportunities once the market stabilizes. Seasonality plays a role in his analysis, noting that stock markets typically struggle post-May, aligning with his bearish outlook.
Real estate was also addressed, with Vermeulen predicting price drops of 15-20% and warning about the broader economic impact as housing values decline. He highlighted the psychological effect on investors when their largest asset depreciates, potentially leading to panic selling across markets.
The U.S. dollar's potential strength was discussed, with Vermeulen suggesting it could rally in a risk-off environment.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - Market Volatility & Trading4:58 - Markets in Topping Stage8:30 - Cliff Phase Indicators15:22 - Downside Targets Gold18:50 - Expectations for Miners?23:18 - Seasonality in 2025?26:00 - Silver Markets & Risk?28:57 - Bitcoin Decoupling31:45 - Real Estate & Nest Eggs34:30 - Google Search Trends42:08 - Dollar Thoughts48:49 - Mkt Resets & Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheTechTradersWebsite: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/
Chris Vermeulen is the Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. Chris has been involved in the markets since 1997. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author.
Years of research, trading, and helping individual traders worldwide have taught him that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing. They struggle to execute trades systematically for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders, and his mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.
He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest, and dozens of other financial websites. -
Tom welcomes back geologist and newsletter writer Byron King for a discussion on various aspect of the mining industry and the impacts of tariffs. They touch upon the fact that central banks are buying large amounts of gold and the impact this has on gold prices. They also mention the neglect of mining shares in comparison to the rise in gold prices, creating opportunities for investors.
They also discuss the current mining cycle and how companies are reporting good earnings due to high gold prices. Byron suggests investors look for companies with assets, a strong management team, and resources worth exploring further. He mentions several examples of promising companies and opportunities within the gold space, as well as mentioning his own experiences at mining conferences.
Additionally, Byron gives us his thoughts on the global market situation and how tariffs may affect various industries and economies. Byron encourages listeners to explore more about hard assets and investing in metals and energy for potential opportunities and growth.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - First 100 Days & Gold4:35 - Gold, Uncertainty & Price10:45 - Trump Taxes & Deficits17:57 - W. Vs E. Gold Monetization25:44 - China & Trade War Options35:17 - Trump Greenland & Canada44:44 - Underinvestment in Mining55:00 - Miner Margins & Sentiment1:02:43 - Opinions at Conferences1:09:23 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://paradigmpressgroup.com/
Byron King has first-hand expertise and connections in important industries like commodities and defense. He literally goes the extra mile to bring you perspectives you won’t find anywhere else.
His insights have been featured on MSN Money, Marketwatch.com, Fox Business News, CNBC’s Squawk Box, Larry Kudlow, Glenn Beck and PBS’s NewsHour. He has also been published in the Financial Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal.
Byron graduated from Harvard University with a degree in geological sciences. He then went to work as a geologist for Gulf Oil Exploration and Production. Next came a tour as a flight officer for the U.S. Navy. At one point, he was an aide to the United States Chief of Naval Operations. After leaving active duty, Byron began practicing law.
In 2002, he started corresponding with the staff of The Daily Reckoning. His work was featured so frequently he was often called an “unpaid contributor.” When he officially joined the staff, he began criss-crossing the globe in search of the world’s best mining investment opportunities.
Even now Byron spends much of his time away from home, checking out remote exploration sites, mines, rigs and plants to bring you a first-hand account of almost every investment opportunity he recommends.
His way of breaking down technical language into everyday English has earned him a lot of fans. And you can count on him to give you the clearest picture of companies that make the world work. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes John Johnston (JJ), a seasoned trader with over 47 years of experience and 30-Years on the Comex and Nymex.
John expresses a bullish stance on gold, emphasizing its long-term potential despite near-term volatility. He acknowledges silver's struggles due to contango and high costs but remains optimistic about its eventual rebound. He also highlights his bullishness on bonds and the U.S. economy, crediting President Trump for fostering positive change and balance in the financial system.
JJ's trading strategy revolves around technical indicators like the slow stochastic oscillator and Wells Wilder’s directional movement indicator, which he applies across various markets. He stresses the importance of position sizing, risk management, and understanding one's limitations as critical components of successful trading.
The conversation delves into broader economic themes, including Trump's policies on taxation, tariffs, and antitrust measures, which JJ believes could redistribute wealth more equitably. He also touches on risks such as geopolitical tensions and potential recessions but remains optimistic about the administration's ability to navigate these challenges.
John critiques the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, arguing it should prioritize protecting the dollar and banking system. He reflects on the historical significance of current events, likening them to pivotal moments in American history that will shape the nation's future.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:57 - Current Market Thoughts3:30 - Comex Experience11:23 - Gold Bull & Sentiment15:00 - Crude / Gold Ratio24:46 - Trump Policies & Risks34:48 - Silver Scenarios39:50 - Manipulation & Metals?43:20 - Vault Audits & Tungsten47:16 - Powell Challenges53:12 - Concluding Thoughts55:25 - Wrap Up
Guest LinksSubstack: https://jj745.substack.comX: https://x.com/Alyosha745
John Johnston (JJ) is a veteran trader for 47-years with 30-years experience with the Comex and NYMEX. Known for his expertise in energy, gold, and silver, his views are old school pit wisdom with decades of technical evolution, and a somewhat literate overview of history and maket-lore. He writes about market trends and insights on the Market Vibes Substack. He says, "As a writer, I never try to be right. I try to be honest. I never want a reader to think what I think. I want the reader to know what I know." -
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, host Tom Bodrovics interviews Josh Phair, CEO of Scottsdale Mint and Wyoming Reserve. The discussion centers on the current state of global finance, particularly the role of gold as a reserve asset and its implications for central banks, markets, and investors.
Phair highlights that central banks are increasingly turning to gold as a risk-free asset, replacing treasuries on their balance sheets. This shift is driven by de-leveraging and de-risking strategies amid concerns over fiat currency inflation. He notes that countries like China have been leading this trend, with significant imports of gold into the U.S., signaling a global "gold race."
The conversation also touches on Basel III regulations, set to take effect in summer 2025, which require banks to hold more capital and physical gold. Phair explains that owning ETFs does not provide the same risk-free status as holding physical gold, prompting central banks to prioritize its acquisition.
Phair discusses the recent LBMA delivery issues, where metals were being requested at unprecedented rates, leading to delays. He suggests this was a combination of factors, including tariffs, market dynamics, and regulatory preparedness.
Phair also explores the role of gold in a potential monetary reset, suggesting that while it won't happen overnight, gold is likely to play a significant role due to its status as a trusted asset. He advises investors to follow the lead of central banks and accumulate physical gold as a hedge against uncertainty.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Gold Vs. Treasuries3:20 - LBMA Deliveries & Tariffs10:37 - Exchange Purity Specs12:36 - Who is Buying?17:02 - Bessent & Gold19:24 - Risks & Scenarios24:27 - Public & Retail Interest27:25 - Fed & China Trade Collapse35:49 - Manufacturing Investment42:50 - Capital Rotation & BRICS45:02 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://www.scottsdalemint.comX: https://x.com/scottsdalemintX: https://x.com/JoshPhilipPhairInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/scottsdalemint/
Scottsdale Mint was started in 2008 by Josh Phair after working as Vice President of what is now known as Willis Towers Watson, where he ran the North American Mining Practice, personally managing dozens of the largest mining companies and their risk management operations.
Dedicating himself to innovation, quality, and security, Mr. Phair orchestrated a remarkable transformation of the company, evolving it from a mere retailer into a prominent U.S.-based manufacturer. Simultaneously, he adeptly managed a sophisticated trade and hedge book encompassing commodities, currencies, and digital assets. Thanks to his strategic leadership, Scottsdale Mint has earned global recognition as a premier brand in the precious metals industry.
Josh Phair also cofounded and serves as CEO of The Wyoming Reserve Opportunity Zone Fund, a tax-advantaged precious metals vaulting business.
In addition to his remarkable achievements, Mr. Phair’s profound appreciation for fine art extends to a deep passion for both traditional and digital artistic expressions. This passion serves as the driving force behind the artistic excellence that sets Scottsdale Mint apart in the realm of precious metals. -
Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa, Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital, to discuss the current state of gold, silver, mining stocks, and broader economic trends. Costa emphasizes that despite technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions in gold, the underlying macroeconomic factors point to continued strength in precious metals.
He highlights the role of central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China, Russia, and Turkey, which have been significant buyers of gold. Costa argues that gold's revaluation is driven by global debt imbalances, de-globalization trends, and countries seeking to stabilize their monetary systems. He also explains how higher gold prices can increase the U.S. Treasury’s cash reserves, enabling buybacks of Treasuries without quantitative easing, which he believes will be a critical tool for managing debt.
Costa is bullish on mining stocks, noting they are historically undervalued relative to U.S. equities and have outperformed over the past decade. He suggests that as global infrastructure needs grow and supply chains shift, mining companies will play a crucial role in meeting demand for essential commodities. Additionally, he points out the attractive valuations of silver, given its high gold-to-silver ratio, which he believes could lead to significant price appreciation.
The discussion also touches on the U.S. dollar’s structural downtrend, driven by high debt levels and interest payment burdens, and how this impacts emerging markets positively. Costa predicts that lower yields on short-term Treasuries will benefit miners and other sectors. He concludes by advocating for increased exposure to energy stocks due to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introductions0:38 - Technical Bear Signals?5:54 - Monetizing U.S. Assets11:08 - Gold Re-Valuation Chart15:00 - Tariffs & Fed Policy20:08 - Dollar Struct Downtrend26:10 - Mining Stock Value31:30 - A Correction Coming?35:33 - GS Ratio Imbalances40:09 - Gaining Metal Exposure43:43 - Education & Sentiment47:00 - Mkt. Rotation & Wrap Up
Guest Links:X: https://x.com/tavicostaX: https://x.com/crescat_capitalWebsite: https://crescat.net
Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.
His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.
Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University. -
Tom welcomes back David Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics to the show. Dave discusses his perspectives on various risks that he sees in the current economic and geopolitical landscape. He expresses concerns about the growing federal debt load in the US and the potential implications of the dollar losing its status as the world's reserve currency. Kranzler also touches upon the geopolitical tensions between major powers like China, Russia, and the US, which he believes could lead to significant consequences for the global financial system if cooler heads don't prevail.
On a more positive note, Kranzler emphasizes the potential opportunities in the mining sector, specifically gold and silver miners, as these metals continue to perform well during this economic climate. He highlights several companies that he believes have strong potential for growth. He shares his thoughts on the recent M&A activity in the mining industry and the implications of a potential shift towards a gold-backed currency monetary standard.
Throughout the interview, Kranzler offers insights into his investment strategies, discussing the importance of due diligence and staying informed about economic and geopolitical developments while trying to enjoy life despite uncertain times.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:58 - Ignoring Current Risks4:32 - U.S. Debt & DOGE7:10 - Trump & China Clash9:50 - Trillion Defense Budget12:08 - Global Dollar Trends14:58 - China T-Bill Holdings17:17 - Trust & Gold Holdings19:13 - Counterparty Risk24:35 - C.B. Secrecy27:56 - Gold Price & GSR31:00 - China Industry & Silver35:43 - Bank Reports & Gold39:12 - Thoughts on Bessent43:53 - A U.S. CBDC Coming?47:28 - Gold & Producers57:14 - Mergers & Acquisitions1:02:15 - Gold/Miner Downside?1:08:04 - Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:Substack: https://miningstockjournal.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/InvResDynamicsWebsite: https://investmentresearchdynamics.comNewsletter: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mining-stock-journal
David Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master's degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance. He writes a blog to help people understand and analyze what is going on in our financial system and economy. -
Tom welcomes back Peter Goodburn from WaveTrack International to discuss his analysis of the financial markets. Goodburn's focus is on Elliott Wave analysis and he believes that the current market environment can be understood as a binary relation to tariffs. If tariffs continue, stock markets will decline, and gold prices will rise. Conversely, if negotiations cool off, the stock market may recover, but gold prices may experience profit-taking sell-offs.
Goodburn also shared his perspective on interest rates, suggesting that Treasury yields are heading lower due to the perception of increasing inflation risks. He believes this decrease in yields indicates that a US downturn is likely, although he did not specify a timeframe for when this may occur. The interview also touched upon copper prices, with Goodburn noting that China's position on strategic metals could impact their availability and pricing going forward.
As the conversation concludes, Goodburn emphasized the importance of following price levels and wave patterns instead of being overly reliant on news flow to make trading decisions.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Analysis of the Markets3:27 - S&P Charts & Sentiment10:37 - Nasdaq Outlook13:04 - Blow-Off Technicals17:42 - Global Capital Rotation24:54 - Global Market Surveys25:37 - Dr. Copper & Tariffs31:38 - China & Rare Earths34:26 - Gold's Strength & Inflows38:12 - Gold Pullback Coming?44:47 - US Dollar Thoughts48:30 - Jerome Powell & Rates51:13 - Weak Canadian Peso54:55 - Treasuries & Yield Spikes59:22 - Tariffs & Inflation1:04:50 - Crude Oil Prices1:09:06 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/ElliottWave_WTIWebsite: https://wavetrack.com
Peter Goodburn is the founding partner of WaveTrack International. His trading experience spans back to the late 1970s working then in the commodities business for exchange members and their clients. In those earlier years of his career, he created the first OTC (over-the-counter) copper option product based upon the Comex (New York) contract around the mid-eighties, and in the same period, devised Opval, an option-evaluation software program that is currently used in many of the major market-making institutions of today.
His fascination with price activity and how that related to the news flow within the markets captured his imagination early on. Peter's first annual diary of 1978 records his notes and remarks on how the interaction and relationship of fundamental news and price movement often contradicted themselves. Some years later, this was to ignite his interest in causal theory and naturally, the Elliott Wave Principle.
He was first introduced to the Elliott Wave Principle in the mid-eighties listening to daily updates of financial commentary by Bob Beckman on LBC radio (London Broadcasting Company). This led him to the work of Frost/Prechter and their first re-publication of R.N.Elliott's (1871-1948) original treatise of 1938 (The Wave Principle) and 1946 (Nature’s Law – The Secret of the Universe), entitled "the Elliott Wave Principle" (1978). Peter’s a self-proclaimed purist of the Wave Principle but has developed a unique approach of geometric Ratio & Proportion that is instrumental in maintaining a dispassionate and objective view of the market. He has applied this analysis to every major asset class over the years, stocks, bonds, currencies & commodities, and promotes the importance of interdependency of the combined group.
Peter has been a member of the U.K.’s Society of Technical Analysts (STA) for over twenty-five years and is a Certified Financial Technician recognized by the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). He has taught the Elliott Wave Principle to students at the London School of Economics as part of the STA’s diploma program and is a member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and the Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology and Life Sciences. -
In this episode on Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Jaime Carrasco. Jaime is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management.
Jaime discusses the current economic landscape and the implications for investors. Carrasco emphasizes the importance of understanding the paradigm shift in the monetary system, particularly the role of gold and silver as sound money.
Carrasco highlights that the global economy is facing a debt bubble, where each additional dollar of debt fails to stimulate growth, leading instead to social instability. He argues that this situation is similar to what Latin America experienced, with the US now reaching a critical point. Carrasco believes that the current fiat system is imploding, and gold will play a central role in the upcoming reset of the monetary system.
He discusses the rise of gold prices across major currencies, noting that this reflects the decline in purchasing power of fiat currencies rather than an increase in gold's intrinsic value. Carrasco warns against complacency among financial advisors who fail to recognize these systemic changes and advises investors to allocate a significant portion of their portfolios to precious metals, particularly through well-managed mining companies.
Carrasco also delves into the role of silver, emphasizing its structural deficit in production relative to demand, especially given the shift toward green energy. He suggests that silver's price will rise significantly as the global economy transitions, offering investors substantial opportunities.
The interview touches on geopolitical dynamics, including China's strategic accumulation of gold and its influence on the global monetary system. Carrasco warns against trusting central banks and advocates for individual investors to establish their own "gold standards" to protect wealth.
Finally, Carrasco advises investors to focus on stockpicking within the precious metals sector, emphasizing high-quality producers with strong management and leverage to rising metal prices. He encourages a long-term perspective, positioning oneself to benefit from the coming paradigm shift rather than trying to predict short-term price movements.
Talking Points From This Episode0:00 - Introduction2:10 - Changing Roles4:30 - Currencies Vs. Gold9:14 - Trump & Debt Bubble15:40 - Tariffs & Positioning23:50 - Silver Opportunity26:20 - Silver Supply Deficit30:15 - M&A Activity Strategy34:08 - Gold & Leverage37:11 - Mkt. Volatility Causes39:08 - A Quiet Fed & Inflation45:42 - Lower Dollar US/China48:42 - When to Sell Gold?57:05 - Concluding Thoughts59:00 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/ijcarrascoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/Website: https://www.harbourfrontwealth.comE-Mail: [email protected]
Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.
Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.
Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment stra... -
Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, from Pento Portfolio Strategies. The discussion revolves around the current economic landscape, highlighting the Federal Reserve's challenges in balancing inflation control and recession fears. Pento argues that the Fed is constrained by a "Gordian knot" of conflicting mandates, emphasizing its focus on bailing out banks and managing government debt rather than addressing inflation effectively. He critiques the dual mandate of stable prices and full employment, suggesting that employment rates have little bearing on inflation, which stems from fiat currency devaluation.
Pento also delves into the impact of tariffs, particularly those imposed by former President Trump, noting their role in exacerbating economic instability. While he acknowledges the intent behind these measures—to rebuild the middle class and reduce trade deficits—the lack of clear planning and frequent changes create uncertainty for businesses. This unpredictability complicates financial decision-making, especially for manufacturers considering relocating production.
Pento advocates for a model that considers credit spreads, real interest rates, and financial conditions. He warns against passive investing in market-cap weighted indices like the S&P 500, which concentrates capital in overvalued stocks and amplifies market volatility. Instead, he recommends an active approach, emphasizing short-term bonds, gold, and selective equity exposure.
Pento also discusses the role of gold as a hedge against inflation and economic instability, distinguishing between physical gold (held personally) and liquid paper gold (ETFs and mining stocks). He advises investors to allocate 5% of their net worth to physical gold for safety, with additional exposure to liquid gold based on market conditions.
Finally, Pento addresses the potential for geopolitical conflicts, such as tensions with China, to drive demand for gold. He concludes by highlighting the importance of an active investment model in navigating economic uncertainty, emphasizing that investors cannot rely solely on passive strategies or the hope of market recovery.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:32 - Fed & Economic Numbers2:52 - Tariff & Uncertainties8:02 - Crash & Fed Reactions11:12 - Yields Spiking Meaning14:32 - Demand Into Gold19:38 - Reserves & Rev. Repos21:53 - Uncertainty & Massive Q.E.26:12 - Passive Investments?32:28 - Gold & Rumors of War34:35 - Mining/Gold Investments39:30 - Institutional Interest41:50 - Thoughts on Silver42:30 - 2025 is Exhausting43:26 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: http://pentoport.comE-Mail: [email protected]: https://twitter.com/michaelpento
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network. -
Tom welcomes back Martin Armstrong from Armstrong Economics to explore current global economic trends, geopolitical tensions, and market reactions. Armstrong discusses how governments worldwide are facing declining trust due to progressive agendas, citing examples like Germany's shift toward far-right parties and Europe's struggles with migration.
Armstrong highlights the cyclical nature of political movements, referencing Trump's 2016 victory as a starting point for this global anti-government sentiment. He also touches on free speech restrictions, drawing parallels between historical financial suppression in Europe and today's broader censorship trends.
Regarding U.S.-China trade tensions, Armstrong explains that tariffs are often misunderstood, citing historical context from the 1930s to show they don't cause economic collapses but can lead to trade wars. He critiques media coverage for sensationalism, particularly Bloomberg's recent claims about market corrections, arguing these panic-inducing narratives mislead investors.
Armstrong also delves into Trump's policies, questioning his understanding of general economic and suggesting that lower corporate taxes could boost competitiveness. However, he warns against blaming Trump for broader economic declines, which he attributes to global trends rather than individual leaders.
The discussion shifts to gold's role as a safe haven during geopolitical instability, with Armstrong emphasizing its historical correlation with war and political uncertainty.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - News & Keeping Up5:07 - Confidence in Gov't8:35 - Objectivity & Markets18:17 - Trump Rhetoric & China21:52 - CPI Lies & Obligations23:13 - Trade Negotiations?29:39 - Comparative Advantage39:10 - China & Real Reasons43:30 - Bond Markets & China?46:34 - Trump & Jerome Powell52:55 - Trump Policy Outlook57:30 - U.S. Income Tax1:00:00 - European Depression1:02:10 - Trump Reforms & Peace?1:13:44 - Gold Recent Strength1:16:51 - Gold & Safety Flight1:18:24 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: http://armstrongeconomics.comTwitter: https://x.com/strongeconomicsFacebook: https://facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9
Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.
At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.
Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter.
"In Armstrong's view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia's financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro "will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation," leading to the system's eventual collapse."
His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the public and organizations on the global economic and political environment's underlying trends. -
Tom welcomes back Simon Hunt, an expert on global economics, China, and the copper industry. Hunt discusses the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, driven by Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical ambitions. He explains that these tensions could lead to regional conflicts, with significant implications for global markets and supply chains.
Hunt also explores the broader shift in global power dynamics, highlighting how nations like China, Russia, and Iran are strengthening ties through organizations like BRICS. He warns that U.S.-China trade disputes, including high tariffs on Chinese goods, are causing severe disruptions to global supply chains and manufacturing sectors. These disruptions are expected to lead to a global economic slowdown or recession.
The conversation delves into the potential impact of these developments on financial markets, particularly the value of the dollar, which Hunt suggests may undergo significant changes as countries seek alternative currencies tied to gold. He also discusses copper's role as an economic barometer, predicting price volatility and eventual increases due to supply chain disruptions and long-term demand shifts.
Hunt concludes by emphasizing the uncertainty and chaos that dominate the current geopolitical landscape, urging caution for businesses and investors as they navigate this complex environment. The episode ends with a note on the importance of staying informed about global developments to understand their far-reaching implications.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:55 - Liberation or Demolition3:54 - Iran Sovereignty & Trump8:56 - China & 104% Tariffs16:20 - Trump & Iran Escalation21:50 - Tensions Ukraine/Russia28:20 - U.S. Trillion Defense Budget30:37 - A Tale of Two Dollars34:37 - China Yuan Devaluing38:20 - BRICS Currency?39:30 - China's Econ. Issues47:40 - Global Slowdown & Copper54:11 - Monitor Geopolitics56:44 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Email: [email protected]: https://simon-hunt.com/Substack: https://shss.substack.com
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.
He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company's cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.
He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.
The focus of the company's services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China's economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.
Simon is the author of the "Frontline China Report Service," which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China's economy, politics, and financial outlook.
Simon established this company in January 1996. -
Tom welcomes back John Rubino, Former Wall Street Analyst, Author & Substacker for a discussion on the current economic landscape and its implications for investors. Rubino discusses the end of a credit supercycle, highlighting the risks of hyperinflation, deflation, and stagflation due to global fiat currency systems. He emphasizes the importance of real assets like gold, silver, and energy during potential financial chaos.
Rubino also addresses the role of energy prices, particularly oil, in driving inflation or deflation. He suggests that lower oil prices could lead to a short-term deflationary period, followed by inflationary pressures as central banks respond with low interest rates. This creates uncertainty but opportunities for resilient investments.
The discussion touches on President Trump's policies, including tariffs and reshoring, which could lead to wage inflation and geopolitical tensions. Rubino warns against the risks of negative interest rates and the potential need for a currency reset, possibly returning to a gold standard.
For investors, Rubino recommends focusing on real assets such as precious metals, energy, and farmland. He suggests dollar-cost averaging in gold and silver and cautious investment in mining stocks, particularly mid-tier and explorers with growth potential. Jurisdictional risks, especially in countries like Mexico, are highlighted as critical considerations.
Rubino also stresses building personal resilience through community ties, skill development, and owning productive assets.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Framing This Flation3:49 - Oil's Role & Energy Price9:36 - Deflationary Scenarios16:06 - Zero Rates & Q.E.20:35 - Inherited Problems & Trump22:50 - PMs & Tariff Policies27:04 - Oversold Markets29:28 - Gold Fundamentals31:28 - Gold Silver Ratio33:15 - Silver in a Recession?36:20 - Investment Advisors & Metals40:13 - His Focus in Miners45:46 - Take Profit Guidelines48:10 - Mexican Gov't Policy50:53 - Other Opportunities?55:17 - Staying Resilient57:18 - Wrap Up
Guest LinksSubstack: https://rubino.substack.comBooks: https://tinyurl.com/5buyvy6v
John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022, and now publishes on Substack. -
Tom welcomes back Tim Price, Director at Price Value Partners. The discussion begins around the importance of filtering information in today's overwhelming media landscape. He suggests turning off legacy media and instead seeking alternative sources like Substack or Twitter for deeper insights. Price warns against over-financialization and the risks it poses to economic stability, advocating for a return to fundamental principles such as value investing and staying within one's zone of competence.
He highlights the current geopolitical chaos as a critical moment, noting similarities to past crises like the 1930s. Price critiques Keynesian economics, arguing that treating the economy as a machine fails to account for human behavior. He also discusses the collapse of trust in institutions, particularly after events like Brexit and the Trump presidency, which have led to increased skepticism among voters.
Price underscores the role of gold as a reliable store of value during uncertain times, contrasting it with the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies. He advises investors to focus on long-term strategies, avoid getting spooked by short-term market fluctuations, and resist the urge to follow every financial fad.
Price stresses the importance of emotional discipline in investing, referencing stoicism as a key trait for navigating volatile markets. He also touches on the destructive impact of unaccountability among elites, comparing it to historical precedents that led to societal destabilization.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - News Cycle Avoidance4:50 - Finding & Filtering Info7:42 - Confirmation Bias12:37 - Economic Ivory Towers19:28 - Sapiens - Yuval Harari22:45 - Repeating Cycles & Problems27:46 - Consequential Times33:06 - Fragility & Chaos Theory35:52 - Multiflation & Bad Economics37:34 - Gold Signs & Revolution42:44 - Rumors & Market Reactions48:00 - Age of Unaccountability50:28 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:X: https://x.com/TimPrice1969Website: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/War On Cash: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/war-on-cash/Articles: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/commentaryTim's Podcast: State of the Markets
BooksTim's Book (Amazon): https://www.amazon.ca/Investing-Through-Looking-Glass-Irrational/dp/0857195360
Book Recommendations:180 Degrees (Amazon): http://tinyurl.com/3vjvpnud
Tim Price has worked in the capital markets for over 30 years. A graduate of Christ Church, Oxford, he spent a decade as a bond specialist before going on to serve as Chief Investment Officer at three separate wealth management firms.
Tim has been shortlisted for five successive years in the UK Private Asset Managers Awards program and was a winner in 2005 in the category of Defensive Investing. He is now co-manager of the VT Price Value Portfolio, a fund investing in Benjamin Graham-style value stocks, and specialist value funds, from around the world. He also co-manages bespoke private client portfolios.
Tim writes for MoneyWeek Magazine and The Spectator, and his weekly commentaries are freely available at the Price Value Partners website. - Laat meer zien
