Afleveringen
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Tom welcomes back Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report for a discussion on the record-high prices of gold and silver. St. Angelo suggests these levels for silver could be a new floor as they've historically returned to production costs following price spikes. The average cost of primary silver production is around $26 an ounce, taking taxes and developmental costs into account.
St. Angelo stresses the importance of distinguishing investment demand from industrial demand when analyzing the silver market dynamics. A decade ago, there was a significant silver surplus due to decreased industrial demand which has since reversed with increased investment demand. Industrial demand is expected to consume all available supply, making additional investment demand potentially price-volatile.
Steve explores the impact of energy scarcity and continued money printing on production costs, driving up gold and silver prices due to inflationary pressures. They discuss the possibility of a market correction offering the last chance to buy silver at present rates.
Steve and Tom delve into the relationship between expanding money supply, debt, federal funds rate, and silver price. Looking towards the period leading up to 2025, a market correction is anticipated due to increasing unemployment and possible employment data revisions. Economic weakness could lead to reduced interest rates and more money printing, instigating inflation and purchasing power reduction. However, Commitment of Traders reports may not accurately reflect demand.
The global silver mine supply and output have been declining since 2015, necessitating existing inventories to bridge the deficit. This imbalance could lead to a substantial correction when prices significantly surpass production costs. Concerns about marginal silver supply include transparent and non-transparent inventories, solar industry demand, and copper prices as indicators of industrial demand and potential recession.
Steve discusses the shift from LBMA to ETF silver inventories. Pre-pandemic, there was significant physical buying leading to expanded ETF inventories. However, in 2022, overall LBMA inventories decreased due to Indian purchasing and ETF withdrawals.
Finally, Steve discusses the merits of assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and silver. While some view Bitcoin as a digital counterpart to gold, Steve contends that saving in Bitcoin is not the same as saving in precious metals. This is due to Bitcoin mining causing considerable share dilution and due to the energy costs.
Steve advocates understanding asset worth based on economic progress versus past activity, emphasizing energy's role in asset value, and preparing for future energy realities.
Talking Points From This Episode
Silver's new floor could be around average production cost ($26/oz).
Industrial demand vs investment demand crucial in analyzing silver market dynamics.
Economic instability, the energy cliff, inflation, and supply concerns may lead to significant price volatility.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:22 - New Silver Price Floor3:30 - Miners & All-In Costs5:55 - Energy & Money Supply8:44 - Types of Metal Demand11:35 - Money Printing & Silver15:13 - Purchasing Power & Rates17:06 - Fed Cuts & Corrections21:37 - Utility of COT Reports23:52 - Mine Supply & Output28:44 - Silver & Manufacturing31:54 - Grid Stability & Solar34:40 - LBMA Silver Trends37:06 - Miner Production & Shares40:35 - Dedollarization & Gold47:50 - Dr. Copper & Economy51:34 - Energy & Volatile Mkts.54:13 - Energy, GDP, & Debt55:20 - Federal Deficits Chart57:10 - Trends & Collapse1:00:48 - U.S. Spending & Budget1:02:50 - Bitcoin & Precious Metals1:06:10 - Energy Store of Value1:09:25 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Independent researcher Steve St. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Coleman from Idaho Armored Vaults. They explore current trends and insights in the precious metals markets. With gold and silver reaching record highs, excitement for investors should be palpable, but retail participation remains low due to factors like premiums and negative sentiment. High net worth individuals continue driving demand and the impacts of Indian gold and silver imports and buying activity was also discussed.
The conversation delves into the dynamics between managed money funds and swap dealers, the role of options markets, and the shift from COMEX to ETFs for investment. Bob also examines recent changes in margin requirements by the CME and their potential impact on market trends. Coleman emphasizes the importance of understanding dealer business models and avoiding sensational and fear-based reasons for buying precious metals. He warned against manipulative dealers, inflating prices through social media tactics, and advises careful reading of storage agreements.
Coleman further discusses physical precious metals demand from high net worth individuals due to tax planning, estate planning, counterparty risk concerns, and potential election policies. However, lease rates pulling back and increasing COMEX inventories indicates lower physical demand. Coleman also cautioned investors about overly sensational or fear-based reasons for buying precious metals. Investors should be cautious of agreements that move liability to the client. He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for market volatility, consider taking profits or protective measures, and understanding spot dealer practices.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:14 - Market Status & Highs6:52 - Shorts & Metals Demand12:00 - P.M. ETF Flows/Demand17:05 - Demand Drivers19:04 - Lease Rates & Premiums24:02 - Compare Prices & Premiums29:04 - User Agreement Red Flags33:03 - Sensationalism & Fear40:15 - Selling Back Metal44:00 - ETFS & Metal Claims49:44 - Elections & Narratives53:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
High net worth individuals are driving precious metals demand despite low retail participation due to premiums and negative sentiment.
Understand dealer business models to avoid manipulative practices and sensational reasons for buying precious metals.
Tax reductions, elections, and geopolitical events significantly influence precious metals market trends.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security. -
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Luke Gromen, the founder and president of FFTT (Forest for the Trees). They discuss the implications of the recent 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed and its potential impact on the US fiscal situation. According to Gromen, this cut signifies growing concerns from the Fed about the US true interest expense reaching an unprecedented level since the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed's two options are either allowing true interest expense to crowd out global dollar markets or cutting rates to alleviate it and stimulate receipts with a weaker dollar and higher inflation.
Gromen also mentions four destabilizing events: oil prices exceeding $80 per barrel, an increased US deficit outlook, the Japanese 10-year yield breaking through, and a politically disruptive event occurring in August 2023, which led to a US downgrade. With tighter financial conditions for the private sector but loosest for the US government despite interest rate sensitivity, Gromen predicts a potential gap between the Fed funds rate and two-year discounts, suggesting a recession instead of a soft landing.
Luke also touches upon the connection between treasury receipts and recessions, where they usually decrease significantly during a typical economic downturn. With the US already experiencing an 8% deficit of GDP, a potential recession could push it up to 13-14%, making the country less attractive for long-term debt investment, potentially leading to inflation and economic instability.
Gromen believes that large investors or 'whales' are influencing financial markets by buying gold, stocks, and selling Treasuries in anticipation of the Fed's response to positive real rates. The scenario is likened to a movie where smaller traders react month-to-month while whales steer the economic 'Titanic'. The text also outlines two potential bearish scenarios: austerity measures from the US government causing a downturn in all markets or capital controls and taxation driving investors to seek safe havens outside of the US.
The ongoing debate about introducing a sovereign wealth fund by both Trump and Biden administrations is discussed, with concerns over its feasibility given the current financial situation. Instead of running a surplus, governments plan to borrow money and invest it in assets, creating a 'sovereign wealth fund with an asterisk'. The speaker also explores alternative solutions like increasing spending or rebuilding domestic production capability but acknowledges that someone must ultimately own the $35 trillion in US debt.
Luke discusses various economic ideas and scenarios impacting the global financial system, including the potential for revaluing gold mechanically to inject more money into the US Treasury or raising its price significantly to invest trillions into the Treasury General Account. The significance of a decreasing Baby Boomer entitlement spend due to an increase in mortality rates and China's approach of allowing the yuan to float against gold are also touched upon. Throughout, there is an emphasis on understanding trade-offs and making informed decisions based on economic realities.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - Feds 50-Basis Point Cut2:47 - 4-Destabilizing Things5:26 - Discounting Recession?10:15 - US Debt Buyers17:04 - Yellen & Stealth QE?19:47 - Yield Curve & Signals21:33 - Refinancing The Debt23:52 - Debt Oscillations25:52 - Math Doesn't Care29:50 - Political Decisions34:40 - Noise & Whales41:14 - Equity Bear Scenarios46:55 - Sovereign 'Debt' Fund50:40 - Grow Out of Debt?55:57 - Possible Solutions?59:05 - China & Dollar1:01:10 - BRICS & US Strategy1:07:18 - Gold/Oil Proxy1:11:30 - Carry Trade Unwind1:13:52 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/lukegromenWebsite: https://fftt-llc.com/
Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, -
Tom welcomes back Richard Duncan, economist and author of 'The Money Revolution.' The discussion revolves around the implications of Duncan's latest work, which challenges conventional economic theories, particularly those rooted in Austrian economics. Their last conversation was over two years ago.
Duncan begins by recapping the ideas presented in his book, including how the unexpected response to the 2008 financial crisis, characterized by trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus and monetary expansion, did not result in high inflation despite concerns from Austrian economists. He also highlights the shift away from a gold standard and its consequences, such as altered constraints on money creation, government borrowing, and trade deficits.
Furthermore, Duncan discusses the impact of these changes, including increasing income inequality and implications for inflation and wealth growth. The conversation also touches upon the economic environment shaped by the pandemic and its unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, which led to high inflation rates.
Despite concerns about high inflation, the economic recovery led to significant wealth growth, enough to pay off the national debt with some money left over.
They discuss the implications of the stimulus and the lingering effects it continues to have on the economy. Richard is a proponent of establishing a sovereign wealth fund for the United States to finance investments in new industries and technologies, such as artificial intelligence, nanotech, biotech, fusion, quantum computing, and genetic engineering. The U.S. currently invests half as much in research and development compared to decades ago, leading to a slowdown in productivity and economic growth.
Additionally, Richard raises concerns about potential market vulnerability from lower interest rates due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade and inflated asset prices in the U.S. He emphasizes the significance of establishing a sovereign wealth fund for the United States and encourages listeners to visit his website, Richard Dunkin Economics dot com, for more information on economic events and their potential market impacts.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:02 - Fed & US Money Creation12:40 - The Pandemic Inflation17:33 - Growth & Technology22:05 - Pandemic Choice & Wealth32:01 - Recent Inflation Causes42:14 - Sovereign Wealth Funds53:28 - Buyers of U.S. Debt?1:03:35 - Dollar Reserve Status1:08:24 - Fed Rate Cut Decision1:12:35 - Yen Carry Trade1:16:09 - Wealth/Income Ratio1:19:18 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/Twitter: https://x.com/papermoneyecon
Newsletter Offer:https://richardduncaneconomics.comHit subscribe and enter coupon code 'Value' For a 50% discount.
Richard Duncan is the author of four books analyzing the causes and the effects of the economic crises that have brought the global economy to the brink of collapse during recent decades.
The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (John Wiley & Sons, 2003, updated 2005), predicted the global economic disaster that began in 2008 with extraordinary accuracy. It was an international bestseller. The Corruption of Capitalism: A strategy to re-balance the global economy and restore sustainable growth (CLSA Books, 2009) described the long series of US policy mistakes responsible for the Crisis of 2008. The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (John Wiley & Sons, 2012) introduced an important new analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explained all aspects of the global economic crisis that began in 2008.
His latest book is The Money Revolution: How to Finance the Next American Century (John Wiley & Sons, 2022).
Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the Worl... -
Tom welcomes back experienced trader and creator of ProGoldTrader, Drew Rathgeber to explore issues within the Gold and Silver industry. Drew shares his industry journey, starting in spot markets 20 years ago and transitioning to futures in 2006. He emphasizes regulation's importance, particularly for consumer protections and audits.
They discuss problems like excessive spreads exploiting elderly clients and the need for education. Drew shares his views on social media influencers and their good and bad aspects. The conversation also covers spot markets versus regulated futures markets.
Drew talks about Monex, a company offering the Atlas precious metals investment program. This financing mechanism targeted unsophisticated investors and generated revenue through high fees on trades, resulting in many millions in losses for customers.
They discuss investing in physical gold versus futures contracts, with smaller investments favoring physical gold due to absence of counterparty risk. The conversation touches upon issues surrounding precious metals investments using retirement funds, specifically Roth IRAs and 401K programs. He stresses the importance of understanding spreads and fees in these transactions.
Drew discusses a retired lady and why she was disqualified from opening a futures trading account. Drew emphasizes the importance of understanding risks involved in trading, especially with leverage positions. They briefly touch on contract sizes and risk management strategies, including removing market and volatility risks, using options for downside protection, and being cautious during uncertain times like Fed announcements. He stresses the importance of staying informed and managing risks based on individual comfort levels.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:57 - Trust & Drew's Background4:18 - Regulations & Risks9:22 - Changes in PM Industry14:39 - History at Monex19:42 - Fractional Metal Programs?23:45 - Futures Markets & Leverage27:40 - Physical Delivery & Spreads37:08 - Other Programs & Cautions42:55 - Fraud Risks & Criteria47:12 - Futures Contract Sizes50:03 - Managing Risk52:03 - Investor Behavior 202456:40 - Lessons Learned1:01:42 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Drew Rathgeber emphasizes the importance of consumer protections and education in the Gold and Silver industry.
He highlights the risks and benefits of investing in precious metals through spot markets versus regulated futures markets.
Drew shares warnings about high-fee investment schemes that like to 'churn' naive investors.
Guest Links:Website: https://progoldtrader.comEmail: [email protected] Online: https://progoldtrader.com/open-an-account/
Drew Rathgeber got his start trading spot precious metals at one of the nation's largest bullion dealers in Newport Beach, CA in 2004. Then transitioned to futures in 2006, specializing in precious metals. Now is the owner and president of ProGoldTrader.com, which specializes in trading software and execution designed just for bullion traders.
ProGoldTrader.com is a dba of ProFuturesTrader.com
TRADING FUTURES, OPTIONS ON FUTURES, AND FUTURES SPREADS INVOLVE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL TRADERS AND/OR INVESTORS. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ACCOUNTS CAN AND MAY LOSE MONEY. ONLY GENUINE RISK CAPITAL, MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE, SHOULD BE USED. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Gary Savage, a retired entrepreneur and commodity trader, about the current state and future prospects of metals markets, specifically focusing on gold and silver. Savage underscores the importance of considering larger time frames for understanding gold market trends, emphasizing a potential 13-year base pattern in gold and impending breakout. He anticipates gold prices to reach at least $7,000 and potentially $10,000 due to this significant base size. Silver's volatility could lead to larger proportional moves, with expectations of it reaching new all-time highs towards the end of the bull market.
Savage differentiates gold and silver markets based on distinct fundamental drivers, discussing the potential implications of the war cycle, inflation, and recent dollar trend following the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting. He encourages investors to remain attentive for a significant move upwards in metals and advises buying physical gold and silver before the anticipated breakout.
The discussion covers the significance of COT reports as a tool. Gary highlights the potential leverage from miners, but ultimately suggests that physical precious metals could yield greater gains in the long run. He delves into the impact of the upcoming FOMC meeting and the potential for a recession.
Mr. Savage shares his belief in the precious metals sector's potential benefits due to the significant gold breakout, encouraging listeners to maintain a broad perspective despite market fluctuations. He dismisses energy, uranium, Bitcoin, and the stock market for investment purposes, favoring precious metals amid geopolitical tensions that could lead to a possible World War III. Savage concludes by urging listeners to stay focused on the big picture.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Big Picture on Metals3:00 - Comparing Silver & Gold5:12 - Commodities & Metals Diverge6:37 - Dollar Fundamentals8:26 - Gold Charts & Cycles12:19 - Silver Chart & Outlook15:22 - Trades & Timelines19:00 - COT Reports Uses?20:18 - Silver Miners & Leverage22:40 - Dollar & Other Currencies24:23 - Fed & Recession?28:03 - War Cycle & Elections30:00 - Regression Analysis33:50 - Metals Sector Divergence35:35 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gary Savage highlights a potential 13-year gold base pattern and impending breakout, expecting prices to reach at least $7,000.
Silver's volatility could lead to larger proportional moves, reaching new all-time highs towards the end of the bull market.
Significant move upwards in metals, invest in physical gold and silver before the anticipated breakout, and maintain a long-term perspective.
Guest LinksTwitter: https:/twitter.com/garysavage1Blog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videosWebsite: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/login/
Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far).
Gary's renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold, Gold-Eagle, Investing, 321Gold, Keyport, SilverSeek, TFMetalsReport, FuturesMag, ResourceInvestor, Silver-Phoenix, BayStreetBlog, BeforeItsNews, ETFDailyNews, TalkMarkets, JuniorMiningAnalyst, MarketOracle.UK, SafeHaven, GoldSeek, Mining, -
Tom welcomes back Bob Moriarty to engage in a discussion about global conflicts and their potential impact on world affairs. Moriarty raises concerns over the United States' involvement in Ukraine and Israel, as well as the possibility of China invading Taiwan. He emphasizes the critical nature of these events and expresses his belief in the imminence of such conflicts, which could involve multiple nations.
Moriarty questions America's preparedness for war on multiple fronts and criticizes its past military interventions. Additionally, he discusses the importance of intelligence reports and geopolitical factors shaping world events. The conversation touches upon the upcoming US election, with both individuals expressing concern over potential chaos and uncertainty surrounding it.
Moriarty advocates for owning gold as an insurance policy against economic instability. Moriarty discusses investing in gold and mining stocks, focusing on the historical premium of platinum over gold, volatility of silver, and potential opportunities in junior silver miners.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:56 - Risks & Coming Volatility4:40 - Conflicts & Reports10:10 - China, Taiwan, & Logistics13:35 - Elections & Conflict Risks17:55 - Crises & Many Black Swans21:40 - Totalitarian Moves24:01 - Implications for Gold25:40 - Mining Equities & Value28:10 - Miners During Rate Cuts29:49 - Fundamentals Vs. FOMO32:04 - Inflation Waves & Cash?35:38 - Commodities Undervalued36:52 - The Chart39:20 - Finding Great Miners41:57 - Silver & Returns45:14 - Why Platinum?49:14 - Be Prudent & Prepared50:33 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Moriarty voices concerns over U.S. involvement in Ukraine, Israel, and China's potential invasion of Taiwan.
He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for multiple front wars and criticizes past U.S. military interventions.
Moriarty advocates for owning gold as an economic stability insurance and discusses investing opportunities in gold and mining stocks.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comWebsite: http://www.321energy.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3
Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back consultant Simon Hunt to delve into the distinctions between Western-oriented and impartial perspectives in global analysis. Their conversation evolves around the potential threats to the West's global supremacy from the BRICS collective, spearheaded by China and Russia. This power transition could result in a loss of control over events and even the likelihood of war should diplomacy falter. The discussion also encompasses America's historic aim to fragment Russia, recent geopolitical strains, and potential clashes in Israel and Iran.
Simon discusses the ongoing geopolitical stressors and their consequences for financial markets. Their discourse centers around the US-Russia confrontation, the influence of the deep state or neoconservatives on foreign policy, and the ramifications for oil prices, copper markets, and US equities and bonds. Simon posits that Russia's reaction to Western antagonisms will be restrained but impactful, potentially triggering a substantial increase in inflation and a readjustment of monetary policy. The conversation also explores the potential repercussions of crises in Ukraine and the Middle East on the global economy.
Mr. Hunt discusses the motivations behind central banks and nations, specifically China, amassing vast quantities of gold as a safeguard against prospective currency devaluation and financial instability. He also voices his opinions on China's housing market collapse being an intended move by the government to lessen local governments' indebtedness and establish a foundation for future centralized fiscal and monetary policies if war occurs. Simon proposes that China is preparing for potential economic difficulties while maintaining a prudent stance in its fiscal and monetary policy.
Simon explores various economic matters, such as demographic problems in both the US and China, the legitimacy of economic statistics, and his views on market trends over the next few years. He suggests that the US economy might be experiencing a recession based on authentic data like deflated retail sales and employment numbers, true inflation rates, and genuine unemployment figures, which he believes are more precise indicators of economic activity than formal GDP or CPI numbers. Simon asserts that numerous countries, including the US and much of Europe, are either in a recession or heading towards one. He also expresses apprehension over governments manipulating information and the increasing mistrust among people due to heightened awareness. In terms of market predictions, Simon anticipates a steep decline in global equity markets and base metals by early next year, followed by inflation and a surge in long-term interest rates, culminating in a collapse of the financial system by 2028.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Thought West Vs. East4:22 - Provoking Russia10:16 - Israel & Middle East16:08 - Incentives & Sensibility19:17 - Risks with Russia21:55 - Market Outlook Long-Term28:44 - C.B./Smart Money Exiting30:30 - China Use For Gold33:34 - China - Housing Sector37:50 - U.S. Demographic Issues39:37 - Metrics & Fudgification45:07 - Six Month Market Outlook46:54 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The BRICS group, led by China and Russia, poses a significant challenge to the West's global dominance, potentially leading to diplomatic clashes or even war.
Central banks, particularly China, are amassing gold as a hedge against currency devaluation and economic instability.
Simon Hunt anticipates a steep decline in global equity markets and base metals, followed by inflation and a surge in long-term interest rates.
Guest Links:Email: [email protected]: https://simon-hunt.com/
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961, -
In this episode, your host Tom Bodrovics invites back Don Durrett, author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss the economic conditions shaping gold's performance. Don highlights the U.S.'s weakening economy and global uncertainty as catalysts for gold's growth. He believes that a floor for gold exists at $2,200 due to its inverse relationship with the economy.
Don touches upon the Federal Reserve's challenges in managing inflation and interest rates, pointing to unprecedented debt levels. He voices concerns about the reliability of economic data, questioning their accuracy and suggesting consumer spending might be weaker than presented. He predicts a potential 50 basis point rate cut due to signs of slowing growth.
The conversation also addresses market volatility caused by Japan's potential interest rate hike and its impact on the yen carry trade. Don raises concerns about imminent challenges in the bond market, which holds more significance than the stock market, as credit could get turned off when countries reach a point of no return. He advises investing in gold and silver as alternatives during economic instability and predicts significant price increases for these metals.
Don also anticipates that gold miners will benefit from a rate cutting cycle due to their improved margins during recessions.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:07 - Gold & Recent Fed Policy5:46 - Trends and Gold8:29 - Fed Cuts & History14:10 - 70s Inflation or Deflation17:20 - Metrics & Data Revisions22:37 - BOJ & Western Volatility26:20 - Political Extremes32:15 - Asset Tops & Metals36:40 - Debt Servicing & GDP40:00 - Rate Cuts & the Miners45:37 - Insider Activity?47:33 - Share Dilution & Red Flags54:38 - Fall Market Direction1:01:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold's growth influenced by U.S.'s weakening economy & global uncertainty, with floor at $2,200 due to inverse relationship with economy.
Federal Reserve's dilemma managing inflation & interest rates due to historic debt levels.
Concerns about economic data reliability & potential 50 basis point rate cut as signs of slowing growth emerge.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.com/Free Trial: https://www.goldstockdata.com/freetrialSubstack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articlesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com. -
Tom welcomes back Nick Giambruno, founder of The Financial Underground and editor-in-chief of its premium investment research publication. Nick criticizes central planning and the Fed's role in managing inflation, arguing that central banks, cannot effectively manage interest rates due to their antithesis to free markets.
Giambruno deemed the steepest rate-hiking cycle by the Fed to combat decades-high inflation futile because raising rates to a level impacting inflation would bankrupt the US government. He considers claims of victory over inflation propaganda, as essential prices like electricity bills and food hadn't reached pre-pandemic levels.
Nick touches on the potential politicization of Federal Reserve monetary policy ahead of elections and the influence of politics on its actions. The discussion covers escalating debt and interest expenses, now the largest federal budget item, trapping the United States in a cycle of currency debasement.
Giambruno advises investing in hard assets like gold and precious metals as a long-term savings vehicle, and suggests considering gold mining stocks to speculate on fiat currency debasement. He favors royalty companies over individual mining stocks due to reduced risk.
The potential impact of the BRICS creating their own trading currency on the US dollar and the changing global order was discussed, suggesting a developing multipolar world where other countries take larger roles. Giambruno believs we are in a chaotic period, likening it to historical periods of power division, and advises individuals to consider alternatives like Latin America as a potential refuge.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Fed & Economic State5:00 - Politics, Inflation & CPI8:55 - Debt, Interest, & Debasement10:34 - Dollar Collapse Endgame18:11 - Asset Alternatives19:45 - Gold Miners & Rate Cuts21:12 - Commodities in General22:40 - Miners & Royalties24:25 - Lack of Understanding29:14 - Short Term Gambling31:25 - BRICS Trend & Conflict35:18 - Historic Parallels37:23 - Have a Backup Plan39:20 - West Political Shift?41:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Central banks, including the Fed, cannot effectively manage interest rates due to their being the antithesis of free markets.
Investing in hard assets like gold and precious metals is advised as a long-term savings vehicle.
The interview touched on potential politicization of Federal Reserve monetary policy and the influence of political considerations on its actions.
Guest Links:Website: https://financialunderground.comTwitter:https://x.com/FinancialUnderWebsite: https://nickgiambruno.com
Nick Giambruno is a renowned speculator and international investor. He's the Founder of The Financial Underground and Editor-in-Chief of its premium investment research publication Contra Speculator.
Nick travels the world searching for lucrative investment opportunities in overlooked markets.
Nick specializes in identifying Big Picture geopolitical and economic trends ahead of the crowd. His approach to investing also focuses on profiting from distortions in the market. This includes identifying unfounded pessimism in beaten-up industries, which creates opportunities for enormous gains.
He writes about geopolitics, value investing in crisis markets, Bitcoin, international banking, second passports, international diversification, and surviving a financial collapse, among other topics.
Nick has traveled to over 60 countries and lived in six of them. He formerly worked in the Middle East with a Dubai-based investment bank.
He has been featured in The Economist, Forbes, Zero Hedge, Seeking Alpha, The Herald of Zimbabwe, The Keiser Report, MoneyWeek, Casey Research, International Man, The Crux, Gold Newsletter, The Jet Setter Show, Lew Rockwell.com, The Tom Woods Show, International Living Magazine, Wall St for Main St, Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing, AntiWar.com, The Power & Market Report, -
Tom welcomes back the Managing Partner of the CPM Group, Jeffrey Christian to discuss the Fed, Gold and the current economic realities of U.S. and the globe. Jeff shares his views on the Fed aiming for a long-term inflation average of around 2%, with fluctuations accepted between 1.3% and 2.8%. He asserts that while the target remains unchanged, the Fed is being more explicit about it. He speculates on the reasons why inflation is "acceptable" to the Fed.
Jeffrey discusses the likely September interest rate reduction and potential surprises. He anticipates a quarter-point decrease followed by further evaluations in November and December due to recessionary fears.
Jeff discusses the US economy's influence on the global stage, the significance of the upcoming US election, the importance of data reliability in today's digital age, and the drivers of gold and silver prices.
Central banks' roles in gold demand, with decreasing holdings by developed countries and emerging economies buying for monetary reserves, are also explored. The history of non-alignment among developing countries and the uncertain future direction of BRICS is touched upon.
Jeff explains the drivers of long-term silver prices including investment and industrial fabrication demands, with relatively low net investment demand leading to unremarkable price performance. Industrial demand for platinum and palladium is substantial but not expected to surge significantly. Fear acts as a catalyst for investments into these metals although there primary use is industrial rather than having a monetary function.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:08 - Fed Anticipation & CPI3:25 - Acceptable Inflation?5:33 - A Fed Sept. Surprise?8:50 - Recession Risk & Fed10:00 - Global Effects13:04 - 2024 Politics & Markets16:23 - U.S. Policy & Regulations21:30 - Ignorance & Progress24:12 - Gold & Silver Outlook28:43 - Long-Term Thoughts36:25 - Dollar Vs. Gold Demand40:50 - BRICS Alliance45:47 - Drivers for Silver49:13 - Platinum & Palladium52:54 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Fed's fall rate expectations and possibility of a surprise.
Global economic outlook and what to expect around the election cycle.
Gold's global role and the limited monetary role of other precious metals.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLCWebsite: https://www.cpmgroup.com/Questions Email: [email protected] Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos
Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.
He has advised many of the world's largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments. -
Tom welcomes back, Parallel Mike. Mike is the host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares finance, geopolitics and personal liberty content. The conversation begins with a thought-provoking discussion about the global ramifications of the United States' current monetary and fiscal instability. As the world's leading power with its reserve currency, military might, and cultural influence, American financial or fiscal upheaval could ignite kinetic, cyber, and psychological conflicts worldwide.
Mike elucidates the intricate relationships between national power structures and influential financial entities. He issues a grave warning concerning the potential consequences if America faces a significant financial crisis or recession, stressing the significance of acknowledging societal drivers fueling long-term currency devaluation and consumerist attitudes.
Mike scrutinized the distribution of funds during the post-pandemic economic relief package, with a considerable portion allocated to the wealthy class but many individuals receiving stimulus checks. The ensuing savings resulted in inflation that didn't fully manifest until later, leading to price spikes in luxury sectors like watches and yachts. Now spent, these markets are witnessing declines.
Mike asserts that the global economy, especially Europe, is undergoing a significant downturn, marked by widespread corporate layoffs and potential employment consequences. Jerome Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Fed meeting suggests an upcoming rate cut, which could impact the upcoming presidential election. However, rate cuts alone may not revive the economy, potentially leading to additional monetary stimulus.
Mike expresses concerns about escalating interest rates jeopardizing bank balance sheets. He is critical of pervasive accounting deceptions in the financial sector, cautioning of a potential implosion if public trust is eroded. Gold has historically served as a protective shield against collapsed financial systems by major players holding gold reserves as insurance.
Mike endorses value investing in the current market and advises against impending downturns leading to liquidity crises and widespread sell-offs. He suggests maintaining a portion of ones portfolio for speculation and emphasizes understanding risks in investment strategies. Despite the risks, he also points out historical instances where commodities delivered multiple cycles of returns following initial liquidity booms and inflations. He concludes by advocating investments beyond mere financial assets, such as health, relationships, and community.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:58 - Global Dependency on U.S.6:25 - Saviour Syndrome?12:33 - Pass The Debt Parcel20:39 - Deficits & Delinquencies27:24 - Saving The System33:56 - Banks & Higher Rates38:25 - Possible Solutions47:09 - Riskiest Assets57:58 - Russia in Contrast1:01:55 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
American financial instability could spark global conflicts: Mike warns of potential consequences.
Mike highlights pandemic wealth distribution issues and how they drove inflation in goods afteerwards.
Mike discusses implications of Jerome Powell's dovish stance, potential economic downturn, and the role of gold in protecting assets.
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYt8UcqG2wvkehnmiF_9AkwTwitter: https://twitter.com/parallel_mikePatreon: https://patreon.com/parallelsystemsBook Reference: https://thegreattaking.com/
Mike is a precious metal's investor, organic farmer and host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares content relating to finance, geopolitics and personal liberty. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Doomberg, author of the Doomberg Substack, for a discussion on the science hype cycle and its impact on investments. The science hype cycle refers to the persistent overhyping of scientific innovations, such as solid state batteries, fusion, room temperature superconductors, and cancer cures, which often take decades to materialize. Despite progress, solid state batteries face inherent challenges due to safety concerns and complexity. Samsung's recent announcement of a silver-intensive solid state battery may boost silver demand but diminishes its near-term relevance for investors.
Next, the conversation shifts to the automobile industry, focusing on plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). PHEVs reduce regional gasoline consumption efficiently, but China's competitive edge in manufacturing affordable cars, driven by access to intellectual property, lower labor costs, and less stringent regulations, poses a significant challenge. Consumers favor affordable PHEVs over luxury BEVs, believed to be saturated in demand.
The discussion touches upon the carbon footprint of battery production for electric vehicles and the importance of recycling them. The focus should be on addressing pollution rather than just reducing carbon emissions. China's lenient environmental regulations give it an edge in industries like magnesium production.
Doomberg advocates continued investment in nuclear, natural gas, and existing hydroelectric power due to their reliability and suitability. He dismisses fusion reactors as unnecessary distractions from proven nuclear technologies. Small modular reactors and thorium reactors hold potential but lag behind large modular reactors, which offer known designs and predictable supply chains.
The conversation addresses the Russia-Ukraine conflict's implications for energy markets, Russia's role as a nuclear superpower, and the consequences of NATO involvement. Doomberg expresses concerns about the conflict's outcome and its impact on gold as a neutral reserve asset amidst geopolitical tensions and the bifurcation of the world into G7 and BRICS. He concludes by advocating for thoughtful consideration of military conflicts and their consequences, and introspection about the wisdom of engaging in war.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:08 - Science Hype Cycle4:19 - Battery Lifespan, & Silver8:30 - EV Costs, China, & Hybrids13:37 - Western EV Demand14:49 - Carbon Use Comparisons17:03 - Pollution & Carbon22:13 - Efficiency & Reuse26:56 - West GRID Solutions30:00 - U.S. Election Outcomes35:06 - New Energy Tech37:35 - Fusion Technology?39:30 - SMR & Thorium41:05 - Nuclear Proliferation44:50 - Russia & Ukraine48:30 - Global Bifurcation & Gold50:52 - Dollar & Military Spending52:53 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Science innovations often face long development timelines and are overhyped. Examples include solid state batteries and fusion reactors.
China's competitive edge in automobile manufacturing poses challenges for electric vehicle markets.
Continued investment in reliable energy sources like nuclear, natural gas, and hydroelectric power is advocated.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergTWebsite: https://doomberg.substack.com
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems. -
Tom welcomes Garrett Goggin, a seasoned financial analyst with expertise in trading and a strong emphasis on alternative assets like gold and silver. Goggin expresses his views on the current economic climate marked by the U.S. dollar's value erosion due to inflation and escalating debt. He regards gold and silver as reliable stores of value for future decades.
Goggin further explores the significance of the yield curve inversion, which he believes signals an impending recession and market correction. In past instances, gold has doubled in value following a yield curve inversion and a subsequent recession. He anticipates that this trend will continue, possibly leading to another gold price doubling. Institutions are predicted to invest in the gold sector as its performance continues to improve.
The conversation touches on the gold market's current dynamics, including the growing interest from investors that is not reflected in GLD shares outstanding but is visible in the growth of silver miners. The demand for silver exceeds production and existing stocks, potentially leading to a deficit and an escalating price surge.
Central banks' role in gold prices and their correlation with rate cuts during economic downturns are also discussed. Goggin predicts that as inflation persists and economies decelerate, gold will remain a valuable hedge against economic turmoil.
Garrett shares his philosophy for constructing a portfolio in gold and silver, focusing on analyzing companies rather than historical ratios or charts, emphasizing the significance of high-grade deposits and competent management. He advocates investing in inflation protection machines like royalties due to their fixed costs, minimal management, and potential for exploration success without being impacted by cost inflation. Smaller explorers and developers that can generate significant value through successful drill holes are also suggested.
The conversation delves into the characteristics of mining companies that make them attractive takeover targets, with a focus on high-grade projects, low cost operations, and cash generation. Royalties are highlighted for their exploration upside and potential to significantly increase shareholder value over time.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - Background & Alt Assets2:05 - Market/Economy Overview3:44 - Recession & Market Crash4:50 - Gold Thoughts & Momentum9:13 - Inflation Outlook10:57 - Gold During Rate Cuts11:36 - Silvers Performance?16:17 - Portfolio Balance19:57 - Qualities in Miners25:14 - Upsides to Royalties?30:02 - Takeover Targets31:52 - Royalty Structures34:45 - Technology & Mining39:43 - A Gold Top Looks Like?43:00 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://Goldenportfolio.comX: https://x.com/GarrettGoggin
Garrett Goggin's career began in 1995 at the New York Stock Exchange, where he filled orders amidst the specialist booths. The NYSE was the economic heartbeat, its vibrant atmosphere pulsing with price adjustments following breaking news. Post-NYSE, Goggin joined a derivative arbitrage firm based in the UK and Ireland, marking his introduction to this niche trading strategy.
However, his fascination lay in gold, silver, and commodities. In contrast to the unpredictability of longer-term investments, these markets offered a sense of control. Goggin's conviction was that mastery of commodity markets wasn't contingent on luck but knowledge.
His quest for gold and silver took him across continents, visiting numerous mines and conversing with their overseers. For over fifteen years, he partnered with esteemed research entities Gold Stock Analyst and Stansberry Research, serving as a precious metals analyst.
A respected figure at prestigious gold conferences such as the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada's (PDAC) Toronto event and Denver Gold Show Europe in Zurich, Goggin is a preferred resource for leading gold and silver developers due to his insightful research.
... -
Tom welcomes back economist John Williams, the founder of Shadow Government Statistics to explore the manipulation and misrepresentation of economic data by government institutions like the Fed and Treasury. Williams expresses concerns over the intentional distortion of inflation and GDP statistics, which can deceive the public and impact their decisions, potentially harming the economy and markets. A notable example is the strategic petroleum reserve being drained to artificially lower gasoline prices before elections. Accurate data, Williams asserts, is vital for informed policymaking and avoiding exacerbated economic issues.
Inaccurate inflation statistics are in part leading to financial hardships for many households. Despite this issue's potential political significance, no candidate has addressed it. He also explores the consequences of this discrepancy and its impact on consumer sentiment, suggesting that a future political campaign platform focusing on this could gain substantial support. Conversing about the potential economic pain or increased debt needed to rectify these issues, Williams acknowledges the challenges but stresses their necessity for improving conditions for the average American.
Williams raises concerns about the reliability of reported GDP figures, arguing they are heavily manipulated and bear little connection to real economic conditions. He highlights the disparity between reported GDP and underlying economic indicators like retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts, attributing this gap to political constructs and the Fed's money supply expansion. Williams warns of potential risks from an inflationary recession or depression and encourages individuals to protect themselves by holding physical assets like gold, real estate, or other hard assets. He concludes that average citizens should be concerned about economic instability arising from these factors.
John suggests that a recession already began during the pandemic and consumers should use common sense when evaluating government information.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Real Statistics & Fed13:03 - Wages & Inflation14:25 - Party Politics & Fixes18:28 - Political Will & Debt24:52 - Gold & Inflation28:19 - Real GDP/GDI Numbers36:56 - Consumer Sentiment43:22 - Consistent Benchmark?44:57 - SPR Importance & Need?50:53 - Reality is Hitting Now52:42 - Federal Debt & Interest55:12 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Williams warns of manipulated economic data affecting public decisions and markets.
Williams emphasizes the financial impact of inaccurate inflation statistics on average Americans.
GDP figures are criticized as heavily manipulated, with gold suggested as a hedge against potential instability.
Guest Links:Website: https://shadowstats.comE-Mail: [email protected]
Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back David Haggith, author of the Daily Doom Substack. The conversation centers around the current economic situation in the U.S. and repercussions on the Federal Reserve policies. Last summer, David predicted continued inflationary pressures from factors like housing costs with a one-year lag time, oil prices, and producer prices. Despite the Fed's potential intentions to cut interest rates, David cautions about the possibility of another inflation spike, compelling the Fed to reconsider their decision.
David argues that markets misjudged the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates based on ambiguous comments from Chair Jerome Powell. Though Powell didn't signal a change in policy, markets believed there would be a pivot due to vague statements. This misunderstanding led to significant market fluctuations and the dissolution of the Fed's tightening efforts, necessitating further tightening by the Fed.
David also discusses the impacts on the economy during the covid period and impact on labor metrics. He believes that labor remains 'tight' due to a substantial drop in laborers as a result, leading to production issues. Despite some recovery, the labor pool has not returned to its previous trend line, signaling ongoing labor supply problems.
Mr. Haggith also touches upon potential market implications during the election and compares the current situation with the dot-com bust in 2000, where AI stocks were overvalued based on future potential. David warns of a possible correction similar to what occurred then. Regarding the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, David discusses the potential impact on oil prices and the challenges of de-dollarization.
David also explores strategies for safeguarding assets during uncertain economic times, suggesting alternatives to keeping money in banks or dollars due to risks of inflation and bank troubles. He advocates for gold as a store of wealth but acknowledges its limitations. Other recommendations include building skills, focusing on relationships, and preparing for transactions if locked out of central bank digital currencies.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Fed Resolve & Pivots10:00 - Lag Effects & Landings13:24 - Sahm Recession Rule & GDP16:50 - Covid Era & Economy20:34 - Consumer Debt & Recession22:26 - Market Volatility & Elections27:00 - Comparisons & Conflicts34:52 - Unknowns & Dedollarization38:00 - Dollar & Global Trade39:57 - Yen Carry Trade41:10 - Defensive Measures44:44 - Gold & Other Metals49:07 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Further potential inflation spikes despite Fed's rate cut intentions due to lingering economic pressures.
How markets misinterpreted Powell's statements, resulting in market volatility and necessitating further Fed tightening.
Why labor supply issues persist as a result of the Covid Period, affecting production and labor metrics.
Guest Links:Substack: https://www.thedailydoom.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/EconomicRecess
David Haggith is the publisher/editor-in-chief of the Daily Doom Substack. David began the Great Recession Blog back in 2007 when he realized the U.S. housing market was on the verge of collapse. He urged family to sell their homes near the peak of the market. He decided the world needed a voice that would present more insightful commentary on the economic news of the day than what had been available anywhere in the mainstream media. Furthermore, he was amazed that so few people we're able to see through the nonsense. He doesn't associate with any political party, as politics keep people focused on blaming the other side and not recognizing the flaws on theirs. He's made a number of successful market calls and forecasts for past recessions. David believes we are now entering a Second Great Recession and provides advice on how to avoid the consequences. -
Tom welcomes back David Brady, a former money manager, Sprott Money contributor, advisor to 4779 Capital, and Substack publisher. Brady shares his perspective on the current state of markets versus the economy using his Five Pest process. He expresses his belief that a stock market crash is inevitable, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching around 1000. Brady warns that the Federal Reserve will likely intervene to prevent a major market drop and discusses his expectations for bonds, currencies, commodities, Bitcoin, gold, and silver markets.
Brady believes both gold and silver have been correlated recently but notes a disconnect with silver prices. He attributes the current strength of the gold market to Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates, a weakening dollar, potential escalation of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, growing fiscal deficits, increasing demand from central banks and countries like China and India, and bullion bank squeezes. Brady predicts that miners will eventually catch up with the metals' price rise but may initially lag behind due to rising energy costs.
David shares his perspective on how miners might respond once the Fed cuts interest rates, acknowledging uncertainty about whether this could be the catalyst for miner outperformance or if it's already priced in. Silver could also surpass gold's performance based on historical trends, with silver often underperforming gold but catching up during major rallies.
David emphasizes the importance of looking at inflation-adjusted highs in gold and silver markets. David's investment strategy involves tracking the beta between miners and silver, buying high beta miners when he believes silver is about to rise, selling when he thinks it's near a top, and holding until silver drops significantly to validate the trend.
David discusses the potential impact of the upcoming US election on monetary policy and markets, with both Trump and a Democrat potentially winning but differing approaches to fiscal spending and interest rates. He labels Trump as an inflationist and expects him to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could contribute to inflation and benefit gold and silver.
Lastly, David also mentions his concern about larger investment funds that only rebalance their portfolios quarterly or monthly. He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for financial instability by holding physical metals, farmland, becoming self-sufficient, and paying off debt.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Davids Market Outlook6:12 - Fed Reaction & Banks11:56 - BRICS 'The Unit'15:05 - Equity Drawdowns & Metals16:06 - Performance Gold Vs Silver23:10 - Fed Cut a Miner Catalyst?26:08 - Silver Chart35:25 - Inflation Adj Highs39:10 - High Beta Miners45:00 - U.S. Political Outlook54:08 - Drawdowns Vs. Physical56:22 - Have a Plan B & Skills1:00:22 - Crisis & Big Funds1:04:50 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Substack: https://fipestreport.substack.com/Fund Website: https://4779Capital.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotraderSprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writers
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce.
He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, "Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed," in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life.
David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, -
Tom welcomes back experienced investment professional David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors.
Talking Points From This Episode
The coming global bust and why inflation will persist.
We're in the last decade of a forty plus year supercycle.
His thoughts on bonds during and after the bust.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:58 - Feds Outlook & Markets6:41 - Fed Vs Bond Markets10:46 - Market Thesis Ahead19:45 - FOMO or Fed Policy22:56 - After Targets & 202526:46 - Feds Response to Bust33:47 - Trillions & Inflation42:18 - Hedges & Precious Metals?46:48 - During/After the Bust51:27 - End of Bond Markets?55:00 - Remonetizing Scenarios57:36 - Preserving Capital1:04:53 - Commodities & Dollar1:07:25 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Email: [email protected]: https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian
David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd. -
In this Palisades Gold Radio episode, host Tom Bodrovics invites Robert Smallbone from the Contrarian Capitalist Substack to discuss his concerns about the current state of affairs in the UK, particularly regarding protests, free speech, and political shifts towards left-wing ideologies. They also delve into topics such as energy policies, hate speech legislation, monetary history, and property investment.
Smallbone shares apprehensions over the UK government's handling of protests and free speech inconsistencies, touching on the complexity of defining offensive content. He emphasizes the significance of planning ahead, using the analogy of food shopping and dinner planning for strategic life decisions, and shares his personal experience living in Mexico.
The conversation then focuses on energy policies and their potential impact on costs, with Smallbone expressing concern over the UK's reliance on imported energy and the government's renewable energy focus versus nuclear power for base load energy. He criticizes the halting of oil and gas licenses in Scotland and advocates for nuclear energy as a sustainable solution for achieving energy independence and security.
Smallbone also discusses his frustrations with societal prioritization of eco-friendliness over practicality, using England's lack of grid infrastructure as an example. He challenges negative perceptions of nuclear power and emphasizes the importance of being well-informed about energy systems and subsidies.
Robert reflects on the significance of understanding monetary history and the potential financial repercussions of current inflationary policies, recalling monetary crises throughout history. He encourages listeners to study financial history and advocates for owning gold, silver, and potentially Bitcoin as a means of protection against potential monetary crises and inflation. The discussion also covers property investment strategies and the importance of buying property at the right time with consideration for interest rates and their impact on real estate investments.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - UK & Crazy Politics5:32 - Social Media Police9:43 - Having Backup Plans14:25 - Energy Policy Nonsense22:06 - Green Energy Problems24:16 - Subsidies & Real Costs28:10 - Monetary History & Cycles38:24 - Diversification & Property43:55 - Interest Rates & Cuts46:14 - Seek Solutions52:44 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Smallbone expresses concerns over UK protests, free speech inconsistencies, and energy policies.
He advocates for nuclear energy, financial preparations, and being well-informed about subsidies.
The importance of monetary history education and gold/silver ownership as a protective measure.
Guest Links:Website: https://contrariancapitalist.substack.com/
Robert Smallbone, an unconventional thinker advocating for liberty and freedom, invites you to visit The Contrarian Capitalist Substack. Through discussions on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and metals, he introduces alternative viewpoints, offering potential solutions to the complexities of life and the world's chaos. His primary objective is to assist readers in seeking solutions and consider their Plan B strategies effectively. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Professor Vince Lanci, MBA Finance and Publisher of the Goldfix Substack, for a discussion on recent market events. The primary focus is on the past week's stock market drawdowns, which started on August 2nd, possibly influenced by the Yen Carry Trade collapse. Despite no clear catalyst at the time, it's now believed that the Federal Reserve's reluctance to ease, coupled with Buffett's Apple share sale and Citibank's prediction of multiple interest rate cuts, put pressure on banks, leading them to reconsider their stance. The unexpected end to Japan's yield curve control policy caused a blow-up in the Yen Carry Trade as hedge funds were forced to refinance at higher rates, triggering a wave of selling across various markets.
Tom asks about possible tensions between Federal Reserve chairman and the Treasury's roles in managing U.S. economic policy. Janet Yellen's handling of monetary policy during her tenure as Fed Chair is critiqued for misallocating funds, creating a false signal about an economic recession, and potentially leading to inflation and higher stocks.
Vince shares an intriguing story about a Chinese gold trader causing significant damage to bullion banks. This trader, not typically known for gold trading, had been buying large quantities of futures from Western bullion banks over the counter, leading to losses. The conversation delves into the impact of Yellen's actions on the shape of the yield curve and discusses the sale of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) during the Biden presidency and its implications.
They explore whether we still need the same level of oil reserves as in the past, considering changing energy policies and difficulties in producing and storing refined products. The conversation touches on China's growing influence, the importance of ensuring a deflationary crisis for China, discovering new oil and energy sources, and securing global dominance through innovation and geopolitical considerations.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:53 - Talk About Markets13:49 - Easy Money Addiction22:55 - Fed Vs Yellen & Mandates30:44 - Yellen & Wrong Signals38:47 - Gold Trader Story46:38 - Banks & Positioning49:22 - SPR & Politics57:23 - Oil Reserve Needs1:00:09 - Gold and the Dollar1:04:40 - Thorium & Oil1:07:56 - American Innovation?1:10:20 - BRICS & Japan1:12:47 - Policy, Energy, & Votes1:14:50 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The past week's stock market drawdowns were influenced by the collapse of Yen Carry Trade.
Despite no clear catalyst at the time, Federal Reserve reluctance to ease led banks to reconsider their stance.
China's gold trader caused significant damage to bullion banks due to excessive futures trading over OTC.
Guest Links:Special Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisadesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vince Lanci, a seasoned finance professional, has served as Managing Partner at Echobay Partners LLC since 2008. His expertise spans over three decades in metals trading, option analysis, and technology development.
In recent years, Mr. Lanci's insights have been sought after by industry legends. He was invited to be a resident expert on precious metals and option analysis for Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project. In 2017, he co-authored a paper on Energy Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi at the University of Connecticut.
Prior to his current role, from 2004 to 2008, Mr. Lanci served as Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC. During this tenure, he managed the long-short and volatility arbitrage portfolios for the parent Limited Partnership fund.
From 1993 to 2003, Mr. Lanci was the proprietor of Berard Capital LLC, where he led a team of option marketmakers. - Laat meer zien
