Afleveringen
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Tom Bodrovics your host welcomes back Dave Kranzler from Investment Research Dynamics. Kranzler discusses the impact of the upcoming election on national debt and market conditions, expressing concern over the mounting deficit and lack of government spending reductions. He highlights the importance of military spending, handouts, and domestic spending in keeping the economy afloat, but warns of potential economic collapse without significant spending cuts.
Kranzler expresses concerns about the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve's gold holdings. He questions their true possession of reported reserves and lack of audits.
Kranzler believes that liquidity, not monetary policy, is the crucial factor keeping markets and banks functioning in today's hyper-financialized economy. Despite the Fed's reduction in its balance sheet and hawkish monetary policy, M2 has continued to grow, and over $2 trillion has been drained from the reverse repo facility to finance the treasury deficit and prop up sagging markets.
Kranzler expresses his belief that gold's price in dollars is setting up a favorable position and silver's cup-and-handle formation and industrial usage make it an attractive investment opportunity. He also shares his concerns about banks' actual silver positions, the opacity surrounding these positions, and potential consequences if hedge funds request delivery of actual bars from the COMEX market.
Kranzler discusses the importance of understanding the production deficit in the silver market and investing in pure silver plays. He emphasizes that all stock purchases involve risk but is currently watching closely mid-tier producers.
Kranzler also discusses the role of confidentiality agreements and feasibility studies in attracting larger companies to junior mining projects. He encourages investors to focus on a few stocks they believe in and learn how to analyze these stocks for potential returns.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Election & Market Effects3:24 - Implosion Inevitable4:20 - U.S. Gold Audits & Fed11:57 - Liquidity & Banks16:09 - Fed's Next Move?20:36 - Precious Metals Outlook28:38 - Silver Production Deficit33:26 - Mexico & Mining?36:34 - Silver Miners?43:05 - Silver Speculation?44:44 - Eric Sprott47:07 - M&A Targets?50:23 - Feasibility Studies?55:10 - Streaming Agreements56:34 - Finding Value in Miners1:01:02 - Risks & Considerations1:05:39 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
David's insights on the current state and future trends of the precious metals market.
Kranzler expresses concern over mounting national debt and potential economic collapse without spending cuts.
The role of royalties and streams in funding mining projects, and the pros and cons.
Kranzler's advice to investors regarding focusing on a few stocks and analyzing them thoroughly.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvResDynamicsWebsite: https://investmentresearchdynamics.comNewsletter: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mining-stock-journal
David Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master's degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance. He writes a blog to help people understand and analyze what is going on in our financial system and economy. -
As the sun sets, the video quality improves, and Tom Bodrovics once again engages in a thoughtful conversation with the legendary Rick Rule. The discussion revolves around Rick's busy post-retirement life, the current gold and silver investment environment, and investing strategies in the metals industry.
Rick admits his retirement was unsuccessful as he continues to be engrossed in work, but he appreciates the reduced regulatory engagement since leaving Sprott. He enjoys sharing knowledge of past mentors through interviews and events like the Rule Investment Symposium, which offers a money-back guarantee for attendees. Rick believes that attending conferences for informal conversations and connections is essential.
They discuss the macroeconomic factors influencing gold and silver investments, such as increasing costs affecting mining companies' profitability and the potential $135 trillion debt in the US economy leading to inflation and boosting metal prices. The conversation delves into investing strategies for retail investors, from owning physical gold first to building a portfolio based on beta.
Rick shares his experiences with political risk and success stories in countries like Chile, Congo, and South Sudan, emphasizing the importance of understanding political and jurisdictional risks. He discusses investment opportunities in natural resource sectors like gold and silver, as well as contrarian picks such as North American natural gas and the lithium market. Rick also expresses interest in investing in private placements that can significantly enhance a company's value.
Throughout the conversation, they touch upon topics such as patience, long-term vision, competency, and corporate strategy. They also discuss the importance of having an opinion on value and being able to endure market volatility. Rick shares key lessons from his career as an investor, stressing the significance of contrarianism, understanding market dynamics, and patience.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Failing at Retirement3:00 - Conference & Guarantee5:36 - State of Resource Sector8:54 - Fed Cuts & Politics17:07 - A Triumph of Politics18:35 - Shelton & Gold Treasuries?20:18 - First Gold Bull Moves25:30 - Investor Risk Appetites27:02 - Global Demand & Bullion?30:36 - Investor Types & Gold35:32 - Studying Miners & Risks39:30 - New Investor Advice42:25 - Common Sense Rules45:33 - A Contrarian Approach?49:26 - Timeframe & Questions54:04 - M&A Deals & Newmont57:26 - Management & Mine Cycles59:57 - Exploration Cap-Ex1:04:10 - Other Mkt. Sectors1:10:29 - Private Placements1:12:44 - Lessons Learned1:17:33 - Offers & Wrap Up
12:20 - Highlight Clip
Talking Points From This Episode
Rick Rule emphasizes the importance of attending conferences for knowledge and connections.
Now failing at retirement, Mr. Rule continues to engage in work due to his passion for the industry.
Macroeconomic factors, such as inflation and debt, could positively impact gold and silver prices.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/realrickruleTwitter: https://twitter.com/realinvestmentmediaWebsite: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RuleInvestmentMediaClassroom: https://ruleclassroom.comBank Site: https://battlebank.com
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, -
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Tom Bodrovics and Keith Weiner delve into the intricacies of fundamental price and basis rates in the gold and silver markets during their conversation on Palisades. The Gold Standard Institute president and Monetary Metals CEO, elucidates how their model offers insights into market tensions and potential price movements by determining where the market would settle if all futures speculation were to unwind. Keith also discusses lease rates, which reflect metal abundance or scarcity, in relation to market evaluations for gold and silver investments.
The conversation revolves around the disparity between the costs of producing and refining gold and silver, with significant spreads for refiners. Although mining costs are essential considerations, Keith argues that all potential gold supply remains in circulation due to its value and desirability. Keith challenges the Quantity Theory of Money and Milton Friedman's treatment of gold and printed dollars as equivalent, emphasizing their differences in origin and effects on the economy.
Weiner also discusses the implications of an ever-growing US national debt and interest payments. He argues that the world operates on a dollar basis, creating a relentless bid on the dollar despite its growing debt. Keith discusses commercial real estate bubble and the impact on banks and zombie companies, raising concerns about potential insolvency due to rising interest rates and loan asset markdowns.
The conversation concludes with discussions about upcoming financial crises, including the 'everything bubble,' and the potential dilemmas facing the Federal Reserve in addressing it, given the larger debt levels and more significant interest rate hikes than during previous periods. Keith highlights the importance of creating an honest monetary system based on gold, emphasizing market-based alternatives to Keynesian philosophy and personal opt-out options to avoid capital debasement.
Talking Points From This Episode0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Measuring Price of PMs8:32 - Current Market Temps10:40 - Analysis & Lease Rates14:14 - All-In Production Costs19:22 - Do Fundamentals Matter?22:57 - Qty. Theory of Money35:27 - Debt & Interest Payments41:37 - Commercial Debt & Banks55:26 - Bank Bailouts & Fed59:40 - Central Planning Problems1:06:30 - Kicking Cans & Politics1:11:32 - Any Possible Solutions?1:23:18 - Net Worth & Risk/Return1:31:10 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold and silver market insights using fundamental price analysis.
Challenging Quantity Theory of Money and gold vs. printed dollars equivalence.
Implications of US debt, commercial real estate bubbles, Fed bank bailouts, and zombie companies.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/kweiner01Website: https://monetary-metals.comWebsite: https://goldstandardinstitute.netFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5
Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price.
Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this.
Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence.
Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics.
Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. His work was instrumental in the passing of gold legal tender laws in the state of Arizona in 2017. -
Tom welcomes a well known and interesting guest for the first time to the show, Dr. Judy Shelton. Judy is Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute and author of Good as Gold, passionately advocates for sound money as a moral obligation of governments to their citizens. Sound money, according to Shelton, should maintain its value over time, acting as an unchanging standard for economic planning and transactions. She criticizes the Federal Reserve's policy of debasing the U.S. dollar through inflation targeting, which undermines its purchasing power and creates inequality in society.
The Federal Reserve was initially established to provide an elastic currency that addressed seasonal economic fluctuations. However, the role of the Fed has shifted significantly over time, leading to concerns about its growing dependence on the government for budgeting needs and potential consequences for the economy and small businesses.
Shelton argues for market-determined interest rates, pointing to historical examples like the gold standard. She also highlights the importance of accurate data in monetary policy decision-making and critiques central banks' conflicting policies on a global scale that can lead to currency wars and instability in international trade.
Shelton advocates for a new international monetary system anchored by a gold convertible long-term US Treasury bond, which would promote stability and accountability in international transactions. She recalls her unsuccessful nomination to the Federal Reserve and expresses her belief that economic growth under President Trump's agenda and Elon Musk's involvement could lead to controlling the budget and promoting sound money. Shelton urges for less central planning by governments, believing there is a collective yearning for trustworthy, stable money in society.
The interview concludes with Dr. Judy Shelton expressing her gratitude for the opportunity to discuss her ideas and the success of her book "Good as Gold" on Amazon's charts. She encourages listeners to get radical and demand sound money from their governments for a more prosperous economy based on individual liberty.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Sound Money & Morality2:27 - Money Vs. Currency4:32 - Price Stability?11:52 - Fed Control & Hubris18:30 - Central Planning & Mkts24:03 - Fed 'Independence'27:20 - Pricing Money Free Mkt.36:10 - C.B. Global Effects39:34 - BRICS & Gold?44:34 - U.S. Gold Bonds?55:30 - Golds History of Restraint59:15 - Politics & Financial Plans1:01:59 - Nominee & 'Extreme Views'1:10:22 - Book 'Good as Gold'1:11:50 - Get Radical & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Dr. Judy Shelton advocates for sound money as a moral obligation of governments to ensure economic stability and planning through unchanging currency value.
The Federal Reserve's inflation targeting policy weakens U.S. dollar purchasing power, leading to inequality and potential consequences for the economy.
Shelton proposes a new international monetary system anchored by a gold convertible long-term US Treasury bond for stability in global transactions.
Guest Links:X: https://x.com/judyshel
Book: Good as Gold: How to Unleash the Power of Sound Moneyhttps://www.amazon.com/Good-Gold-Unleash-Power-Sound/dp/1598133896
Dr. Judy Shelton is a senior fellow at Independent Institute, former chairman of the National Endowment for Democracy, and former US director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. She has provided testimony before the Senate and has been consulted on international monetary issues by the White House and the Pentagon. She is the author of multiple books and has written for the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times. -
In case you missed part one, the full version is available on X, Rumble and various Podcast apps.
In part two, the discussion continues around Dave's skepticism towards various economic topics, including the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and market valuations. He argues for a return to realistic expectations and understanding debt and returns.
The Professor expresses concerns about current leaders, financialization, and growing geopolitical realignments.
Dave envisions gold becoming the world's reserve currency within the next decade and expresses his high conviction in gold investments, advocating for cash during market downturns and sharing past experiences. He criticizes the Bank of England's selling tactics and platinum investment opportunities despite instability in South Africa.
Lastly Collum discussed his recent podcast comment experiences, the declining value of college degrees, and proposed a funding plan for student loans.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Lack of Introduction0:19 - Staying Objective & Fed Cut s10:38 - Hedonic Adjustments13:54 - Easy Money & Bad Signals22:32 - General Vs. Specialization26:13 - BRICS Realignment30:42 - 40-Year Bear Market36:16 - Commercial Real Estate40:10 - Gold & Brown's Bottom43:39 - Platinum & Miners45:23 - Travel & Impressions50:04 - Opportunity & Miners52:29 - Podcast Comments & Tops54:40 - 1925 S&P To Now & M257:00 - Ponzi Demographics1:02:09 - Constructive Comments?1:05:24 - Education is Rotting1:10:00 - Wrap Up
Guest LinksTwitter: https://x.com/davidbcollumWebsite: https://collum.chem.cornell.edu/
David B. Collum is an American Chemist and professor at Cornell University. He currently teaches a graduate Chemistry and Chemical biology course.
He also runs the Collum group, which focuses on how aggregation and solvation dictate the reactivity and selectivity of organolithium compounds commonly used by synthetic chemists in academia and the pharmaceutical industry.
Ph.D., Columbia University, MA Columbia University, BS Cornell University. -
https://rumble.com/v5jh4sk-david-collum-part-one-bannable-banter-the-topics-that-tiptoe-on-trouble.html
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back the always entertaining Professor Dave Collum for a pre-election discussion. David is Professor of Chemistry at Cornell University and a forthright Market Commentator.
Collum expresses his concerns about the election's candidates and their historical roles. He suggests that Trump, despite having moral weaknesses, may have matured with a stronger conviction than Harris, who he believes lacks intellect and understanding of her role in history.
Collum touches on morally unguided leaders, stating people are tired of such individuals, which could influence the election's outcome. He also discusses potential violence surrounding the election and the impact of mail-in ballots on fairness perception. Furthermore, he shares thoughts on societal moral decay and the impacts on markets and relationships.
Dave critiques FDR's actions during WWII, referencing books like American Betrayal, The Red Thread, and New Deal or Raw Deal.
The conversation delves back into politics and ethics. One person regretted dismissing JD Vance and saw Kamala Harris' "unburdened by what has been" as a potentially effective message. They discussed free speech, accountability, and concerns about weaponizing of the justice system.
The discussion also questions the phenomenon of gender reassignment among young people, suggesting it might be rooted in a lack of meaning or purpose. They criticized questionable practices and silenced voices regarding the medical community and government's role.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:54 - Elections & Expectations9:20 - Internet Friends12:09 - Censorship & Control16:30 - FDR & New Deal19:52 - USSR Made In USA29:12 - Underestimating Dems.32:26 - Judicial Weaponization36:18 - Age of Unaccountability43:25 - Kids, & Finding Meaning48:45 - Covid & Experiments58:44 - Influencing the Outcome1:01:06 - Students & Tribalism
Guest LinksTwitter: https://x.com/davidbcollumWebsite: https://collum.chem.cornell.edu/
David B. Collum is an American Chemist and professor at Cornell University. He currently teaches a graduate Chemistry and Chemical biology course.
He also runs the Collum group, which focuses on how aggregation and solvation dictate the reactivity and selectivity of organolithium compounds commonly used by synthetic chemists in academia and the pharmaceutical industry.
Ph.D., Columbia University, MA Columbia University, BS Cornell University. -
Tom welcomes back John Rubino, former Wall Street analyst, author and Substacker https://rubino.substack.com for a discussion on the gold mining industry's recent trends during the third quarter earnings reports. Despite the increase in gold prices, mining stocks have underperformed due to factors like rising costs and geopolitical risks. However, strong earning reports from top companies are attracting momentum investors, potentially triggering a bull market for precious metals. John emphasizes the importance of investing psychology and buying undervalued assets during bear markets. He also discusses the cyclicality of mining sector, potential acquisitions following strong earnings, and the significance of both fundamental setups and technical indicators when considering gold and silver investments. Additionally, Russia's decision to buy silver for its strategic reserve fund is affecting the silver market by tightening supply and increasing upward pressure on prices. Despite economic uncertainties, investors are encouraged to seek opportunities in this environment.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - Miners & Earnings4:56 - Underperformance?7:09 - Numerous Good Sectors11:03 - Peaky Bubbles15:28 - Miners, Cycles, & M&A21:14 - Miner Behaviors & Results27:56 - Buyouts & Shareholders30:12 - Technicals/Fundamentals36:42 - Wage Price Spiral41:58 - Russia Buying Silver43:51 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeMining stocks underperformed despite gold price increase due to rising costs and geopolitical risks.Strong earnings reports from top companies attract momentum investors, potentially sparking precious metals bull market.Invest in undervalued assets during bear markets for long-term gains; consider both fundamentals and technicals.Guest LinksSubstack: https://rubino.substack.comBooks: https://tinyurl.com/5buyvy6vJohn Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022, and now publishes on Substack.
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In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, your host Tom Bodrovics invites back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis to discuss the stock market's present condition in relation to the upcoming US election. Michael expresses his view that the markets have not fully accounted for the uncertainty and potential instability arising from the election. He references historical precedents of market reactions following unpredictable election results, specifically the bull market peaks in 2000 and 2007, where interest rate cuts after periods of hikes led to significant downturns.
Michael shares his perspective on the economy, emphasizing that the Fed has shifted its focus from inflation control to defending the economy due to Powell's concerns over an inadequate job market, particularly in manufacturing and essential industries, and a looming debt crisis. He discusses the potential consequences for the bond market and gold prices, suggesting that when the stock market corrects, data points will shift, prompting Fed concern about solvency and the need to roll over substantial amounts of debt with increasing interest costs.
Michael discusses the potential for a government debt crisis and its impact on gold, predicting a short-term rally in T-bonds as assets flow out of stocks into perceived safety but an ultimately downward trend in terms of price and upward yield. He also highlights the significance of commodities related to agriculture, energy, and base metals following gold's lead during market upswings.
Michael explains the correlation between stock markets and the US dollar index, emphasizing that increased losses may create demand for the dollar but warning that historically, major swings in the dollar index have followed the stock market trends rather than assisting it in times of potential breakdowns.
Michael uses an analogy to describe gold's relationship with silver, viewing it as a 'mama market' with silver acting as an unpredictable 'wild dog on a leash.' He explains that while gold sets trends, silver exhibits seemingly irrational swings but ultimately follows the same direction. The underperforming gold miners GDX are expected to outperform gold in the future, and silver's industrial significance could lead to increased attention once prices take off.
Predicting significant price increases for gold, Michael suggests that conditions such as stock market instability, central bank issues, and government debt markets could drive a surge reminiscent of the late 1970s and early 1980s, where gold experienced eightfold growth.
Michael concludes with a discussion of the potential for market instability due to unpredictable outcomes from the US election, with both parties experiencing desperation and panic contributing to an unstable stock market. He also references Javier Milei's presidency in Argentina as a reminder of the need for painful changes in response to decades of mismanagement and anticipates an intriguing and consequential period ahead.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:31 - Markets & The Elections8:04 - Yen & the Nikk ei11:46 - Fed & Liquidity14:15 - Bond Markets & Service20:45 - Gold & Commodities24:33 - Dollar Crisis & Demand27:16 - Complexities & Timeframes32:50 - Sell Offs & Metals35:52 - Silver Vs. Gold Spreads41:32 - Metals & Fundamentals46:19 - Gold Miners & Signals49:43 - Earnings & Margins51:38 - Miners & Mining Tiers55:16 - Debt Crisis & The Metals1:02:42 - Political Upsets1:06:51 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Michael Oliver warns of potential market instability due to US election uncertainty, referencing historical precedents.
Fed's focus shifts from inflation control to economy defense amid job market concerns and debt crisis.
Gold predicted to surge with conditions like stock instability, central bank issues, and government debt markets.
Guest Links:Alasdair MacLeod Video: https://vimeo.com/1017577311/aaaf32f856Website: http://www. -
https://rumble.com/v5insh9-feargus-oconner-greenwood-beyond-the-illusion-exposing-the-lies-created-by-.htmlTom Bodrovics welcomes Feargus O'Connor Greenwood, author of "180 Degrees: Unlearn the Lies That You've Been Taught to Believe." This conversation centers around understanding the financial system and changing perspectives. Feargus wrote his book due to widespread deception and manipulation in society, aiming to expose deceit, break the hold of authority, and equip readers with effective communication tools. He believes that the financial system exists not for individual prosperity but as a tool to create money from nothing and exert control. Money has functions and attributes, and Feargus stresses the importance of understanding its origins and creation.Feargus discusses the historical manipulation of currencies by entities like the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, arguing these institutions have caused economic depressions and perpetuated corruption. He believes fixing the monetary system is essential for solving global issues and restoring free market incentives. He sees gold, silver, and crypto as safe havens against potential hyperinflation and anticipates a significant price move in silver due to increasing demand.Feargus discusses the potential for physical demand of metals to potentially break markets. Technological advancements are also discussed as having potential impacts on the markets. Feargus believes Bitcoin will have a role as both a decentralized currency bringing freedom and like any tool has potential for tyrannical applications.The importance of truth, and understanding situations through a lens of proving what didn't happen rather than what did is explored. Feargus also discusses the concept of empire collapse and symptoms of decay. False flags are defined as covert operations designed to deceive and identified by broken emergency protocols, hidden evidence, and perpetrators linked with intelligence services.Feargus discusses effective communication strategies to deploy when explaining non-mainstream topics. These include starting small, avoiding arguments, using analogies, and practicing active listening. Feargus' book provides further insights into these strategies. The conversation concludes by discussing the importance of morality and ethics as essential elements for the survival of any society.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:56 - Systemic Lies & His Book4:03 - Financial System Purpose8:20 - Money From Nothing10:20 - Infinite Money = Corruption12:16 - First Order Problems15:22 - Money Supply Booms/Busts19:04 - Central Bank Origins22:30 - Savings Vs. Inflation25:15 - Silver & Manipulation29:29 - Purpose of the B.I.S.32:25 - Possible Solutions38:24 - Origin of Bitcoin?40:48 - Describing Reality45:47 - Empire Collapse Cycles48:37 - Broken Protocols54:17 - Facing Truth & Reality57:43 - Elections & Fraud1:01:08 - Ten Solutions1:20:00 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Book: https://www.amazon.com/180-Degrees-Unlearn-Taught-Believe/dp/1915236002/EMail: [email protected] Points From This EpisodeFeargus Greenwood exposes financial system manipulation by entities like the Bank of England and Federal Reserve, advocating for understanding money's functions and considering gold, silver, or crypto as safe havens against potential inflation.Historical currency manipulations by institutions have led to economic instability; fixing the monetary system is crucial for global issues with Feargus predicting a significant price move in silver.Discussing false flags, covert operations deceptively identified by broken protocols, hidden evidence, and intelligence service links; effective communication strategies including proving non-occurrence, starting small, avoiding arguments, using analogies, and active listening.Feargus is the author of 180 Degrees: Unlearn the Lies You’ve Been Taught to Believe. Over 10,
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Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa, Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital, for an enlightening conversation about the gold industry and commodity space. Costa expresses his views on the current market landscape, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts could signal a structural bear market for the US dollar, with significant consequences for inflation, gold, and emerging market stocks. He also explores the potential labor market weakness and its possible link to an impending recession, emphasizing the significance of investing in industries with compelling growth prospects.
Costa delves into the subject of gold and silver markets, debating the importance of focusing on percentage gains versus supply and demand factors. He points out the long-term underperformance of the mining industry relative to gold due to a dearth of new discoveries, delayed capital flows from larger miners to smaller ones, and the general reluctance to invest in this sector.
Despite these hurdles, Tavi remains hopeful about the future of the mining industry, viewing it as a promising venture rather than a mere gamble. He stress the value of acquiring expertise, focusing on scalability, and keeping abreast of market developments. When it comes to assessing miners, explorers, and developers, Tavi advocates for zeroing in on successful ventures and overlooked assets for potential value creation.
Costa voices his concerns about analysts' inconsistent forecasts, particularly with respect to gold prices and future earnings, regarding this disparity as a lucrative opportunity for savvy investors. He also delves into the role of royalty companies in the mining industry and their influence on various sectors. Tavi stress the significance of recognizing incentives and their impact on industry dynamics.
Lastly, they explores the substantial decline in mining investment and the repercussions of government funding and Chinese competition in securing mining assets. Tavi expresses enthusiasm for the prospective rewards in the mining sector.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introductions0:55 - Market Turning Point4:23 - Weak Dollar Outlook11:04 - Labor & Job Numbers15:34 - Inflation & Commodities22:00 - 2024 P.M. Performance29:33 - Gold Vs. Miners35:03 - Investment or Speculation39:33 - Analyzing Mine Sector48:36 - Royalty Plays?51:53 - Shift to Resources59:06 - Strategic Metals1:07:28 - Capital Necessities1:10:16 - Chinese Investment1:12:36 - Vision & Success1:14:12 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:X: https://x.com/tavicostaX: https://x.com/crescat_capitalWebsite: https://crescat.net
Talking Points From This Episode
Tavi Costa predicts a US dollar bear market due to Fed rate cuts, impacting gold, inflation, and emerging markets.
Tavi emphasizes expertise, scalability, and market knowledge for success in mining industry.
Tavi Costa sees potential in overlooked mining assets, despite challenges like analyst uncertainty and declining capital investment.
Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.
His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.
Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University. -
Tom Bodrovics welcoms back global forecaster and author David Murrin to discuss the significance of historical understanding for predicting complex geopolitical events and avoiding future conflicts. Murrin shares his belief in the repetition of historical patterns due to human unconsciousness, emphasizing the importance of studying history from multiple perspectives. He believes that the current geopolitical situation between the West and China/Russia could lead to World War Three, highlighting historical cycles as potential catalysts for conflict.
Murrin also shares his theory on five stages of empires, which he's applies to Britain, Germany, and America's power dynamics. He warns about the challenges facing China due to economic instability and military expansion, urging strategic thinking to counteract this challenge. Murrin discusses China's economic shift towards industry growth, and the potential implications of the U.S.'s rate-cutting cycle.
David emphasizes the importance of understanding war blindness, a dangerous tendency for denial and appeasement in Western society, and the potential consequences of inflation due to economic power shifts between democratic and autocratic systems. He encourages individual action and the embrace of lateral thinking as crucial steps for personal growth and societal progress. Murrin also discusses the potential for wars to promote accelerated societal evolution and encourages understanding historical cycles to prevent future conflicts.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:15 - Perspectives & Predictions7:04 - Humanities Blind Alley15:08 - History & Narrative Bias18:32 - China & Economic Issues28:29 - China's Strength?30:40 - U.S. Monetary Policy34:44 - China & Commodities38:24 - War Monger?42:44 - Stimulus & Recession?46:00 - End of Globalization?47:34 - Economic Warfare & China50:55 - Warning & Avoidance53:18 - Strategic Thrivers59:24 - Wrap Up/Conclusion
Talking Points From This Episode
David Murrin stresses historical patterns' repetition and their role in predicting geopolitical conflicts.
He identifies five stages of empires and warns about China's economic instability and military expansion.
Murrin advocates understanding war blindness, lateral thinking, and historical cycles to prevent future conflicts.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastrWebsite: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/Lateral Vs Linear Thought: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_v5720RPmw&t=636s
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.
In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm's private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. -
Tom welcomes back Matthew Pipenburg from Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland to discusses the seemingly inevitable economic decline. Matthew discusses the relevance of Ernest Hemingway's perspectives on inflation and war to today's economic landscape. Pipenburg emphasized the potential for political opportunists to manipulate conflicts and economic instability for their advantage, leading to long-term ruin. He also touches upon Hemingway's background and how his experiences shaped his views on these issues.
The conversation shifts towards the importance of addressing misaligned incentives within systems and the potential dangers of fascist-like tendencies in modern politics. He discusses the implications of wealth inequality, consolidated power, and corporate influence on politics and decision-making bodies. He advocates for a reevaluation of anti-trust laws to combat monopolies in various sectors, including media, banking, agriculture, and tech.
Tom then asks about the significance of political intelligence and leadership. They discussed the historical context leading to economic crises and the implications of record-breaking public debt on society and the economy.
Pipenburg compares the economic situation Nixon faced in the 1970s with the present day, arguing that we have entered a permanent ruin stage from a period of temporary prosperity due to unprecedented issuance of debt. Matthew also explores the impact of monetary dilution on various asset classes, including Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500, in relation to the diminishing purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.
The conversation focuses on the cyclicality of the gold and silver markets and their long-term trends due to the loss of trust in fiat money and central banks seeking alternatives. He also discusses the potential implications of countries like China and Russia returning to a gold-backed currency as part of their economic strategies. Lastly, he encourages patience, objectivity, and critical thinking to protect against potential chaos.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:03 - A Timely Quote10:00 - Systems & Incentives21:47 - Harris & Political Games24:13 - Gold, Nixon, & Politics36:10 - 70s Inflation & Now41:40 - Debt & Consequences46:13 - Expectations This Cycle52:24 - Monetary Dilution 'Solution'1:01:02 - P.M. Price Cyclicality1:09:50 - Gold Backing Currency?1:16:18 - Objectivity & Road Ahead1:21:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Why Hemingway's insights on inflation, war, and political manipulation are still relevant today.
Addressing misaligned incentives within systems to prevent long-term ruin.
Exploring the economic implications of record-breaking public debt and importance of real leadership and democracy.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerlandWebsite: https://goldswitzerland.com/Articles: https://signalsmatter.com/Book (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c
Matthew Piepenburg is a Partner of Von Greyerz and the author of the popular book, "Rigged to Fail". Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.com. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Justin Huhn, the founder and publisher of Uranium Insider newsletter. Tom starts the conversation by asking about the current supply side dynamics of the uranium market. Huhn explains that most models suggest market balance around 2029-2031 but expresses concern about meeting demand beyond this point due to declining rates of existing mine production. The physical uranium market remains structurally undersupplied, and midterm fuel supply developments indicate a significant shortfall.
The discussion then delves into the historical context of the nuclear market, highlighting the shift in public perception from negative sentiment to favorable views today due to clean energy associations. The tech industry's involvement and China's aggressive buying add to the market dynamics. However, challenges remain, such as financial institutions' reluctance to fund new nuclear builds and cost concerns.
Huhn then explores the unique long-term contracting market of utilities, which account for over 80% of their uranium requirements. Flex provisions have been used during periods of low or high prices but are being phased out in new contracts due to the current seller's market. He also discusses the potential implications of Russia restricting uranium supply to 'unfriendly' countries, causing significant disruptions and the potential ramifications for conversion and enrichment services.
Despite historically low inflation-adjusted uranium prices following a rapid increase in the early 2010s, utilities have been securing new contracts outside of Russia to bolster their inventories. The current price environment is bullish for the sector's equity recovery, which has already started, with term and spot prices at levels not seen in a decade. Additionally, there are ongoing discussions about uranium equities lagging behind commodity prices. Huhn also mentions potential impacts of U.S. elections which could negatively impact markets.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - Uranium Supply/Demand7:38 - Historical Parallels12:40 - Tech Sector & Nuclear20:54 - Flex Contract Provisions28:58 - Uranium Inflation Adj.34:10 - Uranium Price & Equities43:06 - Sprott SPUT Application?45:50 - Russia & Unfriendlies50:54 - Elections & Outcomes55:23 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The uranium market is structurally undersupplied with physical uranium, leading to a significant shortfall compared to demand.
Utilities, which account for over 80% of uranium requirements, are securing new contracts to bolster their inventories due to bullish price environment.
Russia's potential restriction on uranium supply could cause significant disruptions and increased prices for conversion and enrichment services.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/Newsletter: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/newsletterTwitter: https://twitter.com/UraniumInsiderNuclear Now - Oliver Stone: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt21376908/
Justin is the Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider Pro Newsletter. Through the combination of rigorous fundamental analysis and Justin's thorough understanding of technical analysis, determinations are made for select companies to be included on Uranium Insider Pro's "Focus List," as well as the most opportune times for entry or exit.
Justin is frequently asked to offer his commentary on various media forums, including Crux Investor, Smith Weekly, Palisades Gold Radio, Mining Stock Education, and Mining Stock Daily. He also regularly participates in the post-earnings commentary that is broadcast immediately after industry majors release quarterly earnings.
Justin is devoted to bringing value to those that are taking their first look at the uranium sector. Until July 2020, he distributed a complimentary newsletter as an educational tool to those investors seeking to familiarize themselves with the complexities and opportunities offered by the uranium sector and the uran... -
Tom welcomes back Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report for a discussion on the record-high prices of gold and silver. St. Angelo suggests these levels for silver could be a new floor as they've historically returned to production costs following price spikes. The average cost of primary silver production is around $26 an ounce, taking taxes and developmental costs into account.
St. Angelo stresses the importance of distinguishing investment demand from industrial demand when analyzing the silver market dynamics. A decade ago, there was a significant silver surplus due to decreased industrial demand which has since reversed with increased investment demand. Industrial demand is expected to consume all available supply, making additional investment demand potentially price-volatile.
Steve explores the impact of energy scarcity and continued money printing on production costs, driving up gold and silver prices due to inflationary pressures. They discuss the possibility of a market correction offering the last chance to buy silver at present rates.
Steve and Tom delve into the relationship between expanding money supply, debt, federal funds rate, and silver price. Looking towards the period leading up to 2025, a market correction is anticipated due to increasing unemployment and possible employment data revisions. Economic weakness could lead to reduced interest rates and more money printing, instigating inflation and purchasing power reduction. However, Commitment of Traders reports may not accurately reflect demand.
The global silver mine supply and output have been declining since 2015, necessitating existing inventories to bridge the deficit. This imbalance could lead to a substantial correction when prices significantly surpass production costs. Concerns about marginal silver supply include transparent and non-transparent inventories, solar industry demand, and copper prices as indicators of industrial demand and potential recession.
Steve discusses the shift from LBMA to ETF silver inventories. Pre-pandemic, there was significant physical buying leading to expanded ETF inventories. However, in 2022, overall LBMA inventories decreased due to Indian purchasing and ETF withdrawals.
Finally, Steve discusses the merits of assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and silver. While some view Bitcoin as a digital counterpart to gold, Steve contends that saving in Bitcoin is not the same as saving in precious metals. This is due to Bitcoin mining causing considerable share dilution and due to the energy costs.
Steve advocates understanding asset worth based on economic progress versus past activity, emphasizing energy's role in asset value, and preparing for future energy realities.
Talking Points From This Episode
Silver's new floor could be around average production cost ($26/oz).
Industrial demand vs investment demand crucial in analyzing silver market dynamics.
Economic instability, the energy cliff, inflation, and supply concerns may lead to significant price volatility.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:22 - New Silver Price Floor3:30 - Miners & All-In Costs5:55 - Energy & Money Supply8:44 - Types of Metal Demand11:35 - Money Printing & Silver15:13 - Purchasing Power & Rates17:06 - Fed Cuts & Corrections21:37 - Utility of COT Reports23:52 - Mine Supply & Output28:44 - Silver & Manufacturing31:54 - Grid Stability & Solar34:40 - LBMA Silver Trends37:06 - Miner Production & Shares40:35 - Dedollarization & Gold47:50 - Dr. Copper & Economy51:34 - Energy & Volatile Mkts.54:13 - Energy, GDP, & Debt55:20 - Federal Deficits Chart57:10 - Trends & Collapse1:00:48 - U.S. Spending & Budget1:02:50 - Bitcoin & Precious Metals1:06:10 - Energy Store of Value1:09:25 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Independent researcher Steve St. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Coleman from Idaho Armored Vaults. They explore current trends and insights in the precious metals markets. With gold and silver reaching record highs, excitement for investors should be palpable, but retail participation remains low due to factors like premiums and negative sentiment. High net worth individuals continue driving demand and the impacts of Indian gold and silver imports and buying activity was also discussed.
The conversation delves into the dynamics between managed money funds and swap dealers, the role of options markets, and the shift from COMEX to ETFs for investment. Bob also examines recent changes in margin requirements by the CME and their potential impact on market trends. Coleman emphasizes the importance of understanding dealer business models and avoiding sensational and fear-based reasons for buying precious metals. He warned against manipulative dealers, inflating prices through social media tactics, and advises careful reading of storage agreements.
Coleman further discusses physical precious metals demand from high net worth individuals due to tax planning, estate planning, counterparty risk concerns, and potential election policies. However, lease rates pulling back and increasing COMEX inventories indicates lower physical demand. Coleman also cautioned investors about overly sensational or fear-based reasons for buying precious metals. Investors should be cautious of agreements that move liability to the client. He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for market volatility, consider taking profits or protective measures, and understanding spot dealer practices.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:14 - Market Status & Highs6:52 - Shorts & Metals Demand12:00 - P.M. ETF Flows/Demand17:05 - Demand Drivers19:04 - Lease Rates & Premiums24:02 - Compare Prices & Premiums29:04 - User Agreement Red Flags33:03 - Sensationalism & Fear40:15 - Selling Back Metal44:00 - ETFS & Metal Claims49:44 - Elections & Narratives53:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
High net worth individuals are driving precious metals demand despite low retail participation due to premiums and negative sentiment.
Understand dealer business models to avoid manipulative practices and sensational reasons for buying precious metals.
Tax reductions, elections, and geopolitical events significantly influence precious metals market trends.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Luke Gromen, the founder and president of FFTT (Forest for the Trees). They discuss the implications of the recent 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed and its potential impact on the US fiscal situation. According to Gromen, this cut signifies growing concerns from the Fed about the US true interest expense reaching an unprecedented level since the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed's two options are either allowing true interest expense to crowd out global dollar markets or cutting rates to alleviate it and stimulate receipts with a weaker dollar and higher inflation.
Gromen also mentions four destabilizing events: oil prices exceeding $80 per barrel, an increased US deficit outlook, the Japanese 10-year yield breaking through, and a politically disruptive event occurring in August 2023, which led to a US downgrade. With tighter financial conditions for the private sector but loosest for the US government despite interest rate sensitivity, Gromen predicts a potential gap between the Fed funds rate and two-year discounts, suggesting a recession instead of a soft landing.
Luke also touches upon the connection between treasury receipts and recessions, where they usually decrease significantly during a typical economic downturn. With the US already experiencing an 8% deficit of GDP, a potential recession could push it up to 13-14%, making the country less attractive for long-term debt investment, potentially leading to inflation and economic instability.
Gromen believes that large investors or 'whales' are influencing financial markets by buying gold, stocks, and selling Treasuries in anticipation of the Fed's response to positive real rates. The scenario is likened to a movie where smaller traders react month-to-month while whales steer the economic 'Titanic'. The text also outlines two potential bearish scenarios: austerity measures from the US government causing a downturn in all markets or capital controls and taxation driving investors to seek safe havens outside of the US.
The ongoing debate about introducing a sovereign wealth fund by both Trump and Biden administrations is discussed, with concerns over its feasibility given the current financial situation. Instead of running a surplus, governments plan to borrow money and invest it in assets, creating a 'sovereign wealth fund with an asterisk'. The speaker also explores alternative solutions like increasing spending or rebuilding domestic production capability but acknowledges that someone must ultimately own the $35 trillion in US debt.
Luke discusses various economic ideas and scenarios impacting the global financial system, including the potential for revaluing gold mechanically to inject more money into the US Treasury or raising its price significantly to invest trillions into the Treasury General Account. The significance of a decreasing Baby Boomer entitlement spend due to an increase in mortality rates and China's approach of allowing the yuan to float against gold are also touched upon. Throughout, there is an emphasis on understanding trade-offs and making informed decisions based on economic realities.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - Feds 50-Basis Point Cut2:47 - 4-Destabilizing Things5:26 - Discounting Recession?10:15 - US Debt Buyers17:04 - Yellen & Stealth QE?19:47 - Yield Curve & Signals21:33 - Refinancing The Debt23:52 - Debt Oscillations25:52 - Math Doesn't Care29:50 - Political Decisions34:40 - Noise & Whales41:14 - Equity Bear Scenarios46:55 - Sovereign 'Debt' Fund50:40 - Grow Out of Debt?55:57 - Possible Solutions?59:05 - China & Dollar1:01:10 - BRICS & US Strategy1:07:18 - Gold/Oil Proxy1:11:30 - Carry Trade Unwind1:13:52 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/lukegromenWebsite: https://fftt-llc.com/
Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, -
Tom welcomes back Richard Duncan, economist and author of 'The Money Revolution.' The discussion revolves around the implications of Duncan's latest work, which challenges conventional economic theories, particularly those rooted in Austrian economics. Their last conversation was over two years ago.
Duncan begins by recapping the ideas presented in his book, including how the unexpected response to the 2008 financial crisis, characterized by trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus and monetary expansion, did not result in high inflation despite concerns from Austrian economists. He also highlights the shift away from a gold standard and its consequences, such as altered constraints on money creation, government borrowing, and trade deficits.
Furthermore, Duncan discusses the impact of these changes, including increasing income inequality and implications for inflation and wealth growth. The conversation also touches upon the economic environment shaped by the pandemic and its unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, which led to high inflation rates.
Despite concerns about high inflation, the economic recovery led to significant wealth growth, enough to pay off the national debt with some money left over.
They discuss the implications of the stimulus and the lingering effects it continues to have on the economy. Richard is a proponent of establishing a sovereign wealth fund for the United States to finance investments in new industries and technologies, such as artificial intelligence, nanotech, biotech, fusion, quantum computing, and genetic engineering. The U.S. currently invests half as much in research and development compared to decades ago, leading to a slowdown in productivity and economic growth.
Additionally, Richard raises concerns about potential market vulnerability from lower interest rates due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade and inflated asset prices in the U.S. He emphasizes the significance of establishing a sovereign wealth fund for the United States and encourages listeners to visit his website, Richard Dunkin Economics dot com, for more information on economic events and their potential market impacts.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:02 - Fed & US Money Creation12:40 - The Pandemic Inflation17:33 - Growth & Technology22:05 - Pandemic Choice & Wealth32:01 - Recent Inflation Causes42:14 - Sovereign Wealth Funds53:28 - Buyers of U.S. Debt?1:03:35 - Dollar Reserve Status1:08:24 - Fed Rate Cut Decision1:12:35 - Yen Carry Trade1:16:09 - Wealth/Income Ratio1:19:18 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/Twitter: https://x.com/papermoneyecon
Newsletter Offer:https://richardduncaneconomics.comHit subscribe and enter coupon code 'Value' For a 50% discount.
Richard Duncan is the author of four books analyzing the causes and the effects of the economic crises that have brought the global economy to the brink of collapse during recent decades.
The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (John Wiley & Sons, 2003, updated 2005), predicted the global economic disaster that began in 2008 with extraordinary accuracy. It was an international bestseller. The Corruption of Capitalism: A strategy to re-balance the global economy and restore sustainable growth (CLSA Books, 2009) described the long series of US policy mistakes responsible for the Crisis of 2008. The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (John Wiley & Sons, 2012) introduced an important new analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explained all aspects of the global economic crisis that began in 2008.
His latest book is The Money Revolution: How to Finance the Next American Century (John Wiley & Sons, 2022).
Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the Worl... -
Tom welcomes back experienced trader and creator of ProGoldTrader, Drew Rathgeber to explore issues within the Gold and Silver industry. Drew shares his industry journey, starting in spot markets 20 years ago and transitioning to futures in 2006. He emphasizes regulation's importance, particularly for consumer protections and audits.
They discuss problems like excessive spreads exploiting elderly clients and the need for education. Drew shares his views on social media influencers and their good and bad aspects. The conversation also covers spot markets versus regulated futures markets.
Drew talks about Monex, a company offering the Atlas precious metals investment program. This financing mechanism targeted unsophisticated investors and generated revenue through high fees on trades, resulting in many millions in losses for customers.
They discuss investing in physical gold versus futures contracts, with smaller investments favoring physical gold due to absence of counterparty risk. The conversation touches upon issues surrounding precious metals investments using retirement funds, specifically Roth IRAs and 401K programs. He stresses the importance of understanding spreads and fees in these transactions.
Drew discusses a retired lady and why she was disqualified from opening a futures trading account. Drew emphasizes the importance of understanding risks involved in trading, especially with leverage positions. They briefly touch on contract sizes and risk management strategies, including removing market and volatility risks, using options for downside protection, and being cautious during uncertain times like Fed announcements. He stresses the importance of staying informed and managing risks based on individual comfort levels.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:57 - Trust & Drew's Background4:18 - Regulations & Risks9:22 - Changes in PM Industry14:39 - History at Monex19:42 - Fractional Metal Programs?23:45 - Futures Markets & Leverage27:40 - Physical Delivery & Spreads37:08 - Other Programs & Cautions42:55 - Fraud Risks & Criteria47:12 - Futures Contract Sizes50:03 - Managing Risk52:03 - Investor Behavior 202456:40 - Lessons Learned1:01:42 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Drew Rathgeber emphasizes the importance of consumer protections and education in the Gold and Silver industry.
He highlights the risks and benefits of investing in precious metals through spot markets versus regulated futures markets.
Drew shares warnings about high-fee investment schemes that like to 'churn' naive investors.
Guest Links:Website: https://progoldtrader.comEmail: [email protected] Online: https://progoldtrader.com/open-an-account/
Drew Rathgeber got his start trading spot precious metals at one of the nation's largest bullion dealers in Newport Beach, CA in 2004. Then transitioned to futures in 2006, specializing in precious metals. Now is the owner and president of ProGoldTrader.com, which specializes in trading software and execution designed just for bullion traders.
ProGoldTrader.com is a dba of ProFuturesTrader.com
TRADING FUTURES, OPTIONS ON FUTURES, AND FUTURES SPREADS INVOLVE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL TRADERS AND/OR INVESTORS. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ACCOUNTS CAN AND MAY LOSE MONEY. ONLY GENUINE RISK CAPITAL, MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE, SHOULD BE USED. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Gary Savage, a retired entrepreneur and commodity trader, about the current state and future prospects of metals markets, specifically focusing on gold and silver. Savage underscores the importance of considering larger time frames for understanding gold market trends, emphasizing a potential 13-year base pattern in gold and impending breakout. He anticipates gold prices to reach at least $7,000 and potentially $10,000 due to this significant base size. Silver's volatility could lead to larger proportional moves, with expectations of it reaching new all-time highs towards the end of the bull market.
Savage differentiates gold and silver markets based on distinct fundamental drivers, discussing the potential implications of the war cycle, inflation, and recent dollar trend following the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting. He encourages investors to remain attentive for a significant move upwards in metals and advises buying physical gold and silver before the anticipated breakout.
The discussion covers the significance of COT reports as a tool. Gary highlights the potential leverage from miners, but ultimately suggests that physical precious metals could yield greater gains in the long run. He delves into the impact of the upcoming FOMC meeting and the potential for a recession.
Mr. Savage shares his belief in the precious metals sector's potential benefits due to the significant gold breakout, encouraging listeners to maintain a broad perspective despite market fluctuations. He dismisses energy, uranium, Bitcoin, and the stock market for investment purposes, favoring precious metals amid geopolitical tensions that could lead to a possible World War III. Savage concludes by urging listeners to stay focused on the big picture.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Big Picture on Metals3:00 - Comparing Silver & Gold5:12 - Commodities & Metals Diverge6:37 - Dollar Fundamentals8:26 - Gold Charts & Cycles12:19 - Silver Chart & Outlook15:22 - Trades & Timelines19:00 - COT Reports Uses?20:18 - Silver Miners & Leverage22:40 - Dollar & Other Currencies24:23 - Fed & Recession?28:03 - War Cycle & Elections30:00 - Regression Analysis33:50 - Metals Sector Divergence35:35 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gary Savage highlights a potential 13-year gold base pattern and impending breakout, expecting prices to reach at least $7,000.
Silver's volatility could lead to larger proportional moves, reaching new all-time highs towards the end of the bull market.
Significant move upwards in metals, invest in physical gold and silver before the anticipated breakout, and maintain a long-term perspective.
Guest LinksTwitter: https:/twitter.com/garysavage1Blog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videosWebsite: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/login/
Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far).
Gary's renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold, Gold-Eagle, Investing, 321Gold, Keyport, SilverSeek, TFMetalsReport, FuturesMag, ResourceInvestor, Silver-Phoenix, BayStreetBlog, BeforeItsNews, ETFDailyNews, TalkMarkets, JuniorMiningAnalyst, MarketOracle.UK, SafeHaven, GoldSeek, Mining, -
Tom welcomes back Bob Moriarty to engage in a discussion about global conflicts and their potential impact on world affairs. Moriarty raises concerns over the United States' involvement in Ukraine and Israel, as well as the possibility of China invading Taiwan. He emphasizes the critical nature of these events and expresses his belief in the imminence of such conflicts, which could involve multiple nations.
Moriarty questions America's preparedness for war on multiple fronts and criticizes its past military interventions. Additionally, he discusses the importance of intelligence reports and geopolitical factors shaping world events. The conversation touches upon the upcoming US election, with both individuals expressing concern over potential chaos and uncertainty surrounding it.
Moriarty advocates for owning gold as an insurance policy against economic instability. Moriarty discusses investing in gold and mining stocks, focusing on the historical premium of platinum over gold, volatility of silver, and potential opportunities in junior silver miners.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:56 - Risks & Coming Volatility4:40 - Conflicts & Reports10:10 - China, Taiwan, & Logistics13:35 - Elections & Conflict Risks17:55 - Crises & Many Black Swans21:40 - Totalitarian Moves24:01 - Implications for Gold25:40 - Mining Equities & Value28:10 - Miners During Rate Cuts29:49 - Fundamentals Vs. FOMO32:04 - Inflation Waves & Cash?35:38 - Commodities Undervalued36:52 - The Chart39:20 - Finding Great Miners41:57 - Silver & Returns45:14 - Why Platinum?49:14 - Be Prudent & Prepared50:33 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Moriarty voices concerns over U.S. involvement in Ukraine, Israel, and China's potential invasion of Taiwan.
He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for multiple front wars and criticizes past U.S. military interventions.
Moriarty advocates for owning gold as an economic stability insurance and discusses investing opportunities in gold and mining stocks.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comWebsite: http://www.321energy.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3
Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records. - Laat meer zien
