Afleveringen
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Tom welcomes back Francis Hunt, known as "The Market Sniper," to discuss the importance of understanding various time frames in market analysis, particularly for gold and silver. He emphasizes that being bullish or bearish can vary across short-term, medium-term, and long-term perspectives. Hunt highlights the technical patterns he uses to predict market movements, such as head-and-shoulder setups and falling wedges, which help identify key entry and exit points.
Hunt is long-term bullish on gold due to its role as a hedge against debt-based economic collapse. He warns that while gold may experience short-term corrections, it remains a strategic investment for preserving wealth. He advises investors to avoid putting lump sums into the market at current highs and instead use dollar-cost averaging or wait for pullbacks.
Francis touches on silver, noting that it has broken out of a significant resistance level but could face volatility. Hunt suggests maintaining a diversified portfolio with a focus on gold as the primary investment, while considering silver when specific technical indicators align. Additionally, he mentions platinum as a potential high-performing asset due to its scarcity and current technical setup.
Hunt cautions against the risks of totalitarianism and loss of privacy in the coming economic crisis. He advises listeners to prepare for both financial and societal challenges by reducing debt, preserving capital, and staying informed about global trends. He emphasizes the importance of adapting strategies based on changing market conditions and highlights the need for a holistic approach to wealth preservation.
The interview concludes with Hunt encouraging listeners to stay vigilant and proactive in their financial planning, emphasizing that while times ahead may be challenging, careful preparation can help navigate the storm.
Talking Points From This Episode0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Confusion & Timeframes15:12 - Accelerating Cycles/Debt21:00 - Yields & U.S. Tariffs25:40 - Debt & Dollar Balance28:37 - Gold & Oil Dynamics36:33 - Fed & Economic Data40:19 - Rates & Market Forces44:19 - Chart of Silver50:20 - Platinum Outlook54:30 - Preps & Wrap Up
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniperTwitter: https://twitter.com/thecryptosniperWebsite: https://themarketsniper.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?
He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.
Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.
He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a v... -
Tom welcomes back Peter Schiff, the CEO and Chief Economist of Euro Pacific Asset Management, Chairman of Schiff Gold, and host of Schiff Radio to the show.
Peter discusses inflation, central banking policies, and the implications of stagflation on the economy. He emphasizes that inflation is fundamentally caused by an expansion in the money supply and credit, rather than rising prices alone. Schiff argues that the Federal Reserve's actions, including quantitative easing and low interest rates, have fueled inflation and exacerbated economic instability.
Schiff critiques the government's handling of inflation, noting that it often deflects blame onto businesses or labor unions instead of addressing the root causes. He warns that continued deficit spending and debt accumulation will lead to higher inflation and potentially a financial crisis. Schiff also highlights the role of tariffs and trade policies in affecting prices and trade deficits, though he doubts their effectiveness in fundamentally altering the economic landscape.
The discussion turns to gold and precious metals as a hedge against inflation. Schiff notes that despite record earnings from gold mining companies, investor sentiment remains cautious, with many preferring speculative assets like cryptocurrencies or AI stocks. He believes this presents an opportunity for investors to capitalize on undervalued gold mining stocks before prices rise significantly.
Schiff also touches on the potential impact of rising interest rates in Japan and the yen carry trade, warning that unwinding these positions could disrupt global markets. Additionally, he discusses the role of central banks in buying gold as a form of portfolio insurance and predicts continued demand for precious metals as investors seek safe havens amid economic uncertainty.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Causes of Inflation9:40 - Fed Inflation Targets15:09 - Fed & Data Dependence17:37 - Lower Dollar Problem22:10 - Deepseek AI & China24:33 - Overvaluations27:36 - Tariff Threats & Trade31:18 - Japanese Bond Yields34:40 - LBMA & Lease Rates38:33 - Country of Origin41:47 - Gold Chinese Insurers48:38 - Miners and Earnings58:12 - Thoughts on Silver1:00:59 - Wrap Up
Tallking Points From This Episode
Inflation is caused by money supply expansion, not just rising prices, and central banks are the primary culprits.
Gold and precious metals offer protection against inflation, with mining stocks currently undervalued despite strong fundamentals.
Economic instability and stagflation risks loom large, driven by debt, deficits, and ineffective monetary policies.
Guest Links:Podcast: https://schiffradio.com/Website: https://schiffgold.com/Website: https://schiffsovereign.com/Website: https://europac.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PeterSchiffYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIjuLiLHdFxYtFmWlbTGQRQ
Peter Schiff is an honorary chairman of SchiffGold, founder of Euro Pacific Asset Management, and host of The Peter Schiff Show. Peter is an economic forecaster and investment advisor influenced by the free-market Austrian School of economics. He is one of the few forecasters who accurately and publicly predicted the 2007 housing market collapse and subsequent 2008 financial crisis. His latest best-selling book, The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy - How to Save Yourself and Your Country, warns that the 2008 crisis was just the prelude to a larger sovereign debt crisis in the United States that may lead to a collapse of the US dollar. Peter recommends long-term investment in foreign markets with sound fiscal policies, as well as global commodities including buying gold, silver and other physical precious metals. -
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Tom welcomes back Robert Sinn to share his background in precious metals, junior mining, and biotech investing.
Robert emphasizes the attractiveness of gold mining equities due to their underappreciated nature and the potential for significant returns. He highlights that the sector is less competitive compared to mainstream stocks like Apple or Microsoft, offering investors an edge through lower competition and fewer institutional players.
Sinn structures his portfolio by considering market capitalization and volatility, allocating smaller percentages to high-risk junior miners (e.g., 2-3%) and larger allocations to more stable major miners (e.g., 10%). He prioritizes risk management, focusing on potential losses before profit opportunities. He also advises against holding overly concentrated positions in volatile stocks, suggesting that investors should cap their exposure based on market feedback.
He touches on the macroeconomic backdrop, particularly the secular bull market for gold driven by central banks' increased demand, especially from China and India. Sinn notes that gold's role as a safe-haven asset is becoming more pronounced amid global uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. He also discusses the potential impact of tariffs and trade policies under the current administration on gold prices, suggesting that these factors could further drive demand.
Sinn critiques the use of ETFs like GDX to gauge the entire mining sector, arguing that such funds are skewed towards larger companies and may not reflect broader trends. Instead, he advocates for a more nuanced approach, examining individual company performance and pipeline projects.
He also touches on the importance of China's gold accumulation, which has significantly influenced global markets, and the potential for a physical short squeeze in gold. While acknowledging the complexity of predicting such events, Sinn believes that gold's role as a hedge against inflation and economic instability will continue to drive its value.
Finally, Sinn underscores the need for investors to understand both macroeconomic trends and micro-level company fundamentals, emphasizing the importance of staying informed and adaptable in a rapidly changing market landscape.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - A Mining Equity Focus3:25 - Volatility & Risk5:46 - Doubling Down?8:35 - Wild Market Signals11:55 - Mine Lifecycles15:26 - Sentiment & Interest18:56 - Market Contrasts21:00 - New Investor Advice23:02 - Mergers & Mine Cycles25:06 - Problems With The GDX26:46 - Deposits & Economics28:14 - Royalties & Streams28:48 - Macro Outlook & Gold34:24 - Asian Gold Demand35:37 - LBMA & Deliveries?39:00 - Silver Demand?41:18 - His Primary Focus?44:37 - The 4th Turning46:19 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Robert highlights gold mining equities' potential for significant returns due to underappreciation and fewer institutional players.
Sinn advocates for a balanced miner portfolio, allocating smaller percentages to high-risk junior miners and larger percentages to stable major miners. He emphasizes risk management.
Sinn discusses the gold bull market driven by central bank demand, safe-haven status in uncertain times, and potential impact of tariffs on prices.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/CEOTechnicianSubstack: https://robertsinn.substack.comCEO.CA: https://ceo.ca/@goldfingerYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV_3gUkg2hbl-Fni4XxNb_Q
Robert Sinn is a 20+ year market veteran whose research and insights are followed by hedge fund managers, investment professionals and thousands of readers/viewers across the globe. His introduction to the stock market came in 2003 when his Father shared a research note on a company called Northern Dynasty Minerals (NDM). Shares proceeded to rise more than 1000% over the next nine months. Robert was hooked, and the Junior mining sector became an obsession. -
Tom welcomes back David Murrin for a comprehensive analysis of global geopolitical dynamics, economic trends, and historical cycles. He begins by discussing the terminal decline of American power, comparing it to Britain's post-empire struggles in the 1970s. Murrin argues that President Trump's policies, while intended to revitalize the nation, face significant headwinds due to high inflation, debt dynamics, and geopolitical challenges. He warns against the erosion of democratic institutions under Trump's administration, highlighting concerns about executive overreach and constitutional challenges.
Murrin contrasts the U.S.'s declining influence with China's rise, noting that while both nations confront internal issues—such as demographic challenges for China and systemic decay for the U.S. China's military advancements and strategic initiatives position it to challenge American hegemony. He expresses concern about potential conflicts in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, which could escalate tensions and disrupt global oil markets.
In discussing monetary systems, Murrin emphasizes the role of gold as a safe haven during times of instability, predicting significant price increases for precious metals. He critiques cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, arguing that they have reached speculative peaks and are likely to decline due to the shifting economic landscape.
Murrin also addresses the Middle East conflict, advocating for peaceful resolutions through carrots rather than sticks. He suggests that offering incentives for displaced populations could foster stability, contrasting this with punitive measures. He laments the failure of international efforts in Ukraine, urging a more strategic approach akin to historical lend-lease programs.
Throughout the interview, Murrin underscores the inevitability of cyclical conflicts and the challenges of breaking these patterns. However, he holds out hope for external interventions or technological breakthroughs that could alter this trajectory. He encourages listeners to engage with his work critically, fostering dialogue and understanding in an era marked by uncertainty and rapid change.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:58 - Empire Cycle Status6:43 - Monetary Status9:32 - DOGE & Cutting11:46 - Freedom Threats?13:36 - Carrot Stick Approach16:27 - Dollar System Failing?17:40 - U.S. Status & China22:13 - China Demographics24:50 - Gold & Global Reset?27:58 - Gold Cycle Timing30:53 - Bitcoin Thoughts33:12 - Economic Realities36:33 - Iran & Middle East42:32 - Palestine Solution?45:45 - Cycle Inevitability?49:37 - Challenging Thoughts52:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
America's terminal decline mirrors Britain’s post-empire struggles, facing high inflation and debt.
China's military expansion poses a direct challenge to U.S. hegemony and global stability.
Gold will rise as the liquidity cycle ends, while Bitcoin faces a speculative bubble collapse.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastrWebsite: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/Instagram: https://instagram.com/murrinraw
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, -
Tom welcomes back Gary Savage, founder of Smart Money Tracker Premium, to discuss the current state and future outlook of gold and silver markets. Savage shares his insights on market cycles, volatility, and how investors can navigate this evolving landscape.
Savage begins by highlighting the significance of an eight-year cycle in precious metals, which he believes is nearing its peak. The cycle, which started in October 2022, is expected to reach a parabolic top within two to four years, potentially pushing gold prices as high as $7,000 or even $10,000. While this phase will be volatile, Savage emphasizes that it’s crucial for investors to stay focused on the long-term trend rather than getting distracted by short-term corrections.
Silver, according to Savage, is currently suppressed around $33 per ounce due to heavy shorting and manipulation by bullion banks. However, he predicts that once silver breaks through this resistance level, a strong short squeeze could push prices significantly higher, possibly reaching $40 or beyond. Savage urges investors to position themselves before this breakout occurs, as chasing gains after the fact could be costly.
Savage also discusses intermediate cycle timing, suggesting that the current rally in gold and silver may top out between late March and mid-April. While corrections are inevitable, he stresses that bull markets are defined by higher highs, so missing a few weeks of gains won’t derail long-term success. He advises investors to avoid panic during downturns and instead use these moments as opportunities to accumulate more assets.
Throughout the interview, Savage emphasizes the importance of managing recency bias and staying disciplined in the face of market volatility. He reminds listeners that while the ride may be bumpy, the rewards for those who stay invested are substantial. As the bull market progresses, Savage believes silver will outperform gold and mining stocks, making it a strategic choice for investors seeking outsized gains.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - The Bigger Picture3:00 - Eight Year Cycle6:00 - Gold & Market Volatility9:20 - Momentum & Gold Outlook13:00 - Silver Possibilities15:30 - Timing Assessment19:00 - Gold/Silver Ratio Uses23:40 - Monitoring the Miners26:40 - Human Nature & BIAS30:00 - Fundamentals & Sentiment34:45 - Tops, Debt, & Fed Policy39:30 - Silver Opportunity43:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gary explains how an eight-year cycle, starting in October 2022, is driving this gold bull market.
With silver currently suppressed at $33, Savage predicts a massive breakout that could push prices up to $40 or beyond.
Corrections are part of bull markets. Savage advises staying disciplined and avoid panic during downturns.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://x.com/garysavage1Blog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videosWebsite: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/login/
Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far).
Gary's renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold, Gold-Eagle, Investing, 321Gold, Keyport, SilverSeek, TFMetalsReport, FuturesMag, ResourceInvestor, Silver-Phoenix, BayStreetBlog, -
Tom welcomes back Don Durrett, author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss the current state of gold, silver, and the broader economic developments.
During their conversation, gold reached an all-time high, with spot prices near $2863 and futures above $2900. Silver is trading around $32.26, while the HUI (Hard Rock Miners' Index) stood at 328.
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) reported delivery delays of four to eight weeks, indicating potential shortages. Lease rates have spiked to five percent, a significant increase from the usual one percent or less. Don suggested this could be due to LBMA supply issues.
Don emphasized silver's role as a proxy for gold, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty. He warned of potential shortages in silver, driven by competing demands from investors and industrial fabricators. This could lead to dramatic price increases if a fear trade begins.
Despite strong stock market performance, Don expressed concerns about an impending "rug pull," where the market could crash due to economic factors like inflation, high interest rates, and tariff policies. He highlighted issues such as consumer discretionary spending constraints, commercial real estate overhangs, and rising bankruptcies in small businesses.
The Fed's inability to cut rates due to inflation concerns was discussed, along with potential implications for the economy. Don speculated that the Fed might resort to quantitative easing (QE) in response to a market crash, though he questioned their ability to manage regional bank crises.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:11 - Gold at New Highs2:58 - LBMA Delivery Issues10:00 - Thoughts on Silver16:42 - Institutional Buyers19:16 - Equity Mkt. Concerns23:20 - Tariffs China/Europe?27:17 - Fed & Inflation33:09 - Tariffs on Bonds?35:52 - Equity Valuations37:10 - Banks & Retail40:02 - Employment & Hires42:05 - Coming Rug Pull44:50 - A.I. & Tech48:00 - Fed's Reactions51:48 - Cheap Miners?53:46 - Traders Market55:24 - Miner Pyramid59:05 - Royalty Companies?1:05:36 - Physical First1:07:34 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.com/Substack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articlesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com. -
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group, for a thought-provoking episode. The conversation begins around the far-reaching implications of tariffs on markets, industries, and economies. Tariffs are not one-size-fits-all, with their impact hinging on both the specific country and metal involved. Jeff expresses his disdain for tariffs, citing their detrimental effects on economic activity and inflation. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 serves as a cautionary tale, illustrating the devastating consequences on imports, exports, and both the US economy and the global marketplace during the Great Depression. The threat of retaliation could trigger a US recession, while gold and silver might experience heightened demand due to market uncertainty. Tariffs involve importers bearing added costs, instigating inflation, complicating international trade, and affecting base metals.Two potential solutions for government funding - Value Added Tax (VAT) and gold-backed bonds - are examined, yet concerns over regressiveness, economic downturns, and practicality linger. Central banks have turned to gold as a means of securing dollar reserves amid past economic instability under the gold standard. Recent geopolitical developments have prompted some Eastern European countries to stockpile gold for safety against external pressures like Russia. The surge in demand for physical gold within the US is accompanied by a transition from London to New York, giving rise to borrowing and EFP premiums as markets grapple with economic and political uncertainties.Jeff discusses the problems inherent in all financial system and why those problems would also exist under a gold standard. He argues that the Fed has played an important role in reducing the severity of economic contractions. However, he cautions that the only financial system in history that has not failed is this the current one.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - Tariff Discussion12:10 - Impacts on Metals?14:38 - Various Scenarios19:58 - Inflationary/Recessionary26:03 - Fast Track U.S. Industry?28:13 - Effects on Currencies?31:13 - Recession Outlook?36:00 - Appalling Statistics38:00 - Income Tax & Trump42:07 - A Gold Backed Bond?45:49 - Fed & Depressions52:13 - C.B. Gold Reserves56:39 - CPM Client Concerns?59:55 - EFP Premiums & Supply1:07:48 - Reality & Forecast1:10:00 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeTariffs' detrimental effects on economic activity and inflation are discussed, with Smoot-Hawley Act as a historical reference.Central banks turn to gold as a hedge against economic instability; some countries stockpile for geopolitical safety.US recession potential and increased demand for gold and silver due to tariff uncertainty.Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLCWebsite: https://www.cpmgroup.com/Questions Email: [email protected] Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videosJeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.He has advised many of the world's largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.
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In this episode on Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Jaime Carrasco. Jaime is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. They discuss the global economic landscape and the significance of gold in today's context. Carrasco expresses his belief that Trump's election and proposed policies could lead to a reset of debt and potential devaluation of US dollars held in treasuries around the world. He emphasizes the importance of understanding history, as previous periods saw significant increases in dividends from gold mining companies during times of monetary instability.
Carrasco encourages investors to consider gold as a hedge against inflation, purchasing power loss, and political instability. He also recommends silver mining companies due to their current undervaluation compared to gold. Central banks are increasingly buying gold as a safe haven asset, and Trump's actions are aimed at rebuilding America for Americans, possibly necessitating a full reset. The location of US gold reserves and geopolitical issues like China's policy in Latin America, Europe's response to immigration, and the US-China-Russia alignment are significant sociological factors affecting the global economy. Despite the current uncertainty, Carrasco advocates for a decentralized world where nations can thrive and encourages investors to consider gold, silver, and Bitcoin as financial lifeboats.
Talking Points From This Episode0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Current World State3:30 - S&P Bond Chart10:12 - Gold Bonds & Treasury15:45 - Free Cash Flow Chart19:23 - Hyper Financial World26:00 - Gold & Silver31:02 - Silver Volatility34:02 - Shelton & Blockchain36:20 - Resource Sec. Valuations38:13 - 40-Year Shift?42:22 - A Financial Reset?44:52 - Bonds in a Reset46:22 - PMs & Tariff Risks49:18 - A Double Edged Sword51:53 - Trump Implementation53:30 - European Problems56:00 - Negotiating Peace?1:02:09 - Surviving Inflation1:04:10 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/ijcarrascoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/Website: https://harbourfrontwealth.com
Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.
Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.
Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies.
"Like one's financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails." -
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Kevin Wadsworth and Patrick Karim for a discussion on the probably capital rotation event coming soon to commodities generally and the stock market. They explore evidence suggesting gold's outperformance over key indicators like US money supply, the dollar index, and major indices such as S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Russell.
Kevin and Patrick highlight that significant shifts occur when sectors underperform gold for extended periods (10-15 years), often leading to substantial drops before recovery. They caution Bitcoin holders about potential underperformance during this rotation, a sector historically correlated with tech stocks.
The conversation delves into the historical performance of SPX and NASDAQ versus gold, noting tech stocks and Bitcoin's significant drawdowns but eventual recoveries. Yet, these assets often lag behind gold for prolonged periods, resulting in real losses for investors holding them.
The charting duo emphasize the importance of comparing any investment assets to the benchmark of gold, to gauge market shifts. They advocate investing in gold during market confusion and stress understanding that gold is currently in a bull era.
Additionally, they discuss the importance of risk management, patience, waiting for clear trends before entering markets, and avoiding concentration in single investments or chasing bottoms and tops of markets.
Ultimately, Kevin and Patrick stress patience, a long-term perspective, and applying 'the gold test' before any investment decision.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:20 - Capital Rotation Event2:07 - Capital Rotation Charts12:57 - Equities Vs. Gold14:18 - Bitcoin Correlations22:00 - Killing Narratives24:40 - Ratio Analysis & Trends28:34 - Gold Vs. Everything32:24 - DXY Vs. CPI Chart38:48 - A Technical Approach44:18 - Public Debt Analysis48:23 - Miners & Speculation52:04 - Most Commodities?54:08 - Risks - Tops/Bottoms57:57 - Technicals & Analysis1:04:53 - Entry Points & M.A.1:10:09 - Uranium Miners1:12:06 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/NorthStarChartsWebsite: https://NorthStarBadCharts.comYouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarCharts
Kevin Wadsworth is a seasoned chart trader with over 15 years of experience and a strong following on social media. With a background in meteorology spanning over 30 years, he has worked in various professional roles, including military and civilian weather forecasting. Currently serving as a Civil Contingency Advisor, Kevin provides advanced warning and guidance for life-threatening weather events and collaborates with emergency response teams.
His interest in the financial world was sparked by a colleague in the early 2000s, and he became particularly fascinated after the 2008 financial crash. Drawing parallels between weather forecasting and predicting market movements, Kevin emphasizes the importance of gathering evidence from various sources, much like assessing multiple weather models. His approach focuses on presenting clear, unbiased charts based on the weight of evidence, rather than personal bias.
Kevin's expertise lies in distilling complex information into actionable insights, whether it's forecasting weather patterns or market trends.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/badcharts1Website: https://NorthStarBadCharts.comYouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarCharts
Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick's background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.
His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career. -
In this Palisades interview, host Tom welcomes Trader Ferg, a full-time trader and author of the Trader Ferg Substack, discussing major narrative pivots in the energy market, focusing on topics like electric vehicles versus plug-in hybrids, net-zero projections, China's policy changes on renewable energy subsidies, battery technology shifts from lithium-ion to sodium-ion batteries, platinum group metals, geopolitical impacts like coal's comeback in Germany, and investment implications.
Ferg also delves into the transformative potential of deep learning AI models, expressing excitement about their game-changing impact on technology and markets. Among these innovations, Ferg points to DeepSeek, an open-source AI model that is disrupting the tech industry and challenging major companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook, potentially leading to significant declines in their valuations.
Ferg also discusses platinum's unique market dynamics, noting its unpredictable demand and jurisdictional risks, particularly in key producing regions like South Africa. He emphasizes that new platinum supply is expected to remain limited after 2030. Declining production rates are also affecting industries such as oil and uranium. Despite these challenges, Ferg advises investors to maintain patience and position themselves strategically for future demand.
Ferg identifies under-invested sectors, particularly the U.S. oil and gas industry, as opportunities for growth. He argues that while drilling activity will likely increase during Trump's second term, supply numbers have been overestimated, and demand remains steady but not overly strong. Additionally, Trump's plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could create further demand. Ferg expresses his bullish outlook on oil plays in the market, despite current low prices.
In conclusion, Ferg's investment strategy focuses on identifying major narrative shifts, understanding supply decline rates, and positioning investments to capitalize on demand when markets price it appropriately.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Narratives & Pivots5:30 - Coal & Green Transitions?10:48 - Tariffs & Chinese EVs14:46 - China's A.I. Model21:04 - Sector Valuations?25:39 - Platinum Supply31:48 - Drill Baby Drill!37:03 - Trump & Inflation Risks42:00 - Gold, Rates, & Treasuries46:00 - Gold ETF Holdings48:43 - Resource Investment Risk54:00 - Derisking & Hated Sectors56:56 - Resource Costs & Inflation59:00 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Substack: https://traderferg.substack.com/X: https://x.com/trader_ferg
Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Professor Vince Lanci, MBA Finance and Publisher of the Goldfix Substack, for a discussion on polticis and recent global buying patterns particulary in China. Specifically the significant 'Chinese whale', Zhang Kai Futures. Despite public purchases, China's government has also bought gold clandestinely through other less obvious channels. Goldman Sachs updated projections reveal ongoing gold buying by China, causing market rallies and awareness.
Vince explores Exchange for Physicals (EFPs) and premium spreads in bullion banks, discussing tariff anxiety's potential impact on global physical metal flows. The EFP mechanism links London's physical market to New York's financial center, but tariffs may influence production countries and traders' choices.
Gold prices are expected to reach new all-time highs soon. Vince touches on tariffs' primary impact on silver in the U.S., as a significant importer compared to its gold production.
Furthermore, they discuss America's potential need to become a manufacturing economy again and Trump's plans involving factories, jobs, and exports. The challenge lies in financing this project with China no longer buying U.S. debt. Trump proposes reducing the deficit through energy cost reductions and weakening the dollar through tariffs, but that approach could lead to inflation and deficit issues.
Vince and Tom discuss potential changes in government funding, specifically regarding income taxes versus tariffs. Trump intends to negotiate with other countries using tariffs as leverage for domestic job creation and foreign investment. Vince emphasizes the importance of addressing economic conflicts to prevent escalation into full-blown conflicts.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - China's Gold Whale12:38 - EFP Premiums & Spread25:00 - Supply & Net Imports28:24 - Silver Prices??34:48 - Manufacturing USA43:38 - Driving Dollar Lower47:00 - Tariffs & Income Tax54:54 - Historic Analogies58:03 - Economic World War1:00:47 - Tensions & Risks1:02:40 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
China's government buys gold publicly and clandestinely through various back channels, including commercial banks and SAFE.
Tariffs could significantly impact physical metal flows by influencing where silver is sourced and it's country of origin.
Trump plans to revive American manufacturing through tariffs and changes in income tax.
Guest Links:Website: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://x.com/SorenthekLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://x.com/boobsbullion
Vince Lanci, a seasoned finance professional, has served as Managing Partner at Echobay Partners LLC since 2008. His expertise spans over three decades in metals trading, option analysis, and technology development.
In recent years, Mr. Lanci's insights have been sought after by industry legends. He was invited to be a resident expert on precious metals and option analysis for Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project. In 2017, he co-authored a paper on Energy Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi at the University of Connecticut.
Prior to his current role, from 2004 to 2008, Mr. Lanci served as Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC. During this tenure, he managed the long-short and volatility arbitrage portfolios for the parent Limited Partnership fund.
From 1993 to 2003, Mr. Lanci was the proprietor of Berard Capital LLC, where he led a team of option marketmakers. His earlier career included stints at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff from 1987 to 1993, providing him with a solid foundation in finance.
In 2000, Mr. Lanci co-founded Whentech (originally named Upperhand Technologies LLC) with David Wender. As chief architect of the "Pit-Trader" user interface logic, he played a pivotal role in the company's inception.
Mr. Lanci's thought leadership extends beyond his professional engagements. -
Tom welcomes back Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research at GoldMoney to discuss his insights into the silver market and its relationship with gold prices. He suggests that despite a seemingly undersupplied market, the price disparity between gold and silver does not reflect this reality. Macleod anticipates a significant shift in investor behavior once patience runs thin among those who have already bought into gold but yet to enter the silver market. The role of foreign investors, particularly central banks, in driving gold prices is highlighted. Macleod also emphasizes the importance of understanding the impact of the ongoing credit bubble on financial markets and encourages listeners to consider reducing their exposure to credit.
Alasdair expresses his views on Donald Trump's impact on gold prices, citing increased foreign demand due to Trump's status as an inflationist and his executive orders. However, concerns over tariffs and potential economic repercussions remain. Macleod also touches upon historical examples of tariffs and interest rates and their relationship with an economy's purchasing power. He emphasizes the importance of understanding this connection for investors during the upcoming credit bubble.
Throughout the conversation, Alasdair highlights the importance of considering global economic trends and various factors influencing gold and silver prices. He also discusses the role of speculators versus central banks in driving these markets and the potential for a significant shift once investor sentiment changes.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Trump & Macro Picture10:30 - Trump Inflationist15:26 - Strong Dollar Impact19:24 - Debt, Yields, & Economy26:18 - Global Bubbles & Dollar33:04 - Gold Industry & ETFs36:47 - Speculators & Price39:52 - Tariffs & C.B. Buying?41:49 - Silvers Underperformance49:05 - Tariffs & Consequences50:16 - Silver Supply Outcomes?56:06 - Biggest Bubble & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Alasdair Macleod predicts a shift in investor behavior towards silver due to gold price disparity.
Foreign investors, particularly central banks, influence gold prices significantly.
Macleod emphasizes understanding the impact of credit bubble and reducing exposure to it.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacleodFinanceSubstack: https://substack.com/@macleodfinanceWebsite: https://goldmoney.comResearch: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/
Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money thru demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist.
Alasdair started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm.
Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.
For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman's terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences. -
In this episode, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Coleman during Trump's second term inauguration when markets are closed. Bob discusses significant developments concerning Exchange for Physical Premiums (EFPs) in precious metals markets. The increasing EFP premiums stem from tariff concerns since Trump's campaign days, causing New York futures selling and London physical buying, creating a spread between the spot price and futures price. Trump's rhetoric on fair trade and potential tariffs could impact the 'product of origin', potentially affecting short positions expecting delivery to exchanges and could lead to major losses.
Bob also touches upon the lack of retail interest in gold and silver markets despite their proximity to all-time highs due to changing consumer demographics, unregulated industry practices, and misleading sales tactics. He further discusses potential implications of tariffs on precious metals markets and the shift towards physical metal becoming a more price-dominant theme.
Additionally, they explore the impact of investor behavior and supply constraints on platinum and potential implications of the U.S. administration's involvement in cryptocurrencies. The conversation also highlights increasing demand for precious metals during the Democratic administrations due to concerns over spending and taxes, potential effects of tariffs on the financial system and gold market, volatility in the economy, and central banks' actions as significant themes for 2025, and the possibility of creating stablecoins backed by precious metals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Trump, Trade & EFP5:22 - Tariffs & Origins10:28 - 50+ Year EFP Chart17:30 - EFP Premiums & Covid20:14 - Retail Precious Metals25:45 - Gold & Silver EFP?29:15 - Platinum Markets33:18 - Metals Vs. Meme Coins37:10 - Crypto Credibility39:37 - Monetary Restraint44:55 - 2024 Physical Demand47:13 - U.S. Tariffs & C.B. Gold50:07 - Uncertainties & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Tariffs could drive up EFP premiums in the precious metals market, leading to significant losses and tightened liquidity.
Changing consumer demographics, industry practices, and sales tactics decreased retail interest in gold and silver markets despite high prices.
Potential tariffs, investor behavior, supply constraints, and U.S. involvement in cryptocurrencies could influence metals markets and trends for 2025.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/Presentation: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/blog/deciphering-the-complex-world-of-precious-metal-derivatives-ucits-and-the-shift-from-physical-to-paper-gold-silver
Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security. -
Tom welcomes back Mel Mattison to discuss the economic implications of the new administration under Trump's second term. He expresses skepticism towards government-released data such as CPI numbers and raises concerns about rising inflation and interest rates due to massive deficit spending and debt refinancing. Mel estimates approximately seven to eight trillion dollars will be issued this year for these purposes, with uncertainty surrounding who will buy all this debt. He suggests real inflation numbers may be higher than reported, potentially leading to significant increases in interest rates. The U.S., with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120%, faces a major concern regarding unsustainable levels of interest expenses.
Mel shares his concerns about the historical parallels between the current high debt-to-GDP ratio and that of the post-World War II era, when reductions in debt came from a combination of surprise inflation and interest rate manipulations. The need for fiscal sustainability is discussed, with maintaining a 3% deficit to GDP ratio suggested. However, achieving this through cuts alone is considered unrealistic due to the significant role government spending plays in the economy.
The possibility of a debt reset under new Treasury Secretary Scott Besson is explored, with the need for independence from China's supply chains and essential goods emphasized due to global security competition. The potential for gold and Bitcoin as neutral reserve assets is proposed, along with revaluing gold certificates held by the Federal Reserve and a move towards these assets to lead to significant increases in value.
Mel discusses Bitcoin potentially decoupling from risk assets like QQQ this year due to increasing institutional adoption. Potential consequences of a global debt crisis include a revaluation of currencies through gold or Bitcoin, and economic wartime goals setting the stage for inflationary impulses to return. The need for controlling interest rates and addressing inflation is emphasized, with potential consequences including debt repression, a gold certificate revaluation, and the promotion of stablecoins. Mel predicts a significant crisis leading to market pullbacks and recoveries, while acknowledging the urgency to tackle deficit issues due to their increasing impact on tax receipts and interest expenses.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Economic Strength6:20 - U.S. Debt Holders11:33 - Debt & GDP Extremes15:20 - DOGE Cuts & Deficits21:18 - Debt Reset & BRICS28:08 - Gold Cert. Valuations31:43 - BTC & Gold Potential35:53 - Global Debt & Reserves39:16 - Tariffs Purpose & Trump42:50 - Inflation & Oil Trends46:56 - Trump Power Plays51:34 - Equity Markets Outlook56:35 - Jeffrey Gundlach59:13 - 2025 Possibilities1:01:23 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://www.MelMattison.comTwitter: https://x.com/MelMattison1LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/melmattison/
Mel Mattison is a writer, investor, and financial services veteran. Leveraging over twenty years’ experience in the realm of high finance, he brings real-world authenticity to his fictional narratives. Mel combines this insider knowledge with a critical eye toward the economic forces that shape all our lives. With a knack for deconstructing jargon and making the complex understandable, he sheds light on the sometimes dark and confusing corners of finance. Mel holds an MBA from Duke University and studied creative writing at Loyola University Chicago. His recent novel, Quoz: A Financial Thriller, delivers an epic ride packed with action, intrigue, and a healthy dose of economic realism. -
Tom Bodrovics hosts both Bob Thompson from Raymond James and Larry McDonald, creator of the Bear Traps Report, for a discussion on inflation trends in the G7 economies. They emphasize the unprecedented $16 trillion debt increase since 2008 due to fiscal and monetary responses to crises, which has led to significant inflationary pressures, particularly in energy costs. They argue that the market's response is putting pressure on long-term bonds and the US currency, potentially requiring a hard asset tie for stability.
They also discuss the implications of a strong US dollar for Trump's economic goals, with some factions favoring a weaker dollar. A strong dollar negatively affects U.S. manufacturing exports, hurts companies with sales outside the United States, and forces the Fed to buy bonds, potentially leading to inflation and an economy weakening.
Central banks are increasing their gold purchases and shifting away from US treasuries due to sanctions and mistrust in the US government, which could negatively impact the dollar's strength. Gold stocks have underperformed the S&P 500, but may offer asymmetrical returns as interest rates remain low and inflation normalizes at a higher level.
They discuss historical gold investing regimes and the transition back towards the one where real rates are favorable for gold. They emphasize the importance of recognizing trends, being ahead of the power curve, and investing accordingly. The possibility of the Federal Reserve's inflation target shifting towards 3% is discussed, which could benefit certain investment portfolios in sectors like industrial, metals, materials, oil, and gas.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Fed & Inflation10:18 - Financial Conditions?13:13 - Misplaced Optimism?18:13 - Strong Dollar & Trump?24:56 - C.B. Gold Buying31:30 - Sectors & Momentum34:30 - Entry Points & Markets36:37 - Bull Markets42:03 - Strong/Weak Bull42:54 - Energy Demand & Silver49:03 - Rates & Fed Targets52:30 - Stocks Vs Commodities55:17 - Mining Clock Cycle57:18 - Concluding Thoughts1:01:13 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Unprecedented debt increase contributes to inflationary pressures, particularly in energy costs.
Strong US dollar negatively impacts U.S. manufacturing exports and forces Fed bond buying.
Gold stocks offer asymmetrical returns as interest rates remain low and inflation normalizes.
Bob Thompson Links:Twitter: https://x.com/bobthompsonrjWebsite: https://www.raymondjames.ca/Website: https://bobthompson.ca
When Bob Thompson started university, he thought he was headed towards a career in medicine. He graduated from Simon Fraser University with a Bachelor of Science (BSc), but with his family facing financial adversity, achieving financial security became first an interest and then a passion. Bob is now a Certified Investment Manager and Accredited Investment Fiduciary professional with more than 20 years of experience in the financial services industry.
Over the course of his career, Bob has established himself as a respected portfolio manager and one of Canada's leading authorities on customized investments. With an in-depth knowledge and scientific approach to financial markets, Bob and his team help institutions and select clients to meet their specialized financial goals.
He has won numerous awards for portfolio management, and has established himself as a sought after media resource and industry speaker. He is the author of Stock Market Superstars: Secrets of Canada's Top Stock Pickers, a "must-read" for both investors and portfolio managers. His perspective and insights into markets have been featured in Maclean's, the Globe and Mail and the Financial Post, and he is a popular guest on Bloomberg Canada, Business News Network and CBC News, among others. Bob is also a frequent guest speaker at international investment conferences on portfolio strategy and in specialized investments. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest Laurent Lequeu to the show. Laurent is an indpendent financial consultant and publisher of the Macro Butler Substack. Togther they delve into macroeconomic themes for the year ahead, focusing primarily on the business cycle and its impact on the US economy. The U.S., currently experiencing an inflationary boom due to low interest rates and increased government spending, is expected to face changes with the incoming presidency of Trump, particularly in terms of tariffs which could shift the economy from a boom phase to possibly an inflationary bust.
Using ratios such as S&P to oil, gold to treasuries, and S&P to gold, they evaluate the current economic status in the U.S. and globally. However, potential tariffs could lead to higher costs for U.S. corporations and lower consumer confidence, impacting equity markets and the overall economy.
Despite being in a potentially stagflationary environment by 2022, the US may face an inflationary bust in 2025, with economic trends like unemployment, manufacturing, and inflationary numbers having global implications. Geopolitical events such as U.S.-Russia relations, tensions in the Middle East, and potential war in Asia could also surprise many.
Laurent suggests investing in equities and gold with a significant portion allocated to physical gold during uncertain economic conditions, while managing cash through short-term investment-grade US dollars bonds. He predicts higher treasury yields this year and suggested looking at commodities' performance relative to gold for potential re-ratings.
Laurent expresses doubts about Bitcoin's utility for preserving wealth and encouraged risk management and minimizing drawdowns for investors in the coming years. They also touch upon China's economic situation, the U.S. remaining the strongest major economy due to energy independence and relative political stability. He suggests investing in sectors like oil and gas, aerospace and defense, and perhaps Canadian gold miners should the regulatory environment improve.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Different Perspective2:28 - U.S. Business Cycle5:30 - Tariff Proposals7:22 - Stagflation & Trends10:28 - Conflicts & Risks14:33 - Powell & Trump18:34 - Fed & Liquidity19:40 - Global Econ. Outlook22:44 - Which Assets When24:52 - Gold Equities?29:00 - Gold & Currencies31:44 - Golden Ratios?33:30 - Uranium & Energy?36:56 - Bitcoin/Gold Ratio40:16 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
US economy facing potential shift from boom to bust due to Trump's tariffs.
Investing in equities, gold, and short-term bonds during uncertain economic times.
US to face stagflationary environment by 2022, possible inflationary burst in 2025.
Guest Links:Substack: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/X: https://x.com/TheMacroButler
Laurent Lequeu, an independent financial consultant based in Singapore, specializes in managing wealth for High-Net-Worth Individuals. With a career spanning West and East, Laurent analyzes the world through the lens of the business cycle and its impact on asset class performance in a multi polar world. He also shares his insights through The Macro Butler, a global macro newsletter launched in January 2024. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Tom Luongo, Tom is the producer of the Gold, Goats and Guns newsletter and blog, editor at Newsmax Ultimate Wealth Report, and contributor to Financial Intelligence Report. The Tom's discuss the significant developments during Trump's first term, judge appointments, and Europe's economic instability.
Luongo reflects on the impact of Trump's appointment of conservative judges and the Democrats' efforts to maintain control in certain jurisdictions. He discusses Europe's economic collapse, with concerns about the Euro's free fall, instability in the UK, US-German bond spreads, and tensions between the US and Russia.
Luongo discusses Trump's options regarding a weaker dollar through protection tariffs, deregulation, and lower cost of capital. He explores market volatility due to central bank interventions and speculates on the implications of inflation, political tensions, and changes in power in Canada.
Regarding oil, Luongo critiques undervalued prices and their impact on various economic aspects. He shares his thoughts on Judy Shelton's idea involving gold as collateral on the yield curve as a potential solution to the country's fiscal crisis.
Luongo encourages listeners to focus on solutions rather than problems and discusses differences in economic policies under Powell-led Federal Reserves between Trump and Harris administrations. He expects that 2025 will be a new type of crazy.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Trumps 2nd Term11:07 - Euro Collapse Effects20:02 - Trump & Weaker Dollar27:56 - Dollar Assets & Markets39:46 - Views On America49:00 - DOGE & Reforming Gov't59:20 - Commodity Nations1:05:35 - Inflation & Trump?1:18:00 - Powell's Actions1:21:18 - Restructuring NATO?1:25:24 - Peak Oil & Incentives1:31:56 - Judy Shelton & Gold1:36:50 - Gold Redemptions?1:44:55 - Derailing Trump1:51:29 - 2025 A New Crazy1:55:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Trump's first term marked by conservative judge appointments influencing the court system.
Europe's economic instability causing concerns, potential impact on US investors, and tensions with Russia.
Tom advocates for America to save money through reducing overseas spending, closing military bases, and accepting losses.
Guest Links:Website: https://tomluongo.meTwitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGunsCornerstone Forum: https://www.showpass.com/cornerstone25/
Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian, and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like ZeroHedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine, and Newsmax Media.
Professionally, he has spent a lot of his waking hours inside various analytic laboratories testing your water and soil for contaminants. He watched an industry be created by government fiat and destroyed in the same manner.
He ran for Florida House once and got 2.7% of the vote on Guy Fawkes Day and says, "I've since grown up a lot."
Then he spent 5+ years solving the puzzle of an electroless Nickel-Boron coating that has intriguing wear-resistance properties. Too bad, the coating was better than the company's business model.
Today, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter, in which he attempts to connect the false narratives of geopolitics to viable long-term investment theses.
As for politics, his position is well-known through his past writings at Lewrockwell.com, Seeking Alpha, and the aforementioned erstwhile blogs.
To sum up: "Individuals are the only people with enough knowledge about their own lives to have a hope of making the right decisions for themselves, and no amount of guidance or central planning can help that process along."
He built the house he lives in and raises goats and milks them.
In short, he says, "I'm a libertarian who distrusts all human organizations larger than a two-handed game of poker."
Lastly, -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back long-term contrarian investor and entrepreneur Simon Mikhailovich for a discussion centered around first principles, focusing on precious metals, commodities, economics, geopolitics, trade, and monetary matters. The conversation begins with the acknowledgement of high levels of uncertainty and complexity, making accurate forecasts challenging.
Mikhailovich distinguishes between speculating on precious metals versus using them as a reserve asset. For speculation, market drivers are pertinent. However, for gold as a reserve asset, its unique property as the only financial asset without a counterparty makes it inversely correlated to confidence and trust in other people's promises.
The conversation touches upon the concept of the fourth turning and where we are in this cycle. Mikhailovich underscores the significance of understanding current problems before predicting future demand for gold. He also discusses how post-World War II arrangements have led to the United States' hegemonic role economically and militarily, and the start of financialization and globalization.
Mikhailovich raises concerns about understated inflation and its potential impact on real economic growth or contraction. He also highlights the lack of clear guidance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell in navigating through uncertain conditions.
They explore the winners and losers of the global economy, with tactical gains for Wall Street investors, technology industries, and certain countries like China. However, working people have been losing due to job outsourcing. Mikhailovich mentions China's growing power and desire for independence from the United States as potential challenges to the current economic order.
The conversation delves into geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with borders becoming less inviolable after World War One and World War Two. The Suez Canal's declining traffic and resulting increased costs serve as an example of inflationary pressures.
Mikhailovich discusses the significance of gold as a financial asset and its increasing demand, particularly from China and other countries, as a response to a loss of confidence in the global financial system. He also mentions the relationship between digital currencies like Bitcoin and the US dollar, suggesting that regulatory actions could impact their independence from the dollar and the broader financial system. Lastly, Simon emphasizes understanding the complexities, considering various data points, focusing on resiliency, and looking at first principles.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Uncertainties & Metals4:22 - The Fourth Turning9:00 - Statistics & Reality17:00 - Wars, Rumors & Borders26:47 - Economic Fragility33:55 - Gold & Eastern Buying38:30 - Trump & U.S. Dollar41:18 - Gold & Confidence50:07 - Trump & Bond Markets53:56 - World Has Changed1:03:02 - Inflation Vs. Panic1:05:20 - Socialism & Competence1:10:02 - A Serious Situation1:13:13 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold as a reserve asset is inversely correlated to confidence in other people's promises.
Understanding current problems before predicting future demand for gold is crucial.
Concerns about understated inflation, lack of clear guidance from Jay Powell, and China's growing power pose challenges.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://c.com/S_MikhailovichWebsite: https://www.bullionreserve.com
Simon A. Mikhailovich is a co-founder, lead manager of The Bullion Reserve, and a director. Mr. Mikhailovich is an entrepreneur and contrarian investor who predicted and profited from the financial crises of 2000 and 2008. Before co-founding TBR in 2014, Mr. Mikhailovich co-founded Eidesis Capital, a special situations investment firm. Between 1998 and 2014, the Eidesis team deployed over $2.5B of capital through special opportunity funds focused on high yield corporate bonds and loans, credit derivatives, distressed CDOs and MBS, and gold. -
Tom welcomes Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, to discuss commodities and their prospects for 2025. McGlone acknowledges challenges such as lower oil and grain prices, harming producers due to a global surplus and decreasing Chinese demand driven by electric vehicle adoption. He anticipates continued declines in industrial metals like copper and explores geopolitical risks, particularly market implications of tensions between the US and adversaries - China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. McGlone suggests gold as a prudent investment due to its performance during volatile markets when stocks and Bitcoin underperform.
McGlone discusses technological advancements and their impact on the economy. He suggests an investment strategy of rotating between gold and Bitcoin at highs and lows based on their current divergence in performance. McGlone expresses concerns over Bitcoin's excessive ETF inflows as a sign of market speculation. Regarding silver, he suggests the silver-gold ratio should be higher based on volatility and historical patterns, with potential implications if China buys silver through ETFs to address economic challenges. Anticipating potential corrections in the US stock market, increased unemployment, and bond yield issues could lead to a different silver-gold ratio.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Commodities in 20253:22 - Global Demand Decline5:08 - U.S. & China Deficits10:38 - Commodities & Tariffs16:34 - Bitcoin 'Indicator'20:22 - Tether & Treasuries26:07 - Gold/Bitcoin Ratio30:28 - ETF Demand & Flows33:16 - Market Correction?37:04 - 2025 Gold Target39:42 - Thoughts on Silver42:25 - Concluding Thoughts43:45 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-mcglone-a8442513/
Mike McGlone is a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional service at BI(GO). Mr. McGlone specializes in the broad investible commodity markets. Mr. McGlone joined Bloomberg in 2016 with over 25 years of futures and commodity trading and investing experience, beginning at the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to joining Bloomberg, he was a head of US research at ETF Securities. Prior to ETF Securities, Mr. McGlone headed the commodity business at S&P Indices. His previous roles included head of futures research at ABN Amro and VP research, analyst, trader, sales at Aubrey G. Lanston / IBJ Futures.
Mr. McGlone has an MBA from DePaul University in Chicago and bachelor's of science and arts degrees from Illinois State University. He is a CFA Charter holder and has earned a Financial Risk Manager designation. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Lobo Tiggre, the author and publisher of TheIndependentSpeculator.com. Lobo leads a team that provides independent due diligence and evaluations for investors, filling a role similar to consumer reports or brokers. He discusses the growth of their business despite industry downturns, reflecting on Rick Rule's advice about building teams and filling different market niches.
The conversation shifts to macroeconomic topics, including the impact of fiscal dominance on monetary policy and potential economic consequences. Lobo shares his past prediction of a U.S. recession in 2024 being incorrect and credits Lynn Alden's fiscal dominance thesis for ongoing deficit spending.
Lobo also explains the implications of soft landings, potential stagflation or reflationary economies, and the role of copper as an economic indicator. He emphasizes the importance of current market trends over ideological theories and due diligence in investment decisions. He shares his highest conviction trades for gold, uranium, and copper for various years, with copper being his top pick for 2025 based on bullish economic context and the favorable supply-demand fundamentals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - The Gang of Rogues5:16 - Macro Picture & Signs9:40 - Fed & Fiscal Dominance14:30 - Voting Harder16:44 - Industrial Recession?23:53 - Inflation Waves32:14 - Dr. Copper?36:57 - Fundamentals Matter?42:00 - Copper Grades & Costs45:45 - Pre Prod. Sweet Spot52:20 - Promises Vs. Reality55:14 - High Conviction Play58:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Lobo's team provides independent investment evaluations, filling a role like consumer reports or brokers.
Macroeconomic topics discussed include fiscal dominance, recession predictions, and economic implications.
Copper is his top pick for 2025 due to bullish economic context and favorable supply-demand fundamentals.
Guest Links:Website: https://independentspeculator.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/duediligenceguyFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/
Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.
Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.
A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them. - Laat meer zien
