Afleveringen
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Professor Vince Lanci, MBA Finance and Publisher of the Goldfix Substack, for a discussion on polticis and recent global buying patterns particulary in China. Specifically the significant 'Chinese whale', Zhang Kai Futures. Despite public purchases, China's government has also bought gold clandestinely through other less obvious channels. Goldman Sachs updated projections reveal ongoing gold buying by China, causing market rallies and awareness.
Vince explores Exchange for Physicals (EFPs) and premium spreads in bullion banks, discussing tariff anxiety's potential impact on global physical metal flows. The EFP mechanism links London's physical market to New York's financial center, but tariffs may influence production countries and traders' choices.
Gold prices are expected to reach new all-time highs soon. Vince touches on tariffs' primary impact on silver in the U.S., as a significant importer compared to its gold production.
Furthermore, they discuss America's potential need to become a manufacturing economy again and Trump's plans involving factories, jobs, and exports. The challenge lies in financing this project with China no longer buying U.S. debt. Trump proposes reducing the deficit through energy cost reductions and weakening the dollar through tariffs, but that approach could lead to inflation and deficit issues.
Vince and Tom discuss potential changes in government funding, specifically regarding income taxes versus tariffs. Trump intends to negotiate with other countries using tariffs as leverage for domestic job creation and foreign investment. Vince emphasizes the importance of addressing economic conflicts to prevent escalation into full-blown conflicts.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - China's Gold Whale12:38 - EFP Premiums & Spread25:00 - Supply & Net Imports28:24 - Silver Prices??34:48 - Manufacturing USA43:38 - Driving Dollar Lower47:00 - Tariffs & Income Tax54:54 - Historic Analogies58:03 - Economic World War1:00:47 - Tensions & Risks1:02:40 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
China's government buys gold publicly and clandestinely through various back channels, including commercial banks and SAFE.
Tariffs could significantly impact physical metal flows by influencing where silver is sourced and it's country of origin.
Trump plans to revive American manufacturing through tariffs and changes in income tax.
Guest Links:Website: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://x.com/SorenthekLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://x.com/boobsbullion
Vince Lanci, a seasoned finance professional, has served as Managing Partner at Echobay Partners LLC since 2008. His expertise spans over three decades in metals trading, option analysis, and technology development.
In recent years, Mr. Lanci's insights have been sought after by industry legends. He was invited to be a resident expert on precious metals and option analysis for Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project. In 2017, he co-authored a paper on Energy Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi at the University of Connecticut.
Prior to his current role, from 2004 to 2008, Mr. Lanci served as Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC. During this tenure, he managed the long-short and volatility arbitrage portfolios for the parent Limited Partnership fund.
From 1993 to 2003, Mr. Lanci was the proprietor of Berard Capital LLC, where he led a team of option marketmakers. His earlier career included stints at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff from 1987 to 1993, providing him with a solid foundation in finance.
In 2000, Mr. Lanci co-founded Whentech (originally named Upperhand Technologies LLC) with David Wender. As chief architect of the "Pit-Trader" user interface logic, he played a pivotal role in the company's inception.
Mr. Lanci's thought leadership extends beyond his professional engagements. -
Tom welcomes back Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research at GoldMoney to discuss his insights into the silver market and its relationship with gold prices. He suggests that despite a seemingly undersupplied market, the price disparity between gold and silver does not reflect this reality. Macleod anticipates a significant shift in investor behavior once patience runs thin among those who have already bought into gold but yet to enter the silver market. The role of foreign investors, particularly central banks, in driving gold prices is highlighted. Macleod also emphasizes the importance of understanding the impact of the ongoing credit bubble on financial markets and encourages listeners to consider reducing their exposure to credit.
Alasdair expresses his views on Donald Trump's impact on gold prices, citing increased foreign demand due to Trump's status as an inflationist and his executive orders. However, concerns over tariffs and potential economic repercussions remain. Macleod also touches upon historical examples of tariffs and interest rates and their relationship with an economy's purchasing power. He emphasizes the importance of understanding this connection for investors during the upcoming credit bubble.
Throughout the conversation, Alasdair highlights the importance of considering global economic trends and various factors influencing gold and silver prices. He also discusses the role of speculators versus central banks in driving these markets and the potential for a significant shift once investor sentiment changes.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Trump & Macro Picture10:30 - Trump Inflationist15:26 - Strong Dollar Impact19:24 - Debt, Yields, & Economy26:18 - Global Bubbles & Dollar33:04 - Gold Industry & ETFs36:47 - Speculators & Price39:52 - Tariffs & C.B. Buying?41:49 - Silvers Underperformance49:05 - Tariffs & Consequences50:16 - Silver Supply Outcomes?56:06 - Biggest Bubble & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Alasdair Macleod predicts a shift in investor behavior towards silver due to gold price disparity.
Foreign investors, particularly central banks, influence gold prices significantly.
Macleod emphasizes understanding the impact of credit bubble and reducing exposure to it.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacleodFinanceSubstack: https://substack.com/@macleodfinanceWebsite: https://goldmoney.comResearch: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/
Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money thru demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist.
Alasdair started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm.
Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.
For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman's terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences. -
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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In this episode, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Coleman during Trump's second term inauguration when markets are closed. Bob discusses significant developments concerning Exchange for Physical Premiums (EFPs) in precious metals markets. The increasing EFP premiums stem from tariff concerns since Trump's campaign days, causing New York futures selling and London physical buying, creating a spread between the spot price and futures price. Trump's rhetoric on fair trade and potential tariffs could impact the 'product of origin', potentially affecting short positions expecting delivery to exchanges and could lead to major losses.
Bob also touches upon the lack of retail interest in gold and silver markets despite their proximity to all-time highs due to changing consumer demographics, unregulated industry practices, and misleading sales tactics. He further discusses potential implications of tariffs on precious metals markets and the shift towards physical metal becoming a more price-dominant theme.
Additionally, they explore the impact of investor behavior and supply constraints on platinum and potential implications of the U.S. administration's involvement in cryptocurrencies. The conversation also highlights increasing demand for precious metals during the Democratic administrations due to concerns over spending and taxes, potential effects of tariffs on the financial system and gold market, volatility in the economy, and central banks' actions as significant themes for 2025, and the possibility of creating stablecoins backed by precious metals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Trump, Trade & EFP5:22 - Tariffs & Origins10:28 - 50+ Year EFP Chart17:30 - EFP Premiums & Covid20:14 - Retail Precious Metals25:45 - Gold & Silver EFP?29:15 - Platinum Markets33:18 - Metals Vs. Meme Coins37:10 - Crypto Credibility39:37 - Monetary Restraint44:55 - 2024 Physical Demand47:13 - U.S. Tariffs & C.B. Gold50:07 - Uncertainties & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Tariffs could drive up EFP premiums in the precious metals market, leading to significant losses and tightened liquidity.
Changing consumer demographics, industry practices, and sales tactics decreased retail interest in gold and silver markets despite high prices.
Potential tariffs, investor behavior, supply constraints, and U.S. involvement in cryptocurrencies could influence metals markets and trends for 2025.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/Presentation: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/blog/deciphering-the-complex-world-of-precious-metal-derivatives-ucits-and-the-shift-from-physical-to-paper-gold-silver
Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security. -
Tom welcomes back Mel Mattison to discuss the economic implications of the new administration under Trump's second term. He expresses skepticism towards government-released data such as CPI numbers and raises concerns about rising inflation and interest rates due to massive deficit spending and debt refinancing. Mel estimates approximately seven to eight trillion dollars will be issued this year for these purposes, with uncertainty surrounding who will buy all this debt. He suggests real inflation numbers may be higher than reported, potentially leading to significant increases in interest rates. The U.S., with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120%, faces a major concern regarding unsustainable levels of interest expenses.
Mel shares his concerns about the historical parallels between the current high debt-to-GDP ratio and that of the post-World War II era, when reductions in debt came from a combination of surprise inflation and interest rate manipulations. The need for fiscal sustainability is discussed, with maintaining a 3% deficit to GDP ratio suggested. However, achieving this through cuts alone is considered unrealistic due to the significant role government spending plays in the economy.
The possibility of a debt reset under new Treasury Secretary Scott Besson is explored, with the need for independence from China's supply chains and essential goods emphasized due to global security competition. The potential for gold and Bitcoin as neutral reserve assets is proposed, along with revaluing gold certificates held by the Federal Reserve and a move towards these assets to lead to significant increases in value.
Mel discusses Bitcoin potentially decoupling from risk assets like QQQ this year due to increasing institutional adoption. Potential consequences of a global debt crisis include a revaluation of currencies through gold or Bitcoin, and economic wartime goals setting the stage for inflationary impulses to return. The need for controlling interest rates and addressing inflation is emphasized, with potential consequences including debt repression, a gold certificate revaluation, and the promotion of stablecoins. Mel predicts a significant crisis leading to market pullbacks and recoveries, while acknowledging the urgency to tackle deficit issues due to their increasing impact on tax receipts and interest expenses.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Economic Strength6:20 - U.S. Debt Holders11:33 - Debt & GDP Extremes15:20 - DOGE Cuts & Deficits21:18 - Debt Reset & BRICS28:08 - Gold Cert. Valuations31:43 - BTC & Gold Potential35:53 - Global Debt & Reserves39:16 - Tariffs Purpose & Trump42:50 - Inflation & Oil Trends46:56 - Trump Power Plays51:34 - Equity Markets Outlook56:35 - Jeffrey Gundlach59:13 - 2025 Possibilities1:01:23 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://www.MelMattison.comTwitter: https://x.com/MelMattison1LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/melmattison/
Mel Mattison is a writer, investor, and financial services veteran. Leveraging over twenty years’ experience in the realm of high finance, he brings real-world authenticity to his fictional narratives. Mel combines this insider knowledge with a critical eye toward the economic forces that shape all our lives. With a knack for deconstructing jargon and making the complex understandable, he sheds light on the sometimes dark and confusing corners of finance. Mel holds an MBA from Duke University and studied creative writing at Loyola University Chicago. His recent novel, Quoz: A Financial Thriller, delivers an epic ride packed with action, intrigue, and a healthy dose of economic realism. -
Tom Bodrovics hosts both Bob Thompson from Raymond James and Larry McDonald, creator of the Bear Traps Report, for a discussion on inflation trends in the G7 economies. They emphasize the unprecedented $16 trillion debt increase since 2008 due to fiscal and monetary responses to crises, which has led to significant inflationary pressures, particularly in energy costs. They argue that the market's response is putting pressure on long-term bonds and the US currency, potentially requiring a hard asset tie for stability.
They also discuss the implications of a strong US dollar for Trump's economic goals, with some factions favoring a weaker dollar. A strong dollar negatively affects U.S. manufacturing exports, hurts companies with sales outside the United States, and forces the Fed to buy bonds, potentially leading to inflation and an economy weakening.
Central banks are increasing their gold purchases and shifting away from US treasuries due to sanctions and mistrust in the US government, which could negatively impact the dollar's strength. Gold stocks have underperformed the S&P 500, but may offer asymmetrical returns as interest rates remain low and inflation normalizes at a higher level.
They discuss historical gold investing regimes and the transition back towards the one where real rates are favorable for gold. They emphasize the importance of recognizing trends, being ahead of the power curve, and investing accordingly. The possibility of the Federal Reserve's inflation target shifting towards 3% is discussed, which could benefit certain investment portfolios in sectors like industrial, metals, materials, oil, and gas.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Fed & Inflation10:18 - Financial Conditions?13:13 - Misplaced Optimism?18:13 - Strong Dollar & Trump?24:56 - C.B. Gold Buying31:30 - Sectors & Momentum34:30 - Entry Points & Markets36:37 - Bull Markets42:03 - Strong/Weak Bull42:54 - Energy Demand & Silver49:03 - Rates & Fed Targets52:30 - Stocks Vs Commodities55:17 - Mining Clock Cycle57:18 - Concluding Thoughts1:01:13 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Unprecedented debt increase contributes to inflationary pressures, particularly in energy costs.
Strong US dollar negatively impacts U.S. manufacturing exports and forces Fed bond buying.
Gold stocks offer asymmetrical returns as interest rates remain low and inflation normalizes.
Bob Thompson Links:Twitter: https://x.com/bobthompsonrjWebsite: https://www.raymondjames.ca/Website: https://bobthompson.ca
When Bob Thompson started university, he thought he was headed towards a career in medicine. He graduated from Simon Fraser University with a Bachelor of Science (BSc), but with his family facing financial adversity, achieving financial security became first an interest and then a passion. Bob is now a Certified Investment Manager and Accredited Investment Fiduciary professional with more than 20 years of experience in the financial services industry.
Over the course of his career, Bob has established himself as a respected portfolio manager and one of Canada's leading authorities on customized investments. With an in-depth knowledge and scientific approach to financial markets, Bob and his team help institutions and select clients to meet their specialized financial goals.
He has won numerous awards for portfolio management, and has established himself as a sought after media resource and industry speaker. He is the author of Stock Market Superstars: Secrets of Canada's Top Stock Pickers, a "must-read" for both investors and portfolio managers. His perspective and insights into markets have been featured in Maclean's, the Globe and Mail and the Financial Post, and he is a popular guest on Bloomberg Canada, Business News Network and CBC News, among others. Bob is also a frequent guest speaker at international investment conferences on portfolio strategy and in specialized investments. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest Laurent Lequeu to the show. Laurent is an indpendent financial consultant and publisher of the Macro Butler Substack. Togther they delve into macroeconomic themes for the year ahead, focusing primarily on the business cycle and its impact on the US economy. The U.S., currently experiencing an inflationary boom due to low interest rates and increased government spending, is expected to face changes with the incoming presidency of Trump, particularly in terms of tariffs which could shift the economy from a boom phase to possibly an inflationary bust.
Using ratios such as S&P to oil, gold to treasuries, and S&P to gold, they evaluate the current economic status in the U.S. and globally. However, potential tariffs could lead to higher costs for U.S. corporations and lower consumer confidence, impacting equity markets and the overall economy.
Despite being in a potentially stagflationary environment by 2022, the US may face an inflationary bust in 2025, with economic trends like unemployment, manufacturing, and inflationary numbers having global implications. Geopolitical events such as U.S.-Russia relations, tensions in the Middle East, and potential war in Asia could also surprise many.
Laurent suggests investing in equities and gold with a significant portion allocated to physical gold during uncertain economic conditions, while managing cash through short-term investment-grade US dollars bonds. He predicts higher treasury yields this year and suggested looking at commodities' performance relative to gold for potential re-ratings.
Laurent expresses doubts about Bitcoin's utility for preserving wealth and encouraged risk management and minimizing drawdowns for investors in the coming years. They also touch upon China's economic situation, the U.S. remaining the strongest major economy due to energy independence and relative political stability. He suggests investing in sectors like oil and gas, aerospace and defense, and perhaps Canadian gold miners should the regulatory environment improve.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Different Perspective2:28 - U.S. Business Cycle5:30 - Tariff Proposals7:22 - Stagflation & Trends10:28 - Conflicts & Risks14:33 - Powell & Trump18:34 - Fed & Liquidity19:40 - Global Econ. Outlook22:44 - Which Assets When24:52 - Gold Equities?29:00 - Gold & Currencies31:44 - Golden Ratios?33:30 - Uranium & Energy?36:56 - Bitcoin/Gold Ratio40:16 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
US economy facing potential shift from boom to bust due to Trump's tariffs.
Investing in equities, gold, and short-term bonds during uncertain economic times.
US to face stagflationary environment by 2022, possible inflationary burst in 2025.
Guest Links:Substack: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/X: https://x.com/TheMacroButler
Laurent Lequeu, an independent financial consultant based in Singapore, specializes in managing wealth for High-Net-Worth Individuals. With a career spanning West and East, Laurent analyzes the world through the lens of the business cycle and its impact on asset class performance in a multi polar world. He also shares his insights through The Macro Butler, a global macro newsletter launched in January 2024. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Tom Luongo, Tom is the producer of the Gold, Goats and Guns newsletter and blog, editor at Newsmax Ultimate Wealth Report, and contributor to Financial Intelligence Report. The Tom's discuss the significant developments during Trump's first term, judge appointments, and Europe's economic instability.
Luongo reflects on the impact of Trump's appointment of conservative judges and the Democrats' efforts to maintain control in certain jurisdictions. He discusses Europe's economic collapse, with concerns about the Euro's free fall, instability in the UK, US-German bond spreads, and tensions between the US and Russia.
Luongo discusses Trump's options regarding a weaker dollar through protection tariffs, deregulation, and lower cost of capital. He explores market volatility due to central bank interventions and speculates on the implications of inflation, political tensions, and changes in power in Canada.
Regarding oil, Luongo critiques undervalued prices and their impact on various economic aspects. He shares his thoughts on Judy Shelton's idea involving gold as collateral on the yield curve as a potential solution to the country's fiscal crisis.
Luongo encourages listeners to focus on solutions rather than problems and discusses differences in economic policies under Powell-led Federal Reserves between Trump and Harris administrations. He expects that 2025 will be a new type of crazy.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Trumps 2nd Term11:07 - Euro Collapse Effects20:02 - Trump & Weaker Dollar27:56 - Dollar Assets & Markets39:46 - Views On America49:00 - DOGE & Reforming Gov't59:20 - Commodity Nations1:05:35 - Inflation & Trump?1:18:00 - Powell's Actions1:21:18 - Restructuring NATO?1:25:24 - Peak Oil & Incentives1:31:56 - Judy Shelton & Gold1:36:50 - Gold Redemptions?1:44:55 - Derailing Trump1:51:29 - 2025 A New Crazy1:55:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Trump's first term marked by conservative judge appointments influencing the court system.
Europe's economic instability causing concerns, potential impact on US investors, and tensions with Russia.
Tom advocates for America to save money through reducing overseas spending, closing military bases, and accepting losses.
Guest Links:Website: https://tomluongo.meTwitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGunsCornerstone Forum: https://www.showpass.com/cornerstone25/
Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian, and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like ZeroHedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine, and Newsmax Media.
Professionally, he has spent a lot of his waking hours inside various analytic laboratories testing your water and soil for contaminants. He watched an industry be created by government fiat and destroyed in the same manner.
He ran for Florida House once and got 2.7% of the vote on Guy Fawkes Day and says, "I've since grown up a lot."
Then he spent 5+ years solving the puzzle of an electroless Nickel-Boron coating that has intriguing wear-resistance properties. Too bad, the coating was better than the company's business model.
Today, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter, in which he attempts to connect the false narratives of geopolitics to viable long-term investment theses.
As for politics, his position is well-known through his past writings at Lewrockwell.com, Seeking Alpha, and the aforementioned erstwhile blogs.
To sum up: "Individuals are the only people with enough knowledge about their own lives to have a hope of making the right decisions for themselves, and no amount of guidance or central planning can help that process along."
He built the house he lives in and raises goats and milks them.
In short, he says, "I'm a libertarian who distrusts all human organizations larger than a two-handed game of poker."
Lastly, -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back long-term contrarian investor and entrepreneur Simon Mikhailovich for a discussion centered around first principles, focusing on precious metals, commodities, economics, geopolitics, trade, and monetary matters. The conversation begins with the acknowledgement of high levels of uncertainty and complexity, making accurate forecasts challenging.
Mikhailovich distinguishes between speculating on precious metals versus using them as a reserve asset. For speculation, market drivers are pertinent. However, for gold as a reserve asset, its unique property as the only financial asset without a counterparty makes it inversely correlated to confidence and trust in other people's promises.
The conversation touches upon the concept of the fourth turning and where we are in this cycle. Mikhailovich underscores the significance of understanding current problems before predicting future demand for gold. He also discusses how post-World War II arrangements have led to the United States' hegemonic role economically and militarily, and the start of financialization and globalization.
Mikhailovich raises concerns about understated inflation and its potential impact on real economic growth or contraction. He also highlights the lack of clear guidance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell in navigating through uncertain conditions.
They explore the winners and losers of the global economy, with tactical gains for Wall Street investors, technology industries, and certain countries like China. However, working people have been losing due to job outsourcing. Mikhailovich mentions China's growing power and desire for independence from the United States as potential challenges to the current economic order.
The conversation delves into geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with borders becoming less inviolable after World War One and World War Two. The Suez Canal's declining traffic and resulting increased costs serve as an example of inflationary pressures.
Mikhailovich discusses the significance of gold as a financial asset and its increasing demand, particularly from China and other countries, as a response to a loss of confidence in the global financial system. He also mentions the relationship between digital currencies like Bitcoin and the US dollar, suggesting that regulatory actions could impact their independence from the dollar and the broader financial system. Lastly, Simon emphasizes understanding the complexities, considering various data points, focusing on resiliency, and looking at first principles.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Uncertainties & Metals4:22 - The Fourth Turning9:00 - Statistics & Reality17:00 - Wars, Rumors & Borders26:47 - Economic Fragility33:55 - Gold & Eastern Buying38:30 - Trump & U.S. Dollar41:18 - Gold & Confidence50:07 - Trump & Bond Markets53:56 - World Has Changed1:03:02 - Inflation Vs. Panic1:05:20 - Socialism & Competence1:10:02 - A Serious Situation1:13:13 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold as a reserve asset is inversely correlated to confidence in other people's promises.
Understanding current problems before predicting future demand for gold is crucial.
Concerns about understated inflation, lack of clear guidance from Jay Powell, and China's growing power pose challenges.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://c.com/S_MikhailovichWebsite: https://www.bullionreserve.com
Simon A. Mikhailovich is a co-founder, lead manager of The Bullion Reserve, and a director. Mr. Mikhailovich is an entrepreneur and contrarian investor who predicted and profited from the financial crises of 2000 and 2008. Before co-founding TBR in 2014, Mr. Mikhailovich co-founded Eidesis Capital, a special situations investment firm. Between 1998 and 2014, the Eidesis team deployed over $2.5B of capital through special opportunity funds focused on high yield corporate bonds and loans, credit derivatives, distressed CDOs and MBS, and gold. -
Tom welcomes Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, to discuss commodities and their prospects for 2025. McGlone acknowledges challenges such as lower oil and grain prices, harming producers due to a global surplus and decreasing Chinese demand driven by electric vehicle adoption. He anticipates continued declines in industrial metals like copper and explores geopolitical risks, particularly market implications of tensions between the US and adversaries - China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. McGlone suggests gold as a prudent investment due to its performance during volatile markets when stocks and Bitcoin underperform.
McGlone discusses technological advancements and their impact on the economy. He suggests an investment strategy of rotating between gold and Bitcoin at highs and lows based on their current divergence in performance. McGlone expresses concerns over Bitcoin's excessive ETF inflows as a sign of market speculation. Regarding silver, he suggests the silver-gold ratio should be higher based on volatility and historical patterns, with potential implications if China buys silver through ETFs to address economic challenges. Anticipating potential corrections in the US stock market, increased unemployment, and bond yield issues could lead to a different silver-gold ratio.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Commodities in 20253:22 - Global Demand Decline5:08 - U.S. & China Deficits10:38 - Commodities & Tariffs16:34 - Bitcoin 'Indicator'20:22 - Tether & Treasuries26:07 - Gold/Bitcoin Ratio30:28 - ETF Demand & Flows33:16 - Market Correction?37:04 - 2025 Gold Target39:42 - Thoughts on Silver42:25 - Concluding Thoughts43:45 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-mcglone-a8442513/
Mike McGlone is a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional service at BI(GO). Mr. McGlone specializes in the broad investible commodity markets. Mr. McGlone joined Bloomberg in 2016 with over 25 years of futures and commodity trading and investing experience, beginning at the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to joining Bloomberg, he was a head of US research at ETF Securities. Prior to ETF Securities, Mr. McGlone headed the commodity business at S&P Indices. His previous roles included head of futures research at ABN Amro and VP research, analyst, trader, sales at Aubrey G. Lanston / IBJ Futures.
Mr. McGlone has an MBA from DePaul University in Chicago and bachelor's of science and arts degrees from Illinois State University. He is a CFA Charter holder and has earned a Financial Risk Manager designation. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Lobo Tiggre, the author and publisher of TheIndependentSpeculator.com. Lobo leads a team that provides independent due diligence and evaluations for investors, filling a role similar to consumer reports or brokers. He discusses the growth of their business despite industry downturns, reflecting on Rick Rule's advice about building teams and filling different market niches.
The conversation shifts to macroeconomic topics, including the impact of fiscal dominance on monetary policy and potential economic consequences. Lobo shares his past prediction of a U.S. recession in 2024 being incorrect and credits Lynn Alden's fiscal dominance thesis for ongoing deficit spending.
Lobo also explains the implications of soft landings, potential stagflation or reflationary economies, and the role of copper as an economic indicator. He emphasizes the importance of current market trends over ideological theories and due diligence in investment decisions. He shares his highest conviction trades for gold, uranium, and copper for various years, with copper being his top pick for 2025 based on bullish economic context and the favorable supply-demand fundamentals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - The Gang of Rogues5:16 - Macro Picture & Signs9:40 - Fed & Fiscal Dominance14:30 - Voting Harder16:44 - Industrial Recession?23:53 - Inflation Waves32:14 - Dr. Copper?36:57 - Fundamentals Matter?42:00 - Copper Grades & Costs45:45 - Pre Prod. Sweet Spot52:20 - Promises Vs. Reality55:14 - High Conviction Play58:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Lobo's team provides independent investment evaluations, filling a role like consumer reports or brokers.
Macroeconomic topics discussed include fiscal dominance, recession predictions, and economic implications.
Copper is his top pick for 2025 due to bullish economic context and favorable supply-demand fundamentals.
Guest Links:Website: https://independentspeculator.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/duediligenceguyFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/
Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.
Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.
A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back former congressman Dr. Ron Paul from Texas and Liberty Report host to discuss the link between liberty and the economy. Dr. Paul insists that freer societies are more prosperous, advocating for a sound monetary policy as crucial for economic health. He condemns interventionist policies and criticizes the Federal Reserve's manipulation of interest rates, citing 1921 as evidence of a hands-off approach leading to a better recovery from an economic downturn.
During the conversation, Dr. Paul expresses his aspiration to terminate the Federal Reserve and proposes steps towards accomplishing this goal, including repealing the Federal Reserve Act and enforcing the Constitution. Although he acknowledges that the process might not be easy due to the nation's addiction to low-interest rates and easy money, he emphasizes the importance of recognizing inflation as a tax on people's money and advocates for Fed auditing as a path to transparency.
Dr. Paul supports gold-backed bonds as a means of promoting fiscal restraint and offering individuals a valuable savings opportunity. He denounces tariffs as an ill-conceived solution for economic matters, suggesting instead the elimination of burdensome business regulations. Furthermore, Dr. Paul expresses concerns about government information's lack of transparency and encourages citizens to educate themselves on constitutional principles in order to safeguard individual liberties.
Dr. Paul concludes by urging listeners to act upon their convictions and principles, underlining the significance of education in history and economics. He also presents his homeschooling curriculum as a substantial contribution to fostering individual liberty and countering excessive government control over education and healthcare. Ultimately, Dr. Paul underscores the importance of personal accountability and the risks of government intervention in diverse areas.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Economics of Liberty3:24 - Government Efficiency5:00 - Audit & End The Fed12:58 - Shelton & Gold Bonds14:36 - Tariffs & Regulations23:12 - Accurate Information?25:36 - What Should We Do?27:29 - Wrap Up
Guest LinksTwitter: https://x.com/ronpaulWebsite: http://www.ronpaullibertyreport.com/Website: http:///ronpaulinstitute.org
Ron Paul is an American author, physician, and former politician. He was the U.S. Representative for Texas' 14th and 22nd congressional districts. Ron represented the 22nd congressional district from 1976 to 1977 and from 1979 to 1985 and then represented the 14th congressional district, which included Galveston, from 1997 to 2013. On three occasions, he sought the United States presidency: as the Libertarian Party nominee in 1988 and as a candidate in the Republican primaries of 2008 and 2012. Paul is a critic of the federal government's fiscal policies, especially the Federal Reserve and the tax policy, as well as the military-industrial complex and the War on Drugs. Paul has also been a vocal critic of mass surveillance policies such as the USA PATRIOT Act and the NSA surveillance programs. Paul was the first chairman of the conservative PAC Citizens for a Sound Economy and has been characterized as the "intellectual godfather" of the Tea Party movement.
A native of the Pittsburgh suburb of Green Tree, Pennsylvania, Paul is a graduate of Gettysburg College and the Duke University School of Medicine, where he earned his medical degree. He served as a flight surgeon in the U.S. Air Force from 1963 to 1968. In addition, Ron worked as an obstetrician-gynecologist from the 1960s to the 1980s. He became the first Representative in history to serve concurrently with a son or daughter in the Senate when his son, Rand Paul, was elected to the U.S. Senate from Kentucky in 2010.
Paul is a Senior Fellow of the Mises Institute and has been an active writer, publishing on the topics of political and economic theory and publicizing the ideas of econ... -
Tom welcomes back Martin Armstrong from Armstrong Economics for a discussion on the geopolitical landscape and growing frustration with government. Armstrong expresses his belief in an increasing frequency of impactful events due to disillusionment with western governments. Martin delves into the deep state, historical examples of centralized governments leading to instability, and the need for decentralization and respect for individual sovereignty.
Armstrong shares personal experiences and insights about Trump and RFK's anti-war stances. Martin touches upon historical issues, including World War II, communism, the Roman Empire, war causes, and the use of sanctions. Concerns are raised about unsustainable debt systems and their correlation with conflict.
Tom pivots the conversation to Argentina's recent budget surplus, potential application in making cuts to U.S. government waste. Criticisms follow regarding Federal policies to undermine U.S. States and inact gun control.
Predictions for an economic depression by 2032 are shared, with discussions on differences between a recession and a depression, government debt defaults, interconnectedness of economies, and concerns over career politicians. The role of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, and potential implications for the world economy are also discussed.
China and Russia's potential role in a global economic takeover, natural resources, the Ottoman Empire, monetary crises, gold on the yield curve, practical implications, gun control, authoritarianism, and vigilance are among other topics covered.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Many Geopolitical Shifts12:32 - Trump & Ending Conflict27:39 - Cutting Back Gov't36:30 - Civil Unrest Preps46:15 - 2032 - The End Game53:42 - Trump, BRICS, & Dollar1:04:54 - Russia's Resources1:07:58 - Risks & Solutions1:13:50 - Shelton & Gold Bonds1:18:33 - National Guard Concerns1:21:08 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Growing disillusionment with governments leads to increased impactful events: Armstrong emphasizes decentralization and respect for sovereignty to prevent global unrest.
Trump, RFK's anti-war stances discussed: Influence on NATO territories like Afghanistan and Ukraine, personal meetings recounted.
Predictions of economic depression by 2032: Discussions on debt defaults, interconnected economies, and career politicians' concerns.
Guest Links:Website: http://armstrongeconomics.comTwitter: https://x.com/strongeconomicsFacebook: https://facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9
Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.
At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.
Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter.
"In Armstrong's view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia's financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, -
Tom welcomes back Christopher Grove to the show. Chrisopher is President and Director of Commerce Resources and an expert on the rare earth element market.
Despite China's lack of direct involvement in the export halt of germanium, gallium, and antimony to the U.S., it underscores Beijing's dominance in the sector. With the surge in demand for rare earth elements due to technology advancements, particularly permanent magnets for electric vehicles, no new significant producers have emerged since 2011-2012. Prices have reverted to levels last seen then as a result. China's manipulation of input feedstock prices has caused unease and encouraged nations to seek alternative rare earth element sources
The US Department of Defense is investing in vertically integrated supply chains, as shown by the Defense Industrial Base Consortium and the Global Partnership Initiative. China's market dominance remains a concern but presents an opportunity for countries to invest in creating alternative sources. Chris discusses the challenges he faced as CEO of Commerce Resources, including high Canadian mining regulations and the repeal of the uptick rule on the Toronto Stock Exchange. This rule change has led to significant losses for resource companies when they release positive news. Grove plans to list Commerce Resources on the Australian stock exchange in late Q1 or early Q2 of 2025 as a potential solution to address this challenge. The discussion discusses the complexities and challenges of mining in Canada and importance of advocacy efforts to relevant government bodies.
Commerce Resources is completing an updated preliminary economic assessment for its Ashram project and awaiting responses from grant opportunities in Canada and the United States.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Rare Earths & China8:15 - China & Processing11:33 - Western Deregulation?15:50 - Substitution18:59 - Recycling?19:57 - Adapting to China21:34 - Biggest Deposits?25:45 - Personal Challenges29:21 - Miners & Shorting34:52 - Canadian Challenges38:15 - Commerce Resources41:33 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
China's dominance in rare earth elements poses challenges but also opportunities.
No significant new rare earth producers have emerged since 2011-2012.
US Defense Department investing in vertical supply chains to reduce dependence on China.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/commercerescceWebsite: https://commerceresources.com/
Mr. Christopher Grove is President and Director of Commerce Resources since September 2014. Previously, he worked as Corporate Communications for Commerce since 2004 and has significant contacts within the financial communities in North America and Europe. Mr. Grove joined the Commerce Resource board in 2012 and has been active in representing the company abroad. -
Tom Bodrovics engages in a discussion with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, former Fed Insider, and author of the book "Fed Up."
Danielle stresses the importance of monitoring private sector actions, particularly in 2025 due to recent job losses and the significance of shelter inflation's impact on the Federal Reserve. She highlights an upward trend in unemployment rates and potential recession expectations, but does not believe one is necessary. The conversation touches upon central bankers' confidence bubble and its implications for the current economic climate.
They also delve into commercial real estate markets and the potential repercussions on banks and markets. Serious concerns in this sector have led to double defaults on commercial mortgage-backed securities, with regulators putting pressure on credit rating agencies not to downgrade them.
Tom also inquires about other financial burdens, such as rising unemployment, falling house prices, and mortgage delinquencies, which contribute to significant household financial pressures. Canadian banks have announced larger losses but maintain they are contained. Banks attempt to slow charge-offs by modifying loans and extending terms, but this approach has limitations due to the possibility of re-default.
Danielle concludes the conversation by encouraging listeners to maturely face sacrifices and embrace long-term benefits that come with cutting government waste.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - The Economy & Stats2:49 - Unemployment & Layoffs3:38 - Powell & Trump4:37 - Revisions & Recession6:25 - Bankruptcies & Rates8:13 - C.B. Confidence/Hubris11:22 - Dollar Strength & Trump14:57 - Inflation Thoughts16:47 - Housing Confidence19:38 - Commercial Real Estate20:57 - Consumers & Banking22:37 - Safe Assets & Dividends24:14 - Buy Now Pay Later?26:42 - 2025 and Gov't Spending27:49 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Danielle emphasizes investors monitor private sector actions amid job losses, shelter inflation, and potential recession concerns.
Concerns center around Central bankers' 'confidence', commercial real estate risks, and household financial pressures.
DiMartino cautions listeners that Trump cuts may require short to medium term sacrifices to gain long-term benefits.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothSubstack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/Website: https://quillintelligence.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.
DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.
Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.
A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.
Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. -
Tom welcomes back Tim Price from Price Value Partners, to discuss the happenings on the other side of the pond. Price shares concerns over Europe's chaos, comparing it unfavorably to the US under Trump, who he sees as reducing 'woke culture' and neo-Marxist economic policies. He criticizes the media for losing credibility due to untruths and emphasizes the importance of understanding debt economics. Price reflects on his experiences during the exchange rate mechanism crisis and shares skepticism towards state planning, believing it has historically failed. Tim also covers the potential swing from left to right in politics and corruption issues, with Trump's election seen as a possible catalyst for change.
Additionally, gold or non-fiat money is suggested as an alternative to the corrupted monetary system. Price calls for individual empowerment and market efficiencies, criticizes central banks, and advocates for real assets and value investing. He discusses potential implications of Bitcoin reaching new heights and Tether's role in it. Throughout the interview, Tim Price encourages listeners to consider traditional investments like gold and silver, often overlooked despite their attractive valuations compared to the stock market.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - State of Europe2:48 - Trump & Pendulum Swings7:54 - Trends & Growing Debt10:17 - Bond Mkt Predictions15:50 - Endemic Issues20:23 - Milei & Trump22:04 - Global Cuts & Change23:00 - Fixing Corrupt Money26:55 - The Invisible Hand?31:34 - 40-Year Rate Regime37:30 - Too Early & Wrong44:53 - Silvers Potential48:04 - Finding Cheap Assets50:00 - Bitcoin 100k50:55 - Dollar Strength?55:42 - Time & Cheap Assets59:43 - Miners Underperformance1:02:17 - Contraian-isms1:03:07 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Europe's chaos contrasted unfavorably to US under Trump, with concerns over 'woke culture' and neo-Marxist economic policies.
Media narratives criticized for losing credibility due to untruths, stressing importance of understanding debt economics in politics.
Skepticism towards state planning historically, individual empowerment, real assets, value investing promoted.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TimPrice1969Website: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/War On Cash: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/war-on-cash/Articles: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/commentaryTim's Podcast: State of the Markets
BooksTim's Book (Amazon): https://www.amazon.ca/Investing-Through-Looking-Glass-Irrational/dp/0857195360
Book Recommendations:180 Degrees (Amazon): http://tinyurl.com/3vjvpnud
Tim Price has worked in the capital markets for over 30 years. A graduate of Christ Church, Oxford, he spent a decade as a bond specialist before going on to serve as Chief Investment Officer at three separate wealth management firms.
Tim has been shortlisted for five successive years in the UK Private Asset Managers Awards program and was a winner in 2005 in the category of Defensive Investing. He is now co-manager of the VT Price Value Portfolio, a fund investing in Benjamin Graham-style value stocks, and specialist value funds, from around the world. He also co-manages bespoke private client portfolios.
Tim writes for MoneyWeek Magazine and The Spectator, and his weekly commentaries are freely available at the Price Value Partners website. -
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back David Morgan, founder of The Morgan Report, for a discussion centered around their respective recent interviews with Dr. Judy Shelton. They highlight her advocacy for the moral obligation of money and her belief in an honest monetary system that fosters freedom and stability. Morgan believes these views align with his life's work.
The conversation touches upon potential solutions for imposing monetary discipline on the government, including the idea of long-term gold bonds and a bimetallic standard consisting of both gold and silver. The benefits of a bimetallic system include regulation of inflation, but its practicality is questioned due to the current market values of gold and silver.
Morgan also discusses the role of the Federal Reserve in the US monetary system, suggesting that commercial banks create most of the money through loans and advocating for the Treasury to manage monetary policy according to the Constitution. He expresses skepticism towards Central Bank Digital Currencies due to concerns over privacy and potential loss of control by individuals.
David Morgan shares his long-term perspective on investing in silver, emphasizing its importance as a form of financial security and potential return to being a monetary asset. He also discusses the industrial uses of platinum and palladium and expresses his bullish sentiment towards these metals. In conclusion, Morgan advocates for self-reliance, fundamental human values, and focuses on the human spirit despite skepticism towards politics.
David Morgan is working on a documentary called "Silver Sunrise" that explores the monetary system, stress, fear, and control related to money, featuring interviews from renowned figures like G. Edwin Griffin, Ron Paul, Ellen Brown, and Mark Passio, set for release early next year.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - Dr. Judy Shelton6:47 - Silver Standard?10:07 - Fed's Role & Ron Paul13:48 - CBDC Concerns16:35 - Trumps Cabinet Picks22:54 - Silver Expectations25:48 - China, Russia, & India29:06 - Platinum & Palladium31:07 - Sentiment in Metals33:42 - Silver Sunrise Documentary38:15 - Holiday Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://silver-investor.com/Twitter: https://x.com/silverguru22YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/silverguruDocumentary: https://silversunrise.tv
David is a precious metals enthusiast with degrees in finance and engineering, and he originated The Morgan Report. This monthly report covers economic news, the global economy, and substantial capital gains by investing in the Resource Sector. The Model Portfolio includes top-tier, mid-tier, speculative, and special situations.
David considers himself a big-picture macroeconomist whose main job is educating people about honest money and the benefits of a sound financial system.
A dynamic, much-in-demand speaker worldwide, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has interviewed- The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, Investing Rules, and numerous other publications.
As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report, and numerous other publications. -
Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard from Equity Management Associates to discuss the current economic macro picture, including rising inflation and potential economic depression despite subdued market crashes. Lepard expresses skepticism towards government statistics suggesting a lack of real growth since 2008 and warns of risks for investors holding traditional assets due to high stock valuations caused by the Federal Reserve's policies like zero interest rates and quantitative easing.
The conversation then shifts into the importance of liquidity in driving the stock market and the potential implications for the bond market and US federal government spending. Lepard expresses concern about a potential debt doom loop as rising interest rates could result in yield curve control, leading to inflation. They also discuss Trump's economic policies and the potential impact on the U.S. dollar.
They further debate the current state of inflation and its future developments, with Lepard predicting another wave due to increased government spending. Larry discusses the underperformance of miners in both gold and Bitcoin markets and the shift towards gold as a reserve currency due to mistrust in the US dollar's stability. Lastly, Lawrence discusses his upcoming book on monetary issues and the importance of sound money.
Time Stamp Reference0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Inflation Metrics2:25 - Equity Valuations?9:00 - Capital Concentration12:08 - Excessive Liquidity16:19 - Bond Markets & Deficits22:16 - Cutbacks & Obligations24:24 - Trump & Lower Dollar31:10 - Inflation & Fed Q.E.34:28 - Next Rate Print?36:30 - Bitcoin & Tether39:54 - Trump's Goals & Caveats42:39 - Miners Underperformance52:45 - China's Gold Demands56:21 - Silver Supply Picture59:38 - Commodities & Value1:02:48 - Feb. Book & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Lawrence voices skepticism towards official growth figures since 2008, warning of risks for traditional asset holders due to high valuations from Federal Reserve policies.
He also expresses concern over potential debt doom loop from rising interest rates and yield curve control, which could lead to inflation.
The importance of liquidity in driving stock markets, with a shift towards gold as a reserve currency due to mistrust in US dollar's stability.
Guest Links:Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dTWebsite: http://www.ema2.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.
Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Doomberg, author of the Doomberg Substack, for a discussion on the election cycle and the ever expanding geopolitical instability. They discuss the geopolitical implications of the U.S. election, focusing on potential consequences in macroeconomics, energy policy, and peace. Doomberg voices concerns about escalating tensions between the U.S. and Russia during the new administration's transition period, particularly over Ukraine and Syria.
Doomberg also explores Chris Wright's appointment as Energy Secretary under Trump, with enthusiasm for Wright's experience, patriotism, and pro-human energy stance. Our green friend also discusses potential ramifications of the 'drill, baby drill' policy, such as increased energy production, economic growth, lower prices for consumers, and challenges for certain energy companies.
Doomberg emphasizes speaking up against narratives, particularly those related to climate change and carbon emissions, expressing optimism about a potential shift back to the center or right. He discusses Trump's tariff threats towards countries abandoning the use of the US dollar and Putin's actions in creating dollar alternatives.
The uncertain prospects for peace on the Ukraine front are discussed, with doubt about Trump's ability to negotiate a ceasefire and concerns around military solutions instead. He also touches upon Elon Musk and Vivek's roles in the upcoming administration.
The current state of gold mining companies and their undervalued status in the market are discussed, along with the importance of primary energy and artificial intelligence to the U.S. Doomberg concludes by advising listeners to closely monitor political developments both foreign and domestic.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - Tipping Points & Elections5:14 - Unsettling Geopolitics9:53 - Trump Appointments13:03 - Drill Baby Drill18:30 - Trumps Energy Strategy21:09 - Climate/Energy Narratives26:16 - Tariffs, BRICS, & Dollar33:08 - Peace & Ukraine?36:38 - Middle East & Syria?37:41 - DOGE Puzzlement41:15 - Panic in the Swamp42:44 - Markets & the Election45:26 - Gold Fundamentals?47:20 - Miners & Energy Services49:33 - U.S. Energy and A.I.52:17 - The Dollar & Trump?55:06 - (Geo)Political Concerns56:53 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Discussion on election implications, focusing on macroeconomics, energy policy, and peace. Guest voices concerns over U.S.-Russia tensions.
Trump's Energy Secretary appointment, potential consequences of 'drill, baby drill' policy, and climate change narratives.
Peace prospects in Ukraine, Middle East, Elon Musk & Vivek roles, gold mining companies, and U.S. dollar threats.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergTWebsite: https://doomberg.substack.com
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Kevin Muir, the author of the Macro Tourist Newsletter and Substack, and co-host of The Market Huddle. Muir discusses market dynamics since the election, emphasizing that volatility has returned due to Trump's unpredictable tweets and policies, particularly regarding tariffs and trade deficits. He argues for acknowledging these shifts rather than denying them.
Muir explains how reducing the US trade deficit could lead to devaluation of US stocks. He attributes globalization over the past two decades to an increase in global profits, but suggests that Trump's efforts to reverse this trend and bring jobs back to the U.S. might result in higher labor costs and less capital flowing into the U.S. financial markets, potentially leading to lower stock prices for the US market compared to others.
Muir criticizes passive flows as the primary cause of high stock valuations and expresses skepticism about certain high-growth companies trading at such high valuations indefinitely. He also discusses potential implications if Trump successfully eliminates the US trade deficit.
Furthermore, Muir shares his belief that Trump could potentially lead to a weak dollar due to tariffs, devaluation of the dollar, and lower interest rates. He expresses uncertainty about Trump's intentions regarding monetary policy and the Federal Reserve, noting potential opposition.
Muir favors investing in resource stocks of Canadian companies and financial assets due to economic challenges faced by future leaders in Canada. He also criticizes President Trump's deregulation efforts and tax cuts, expressing concern over potential inflation or recession depending on public reaction and private sector credit creation.
Muir emphasizes the importance of considering gold trading from a long-term strategic perspective with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) being the most important player due to their vast US dollar reserves and increasing diversification into gold for safety reasons. He advises traders to adopt a similar approach and not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations or technical analysis. Gold may ultimately be chased at the end of the accumulation process, according to Muir.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:03 - Volatility & Election8:16 - Trade Deficits & Equities13:50 - Valuation Drivers22:29 - Rates & the Dollar30:24 - The Fed Vs. Trump36:17 - Recession Forecasts?37:42 - Japanese Yen40:23 - The Canadian Loonies50:12 - Managing Expectations57:04 - Change & Openmindedness1:00:41 - China's Gold Reserves1:06:10 - Golden Fundamentals1:11:00 - Outlook For Miners1:15:04 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Volatility back in markets due to Trump's unpredictable policies on tariffs and trade deficits.
Reducing the US trade deficit could lead to devaluation in US equities.
Trump's actions might result in a weak dollar, lower interest rates, and potential monetary policy opposition from the Federal Reserve.
Guest Links:Email for Sample Letters: [email protected]: https://posts.themacrotourist.comWebsite: https://themacrotourist.comPodcast: https://markethuddle.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevinmuir
Kevin Muir started as an institutional equity derivative trader for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. In 2000, Kevin decided that bank-life wasn't for him, so he traded his own account for the next two decades. Along the way, he started writing the MacroTourist newsletter, which he describes as an "almost daily" letter about the markets that still manages to have fun. The MacroTourist newsletter attempts to bring a unique take on a variety of different financial topics. Kevin's tagline is, "All I Bring to the Party is 25 Years of Mistakes."
Kevin Muir is a CFA and a graduate of the University of Toronto economics program. -
Tom welcomes back Chris Vermeulen, the founder of The Technical Traders, to discuss market trends post-election and the impact of the looming economic debt situation. According to Chris, the small business sector has seen significant growth since Trump's win, as indicated by the Russell 2000's jump. However, he believes that the end of the economic cycle is near and advises investors to consider defensive assets like gold and utilities due to market uncertainty. Chris identifies the current market stage as a potential topping phase, with signs such as resistance levels in gold and energy stocks.Chris highlights the challenges facing the economy, including an expensive housing market, rising unemployment, and struggling business sales in the S&P 500. Delinquencies for credit cards and commercial real estate mortgages are increasing, signaling a potential looming financial reset. The nervousness within the market is evident through strong performances of the U.S. dollar and gold as safe havens, with the New York Stock Exchange experiencing distribution selling and institutions unloading large shares.Despite a bullish stance on equities, Chris suggests investing in bonds, the dollar, or cash during market volatility before transitioning to an inverse ETF during a potential bear market. He is excited about Bitcoin's potential upward movement, predicting price targets using Fibonacci extensions and technical analysis, but remains skeptical of it as a long-term investment due to its volatile nature.Chris expresses his concerns about gold from a cyclical standpoint, acknowledging that it has reached a significant resistance level, which is part of a 15-year cycle pattern. He suggests that the measured move is complete and that gold might consolidate before potentially moving up to around $3000. Chris emphasizes this doesn't mean a downward trend but rather a pause in the uptrend.Chris also believes that the Russell 2000, representing small caps in the US, serves as an indicator of when money might move out of riskier stocks into safe-havens like gold and the dollar. He anticipates gold will resume its defensive role once the stock market starts to show weakness, making it an attractive investment option again.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Elections & Markets3:22 - When the Music Stops10:40 - Nervous Markets13:11 - S&P Order Book15:06 - Trump & Dollar Scenarios19:03 - Rate Cuts & Recessions20:47 - Overall Trends & ETFs22:54 - Bitcoin Chart28:00 - Gold Technicals31:41 - Overbought/Sold & Gold34:46 - Silver Thoughts36:05 - Next Crisis & Capital38:19 - Bubbles & Buy The Dip?42:36 - Market Stages & Strategy44:33 - Oil Market Concerns51:14 - 2025 Expectations52:40 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeChris Vermeulen anticipates market uncertainty due to economic debt situation; advises defensive assets like gold and utilities.He identifies signs of a potential topping phase, including resistance levels in gold and energy stocks.Despite his bullish stance on equities, he suggests investing in bonds, the dollar, or cash during market volatility.Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheTechTradersWebsite: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/Chris Vermeulen is the Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. Chris has been involved in the markets since 1997. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author.Years of research, trading, and helping individual traders worldwide have taught him that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing. They struggle to execute trades systematically for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders, and his mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense,
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