Afleveringen
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Good Afternoon,
an extra long pod today talking about the trade war, tariffs and outcomes thereof.
The chart for manufacturing share of employment that gets a mention:
have a great week ahead,
Leonid
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Good evening,
A new episode focusing on what worked and what didn’t work in the first quarter of 2025.
We talked about the index performances as well as what to expect in 2Q25. This is the list we used.
And here’s the link to the Battery piece:
Have a great week,
Leonid
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Good Evening,
It seemed appropriate to address some of the themes we discussed in the Weekend notes.
Next big theme is Robotics - very excited for that, do join in if you share our excitement.
Serious about Asia investing? Your process needs more Panda. We full appreciate that for some this is not enough and you’d like a more personalised service that will help get results in China and Asia. Fret not, instead see what we offer here, and connect with us today or message us directly.
I do hope this helps to explain what we’re thinking about here looking out to 2Q25 and beyond.
Have a great week,
Leonid
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Good Evening,
This week’s episode is short, but to the point. We’re addressing the issues that have been raised about the Consumption Action Plan.
Please read the main post on the subject.
Have a great one,
Leonid
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Good Evening,
As is customary a Monday evening musing on the events that are moving the China markets.
The full preview can be found here.
Check out the China Internet Write ups here:
* Alibaba
* Baidu
* Tencent
Do join us for more!
Also, here is the Xi, the champion of businesses article:
http://www.xinhuanet.com/mrdx/20250303/0b05c2ae25754afb99f905dbe948f88b/c.html (do use the translation button if you, like me, are linguistically disadvantaged)
Have a great week ahead,
Leonid
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Good Evening,
This is the final piece of content (sorry) to do with $BABA for the foreseeable future, and it felt important to get out a final verdict on it, especially in the context of today’s negative move in the price.
Here’s the original piece if you’ve missed it:
As usual I encourage everyone to subscribe to the full version of the blog. To be clear the presentation is made available for the premium subscribers only. Do reach out if you want it.
That’s all from me, have a great week ahead!
Leonid
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Good evening,
here are the pictures mentioned:
(a) the one on Short interest courtesy of SubuTrade
(b) the seating plan courtesy of Hutong Research
As usual, if the topics discussed are of interest to you, do consider subscribing.
Have a great week ahead,
Leonid
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Good Evening,
the BYD video I referenced is available at
It is available in three levels:
• Level C for BYD cars (simpler)
• Level B for Denza, Leopard, and BYD flagship cars (medium)
• Level A for Yangwang (top level)
The level is not assigned based on rank; more expensive cars have more advanced autopilot equipment.
In the video, the U9 demonstrates Level A.
The BYD Chairman stated that they have the largest automotive cloud database in China.
He also mentioned that over the next 3 years, intelligent driving will become an indispensable option when purchasing a car.
have a good one,
Leonid
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Good Evening,
The pieces mentioned:
Have a Great Week ahead,
Leonid
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We are talking about DeepSeek and fallout from it, not a lot of structure other than that.
The coal piece is here.
And once again - happy Chinese New Year to those celebrating!
The related promotion of -28.8% for life Is not up and running - no need to do anything it will be applied automatically.
Have a goo week and we will return with the Solar/Wind piece later in the week,
Leonid
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Trump 2.0: The Two Whatevers
* Whatever the US does is constrained by debt interest payments.
* The growing burden of servicing national debt limits fiscal flexibility. This means any policy decisions will be heavily influenced by financial constraints, including rising interest rates and ballooning liabilities.
* Whatever the US does must weaken the USD and lead to higher inflation amid lower rates.
* A weaker dollar and inflation are part of the necessary adjustments to manage the economic exit strategy. Lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper, but they also contribute to inflationary pressures, which could soften the blow of these transitions.
Xi in 2025: The Two Whatevers
* Whatever China does, its biggest undeveloped resource is its domestic market.
* China’s future growth lies in tapping into its vast internal consumer base. Efforts to stimulate domestic consumption and reduce reliance on exports will be key to its economic evolution.
* Whatever China does, all paths lead to stimulus.
* Economic growth will require increased government spending and targeted stimulus efforts. This could include infrastructure investments, incentives for innovation, and measures to boost consumer spending.
The Intersection
At the intersection of these strategies, we see:
* China’s currency rising and its trade surplus falling.
* As China’s economy shifts toward domestic growth and stimulus, its currency will likely strengthen, reducing its reliance on trade surpluses.
* A weaker USD and falling trade deficits in the US.
* The US will face downward pressure on the dollar as it adjusts its economic policies to address debt and inflationary challenges.
While these trajectories suggest potential cooperation, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. Both sides aim for a win-win outcome, but obstacles and setbacks are inevitable.
Case Study: The Chip Ban
* Costs for the US: The decision to ban chip technology transfers has spurred competition. In the long run, this could lead to the emergence of alternative tech ecosystems, possibly with unique advantages. However, this outcome is uncertain and will take time to materialize.
* Benefits for the US: Currently, Chinese semiconductor capabilities lag behind. The ban gives the US a temporary advantage by slowing China’s progress in advanced tech.
* The Dilemma: The immediate effects of the chip ban are clear, but the long-term implications are not. This gamble reflects the challenge of balancing short-term gains with uncertain future outcomes.
Broader Implications: The Matrix of Whatever
* Both nations face temptations to prioritize immediate benefits (“cheat” the system) over long-term goals. Yet, the structural forces—debt constraints, domestic market potential, and global competition—are too powerful to ignore.
* The challenge lies in navigating these complex dynamics without losing sight of the bigger picture. If managed well, these pressures could align to create opportunities for mutual benefit, even amid competition.
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Unfortunately the live form NY episode was lost to history due to poor audio, so I re-recorded some of it, as well as provided and update on the Substack plans for the foreseeable future.
Some Shots from the trip, to make up for the loss.
Do use the comments to leave preferences for the industry focus pre-NPC, and dont forget to subscribe to do so.
Regards,
Leonid
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Addressing the development that sent TCEHY US down 10% at one point.
The oil and Gas episode to be recorded in the US on Friday.
Have a good day,
Leonid
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This is an episode addressing some of the questions on the 2025 outlook, see the links below.
Do subscribe to the full version of the blog for all the posts and ideas.
Get full access to Panda Perspectives at leonidmironov.substack.com/subscribe
